Data driven modelling of vertical atmospheric radiation

In the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) there exists a unique set of meteorological measurements consisting of the values of vertical atmospheric levels of beta and gamma radiation. In this paper a stochastic data-driven model based on nonlinear regression and on nonhomogeneous Poisson process is suggested. In the first part of the paper, growth curves were used to establish an appropriate nonlinear regression model. For comparison we considered a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with its intensity based on growth curves. In the second part both approaches were applied to the real data and compared. Computational aspects are briefly discussed as well. The primary goal of this paper is to present an improved understanding of the distribution of environmental radiation as obtained from the measurements of the vertical radioactivity profiles by the radioactivity sonde system.     

Modeling the Pb activity concentration in the lower atmosphere

A worldwide radionuclide network of 80 stations, part of the International Monitoring System, is being setup to monitor compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). The radioactivity sampled at these stations is primarily ²²⁰Rn progenies affecting the detection capability. A model linking the ²²⁰Rn emanation with the sampled ²¹²Pb activity was developed and is presented here. The model and the performed measurements show that the variation of the sampled ²¹²Pb activity can be fully explained by the variation of the local ²²⁰Rn activity concentration.     

Watershed wash-off of atmospherically deposited radionuclides: a review of normalized entrainment coefficients

Radionuclide wash-off is the transport of activity by flowing water over the soil surface (runoff). To complete existing reviews on long-term removal rates, this paper focuses on short-term wash-off fluxes, quantified in the literature by soil-runoff transfer factors called normalized liquid and solid entrainment coefficients (noted K(l)(*), K(s)(*)). Compiled data concerned essentially (137)Cs and (90)Sr wash-off measured under simulated rainfalls on small experimental plots after Chernobyl fallout in the exclusion zone. K(l)(*) and K(s)(*) values span approximately one order of magnitude. Their validity is limited to a season, and their representativeness is limited by restricted studied situations, notably dominant unsoluble forms in fallout, light soils and intense rainfalls. Formulas based on a simplified representation of the soil-runoff system were proposed to generalize the existing values for other conditions. However, their implementation requires a more systematic compilation of the available information, including decisive influence factors such as the fraction of exchangeable form, distribution coefficient, suspended matter enrichment ratio. Entrainment coefficients K(l)(*) and K(s)(*) were mathematically related to the transfer function approach. The proposed relationships proved their complementarity in terms of time support and captured fluctuations. Both approaches should be used in assessments to estimate average fluxes and their variability.     

Radionuclide transfer to freshwater biota species: review of Russian language studies

Around 130 publications reporting studies on radionuclide transfer to freshwater biota species conducted in the former USSR were reviewed to provide the concentration ratio values. None of these studies were available up to now in the English language reviews or publications. The values derived have been compared with the CR values used for freshwater systems in the International reviews. For some radionuclides reviewed in this paper, the data are in good agreement with the mean CR values presented earlier, however for some of them, in particular, for ²⁴¹Am (bivalve molluscs, gastropods and pelagic fish), ⁶⁰Co (gastropods, benthic fish and insect larvae), ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs (benthic fish and zooplankton), the mean values given here are substantially different from those presented earlier. The data reported in this paper for thirty five radionuclides and eleven groups of freshwater species markedly improve the extent of available data for evaluation of radiation impact on freshwater species.     

A holistic approach to Concentration Assessment of hazards in the risk assessment of landfill leachate

