Energy Resources and Conversion Technologies for the 21st Century

A variety of energy sources will compete to provide the energy services that humans will require over the next 100 years. The balance of these sources will depend upon the availability of fossil fuels and the development of new technologies including renewable energy technologies, and will be one of the keys in projecting greenhouse gas emissions. There is uncertainty about each of the energy sources. With oil, for example, there are two alternate views of future reserves, one that reserves are geologically limited and that supplies will decline within a decade or two, the other that there are enormous quantities of hydrocarbon in the earth’s crust and that reserves are a function of developing technology and price. With solar voltaics, as a second example, there is optimism that the technology will become increasingly competitive, but there is uncertainty about the rate at which costs can come down and about ultimate cost levels. This paper reviews the reserves of fossil fuels and the prospects for nuclear power and the renewables. It also reviews the main energy conversion technologies that are available now or are expected to become increasingly available through time. However, it should be noted that, over a time horizon of 100 years, there may be quite radical changes in both production and conversion technologies that cannot be predicted and it is quite possible for some as yet unheard of technology to be developed and to transform the markets. The paper has been written to aid the development of new scenarios for the emission of greenhouse gases for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.     

Anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx in Asia: emission inventories

The anthropogenic emissions of SO₂ and NO_x for 25 Asian countries east of Afghanistan and Pakistan have been calculated for 1975, 1980, 1986, 1986 and 1987 based on fuel consumption, sulfur content in fuels and emission factors for used fuels in each emission category. The provincial- and regional-based calculations have also been made for China and India. The total SO₂ emissions in these parts of Asia have been calculated to be 18.3 and 29.1 Tg in 1975 and 1987, respectively. The calculated total NO_x emissions were 9.4 and 15.5 Tg in 1975 and 1987, respectively. The SO₂ and NO_x emissions in East Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea and Taiwan) were 23.4 and 10.7 Tg in 1975 and 1987, respectively.     

Global evaluation of the effects of agriculture and water management adaptations on the water-stressed population

Fresh water is one of the most important resources required for human existence, and ensuring its stable supply is a critical issue for sustainable development. The effects of a general set of agriculture and water management adaptations on the size of the world’s water-stressed population were assessed for a specific but consistent scenario on socio-economic development and climate change during the 21st century. To maintain consistency with agricultural land use change, we developed a grid-based water supply–demand model integrated with an agro-land use model and evaluated the water-stressed population using a water withdrawals-to-availability ratio for river basins. Our evaluation shows that, if no adaptation options are implemented, the world’s water-stressed population will increase from 1.8 billion in 2000 to about 3.3 billion in 2050, and then remain fairly constant. The population and economic growth rather than climate change will be dominant factors of this increase. Significant increase in the water-stressed population will occur in regions such as North Africa and the Middle East, India, Other South Asia, China and Southeast Asia. The key adaptation options differ by region, depending on dominant crops, increase in crop demand and so on. For instance, ‘improvement of irrigation efficiency’ and ‘enhancement of reclamation water’ seem to be one of important options to reduce the water stress in Southeast Asia, and North Africa and the Middle East, respectively. The worldwide implementation of adaptation options could decrease the water-stressed population by about 5 % and 7–17 %, relative to the scenario without adaptations, in 2050 and 2100, respectively.     

工业源挥发性有机化合物减排与控制的研究

当前,中国是亚洲地区甚至是全球最大的工业产品制造和消费国家,这就不可避免地导致挥发性有机化合物排放量大幅度上升,但是挥发性有机化合物对人类、动植物以及区域大气环境质量有很大的负面影响,现就以未来最大的工业源挥发性有机化合物为核心,对其减排和控制技术进行分析和探讨,并得出如下结论:对VOCs污染应该积极展开调查和监测;从制定工业VOCs排放标准及打标技术防止新的污染蔓延;发展先进的VOCs污染控制技术来着手治理现状。     

