自然灾害强度的评估方法及应用——基于综合灾情指数的研究

自然灾害造成的损失通常表现在多个方面,为了客观、全面地评估自然灾害,需要综合考虑多种灾情因素,最终才能得到灾害的总体评估结果。综合灾情指数(SDI)是对一系列灾情评价因子进行归一化、加权求和,这样得到的定量化的灾害评估指数,能够综合反映灾情信息。阐述了具有通用性的综合灾情指数,并设计开发了综合灾情指数工具,该工具包括评价因子、设置权重、规范化灾情指数和综合灾情指数4个模块。以汶川地震为例,利用综合灾情指数工具,对地震重灾区的灾害强度进行了综合评估。通过分析评估结果,综合灾情指数的分布真实地反映了受灾的严重程度,显示出该工具具有较好的实用性和有效性。     

Business closure and relocation: a comparative analysis of the Loma Prieta earthquake and Hurricane Andrew

The occurrence of a number of large‐scale disasters or catastrophes in recent years, including the Indian Ocean tsunami (2004), the Kashmir earthquake (2005), Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Hurricane Ike (2008), have raised our awareness regarding the devastating effects of disasters on human populations and the importance of developing mitigation and preparedness strategies to limit the consequences of such events. However, there is still a dearth of social science research focusing on the socio‐economic impact of disasters on businesses in the United States. This paper contributes to this research literature by focusing on the impact of disasters on business closure and relocation through the use of multivariate logistic regression models, specifically focusing on the Loma Prieta earthquake (1989) and Hurricane Andrew (1992). Using a multivariate model, we examine how physical damage to the infrastructure, lifeline disruption and business characteristics, among others, impact business closure and relocation following major disasters.     

内蒙古雪灾保险费率的厘定——基于自然灾害系统理论的研究

中国巨灾保险赔款占直接经济损失的比率比国际平均水平低的多,2008年初南方雨雪冰冻灾害和"5.12"汶川地震两次巨灾过后,国家加紧推进巨灾保险体系的建立。其中,巨灾保险费率厘定是基础。基于自然灾害系统理论,构建了以危险性曲线和脆弱性曲线为核心的巨灾风险保险费率厘定方法体系,改进了以往农业保险仅从致灾因子角度厘定费率的片面性。最后,借鉴美国洪水保险、日本地震保险以灾种为对象(而非承灾体种类为对象)构建巨灾保险体系的优势,以雪灾保险为例,厘定了内蒙古12盟市雪灾保险费率。结果显示,位于中部地区的锡林郭勒盟雪灾保险费率最高,为3.10%;位于西部地区的阿拉善盟、乌海市雪灾保险费率最低,为1.09%。     

Substance use among populations displaced by conflict: a literature review

This paper reviews the literature on substance use among populations displaced by conflict. Of the 17 publications presenting primary data retained for review, all consider populations in or recovering from protracted conflict, the majority (10) in non-camp settings. Most studies (10) offer prevalence estimates, suggesting that substance use (such as of alcohol, opiates, or minor tranquilizers) is common in some displaced settings. Five describe harmful consequences of substance use among displaced populations (such as HIV transmission, tuberculosis treatment failure, gender-based violence, and economic problems). Three studies suggest risk factors for substance use problems (such as gender, trauma-related conditions, pre-displacement substance use, and socio-economic factors); two examine qualitatively the gendered nature of alcohol-related harm and its links with gender-based violence. One study examines an intervention. The evidence base is weak. Findings are used to develop a conceptual framework emphasizing the risk environment to inform further research, to encourage debate among researchers and practitioners, and to enable the development of interventions.     