Risk assessment is a new research area. The risk assessment research area deals with a wide range of issues other than landfills. Examples of these issues are Radiation, Food Industry, Ecology, Epidemiology, etc. The authors have found that there are generic elements in risk assessment and these elements are independent of the subject areas mentioned above. An important example of these generic elements is the Concentration Assessment of hazards and is equally important from the perspective of landfill risk assessment. Furthermore, in the literature review of landfill risk assessment approaches, no evidence has been discovered of a holistic risk assessment methodology for landfill gas, leachate, or degraded landfill waste. A range of knowledge deficiencies has been found in the literature reviewed to date. One of these deficiencies in knowledge is the lack of a holistic procedure for carrying out Concentration Assessment. From the perspective of landfill leachate, this paper discusses the extent to which the Concentration Assessment of hazards is absent in landfill risk assessment approaches described in the literature reviewed to date, and the elements that should be added to the procedure of the Concentration Assessment in order to enhance the process of risk assessment. The paper also briefly outlines a holistic procedure for the Concentration Assessment and a corresponding computer model for the risk assessment of landfill leachate.     

Effects of radionuclide and rainfall characteristics on field loss parameters of grass

The decrease of foliar activity in vegetation after its initial contamination by foliar deposition is termed “field loss” (Chamberlain, 1970). This work investigated further laboratory data concerning field loss of ¹³⁴Cs, ¹³⁷Cs, ⁸⁵Sr, ¹³³Ba and ^123mTe deposited on grassland (Madoz-Escande et al., 2005). Treatments consisted in rainfall scenarios cumulating 14 mm per week, combining two levels of intensity (8 or 30 mm/h) and two levels of frequency/precocity (late once or early twice-a-week). The time course of field loss was monitored in the edible tissues which were sampled by mowing between the rainfalls. Data were analyzed with an offset exponential loss model which is applicable to chronic contamination and is consistent with approaches adopted in radiological assessment models. Its parameters were estimated by the maximum-likelihood method, and their accuracy was determined by nonparametric boostrap. Radionuclide and rainfall conditions significantly affected the estimated rate (λ₁) and extent (A₁) of field loss. Field loss rate (λ₁) and nonentrainable fraction (1 − A₁) varied by a factor 1.5–3. Cesium was very mobile but persistent. On the contrary Tellerium was found less labile, but eventually was almost completely eliminated. Strontium and Barium had intermediate behaviors. Field loss was more efficient for moderate late once-a-week rainfalls (8 mm/h). Higher rainfall intensity reduced more the radionuclides losses than higher rainfall frequency/precocity. This paper reports statistically relevant effects that should be considered for more realistic assessments.     

Regional-scale application of the decision support system MOIRA-PLUS: an example of assessment of the radiological impact of the Chernobyl accident on the fresh water ecosystem in Italy

The present work illustrates the customisation and application of the decision support system MOIRA-PLUS (a MOdel-based computerised system for management support to Identify optimal remedial strategies for Restoring radionuclide contaminated Aquatic ecosystems and drainage areas) to the fresh water environment in Italy. MOIRA-PLUS is aimed at evaluating the behaviour of radiocaesium and radiostrontium in fresh water ecosystems and at assessing the appropriateness of suitable strategies for the management of contaminated water bodies by the application of multi-attribute analysis techniques. MOIRA-PLUS can be applied to complex networks of lakes, rivers and tributaries and can be straightforwardly customised utilising data and information from readily accessible sources such as official websites provided by scientific or government organisations. The present work shows an application of the decision system to 10 lakes and 18 rivers in Italy contaminated with ¹³⁷Cs of Chernobyl origin. Site-specific values of some aggregated transfer parameters were estimated for the most important Italian lakes. Although high values of fish and water consumptions were hypothesised, very low doses to public from the fresh water pathway following the accident were calculated.     

