Natech事件风险评估研究进展

Natech(自然灾害诱发事故灾难)事件在全球大范围内发生,造成了严重的人员伤亡、经济损失和环境破坏,已经成为风险评估领域新的研究热点之一。回顾了Natech事件的相似研究和被单独提出后的研究历程,包括:灾害链和灾害链式理论研究、多米诺效应研究和Natech事件定量风险评估研究。简要评析了目前主要的三类Natech事件研究思路:损失模型、评估指标体系和预警时间指标,并根据Natech风险评估结果,对应对Natech事件提出建议。     

天文灾害学刍议(Ⅱ)——天文灾害学研究的意义及其进展

简述了开展天文灾害学研究的意义。已有研究表明 ,一些天文因素对许多自然灾害的孕育有调制作用 ,对一些自然灾害的发生有诱发、触发的作用 ,深入开展天文灾害学研究有理论意义和应用价值。同时作者简要综述了这一交叉研究领域近些年的进展情况。     

安徽省主要自然灾害及综合减灾战略构思

本文概述了安徽省旱涝、风雹、干热风、病虫、森林,地质、地震等主要自然灾害的概况,简要分析了致灾因素和背景,强调综合减灾的必要性,提出了综合减灾的战略目标、措施、原则和部署,重点阐述了强化政府综合减灾职能、建立综合减灾管理机构、建设综合减灾信息系统、全面实施综合减灾对策、加强综合研究等战略措施,对安徽省的减灾实践和研究具有现实和长远意义。     

Let Them Eat Risk? Wealth,Rights and Disaster Vulnerability

Disaster-vulnerability reduction is an impure public good: when provided to one it is provided to others, but not equally provided to all. This means that in addition to the question of how much disaster-vulnerability reduction to provide, policymakers face the question of to whom it should be provided. This essay distinguishes between two broad classes of approaches to the latter question, one based on wealth, the other on rights.     

Vulnerability of community businesses to environmental disasters

Business plays important roles in community functioning. ² However, disaster research has been disproportionately focused on units of analysis such as families, households and government agencies. This paper synthesises the major findings within the business development research field and the disaster research field. It constructs a framework for evaluating business vulnerability to natural disasters. Our theoretical integration of the research conducted to date addresses five major issues. First, it defines the ways in which businesses are subject to the impacts of natural disasters. Second, it identifies the factors that determine the magnitude of business impacts after a disaster. Third, it identifies how and when businesses return to their pre-disaster level in the disaster stricken community. Fourth, it describes measures that can be taken by individual firms and community planners to reduce the impacts of environmental disasters. Fifth, it identifies needs for public policy and future research to reduce business vulnerability to environmental disasters.     

Assessing differences in chemical disaster proneness: The community chemical hazard vulnerability inventory*

The burgeoning number of accidents with dangerous chemicals makes it incumbent upon community and regional planners to systematically deal with this problem. The first step invariably involves the assessment of the likelihood and type of incident which may impact a given area so that disasters may be averted or, at least, their effects mitigated. This paper presents one such assessment scheme, the Community Chemical Hazard Vulnerability Inventory (CCHVI). This instrument, aside from considering the type and volume of substances posing a threat to a designated area, considers the physical and human resources available, as well as the general state of readiness of the area (including such things as the interface of emergency-related organizations). The use of such vulnerability assessment instruments allows local emergency planners to identify particular dangers within their communities and permits regional planners to allocate funds for planning according to relative needs.     

二要素多部门CGE模型的灾害经济研究

根据一般均衡分析的思想,构建了一个二要素多部门的可计算一般均衡模型,用以分析和计算自然灾害的发生对经济系统的影响,研究结果表明,灾害的三种不同直接经济损失对经济系统的间接影响是不同的,一次具体的自然灾害的经济影响是三种损失后果的综合。     

Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004–08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines.     

Integrated disaster relief logistics: a stepping stone towards viable civil–military networks?

The twenty‐first century has seen a significant rise in all forms of disasters and this has resulted in military and humanitarian organisations becoming more frequently engaged in the provision of support to those affected. Achieving an efficient and effective logistic preparation and response is one of the key elements in mitigating the impact of such events, but the establishment of mechanisms to deliver an appropriately integrated civil–military approach remains elusive. Not least because of the high percentage of assistance budgets spent on logistics, this area is considered to represent fertile ground for developing improved processes and understanding. In practice, the demands placed on civilian and military logisticians are broadly similar, as is the solution space. Speaking a common language and using common concepts, it is argued, therefore, that the logistic profession should be in the vanguard of the development of an improved civil–military interface.     

近30年我国自然灾害灾情时间分布特征分析

利用民政部统计核定的1978-2009年全国年度灾情数据,以及国家统计局发布的社会经济统计数据,从灾情指标的绝对量、相对量及其变异系数入手,分析了我国自然灾害的年际、年代际趋势变化和波动变化特征。结果表明:近30年来,我国自然灾害灾情年际和年代际变化趋势明显。总体上,死亡人口下降趋势明显,人口受灾情况、农作物受灾情况和直接经济损失上升趋势明显,但相对直接经济损失下降趋势明显,房屋倒塌比例也有所下降;1990年代,灾害造成的各项损失较之1980年代增大趋势明显。我国自然灾害的影响范围趋于相对稳定,而灾害强度波动性较大,且有增大趋势。灾情的趋势和波动变化特征,反映了全球气候变化下极端事件更加频发,强度有所增加的趋势。灾情指标的大小与年度主要灾害类型以及重灾年份有关。     

Progress in natural hazard risk reduction: What hath development wrought?

