基于TVR的腐蚀油气管道失效概率及安全寿命研究

为避免因腐蚀导致油气管道失效,针对因管道特性和腐蚀尺寸的不确定性使得管道剩余强度成为概率模型的特点,建立了腐蚀管道强度损失随机模型;借助可靠性理论,通过分析管道腐蚀进程的时变性特点,将管道系统由损伤积累和抗力衰减导致的剩余强度随机化;提出基于穿越率的腐蚀油气管道失效评定及安全寿命预测方法。研究结果表明:腐蚀速率和运行压力对管道失效概率及安全寿命影响显著,管道尺寸影响适中,而相关系数和拉伸强度影响较小;若腐蚀速率Va=0.2 mm/a,VL=10 mm/a或局部腐蚀缺陷半径达到管道壁厚的0.5倍时,建议作为重点风险段监测并检修。所建方法是对腐蚀油气管道运营监控和风险评估的有益补充。     

保温层下管道腐蚀监测系统及应用研究

为预防保温层下管道腐蚀带来的严重问题,必须采取有效措施进行腐蚀在线监测,以了解管道的剩余壁厚情况。在分析现有的腐蚀监测技术不足的前提下,基于γ射线数字扫描检测技术（GSDT）,研发了1套保温层下管道腐蚀在线监测系统,该系统可以实现对保温层下腐蚀管道剩余壁厚在线监测,并通过带保温层管道的检测试验和t-分布分析方法检验腐蚀监测系统的检测精度,最后以某化工企业为例,验证了该系统的有效性。结果表明:腐蚀监测系统可以实现对保温层管道剩余壁厚的监测,保温层和高密度介质不影响管壁厚度的测量结果,且使用所研发的腐蚀监测系统监测到的管道腐蚀速率与现场实际腐蚀速率基本一致。     

基于ISOA-RBPNN的埋地管道剩余强度预测*

为提高腐蚀管道剩余强度的预测精度，提出引入弹性梯度下降法改进BP神经网络，并融合改进海鸥优化算法(ISOA)，构建腐蚀管道剩余强度预测模型。关于改进BP神经网络模型的参数寻优，首先采用Cat混沌映射初始化改进海鸥优化算法(SOA)初始种群的分布，提升寻优能力，优化SOA的搜索方向和攻击形式，增强其全局搜索能力并提高收敛速度，然后用ISOA对弹性BP神经网络（RBPNN）模型中的权值和阈值进行寻优，最后构建ISOA-RBPNN预测模型。以管道爆破数据为例，利用MATLAB进行仿真模拟，并与PSO-BPNN模型和IFA-BPNN模型预测结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明:ISOA-RBPNN模型的各项评价指标均优于其他2个模型，预测结果较实际值误差更小，在预测腐蚀管道剩余强度领域具有更好的性能，可为后续研究腐蚀管道剩余寿命和制定维修策略提供参考依据。     

腐蚀管道评价标准ASME B31G-2009和SY/T6151-2009对比

腐蚀是油气管道最常见的失效形式之一,对腐蚀管道进行剩余强度评价是保障管道安全可靠运行的基础工作。ASME B31G-2009和SY/T6151-2009是国内外的两种主流评价标准的最新版本,为了在选取适当的评价标准时有判断依据,比较分析了新版标准评价结果的保守程度,研究了评价流程、计算模型和计算参数取值等方面,并结合爆破试验数据和有限元仿真结果进行了验证。结果表明,两种标准仍具有一定的保守性,且当管道强度等级、腐蚀情况及数据资料完整度等不同时,两种标准有各自的适用范围和优缺点。     

Internal corrosion hazard assessment of oil & gas pipelines using Bayesian belief network model