Sources of anthropogenic radionuclides in the environment: a review

Studies of radionuclides in the environment have entered a new era with the renaissance of nuclear energy and associated fuel reprocessing, geological disposal of high-level nuclear wastes, and concerns about national security with respect to nuclear non-proliferation. This work presents an overview on sources of anthropogenic radionuclides in the environment, as well as a brief discussion of salient geochemical behavior of important radionuclides. We first discuss the following major anthropogenic sources and current developments that have lead, or could potentially contribute, to the radionuclide contamination of the environment: (1) nuclear weapons program; (2) nuclear weapons testing; (3) nuclear power plants; (4) uranium mining and milling; (5) commercial fuel reprocessing; (6) geological repository of high-level nuclear wastes that include radionuclides might be released in the future, and (7) nuclear accidents. Then, we briefly summarize the inventory of radionuclides ⁹⁹Tc and ¹²⁹I, as well as geochemical behavior for radionuclides ⁹⁹Tc, ¹²⁹I, and ²³⁷Np, because of their complex geochemical behavior, long half-lives, and presumably high mobility in the environment; biogeochemical cycling and environment risk assessment must take into account speciation of these redox-sensitive radionuclides.     

Derivation of transfer parameters for use within the ERICA Tool and the default concentration ratios for terrestrial biota

An ability to predict radionuclide activity concentrations in biota is a requirement of any method assessing the exposure of biota to ionising radiation. Within the ERICA Tool fresh weight whole-body activity concentrations in organisms are estimated using concentration ratios (the ratio of the activity concentration in the organism to the activity concentration in an environmental media). This paper describes the methodology used to derive the default terrestrial ecosystem concentration ratio database available within the ERICA Tool and provides details of the provenance of each value for terrestrial reference organisms. As the ERICA Tool considers 13 terrestrial reference organisms and the radioisotopes of 31 elements, a total of 403 concentration ratios were required for terrestrial reference organisms. Of these, 129 could be derived from literature review. The approaches taken for selecting the remaining values are described. These included, for example, assuming values for similar reference organisms and/or biogeochemically similar elements, and various simple modelling approaches.     

Modelling multiple dispersion of radionuclides through the environment

The migration of a contaminant through the environment is the result of the transport by a variety of biotic and abiotic carriers which move according to different dispersion mechanisms. Consequently, the patterns of the distribution of a pollutant in the environment cannot be ever explained on the basis of a single migration process or assuming that the concentrations of contaminant in the different kinds of carriers quickly reach the equilibrium condition. The present work discusses two examples (wash-off from catchments and transport through soils of radionuclides) that clearly demonstrate the inadequacy of “single dispersion” models to predict these patterns. On the contrary, models based on multiple dispersion can successfully simulate the particular features of the above mentioned processes. It was demonstrated that the time behaviour of radionuclide migration rates from catchment of different rivers vary within small ranges as a consequence of multiple dispersion. This result can be useful for the development of generic predictive models.     

Review of dynamical models for external dose calculations based on Monte Carlo simulations in urbanised areas

After an accidental release of radionuclides to the inhabited environment the external gamma irradiation from deposited radioactivity contributes significantly to the radiation exposure of the population for extended periods. For evaluating this exposure pathway, three main model requirements are needed: (i) to calculate the air kerma value per photon emitted per unit source area, based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulations; (ii) to describe the distribution and dynamics of radionuclides on the diverse urban surfaces; and (iii) to combine all these elements in a relevant urban model to calculate the resulting doses according to the actual scenario. This paper provides an overview about the different approaches to calculate photon transport in urban areas and about several dose calculation codes published. Two types of Monte Carlo simulations are presented using the global and the local approaches of photon transport. Moreover, two different philosophies of the dose calculation, the "location factor method" and a combination of relative contamination of surfaces with air kerma values are described. The main features of six codes (ECOSYS, EDEM2M, EXPURT, PARATI, TEMAS, URGENT) are highlighted together with a short model-model features intercomparison.     

