实施安全风险抵押金制度确保煤矿安全生产

根据本矿区安全生产现状 ,实施了安全风险抵押金制度 ,取得了初步成效。     

火灾情况下小学生应急疏散量化分析研究

我国是一个火灾发生频率高的国家,为切实保障在校学生的人身安全,提高学生应急疏散能力,最大限度地减轻火灾造成的人员伤亡,有必要针对不同学生群体举行应急疏散演练训练。针对火灾中影响人员安全疏散的因素和不同年龄层次小学生特点设计实验方案,以时间为量化衡量值,对小学生疏散训练的效果进行量化分析,通过采用现场实验的方法采集数据,并采用SPSS进行统计分析归纳测试结果,归纳出小学生应急疏散训练特点,为将来国内小学校应急疏散训练效果评价指标体系研究提供参考依据,并且为针对小学生群体疏散演练的训练模式奠定一定的实验基础。     

Determination of human error probabilities for offshore platform musters

The focus of this work is on prediction of human error probabilities during the process of emergency musters on offshore oil and gas production platforms. Due to a lack of human error databases, and in particular human error data for offshore platform musters, an expert judgment technique, the Success Likelihood Index Methodology (SLIM), was adopted as a vehicle to predict human error probabilities. Three muster scenarios of varying severity (man overboard, gas release, and fire and explosion) were studied in detail. A panel of 24 judges active in the offshore oil and gas industry provided data for both the weighting and rating of six performance shaping factors. These data were subsequently processed by means of SLIM to calculate the probability of success for 18 muster actions ranging from point of muster initiator to the final actions in the temporary safe refuge (TSR). The six performance shaping factors considered in this work were stress, complexity, training, experience, event factors and atmospheric factors.     

Risk management and workers’ safety behavior control in coal mine

According to the risk management characteristics and the actual needs of safety production in coal mine, we thoroughly analyze the system of risk management method in coal mine and implement it in Geting Coal Mine. The system manages and controls the potential accident risks, hazard sources and human behavior risks. On this basis, the system of workers’ safety behavior control technology in coal mine is further studied, the “three disobeying” is classified and managed, the “three disobeying” database and safety countermeasures database are established, and the application software - the system of risk management and safety countermeasures optimization in coal mine based on B/S mode is developed and applied, which uses intranet to analyze and supervise the “three disobeying”, publish early-warning information, optimize management and control countermeasures; at the same time, the important prompting messages can be automatically sent to the mobile phones of relevant managers and the person in charge through public communication system in order to improve the real time capability and effectiveness of unsafe behavior control. The technological system and application software implemented in Geting Coal Mine has achieved good results.     

A taxonomy of performance influencing factors for human reliability analysis of emergency tasks

This paper introduces the process for, and the result of, the selection of performance influencing factors (PIFs) for the use in human reliability analysis (HRA) of emergency tasks in nuclear power plants. The approach taken in this study largely consists of three steps. First, a full-set PIF system is constructed from the collection and review of existing PIF taxonomies. Secondly, PIF candidates are selected from the full-set PIF system, considering the major characteristics of emergency situations and the basic criteria of PIF for use in HRA. Finally, a set of PIFs is established by structuring representative PIFs and their detailed subitems from the candidates. As a result, a set of PIFs comprised of the 11 representative PIFs and 39 subitems was developed.     

煤矿安全目标管理方法及其应用软件研究

对煤矿安全管理的特点进行了分析,在此基础上提出了煤矿安全目标管理的方法,以及煤矿安全目标管理应用软件。     

Research on 10-year tendency of China coal mine accidents and the characteristics of human factors

The trend of China coal mine accidents in the latest 10 years was studied and the human factors in these accidents were analyzed by multi-dimensional statistic analysis. It shows that the number of major coal mine accidents and the death toll in the accidents were decreasing steadily, while sporadic death accidents still accounted for the largest percentage of deaths. Gas outburst accidents, gas explosion accidents and mine water accidents remained the major part of the whole story and subject to close attention. Among the causes of these accidents, human factors accounted for 94.09%, of which intentional violation, mismanagement and defective design accounted for 35.43%, 55.12%, 3.54% respectively. Improper operational and management practices in which the safety system, procedures and specifications were neglected or broken were still key roots of China coal mine accidents.     