Health and social impacts of a flood disaster: responding to needs and implications for practice

Carlisle in northwest England suffered its worse floods for more than 180 years in 2005. A study, reported here, was undertaken to assess the health and social impacts of these floods via in‐depth, taped individual and focus‐group interviews with people whose homes had been flooded and with agency workers who helped them. Respondents spoke of physical health ailments, psychological stress, water health‐and‐safety issues related to the floods, and disputes with insurance and construction companies, which they felt had caused and exacerbated psychological health problems. Support workers also suffered from psychological stress. Furthermore, it was found that people had low expectations of a flood and were not prepared. The findings are presented in five sections covering flood risk awareness, water contamination issues, physical health, mental health, and impact on frontline support workers. The discussion focuses on the implications of the findings for policy and practice vis‐à‐vis psychological health provision, contamination issues, training and support for frontline support workers, matters relating to restoration, and preparation for flooding.     

Re-framing risk: the changing context of disaster mitigation and preparedness

This issue of Disasters explores the roles of NGOs and other actors in disaster mitigation and preparedness and also reviews broad international trends in risk management and disaster prevention. The need to address risk, and with that the motivation to improve disaster mitigation and preparedness, has tended to fall between the cracks of grander frameworks of development co-operation and humanitarian assistance. Despite the seemingly glaring need to reduce the horrific impact of floods, droughts and wars, disaster mitigation and preparedness have neither the allure of directly 'saving lives', nor of providing an 'escape from poverty'. There are, however, signs that risk management is becoming a mainstream concern. Factors such as the need to address factors that do not fit into traditional slots on the relief-development continuum, the rising economic costs of disasters and a growing acknowledgement that aid will never cover more than a small fraction of the costs of disasters are all leading to new approaches, priorities and institutional configurations. A realisation that dealing with risk and insecurity is a central part of how poor people develop their livelihood strategies has begun to position disaster mitigation and preparedness within many poverty alleviation agendas. A number of long-standing challenges remain; most of all, the complexities of maintaining the political will that is needed to ensure that risk management becomes more than a passing fad.     

The impact of disasters on small business disaster planning: a case study

A major flood in 1997 forced the evacuation of Grand Forks, North Dakota and caused damage of USD 1 billion. Despite this recent disaster there is only marginal evidence of an increase in disaster recovery planning by businesses that experienced the flood. This finding is consistent with the results of other business-related disaster research. Statistical tests of survey results from 2003 indicate that there is a significantly higher rate of disaster recovery planning in businesses started since the 1997 flood than in businesses started before the flood and still in business. Such an outcome indicates a need for public policy actions emphasizing the importance of disaster planning. Improved disaster planning is an aid to business recovery and the results demonstrate the need for more widespread efforts to improve disaster recovery planning on the part of smaller businesses, even in areas that have recently experienced disasters.     

Post-flooding disaster crop diversity recovery: a case study of Cowpea in Mozambique

To restore food security to a traditional African cropping system following a sudden loss of seed, genetic diversity must be re-established. This study examines the extent to which Cowpea diversity was reinstated two years after a flood disaster in Gaza Province, Mozambique. The contribution that seed from various sources made to the recovery was assessed using semi-structured interviews and morphological and molecular data. Data suggest that diversity had recovered to some extent yet there was evidence of a narrowing of the genetic base, with fewer rare alleles and differences in the distribution of allele frequencies. Although the main channels for accessing seed after the flood were seed relief and markets, these sources contributed to minimal and different diversity. It appears that diversity was regained primarily through social networking in the form of loans or gifts of seed from friends and relatives. The results of the study are discussed in relation to seed relief approaches.     

NGO collaboration in community post‐disaster reconstruction: field research following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China

The number of communities affected by disasters has been rising. As a result, non‐governmental organisations (NGOs) that attend community post‐disaster reconstruction are often unable to deliver all requirements and have to develop cooperative approaches. However, this collaboration can cause problems because of the complex environments, the fight for limited resources and uncoordinated management, all of which result in poor service delivery to the communities, adding to their woes. From extensive field research and case studies conducted in the post‐Wenchuan earthquake‐stricken communities, this paper introduces an integrated collaboration framework for community post‐disaster reconstruction with the focus on three types of NGOs: international, government organised and civil. The proposed collaboration framework examines the three interrelated components of organisational structure, operational processes and reconstruction goals/implementation areas. Of great significance in better promoting collaborative participation between NGOs are the crucial concepts of participatory reconstruction, double‐layer collaborative networks, and circular review and revision.     