A substantial amount of oil & gas products are transported and distributed via pipelines, which can stretch for thousands of kilometers. In British Columbia (BC), Canada, alone there are over 40,000 km of pipelines currently being operated. Because of the adverse environmental impact, public outrage and significant financial losses, the integrity of the pipelines is essential. More than 37 pipe failures per year occur in BC causing liquid spills and gas releases, damaging both property and environment. BC oil & gas commission (BCOGS) has indicated metal loss due to internal corrosion as one of the primary causes of these failures. Therefore, it is of a paramount importance to timely identify pipelines subjected to severe internal corrosion in order to improve corrosion mitigation and pipeline maintenance strategies, thus minimizing the likelihood of failure. To accomplish this task, this paper presents a Bayesian belief network (BBN)-based probabilistic internal corrosion hazard assessment approach for oil & gas pipelines. A cause-effect BBN model has been developed by considering various information, such as analytical corrosion models, expert knowledge and published literature. Multiple corrosion models and failure pressure models have been incorporated into a single flexible network to estimate corrosion defects and associated probability of failure (PoF). This paper also explores the influence of fluid composition and operating conditions on the corrosion rate and PoF. To demonstrate the application of the BBN model, a case study of the Northeastern BC oil & gas pipeline infrastructure is presented. Based on the pipeline's mechanical characteristics and operating conditions, spatial and probabilistic distributions of corrosion defect and PoF have been obtained and visualized with the aid of the Geographic Information System (GIS). The developed BBN model can identify vulnerable pipeline sections and rank them accordingly to enhance the informed decision-making process.     

高含硫气田地面集输系统防腐技术综合应用浅析

针对高含硫气田地面集输系统中H2S、CO2严重腐蚀管道和容器的问题,分析了腐蚀产生机理和破坏形式。以四川省境内的普光气田为例,阐述了实际采取的各种防腐措施,主要包括:选择抗蚀材料,严格控制焊接工艺,对输送的天然气进行保温外输,使用缓蚀剂,防止冷凝水析出以及避免管道弯头和突出部位的紊流。在此基础上,分析了目前主要的在线腐蚀监测方法的特点,介绍了普光所用的在线监测技术及其监测系统。各种防腐和在线监测技术的综合应用,对于保障高含硫气田安全生产和运行具有重要意义。     

基于光电子能谱的高含水输油管道内壁腐蚀减薄试验分析

鄂尔多斯盆地高含水输油管道内壁腐蚀减薄现象普遍,腐蚀穿孔频次逐年上升,管道安全防护管理成为难题。为了识别输油管道内壁腐蚀减薄原因,作者在分析含水率、地层水水型、溶解氧对管道内腐蚀影响的基础上选择特征试验管段,基于X射线光电子能谱技术开展管道内壁厚度变化、金相组织、腐蚀产物特性、边缘腐蚀状态研究。结果表明:高含水输油管道内壁腐蚀减薄类型为Cl+O2+H2O环境下的垢下腐蚀,以溶解氧（O2）腐蚀为主,氯离子（Cl－）腐蚀为辅;内壁腐蚀减薄原因为原油含水率过高、水中氯离子含量过高、水中含有溶解氧和介质流速偏低。     

埋地油气管道沿线土壤腐蚀性可拓评价研究

油气管道长期埋设在土壤环境中会受到各种侵蚀介质的腐蚀并引发泄漏、火灾、爆炸等事故。针对土壤腐蚀因素复杂多变的特点,建立基于物元、可拓集合和关联函数的埋地油气管道沿线土壤腐蚀性评价模型;选取土壤电阻率、自然电位、氧化还原电位、pH值、含水率、Cl-含量、SO42-含量7个评价指标,将土壤对油气管道腐蚀的严重程度划分为低、较低、中、强和较强5个等级;采用客观赋权的变异系数法（CV法）来确定土壤腐蚀性评价指标的权重,避免了以往评价方法的主观性,进一步提高模型的精度和效率。以某埋地天然气管道5个管段土壤为例,可拓评价结果表明4#土壤的腐蚀性较强,其他土壤腐蚀性中等,这与外腐蚀检测结果吻合,证明所想出的模型简便、高效、精确,具有很好的科学性和工程应用性。     

Corrosion failure probability analysis of buried gas pipelines based on subset simulation

