决策树模型在水环境监测网络中选取代表性样点的应用

地表水体中的硝酸盐污染已经成为全球关注的热点环境问题之一。现今,国内外均建立了相关的监测网络对地表水体的水质实施长期监测,但是却导致大量的监测数据累积,给后续的科学研究工作带来了不便,尤其是在庞大的监测网络中如何选取有代表性样点的研究点则成为急需解决的问题之一。以比利时弗拉芒地区地表水的长期监测物理化学指标为例,利用决策树模型评估地表水样点的硝酸盐污染来源专家分类的有效性,为点位优化提供理论依据。原有监测点位的污染源专家分类和模型输出的可匹配率为80%,优化后监测点位从原有47个点降低到30个点,提高了监测工作效率。     

A knowledge-based approach to regional acidification modelling

Data from over 2000 stations and knowledge from experts on atmospheric transport, soil geochemistry, lake chemistry, wetland processes and acidification modelling were assembled in an expert system. The data were grouped by aggregates of tertiary watersheds based on water chemistry knowledge. A set of expert rules was used to determine which of six existing models was most appropriate for a given set of data. Comparison of computed and observed alkalinity indicated median relative errors from 11.3–17.9%, with regression slopes ranging from 0.91–1.18 and regression coefficients between 0.82 and 0.99. The expert model performance was further confirmed with paleolimnological data and other independent sets of data. The sensitivity of the predicted alkalinity was illustrated by changing some of the rules. Given that the rules were acceptable by experts and produced reasonable agreement with observations, the knowledge-based system seemed a viable approach to the impact assessment of acidic deposition.     

遥感技术在察布查尔县土壤侵蚀调查中的应用

依据陆地卫星TM遥感影像资料,在ERDAS软件下,通过室内判读与野外调查相结合的方法,解译出土地利用类型图、植被覆盖度图、坡度图。在建立知识库的基础上,利用土壤侵蚀专家分类系统,快速获得察布查尔县土壤侵蚀分类分级状况,为今后该区域的水土保持工作提供参考和依据。     

Developing an environmental water quality monitoring program for Haraz River in Northern Iran

Water quality management plans are an indispensable strategy for conservation and utilization of water resources in a sustainable manner. One common industrial use of water is aquaculture. The present study is an attempt to use statistical analyses in order to prepare an environmental water quality monitoring program for Haraz River, in Northern Iran. For this purpose, the analysis of a total number of 18 physicochemical parameters was performed at 15 stations during a 1-year sampling period. According to the results of the multivariate statistical methods, the optimal monitoring would be possible by only 3 stations and 12 parameters, including NH₃, EC, BOD, TSS, DO, PO₄, NO₃, TDS, temperature, turbidity, coliform, and discharge. In other words, newly designed network, with a total number of 36 measurements (3 stations × 12 parameters = 36 parameters), could achieve exactly the same performance as the former network, designed based on 234 measurements (13 stations × 18 parameters = 234 parameters). Based on the results of cluster, principal component, and factor analyses, the stations were divided into three groups of high pollution (HP), medium pollution (MP), and low pollution (LP). By clustering the stations, it would be possible to track the water quality of Haraz River, only by one station at each cluster, which facilitates rapid assessment of the water quality in the river basin. Emphasizing on three main axes of monitoring program, including measurement parameters, sampling frequency, and spatial pattern of sampling points, the water quality monitoring program was optimized for the river basin based on natural conditions of the study area, monitoring objectives, and required financial resources (a total annual cost of about US $2625, excluding the overhead costs).     

An expert system for environmental data management

In this paper we show the possibility of using expert system tools for environmental data management. We describe the domain indenpendent expert system shell SAK and Knowledge EXplorer, a system which learns rules from data. We show the functionality of Knowledge EXplorer on an example of water quality evaluation.     

Some comments on analysis techniques for censored water quality data

When investigating trace substances in ambient water, a proportion of water sample concentrations is usually below limits of detection. In medical and industrial reliability studies, comparisons are often made of time to event data which includes right censored observations indicating only that an observation is greater than a specified value. In this paper consideration is given to the application of non-parametric procedures, widely used in the analysis of time to event data, to water quality data which is left censored.A non-parametric estimate of the cumulative distribution function for left censored water quality data can be generated quite easily. For the comparison of levels of trace substances it is necessary to combine an unconditional likelihood for the proportion of observations below a detection limit with a partial likelihood for the portion of the distribution above the detection limit in order to make use of regression methodology. The details of this are outlined and an example is given which compares levels of toxic substances at the head and mouth of the Niagara river.When comparisons are based on matched pair data, further modifications are necessary. A development paralleling that for time to event data is given. Consideration is also given to model extensions which allow for a dependence between observations at the same location over a period of time.The presentation is introductory and designed to illustrate the potential of some available methodology for use in the analysis of water quality data.     

