Validation of discharge and atmospheric dispersion for unpressurised and pressurised carbon dioxide releases

This paper discusses the validation of discharge and subsequent atmospheric dispersion for both unpressurised and pressurised carbon dioxide releases using the consequence modelling package Phast.The paper first summarises the validation of the Phast dispersion model (UDM) for unpressurised releases. This includes heavy gas dispersion from either a ground-level line source (McQuaid wind-tunnel experiments) or an area source (Kit-Fox field experiments). For the McQuaid experiments minor modifications of the UDM were made to support line sources. For the Kit Fox experiments steady-state and 20-s finite-duration releases were simulated for both neutral and stable conditions. Most accurate predictions of the concentrations for finite duration releases were obtained using the UDM Finite Duration Correction method.Using experiments funded by BP and Shell and made available via DNV's CO2PIPETRANS JIP, the paper secondly summarises the validation of the Phast discharge and dispersion models for pressurised CO₂ releases. This modelling accounted for the possible presence of the solid CO₂ phase following expansion to atmospheric pressure. These experiments included both high-pressure steady-state and time-varying cold releases (liquid storage) and high-pressure time-varying supercritical hot releases. Both the flow rate and the concentrations were found to be predicted accurately.The above validation was carried out with no fitting whatsoever of the Phast extended discharge and dispersion models.     

Phast validation of discharge and atmospheric dispersion for pressurised carbon dioxide releases

The consequence modelling package Phast examines the progress of a potential incident from the initial release to the far-field dispersion including the modelling of rainout and subsequent vaporisation. The original Phast discharge and dispersion models allow the released substance to occur only in the vapour and liquid phases. The latest versions of Phast include extended models which also allow for the occurrence of fluid to solid transition for carbon dioxide (CO₂) releases.As part of two projects funded by BP and Shell (made publicly available via CO2PIPETRANS JIP), experimental work on CO₂ releases was carried out at the Spadeadam site (UK) by GL Noble Denton. These experiments included both high-pressure steady-state and time-varying cold releases (liquid storage) and high-pressure time-varying supercritical hot releases (vapour storage). The CO₂ was stored in a vessel with attached pipework. At the end of the pipework a nozzle was attached, where the nozzle diameter was varied.This paper discusses the validation of Phast against the above experiments. The flow rate was predicted accurately by the Phast discharge models (within 10%; considered within the accuracy at which the BP experimental data were measured), and the concentrations were found to be predicted accurately (well within a factor of two) by the Phast dispersion model (UDM). This validation was carried out with no fitting whatsoever of the Phast extended discharge and dispersion models.     

A model for the initial stages following the rupture of a natural gas transmission pipeline

Experience shows that, despite the best efforts of the pipeline industry worldwide, pipelines do fail and release their contents to the atmosphere. In the case of below-ground pipelines transmitting natural gas, there is a chance that the release will be ignited, posing a significant hazard to any people in the vicinity. Mindful of this hazard, an international group of gas companies have collaborated over a period of many years on research projects aimed at developing an understanding of how these releases may arise (failure causes), how often they might occur (failure frequency), what type of releases might be produced (failure modes) and what type of behaviour might be produced for each of these modes of release (consequence analysis). This paper has been prepared to describe the mathematical models that have been developed on behalf of this group to assess the initial transient period following the rupture of a buried natural gas transmission pipeline assuming the release ignites immediately. It gives details of the equations used by the different models and it refers to some of the experimental data that has been used in the development of the models. A comparison of the model with the experimental data is provided. This demonstrates that the early stages could have a significant impact when evaluating the harm that could be caused. This provides a justification for developing the models rather than using a simpler alternative that does not take the initial highly transient period into account.     

Oil spill cleanup cost estimation—Developing a mathematical model for marine environment

The field of oil spill cost modelling is not as well explored as desirable. Generally speaking, the existing models have either low accuracy, in that their predictions are far from the real cost, or low applicability, in that they are only valid under very specific conditions; such as in one particular country. This work strives to construct a model that is functional in a global scope and still possess a high level of accuracy. The resulting attempt is in many ways superior to the publicly available competitors, not only because of its predictive capacity but also because the model is quick to use, and its input variables should be readily available to any informed user. The model is more accurate comparing with similar available models. However, further study is needed to modify it to obtain more realistic results.     