Corrosion is the main reason for the failure of buried gas pipelines. For effective corrosion failure probability analysis, the structural reliability theory was adopted in this study to establish two calculation models for pipeline corrosion failure: the pressure failure model and von Mises stress failure model. Then, two calculation models for the corrosion failure probability were established based on a corrosion depth growth model obtained from actual survey data of soil corrosion characteristics. In an example, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and subset simulation (SS) were used to analyze the corrosion failure probability of pipelines, and the results were compared. SS can compensate for the shortcomings of MCS as it has higher computational efficiency and accuracy. Therefore, SS was adopted to simulate variations in the corrosion failure probability of buried pipelines with the service time for the two failure probability calculation models, which were applied to a natural gas pipeline located in a chemical industry park in Zhuhai, China. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the relevant parameters that affect the failure probability. The results showed that multiple loads caused by the covering soil, residual stress, temperature differential, and bending stress have a non-negligible effect on the pipeline reliability. The corrosion coefficients gradually become the most important factors that affect the failure probability with increased service time. The proposed methodology considers the actual operating conditions of pipelines to provide a reliable theoretical basis for integrity management.     

基于有限元的含腐蚀缺陷P110油管失效分析与安全评价

含有腐蚀缺陷油管在复杂的工作荷载下容易发生失效。建立了在内压与轴向力共同作用的复杂工作载荷下,含椭球型蚀坑缺陷与轴向沟槽型缺陷两种腐蚀缺陷的油管有限元模型。基于该模型研究了不同载荷工况下缺陷宽度、深度与长度对油管安全性及失效模式的影响。研究结果表明:腐蚀位置深度较浅时,椭球型蚀坑缺陷更危险,油管主要发生由轴力引发的断裂失效;腐蚀位置深度较深时,轴向沟槽型缺陷更危险,主要发生由内压引发的破裂失效。研究成果可为含腐蚀缺陷油管的安全评估提供依据。     

基于遗传-神经网络算法的含均匀腐蚀缺陷油气管线爆破压力预测研究*

为提高含均匀腐蚀缺陷油气管线爆破压力的预测精度，保障长输油气管线的安全运行，将遗传算法和BP神经网络相结合，建立含均匀腐蚀缺陷油气管线爆破压力预测的遗传-BP神经网络（GA-BPNNs）模型。采用已有文献实验数据，分析对比该模型与AGA NG-18，ASME B31G，修正B31G，PCORRC，DNV RP-F101和SHELL 92等方法用于X46，X52，X60，X65，X80等材质油气管线含均匀腐蚀缺陷时爆破压力的计算误差。结果表明:GA-BPNNs模型用于含均匀腐蚀缺陷油气管线爆破压力预测时，误差在-7.78%～6.06%之间，预测精度明显高于目前国内外通用规范的计算结果；该模型操作简单，适用范围广，工程实用性好，为含缺陷压力管道爆破压力的预测提供更好的思路和方案。     

A mathematical model of crevice corrosion for buried pipeline with disbonded coatings under cathodic protection

Crevice corrosion occurs in a holiday and disbonded region between coating and pipeline steel. Cathodic protection (CP) is generally recognized as the most effective method for corrosion prevention of pipeline, but its effectiveness may be reduced at defects in a disbonded coating. It is difficult to measure and probe corrosion parameters accurately based on experimental work. Therefore, a mathematical model is necessary to identify the phenomena and mechanisms that contribute to the crevice corrosion process. In this work, a mathematical model was developed to determine the evolution of chemical and electrochemical transient processes of crevice corrosion in NaCl dilute solution, and the effect of cathodic protection and crevice width on corrosion of 20# steel pipeline with disbonded coatings. Results have demonstrated that the extent of crevice corrosion depends on the crevice geometry and could be influenced by the increase of crevice depth and decrease of its width. The oxygen concentrations drop significantly inside a crevice whether CP is applied or not and whether crevice width decreased or not. The pH values and conductivity of crevice solution increase with the time. The research provides a theoretical foundation for cathodic protection of pipelines and establishes an effective corrosion model which can identify the phenomena and mechanisms of the crevice corrosion process. This work could be used to help mitigate the corrosion failure of pipelines to prevent catastrophic accidents in oil, gas and chemical process industries.     