China, the United States and technology cooperation on climate control

The U.S. and China are the world's largest and second largest CO₂ emitters, respectively, and to what extent the U.S. and China get involved in combating global climate change is extremely important both for lowering compliance costs of climate mitigation and adaptation and for moving international climate negotiations forward. While it is unavoidable that China will take on commitments at some specific point of time in the future, this paper has argued that the proposal for joint accession by the U.S. and China is not a way forward. For various reasons, such a proposal is in the U.S. interest, but is not in the interest of China. Given the U.S. political reality and institutional settings on the one hand and China's over-riding concern about economic growth and poverty reduction on the other, the two countries are unlikely to take on emissions caps under an international regime, at least for the time being. Therefore, we need to explore the area where cooperation between the two countries to address climate change seems best. The research, development and deployment of clean technology is the area that is in the best interests of the two countries. The U.S. has adopted a technology-oriented approach to climate issues, and has launched the four multilateral initiatives on technology cooperation and the Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate (APP). China has participated in all these U.S.-led initiatives, and is a partner to the APP. Strengthened technology cooperation between the two countries through these initiatives and the APP has led some tangible benefits. However, it should be pointed out that while technology is a critical ingredient in a climate policy package, efforts such as the APP can only be part of the solution. They alone cannot ensure that best available technologies are always deployed in the marketplace, and that new technologies will roll out at the pace and on the scale that we need. In order to have such technology-oriented approach to play a full role, we do need a coordinated policy framework agreed via the Kyoto Protocol or a follow-up regime or the parent United Nations Framework Convention.     

春季境外生物质燃烧对东亚臭氧污染的影响

目的定量研究境外生物质燃烧对春季东亚地表臭氧浓度的影响。方法利用敏感性分析法与线性加权法,使用全球化学传输模式GEOS-Chem模拟春季全球不同地区生物质燃烧排放对东亚地表臭氧的贡献。结果春季全球生物质燃烧对东亚地表臭氧贡献在1×10~(-9)～5×10~(-9)(按体积计算)之间,其中75%是境外生物质燃烧的贡献。境外生物质燃烧对中国南部的影响比东亚其他区域更大,可达3×10~(-9)。在所有境外源区中,生物质燃烧对东亚地表臭氧影响最大的源区是非洲与东南亚。前者是中国东北部、中国北部、朝韩及日本地区的主要境外贡献区域。后者对中国南部的相对贡献最大。结论春季境外生物质燃烧对东亚地表臭氧的贡献具有一定的空间差异。境外生物质燃烧对东亚空气质量有重要影响。东亚地表臭氧污染治理需要世界各国及区域之间的良好合作。     

New CHP partnerships offering balancing of fluctuating renewable electricity productions

Combined heat and power (CHP) as well as intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) are key elements in future cleaner electricity production systems. This article presents solutions which will integrate fluctuating renewable electricity supplies, such as wind power, into electricity systems using small and medium-sized combined heat and power plants (CHP). Such solutions call for a new organisational setup of partnerships and software tools. The software tools will allow the new partnerships to offer services which are currently only offered by big power plants to electricity markets. The article presents recent results of the development and implementation of such partnerships and focuses on the methodologies and computer tools necessary in order to allow the partnerships to optimise their behaviour on the market. The use of such tools and methodologies makes groups of small CHP plants able to replace large power stations and, at the same time, allows for the integration of a higher share of RES in the electricity supply, resulting in a decrease in both fossil fuels and CO2 emissions.     

个人乘用车用可替代燃料与我国未来的选择

个人乘用车排放量占道路交通运输二氧化碳(CO2)排放量的三分之一。因此,逐步实现其燃料由传统石化燃料汽柴油向新能源转变是交通运输行业低碳减排和绿色发展的重要抓手之一。本文对当前可供个人乘用车使用的4大类新能源即生物燃油、燃料乙醇、氢和电的属性,特别是其CO2减排效果和使用成本进行了分析和对比,并对新能源加注(充电)设施在欧盟和美国的布局战略和实施成果进行了介绍。结合欧美的实践和中国的实际,本文提出了未来个人乘用车用可替代燃油布局的建设,建议我国直接从传统石化汽油跨越至氢和/或电,并将其作为未来个人乘用车的燃料。     