Sensitivity analysis of Phast’s atmospheric dispersion model for three toxic materials (nitric oxide, ammonia, chlorine)

We present the results of a parametric sensitivity analysis of a widely used model for atmospheric dispersion of toxic gases, in order better to understand the influence of user-adjustable parameters on model outputs. We have studied 60 min continuous release scenarios for three different products (nitric oxide, ammonia and chlorine), chosen to cover a range of physical characteristics and storage conditions. For each product, we have broken down base-case scenarios into a number of sub-scenarios corresponding to different release conditions which determine physical phenomena (flow rate, release angle, release elevation and atmospheric stability class). The use of statistical tools to analyze the results of a large number of model executions allows us to rank model parameters according to their influence on the variability of a number of model outputs (distances and concentrations), on a per-scenario and per-product basis. Analysis of the results allows us to verify our understanding of the modeling of cloud dispersion.     

A simplified steady-state model for air,water and steam curtains

Curtain mitigation systems are modeled here since they have experimentally shown their efficiency in reducing the concentration of certain toxic gases within dense gas clouds. Air, water and steam are analyzed in a model as the physical barriers to decrease the gas concentration. The model, developed for a steady-state mitigation process, is based on the mass, energy and momentum conservation laws. Concentration estimations during the dispersion before and after the mitigation are performed with a SLAB type model. A sensitivity analysis for each model is given to detect which variables have bigger effects. A release of chlorine is used as an example and the results are calculated in a prototype developed in Visual C++, where the model is solved using the Runge–Kutta 4th order method. The results include the effects of composition, speed, temperature and height of the releasing point as well as a comparison with CFD simulations. The proposed model is simplified and it cannot reproduce eddy effects but it is fast and robust enough. The model provides a set of equations that can be used in numerical problems where explicit derivatives are required, e.g. optimizations procedures.     

矿井水源判别的GA-SVM模型研究

作为水在岩体中流动通道的渗透结构面,微观上表现出不连续性和高度的非线性等特点,因此,矿井充水水源具有不确定性、非线性。传统水化学判别分析方法往往难以准确地描述这种复杂的非线性特征,因而对矿井水源进行准确判别尚存在一定的困难。在传统SVM(Support Vector Machine,SVM)的基础上,利用遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)对传统SVM进行优化,克服了传统SVM模型参数选取经验化的弊端,并利用该方法对开磷集团马路坪矿几种水源的6个化学样本进行训练,建立了GA-SVM模型。实例分析表明,该模型判别结果与实际情况相符合,表明该模型在矿井水源判别中具有良好的实用性和有效性。     

A rising tide raises all boats: Regional promotion of process safety through joint government/industry management

With the development of increasingly complex processes and technologies in chemical and manufacturing industries, Process Safety Management (PSM) has been globally recognized as the primary tool for operating companies to reduce process accidents on their industrial sites and the risks posed to their employees and surrounding communities. Yet, industrial facilities are often interdependent and collocated with others. Recognizing this, regional authorities are also applying PSM principles to reduce the cumulative incidents associated with high density industrial areas and the multiplicative risks posed to broader communities. This paper compares Strathcona County Emergency Service (SCES) in Alberta, Contra Costa County Health Service Hazard Material Programs (CCCHSHMP) in California, and Technical Standards & Safety Authority (TSSA) in Ontario and their PSM systems to provide practical recommendations to improve SCES's system. Four aspects of PSM are considered: regulation and guidance, auditing and inspection, annual performance indicators, and public participation. Based on the results of this comparison, we recommend that SCES develop comprehensive PSM regulations based on CSA Z767-17 PSM including clear instructions for assessing technologies and methodologies for consequence analysis. Both worst-case scenarios and alternative scenarios need to be considered as well as the domino effect of primary accidents. Furthermore, regular audits and inspections will ensure compliance with PSM regulations while helping the design of planning, performing, and following-up strategies to ensure effectiveness. In addition, we suggest the use of lagging and leading performance indicators to evaluate the performance of the PSM program. Finally, we recommend using advisory councils or commissions to increase public participation and ensure the representation of stakeholders' perspectives with the PSM system.     

