Integrating Impacts into Adaptation Measures

A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability. The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described.The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies.The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons learned into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change.Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change.The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries.Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP.     

Climatic Implications of Revised IPCC Emissions Scenarios, the Kyoto Protocol and Quantification of Uncertainties

In December 1997, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) adopted the Kyoto Protocol. This paper describes a framework that models the climatic implications of this international agreement, using Monte Carlo simulations and the preliminary Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios (SRES). Emissions scenarios (including intervention scenarios), climate sensitivity, and terrestrial carbon sink are the key sampled model parameters. This framework gives prior probability distributions to these parameters and, using a simple climate model, posterior distributions of global temperature change are determined for the future. Our exercise showed that the Kyoto Protocol's effectiveness will be mostly dependent upon which SRES world evolves. In some worlds the Protocol decreases the warming considerably but in others it is almost irrelevant. We exemplified this approach with a current FCCC issue, namely “hot air”. This modelling framework provides a probabilistic assessment of climate policies, which can be useful for decision-makers involved in global climate change management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Sequential climate decisions under uncertainty: An integrated framework

We develop an integrated framework for evaluating sequential greenhouse gas abatement policies under uncertainty. The analysis integrates information concerning the magnitude, timing, and impacts of climate change with data on the likely effectiveness and cost of possible response options. Reduced-scale representations of the global climate system, drawn from the MIT Integrated Global System Model, form the empirical basis of the analysis. The method is illustrated in application to emissions control policies of the form considered under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.     

Reconciling National and Global Priorities in Adaptation to Climate Change: With an Illustration from Uganda

Many developing countries, especially in Africa, contribute only very small amounts to the world total of greenhouse gas emissions. For them, the reduction of such emissions is not a priority, and the more important issue is to find ways to reduce their vulnerability to the projected climate change which is being imposed upon them largely as a result of emissions from developed countries. This priority does not accord with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reports upon studies in Uganda designed to help in the development of a national adaptation strategy, and addresses the need to reconcile such a strategy with the global priority accorded to mitigation and with national economic development priorities. Some features of a national climate change adaptation strategy are identified and questions are raised about the need for an international regime to facilitate and support adaptation.     

Forest Area in Costa Rica: A Comparative Study of Tropical Forest Cover Estimates over Time

Forest area figures, at a given point in time and for a given region of interest, differ considerably, affecting the calculation of deforestation rates and thus confuse the political and scientific discussion on the state and change of the resource forest. This article discusses the variation of published forest cover figures, using Costa Rica as an example. A list of published figures on the forest cover of Costa Rica from 1940 onwards is analyzed. Reasons for the differences are hypothesized and discussed. These differences are mainly in the definition of forest and forest classes included, in the type of the studies conducted (mapping and/or sampling), in the precision of the estimates, and in the information sources used. It is concluded that part of the problem is inherent in the nature of the resource `forest'. Quality and completeness of the presentation of the forest cover estimates are a clue to their correct understanding and interpretation. The latter point being especially relevant, as forest cover data have both a technical-scientific and a political meaning and are used as relevant arguments in many discussions. In the example of Costa Rica, a general downward trend is observed up to about 1985/1990, whereas after that forest area figures are on the average at a markedly higher level. Some hypotheses for this change in the trend are discussed.     

Selected international efforts to address climate change

Over the past two decades, concern about human-induced climate change has become an increasingly important item on the environmental and political agenda. The signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the adoption of Agenda 21 at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 provided international organizations and the nations of the world with a new focus for climate-related activities. Although there remains considerable scientific uncertainty about the extent, magnitude, and rate of climate change and the impacts of such change, actions to address climate change have been initiated both internationally and nationally. Major international activities include the World Climate Programme, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the United Nations Environment Programme.     

The Biodiversity Crisis and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australia's Forests

If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.     

温室气体排放数据库系统设计与实现

以温度升高为主要特征的气候变化越来越影响到人类的可持续发展,温室气体排放系数的收集与整理对于该研究具有重要意义。文章在充分调研IPCC指南及相关排放系数文献的基础上,对温室气体排放系数进行采集与整理,其中对电力行业排放系数的收集细化到不同技术水平、煤质来源水平和区域水平,并在电力行业排放系数收集的基础上,对其他主要工业行业的温室气体排放系数进行收集,完成了数据库设计与建库工作。主要包括四类数据:"温室气体排放系数数据库"、"活动水平数据库"、"电力行业污染物排放数据库"、"元数据库"。在此基础上设计并开发了数据库软件系统,实现了对温室气体排放系数的统一管理与访问。经实际运行,证明该系统能有效管理温室气体排放系数数据,提供数据的分析应用,为温室气体核算和提高环境监管能力提供科学数据和支撑作用。     

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Bago River Basin,Myanmar

Assessment of land use and climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle is important for basin scale water resources management. This study aims to investigate the potential impacts of land use and climate change on the hydrology of the Bago River Basin in Myanmar. Two scenarios from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) were used to project the future climate of 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Six general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were selected to project the future climate in the basin. An increase of average temperature in the range of 0.7 to 1.5 °C and 0.9 to 2.7 °C was observed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, in future periods. Similarly, average annual precipitation shows a distinct increase in all three periods with the highest increase in 2050s. A well calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the land use and climate change impacts on future stream flows in the basin. It is observed that the impact of climate change on stream flow is higher than the land use change in the near future. The combined impacts of land use and climate change can increase the annual stream flow up to 68 % in the near future. The findings of this study would be beneficial to improve land and water management decisions and in formulating adaptation strategies to reduce the negative impacts, and harness the positive impacts of land use and climate change in the Bago River Basin.     