Pilot sample risk analysis for underground coal mine fires and explosions using MSHA citation data

After three decades of sustained continuous improvement of mine safety performances in the US, mine disasters in 2006 and 2007 compromised an excellent record and presented new challenges and vulnerabilities for the underground coal mining industry. In the aftermath of the incidents, formal investigations and new scrutiny of mine safety by the US Congress and expert study groups followed. The US Congress passed the Mine Improvement and New Emergency Response Act of 2006 (MINER Act), which mandated new laws to address the issues, including those related to mine fires and explosions from which miners must be protected. The National Mining Association-sponsored Mine Safety Technology and Training Commission report highlighted the role of risk analysis and management in identifying and controlling major hazards, such as fires and explosions. In this paper an approach is given for analyzing the risks for fires and explosions based on the Mine Safety and Health Administration citation database. Using 2006 citation data and focusing on subsystem failures, the methodology is applied to a database for a pilot sample of underground coal mines stratified by mine size and state.     

Dynamic numerical simulation of coal mine fire for escape capsule installation

Fire in mine laneway leads to disordered ventilation system airflow, and smoke will result in staff poisoning. In such situation, it necessitates to install a rescue capsule in the common staff area. In this paper, the software Fluent was used to simulate the airflow conditions dynamically in No. 5 belt roadway of Kongzhuang Coal Mine when fire broke out. The migration law of CO front was determined. By underground escape experiments, personnel escape velocity model in pathway was established. Based on the numerical simulation and results of field experiments, the escape capsule installation location in the passageway of No. 5 belt roadway was ascertained.     

基于灰色系统理论的煤矿人因事故关键因素分析

通过对煤矿人因失误事故致因因素进行分析,统计出相关的关键影响因素,运用灰色系统关联理论,根据国家安监局近十年煤矿事故统计数据,对煤矿人因失误事故影响类型进行了分析。以煤矿事故发生起数和事故死亡人数作为参考指标,计算和分析行为失误致因、个人违章、组织管理失误等十项主要与煤矿人因事故相关的灰色关联度,进而推算出这些因素的灰色关联序,确定出导致煤矿人因失误事故的关键因素,最终得到煤矿人因事故与关键影响因素之间的定量化分析结果。采用灰色关联理论对煤矿人因失误影响因素进行分析,能够很好地说明人因失误与各关键影响因素之间的权重关系,对煤矿人因事故主致因机理有更加深刻的理解,为煤矿事故的预防和控制提供重要的参考依据。     

风险感知对非适应性应急疏散行为的影响

为研究安全风险感知对非适应性应急疏散行为的影响机制,提升应急疏散的安全性,进而保障公众生命财产安全,建立包含风险感知、心理韧性、安全氛围、群体恐慌和非适应性应急疏散行为5个变量的理论模型,采用问卷调查法研究5个变量之间的关系,应用AMOS软件搭建结构方程模型,并结合调研数据进行分析。研究结果表明：风险感知对发生突发事件后人的非适应性应急疏散行为产生主要正向作用,群体恐慌通过调节作用提高风险感知,也会对人的非适应性应急疏散行为产生相应正向影响;安全氛围和心理韧性通过风险感知的中介作用会,对人的非适应性应急疏散行为产生一定负向影响;可通过加强安全氛围建设、安全知识科普、提高现场管理人员能力等方法,减少突发事件中非适应性应急疏散行为的产生。     

地铁火灾应急疏散路线规划与对策

为有效控制地铁内灾难发生、避免重大伤亡和损失,预先对地铁火灾进行模拟并制定相应疏散方案是必要的。首先,通过大量地铁案例分析,得出火灾发生概率、类型和部位。其次,对研究对象的数据进行收集,测绘形成图纸,并建立模型。最后,以北京地铁西直门站为例,在确定火灾情景后,利用PyroSim模拟地铁火灾,分析火灾发生时地铁内的环境温度、烟气浓度及可见度等因素对疏散的影响;根据测量所得人员参数,利用Pathfinder模拟疏散情况,分析疏散过程中的时间点、拥挤度和疏散瓶颈等不利因素;在火灾和疏散结果对比和分析中,提出地铁火灾疏散路线的规划及对策,建立多套消防救援方案,分析合理的救援路线,并对地铁内部的应急防控能力提出建议。     

基于风险评价的核应急分区疏散规划*

为保障核事故应急疏散的时效性和安全性,降低核事故损失,基于核辐射时空分布特征,对疏散集中点和疏散路网进行风险评价,提出分区疏散组织策略,结合行政区划法,完成核电站场外疏散区域划分;将总暴露风险作为优化目标,构建基于元胞传输的分区疏散规划模型,并以我国某沿海核电站为研究对象,验证分区疏散方案可行性。研究结果表明:考虑核辐射风险后的分区疏散方案,能够有效提高疏散效率,保障公众安全,降低疏散时间和暴露风险,优化疏散期间交通状况。研究结果可为核应急疏散组织工作提供参考。     