尘肺病危险环模型与尘肺病预防对策

介绍了尘肺危险环模型的结构、原理,并以尘肺危险环模型为基础,从呼吸性粉尘危害程度分级、呼吸性粉尘监测与治理及呼吸性粉尘管理等几个方面探讨了尘肺病的预防对策。     

Utilization of regression technique to develop a predictive model for hazard radius from release of typical methane-rich natural gas

The aim of hazardous area classification around equipment handling or storing of flammable fluids is to avoid the ignition of those releases that may occur from time to time in the operation of these equipment. There is a point source approach for the classification of hazardous areas which can estimate hazard radius by using hole size and release pressure. Methane-rich natural gas is widely used or produced in the process industries. Till date, there exist no reference that represents hazard radii for the wide range of possible hole sizes and release pressures of this fluid. The aim of the present study was to propose a predictive model for estimation of hazard radii due to releases of typical methane-rich natural gas based on hole size and release pressure. In this study, a complete database of hazard radii due to a broad range of hole sizes and release pressures was provided using available discharge and dispersion models. A regression-based model for estimation of hazard radii was developed based on the provided database. Performance investigation of the proposed model and a case study showed that the results are reliable with an acceptable standard error.     

A modified steady-state model for evaluation of ammonia concentrations behind a water curtain

Water curtain system has been proved an effective mitigation measurement for ammonia spill dispersion. Calculating of ammonia cloud concentration with water curtain was less studied. This paper presents a steady-state calculation model to calculate open and forced ammonia spill dispersion. The formula of ammonia absorption was built and integrated into the calculation model. The calculated downwind ammonia concentrations for open and forced spill dispersion were reproduced and compared with literature using a statistical method. In addition, the relationship between ammonia concentration in water droplet and the droplet diameter was studied. The results display that the formula of ammonia absorption is suitable for calculating mass transfer process between the ammonia cloud and the water curtain. The calculation model presents good performances for open and forced ammonia spill dispersion. This study indicates that the calculation model can be satisfactory in determining the impact of open and forced ammonia spill dispersion and the design of water curtain mitigation system.     

A superstructure model for the synthesis of single-contaminant water networks with partitioning regenerators

This paper presents a novel superstructure-based optimization model for the synthesis of industrial water networks with partitioning regenerators. Such regenerators function by splitting a contaminated water stream into a regenerated lean stream and a low-quality reject stream. Membrane separation-based processes are examples of these types of regenerators. The optimization model presented in this work integrates a single, centralized partitioning regenerator with a source–demand superstructure under the assumption that the processes within the plant are of the fixed flow rate type. The formulation is non-linear as a result of the presence of bilinear terms in the regenerator balance equations, but global optimal solutions can be found using commercial software. The features of the model are illustrated by solving case studies from the literature. It is notable from these examples that considerable design flexibility exists in networks of this type, since potentially both the lean and reject streams from the partitioning regenerator can be reused/recycled within the plant.     

一种改进的模拟水灭火过程对抗式交互模型

针对虚拟火灾和燃气真火模拟训练系统中的灭火过程交互模型,研究了改进型对抗式系统动力学特性模型,并完成符号求解。讨论并提出了消防员行为、火场外部特征等要素变化条件下的模型架构,给出了连续时间区间的模拟灭火交互模型序列构成形式。分析了交互过程控制参数特性、功能和物理意义,对灭火过程的简化模拟方法进行了完整描述。运用模型编制了消防水灭火典型过程的参数化交互控制时序规律,给出了灭火过程交互模型实际应用的基本方法和步骤。     

再生水水质安全保障体系评价模型的构建

污水再生利用是解决水危机切实可行的途径之一,加强水质安全保障体系的评价工作对于促进再生水使用的监督和管理有重要意义.根据再生水生产、输配及使用的各个环节,建立了再生水水质安全保障评价指标体系,采用层次分析法求备评价指标的权重,建立了基于2级模糊综合评价方法的再生水水质安全保障体系评价模型,对深圳市莲塘再生水示范基地的安全保障体系进行了模糊综合评价,评价结果与相关检测机构检测结果相符.研究表明:在求各评价指标的权重时,层次分析法具有科学的检验手段,误差较小;采用多层次的定性化与定性化相结合的模糊综合评价方法对再生水水质安全保障体系进行综合评判,避免了人的主观随意性,评价结果更符合实际情况.     

