Demographic Connectivity for Ursid Populations at Wildlife Crossing Structures in Banff National Park

Wildlife crossing structures are one solution to mitigating the fragmentation of wildlife populations caused by roads, but their effectiveness in providing connectivity has only been superficially evaluated. Hundreds of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (Ursus americanus) passages through under and overpasses have been recorded in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. However, the ability of crossing structures to allow individual and population‐level movements across road networks remains unknown. In April 2006, we initiated a 3‐year investigation into whether crossing structures provide demographic connectivity for grizzly and black bears in Banff National Park. We collected hair with multiple noninvasive methods to obtain genetic samples from grizzly and black bears around the Bow Valley. Our objectives were to determine the number of male and female grizzly and black bears that use crossing structures; examine spatial and temporal patterns of crossings; and estimate the proportions of grizzly and black bear populations in the Bow Valley that use crossing structures. Fifteen grizzly (7 female, 8 male) and 17 black bears (8 female, 9 male) used wildlife crossing structures. The number of individuals detected at wildlife crossing structures was highly correlated with the number of passages in space and time. Grizzly bears used open crossing structures (e.g., overpasses) more often than constricted crossings (e.g., culverts). Peak use of crossing structures for both bear species occurred in July, when high rates of foraging activity coincide with mating season. We compared the number of bears that used crossings with estimates of population abundance from a related study and determined that substantial percentages of grizzly (15.0% in 2006, 19.8% in 2008) and black bear (17.6% in 2006, 11.0% in 2008) populations used crossing structures. On the basis of our results, we concluded wildlife crossing structures provide demographic connectivity for bear populations in Banff National Park. Conectividad Demográfica para Poblaciones de Úrsidos en Estructuras para Cruce de Vida Silvestre en el Parque Nacional Banff     

Sexual dimorphism, reproductive strategy, and human activities determine resource use by brown bears

Despite significant sexual dimorphism and differing reproductive strategies in carnivores, sexual segregation is rarely studied and is often overlooked in the management of wild populations. Potential nutritional constraints imposed by sexual dimorphism and differing reproductive strategies between the sexes have important implications, particularly when combined with differential effects of human activities on sex and age classes. We examined the effects of sexual dimorphism, reproductive strategies, and human activities (bear-viewing and hunting) on resource use by different sex and age classes of brown bears (Ursus arctos). Sexual segregation of habitat use and effects of experimental bear-viewing were quantified at a single site in south-central Alaska, U.S.A., by capturing, collaring, and observing brown bears at a salt marsh and salmon stream. Effects of salmon capture rate, availability of alternative salmon runs, harvest pressure, and numbers of annual visitors on sex and age class use were examined from data collected or previously published from 13 other sites. Bear-viewing sites on salmon streams where salmon capture rates were low (<4 salmon/hour) resulted in low use by adult males (<10% of all bears), except for sites with falls. However, maximum male use of viewing areas also depended on the availability of alternative salmon streams and harvest pressure. Use of habitats by females with dependent young was significantly related to the prevalence of adult males at the site. Thus, both sexual dimorphism and differing reproductive strategies led to sexual segregation in habitat use by bears. As a result of infanticide, females with young appear to prioritize avoidance of male bears over avoidance of humans when choosing habitats, in contrast to responses documented in herbivores. Because carnivores often exhibit both sexual dimorphism and infanticide, selection for sexual segregation is likely to be high. In these cases, the nutritional demands of large adult males, balanced with responses to human activity, drive dynamic temporal and spatial distributions of individuals in the population.     

Lessons from Białowieża Forest on the history of protection and the world's first reintroduction of a large carnivore

Understanding how the relationships between large carnivores and humans have evolved and have been managed through centuries can provide relevant insights for wildlife conservation. The management history of many large carnivores has followed a similar pattern, from game reserved for nobility, to persecuted pests, to conservation targets. We reconstructed the history of brown bear (Ursus arctos) management in Bia?owie?a Forest (Poland and Belarus) based on a detailed survey of historical literature and Russian archives. From the end of the Middle Ages to the end of 18th century, the brown bear was considered “animalia superiora” (i.e., game exclusively reserved for nobility and protected by law). Bears, also a source of public entertainment, were not regarded as a threat. Effective measures to prevent damages to traditional forest beekeeping were already in practice. In the beginning of 19th century, new game‐management approaches allowed most forest officials to hunt bears, which became the primary target of hunters due to their valuable pelt. This, together with an effective anticarnivore policy enhanced by bounties, led to bear extirpation in 1879. Different approaches to scientific game management appeared (planned extermination of predators and hunting levels that would maintain stable populations), as did the first initiatives to protect bears from cruel treatment in captivity. Bear reintroduction in Bia?owie?a Forest began in 1937 and represented the world's first reintroduction of a large carnivore motivated by conservation goals. The outbreak of World War II spoiled what might have been a successful project; reproduction in the wild was documented for 8 years and bear presence for 13. Soft release of cubs born in captivity inside the forest but freely roaming with minimal human contact proved successful. Release of captive human‐habituated bears, feeding of these bears, and a lack of involvement of local communities were weaknesses of the project. Large carnivores are key components of ecosystem‐function restoration, and site‐specific histories provide important lessons in how to preserve them for the future.     

