空间贫困分异特征、陷阱形成与致贫因素分析

消除贫困是中国共产党的一项重要历史使命。目前,中国脱贫攻坚进入关键的决战决胜阶段,精准脱贫成为实现乡村振兴及全面建成小康社会的关键问题。本文以贫困突出的江西革命老区为例,采用ESDA空间探索性分析和空间计量模型,探究其空间贫困分异特征、陷阱形成机制及影响因素,发现:①从时间维度看,2000—2016年,受国家贫困标准线大幅调整影响,江西革命老区贫困人口和贫困发生率呈现三个断点下降时期,总体脱贫进程加快。②从空间维度看,江西革命老区各县(市、区)的贫困人口和贫困发生率明显减少,贫困分异特征表现为高贫困地区集聚于南部的集中连片区或国家级贫困县,低贫困地区主要集聚于北部的非贫困区。③进一步通过空间检验发现,江西革命老区贫困以"高-高"集聚模式为主,并形成"空间贫困陷阱",均属于集中连片特困区或国家级贫困县;少数地区的贫困还存在"低-低"集聚模式,形成"脱贫溢出效应",均属于非贫困区。④实证结果表明,城乡收入之比和中学教师负担学生数显著加剧了江西革命老区贫困水平;而农民人均纯收入、卫生技术人员比例和农业机械化水平对减贫具有显著正向作用;贫困空间滞后项的显著为正也再次验证了江西革命老区"空间贫困陷阱"及"脱贫溢出效应"的存在性;相邻地区的农民人均纯收入和卫生技术人员比例的减贫效果存在显著的空间溢出效应。为此,本文提出实现江西革命老区精准脱贫建议。     

矿业权集聚、经济增长与区域贫困减缓

本文基于泰尔指数法,计算并测度了中国资源富集区的城乡收入差距与行业(矿业)收入差距,然后结合矿业权集聚度的测度结果和中国资源税改革的变动特征,建立面板数据回归模型,考察了2004—2014年中国资源富集区矿业权集聚与经济增长、贫困减缓的长期关系。本文的主要结论是:资源税对矿业权集聚水平和矿业经济增长具有正向刺激作用,但矿业经济增长并不利于地区经济的整体改进,也不利于区域贫困减缓。资源税低水平征收对"资源诅咒"和"区域贫困"具有传导效应,进而对资源富集区的贫困减缓形成阻滞作用。另外,矿业权集聚对地区贫困的影响存在异质性,异质性揭示了区域资源性收益分配存在的差异。短期来看,矿业权集聚使中央企业惠及更多,是引致"富饶中的贫困"怪圈的重要原因;但长期来看,随着矿业权集聚度的提升,地方政府获得的累积性资源性收益不断上升,渐次增强了地方政府通过社会保障支出实施收入调节的能力,总体上有利于区域贫困的减缓。因此,为实现资源富集区的精准扶贫,资源主管部门在制定减贫措施前,应根据不同区域特点区别对待,短期内应着力于调整资源性收益分配机制,赋予地方更多资源性收益,并加大对社会的保障性支出;长期来看,应探索建立合理有效的资源税体制,促进经济增长方式的多样化,并鼓励科技创新,进一步提高社会群体的受教育程度,从根本上改变区域贫困产生的内生性环境和外生性环境。     

旅游需求波动、风险管理与非线性减贫效应研究

旅游发展能够有效匹配贫困人口的资源禀赋,是产业扶贫的重要支撑。为更好地发挥旅游的减贫效用,本文基于旅游波动和风险管理视角对旅游发展与贫困减缓的多样化关联进行了逻辑统一,在使用HP滤波方法测度旅游需求波动的基础上,使用门限面板模型对2000-2013年中国旅游发展的非线性减贫效应进行了实证检验。实证结果显示:旅游波动是影响旅游发展减贫效应的重要因素,但国内旅游波动和入境旅游波动的减贫效应存在异质性。国内旅游波动主要体现为上行波动,能够在增长的稳定预期下,有助于旅游企业和包括贫困人口在内的旅游从业者进行专业化供给,从而有助于减贫。旅游发展的减贫效应体现出双门限的非线性特征,在旅游发展的初始阶段,并未能体现出显著的减贫效果,越过第一个门限值后,旅游减贫效应开始凸显,但在第二门限值之后,处于第三阶段旅游发展减贫弹性递减。因此,旅游产业具备成为阶段性重要减贫动力来源的潜力,但在旅游扶贫政策的制定和实施中,应秉持辩证和动态视角,当意识到旅游减贫效应已经步入递减区间时,要进行主动、系统、综合的风险管理。理解外部环境变化对旅游发展冲击的潜在结果,通过旅游需求结构和产业结构的调整提升贫困人口应对风险冲击的韧性,并通过互助、保险等风险应对手段,促进资源在不同风险状态之间的转移,提升旅游减贫绩效。     