The long-term impact of a man-made disaster: An examination of a small town in the aftermath of the Three Mile Island Nuclear Reactor Accident

This paper explores the long-term effects of a nuclear accident on residents' perceptions of their physical and mental health, their trust of public officials, and their attitudes toward the future risks of nuclear power generation In their community. We find that in the period after the accident at Three Mile Island that there are constant or Increasing levels of distress reported by community residents. We conclude that the effects of a technological disaster may often be more enduring than those natural disaster and that greater research efforts should be made to Investigate the long-term consequences of man-made catastrophies of all types.     

地震灾害对中国农村居民的影响研究--以云南省大姚县为例

通过对2003年7月21日和10月16日分别发生6.2和6.1级地震的云南省大姚县居民的问卷调查,分析了地震灾害对中困农村居民的影响,了解了我国农村居民尤其是地震多发区农村居民对地震灾害的风险意识以及在地震灾害中的反应.调查结果表明:中国农村居民是地震灾害的最大受害者和风险承担者.虽然他们会在地震灾害中汲取经验教训,增强风险防范意识,但是由于经济水平、自然环境等客观条件的影响,他们只能被动地承受地震灾害,而不能从根本上改变承灾体的脆弱性.中国农村地震减灾、防灾能力的加强需要政府管理部门的积极参与.     

灾害避难行为的模拟模型研究(Ⅲ)--双人单房情况的避难模拟

研究突发性灾害下的避难行为,有利于提高公众的防灾减灾意识和灾害抵御能力,在当前城市防灾减灾中具有重要的理论和现实意义.利用计算机模拟仿真试验可以多次重复、简单易行的优点,在对现有的计算机仿真模型进行改进的基础上,开展了不可视环境下双人单房任意方向下的灾害避难行为仿真模拟研究.结果表明,在双人单房的情况下,两人分头避难模式优于两人共同避难模式;同时,进一步的扩展模拟还表明,两人在分头避难又相遇后,进行正确交流也是十分有益的,这往往可以缩短发现避难出口的时间.     

Insuring against earthquakes: simulating the cost‐effectiveness of disaster preparedness

Ex‐ante measures to improve risk preparedness for natural disasters are generally considered to be more effective than ex‐post measures. Nevertheless, most resources are allocated after an event in geographical areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters. This paper analyses the cost‐effectiveness of ex‐ante adaptation measures in the wake of earthquakes and provides an assessment of the future role of private and public agencies in disaster risk management. The study uses a simulation model approach to evaluate consumption losses after earthquakes under different scenarios of intervention. Particular attention is given to the role of activity diversification measures in enhancing disaster preparedness and the contributions of (targeted) microcredit and education programmes for reconstruction following a disaster. Whereas the former measures are far more cost‐effective, missing markets and perverse incentives tend to make ex‐post measures a preferred option, thus occasioning underinvestment in ex‐ante adaptation initiatives.     

加强综合灾害风险研究,提高迎对灾害风险能力——从第6届国际综合灾害风险管理论坛看我国的综合减灾

综述了第6届国际IIASA-DPRI综合灾害风险管理论坛的主要内容，并就中国综合灾害风险管理对策提出了具体的建议。本届论坛的主题是：风险与商业和产经界面临的挑战。论坛除主题报告外，共设置了16个分会场，就综合灾害风险信息共享平台（DRH）的建设、产经界如何迎对灾害风险、地震与洪水灾害风险的综合管理、灾害风险教育与减灾意识的养成、综合灾害风险管理的理论与方法论探讨，以及土耳其国家综合灾害风险管理的经验与教训等进行了深人的研讨。针对上述进展，从我国减灾工作现状，提出从三个方面加强我国综合减灾与灾害风险管理工作，即：各级政府在加强应急管理工作的同时，要高度重视从综合的角度完善减灾战略、规划和能力建设；全面改进产经界迎对灾害风险的能力，特别是非国有中小企业防御灾害风险的能力，以及大型国有企业灾害自保或参保机制的完善；加强综合灾害风险管理研究。     

