Evolution of road risk disparities at small-scale level: example of Belgium

PROBLEM: Road accident outcomes are traditionally analyzed at state or road network level due to a lack of aggregated data and suitable analytical methods. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate usefulness of a simple spatiotemporal modeling of road accident outcomes at small-scale geographical level. METHOD: Small-area spatiotemporal Bayesian models commonly used in epidemiological studies reveal the existence of spatial correlation in accident data and provide a mechanism to quantify its effect. The models were run for Belgium data for the period 2000-2005. Two different scale levels and two different exposure variables were considered under Bayesian hierarchical models of annual accident and fatal injury counts. The use of the conditional autoregressive (CAR) formulation of area specific relative risk and trend terms leads to more distinctive patterns of risk and its evolution. The Pearson correlation tests for relative risk rates and temporal trends allows researchers to determine the development of risk disparities in time. RESULTS: Analysis of spatial effects allowed the identification of clusters with similar risk outcomes pointing toward spatial structure in road accident outcomes and their background mechanisms. From the analysis of temporal trends, different developments in road accident and fatality rates in the three federated regions of Belgium came into light. Increasing spatial disparities in terms of fatal injury risk and decreasing spatial disparities in terms of accident risk with time were further identified. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The application of a space-time model to accident and fatal injury counts at a small-scale level in Belgium allowed identification of several areas with outstandingly high accident (injury) records. This could allow more efficient redistribution of resources and more efficient road safety management in Belgium.     

Driving circumstances and accidents among novice drivers

OBJECTIVE: The study evaluated the accident risk of certain driving circumstances and driving motives among novice drivers. METHODS: Self-reported exposure and accidents according to driving circumstances and driving motives were compared between young (n = 6,847) and middle-aged (n = 942) male and female novice drivers. For young drivers, self-reported accidents were further compared to fatal accidents (n = 645) in terms of the driving conditions in which they occurred. The survey was conducted in 2002 and the questions regarding the quantity and quality of driving exposure and accidents covered the first four years of the novice drivers' driving career after licensing. Data on fatal accidents related to the period of 1990 to 2000. RESULTS: Leisure-time driving, driving just for fun, and driving with passengers and during evenings and at night was more typical for young drivers than for middle-aged drivers. For middle-aged drivers, the most typical driving was driving to or from work. Driving on errands was more typical for females than males. Nighttime driving was overrepresented in young drivers' self-reported and fatal accidents, compared to the share of young drivers' driving at night. Slippery road conditions were over-represented in young male drivers' self-reported accidents, but not in their fatal accidents, whereas for young females slippery road conditions seemed to increase the propensity of fatal accidents. CONCLUSIONS: The study concluded that some driving conditions increase the risk of certain types of accidents among certain driver groups, but not among all drivers. For example, slippery road conditions were overrepresented in young male drivers' minor (self-reported) accidents, but not in their fatal accidents. For young female drivers slippery road conditions seem to increase the propensity of fatal accidents. Driving circumstances are different in minor (self-reported) and fatal accidents. When drawing conclusions regarding accident risk, it is important to determine the seriousness of the accidents which take place.     

Exposure-based assessment of the effectiveness of Michigan’s graduated driver licensing nighttime driving restriction

The objective of the study is to assess the effectiveness of Michigan’s graduated driver licensing (GDL) program in terms of nighttime driving restriction. The research uses the quasi-induced exposure technique to capture and represent the exposure and accident risk change of the impacted driver groups due to the implementation of the GDL program. Six years of Michigan accident data were used, including three years before the GDL implementation and three years after. The effectiveness of Michigan’s GDL program in terms of nighttime driving is reflected in several dimensions: for the impacted drivers (16- and 17-year-olds), there is a significant reduction of exposure compared to the reference group and a decrease in the relative accident involvement ratio (thus a reduced accident risk); and examination of time of day distributions of impacted teenage drivers shows that there is a conspicuous percentage drop of impacted teenage drivers at the point where the nighttime curfew starts. With the implementation of the GDL program, the affected group tends to drive increasingly more in the several hours prior to the restricted time period to avoid violating the curfew law. As opposed to the traditional exposure measurements such as population or licensed drivers, quasi-induced exposure technique has the capability of depicting the accident propensity and quantifying exposure change from different age groups.     