Population, environment and poverty in Pakistan: linkages and empirical evidence

This study explores the interlinkages among population, environment and poverty and presents empirical evidence in a developing country like Pakistan. It gives alternative views on population environment linkages. It explains poverty trap, market based harmony, and dual effect of poverty on the basis of a link between population growth and natural resource degradation. In addition, the paper also highlights social and political instability through population-poverty-environment spiral. It also presents empirical evidence on population-environment-poverty nexus in Pakistan. It also compares environmental sustainability index and human development index for selected Asian countries. The paper also gives scores for different components of environmental sustainability index for Pakistan and compares these with India. The paper concludes that the causal relationship between poverty and environment works in both directions, often through changes in GDP and population. Population stress does not have any significant direct effect on all aspects of environmental status in Pakistan.

Research on targeted land poverty alleviation patterns based on the precise identification of dominant factors of rural poverty: a case study of Siyang County,Jiangsu Province,China

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Poverty is a common problem faced by various social and economic forms. Eliminating poverty is a major issue of common concern and research all over...     

专业化、多样化与产业结构减贫效应的动态异质表现研究

新一轮扶贫攻坚阶段,贫困地区实现可持续减贫的关键不在于现有经济增长模式下如何提高转移支付的精度和效率,而在于真正改变贫困地区的经济发展理念,从盯住经济总量增长转向用减贫目标统领经济发展。产业结构与贫困减缓的关系影响着贫困地区产业发展的政策制定,但既往研究对何种产业结构更有助于贫困减缓没有形成共识。本文基于产业专业化和多样化视角,分析了专业化、多样化影响贫困减缓的理论机制,并利用2004—2014年中国省级面板数据,对专业化、相关多样化、不相关多样化与FGT贫困指数的关系进行了门限回归和稳健性检验。检验结果确认了产业结构减贫效应的动态异质表现:专业化的减贫效应在产品生命周期的初始和发展阶段趋于增强,并且经济密度更小、距离技术前沿更远的地区,专业化的减贫效果更显著;多样化的减贫绩效低于专业化,且相关多样化的减贫效应高于不相关多样化。细分产业来看,第三产业相关多样化比其他多样化结构更具减贫效果。贫困地区在减贫的产业结构选择上,首要目标是改善专业化程度,其次是在多样化的既定前提下,谋求相关多样化,尤其是第三产业的相关多样化。专业化和相关多样化对不同贫困群体的影响也存在差别,既往产业结构更有利于贫困线附近群体的贫困减缓,而对深度贫困群体的溢出不足。因此,在塑造合宜减贫产业结构,改善低技能劳动力需求的同时,还应辅以改善深度贫困人口劳动力供给的政策,改善其自我发展能力和经济机会,从而增强从益贫产业结构中获益的能力。     