Demographic Analyses of a Hunted Black Bear Population with Access to a Refuge

Studying one of two bear species not experiencing widespread population decline, provides insight into the population responses of the six bear species that are in decline and into responses of other long-lived species for which data are difficult to collect. Black bear ( Ursus americanus ) sanctuaries were established in North Carolina (U.S.) in 1971 to protect core populations of bears and to provide dispersing bears for hunting. Population index values, derived from counts of bears visiting bait stations, were significantly greater inside the Pisgah Bear Sanctuary than outside and were greater along trails than along roads. Survivorship of bears outfitted with transmitter collars was greater for sanctuary bears alone than for sanctuary plus non-sanctuary bears. Monte Carlo analyses of Leslie matrices showed that the bear population in the sanctuary would be stable if cub survivorship, p ₀, was about O.7, and the population in the sanctuary plus the surrounding area would be stable if p ₀ was about 0.83. Estimates of litter survivorship in North Carolina indicate, however, that p ₀ can not exceed O.71. Overall, the matrix analyses indicated an ultimate population decline in the total bear population (sanctuary plus surrounding area). The population index of the bait station did not show a discernible decline. The Pisgah Bear Sanctuary provides dispersing bears for hunters and provides some protection for the resident bears. The sanctuary may not, however, provide resident bears with enough protection to maintain a viable breeding population within its boundaries. Reducing human access to bears and their habitat appears crucial, either by making large sanctuaries or by eliminating roads.     

Socially induced delayed primiparity in brown bears Ursus arctos

Reproductive suppression through behavioral or physiological means is common in group-living and cooperative breeding mammals, but to our knowledge it has not been shown in wild large carnivores other than those with a clear form of social organization. Brown bear (Ursus arctos) females form matrilinear assemblages with related females using a common and largely exclusive area. Behavioral reproductive suppression might develop due to a hierarchical system among females within a matrilinear assemblage or due to inbreeding avoidance, because male brown bears can overlap with their daughters. We tested whether natal dispersal influenced the age of primiparity. We predicted that emigrant females, geographically removed from maternal or paternal influence, would reproduce earlier than philopatric females. The average age of primiparity was 4.3 years in females that dispersed outside their mother’s home range (n=8) and 5.2 years in philopatric females (n=10). Only the overlap with the mother’s home range, and not body size, body mass, growth, local population density, or overlap with the father’s home range, had a significant influence on the age of primiparity. The ultimate role of reproductive suppression for brown bears is likely to avoid inbreeding or to minimize resource competition. Due to the low risk of inbreeding and frequent exposure of young females to unrelated males, we conclude that resource competition within female hierarchies causes reproductive suppression in young females.     

Interspecific competition between native Eurasian red squirrels and alien grey squirrels: does resource partitioning occur?

In heterogeneous environments, differential niche selection by two competing species will result in niche partitioning so that individuals of each species can maximise their fitness under different sets of environmental variables. Thus, niche partitioning is considered essential to allow co-existence of ecologically related species. To assess whether niche partitioning was occurring between native red squirrels and alien grey squirrels living together in a 13-ha high-quality mixed deciduous woodland in north Italy, we investigated temporal and spatial patterns in their activity and foraging behaviour between 1996 and 1998. We used live trapping and radio-tracking to study numbers, distribution and behaviour of squirrels. Daily and seasonal temporal activity patterns, and activity on the ground and in the trees, were similar in the two species. However, grey squirrels were more tree specialists and had a narrower tree-species niche width than red squirrels, in particular making greater use of oak. Other studies of red and grey squirrels in allopatry show that the two species differ in the extent they utilise oak. Overall, tree-species niche overlap was about 70%. Grey squirrels had larger home ranges than red squirrels. Home ranges and core areas of both species were larger in males than females. Also, intraspecific home range and core-area overlap patterns were similar to those found in allopatric populations of these species. Overall, there was no evidence that the use of space of one species was affected by the other. Our results show that there was no niche partitioning of activity or foraging behaviour in time or space during the study. This suggests that, at moderate grey-squirrel densities, red squirrels are unable to avoid competition with grey squirrels, and that competition for food and/or space will occur when these resources become limiting.     