The Costa Rican Experience with Market Instruments to Mitigate Climate Change and Conserve Biodiversity

Two decades of developing relevant legal and institutional regimes for the sustainable and nondestructive use of natural resources have framed Costa Rica's pioneer approach to mitigate climate change and conserve its rich biological diversity. This policy framework provides an appropriate context for the actual and proposed development of market instruments designed to attract capital investments for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation, and allows the establishment of mechanisms to use those funds to compensate owners for the environmental services provided by their land. As a developing economy. Costa Rica is striving to internalize the benefits from the environmental services it offers, as a cornerstone of its sustainable development strategy.     

A Systems Approach to Biodiversity Conservation Planning

With a recent media-fueled transition from a scientific to a political perspective, biodiversity has become an issue of ethics and ensuing values, beyond its traditional ecological roots. More fundamentally, the traditional perspective of biodiversity is being challenged by the emergence of a post-normal or systems-based approach to science. A systems-based perspective of living systems rests on the central tenets of complexity and uncertainty, and necessitates flexibility, anticipation and adaptation rather than prediction and control in conservation planning and management. What are the implications of this new perspective? This paper examines these challenges in the context of biodiversity conservation planning. The new perspectives of biodiversity are identified and explored, and the emergence of a new ecological context for biodiversity conservation is discussed. From the analysis, the challenges and implications for conservation planning are considered, and a systems-based or post-normal approach to conservation planning and management is proposed. In light of the new perspectives for biodiversity, conservation planning and management approaches should ultimately reflect the essence of living systems: they should be diverse, adaptive, and self-organizing, accepting the ecological realities of change.     

Issues in modeling induced technological change in energy, environmental, and climate policy

This paper addresses the objective of including Induced Technological Change (ITC) in research and policy models of energy, environment, and climate change. Theoretical foundations, fundamentals, and current methodologies for ITC models are reviewed. In addition, limitations and possible extensions to ITC models are explored. Current approaches to energy-environmental modeling that neglect technological characteristics such as heterogeneity, uncertainty, and path-dependence are likely to underestimate both the impact and the lags in the effectiveness of policy options.     

The Need for Scale Sensitive Approaches in Spatially Explicit Land Use Change Modeling

This paper introduces some of the issues that are relevant to the spatially explicit modeling of land use systems. A short overview is given of the ways and means in which a number of different land use change models describe the land use system. Specific attention is given to the empirical modeling approach used in the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) modeling framework. This approach is demonstrated for three case studies in China, Ecuador and the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica. These case-studies illustrate the methodology for multi-scale analysis of land use driving factors and their application in spatially explicit modeling exercises. Model functioning, performance and limitations are discussed. The presented case-studies indicate that empirical modeling results can contribute to a better theoretic imbedding of land use change research in scale sensitive and integrated theories.     

Determination of carbonyls and their sources in three sites of the metropolitan area of Costa Rica,Central America

Ambient levels of carbonyl compounds and their possible sources were studied at three places in the metropolitan area of Costa Rica, including a residential, an industrial, and a commercial downtown area with high vehicular flow, during the periods of April–May and September–December 2009. Fifteen carbonyl compounds were identified in the ambient air, of which acetone was the most abundant carbonyl, followed by formaldehyde and acetaldehyde. Concentrations were highest in rainy season at all sites and lower in dry season. These decreases in concentration are explained by the influences of both photochemical reactions and local meteorological conditions. The strong correlation between C1–C2 and C3 indicated a common origin for these carbonyls. The C1/C2 ratios varied between 0.49 to 1.05, values which can be considered typical of an urban area.     

The Geocybernetic Assessment Matrix (GAM) — A new assessment tool for evaluating the level and nature of sustainability or unsustainability

Evaluating sustainability from EIA-based assessments has been problematic at best. This is due to the use of reductionist and qualitative approaches which is dependent upon the perspective of the assessor(s). Therefore, a more rigorous and holistic approach is required to evaluate sustainability in a more consistent way. In this paper, a matrix-based methodology in order to assess the indicated level and nature of sustainability for any project, policy, indicators, legislation, regulation, or other framework is described. The Geocybernetic Assessment Matrix (GAM) is designed to evaluate the level and nature of sustainability or unsustainability occurring in respect the fundamental and complex geocybernetic paradigms. The GAM method is described in detail in respect to the theory behind it and the methodology. The GAM is then demonstrated using an appropriate case study — Part 1 of the UK Climate Change Act (2008) concerning carbon budgets and targets. The results indicate that the Part 1 of Act may not achieve the desired goals in contributing towards sustainable development through the stated mechanisms for carbon budgets and targets. The paper then discusses the broader context of the GAM with respect to the core themes evident in the development and application of the GAM of: sustainability science; sustainability assessment; application value of the GAM; and future research and development.     