Modern Biomass Conversion Technologies

This article gives an overview of the state-of-the-art of key biomass conversion technologies currently deployed and technologies that may play a key role in the future, including possible linkage to CO₂ capture and sequestration technology (CCS). In doing so, special attention is paid to production of biofuels for the transport sector, because this is likely to become the key emerging market for large-scale sustainable biomass use. Although the actual role of bio-energy will depend on its competitiveness with fossil fuels and on agricultural policies worldwide, it seems realistic to expect that the current contribution of bio-energy of 40–55 EJ per year will increase considerably. A range from 200 to 300 EJ may be observed looking well into this century, making biomass a more important energy supply option than mineral oil today. A key issue for bio-energy is that its use should be modernized to fit into a sustainable development path. Especially promising are the production of electricity via advanced conversion concepts (i.e. gasification and state-of-the-art combustion and co-firing) and modern biomass derived fuels like methanol, hydrogen and ethanol from ligno-cellulosic biomass, which can reach competitive cost levels within 1–2 decades (partly depending on price developments with petroleum). Sugar cane based ethanol production already provides a competitive biofuel production system in tropical regions and further improvements are possible. Flexible energy systems, in which biomass and fossil fuels can be used in combination, could be the backbone for a low risk, low cost and low carbon emission energy supply system for large scale supply of fuels and power and providing a framework for the evolution of large scale biomass raw material supply systems. The gasification route offers special possibilities to combine this with low cost CO₂ capture (and storage), resulting in concepts that are both flexible with respect to primary fuel input as well as product mix and with the possibility of achieving zero or even negative carbon emissions. Prolonged RD&D efforts and biomass market development, consistent policy support and international collaboration are essential to achieve this.     

Linking the emissions trading schemes of Europe and China - Combining climate and energy policy instruments

Both Europe and China have announced targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and renewable energy development. To achieve their emissions targets, Europe has introduced emissions trading scheme (ETS) since 2005 and China has planned to establish a national ETS in 2015. We assess the impact of a joint Europe-China ETS when both climate and energy policy instruments are simulated in a multiregional general equilibrium model. Our results show that a joint ETS markedly increases total carbon emissions from fossil fuels even though global mitigation costs are reduced. Moreover, a joint ETS helps China achieve its renewable energy target, but for Europe, it works opposite. While the renewable energy target does not help Europe achieve additional abatement, the renewable energy target in China reduces mitigation costs and emissions, and increases renewable energy consumption and sales of carbon allowances. Financial transfer through a joint ETS remains marginal compared to China’s demand for renewable energy subsidies. We conclude that as long as an absolute emissions cap is missing in China, a joint ETS is not attractive for mitigation and China’s renewable energy target can reduce emissions.     

东南亚生物质燃烧对我国春季PM2.5质量浓度影响的数值模拟

为研究东南亚生物质燃烧对我国的影响,利用NAQPMS(嵌套网格空气质量预报模式系统)模拟分析了2013年3月我国及东南亚污染物质量浓度分布,以及东南亚国家生物质燃烧对我国ρ(PM_2.5)的贡献. 结果表明:NAQPMS模式可较好地再现ρ(PM_2.5)的时空演变规律. 在我国西南部分地区,东南亚生物质燃烧贡献与当地人为源相当,并且在ρ(PM_2.5)较高时尤为明显. 东南亚生物质燃烧对我国的影响主要有两个路径:第一个路径是缅甸向云南等地的输送,对云南ρ(PM_2.5)的月均贡献达到20 μg/m3(贡献率为30%),是云南本地生物质燃烧贡献的2倍左右,日均贡献甚至可达到34 μg/m3(贡献率为43%),高于我国人为源贡献(28 μg/m3)和贡献率(36%);第二个路径是老挝和越南向云南与广西交界的输送, 对南宁ρ(PM_2.5)的月均贡献为10 μg/m3,日均贡献高值区间为20～40 μg/m3. 我国人为源对东南亚的影响较小,对ρ(PM_2.5)月均贡献率在10%以内,主要集中在越南和东南亚南部沿海城市. 东南亚人为源对我国的影响也较小,ρ(PM_2.5)月均贡献在2 μg/m3以下. 研究显示,东南亚生物质燃烧对我国特别是西南地区产生的影响不可忽视.      