An expert system for water quality modelling

The RAISON-micro (Regional Analysis by Intelligent System ON a micro-computer) expert system is being used to predict the effects of mine effluents on receiving waters in Ontario. The potential of this system to assist regulatory agencies and mining industries to define more acceptable effluent limits was shown in an initial study. This system has been further developed so that the expert system helps the model user choose the most appropriate model for a particular application from a hierarchy of models. The system currently contains seven models which range from steady state to time dependent models, for both conservative and nonconservative substances in rivers and lakes. The menu driven expert system prompts the model user for information such as the nature of the receiving water system, the type of effluent being considered, and the range of background data available for use as input to the models. The system can also be used to determine the nature of the environmental conditions at the site which are not available in the textual information database, such as the components of river flow. Applications of the water quality expert system are presented for representative mine sites in the Timmins area of Ontario.     

Determination of an acceptable assimilable organic carbon (AOC) level for biological stability in water distribution systems with minimized chlorine residual

There is considerable interest in minimizing the chlorine residual in Japan because of increasing complaints about a chlorinous odor in drinking water. However, minimizing the chlorine residual causes the microbiological water quality to deteriorate, and stricter control of biodegradable organics in finished water is thus needed to maintain biological stability during water distribution. In this investigation, an acceptable level of assimilable organic carbon (AOC) for biologically stable water with minimized chlorine residual was determined based on the relationship between AOC, the chlorine residual, and bacterial regrowth. In order to prepare water samples containing lower AOC, the fractions of AOC and biodegradable organic matter (BOM) in tap water samples were reduced by converting into biomass after thermal hydrolysis of BOM at alkaline conditions. The batch-mode incubations at different conditions of AOC and chlorine residual were carried out at 20°C, and the presence or absence of bacterial regrowth was determined. The determined curve for biologically stable water indicated that the acceptable AOC was 10.9 μg C/L at a minimized chlorine residual (0.05 mg Cl₂/L). This result indicated that AOC removal during current water treatment processes in Japan should be significantly enhanced prior to minimization of the chlorine residual in water distribution.     

Water quality monitoring and assessment of an urban Mediterranean lake facilitated by remote sensing applications

Degradation of water quality is a major problem worldwide and often leads to serious environmental impacts and concerns about public health. In this study, the water quality monitoring and assessment of the Koumoundourou Lake, a brackish urban shallow lake located in the northeastern part of Elefsis Bay (Greece), were evaluated. A number of water quality parameters (pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, electrical conductivity, turbidity, nutrients, and chlorophyll-a concentration) were analyzed in water samples collected bimonthly over a 1-year period from five stations throughout the lake. Moreover, biological quality elements were analysed seasonally over the 1-year period (benthic fauna). Statistical analysis was performed in order to evaluate the water quality of the lake and distinguish sources of variation measured in the samples. Furthermore, the chemical and trophic status of the lake was evaluated according to the most widely applicable classification schemes. Satellite images of Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper were used in order for algorithms to be developed and calculate the concentration of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). The trophic status of the lake was characterized as oligotrophic based on phosphorus and as mesotrophic–eutrophic based on Chl-a concentrations. The results of the remote sensing application indicated a relatively high coefficient of determination (R ²) among point sampling results and the remotely sensed data, which implies that the selected algorithm is reliable and could be used for the monitoring of Chl-a concentration in the particular water body when no field data are available.     

Assessment of anthropogenic threats to Chilean Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems: Literature review and expert opinions

Anthropogenic threats and their impacts on aquatic ecosystems have traditionally been evaluated only through literature reviews. Within the last decade, however, expert opinions have become an increasingly popular alternative for gaining complementary information to literature reviews. This study employed a standardized method for collecting bibliographic data combined with synthesize expert opinions to establish a current knowledge baseline on threats to Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems in Chile.We revised 79 scientific articles that included a variety of taxonomic groups containing fish (n = 32); macroinvertebrates (n = 17); amphibians (n = 18); freshwater plants (n = 8); and two taxonomic groups simultaneously (n = 4). From this review, we identified 14 threats, with land-use change, species introductions, and industrial/domestic effluents as salient factors. These findings were in agreement with results from expert opinion surveys (n = 46 researchers). An analysis by taxonomic group indicated freshwater fishes as most threatened by hydropower plants. Aquatic plants were most threatened by mining. Amphibians were most threatened by changes in soil use whereas aquatic macroinvertebrates by industrial/domestic effluents. Remarkably, the magnitude of threats identified in the literature review was of similar order than those catalogued by experts. Moreover, the primary threats identified here align with those reported in other Mediterranean regions of the world. Our combined approach using literature review and expert opinion was useful in determining the consistency of the main threats to each taxonomic group. Our findings can be used as a baseline to further research and in prioritizing management strategies for threatened Mediterranean ecosystems worldwide.     