三峡库区移民贫困致因的精准识别与减贫路径的实证研究

随着我国经济发展和扶贫成效的显现,老区、山区、民族地区和移民库区等集中连片的特殊贫困区已经成为我国当前精准扶贫的主战场。由于面临生产资料匮乏、生态环境恶化和地质灾害频发等恶劣环境,库区移民贫困问题已成为新时期扶贫攻坚最难啃的"硬骨头"。因此,开展库区移民贫困致因的精准识别与减贫路径研究具有重要的现实意义。基于对库区移民贫困现状的扎根理论分析,本文提出了分析农户生计的新框架。在此基础上,本文以三峡库区26个县(区)为研究对象,随机抽取4县(区)796户移民作为样本,首先,采用灰色关联分析法和熵权法对库区移民主要致贫因子进行挖掘;接着,采用PLS-SEM模型分析影响库区移民生计状况的关键因子和关键路径。研究表明:(1)三峡库区移民贫困现象仍很严重,患病、劳动能力弱和失地是移民致贫的三大主因。三峡库区仍有175.94万人生活在贫困线以下,三大致贫原因依次是:因病致贫26.49%、因劳动能力弱致贫22.10%和失地致贫21.65%。(2)心理资本可有效促进移民其他资本效能的发挥,对生计状况存在着显著的直接效应和间接效应。(3)在影响生计状况的四类资本中,人力资本对库区移民生计状况影响最大。基于以上发现,本文提出了实现库区移民精准脱贫的政策建议:(1)国家应高度重视三峡库区移民贫困问题,大力开展精准扶贫;(2)增加心理干预措施以提高移民心理资本存量,帮助移民摆脱心理贫困;(3)开展劳动力技能培训,提高库区移民人力资本水平。     

From poverty trap to ecosystem service curse

In spite of broad and positive expectations, payments for ecosystem services (PES) can bring about unexpected and negative consequences, especially in terms of their impacts on the well-being of local communities dependent on ecosystems. Based on numerous observations of recurring problems with PES, we put forward an ecosystem service curse hypothesis (Kronenberg and Hubacek in Ecol Soc 18:art.10. doi: 10.5751/ES-05240-180110, 2013), that points to counterintuitive negative development outcomes for countries and regions rich in ecosystem services. The social and economic problems that we have been able to depict in many PES schemes reflect the persistence of maladaptive states in pursuit of sustainability. Instead of providing an opportunity to break out of poverty, these problems reflect entrapment, which is most often related to poor quality of institutions. Here we highlight the linkages between the ecosystem service curse hypothesis and the dynamic system stability landscapes discussed in this special issue. Our article consists of three parts in which we: (1) present the original ecosystem service curse hypothesis; (2) link this hypothesis to the broader discussions relevant to sustainability science; and (3) highlight the context of traps on which this special feature focuses.     

产业精准扶贫作用机制研究

在精准扶贫的国家战略下,产业扶贫被赋予了新的内涵,承担起贫困户的"造血"功能,成为精准扶贫的核心,本文将其概括为"产业精准扶贫"。与已有研究不同,文章以产业精准扶贫与传统产业扶贫的区别以及产业精准扶贫怎样发挥作用这一科学问题为研究对象,综合运用了实地观察法、问卷调查法和深度访谈法,从微观尺度研究产业精准扶贫的作用机制。研究表明:(1)与传统产业扶贫停留在村一级或者大户层面不同,产业精准扶贫将产业透过村庄到农户,而且与贫困户的土地、资本和劳动力等生产要素有机地结合起来。(2)产业精准扶贫作用机制是通过利益相关方共同对土地、资本和劳动力等生产要素进行匹配的过程。产业精准扶贫突显了贫困户的主体性作用,着重强调贫困户自身拥有的土地、劳动力要素的参与,真正建构了多主体、多要素参与的长效机制。(3)产业精准扶贫是一个共同参与的过程。农户或是入股、务工或是自己发展产业,积极参与到农业生产中,通过政府引导、企业管理、村两委参与,促进贫困户参与在生产过程中,就产业过程中的事项达成共识,促进了贫困户的公民精神培育、实用技术掌握和思想观念转变。(4)产业精准扶贫是实现贫困人口增收发展的有效路径,但仍需注意风险防患。扶贫信息发布、帮扶单位责任人等扶贫利益相关者的组织和传播,为企业和社会资本进入贫困村奠定基础,但是,也相应地增加了产品销售问题和产业自然灾害的风险,产业贴补和金融扶持政策的稳定性也会影响产业精准扶贫的运行和成效。因此,要相应地加强对扶贫产业风险的预警,规避和降低产业扶贫风险。     

Livelihood strategies,environmental dependency and rural poverty: the case of two villages in rural Mozambique