Advances in air pollution control for vessels in China

Vessel emissions have contributed a great deal to air quality deterioration in China. Hence,the Chinese government has promulgated a series of stringent emission regulations. It is in this context that vessel emission control technology research is in full swing. In particular,during the 13th Five-Year Plan, the air pollution control technology of vessels has greatly improved. Vessel emission control has followed two main governance routes: source emission reduction and aftertreatment technology...     

Palm oil and the emission of carbon-based greenhouse gases

The current use of South Asian palm oil as biofuel is far from climate neutral. Dependent on assumptions, losses of biogenic carbon associated with ecosystems, emission of CO₂ due to the use of fossil fuels and the anaerobic conversion of palm oil mill effluent currently correspond in South Asia with an emission of about 2.8–19.7 kg CO₂ equivalent per kg of palm oil. Using oil palm and palm oil processing wastes for the generation of energy and preventing further conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantations by establishing new plantations on non-peaty degraded soils can, however, lead to large cuts in the emission of carbon-based greenhouse gases currently associated with the palm oil lifecycle.     

中国民航业中长期碳排放预测与技术减排潜力分析

基于LEAP构建自下而上的中国民航业能源系统模型,设置冻结、现有政策、力度、替代和革命五组情景,深入分析民航业的驱动因子和发展趋势,探讨中国民航业中长期低碳发展的技术路径.结果显示,预计2060年左右人均乘机次数翻两番,突破2人次,冻结情景下2060年会带来高达6.9亿t的碳排放.力度情景下,民航业碳排放有望在2044年左右达峰,峰值水平控制在3亿t左右,40年累积减排近50%,仅需增加约1万亿人民币的成本.稳步推进机队更新换代,加快基础设施提升和运营操作改进,发展可持续航空燃料是民航业必须依赖的减排手段,分别能带来44.1%、29.5%和26.4%的减排量.因此,民航业要尽早制定行业"双碳"目标和实施路径计划,中短期统筹推进空域改革、空中交通管理和航司精细化管理,大力支持国产大飞机的发展,长期推动可持续航空燃料全产业链商业化和市场化.     

浅析LCNG汽车加气站建设项目的环境影响评价

随着经济发展和人口增加,中国大气污染日益加剧,在大中型城市,汽车等交通工具排放的污染造成的生态危害正在不断加剧,世界范围内的能源危机也日益严峻,这就促使人们开发新的替代燃料。因此,汽车使用液化天然气（LCNG）代替石油或柴油是重要途径。文章介绍了汽车加气站的环境影响评价的内容和评价重点,重点探讨了加气站建设项目环境影响评价时应关注的主要问题,对加气站建设的环境风险防范进行了分析,并指出此类项目的危险防范措施。     

2050年中国能源消费的情景预测

与全球气候变化紧密相关的能源消费问题是当今世界各国关注的热点,特别是中国能源消费规模、能源消费峰值和消费结构等更是关注的重点.论文在简要评述中国能源消费峰值、能源消费预测方法和模型的基础上,系统回顾了国内外对中国能源消费预测研究成果,侧重于人口和经济等驱动中国能源消费的两大主要因素,参考主要发达国家经济发展过程中人均能源消耗及人均累计能耗变化规律,对中国未来能源消费趋势进行了定量预测分析.结果表明:① 中国人均能耗、总量和人均累计消费量均有较大的发展潜力.2050年中国人均能耗大致在4.75~9.31 tce,上限也只相当于美国人均能耗峰值的76%;中国能源消费总量还将持续增长,2050 年的能源消费总量在61.91×10⁸~121.33×10⁸tce;1870-2050 年,中国人均累计能耗最佳分布区间为207~294 tce,只相当于1870-2012 年美国人均累计能耗的46%、德国的56%、英国的57%.② 文献梳理表明,当前预测中国能源消费峰值的各种研究成果大多认为在62×10⁸~79×10⁸tce,而峰值年份则出现在2035-2045 年,论文认为除美国、英国和德国情景将有峰值出现外,其他情景尚不可能出现峰值;③ 法国情景下中国能源消费“零”增长将于2040 年左右出现;日本、韩国以及基准情景预测显示,2035 年以后中国能源消费将进入到2%左右的低速增长期.上述研究结果表明,中国未来能源消费预测采用法国、日本、韩国情景较为合理,2035 年以后,中国能源消费将进入低速增长期.当前,中国人均收入不高,人均能耗尤其人均累计能耗处于较低水平,过早乐观承诺能源消费峰值,易使气候变化谈判陷入被动;从中国国情出发,需给中国社会经济发展留有能源消耗空间;促进能源资源的节约集约使用,积极倡导节能型生产生活方式,是中国社会经济可持续发展、保障能源安全、积极应对全球气候变化的现实需要.     