Factors influencing length of maternal care in brown bears (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ursus arctos</Emphasis>) and its effect on offspring

Length of maternal care, i.e. the interval between successfully raised litters, is the most important factor explaining the variation in reproductive rate among brown-bear (Ursus arctos) populations. In this paper, we examine the variation in length of maternal care in radio-marked brown bears and its effect on their offspring in northern Sweden. Young stayed with their mothers for 1.4–1.5 or 2.4–2.5 (in one case 3.5) years and were weaned with body masses varying from 17 to 69 kg. The probability of yearling litters staying with their mother for a 2nd year increased with decreasing yearling body mass, and was higher for litters with two offspring than for litters with one or three to four offspring. Staying with their mothers for a 2nd year had a positive effect on mass gain in yearlings and this effect was more pronounced in litters with two than three to four offspring. Body mass of 2-year-olds was not related to age of weaning, suggesting that keeping offspring for an additional year mainly compensated for low yearling body mass. If large offspring body mass positively affects later offspring survival and reproduction, mothers may be able to optimize the length of maternal care according to the litter size and the size of their yearlings.Communicated by F. Trillmich     

Modeling the brown bear population in Slovenia: A tool in the conservation management of a threatened species

In this paper, we address three aspects of the brown bear population in Slovenia: its size (and its evolution over time), its spatial expansion out of the core area, and its potential habitat based on natural habitat suitability. Data collected through measurement/observation of the bear population and from the literature are used. A model is developed for each aspect. The results are estimates of population size, a picture of the spatial expansion of the population and maps of its optimal and maximal potential habitat (based on natural suitability). Overall, the brown bear population has been increasing since the establishment of a core protective area and has been expanding outside this area. The habitat suitability maps show that there is room for further expansion. Based on habitat suitability and bear population density, as well as human activity and current damage reports, we recommend that the Alps should be temporarily kept free of the bears, until the necessary mitigation measures regarding human–bear conflicts are carried out. On the other hand it is of crucial importance to adapt human activities and improve bear management in the optimal habitat, with which the goals of successful conservation of the species might be achieved.     

Management of fat reserves in tufted titmice (Parus bicolor ): evidence against a trade-off with food hoards

Caching species can manage their energy supply by adjusting body fat, number of caches, or both. It has been hypothesized that because body fat has a higher fitness cost than caches, small food-hoarding birds respond to increased starvation risk by increasing the number of their caches rather than their fat load. This hypothesis predicts that when birds cannot cache they should compensate for the loss of external energy storage by (1) shifting the time of their daily body mass accumulation toward earlier in the day and (2) increasing the overall level of their fat reserves. During the winter of 1995–1996, we tested these predictions with a caching species, the tufted titmouse (Parus bicolor). Each of six experimental birds was fed a diet of uncachable sunflower seed powder for 6 days, preceded and followed by 6-day control periods during which they were fed cachable sunflower seeds. The daily pattern of body mass gain was unaffected by the opportunity to cache. Furthermore, when unable to cache, the birds did not increase either their mean daily body mass, body mass in the middle of the day, or evening body mass compared to the two control periods. These results argue against the hypothesis of a trade-off between fat reserves and food caches in tufted titmice, and suggest that fat reserves are managed independently of external food caches. Received: 9 April 1997 / Accepted after revision: 30 August 1997     

Determinants of male reproductive success in American black bears

We determined annual male reproductive success in black bears (Ursus americanus) using DNA and field data from two populations in New Mexico. We identified the likely father for 78 of 120 genotyped cubs born during 1994–2000 and calculated reproductive success for 102 males known or presumed present within designated mating regions. Age was a strong determinant of reproductive success. The observed peak in reproductive success occurred at roughly the same intermediate age (10 years) as milder peaks in body size characteristics (11–12 years) and frequency of bear-inflicted wounds (13 years), suggesting body size and fighting might be important for mating. Success was negatively associated with the distance between home range centers of males and mothers. Success of young males (<7 years old) was also negatively associated with mature male (≥7 years old) density, and increasing density shifted the peak age of reproduction higher. The dispersed distribution of females likely limited the capacity of large mature males to dominate reproduction; therefore, success was determined by a complex set of variables.     