This article attempts to explore the nexus between rural households’ environmental dependency, poverty and livelihood strategies. Households’ income from each livelihood activities formed the basis for categorizing households according to livelihood strategies. The principal component analysis, agglomerative hierarchical and the k-means cluster analysis were employed to determine the four livelihood clusters and to assign households to the identified livelihood strategies. Households’ environmental dependency, poverty and asset holding were compared across the strategies, and the determinants of livelihood choice were analyzed using multinomial logit model. The results indicate the existence of marked differences in environmental dependency, rural poverty and asset endowments across the livelihood groups. Household’s total saving, access to credit, production implements, business cost, exposure to agricultural shock determined household’s access to a more remunerative livelihood strategy. Incomes from each livelihood activities for the identified livelihood strategies were analyzed, and their implications were also discussed.     

Production, Consumption and the World Summit on Sustainable Development

At the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), world leaders agreed that eliminating unsustainable production and consumption is one of the three overriding objectives of sustainable development. Achieving that objective should have been a major priority for the WSSD Plan of Implementation. Increases in consumption and production over the past decade were largely responsible for the worsening environmental and social trends. Unfortunately, the negotiators of the Plan paid insufficient attention to the lessons from 10 years of discussions about the concepts, the available policies and tools and their effectiveness, the impacts of those policies on developing countries, and the political commitment of countries in an era of globalization. Despite a promising proposal for a new ten-year work programme aimed at bridging the gap implementing the Agenda 21 commitments from Rio, Summit negotiators produced barely more than a muted echo of recommendations from the past which have yet to be taken seriously enough by the world's leaders in a comprehensive intergovernmental strategy. In the ten-year review of progress to achieve sustainable production and consumption (SPAC), governments quickly skipped past the critical work of examining why things are getting worse, avoiding the task of identifying the obstacles (which in some cases were themselves) and in turn avoiding the commitment to time-bound measurable targets. If nothing else, the WSSD demonstrated that a global strategy to achieve SPAC will come not from a UN consensus of world leaders but from a strategic alliance of responsible governments, civil society and others with a vision beyond the next election cycle.     

低碳世界中的中国:地位、挑战与战略

“低碳经济”最早见诸于政府文件是在2003年的英国能源白皮书《我们能源的耒来：创建低碳经济》。2007年是全球高度关注气候变化和推动低碳经济的一年．人们期望通过低碳经济模式与低碳生活方式。实现可持续发展。UNDP2007／2008年人类发展报告指出：2004年中国的人均碳足迹为3．8CO2t／人,显著地低于美国、加拿大、日本、俄国、英国和法国。J．W．Tester等运用碳排放Kaya公式分析表明：尽管20年间中国的能源强度年平均降低了5．22％,碳强度年平均降低了0．26％．但由于人口多。加上人均GDP年增长为世界的6．6倍。而碳强度年均降低不到世界的58％．使得碳排放年均增长达4％。中国面临着能源禀赋、发展水平、总量突出和锁定效应等挑战。因此。中国的应对战略主要有：构建可持续发展的能源对策框架,坚持不懈地节能减排,高度重视全球气候变化。大力发展可再生能源,积极推进核电建设与科学发展替代能源等。     

Sanitation entrepreneurship in rural Indonesia: a closer look

Enterprises are playing increasing roles in facilitating access to sanitation products and services in Indonesia and other developing economies. This study investigated the factors affecting the sustainability of sanitation enterprises in rural Indonesia. Interviews with 33 organisations representing sanitation enterprises, associations of sanitation enterprises, national and international civil society organisations (CSOs), donor organisations and national and local government agencies were conducted to explore different stakeholder perceptions about enterprise roles. The research revealed factors specific to the sanitation entrepreneurs themselves, such as their skills, entrepreneurial traits, pro-social motivations and intrinsic motivations, as well as factors within their enabling environment. Insufficient customer demand, inadequate capacity building opportunities, lack of financing options for entrepreneurs and their customers, and limited government support were observed to undermine sanitation enterprise success. Industry associations were found to be a useful intermediary support mechanism, particularly in the absence of significant government support for enterprises. However, such associations could also stifle innovation, and their role needs to be carefully developed, including financially sustainable models for such associations. This study has implications for how governments and CSOs in Indonesia and elsewhere might best support the role of enterprises and entrepreneurship towards improved sanitation outcomes.     

Fuel poverty increases risk of mould contamination,regardless of adult risk perception & ventilation in social housing properties

IntroductionFuel poverty affects 2.4 million UK homes leading to poor hygrothermal conditions and risk of mould and house dust mite contaminations, which in turn increases risk of asthma exacerbation. For the first time we assess how fuel poverty, occupants' risk perception and use of mechanical ventilation mediate the risk of mould contamination in social housing.MethodsPostal questionnaires were sent to 3867 social housing properties to collect adult risk perception, and demographic and environmental information on occupants. Participant details were linked to data pertaining to the individual properties. Multiple logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios and confidence intervals while allowing for clustering of individuals coming from the same housing estate. We used Structured Equation Modelling and Goodness of Fit analysis in mediation analyses to examine the role of fuel poverty, risk perception, use of ventilation and energy efficiency.ResultsEighteen percent of our target social housing populations (671 households) were included into our study. High risk perception (score of 8–10) was associated with reduced risk of mould contamination in the bedrooms of children (OR 0.5 95% CI; 0.3–0.9) and adults (OR 0.4 95% CI; 0.3–0.7). High risk perception of living with inadequate heating and ventilation reduced the risk of mould contamination (OR 0.5 95% CI; 0.3–0.8 and OR 0.5 95% CI; 0.3–0.7, respectively). Participants living with inadequate heating and not heating due to the cost of fuel had an increased risk of mould contamination (OR 3.4 95% CI; 2.0–5.8 and OR 2.2 95% CI; 1.5–3.2, respectively). Increased risk perception and use of extractor fans did not mediate the association between fuel poverty behaviours and increased risk of mould contamination.DiscussionFuel poverty behaviours increased the risk of mould contamination, which corresponds with existing literature. For the first time we used mediation analysis to assess how this association maybe modified by occupant behaviours. Increased risk perception and use of extractor fans did not modify the association between fuel poverty and mould contamination. This suggests that fuel poor populations may not benefit from energy efficiency interventions due to ineffective heating and ventilation practices of those occupants residing participating households. Our findings may be modified by a complex interaction between occupant behaviours and the built environment. We found that participant age, occupancy, SES, pets, drying washing indoors, geographic location, architectural design/age of the property, levels of insulation and type of heating regulated risk of mould contamination.ConclusionFuel poverty behaviours affected around a third of participating households and represent a risk factor for increased exposures to damp and mouldy conditions, regardless of adult risk perception, heating and ventilation practices. This requires multidisciplinary approach to assess the complex interaction between occupant behaviours, risk perception, the built environment and the effective use of heating and ventilation practices.Study implicationsOur findings have implications for housing policies and future housing interventions. Effective communication strategies focusing on awareness and perception of risk may help address indoor air quality issues. This must be supported by improved household energy efficiency with the provision of more effective heating and ventilation strategies, specifically to help alleviate those suffering from fuel poverty.     

Environment and sustainability of the Middle Route,South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China: a close look

In many arid and semiarid regions, water scarcity, population increase and frequent droughts are exerting great pressures on water resources. Presently, the Mid-route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (MRSN) was built to mitigate the water crisis in the north of China by long-distance transfer of water from the Yangtze River in southern China. This study investigated the running condition of the MRSN, including operation management, freezing situation and water quality. Water samples were also taken from different sites and then analyzed in laboratory. Results suggest that the project was reasonably designed and the project management was excellent. Closed management was adopted in the project to protect water quality. The sediment concentrations and water turbidities of the water samples were in the range of 0.2–0.8 kg/m³ and 0.8–1.7 NTU, respectively, which met or were close to the standards of drinking water in China. Water freezing is also not a problem, since the thickest ice was only 0.9 cm even in the coldest season as the authors measured the investigation, and at the same time, the ice booms worked well. In the future, it is promising that to effectively integrate the methods of self-rescuing and water importing could fundamentally conquer water shortage, reasonably allocate water resources and finally achieve the harmonious development of economics, ecology and society.