民航人因失误分类框架

人因失误分类是否系统、完整及对人误描述是否一致直接影响人误分析的结果。本文对民航中主要几种人误分析方法进行了详细评述,指出其在考虑人的认知过程和行为外在表现形式方面的不足。在对现有人误理论模型和人误分类方法详细分析的基础上,提出了民航人误分类框架。框架由人的行为过程的四个阶段“获取信息-分析处理信息-决策／计划-执行”和八类人误模式及相应的子模式构成。行为阶段与人误模式可针对具体活动进行组合,框架的使用具有灵活性。框架对保证民航中人误辨识结果的规范性和准确性具有重要意义。     

煤矿安全管理能力理论框架研究

运用文献分析和综合归纳等研究方法,对煤矿安全管理能力进行研究。通过研究得出:煤矿安全管理能力本质是一种累积专有知识的集合,是煤矿对由安全生产体系进行协调控制的过程中,诸要素相互作用形成的蕴含在煤矿内部的一种企业管理能力。具备知识属性的"人、设备、环境、制度"成为煤矿安全管理能力的构成要素,而"人的不安全行为"、"设备不安全状态"、"环境不安全条件"和"制度不安全条件"对构成要素产生不良影响,成为煤矿安全管理能力的影响因素。煤矿安全管理能力的构成要素与影响因素之间存在一种此消彼长的互动关系——构成要素越强则影响因素越弱,导致煤矿安全事故发生概率越低;构成要素越弱则影响因素越强,导致煤矿安全事故发生概率越高。     

煤矿应急管理集成信息系统设计

针对目前煤矿企业在应急管理中存在的问题,通过对国内外应急管理技术的研究成果的学习和总结,进行煤矿应急管理信息系统的需求分析,在对应急管理的理论流程、基于案例推理（CBR）等理论进行深入研究的基础上,将人工智能、关键链方法和计划调度相关理论应用到人员管理和应急计划的制定和实施过程中,结合J2EE、SOA、GIS和GPS等技术,实现煤矿应急管理信息系统功能设计与集成设计,并借此推进煤矿企业在应急管理方面的发展,将事前预警与事后响应相结合,降低煤矿突发事件的危害程度。     

2014年我国煤矿事故统计与规律分析

为了更深入地研究我国煤矿事故的一般性规律,基于2014年我国煤矿事故数据,采用数理统计的方法对煤矿百万t死亡率、事故区域、类型、月份、时间段、诱因6个维度进行了研究.结果表明:湖南省、重庆市煤矿事故发生频率较高,贵州省瓦斯事故发生频率较高;瓦斯事故、顶板事故是导致人员伤亡的主要事故类型,瓦斯爆炸是煤矿瓦斯事故的主要类型;8月煤矿事故情况较为严重;10:00-11:59是煤矿事故频发时间;违章作业是导致煤矿事故发生的主要诱因.同时,针对煤矿事故发生规律提出了相应的对策措施.     

我国煤矿事故的特征及微观原因分析

按照事故总量、所有制结构和事故类型对我国煤矿安全事故分析,虽然近几年我国安全生产形势有所好转,事故起数和死亡人数都有不同程度的下降,但事故总量依然很大,与发达国家相比还有一定差距,安全生产形势依然严峻。从微观层面分析了主要原因,包括开采自然条件复杂、管理方法和技术装备水平有限、煤矿企业超能力生产以及从业人员素质不高等。     

复杂建筑空间人员应急疏散的无人机引导模型研究*

为提升紧急情况下复杂建筑空间中应急疏散引导的疏散效率,采用仿真模拟方法,提出1套可适用于复杂建筑空间人员应急疏散的无人机引导模型,该模型通过改进传统算法和构建新方法,实现无人机空间遍历移动规则寻优、无人机引导路径寻优以及基于“障碍物空间场域”建筑空间区域划分。研究结果表明:相较于没有无人机引导,采用单无人机和多无人机协同引导疏散,可大幅缩短整体疏散时间,有效减少疏散路径当量长度,提高疏散效率并保证路径安全,为无人机在应急救援和疏散的应用提供新思路。     

基于耦合协调度的煤矿安全应急管理评价

针对煤矿安全应急管理主动性和协调性缺乏易导致矿难事故发生的问题,提出基 于网络层次分析法（ANP）与序参量法的安全应急管理耦合协调度评价模型。通过归纳 煤矿安全应急管理进程中的耦合协调度,构建包括5个子系统、11个序参量以及33个二 级指标的煤矿安全应急管理耦合协调度评价指标体系。借助超级决策软件确定各指标权 重,然后采用序参量法对煤矿安全应急管理的预防、准备、响应和恢复4个环节进行协 调度测算。结果表明:示例煤矿安全应急管理的准备与响应两环节的各子系统协调度最 高,系统整体协调度较低。