矿井突水水源识别的RS-LSSVM模型

为了对矿井突水水源进行准确、高效的判别,综合考虑水化学特征,选取Ca~(2+),Mg~(2+),K~++Na~+,HCO-3,SO2-4,Cl~-和总硬度7个指标的质量浓度(mg/L)作为矿井突水水源的最初判别指标。利用粗糙集(RS)理论的属性约简来筛选水化学特征指标,用以作为水源识别的核心判别指标,建立基于RS的矿井突水水源识别的最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型。选用约简处理后的13组煤矿数据对模型进行训练,再用训练好的模型对另外12组突水数据进行水源判别,并与未进行属性约简的LSSVM模型及Fisher判别分析法、随机森林方法进行对比。结果表明,利用属性约简方法可以很好地排除原始数据中的冗余信息干扰,因而能有效判别矿井突水水源,使矿井突水水源模型的误判率降低至0;而且指标约简过程可以降低LSSVM运算的复杂度,也能够提高判别效率。     

穿越水体天然气管道的泄漏气和沼气的辨别技术

为精确分析天然气管道穿越水体或淤泥表面冒出气泡中气体全部组分及摩尔含量,排除天然气管道泄漏的可能性,对采集气体样品进行气相色谱检测与甲烷碳同位素相对含量检测.结果表明:通过对比穿越水体管道内天然气组分发现,2类气体样品存在很大特征性差异,排除天然气管道泄漏可能性.研究结果可为类似事件处置提供理论依据.     

城市供水管网漏损动态预测的Bootstrap-Lee-Carter模型*

为对某城市供水片区的不同管径和管材的管道漏点率进行动态预测,考虑城市供水管网漏损时变特征,采用Bootstrap方法估计Lee-Carter参数模型。针对供水管网漏点率进行经典Lee-Carter模型预测,并通过残差等高线图及其同方差性质检验,比较分析最小二乘法和加权最小二乘法估计Lee-Carter模型参数的拟合效果;考虑供水管网漏损时变引起的模型参数不确定性扰动,利用残差Bootstrap方法抽样模拟Lee-Carter模型参数置信区间和模型改进后的供水管网漏损预测结果。结果表明:Bootstrap-Lee-Carter模型相比经典Lee-Carter模型具有更高的预测精度。     

大连市水资源安全评价模型的构建及其应用

水资源安全问题是水科学与系统科学交叉研究的热点.以大连市为例构建评价指标体系,通过层次分析法(AHP)与熵值法确定评价指标在满足主客观条件下的综合权重; 采用率定方程确定各指标的安全度;应用指数合成法对大连市水资源的安全状况进行评价.研究结果表明,近几年大连市水资源总体上处于不安全状态且不安全状况主要发生在农村.为保证社会、经济、环境各方面协调发展,必须重点解决农村地区的用水问题.本文同时也就解决水资源安全问题提出了一些建议.     

改善太仓城区水环境原型调水实验研究及模型建立

为达到改善太仓城区水环境的目的,于2004年4月21日进行了调水实验.调水历时14 h,期间向城区调水21.8万m3.通过对监测点采样,得到水量、水质实测数据.根据实验数据,建立了符合太仓河网的水量水质数学模型,分析了从长江引水对太仓城区水环境的改善程度.同时对不同引水方案情况下城区水环境改善效果,以及截污和清淤对水环境的影响做了分析.研究表明,引水只能短期改善水环境;要根治水环境,必须从源头抓起,进行截污.