Conservation of the Northern Spotted Owl under the Northwest Forest Plan

Abstract:  Development of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) was motivated by concerns about the overharvest of late-seral forests and the effects of intensive forest management on the long-term viability of the Northern Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ). Following several years of intense political and legal debates, the final NWFP was approved in 1994. Even though the plan evolved with a broad ecosystem perspective, it remained anchored in the Spotted Owl reserve design proposed in 1990. Based on a criterion of stable or increasing populations, a decade later it remains unclear whether the enactment of the NWFP has improved the conservation status of Spotted Owls. The results of intensive monitoring of several Spotted Owl populations for over a decade suggest a continuing range-wide decline even though rates of timber harvest have declined dramatically on federal lands. The cause of the decline is difficult to determine because the research needed to establish cause and effect relations has not been done. One plausible hypothesis is that the owl's life history greatly constrains its rate of population growth even when habitat is no longer limiting. Since enactment of the NWFP, new threats have arisen, including the movement of Barred Owls ( S. varia ) into the range of the Spotted Owl, political pressure to increase levels of timber harvest, and recent changes to forest laws that eliminate the requirement to assess the viability of wildlife populations on U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service lands. At this time is appears that Spotted Owl conservation rests critically on continued implementation of the protections afforded by the NWFP and the U.S. Endangered Species Act.     

Overestimation of Fire Risk in the Northern Spotted Owl Recovery Plan

Abstract:  The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's recent recovery plan for one of the most carefully watched threatened species worldwide, the Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina), recommended a major departure in conservation strategies in the northwestern United States. Due to concern about fire, the plan would switch from a reserve to a no-reserve strategy in up to 52% of the owl's range. Fuel treatments (e.g., thinning) at regular intervals also would occur on up to 65–70% of dry forests in this area. Estimations of fire risk, however, were based on less than a decade of data and an anecdotal assessment of a single, large fire. We found that decadal data are inherently too short, given infrequent large fires, to accurately predict fire risk and trends. Rates of high-severity fire, based on remote-sensing data, are far lower than reported in the plan and in comparison with the rate of old-forest recruitment. In addition, over a 22-year period, there has been no increase in the proportion of high-severity fire. Our findings refute the key conclusions of the plan that are the basis for major changes in conservation strategies for the Spotted Owl. The best available science is needed to address these strategies in an adaptive-management framework. From the standpoint of fire risk, there appears to be ample time for research on fire and proposed treatment effects on Spotted Owls before designing extensive management actions or eliminating reserves.     

Relation between Occupancy and Abundance for a Territorial Species,the California Spotted Owl

Land and resource managers often use detection–nondetection surveys to monitor the populations of species that may be affected by factors such as habitat alteration, climate change, and biological invasions. Relative to mark‐recapture studies, using detection–nondetection surveys is more cost‐effective, and recent advances in statistical analyses allow the incorporation of detection probability, covariates, and multiple seasons. We examined the efficacy of using detection–nondetection data (relative to mark‐recapture data) for monitoring population trends of a territorial species, the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). We estimated and compared the finite annual rates of population change (λ_t) and the resulting realized population change (Δ_t) from both occupancy and mark‐recapture data collected over 18 years (1993–2010). We used multiseason, robust‐design occupancy models to estimate that territory occupancy declined during our study (Δ_t = 0.702, 95% CI 0.552–0.852) due to increasing territory extinction rates ( = 0.019 [SE 0.012]; = 0.134 [SE 0.043]) and decreasing colonization rates ( = 0.323 [SE 0.124]; = 0.242 [SE 0.058]). We used Pradel's temporal‐symmetry model for mark‐recapture data to estimate that the population trajectory closely matched the trends in territory occupancy (Δ_t = 0.725, 95% CI 0.445–1.004). Individual survival was constant during our study ( = 0.816 [SE 0.020]; = 0.815 [SE 0.019]), whereas recruitment declined slightly ( = 0.195 [SE 0.032]; = 0.160 [SE 0.023]). Thus, we concluded that detection–nondetection data can provide reliable inferences on population trends, especially when funds preclude more intensive mark‐recapture studies. Relación entre Ocupación y Abundancia en una Especie Territorial, el Búho Moteado de California     

The Importance of Being Spatial (and Reserved): Assessing Northern Spotted Owl Habitat Relationships with Hierarchical Bayesian Models

Abstract:  Regional conservation planning increasingly draws on habitat suitability models to support decisions regarding land allocation and management. Nevertheless, statistical techniques commonly used for developing such models may give misleading results because they fail to account for 3 factors common in data sets of species distribution: spatial autocorrelation, the large number of sites where the species is absent (zero inflation), and uneven survey effort. We used spatial autoregressive models fit with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to assess the relationship between older coniferous forest and the abundance of Northern Spotted Owl nest and activity sites throughout the species' range. The spatial random-effect term incorporated in the autoregressive models successfully accounted for zero inflation and reduced the effect of survey bias on estimates of species–habitat associations. Our results support the hypothesis that the relationship between owl distribution and older forest varies with latitude. A quadratic relationship between owl abundance and older forest was evident in the southern portion of the range, and a pseudothreshold relationship was evident in the northern portion of the range. Our results suggest that proposed changes to the network of owl habitat reserves would reduce the proportion of the population protected by up to one-third, and that proposed guidelines for forest management within reserves underestimate the proportion of older forest associated with maximum owl abundance and inappropriately generalize threshold relationships among subregions. Bayesian spatial models can greatly enhance the utility of habitat analysis for conservation planning because they add the statistical flexibility necessary for analyzing regional survey data while retaining the interpretability of simpler models.     