Factors affecting accident severity inside and outside urban areas in Greece

Objectives: This research aims to identify and analyze the factors affecting accident severity through a macroscopic analysis, with a focus on the comparison between inside and outside urban areas. Disaggregate road accident data for Greece for the year 2008 were used. Methods: Two models were developed, one for inside and one for outside urban areas. Because the dependent variable had 2 categories, killed/severely injured (KSI) and slightly injured (SI), the binary logistic regression analysis was selected. Furthermore, this research aims to estimate the probability of fatality/severe injury versus slight injury as well as to calculate the odds ratios (relative probabilities) for various road accident configurations. The Hosmer and Lemeshow statistic and other diagnostic tests were conducted in order to assess the goodness-of-fit of the model. Results: From the application of the models, it appears that inside urban areas 3 types of collisions (sideswipe, rear-end, with fixed object/parked car), as well as involvement of motorcycles, bicycles, buses, 2 age groups (18-30 and older than 60?years old), time of accident, and location of the accident, seem to affect accident severity. Outside urban areas, 4 types of collisions (head-on, rear-end, side, sideswipe), weather conditions, time of accident, one age group (older than 60?years old), and involvement of motorcycles and buses were found to be significant. Conclusions: Factors affecting road accident severity only inside urban areas include young driver age, bicycles, intersections, and collision with fixed objects, whereas factors affecting severity only outside urban areas are weather conditions and head-on and side collisions, demonstrating the particular road users and traffic situations that should be focused on for road safety interventions for the 2 different types of networks (inside and outside urban areas). The methodology and the results of this research may provide a promising tool to prioritize programs and measures to improve road safety in Greece and worldwide.     

Hazard and Risk Perception among Young Novice Drivers

Young novice drivers are overrepresented in road accidents. Although they quickly acquire the skills needed to control a motor vehicle, it takes much longer for novice drivers to develop the higher-order perceptual and cognitive skills necessary to safely interact with the driving environment. The aim of this paper is to propose a model of the processes mediating behavior around traffic hazards and to critically review the literature on novice drivers within the framework provided by the model. Compared to experienced drivers, novice drivers detect hazards less quickly and efficiently and perceived them less holistically. The detection of hazards is proposed to provide the requisite information for risk perception, the process which includes assessing both the level of risk posed by a hazard and one's ability to deal with the hazard effectively. Research indicates that young drivers underestimate the risk of an accident in a variety of hazardous situations. At the same time, they overestimate their own driving skill. Young drivers are also more willing to accept risk while driving than experienced drivers. These factors are likely to contribute to young novice drivers overrepresentation in accidents. Opportunities for further research are discussed.     

Older driver crash rates in relation to type and quantity of travel

It is a well-established phenomenon that, notwithstanding their overall good crash record, older drivers have a higher than average rate of involvement in injury crashes when the rate is calculated by dividing crash numbers by distance driven. It has been hypothesised that at least some of this higher crash rate is an artefact of the different nature of driving undertaken by many older drivers. For example, driving in congested urban environments provides more opportunities for collisions than driving the same distance on a motorway. However, there have been few opportunities to investigate this theory, as relevant data are difficult to acquire. High-quality data from the New Zealand Travel Survey (1997/1998) were combined with crash data to enable a statistical model to estimate the risk of driver groups under various driving conditions characterised by the type of road used, time of day, day of week, and season of year. Despite elevated crash risks per distance driven compared with middle-aged drivers for most road types, older drivers were as safe as any other age group when driving on motorways. Accounting for the fragility of older drivers and their passengers in the risk estimates for other road types, older drivers appeared to have daytime risks comparable to 25-year-olds and night-time risks as low as any other age group. The driving patterns of older drivers (in terms of when and where they drive) were estimated to minimize their risks in comparison with the driving patterns of other age groups. These results are of interest to both policy makers and transportation planners working against the background of inevitable increases in the number of older drivers as the population ages.     