Litter reductions reveal a trade-off between offspring size and number in brown bears

Experimental manipulations have revealed positive effects of litter reduction on offspring mass in small mammals, but little is known about this trade-off in large mammals. We examined the determinants of natural litter size variation and quantified the effects of litter size, maternal characteristics, and litter composition on yearling mass using 24?years of data on marked brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Sweden. Infanticide by adult males is a major cause of cub-of-the-year mortality, leading to litter size reductions. Litter size (n?=?265) at den emergence ranged from one to four cubs (average, 2.7) and increased with maternal age. Litter size, however, appeared independent of maternal size, population density, interlitter interval, study area, or previous litter sex ratio. Yearling body mass increased with maternal body size but was independent of litter sex ratio. Litter size and yearling mass were negatively correlated, mostly because singletons were about 30?% heavier than yearlings from litters of two to four cubs. In reduced litters, survivors were on average 8?% heavier as yearlings than individuals from intact litters, suggesting that sibling competition reduces growth. Trade-offs between litter size and yearling mass in bears appear similar in magnitude to those found in small mammals.     

Timber harvest transforms ecological roles of salmon in southeast Alaska rain forest streams

Although species commonly modify habitats and thereby influence ecosystem structure and function, the factors governing the ecological importance of these modifications are not well understood. Pacific salmon have repeatedly been shown to positively influence the abundance of benthic biota by annually transferring large quantities of nutrients from marine systems to the nutrient-poor freshwaters in which they spawn. Conversely, other studies have demonstrated that salmon can negatively influence the abundance of freshwater biota, an effect attributed to bioturbation during upstream migration and nest construction. The factors determining which of these contrasting ecological effects predominates are unknown, including how human activities, such as land use, influence ecological responses to salmon. We sampled a key basal food resource, sediment biofilm, in seven southeast Alaskan streams impacted to varying degrees by timber harvest. Biofilm abundance (measured as chlorophyll a and ash-free dry mass) was positively related to timber-harvest intensity prior to salmon arrival. However, during the salmon run, an inverse relationship emerged of more abundant biofilm in less-harvested watersheds. Among-stream variability in biofilm response to salmon was largely explained by sediment particle size, which was larger in less-harvested watersheds. Collectively, these results suggest that, by altering stream sediment size, timber harvest transformed the dominant effect of salmon from nutrient enrichment to physical disturbance, thus modifying nutrient linkages between marine and freshwater ecosystems.     

Behavioral diversification in a young species flock of pupfish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cyprionodon</Emphasis> spp.): shoaling and aggressive behavior

Increasing empirical and theoretical evidence supports the idea that sympatric speciation is operating, for example, in species flocks comprising several closely related fish species within one lake. Divergent natural selection (promoting spatial and food niche partitioning) and sexual selection (assortative mating) have been identified as key selection factors in intralacustric adaptive radiations. However, the evolution of social behaviors accompanying such adaptive radiations is less well understood. Using a phylogenetically young species flock of pupfish (Cyprinodon spp.) as a model, we examined differences among six sympatric species and compared their shoaling, aggressive, and territorial behaviors with that of a sister species (C. artifrons). Despite an estimated age of the species flock of less than 8,000 years, pronounced behavioral differentiation was found. C. simus, the smallest species in the flock, shoaled more than the other species and was less aggressive and less territorial than C. beltrani. F₁-hybrids between C. simus males and C. beltrani females showed an intermediate expression of shoaling and aggressive behavior. Niche partitioning among the members of this species flock appears to be accompanied by rapid divergent evolution of social behaviors. We discuss the potential role of phenotypic plasticity and within-species variation of social behaviors for such rapid behavioral diversifications in sympatric speciation processes.     

Seasonal migrations of black bears (Ursus americanus): causes and consequences

American black bears frequently abandon their home ranges in late summer and move to feeding areas to fatten themselves for hibernation. We examined seasonal movements of 206 radio-collared bears in north-central Minnesota during 1981–1990. We exploited the variability in this long-term data set to test tradeoffs for animals leaving their home range. Late summer movements were common for both sexes and all ages (39% of females, 44% of males), but were variable from year-to-year in prevalence, timing, and destination. Bears typically left their summer home ranges in August and returned ~6 weeks later in September or October. Most traveled southward, where acorns were more plentiful (median = 10 km for females, 26 km for males; maximum = 168 km). These facultative migrations were most common when rich resources were available outside home ranges. Bears were least apt to leave when foods were scarce in their home range, possibly sensing a risk of migrating during a widespread food failure. Among females, those whose body mass was close to a reproductive threshold were most prone to migrate. Migrating bears were less likely to be killed by hunters, suggesting that they were especially vigilant.     