Safety and reliability assessment of external corrosion defects assessment of buried pipelines—soil interface: A mechanisms and FE study

Due to local liquid accumulation (AL) in the low-lying section of the buried natural gas pipeline, external corrosion will occur at the interface between the pipeline and the soil. External corrosion will produce pit defects, which will reduce the bearing capacity of the pipeline and affect the normal operation of the pipeline. In addition, corrosion group defects can interact with each other. Thus, the service life of the pipeline is seriously affected. In this work, a case of local corrosion failure of the pipeline caused by liquid accumulation on-site is presented. The importance of this work is verified by experiment and field excavation. Besides, based on the Mises-Stress yield criterion, nonlinear analysis was carried out with the finite element method (FEM). The effects of internal pressure, corrosion pit defect size, internal and external wall corrosion, corrosion pit group, and different types of volumetric corrosion pit defects on the failure of L360QS steel pipe were analyzed with consideration of the effects of axial and circumferential zones of corrosion pits. These correlations have not been seen in previous studies. The FE results make up for the disadvantage that the corrosion is simplified to equal depth corrosion in the code, which will underestimate the residual strength of the actual corroded pipeline and lead to unnecessary repair or replacement. The results provide a reference for failure analysis and strength evaluation of buried L360QS steel pipe with corrosion defect.     

Development of HGAPSO-SVR corrosion prediction approach for offshore oil and gas pipelines

Managing the oil and gas pipelines against corrosion is one of the major challenges of the oil and gas sector because of the complexities associated with the initiation, stabilization, and growth of the corrosion defects. The present research attempts to develop a model for predicting the maximum depth of pitting corrosion in oil and gas pipelines using SVM algorithm. In order to improve the SVM performance, Hybrid PSO and GA was utilized. Monte Carlo simulation was used to determine the time lapse for the pit depth growth. In order to implement the above modeling approaches and to prove their efficiency and accuracy against a large database, a total of 340 data samples for corrosion depth and rate are retrieved from the Iranian Oilfields. The performance of the new algorithm shows that it has higher stability and accuracy. In addition, the forecasting results of the new algorithm are compared with the 11 intelligent optimization algorithms, it shows that the novel hybrid algorithm has higher accuracy, better generalization ability, and stronger robustness. The coefficient of determination (R²) value in the testing phase for SVM-HGAPSO was estimated by 0.99. Proposed hybrid model and Monte-Carlo simulations pitting corrosion based on Poisson square wave process have been used to predict the time evolution of the mean value of the pit depth distribution for different categories of maximum pitting rates (low, moderate, high and sever). The models was validated with 4 field data for each of the pitting corrosion categories and the results agreed well. The pipelines under severe pitting corrosion rate were, more conservatively predicted by HGAPSO-SVR than those under low, moderate and high pitting corrosion rates. The results obtained demonstrate the potentials of this technique for the integrity management of corroded aged pipelines.     

基于模拟的腐蚀管道可靠性分析

腐蚀失效是压力管道失效的主要模式之一。通常采用腐蚀管道剩余强度估算的方法 ,评价腐蚀管道的安全性。腐蚀管道的剩余寿命则采用可靠性理论计算得到。以各种局部腐蚀缺陷的评定方法来建立模拟模型 ,直接采用蒙特卡罗模拟可以计算得到不同时间下的管道的失效概率 ,同时根据目标可靠度来确定腐蚀管道的剩余寿命。含多个腐蚀缺陷的管道的失效概率需要考虑缺陷间的相关性。采用模拟方法可以计算失效概率的秩相关 ,避免采用独立假设来计算管道的失效概率     

Modelling of pitting corrosion in marine and offshore steel structures – A technical review