Investigating safety of vulnerable road users in selected EU countries

Problem: Vulnerable road users comprise over half of all road accident victims in the EU and their safety situation is not improving as fast as for motorists. The paper examines factors affecting fatality risk of pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and moped riders in seven EU countries using data from CARE database. Method: Comparing accident severity indicators between countries is problematic because of data quality issues, different degree of underreporting, and different exposure levels. To avoid bias arising from these issues, fatality risk is modeled with binary logistic regression. Risk factors considered include accident location by area type, junction type, and traffic control, as well as lighting condition. Results are presented as odds ratios of fatal accident outcome in different countries under specific circumstances compared to reference conditions. It is shown that the error in OR values due to underreporting is small. Results and discussion: Wide confidence intervals of the odds ratios in some countries confirm problems with accident data quality. Fatality risk is always higher for non-urban versus urban area and for darkness versus daylight conditions, but the odds ratios are different for different countries. Inconsistent results are obtained for accident location with respect to junction and its control type. Possible reasons for these differences are suggested and discussed. Practical applications: The proposed method avoids the data quality bias of accident severity indicators, thus, it can be used in international comparisons of vulnerable road user accidents. The article findings also support the concept of changes in legislation, such as reducing the speed limit in urban areas in Poland at night. Generally, the experience of countries with low VRU fatality risk identified in the article can be transferred to those with a higher risk.     

Investigation of powered 2-wheeler accident involvement in urban arterials by considering real-time traffic and weather data

Objective: Understanding the various factors that affect accident risk is of particular concern to decision makers and researchers. The incorporation of real-time traffic and weather data constitutes a fruitful approach when analyzing accident risk. However, the vast majority of relevant research has no specific focus on vulnerable road users such as powered 2-wheelers (PTWs). Moreover, studies using data from urban roads and arterials are scarce. This study aims to add to the current knowledge by considering real-time traffic and weather data from 2 major urban arterials in the city of Athens, Greece, in order to estimate the effect of traffic, weather, and other characteristics on PTW accident involvement.

Methods: Because of the high number of candidate variables, a random forest model was applied to reveal the most important variables. Then, the potentially significant variables were used as input to a Bayesian logistic regression model in order to reveal the magnitude of their effect on PTW accident involvement.

Results: The results of the analysis suggest that PTWs are more likely to be involved in multivehicle accidents than in single-vehicle accidents. It was also indicated that increased traffic flow and variations in speed have a significant influence on PTW accident involvement. On the other hand, weather characteristics were found to have no effect.

Conclusions: The findings of this study can contribute to the understanding of accident mechanisms of PTWs and reduce PTW accident risk in urban arterials.     

A geographical perspective on driving attitudes and behaviour among young adults in urban and rural Norway

Studies have shown that the driver’s risk behaviour is a significant contributor to the difference in road traffic accident risk between urban and rural areas. The aim of the study is to achieve a better understanding of the relatively high risk for rural youths compared to urban youths. A cross-sectional survey with 484 drivers aged 19–24 years is used to compare self-reported risk behaviour in urban, peri-urban and rural areas. A stratified random sample was made to ensure respondents from different area types. The results show an urban–rural gradient in risk-taking behaviour. Attitudes towards road safety partly explain individual variation in risk behaviour; however, they fail to erase the urban–rural gradient. The findings suggest a complex interaction of the system risk (the road environment) and elements of risk-culture beyond road safety attitudes.     

Relationship between traffic fatalities and drunk driving in Japan

OBJECTIVE: The present study was performed to clarify the relation between alcohol use and traffic fatalities in accidents involving motor vehicles in Japan. METHODS: Data on traffic accidents were collected from Fukuoka Prefectural Police records of traffic accidents which occurred in that prefecture between 1987 and 1996. Multiple logistic regression models were used to assess the effect of alcohol use on the risk of traffic-accident death. RESULTS: The data showed that 58,421 male drivers were involved in traffic accidents during the 10-year study period, and that 271 of these were killed as a result of the accident. Alcohol use was significantly associated with speed, seat belt use, time, and road form. Among male motorcar drivers, the odds ratio of alcohol use before driving, after adjusting for age, calendar year, time, and road form, was 4.08 (95% confidence interval, 3.08-5.40), which means that about 75% of fatalities (attributable risk percent among exposed) might have been prevented if drivers had not drunk before driving. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol use before driving resulted in a 4.08-fold increase in the risk of death in a traffic accident. It is suggested that alcohol use is considered an important risk factor for fatality in traffic accidents.     