Levels and congener profiles of PCDD/Fs and dioxin-like PCBs in Baltic wild salmon (Salmo salar)

Baltic salmons were caught from two Latvian rivers during the spawning seasons of 2010 and 2011 for the determination of seventeen 2,3,7,8-chlorine-substituted dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). A partially automated clean-up procedure was used for sample preparation, followed by capillary gas chromatography hyphenated to high-resolution mass spectrometry. The concentrations of PCDD/F&;PCB-TEQ ranged from 6.6 to 18.2?ng?kg^?1 fresh weight and this confirms the previous reports of relatively high concentrations of PCDD/Fs, and especially of dioxin-like PCBs in Baltic wild salmon, in most samples exceeding maximum recommended levels (MRLs) in toxicity equivalency quotients (PCDD/F-PCB-TEQ) of the World Health Organization (WHO 1998) according to EC COMMISSION REGULATION No 1881/2006. The results suggest that high consumption of Baltic wild salmon could entail the risk of exceeding the TDI for adults and teenagers. Extra care must be taken when Baltic wild salmon is included in childrens's diet to avoid exceedance of the recommended TDI of 4?pg?kg^?1 body weight for this group.     

The noble cats and the big bad scavengers: effects of dominant scavengers on solitary predators

Scavenging is an important but poorly understood ecological process. Dominant scavengers can impose a selection pressure that alters the predator’s fitness, morphology, behavior, and ecology. Interactions between ursids, likely the most important dominant scavengers in the Holarctic region, and solitary felids, which are characterized by long feeding times, provide a good opportunity for studying the effects of kleptoparasitism by dominant scavengers. We analyzed the effects of scavenging by brown bears Ursus arctos on Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx and predator’s response to kleptoparasitism in a European temperate forest ecosystem. Bears found 32?% of lynx prey remains and 15?% of all biomass of large prey killed by lynx was lost to bears. In response, lynx increased their kill rate by 23?% but were able to compensate for only 59?% of the losses. The frequency of bear scavenging was strongly dependent on bear activity patterns and was highest during the lynx pregnancy and lactation period, when up to half of lynx kills were usurped by bears. We suggest that ursid scavenging, by promoting the hunting of smaller prey, may have played an important role in the evolution of the Lynx genus as well as other predators in the Holarctic. Our study indicates that prey loss to dominant scavengers is a widespread phenomenon among felids worldwide, including forest habitats. We highlight several implications of scavenging that could considerably improve our understanding of the ecology of vertebrate communities and the evolution of predators as well as benefit the future management and conservation of endangered predators.     

Linking noninvasive genetic sampling and traditional monitoring to aid management of a trans-border carnivore population

Noninvasive genetic sampling has been embraced by wildlife managers and ecologists, especially those charged with monitoring rare and elusive species over large areas. Challenges arise when desired population measures are not directly attainable from genetic data and when monitoring targets trans-border populations. Norwegian management authorities count individual brown bears (Ursus arctos) using noninvasive genetic sampling but express management goals in the annual number of bear reproductions (females that produce cubs), a measure that is not directly available from genetic data. We combine noninvasive genetic sampling data with information obtained from a long-term intensive monitoring study in neighboring Sweden to estimate the number of annual reproductions by females detected within Norway. Most female brown bears in Norway occur near the border with neighboring countries (Sweden, Finland, and Russia) and their potential reproduction can therefore only partially be credited to Norway. Our model includes a simulation-based method that corrects census data to account for this. We estimated that 4.3 and 5.7 reproductions can be credited to females detected with noninvasive genetic sampling in Norway in 2008 and 2009, respectively. These numbers fall substantially short of the national target (15 annual reproductions). Ignoring the potential for home ranges to extend beyond Norway's borders leads to an increase in the estimate of the number of reproductions by -30%. Our study shows that combining noninvasive genetic sampling with information obtained from traditional intensive/invasive monitoring can help answer contemporary management questions in the currency desired by managers and policy makers. Furthermore, combining methodologies and thereby accounting for space use increases the accuracy of the information on which decisions are based. It is important that the information derived from multiple approaches is applicable to the same focal population and that predictions are cross-validated. When monitoring and management are constrained to administrative units, census data should be adjusted by discounting portions of individual space utilization that extend beyond the focal jurisdiction. Our simulation-based approach for making such an adjustment may be useful in other situations where management authorities target portions of trans-border populations.     