A new Early Oligocene peradectine marsupial (Mammalia)from the Burqin region of Xinjiang,China

Tertiary marsupial records are very scarce in Asia. A new peradectine marsupial, Junggaroperadectes burqinensis gen. et sp. nov., is reported from the Early Oligocene Keziletuogayi Formation in the Burqin region, Xinjiang, China. This new species is based on a single right upper M2. The tooth possesses a straight centrocrista, a characteristic of peradectines. Its main cusps lean buccally, with the paracone being smaller and lower than the metacone. The conules and stylar cusps are weakly developed. These characters distinguish J. burqinensis from Euro-American Tertiary peradectines, but they also imply a close phylogenetic relationship to Siamoperadectes and Sinoperadectes, two Asian Early Miocene peradectines.     

Road transport and urban air quality in China

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含氧柴油对柴油机排放及细颗粒物碳质组分的影响

乙缩醛(1,1-diethoxyethane)与柴油互溶性好, 可替代乙醇作为生物质来源的柴油含氧添加成分. 生物柴油掺混可以提高乙缩醛和柴油混合燃料的闪点及含氧量. 在柴油发动机台架上, 考察柴油和2种含氧柴油(10%乙缩醛+90%柴油和10%乙缩醛＋10%生物柴油＋80%柴油)在2个固定转速不同负荷的5个工况点的排放特性, 分析了NO_x、HC、CO和PM_2.5排放情况, 并用DRI的碳分析仪分析了PM_2.5中的碳质组分.结果表明, 与普通柴油排放相比, 含氧柴油对NO_x排放速率的影响不大, 在某些工况点HC排放速率有较显著的增加. 含氧柴油降低了柴油机PM_2.5排放速率, 最大降低幅度29%. 从碳质组成上看, 含氧燃料降低了PM_2.5中总碳 (total carbon,TC) 的排放速率, 最大降低幅度24%. 含氧柴油的元素碳(elemental carbon,EC)排放速率普遍低于普通柴油; 有机碳(organic carbon,OC)的排放速率在发动机高转速工况时明显低于普通柴油; PM_2.5的OC/EC值在大多数工况下高于普通柴油. 3种燃料排放PM_2.5的碳质组成百分比相似, OC和EC主要为OC1和EC1. 含氧柴油降低了柴油机PM_2.5的排放速率, 颗粒物中OC的比例有所增加, 但对颗粒物的碳质组分组成没有明显的影响.     

西气东输工程的环境协同效应研究

协同效应研究是气候变化政策研究的新领域,也是非常重要的领域.西气东输工程的主要目的是为我国中东部地区输送丰富的天然气资源,但其实施同时也有助于减少东部地区大气污染物排放,改善大气质量.利用较成熟的中国区域环境与经济综合评价模型(AIM-LOCAL/China模型),从用气项目的SO₂和CO₂排放的常规情景(BAU)和利用天然气后的情景(NGS)两方面进行了量化比较,分析西气东输工程的环境协同效应.研究发现:在用气项目的范围内,NGS情景下的SO₂排放相比BAU情景明显减少,同时CO₂等温室气体排放也大幅减少.2003-2020年,累计可以减排约312×104 t SO₂和3 475×104 t CO₂,分别比BAU情景减排40.5%和17.9%.从4个用气部门来看,不论是SO₂还是CO₂,电力部门用气项目的减排量都占突出位置.