Analyses of rear-end crashes based on classification tree models

OBJECTIVE: Signalized intersections are accident-prone areas especially for rear-end crashes due to the fact that the diversity of the braking behaviors of drivers increases during the signal change. The objective of this article is to improve knowledge of the relationship between rear-end crashes occurring at signalized intersections and a series of potential traffic risk factors classified by driver characteristics, environments, and vehicle types. METHODS: Based on the 2001 Florida crash database, the classification tree method and Quasi-induced exposure concept were used to perform the statistical analysis. Two binary classification tree models were developed in this study. One was used for the crash comparison between rear-end and non-rear-end to identify those specific trends of the rear-end crashes. The other was constructed for the comparison between striking vehicles/drivers (at-fault) and struck vehicles/drivers (not-at-fault) to find more complex crash pattern associated with the traffic attributes of driver, vehicle, and environment. RESULTS: The modeling results showed that the rear-end crashes are over-presented in the higher speed limits (45-55 mph); the rear-end crash propensity for daytime is apparently larger than nighttime; and the reduction of braking capacity due to wet and slippery road surface conditions would definitely contribute to rear-end crashes, especially at intersections with higher speed limits. The tree model segmented drivers into four homogeneous age groups: < 21 years, 21-31 years, 32-75 years, and > 75 years. The youngest driver group shows the largest crash propensity; in the 21-31 age group, the male drivers are over-involved in rear-end crashes under adverse weather conditions and the 32-75 years drivers driving large size vehicles have a larger crash propensity compared to those driving passenger vehicles. CONCLUSIONS: Combined with the quasi-induced exposure concept, the classification tree method is a proper statistical tool for traffic-safety analysis to investigate crash propensity. Compared to the logistic regression models, tree models have advantages for handling continuous independent variables and easily explaining the complex interaction effect with more than two independent variables. This research recommended that at signalized intersections with higher speed limits, reducing the speed limit to 40 mph efficiently contribute to a lower accident rate. Drivers involved in alcohol use may increase not only rear-end crash risk but also the driver injury severity. Education and enforcement countermeasures should focus on the driver group younger than 21 years. Further studies are suggested to compare crash risk distributions of the driver age for other main crash types to seek corresponding traffic countermeasures.     

Fatality risk assessment and modeling of drivers responsibility for causing traffic accidents in Dubai

Introduction: This paper examines crash and safety statistics from the Emirate of Dubai in an attempt to identify factors responsible for making this population at greater risk of crashes compared to other countries. Problem: In developing countries such as the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.), motor-vehicle-related mortalities frequently exceed those of the industrialized nations of North America and Europe. Method: Fatality and injury data used in the analysis mainly come from Dubai Emirate police reports and from other relevant international sources. Groups of the population are identified according to associated risk and exposure factors. Influence and strength of the most common risk factors are quantified using relative risk, the Lorenz curve, and the Gini index. Further analysis employed logit modeling, and possible predictors available in Dubai police reports, to estimate probability and odds ratios associated with drivers that are deemed responsible for causing traffic accidents. Results: Traffic fatality risk was found to be higher in Dubai, compared to some developed nations, and to vary considerably between different classes of road users and groups of the resident population. The likelihood of a driver causing an accident is considerably higher for those driving goods vehicles, but it is also associated with other factors. Impact: Results provide epidemiological inferences about traffic mortality and morbidity, and suggest priorities and appropriate measures for intervention, targeting resident population.     

Exploring relationships between microscopic kinetic parameters of tires under normal driving conditions,road characteristics and accident types

IntroductionFreeway accidents are a leading cause of death in China, which also triggers substantial economic loss and an emotional burden to society. However, the internal mechanism of how microscopic kinetic parameters of vehicles influenced by road characteristics determine the occurrence of different types of accidents has not been explicitly studied. This research aimed to explore the “link role” of tire microscopic kinetic parameters in road characteristic variables and traffic accidents to aid in facilitating the traffic design and management, and thus to prevent traffic accident. Method: A mountain freeway in Zhejiang Province, China was used as the research object and the data used in this paper were obtained through a real-time vehicle experiment. Multiple estimation models, including the standard ordered logit (SOL) model, fixed parameters logit (FPL) model, and random parameters logit (RPL) model were established. Results: The findings show that road characteristics will affect the longitudinal kinetic characteristics of the vehicle and, consequently, map the level of risk of rear-end accidents. Driving compensation effects were also identified in this paper (i.e., the drivers tend to be more cautious in complicated driving circumstances). Another finding relating to the mountain freeway is that different tunnel characteristics (e.g., tunnel entrance and tunnel exit) have different effects on different types of traffic accidents. Practical Applications: The framework proposed in this article can provide new insight for researchers to enlarge the research subjects of both explanatory and outcome variables in accident analysis. Future research could be implemented to consider more driving conditions.     