The politics of risk in the Philippines: comparing state and NGO perceptions of disaster management

It is now generally appreciated that what constitutes vulnerability to one person is not necessarily perceived as such by the next. Different actors 'see' disasters as different types of events and as a result they prepare for, manage and record them in very different ways. This paper explores what different perceptions of vulnerability mean in terms of the understanding and practices of two significant sets of actors and stakeholders involved in disaster preparedness and management in the Philippines: the state and NGOs. Approaches to disaster are not just a function of people's perceptions of disaster risk but also of their understanding of the prevailing social order and social relations. Despite a shared vocabulary—which increasingly presents disasters as processes rather than events, takes a proactive rather than a reactive approach, and favours the inclusion of stakeholders rather than solely relying on technocratic management—different realities continue to make for different responses.     

Nature's impartiality, man's inhumanity: reflections on terrorism and world crisis in a context of historical disaster

This paper compares the terrorist outrages of 11 September 2001 in New York City and Washington to the Lisbon earthquake of 1 November 1755. Both events occurred, literally out of the blue, at critical junctures in history and both struck at the heart of large trading networks. Both affected public attitudes towards disaster as, not only did they cause unparalleled destruction, but they also represented symbolic victories of chaos over order, and of moral catastrophism over a benign view of human endeavour. The Lisbon earthquake led to a protracted debate on teleology, which has some parallels in the debate on technological values in modern society. It remains to be seen whether there will be parallels in the reconstruction and the ways in which major disasters are rationalised in the long term. But despite the differences between these two events--which are obviously very large as nearly 250 years of history separate them and they were the work of different sorts of forces--there are lessons to be learned from the comparison. One of these is that disaster can contribute to a perilous form of self absorption and cultural isolation.     

The creation of vulnerability to natural disaster: Case studies from the Dominican Republic*

This paper argues that natural disasters are not a category of events which can be separated from the broader Issues of development, since economic change can create vulnerability to natural disaster. The analysis of case studies from the Dominican Republic shows how the development of large scale commercialized agricultural production has created such vulnerability by reducing or restricting the resource base of certain sectors of the population. It b suggested that the vulnerable state of a population should be considered as much a cause of natural disaster as the extreme physical phenomena Involved. Therefore there Is a need both for a broader framework for analysis of disasters and for strategies to reduce such vulnerability to be an Integral part of long term development planning.     

Biodiversity versus emergencies: the impact of restocking on Animal Genetic Resources after disaster

Restocking is a favoured option in supporting livelihoods after a disaster. With the depletion of local livestock populations, the introduction of new species and breeds will clearly affect biodiversity. Nevertheless, the impact of restocking on Animal Genetic Resources has been largely ignored. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to examine the consequences of restocking on biodiversity via a simple model. Utilising a hypothetical project based on cattle, the model demonstrates that more than one-third of the population was related to the original restocked animals after three generations. Under conditions of random breed selection, the figure declined to 20 per cent. The tool was then applied to a donor-led restocking project implemented in Bosnia-Herzegovina. By restocking primarily with Simmental cattle, the model demonstrated that the implementation of a single restocking project is likely to have accelerated the decline of the indigenous Buşa breed by a further nine per cent. Thus, greater awareness of the long-term implications of restocking on biodiversity is required.     

基于GIS技术的洪涝灾害风险评估与区划研究--以辽河中下游地区为例

目前,对洪涝灾害风险的评价方法虽然不少,但还没有能提出一个集成化的指数来对其进行分析.综合考虑了形成我国东北地区洪涝灾害风险的4个因子,以辽河中下游地区为研究对象,基于GIS技术和自然灾害风险评估方法,从气象学、地理学、灾害科学、环境科学等学科观点出发,提出了洪涝灾害风险指数,用其来评估不同县相关损失风险及各因子对风险的贡献,并绘制出了辽河中下游洪涝灾害风险区划图.