Linking biophysical models and public preferences for ecosystem service assessments: a case study for the Southern Rocky Mountains

Through extensive research, ecosystem services have been mapped using both survey-based and biophysical approaches, but comparative mapping of public values and those quantified using models has been lacking. In this paper, we mapped hot and cold spots for perceived and modeled ecosystem services by synthesizing results from a social-values mapping study of residents living near the Pike–San Isabel National Forest (PSI), located in the Southern Rocky Mountains, with corresponding biophysically modeled ecosystem services. Social-value maps for the PSI were developed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services tool, providing statistically modeled continuous value surfaces for 12 value types, including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values. Biophysically modeled maps of carbon sequestration and storage, scenic viewsheds, sediment regulation, and water yield were generated using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services tool. Hotspots for both perceived and modeled services were disproportionately located within the PSI’s wilderness areas. Additionally, we used regression analysis to evaluate spatial relationships between perceived biodiversity and cultural ecosystem services and corresponding biophysical model outputs. Our goal was to determine whether publicly valued locations for aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values relate meaningfully to results from corresponding biophysical ecosystem service models. We found weak relationships between perceived and biophysically modeled services, indicating that public perception of ecosystem service provisioning regions is limited. We believe that biophysical and social approaches to ecosystem service mapping can serve as methodological complements that can advance ecosystem services-based resource management, benefitting resource managers by showing potential locations of synergy or conflict between areas supplying ecosystem services and those valued by the public.     

江苏省环境污染及影响因素区域差异比较研究

江苏省不同区域的环境污染状况差异显著。首先对江苏省三大地区间的环境污染差异进行了简要分析,然后重点对各地区环境污染的经济影响因素进行了对比,结果显示苏南地区的经济增长水平及规模、产业结构、制度及环保科技水平等方面与苏中和苏北地区间差别明显,而且这种差异表现出对环境污染作用机理相反的方向,主要是由江苏省特殊的发展阶段所致,即伴随着经济的快速发展,环境污染呈现恶化趋势。基于以上分析,提出了环保政策创新的途径,以缩小江苏省环境污染区域差异,在维持经济持续增长条件下,使区域环境恶化的局面得到有效控制。     

Transfer parameter values in temperate forest ecosystems: a review

Compared to agricultural lands, forests are complex ecosystems as they can involve diverse plant species associations, several vegetative strata (overstorey, shrubs, herbaceous and other annual plant layer) and multi-layered soil profiles (forest floor, hemi-organic and mineral layers). A high degree of variability is thus generally observed in radionuclide transfers and redistribution patterns in contaminated forests. In the long term, the soil compartment represents the major reservoir of radionuclides which can give rise to long-term plant and hence food contamination. For practical reasons, the contamination of various specific forest products has commonly been quantified using the aggregated transfer factor (T_ag in m² kg⁻¹) which integrates various environmental parameters including soil and plant type, root distribution as well as nature and vertical distribution of the deposits. Long lasting availability of some radionuclides was shown to be the source of much higher transfer in forest ecosystems than in agricultural lands. This study aimed at reviewing the most relevant quantitative information on radionuclide transfers to forest biota including trees, understorey vegetation, mushrooms, berries and game animals. For both radiocaesium and radiostrontium in trees, the order of magnitude of mean T_ag values was 10⁻³ m² kg⁻¹ (dry weight). Tree foliage was usually 2–12 times more contaminated than trunk wood. Maximum contamination of tree components with radiocaesium was associated with (semi-)hydromorphic areas with thick humus layers. The transfer of radionuclides to mushrooms and berries is high, in comparison with foodstuffs grown in agricultural systems. Concerning caesium uptake by mushrooms, the transfer is characterized by a very large variability of T_ag, from 10⁻³ to 10¹ m² kg⁻¹ (dry weight). For berries, typical values are around 0.01–0.1 m² kg⁻¹ (dry weight). Transfer of radioactive caesium to game animals and reindeer and the rate of activity reduction, quantified as an ecological half-life, reflect the soil and pasture conditions at individual locations. Forests in temperate and boreal regions differ with respect to soil type and vegetation, and a faster decline of muscle activity concentrations in deer occurs in the temperate zone. However, in wild boar the caesium activity concentration shows no decline because of its special feeding habits. In the late phase, i.e. at least a few months since the external radionuclide contamination on feed plants has been removed, a T_ag value of 0.01 m² kg⁻¹ (fresh weight) is common for ¹³⁷Cs in the muscles of adult moose and terrestrial birds living in boreal forests, and 0.03 m² kg⁻¹ (fresh weight) for arctic hare. Radiocaesium concentrations in reindeer muscle in winter may exceed the summer content by a factor of more than two, the mean T_ag values for winter ranging from 0.02 to 0.8 m² kg⁻¹ (fresh weight), and in summer from 0.04 to 0.4 m² kg⁻¹. The highest values are found in the year of initial contamination, followed by a gradual reduction. In waterfowl a relatively fast decline in uptake of ¹³⁷Cs has been found, with T_ag values changing from 0.01 to 0.002 m² kg⁻¹ (fresh weight) in the three years after the contaminating event, the rate being determined by the dynamics of ¹³⁷Cs in aquatic ecosystems.     