Behavior and lifestyle characteristics of male Kuwaiti drivers

Introduction: The high traffic accident risk among young drivers is a well-known and well-documented fact in most countries. Lifestyle has proven to affect driving behavior as well as accident risk. This study covers the lifestyle component of the problems related to young male Kuwaiti drivers’ accident risk. Methods: The purpose of the study is to measure the relationship between lifestyle and accident risk. Lifestyle is measured through a questionnaire, where 302 male Kuwaiti drivers (mean age = 28 years; range 25-35 years) answer 39 questions related to behavioral and social factors, road conditions, police enforcement, and life satisfaction. They also report their involvement in accidents and traffic violations. Results: The questionnaire's validity and reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.7) were achieved. Principal component analysis reduced the 39 items on the questionnaire to 5 factors. Inadequate police enforcement is strongly correlated (r = 0.862) to accident risk and traffic violations and is thus considered the best predictor of traffic accidents in Kuwait. Impact on Industry: As driving-related incidents (on-the-job and off-the-job) are a significant source of fatalities and lost-work-days, the study points to the importance of considering cultural factors in the design of comprehensive safety programs for industry.     

Road accidents,an occupational risk

Road accidents sustained at work represent between 20% and 40% of work fatalities in most industrialised countries, yet few data on occupational road accident risk factors have been published. A case control study was performed to assess the role of work-related risk factors in the occurrence of occupational road accidents. A preliminary qualitative study was carried out to identify possible occupational factors in occupational road accidents, and to draw up the case control study. Cases were recruited from the Rhône road trauma registry (France), controls from voting lists. A telephone interview was performed. Exposure to road risk was measured as a percentage of work time. One hundred and forty-six cases and 440 matched controls were interviewed. Accident risk was found to increase with exposure. Driving was associated with more difficult working conditions than found in jobs not involving driving. These difficulties, however, were not systematically associated with increased occupational road accident risk. Among factors which still emerge after adjustment for road risk exposure, there are scheduling issues (inflexible schedule organisation, lack of consecutive rest-days, lack of flexibility in performing the work), difficulties of communication with superiors, low seniority in the activity, low educational level and physical constraints at work. This study highlights some possible occupational road accident risk factors. Given the chosen case/control methodology, the findings may be considered as advancing our knowledge of the subject, but need confirmation by further studies.     

基于三维GIS的油罐区应急管理平台研究与实现

分析油罐区危险特性和事故模式,将三维GIS系统、日常管理、监控预警、应急指挥与辅助决策等功能进行集成,建立基于三维GIS的油罐区一体化应急管理平台。该平台利用数据融合技术,将液位、可燃气体、温度等多参数进行了融合,提高了报警可靠性。同时构建了DEA-BP应急资源配置模型,结合罐区事故类型,实现了罐区重大事故应急资源的优化配置。平台还提供数字化预案和三维应急演练,为油罐区员工提高应急安全技能提供了培训环境。     

Influence of personality traits on aberrant driving behaviors: A comparison of Japanese,Chinese, and Vietnamese drivers

Introduction: This study aims to explore the influence of Big Five personality traits in combination with various socio-demographic factors and experiences of accident involvement on aberrant driving behaviors. The study also compares the effects of the level of development (i.e., developed or developing) of three countries on the personality traits and driving behaviors. Method: The four-factor Driver Behavior Questionnaire was used to collect data on aberrant driving behaviors, while a short version of the 10-item Big Five Inventory was used to collect data on personality traits. Responses were collected from Japan (1,250 responses), China (1,250), and Vietnam (1,000). A latent variable model was applied after controlling data in each category (e.g., age). Results: This study revealed that respondents who experienced accidents in the past and scored higher on Agreeableness were less likely to commit aggressive violations in Japan, China, and Vietnam. Further, Japanese and Vietnamese female drivers who scored high on Conscientiousness were found to be less likely to commit ordinary violations. Neuroticism was positively correlated with aggressive violations only in the case of Vietnamese drivers, irrespective of the history of accident involvement. Conclusions: Drivers with particular personality types that are linked with aberrant driving behavior may need to receive additional training on behavior management. Practical Applications: This study may help road traffic policymakers predict future driving behaviors of Vietnamese and Chinese drivers based on those of Chinese and Japanese drivers, respectively, and act accordingly.     

Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials

IntroductionThe effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece.MethodRandom Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively.ResultsRegarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity.ConclusionsThe study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms.Practical applicationThe identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials.