Determination of bromacil transport as a function of water and carbon content in soils

This study was conducted to determine the significance of bromacil transport as a function of water and carbon content in soils and to explore the implications of neglecting sorption when making assessments of travel time of bromacil through the vadose zone. Equilibrium batch sorption tests were performed for loamy sand and sandy soil added with four different levels of powdered activated carbon (PAC) content (0, 0.01, 0.05, and 0.1%). Column experiments were also conducted at various water and carbon contents under steady-state flow conditions. The first set of column experiments was conducted in loamy sand containing 1.5% organic carbon under three different water contents (0.23, 0.32, and 0.41) to measure breakthrough curves (BTCs) of bromide and bromacil injected as a square pulse. In the second set of column experiments, BTCs of bromide and bromacil injected as a front were measured in saturated sandy columns at the four different PAC levels given above. Column breakthrough data were analyzed with both equilibrium and nonequilibrium (two-site) convection-dispersion equation (CDE) models to determine transport and sorption parameters under various water and carbon contents. Analysis with batch data indicated that neglect of the partition-related term in the calculation of solute velocity may lead to erroneous estimation of travel time of bromacil, i.e. an overestimation of the solute velocity by a factor of R. The column experiments showed that arrival time of the bromacil peak was larger than that of the bromide peak in soils, indicating that transport of bromacil was retarded relative to bromide in the observed conditions. Extent of bromacil retardation (R) increased with decreasing water content and increasing PAC content, supporting the importance of retardation in the estimation of travel time of bromacil even at small amounts of organic carbon for soils with lower water content.     

Estimating spatially-variable first-order rate constants in groundwater reactive transport systems

Numerical reactive transport models are often used as tools to assess aquifers contaminated with reactive groundwater solutes as well as investigating mitigation scenarios. The ability to accurately simulate the fate and transport of solutes, however, is often impeded by a lack of information regarding the parameters that define chemical reactions. In this study, we employ a steady-state Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), a data assimilation algorithm, to provide improved estimates of a spatially-variable first-order rate constant λ through assimilation of solute concentration measurement data into reactive transport simulation results. The methodology is applied in a steady-state, synthetic aquifer system in which a contaminant is leached to the saturated zone and undergoes first-order decay. Multiple sources of uncertainty are investigated, including hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer and the statistical parameters that define the spatial structure of the parameter field. For the latter scenario, an iterative method is employed to identify the statistical mean of λ of the reference system. Results from all simulations show that the filter scheme is successful in conditioning the λ ensemble to the reference λ field. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the estimation of the λ values is dependent on the number of concentration measurements assimilated, the locations from which the measurement data are collected, the error assigned to the measurement values, and the correlation length of the λ fields.     

Near surface soil vapor clusters for monitoring emissions of volatile organic compounds from soils

The overall objective of this research was to develop and test a method of determining emission rates of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and other gases from soil surfaces. Soil vapor clusters (SVCs) were designed as a low dead volume, robust sampling system to obtain vertically resolved profiles of soil gas contaminant concentrations in the near surface zone. The concentration profiles, when combined with a mathematical model of porous media mass transport, were used to calculate the contaminant flux from the soil surface. Initial experiments were conducted using a mesoscale soil remediation system under a range of experimental conditions. Helium was used as a tracer and trichloroethene was used as a model VOC. Flux estimations using the SVCs were within 25% of independent surface flux estimates and were comparable to measurements made using a surface isolation flux chamber (SIFC). In addition, method detection limits for the SVC were an order of magnitude lower than detection limits with the SIFC. Field trials, conducted with the SVCs at a bioventing site, indicated that the SVC method could be easily used in the field to estimate fugitive VOC emission rates. Major advantages of the SVC method were its low detection limits, lack of required auxiliary equipment, and ability to obtain real-time estimates of fugitive VOC emission rates.     

Near Surface Soil Vapor Clusters for Monitoring Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds from Soils

ABSTRACT

The overall objective of this research was to develop and test a method of determining emission rates of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and other gases from soil surfaces. Soil vapor clusters (SVCs) were designed as a low dead volume, robust sampling system to obtain vertically resolved profiles of soil gas contaminant concentrations in the near surface zone. The concentration profiles, when combined with a mathematical model of porous media mass transport, were used to calculate the contaminant flux from the soil surface. Initial experiments were conducted using a mesoscale soil remediation system under a range of experimental conditions. Helium was used as a tracer and trichloroethene was used as a model VOC. Flux estimations using the SVCs were within 25% of independent surface flux estimates and were comparable to measurements made using a surface isolation flux chamber (SIFC). In addition, method detection limits for the SVC were an order of magnitude lower than detection limits with the SIFC. Field trials, conducted with the SVCs at a bioventing site, indicated that the SVC method could be easily used in the field to estimate fugitive VOC emission rates. Major advantages of the SVC method were its low detection limits, lack of required auxiliary equipment, and ability to obtain realtime estimates of fugitive VOC emission rates.     

Methods for quantifying variability and uncertainty in AP-42 emission factors: case studies for natural gas-fueled engines

Quantitative methods for characterizing variability and uncertainty were applied to case studies of oxides of nitrogen and total organic carbon emission factors for lean-burn natural gas-fueled internal combustion engines. Parametric probability distributions were fit to represent inter-engine variability in specific emission factors. Bootstrap simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in the fitted cumulative distribution function and in the mean emission factor. Some methodological challenges were encountered in analyzing the data. For example, in one instance, five data points were available, with each data point representing a different market share. Therefore, an approach was developed in which parametric distributions were fitted to population-weighted data. The uncertainty in mean emission factors ranges from as little as approximately +/-10% to as much as -90 to +180%. The wide range of uncertainty in some emission factors emphasizes the importance of recognizing and accounting for uncertainty in emissions estimates. The skewness in some uncertainty estimates illustrates the importance of using numerical simulation approaches that do not impose restrictive symmetry assumptions on the confidence interval for the mean. In this paper, the quantitative method, the analysis results, and key findings are presented.     

Assessing the natural attenuation of organic contaminants in aquifers using plume-scale electron and carbon balances: model development with analysis of uncertainty and parameter sensitivity

A quantitative methodology is described for the field-scale performance assessment of natural attenuation using plume-scale electron and carbon balances. This provides a practical framework for the calculation of global mass balances for contaminant plumes, using mass inputs from the plume source, background groundwater and plume residuals in a simplified box model. Biodegradation processes and reactions included in the analysis are identified from electron acceptors, electron donors and degradation products present in these inputs. Parameter values used in the model are obtained from data acquired during typical site investigation and groundwater monitoring studies for natural attenuation schemes. The approach is evaluated for a UK Permo-Triassic Sandstone aquifer contaminated with a plume of phenolic compounds. Uncertainty in the model predictions and sensitivity to parameter values was assessed by probabilistic modelling using Monte Carlo methods. Sensitivity analyses were compared for different input parameter probability distributions and a base case using fixed parameter values, using an identical conceptual model and data set. Results show that consumption of oxidants by biodegradation is approximately balanced by the production of CH4 and total dissolved inorganic carbon (TDIC) which is conserved in the plume. Under this condition, either the plume electron or carbon balance can be used to determine contaminant mass loss, which is equivalent to only 4% of the estimated source term. This corresponds to a first order, plume-averaged, half-life of > 800 years. The electron balance is particularly sensitive to uncertainty in the source term and dispersive inputs. Reliable historical information on contaminant spillages and detailed site investigation are necessary to accurately characterise the source term. The dispersive influx is sensitive to variability in the plume mixing zone width. Consumption of aqueous oxidants greatly exceeds that of mineral oxidants in the plume, but electron acceptor supply is insufficient to meet the electron donor demand and the plume will grow. The aquifer potential for degradation of these contaminants is limited by high contaminant concentrations and the supply of bioavailable electron acceptors. Natural attenuation will increase only after increased transport and dilution.     

Simulation of carrier-facilitated transport of phenanthrene in a layered soil profile

The appropriate prediction of the fate of the contaminant is an essential step when evaluating the risk of severe groundwater pollutions-in particular in the context of natural attenuation. We numerically study the reactive transport of phenanthrene at the field scale in a multilayer soil profile based on experimental data. The effect of carrier facilitation by dissolved organic carbon is emphasized and incorporated in the model. Previously published simulations are restricted to the saturated zone and/or to homogeneous soil columns at the laboratory scale. A numerical flow and transport model is extended and applied to understand and quantify the relevant processes in the case of a strongly sorbing hydrophobic organic compound that is subject to carrier facilitation in the unsaturated zone. The contaminant migration is investigated on long- and short-term time scales and compared to predictions without carrier facilitation. The simulations demonstrate the importance of carrier facilitation and suggest strongly to take this aspect into account. By carrier facilitation breakthrough times at the groundwater level decreased from 500 to approximately 8 years and concentration peaks increased by two orders of magnitude in the long-term simulation assuming a temporary spill in an initially unpolluted soil with a non-sorbing carrier.     

Methods for Quantifying Variability and Uncertainty in AP-42 Emission Factors: Case Studies for Natural Gas-Fueled Engines

Abstract

Quantitative methods for characterizing variability and uncertainty were applied to case studies of oxides of nitrogen and total organic carbon emission factors for lean-burn natural gas-fueled internal combustion engines. Parametric probability distributions were fit to represent inter-engine variability in specific emission factors. Bootstrap simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in the fitted cumulative distribution function and in the mean emission factor. Some methodological challenges were encountered in analyzing the data. For example, in one instance, five data points were available, with each data point representing a different market share. Therefore, an approach was developed in which parametric distributions were fitted to population-weighted data. The uncertainty in mean emission factors ranges from as little as ~±10% to as much as -90 to 21+180%. The wide range of uncertainty in some emission factors emphasizes the importance of recognizing and accounting for uncertainty in emissions estimates. The skewness in some uncertainty estimates illustrates the importance of using numerical simulation approaches that do not impose restrictive symmetry assumptions on the confidence interval for the mean. In this paper, the quantitative method, the analysis results, and key findings are presented.     

Anaerobic degradation of naphthalene in a fluvial aquifer: a radiotracer study

A radiotracer study was conducted in a creosote-contaminated aquifer beneath the Fraser River, British Columbia Canada to investigate the in situ degradation of naphthalene. The groundwater is anaerobic, with abundant methane, ferrous iron and carbon dioxide. This study followed earlier work at the site where the contaminant distribution could only be explained by invoking a mass loss through degradation, even though extensive field and laboratory microcosm studies closer to the source zone onshore could not confirm degradation. Accordingly, 14C-naphthalene was injected into the aquifer offshore, further from the source zone where modeling suggested degradation was occurring. During the 230-day monitoring period, 14CO2 was detected, confirming the degradation of the radio-labeled naphthalene tracer. A zero-order degradation rate of naphthalene of 5 microg/L-day was estimated based on the decrease in 14C-naphthalene concentration with time. While the degradation pathway could not be determined from the radiotracer study alone, the geochemistry of the site suggests that either iron reduction or methanogenesis is the terminal electron accepting processes responsible for naphthalene oxidation.     

Mineralisation of 2,6-dichlorobenzamide (BAM) in dichlobenil-exposed soils and isolation of a BAM-mineralising Aminobacter sp

Mineralisation of the groundwater contaminant 2,6-dichlorobenzamide (BAM), a metabolite from the herbicide 2,6-dichlorobenzonitrile (dichlobenil), was studied in soil samples obtained from 39 locations previously exposed to dichlobenil. Rapid BAM mineralisation was detected in samples from six locations with 5.2-64.6% of the added BAM mineralised within 48-50 days. From one location rapid BAM mineralisation was observed in soil samples down to a depth of 2 m below the surface. One location with fast BAM mineralisation showed significant dichlobenil degradation activity with 25.5% of the added dichlobenil being mineralised within 50 days. By inoculating soil showing the fastest mineralisation of BAM into a mineral medium with BAM as the only carbon and nitrogen source an enrichment culture was established. Community analysis based on extracted DNA revealed a change of the bacterial community but without any clear indication of key members within the BAM-mineralising culture. Parallel cultivation resulted for the first time in the isolation of a BAM-mineralising bacterium, identified as an Aminobacter sp.     

Spatio-temporal distribution of organic and inorganic pollutants from Lake Geneva (Switzerland) reveals strong interacting effects of sewage treatment plant and eutrophication on microbial abundance

Variation with depth and time of organic matter (carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus), inorganic pollutant (mercury), as well as bacterial abundance and activity, were investigated for the first time in sediment profiles of different parts of Lake Geneva (Switzerland) over the last decades. The highest organic contents (about 32%), mercury concentration (27 mg kg⁻¹), bacterial abundance (in order of 9 × 10⁹ cell g⁻¹ dry sediment), and bacterial activity (1299 Relative Light Units (RLU)) were found in the highly polluted sediments contaminated by the waste water treatment plant (WWTP) discharge, which deposited during the period of cultural eutrophication. Such data, which contrast with the other sampled sites from deeper and more remote parts of the lake, prove that the organic matter and nutrients released from the municipal WWTP have considerable effects on bacterial abundance and activities in freshwater sediments. In fact, the relatively unpolluted deepwater sites and the coastal polluted site show large synchronous increases in bacterial densities linked to the anoxic conditions in the 1970s (lake eutrophication caused by external nutrient input) that subsequently increased the nutrient loading fluxes. These results show that the microbial activities response to natural or human-induced changing limnological conditions (e.g., nutrient supply, oxygen availability, redox conditions) constitutes a threat to the security of water resources, which in turn poses concerns for the world’s freshwater resources in the context of global warming and the degradation of water quality (oxygen depletion in the bottom water due to reduced deep waters mixing). Moreover, the accumulation of inorganic pollutants such as high mercury (methyl-mercury) concentration may represent a significant source of toxicity for sediment dwelling organisms.     

A sensitivity analysis of adsorption and degradation parameters in the modeling of pesticide transport in soils

The increasing use of deterministic models in predicting the movement of pesticides in soils, has focused attention on the evaluation of major parameters which represent attenuation factors of organics in the subsurface. These parameters are the degradation rate constant and the adsorption constant for the pesticide. In view of the large in situ variability of these parameters and of the difficulty in obtaining accurate field data, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with the results obtained from deterministic models. A sensitivity analysis is performed here to quantify the impact of such variation in each of these input parameters on the output results of an unsaturated zone transport model (PRZM). Results show that variations in these parameters about their respective mean values greatly affect the predicted concentration distributions, obtained after three years, of the pesticide aldicarb in all the soil profile. A 15–22% variation in the degradation constant, or a 24% variation in the adsorption constant, lead to a 100% uncertainty in the various simulation results defined as the cumulative quantity of aldicarb or the dissolved aldicarb concentration leached below the root zone (or the unsaturated zone) of the soil. Such a deterministic model presents a high degree of sensitivity to these input parameters. Accurate field data are then needed to obtain reliable model results in predicting pesticide movement inthe unsaturated zone.     

Kinetics of inorganic carbon utilization by microalgal biofilm in a flat plate photoreactor

A kinetic model was developed to describe inorganic carbon utilization by microalgae biofilm in a flat plate photoreactor. The model incorporates the fundamental mechanisms of diffusive mass transport and biological reaction of inorganic carbon by microalgal biofilm. An advanced numerical technique, the orthogonal collocation method and Gear's method, was employed to solve this kinetic model. The model solutions included the concentration profiles of inorganic carbon in the microalgal biofilm, the growths of suspended microalgae and microalgal biofilm, the effluent concentrations of inorganic carbon, and the flux of inorganic carbon from bulk liquid into biofilm. The batch kinetic test was independently conducted to determine biokinetic parameters used in the microalgal biofilm model simulation while initial thickness of microalgal biofilm were assumed. A laboratory-scale flat plate photoreactor with a high recycle flow rate was setup and conducted to verify the model. The volume of photoreactor is 60 l which yields a hydraulic retention time of 1.67 days. The model-generated inorganic carbon and the suspended microalgae concentration curves agreed well with those obtained in the laboratory-scale test. The fixation efficiencies of HCO(3)(-) and CO(2) are 98.5% and 90% at a steady-state condition, respectively. The concentration of suspended microalgal cell reached up to 12 mg/l at a maximum growth rate while the thickness of microalgal biofilm was estimated to be 104 microm at a steady-state condition. The approaches of experiments and model simulation presented in this study could be employed for the design of a flat plate photoreactor to treat CO(2) by microalgal biofilm in a fossil-fuel power plant.     

On the use of mean groundwater age, life expectancy and capture probability for defining aquifer vulnerability and time-of-travel zones for source water protection

Protection and sustainability of water supply wells requires the assessment of vulnerability to contamination and the delineation of well capture zones. Capture zones, or more generally, time-of-travel zones corresponding to specific contaminant travel times, are most commonly delineated using advective particle tracking. More recently, the capture probability approach has been used in which a probability of capture of P=1 is assigned to the well and the growth of a probability-of-capture plume is tracked backward in time using an advective-dispersive transport model. This approach accounts for uncertainty due to local-scale heterogeneities through the use of macrodispersion. In this paper, we develop an alternative approach to capture zone delineation by applying the concept of mean life expectancy E (time remaining before being captured by the well), and we show how life expectancy E is related to capture probability P. Either approach can be used to delineate time-of-travel zones corresponding to specific travel times, as well as the ultimate capture zone. The related concept of mean groundwater age A (time since recharge) can also be applied in the context of defining the vulnerability of a pumped aquifer. In the same way as capture probability, mean life expectancy and groundwater age account for local-scale uncertainty or unresolved heterogeneities through macrodispersion, which standard particle tracking neglects. The approach is tested on 2D and 3D idealized systems, as well as on several watershed-scale well fields within the Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.     

典型氯碱污染场地环境风险评价

以广东某氯碱化工污染场地为研究区域,采集了场地22个土壤及地下水样品,分析了25项污染物在不同区域的分布特征及其来源。监测结果表明,煤炭堆场与锅炉房区土壤受重金属铅、镍污染。六六六、四氯化碳、三氯甲烷、六氯苯、苯是场地的特征污染物,主要分布在危险品仓库、漂洗车间与四氯化碳车间。根据监测结果开展了不同暴露途径致癌风险值及非致癌危害商的计算。结果表明,部分样品表层土壤中上述有机污染物的基于人体健康致癌风险指数均超过10-6,最高达到1.65×10-2,表明风险水平高;非致癌危害在各暴露途径下也超过可接受值1,最高达5.59×104,表明风险水平高。说明对于存在高风险的区域必须进行采取合适的措施进行修复,减缓场地再利用后对人群健康的影响。     

Remediation of RDX- and HMX-contaminated groundwater using organic mulch permeable reactive barriers

Organic mulch is a complex organic material that is typically populated with its own consortium of microorganisms. The organisms in mulch breakdown complex organics to soluble carbon, which can then be used by these and other microorganisms as an electron donor for treating RDX and HMX via reductive pathways. A bench-scale treatability study with organic mulch was conducted for the treatment of RDX- and HMX-contaminated groundwater obtained from a plume at the Pueblo Chemical Depot (PCD) in Pueblo, Colorado. The site-specific cleanup criteria of 0.55 ppb RDX and 602 ppb HMX were used as the logical goals of the study. Column flow-through tests were run to steady-state at the average site seepage velocity, using a 70%:30% (vol.:vol.) mulch:pea gravel packing to approach the formation's permeability. Significant results included: (1) Complete removal of 90 ppb influent RDX and 8 ppb influent HMX in steady-state mulch column effluent; (2) pseudo-first-order steady-state kinetic rate constant, k, of 0.20 to 0.27 h(-1) based on RDX data, using triplicate parallel column runs; (3) accumulation of reduced RDX intermediates in the steady-state column effluent at less than 2% of the influent RDX mass; (4) no binding of RDX to the column fill material; and (5) no leaching of RDX, HMX or reduction intermediates from the column fill material. The results of the bench-scale study will be used to design and implement a pilot-scale organic mulch/pea gravel permeable reactive barrier (PRB) at the site.     

A combined approach for the evaluation of a volatile organic compound emissions inventory

Emissions inventories significantly affect photochemical air quality model performance and the development of effective control strategies. However, there have been very few studies to evaluate their accuracy. Here, to evaluate a volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions inventory, we implemented a combined approach: comparing the ratios of carbon bond (CB)-IV VOC groups to nitrogen oxides (NOx) or carbon monoxide (CO) using an emission preprocessing model, comparing the ratios of VOC source contributions from a source apportionment technique to NOx or CO, and comparing ratios of CB-IV VOC groups to NOx or CO and the absolute concentrations of CB-IV VOC groups using an air quality model, with the corresponding ratios and concentrations observed at three sites (Maryland, Washington, DC, and New Jersey). The comparisons of the ethene/NOx ratio, the xylene group (XYL)/NOx ratio, and ethene and XYL concentrations between estimates and measurements showed some differences, depending on the comparison approach, at the Maryland and Washington, DC sites. On the other hand, consistent results at the New Jersey site were observed, implying a possible overestimation of vehicle exhaust. However, in the case of the toluene group (TOL), which is emitted mainly from surface coating and printing sources in the solvent utilization category, the ratios of TOL/ NOx or CO, as well as the absolute concentrations revealed an overestimate of these solvent sources by a factor of 1.5 to 3 at all three sites. In addition, the overestimate of these solvent sources agreed with the comparisons of surface coating and printing source contributions relative to NOx from a source apportionment technique to the corresponding value of estimates at the Maryland site. Other studies have also suggested an overestimate of solvent sources, implying a possibility of inaccurate emission factors in estimating VOC emissions from surface coating and printing sources. We tested the impact of these overestimates with a chemical transport model and found little change in ozone but substantial changes in calculated secondary organic aerosol concentrations.     

The Development of a Model to Examine Source-Receptor Relationships for Visibility on the Colorado Plateau

This paper describes the development and application of the Visibility and Haze in the Western Atmosphere (VISHWA) model to understand the source-receptor relationships that govern chemical species relevant to visibility degradation in the western United States. The model was developed as part of a project referred to as Visibility Assessment for Regional Emission Distributions (VARED), the objective of which is to estimate the contributions of various geographical regions, compounds, and emission

sources to light scattering and absorption by particles on the Colorado Plateau.

The VISHWA model is a modified version of a comprehensive Eulerian model, known as the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model.1 The modifications were designed to obtain the computational efficiency required to simulate a one-year period at about 1/25th of real time, and at the same time incorporate mechanistic features relevant to realistic modeling of the fate and transport of visibility degrading species. The modifications included use of a condensed chemical mechanism; incorporation of reactions to simulate the formation of secondary organic particles; and use of a semi-Lagrangian advection scheme to preserve concentration peaks during advection.

The model was evaluated with 1992 air quality data from Project MOHAVE (Measurements of Haze and Visual Effects) intensive experiments. An important conclusion of this evaluation is that aqueous-phase oxidation of SO2 to sulfate in nonprecipitating clouds makes a significant contribution to observed sulfate levels during winter as well as summer. Model estimates of ambient sulfate

for the winter intensive were within a factor of 2 of the observations for 75% of the values. The corresponding statistic for the summer intensive was 90%. Model estimates of carbon were within a factor of 2 of the limited set of observations.     

Combined application of conservative transport modelling and compound-specific carbon isotope analyses to assess in situ attenuation of benzene, toluene, and o-xylene

In recent years, compound specific isotope analyses (CSIA) have developed into one of the most powerful tools for the quantification of in situ biodegradation of organic contaminants. In this approach, the calculation of the extent of biodegradation of organic contaminants in aquifers is usually based on the Rayleigh equation, and thus neglects physical transport processes such as dispersion that contribute to contaminant dilution in aquifers. Here we combine compound specific isotope analyses with a conservative transport model to study the attenuation of aromatic hydrocarbons at a former gasworks site. The conservative transport model was first used to simulate concentration reductions caused by dilution at wells downgradient of a BTEX source. In a second step, the diluted concentrations, together with the available stable carbon isotope ratios and carbon fractionation factors for benzene, toluene and o-xylene were applied in the Rayleigh equation to quantify the degree of biodegradation at each of those wells. At the investigated site, where other attenuation processes such as sorption and volatilisation were proven to be negligible, the combined approach is recommended for benzene, which represents a compound for which the effect of biodegradation is comparable to or less than the effect of dilution. As demonstrated for toluene and o-xylene, the application of the Rayleigh equation alone is sufficient if dilution can be proved to be insignificant in comparison to biodegradation. The analysis also suggests that the source width and the position of the observation wells relative to the plume center line are significantly related to the degree of dilution.     

Assessment of exposure to PCB 153 from breast feeding and normal food intake in individual children using a system approach model

Investigators have typically relied on a single or few discrete time points as measures of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) body burden, however health effects are more likely to be the result of integrative exposure in time, optionally expressed as an area under the time curve (AUC) of PCB serum concentration. Using data from a subgroup of 93 infants from a birth cohort in eastern Slovakia—a region highly polluted by PCBs—we fit a system type model, customized to our longitudinal measures of serum PCB concentrations in cord, 6, 16, and 45 month blood specimens. The most abundant congener, PCB 153, was chosen for modeling purposes. In addition to currently used methods of exposure assessment, our approach estimates a concentration time profile for each subject, taking into account mean residence time of PCB 153 molecules in the body, duration of breast feeding, hypothetical PCB 153 concentration in steady-state without breast feeding and alternately without normal food intake. Hypothetical PCB 153 concentration in steady-state without normal food intake correlates with AUC (r = 0.84, p < 0.001) as well as with duration of breast feeding (r = 0.64, p < 0.001). It makes possible to determine each subject’s exposure profile expressed as AUC of PCBs serum concentration with a minimum model parameters. PCB body burden in most infants was strongly associated with duration of breast feeding in most, but not all children, was apparent from model output.