Effectiveness of a Regional Corridor in Connecting Two Florida Black Bear Populations

Abstract:  Corridors may mitigate the adverse effects of habitat fragmentation by restoring or maintaining connectivity between disjunct populations. The efficacy of corridors for large carnivores, however, has rarely been evaluated objectively. We used noninvasive sampling, microsatellite analysis, and population assignment tests to evaluate the effectiveness of a regional corridor in connecting two Florida black bear ( Ursus americanus floridanus ) populations (Osceola and Ocala). Bear movement was predominantly unidirectional, with a limited mixing of individuals from the two populations in one area of the corridor. We also documented bears in Osceola that were genetically assigned to Ocala and bears in Osceola that may be offspring from an Osceola-Ocala mating. Our results indicate that the Osceola-Ocala corridor is functional and provides a conduit for gene flow between these populations. Human development, however, may hinder the use of the Osceola-Ocala corridor by bears. The noninvasive sampling and genetic methods we used provide a means of evaluating corridor effectiveness that can help identify linkages necessary for maintaining metapopulation structure and population viability.     

Demography of the California Condor: Implications for Reestablishment

Abstract: The remnant wild population of California Condors ( Gymnogyps californianus ) of the 1980s exhibited a rapid population decline caused by high mortality rates among adult and immature birds. The most prominent mortality factor was lead poisoning resulting from ingestion of bullet fragments in carcasses. Successful captive breeding has allowed many birds to be released to the wild since 1992, based originally on an assumption that exposure to lead could be prevented by food subsidy. The mortality of released birds, however, has generally exceeded levels needed for population stability calculated from simple population models. Collision with overhead wires was the most frequent cause of death in releases before 1994. Lead poisoning again surfaced as a problem starting in 1997 as older birds began feeding on carcasses outside the subsidy program. Although poisonings have been treated successfully by chelation therapy in recaptured birds, food subsidy is proving an ineffective solution to lead exposure. The best long-term solution appears to be either the creation of large reserves where hunting is prohibited or the restriction of hunting to nontoxic ammunition in release areas. Until sources of lead contamination are effectively countered, releases cannot be expected to result in viable populations. In addition, problems involving human-oriented behavior have resulted in the permanent removal of many released birds from the wild. The most promising reduction in human-oriented behavior has been achieved in one release of aversively conditioned, parent-reared birds. Rigorous evaluation of the factors reducing attraction to humans and human structures has been hampered by confounding of techniques in releases. Behavioral problems could be more quickly overcome by adoption of a comprehensive experimental approach.     

Effects of Tourists on Behavior and Demography of Olympic Marmots

Abstract:  If changes in animal behavior resulting from direct human disturbance negatively affect the persistence of a given species or population, then these behavioral changes must necessarily lead to reduced demographic performance. We tested for the effects of human disturbance on Olympic marmots ( Marmota olympus ), a large ground-dwelling squirrel that has disappeared from several areas where recreation levels are high. We assessed the degree to which antipredator and foraging behavior and demographic rates (survival and reproduction) differed between sites with high recreation levels (high use) and those with little or no recreation (low use). Compared with the marmots at low-use sites, marmots at high-use sites displayed significantly reduced responses to human approach, which could be construed as successful accommodation of disturbance or as a decrease in predator awareness. The marmots at high-use sites also looked up more often while foraging, which suggests an increased wariness. Marmots at both types of sites had comparable reproductive and survival rates and were in similar body condition. Until now, the supposition that marmots can adjust their behavior to avoid negative demographic consequences when confronted with heavy tourism has been based on potentially ambiguous behavioral data. Our results support this hypothesis in the case of Olympic marmots and demonstrate the importance of considering demographic data when evaluating the impacts of recreation on animal populations.     

Conservation of Fragmented Populations

In this paper we argue that landscape spatial structure is of central importance in understanding the effects of fragmentation on population survival. Landscape spatial structure is the spatial relationships among habitat patches and the matrix in which they are embedded. Many general models of subdivided populations make the assumptions that (1) all habitat patches are equivalent in size and quality and (2) all local populations (in the patches) are equally accessible by dispersers. Models that gloss over spatial details of landscape structure can be useful for theoretical developments but will almost always be misleading when applied to real-world conservation problems. We show that local extinctions of fragmented populations are common. From this it follows that recolonization of local extinctions is critical for regional survival of fragmented populations. The probability of recolonization depends on (1) spatial relationships among landscape elements used by the population, including habitat patches for breeding and elements of the inter-patch matrix through which dispersers move, (2) dispersal characteristics of the organism of interest, and (3) temporal changes in the landscape structure. For endangered species, which are typically restricted in their dispersal range and in the kinds of habitat through which they can disperse, these factors are of primary importance and must be explicitly considered in management decisions.     

Demography and interannual variability of salp swarms (Thalia democratica)

Swarms of the pelagic tunicate, Thalia democratica, form during spring, but the causes of the large interannual variability in the magnitude of salp swarms are unclear. Changes in asexual reproduction (buds per chain) of T. democratica populations in the coastal waters of south-east Australia (32–35°S) were observed in three austral springs (October 2008–2010). T. democratica abundance was significantly higher in 2008 (1,312 individuals m^?3) than 2009 and 2010 (210 and 92 individuals m^?3, respectively). There was a significant negative relationship (linear regression, r ² = 0.61, F _1,22 = 33.83, P < 0.001) between abundance and asexual reproduction. Similarly, relative growth rates declined with decreasing abundance. Generalised additive mixed modelling showed that T. democratica abundance was significantly positively related to preferred food >2 μm in size (P < 0.05) and negatively related to the proportion of non-salp zooplankton (P < 0.001). Salp swarm magnitude, growth, and asexual reproduction may depend on the abundance of larger phytoplankton (prymnesiophytes and diatoms) and competition with other zooplankton.