Revision of deposition and weathering parameters for the ingestion dose module (ECOSYS) of the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems

The ECOSYS model is the ingestion dose model integrated in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. The parameters used in this model have however not been updated in recent years, where the level of knowledge on various environmental processes has increased considerably. A Nordic work group has carried out a series of evaluations of the general validity of current ECOSYS default parameters. This paper specifically discusses the parameter revisions required with respect to the modelling of deposition and natural weathering of contaminants on agricultural crops, to enable the trustworthy prognostic modelling that is essential to ensure justification and optimisation of countermeasure strategies. New modelling approaches are outlined, since it was found that current ECOSYS approaches for deposition and natural weathering could lead to large prognostic errors.     

Radionuclide transfer to fruit in the IAEA TRS 364 Revision

Information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruits was almost absent in the former TRS 364 “Handbook of parameter values for the prediction of radionuclide transfer in temperate environments”. The revision of the Handbook, carried out under the IAEA Programme on Environmental Modelling for RAdiation Safety (EMRAS), takes into account the information generated in the years following the Chernobyl accident and the knowledge produced under the IAEA BIOMASS (Biosphere Modelling and Assessment) Programme in the years 1997–2000. This paper describes the most important processes concerning the behaviour of radionuclides in fruits reported in the IAEA TRS 364 Revision and provides recommendations for research and modelling.     

Dependent competing risks: Bounds for net survival functions with fixed crude survival functions

Using the formulation of latent failure times, the problem of inference on survival time in the presence of competing risks is discussed. Even for the simplified problem where dose and other covariates are fixed, it is not well known that the distributions of the latent failure times are not identifiable from the usual competing risks data. Bounds for the joint survival function and marginal survival functions for the latent failure times are given, and an example illustrates the determination of empirical bounds that estimate the true bounds. In general, the bounds are wide and therefore not very useful. Some alternate approaches are briefly mentioned.     

Approaches for describing and communicating overall uncertainty in toxicity characterizations: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) as a case study

Single point estimates of human health hazard/toxicity values such as a reference dose (RfD) are generally used in chemical hazard and risk assessment programs for assessing potential risks associated with site- or use-specific exposures. The resulting point estimates are often used by risk managers for regulatory decision-making, including standard setting, determination of emission controls, and mitigation of exposures to chemical substances. Risk managers, as well as stakeholders (interested and affected parties), often have limited information regarding assumptions and uncertainty factors in numerical estimates of both hazards and risks. Further, the use of different approaches for addressing uncertainty, which vary in transparency, can lead to a lack of confidence in the scientific underpinning of regulatory decision-making. The overarching goal of this paper, which was developed from an invited participant workshop, is to offer five approaches for presenting toxicity values in a transparent manner in order to improve the understanding, consideration, and informed use of uncertainty by risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. The five approaches for improving the presentation and communication of uncertainty are described using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) as a case study. These approaches will ensure transparency in the documentation, development, and use of toxicity values at EPA, the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR), and other similar assessment programs in the public and private sector. Further empirical testing will help to inform the approaches that will work best for specific audiences and situations.