Environmental economics reality check: a case study of the Abanico Medicinal Plant and Organic Agriculture Microenterprise Project

This paper presents a case study of the Abanico Medicinal Plant and Organic Agriculture Microenterprise Project in the Arenal Conservation Area, Costa Rica. Microenterprise is the Sustainable Development and the Women in Development model for gender equity and environment of the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and large non-government organizations, like the World Wildlife Fund-Canada. The authors of this paper argue that debt-for-nature investment in microenterprise and ecological economic models are not distinct from neoclassical economic and development models that created the environmental, social and cultural crises in the first place. This case study shows that the world market accommodates only one model of development: unsustainable export-oriented production based on flexible labour markets, low wages, indebtedness and low cost production. Working standards in those micro-enterprises are eroded due to many factors,including indebtedness. What happened at a national level in non-industrial countries with the international debt crisis is now mirrored in individual indebtedness through microenterprise. Is current development policy creating a new form of indentured servitude? Medicinal plants, prior to commodification, were a source of women's power and upon commodification in international development projects, are the source of their exploitation.     

区域生态系统适应性管理概念、理论框架及其应用研究

论述了生态系统适应性管理基本概念与生态系统适应循环,着重分析了生态系统恢复力范围、抗性、不稳定性与跨尺度影响。生态系统适应循环通常经历入侵、保持、破坏、调整四个阶段,前两个阶段的生态系统演替是可以预测的,而后两个阶段是复杂、难以预测的。文章提出了适应性区域生态系统管理的基本概念,并构建了其理论框架,并以三峡库区小江流域为例,对小江流域景观生态特征、区域生态胁迫进行了详细分析。在此基础上,提出要以水生生态安全为总目标,并围绕这一目标,进行流域各生态系统的恢复力辨识、生态系统适应性循环过程研究,从各系统恢复力属性特征出发,提出了具体的适应性管理方法与模式。     

Resource Use Rates and Efficiency as Indicators of Regional Sustainability: an Examination of Five Countries

We examine trends from 1970 to the mid 1990's of some variables related to development and sustainability for Costa Rica, Korea, Mexico, the Netherlands and the United States: first, by calculating energy and agricultural efficiencies over time, second, by examining the environmental impacts of economic activities, and third, by estimating ecological footprints. We find that many "optimistic" arguments about sustainability have been misleading, and that there is little or no indication that we are becoming any more sustainable or even efficient. Total quality-corrected energy consumption has increased for all five countries and the renewable energy portion is decreasing. The efficiency of turning energy into both agricultural production and GDP has declined for all countries except for the US. In general, there is a remarkable linearity between resource use and economic and agricultural production over all countries and all years, suggesting severe biophysical constraints to sustainable objectives. On the other hand, per capita ecological footprints have decreased somewhat in Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States, while national ecological footprints have tended to remain constant except for Korea. While there has been a reduction of specific pollutants in the United States, some of this has been achieved by exporting heavy manufacturing industries. We conclude that continued population and economic growth in each country is likely to make the achievement of any kind of sustainability increasingly unlikely. Sustainability, if that is desirable, requires a very different approach than what we have undertaken to date.     

On the optimal control of carbon dioxide emissions: an application of FUND

This paper presents the Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND), an integrated assessment model of climate change, and discusses selected results. FUND is a nine‐region model of the world economy and its interactions with climate, running in time steps of one year from 1990 to 2200. The model consists of scenarios for economy and population, which are perturbed by climate change and greenhouse gas emission reduction policy. Each region optimizes its net present welfare. Policy variables are energy and carbon efficiency improvement, and sequestering carbon dioxide in forests. It is found that reducing conventional air pollution is a major reason to abate carbon dioxide emissions. Climate change is an additional reason to abate emissions. Reducing and changing energy use is preferred as an option over sequestering carbon. Under non‐cooperation, free riding as well as assurance behaviour is observed in the model. The scope for joint implementation is limited. Under cooperation, optimal emission abatement is (slightly) higher than under non‐cooperation, but the global coalition is not self‐enforcing while side payments are insufficient. Optimal emission control under non‐cooperation is less than currently discussed under the Framework Convention on Climate Change, but higher than observed in practice. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Policy Characterization of Ecosystem management

This paper provides a comparison of ecosystem management (EM) to the traditional regulatory management approach and outlines the characteristics of EM from a policy perspective, defining the conditions under which this management tool can be successfully implemented. Ecosystem management is a collaborative and integrative tool focused on balancing societal needs, economic growth, and environmental protection to ensure the long-term ecological integrity of a particular ecosystem. The characteristics of this particular tool include: (1) its holistic approach to environmental problems; (2) its integration of values (economic, social, and environmental) through a collaborative, multi-partner, decision making structure; (3) its reliance on science to guide decisions and set boundaries; and (4) its ability to learn from the implementation of decisions (adaptive management). Examples are draw from Environment Canada's various regional ecosystem initiatives.