Corrosion is a major cause of structural deterioration in marine and offshore structures. It affects the life of process equipment and pipelines, and can result in structural failure, leakage, product loss, environmental pollution and the loss of life. Pitting corrosion is regarded as one of the most hazardous forms of corrosion for marine and offshore structures. The total loss of the structure might be very small, but local rate of attack can be very large and can lead to early catastrophic failure. Pitting corrosion is a localized accelerated dissolution of metal that occurs as a result of a breakdown in the protective passive film on the metal surface. It has been studied for many years; however, the structural failure due to pit characteristics is still not fully understood. Accurate pit depth measurements, precise strength assessment techniques, risk analysis due to pitting, and the mathematical relationship of the environmental factors that causes pitting failure are also factors, which need further understanding. Hence this paper focuses on these issues. It reviews and analyses the current understanding of the pitting corrosion mechanism and investigates all possible factors that can cause pitting corrosion. Furthermore, different techniques employed by scientists and researchers to identify and model the pitting corrosion are also reviewed and analysed. Future work should involve an in-depth scientific study of the corrosion mechanism and an engineering predictive model is recommended in order to assess failure, and thereby attempt to increase the remaining life of offshore assets.     

腐蚀缺陷管道评价标准保守性对比分析

针对标准SY/T6477-2000和标准API RP579-2007 中腐蚀缺陷管道评价判据问题,研究了标准中各项判据及其算法,计算了不同评价标准对于同一腐蚀缺陷的评价结果,并对比分析了不同参数变化情况与评价结果保守性关系。结果表明,不同评价标准所得的缺陷管道判据参数值之间存在差异,即各评价标准的保守性不同,不同评价标准适用于不同的均匀腐蚀或局部腐蚀缺陷管道情况。以此有效防止使用标准时造成差错,同时为今后相关标准的修订尽可能提供有益的帮助。     

塔河油田站间伴生气管线腐蚀风险评价

塔河油田某站间伴生气管线输送气体H2S含量较高,若管线发生腐蚀,导致伴生气泄漏会污染环境,造成人员伤害,因此对该管线的腐蚀风险进行了评估。评估结果认为该管线在目前的运行工况和腐蚀环境下,使用GB 6479—2000的20#钢适用于SSC2酸性环境,不会发生硫化物应力腐蚀开裂;预测腐蚀速率为0.51 mm/a,以H2S为主的腐蚀可能产生严重的局部腐蚀或点蚀,需定期进行腐蚀监测。     

基于有限元的含腐蚀缺陷原油集输管道剩余强度研究*

为研究含腐蚀缺陷原油集输管道的剩余强度,以延长油田集输系统常用的20#管线钢为例,采用ABAQUS建立1/2腐蚀管道有限元模型,研究单个均匀腐蚀缺陷对集输管道剩余强度的影响,分析缺陷位置、缺陷长度、缺陷宽度和缺陷深度的影响规律,并采用Matlab对缺陷长度和缺陷宽度角的模拟结果进行拟合,拟合确定系数R2均达99.0%以上。结果表明:集输管道的剩余强度受缺陷位置的影响较小;随着缺陷长度的增加先减小后保持不变,随着缺陷宽度的增加先略微增加后保持不变,建立缺陷深度分别为1.5,2.0,2.5 mm的有限元模型,得到缺陷临界长度分别为210,140,130 mm,缺陷宽度角分别为56°,57°,141°;剩余强度受缺陷深度的影响最大,会随着缺陷深度的增加而减小;缺陷深度越大,缺陷长度和缺陷宽度对剩余强度的影响越大。     

埋地管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测概率模型

为考察腐蚀参数的不确定性对埋地管道失效和剩余寿命的影响,建立以Shell—92确定性模型为基础的管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测概率模型。采用Monte-Carlo方法计算管道剩余寿命及其累积分布函数,并进行参数敏感性分析,详细研讨影响埋地管道腐蚀剩余寿命的主要参数及其随服役时间的变化规律。计算结果表明,提出的管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测模型能有效预测实际中受多因素影响的管道失效和剩余寿命问题。