大熊猫与熊类动物性别的分子鉴定

根据已知动物的性别决定因子基因序列设计引物,以非性别特异性的脑源性神经营养因子基因片段（ＢＤＮＦ）作为正对照,用于扩增大熊猫、浣熊、天山棕熊和马来熊个体的ＳＲＹ（ｓｅｘｄｅｔｅｒｍｉｎｉｎｇｒｅｇｉｏｎｏｎＹｃｈｒｏｍｏｓｏｍｅ）基因片段并对其进行凝胶电泳分析,由此建立了一套简单、快速、可靠的动物性别分子鉴定方法．该方法不仅有利于尽快确定大熊猫等珍稀濒危动物的性别,而且也可以用于野外种群的性别比例调查．     

Localization of a Contact Zone between Two Highly Divergent Mitochondrial DNA Lineages of the Brown Bear Ursus arctos in Scandinavia

In Europe the brown bear ( Ursus arctos ) is represented by two different mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages, which probably diverged about 0.85 million years ago. Scandinavia has been colonized by representatives of both lineages, from the north (eastern lineage) and from the south (western lineage), and now bears occur primarily in four main regions called female concentration areas. For management purposes the localization of the contact zone between these two genotypes is important. Using hairs as a source of DNA, 127 individual brown bears from throughout the Scandinavian populations were assayed for lineage assignment. A part of the mtDNA control region was amplified via the polymerase chain reaction, and the product was either sequenced (14 individuals) or digested with two diagnostic restriction endonucleases (113 individuals). Fifty-six and 71 bears were assigned to the western and eastern lineages, respectively. The geographic distribution of the two genotypes allowed precise localization of the contact zone. Only two males from each lineage had crossed the border between the two lineages. We used dispersal data from bears radio-marked as yearlings to determine whether potential mtDNA introgressions agreed with the dispersal behavior of bears. The males in the "wrong" areas were all within the 95th-percentile dispersal distance from the "correct" area. Females were more philopatric than males, and none were found in the wrong areas. The two female concentration areas flanking the contact zone were 134 km apart. Thus, radiotelemetry results on dispersal distances could explain the occurrence of the males in the wrong genetic area. In the absence of information concerning possible male-mediated gene flow, a conservative management approach would be to consider the southern and the three northern female concentration areas as two distinct conservation units.     

Identifying habitat patches and potential ecological corridors for remnant Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) populations in Japan

The Japanese National Biodiversity Strategy 2010 calls for the creation of ecological networks as a biodiversity conservation policy. However, there is an obvious lack of information on the spatial distribution of many species and a lack of scientific methods for examining habitat requirements to establish the need for constructing these networks for target species. This study presents a quantitative method for assessing the need for ecological networks through modeling the potential geographic distributions of species based on a case study of local populations of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) in Fuji and Tanzawa, Japan. A total of 1541 point records of occurrences of Asiatic black bears and 11 potential predictors were analyzed in a GIS environment. After a predictive distributional map was obtained using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm, a gap analysis was carried out and population size was estimated. Approximately 24% of the bear's predicted habitat area fell within a wildlife protection area, 2% within a nature reserve, and 37% within natural parks. Conservation forest comprised 54% of the total area of predicted habitat; of this, national forest comprised 2%, and private and communal forest comprised 37%. The total estimated Asiatic black bear population in this region was 242, with 179 individuals in the Fuji local population, 26 in the Tanzawa local population, and 37 in the corridor patch between the two local populations. Our study also found a potential corridor connecting the Fuji and Tanzawa local populations, as well as potential habitat corridors in the Fuji region containing subpopulations on Mt. Fuji (119 individuals) and Mt. Kenashi (53 individuals). An additional subpopulation on Mt. Ashitaka (7 individuals) is isolated and not fully protected by a zoning plan. Mt. Furo's subpopulation is considered to be almost extinct, although black bears were observed here until 2002 based on the report by Mochizuki et al. (2005). The total black bear population of the Fuji-Tanzawa region is considered to be “endangered”; thus, an adequate population size might be difficult to maintain even if this region were to be internally connected by means of an ecological network.