A ten year summary of concurrent ambient water column and sediment toxicity tests in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: 1990-1999

The goal of this study was to identify the relative toxicity ofambient areas in the Chesapeake Bay watershed by using a suiteof concurrent water column and sediment toxicity tests at seventy-five ambient stations in 20 Chesapeake Bay rivers from1990 through 1999. Spatial and temporal variability was examinedat selected locations throughout the 10 yr study. Inorganicand organic contaminants were evaluated in ambient water andsediment concurrently with water column and sediment tests toassess possible causes of toxicity although absolute causalitycan not be established. Multivariate statistical analysis wasused to develop a multiple endpoint toxicity index (TOX-INDEX) at each station for both water column and sediment toxicity data. Water column tests from the 10 yr testing period showed that49% of the time, some degree of toxicity was reported. The mosttoxic sites based on water column results were located inurbanized areas such as the Anacostia River, Elizabeth River andthe Middle River. Water quality criteria for copper, lead,mercury, nickel and zinc were exceeded at one or more of thesesites. Water column toxicity was also reported in localizedareas of the South and Chester Rivers. Both spatial and temporalvariability was reported from the suite of water column toxicitytests. Some degree of sediment toxicity was reported from 62% of the tests conducted during the ten year period. The ElizabethRiver and Baltimore Harbor stations were reported as the most toxic areas based on sediment results.Sediment toxicity guidelines were exceeded for one or more of thefollowing metals at these two locations: arsenic, cadmium,chromium, copper, lead, nickel and zinc. At the Elizabeth Riverstations nine of sixteen semi-volatile organics and two of sevenpesticides measured exceeded the ER-M values in 1990. Ambientsediment toxicity tests in the Elizabeth River in 1996 showedreduced toxicity. Various semi-volatile organics exceeded the ER-M values at a number of Baltimore Harbor sites; pyrene anddibenzo(a,h)anthracene were particularly high at one of thestations (Northwest Harbor). Localized sediment toxicity was alsoreported in the Chester, James, Magothy, Rappahannock, andPotomac Rivers but the link with contaminants was not determined.Both spatial and temporal variability was less for sedimenttoxicity data when compared with water column toxicity data. Acomparison of water column and sediment toxicity data for thevarious stations over the 10 yr study showed that approximatelyhalf the time agreement occurred (either both suite of testsshowed toxicity or neither suite of tests showed toxicity).     

Small drinking water systems under spatiotemporal water quality variability: a risk-based performance benchmarking framework

Traditional approaches for benchmarking drinking water systems are binary, based solely on the compliance and/or non-compliance of one or more water quality performance indicators against defined regulatory guidelines/standards. The consequence of water quality failure is dependent on location within a water supply system as well as time of the year (i.e., season) with varying levels of water consumption. Conventional approaches used for water quality comparison purposes fail to incorporate spatiotemporal variability and degrees of compliance and/or non-compliance. This can lead to misleading or inaccurate performance assessment data used in the performance benchmarking process. In this research, a hierarchical risk-based water quality performance benchmarking framework is proposed to evaluate small drinking water systems (SDWSs) through cross-comparison amongst similar systems. The proposed framework (R _WQI framework) is designed to quantify consequence associated with seasonal and location-specific water quality issues in a given drinking water supply system to facilitate more efficient decision-making for SDWSs striving for continuous performance improvement. Fuzzy rule-based modelling is used to address imprecision associated with measuring performance based on singular water quality guidelines/standards and the uncertainties present in SDWS operations and monitoring. This proposed R _WQI framework has been demonstrated using data collected from 16 SDWSs in Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec, Canada, and compared to the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment WQI, a traditional, guidelines/standard-based approach. The study found that the R _WQI framework provides an in-depth state of water quality and benchmarks SDWSs more rationally based on the frequency of occurrence and consequence of failure events.     