The development-disaster risk management agenda has been shaped over the last 25 years by development policies and practices that have isolated lesser developed countries' development agenda from dealing with risk to natural hazards, by intentional actions to create a theory and practice of disaster risk management alongside other cross-cutting issues, by attempting to nurture emergency management in the context of disaster risk management and by fostering competition for resources. Sovereign states, multilateral development banks and the international development community should collaborate in shifting paradigms to: consider all development actions as initiatives to reduce risk; separate emergency management policy and practice from disaster risk management; fold disaster risk management and climate change adaptation into development planning and lending processes so as to address risk to natural hazards; promote hazard, vulnerability and risk information as a public good; and insist on accountability and responsibility to natural hazard risk all along the development continuum.     

Multiple disasters and policy responses in pre- and post-independence Orissa, India

'Multiple disasters' or disasters that occur in 'one specific place' are regular events in coastal parts of the state of Orissa in eastern India. Yet the policy framework for addressing multiple disasters is weak. This paper aims to show that policy responses in pre- and post-independence Orissa have overlooked the effects of multiple disasters. Evidence based on a review of the literature and onfieldwork indicates that Orissa has a long history of experience of multiple disasters due to its unique geographic location, political dislocation, and ineffective disaster policies that have focused only on single events. One can observe the effects of this even today in Orissa, notably inadequate measures to counteract the consequences of multiple disasters at the household level and to build people's capacity. This study posits, therefore, that multiple disasters deserve good representation in integrated disaster reduction strategies designed to mitigate their impacts.     

中国自然灾害应急管理研究进展与对策

从中国自然灾害应急管理的现状出发,系统分析了自然灾害应急管理领域的研究进展,指出了中国自然灾害应急管理在理论和实践方面存在的问题.在此基础上,提出了中国自然灾害应急管理框架,认为建立适合中国国情的自然灾害应急管理体制是提高中国自然灾害应急管理的基础;应急预案的制定和实施是规范灾害应急管理,提高灾害紧急救援能力的关键措施;灾害信息快速准确的获取和评估是灾害应急管理的有效保障;建立实际可用的应急管理系统是提高灾害应急管理水平和工作效率的根本出路.     

我国基于应急管理的突发自然灾害区域划分

虽然我国不同种类突发自然灾害的单项、专门性应急管理已初具规模,有些甚至已比较成熟,但突发性灾害并不是单一的,常常衍生出其它灾害,以多种类、跨地域的特征发生.为了对突发自然灾害进行跨地域的综合性应急管理,进行相应的区划研究应是其首先要解决的问题.在分析我国突发自然灾害特征及其应急管理区划必要性的基础上,提出了在我国实施突发自然灾害应急管理区划的基本框架——宏观区划、中观区划和微观区划,并论述了各区划的基本思路.     

综合自然灾害风险管理--全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择

综合自然灾害风险管理是目前国际上防灾减灾和灾害管理较先进的措施和模式，是针对各种自然灾害的全灾害的管理，是贯穿于灾害管理全过程，集中于灾害风险和承灾体脆弱性分析并强调多层面、多元化和多学科参与合作的全面整合的灾害管理模式。介绍了综合自然灾害风险管理的必要性、概念和本质，探讨了综合自然灾害管理的基本理论、对策及其实施过程和实施战略，在此基础上提出了对我国实施综合自然灾害风险管理的建议，为强化和推动我国综合自然灾害风险管理提供参考。     

以保险为重要内容的我国巨灾风险管理体系探讨

我国是世界上自然灾害最严重的国家之一。如何对巨灾风险进行有效的管理是世界范围内的难题和重大的问题,也是各国政府面临的严峻挑战。在讨论了国内外巨灾风险管理体系的基础上,探讨了建立以保险为重要内容的我国巨灾风险管理体系的重要性和举措。     

中国近40年自然灾害总况与减灾对策建议

中国是世界上自然灾害最严重的少数国家之一。大陆地震的频次和强度居世界之首,占全球地震能量的十分之一以上;台风登陆的频次每年达七次;旱、涝灾害,山地灾害,海岸带灾害连年不断;危及工农业生产和城市安全相当严重。本文介绍了中国近40年自然灾害总况,现有的受灾害威胁的状况和防御能力,最后提出了监测、预报、抗灾、防灾、救灾和援建为要点的减灾系统工程建议。     

我国主要农业气象灾害机理与监测研究进展

对我国农业气象灾害机理与监测方面的研究进行了深入系统的回顾与评述,阐述了我国主要农业灾害研究的前沿领域和学术问题,探讨了农业灾害研究的发展趋势.灾害性天气只是农业成灾的外部环境条件(环境胁迫),在这种环境胁迫下,农业生产系统是否最终成灾,还要取决于农业生产系统本身对这种环境胁迫的应对和作用.因此农业灾害机理反映了环境胁迫与农业生产系统的相互作用和相互影响.当前,对农业灾害机理研究不足,农业成灾过程和关键因子认识不深入,农业灾害监测理论与方法不完善,已经成为建立有效的农业灾害监测预警系统、开展灾害时空动态监测,以及国家进行重大防灾减灾决策的瓶颈和障碍.对主要农业灾害机理开展研究以及发展农业灾害理论和监测方法,是国家实现农业发展目标的需要,也是多门相关学科理论与方法发展的需要.