Integrating data-driven ecological models in an expert-based decision support system for water management in the Du river basin (Vietnam)

In this study, classification trees were combined with the Water Framework Directive (WFD)-Explorer, a modular toolbox that supports integrated water management in a river basin to evaluate the impact of different restoration measures on river ecology. First, the WFD-Explorer toolbox analysed the effect of different restoration options on the abiotic river characteristics based on the water and substance balance embedded in the simulation environment. Based on these abiotic characteristics, the biological index Biological Monitoring Working Party for Vietnam was then predicted by classification trees that were trained on biological and abiotic data collected in the Du river basin in northern Vietnam. The ecological status of streams in the basin ranged from nearly pristine headwaters to severely impacted river stretches. Elimination of point sources from ore extraction and decentralised domestic wastewater treatment proved to be the most effective measures to improve the ecological condition of the Du river basin. The combination of the WFD-Explorer results with data-driven models enabled model application in a situation where expert knowledge was lacking. Consequently, this approach appeared promising for decision support in the context of river restoration and conservation management.     

Consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation in EIA practice — Perspectives of actors in Austria and Germany

Current political discussions and developments indicate the importance and urgency of incorporating climate change considerations into EIA processes. The recent revision of the EU Directive 2014/52/EU on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) requires changes in the EIA practice of the EU member states. This paper investigates the extent to which the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) can contribute to an early consideration of climate change consequences in planning processes. In particular the roles of different actors in order to incorporate climate change impacts and adaptation into project planning subject to EIA at the appropriate levels are a core topic. Semi-structured expert interviews were carried out with representatives of the main infrastructure companies and institutions responsible in these sectors in Austria, which have to carry out EIA regularly. In a second step expert interviews were conducted with EIA assessors and EIA authorities in Austria and Germany, in order to examine the extent to which climate-based changes are already considered in EIA processes. This paper aims to discuss the different perspectives in the current EIA practice with regard to integrating climate change impacts as well as barriers and solutions identified by the groups of actors involved, namely project developers, environmental competent authorities and consultants (EIA assessors/practitioners). The interviews show that different groups of actors consider the topic to different degrees. Downscaling of climate change scenarios is in this context both, a critical issue with regards to availability of data and costs. Furthermore, assistance for the interpretation of relevant impacts, to be deducted from climate change scenarios, on the specific environmental issues in the area is needed. The main barriers identified by the EIA experts therefore include a lack of data as well as general uncertainty as to how far climate change should be considered in the process without reliable data but in the presence of knowledge about possible consequences at an abstract level. A joint strategy on how to cope with uncertain prognoses about main impacts on environmental issues for areas without reliable data requires a discussion and cooperation between EIA consultants and environmental authorities.     

The assessment of the relationship between various waterscapes and outdoor activities: Edirne,Turkey

The environment is very important in terms of the behaviours and actions of human beings, and activity–environment correlation is used frequently in outdoor arrangements. The environment must meet the requirements and expectations of society. Outdoor activities are the activities that contribute to the well-being of human beings in physical (heartbeat, respiration, blood pressure, etc.) (Ulrich, Journal of Environmental Psychology 11:210–230, 1991), psychological (fear, anxiety, depression, loneliness, stress, etc.) (Marcus and Barnes 1999) and behavioural (insomnia, nervousness, restlessness, passivity, etc.) (Ulrich 1999) terms. It is known that human beings are affected significantly by the environments they are in, and more importantly, it is known that the environment they are in affects their happiness status. The causes of this effect are the features and appearances of the spatial elements and components that mainly make up such environments. One of the elements that is used frequently in landscape is water. If one examines designed or natural open spaces, it may be observed that water has very distinctive features. Dynamic (in the form of a leak, with intense flow rate, cascade, foamy, squirting, jet, graded, etc.) and still water elements may be used with sculptures, plants, rocks and elevations (on land). This study aims to reveal which age groups of students enjoy the different types of activities with regards to water features and emotional associations that motion and characteristics of water bring out in human beings and also to reveal the water preferences of human beings, including their reasons for such preference. Thus, 20 different water compositions located in Edirne Province were selected, and in 2-min camera reels, the students of various age groups assessed water with various characteristic features via a survey. As a result, it was revealed that human beings from various age groups wish to perform different activities with water elements having distinctive characteristic features, and the types of water elements that are subject to various age groups’ like and dislike were determined. Kruskal–Wallis test was used during testing the effect of age differences. Chi-square analysis was used in order to examine the effect of age differences on preferences with regards to the activities that shall be performed at locations that include utilization of various water elements. The results reveal that while the use of water should be allowed in landscaping, selections regarding the elements of these water features should be made based on the type of activity and the age group of users in relation to the location.     

Geophysical and hydrological data assimilation to monitor water content dynamics in the rocky unsaturated zone

In recent years, geophysics is increasingly used to study the flow and transport processes in the vadose zone. Particularly, when the vadose zone is made up of rocks, it is difficult to install sensors in the subsurface to measure hydrological state variables directly. In these cases, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) represents a useful tool to monitor the hydrodynamics of the infiltration and to estimate hydraulic parameters and state variables, such as hydraulic conductivity and water content. We propose an integrated approach aimed at predicting water content dynamics in calcarenite, a sedimentary carbonatic porous rock. The uncoupled hydrogeophysical approach proposed consists in 4D ERT monitoring conducted during an infiltrometer test under falling head conditions. Capacitance probes were installed to measure water content at different depths to validate the estimations derived from ERT. A numerical procedure, based on a data assimilation technique, was accomplished by combining the model (i.e., Richards’ equation) with the observations in order to provide reliable water content estimations. We have used a new data assimilation method that is easy to implement, based on the ensemble Kalman filter coupled with Brownian bridges. This approach is particularly suitable for strongly non-linear models, such as Richards’ equation, in order to take into account both the model uncertainty and the observation errors. The proposed data assimilation approach was tested for the first time on field data. A reasonable agreement was found between observations and predictions confirming the ability of the integrated approach to predict water content dynamics in the rocky subsoil.     

滇池水环境质量综合评价指标优选

在研究2000—2014年滇池流域水污染排放的时空变化、水环境质量时空变化和生态环境时空演替基础上,结合滇池目前水环境质量监测工作要求,采用模型计算、指标特性分析、专家调查等方法,筛选出36个评价指标,分别表征滇池水环境质量的物理、化学、生物、营养、重金属、有机污染等特性,将滇池湖体4个监测点位优选出的评价指标监测数据输入水生态健康评价系统。结果表明,优选指标和评价体系能全面、准确、宏观地反映滇池水环境质量状况。将滇池评价指标由现有的94个压缩至36个,极大节省人力、物力,且更符合滇池水环境特点。     

Application of ANP and DEMATEL to evaluate the decision-making of municipal solid waste management in Metro Manila

A municipal solid waste management (MSW) expert group was consulted in order to mirror how government officials might reach an effective solution regarding municipal solid waste management in Metro Manila. A critical issue regarding this is how the expert group can better evaluate and select a favorable MSW management solution using a series of criteria. MSW management solution selection is a multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem, which requires the consideration of a large number of complex criteria. A robust MCDM method should consider the interactions among these criteria. The analytic network process (ANP) is a relatively new MCDM method which can deal with all kinds of interactions systematically. The Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) not only can convert the relations between cause and effect of criteria into a structural model, but also can be used as a way to handle the inner dependences within a set of criteria. Hence, this paper applies an effective solution based on a combined ANP and DEMATEL method to assist the expert group evaluating different MSW management solutions. According to the results, the best solution is for each city to have its own type of thermal process technology and resource recovery facility before landfill rather than entering a joint venture with enterprises or going into build-operate-transfer projects in order to be able to construct thermal process technologies and resource recovery facilities.     

基于TM资料对上海区域热环境特征的分析

为了揭示城市热岛(UHI)形成机制,以TM卫星遥感资料为主要数据源,结合地面自动气象站(AWS)实测的气象资料,利用地表能量平衡参数化(SEBAL)的方法估算了净辐射通量和土壤热通量,分析了上海区域热环境特征.结果表明,TM地表温度与AWS实测地表温度具有较好的一致性;不同类型地表其地表温度差异明显,城市道路是城市中重要热量来源,绿地和水体面积的增加能有效地减轻城市热岛强度,同时也表明了卫星遥感资料在城市气候环境研究中的潜在价值.     

Correlation of Black Smoke and Nitrogen Oxides Emissions Through Field Testing of in-Use Diesel Vehicles

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) uses water clarity as a water quality indicator for integrated assessments of coastal waters. After the publication of the first National Coastal Condition Report (USEPA, 2001c), the national water clarity reference value of 10% of ambient surface light at 1~m depth was reevaluated and modified to reflect expected differences in regional reference light conditions. These regional differences range from naturally turbid estuaries like those found in Mississippi and Louisiana to clear water estuaries expected to support extensive beds of submerged aquatic vegetation in, e.g., Florida and Tampa Bays. For the second National Coastal Condition Report, water clarity was assessed based on regional reference values (USEPA, 2004). Different regional water clarity reference values and data collection methods necessitated the development of a water clarity index based on light attenuation coefficients (k). This index incorporates regional reference conditions and is interchangeable with secchi depth and percent light transmission calculated from light meter measurements. Evaluation of the water clarity index shows that k values based on transmissivity at 1~m can be estimated from secchi depth measurements and successfully used as a surrogate for transmissivity calculated from light meter data. An approach for assessing water clarity in Gulf of Mexico estuaries using light meter data and secchi depth is presented.