Migrants,land markets and carbon emissions in Jambi,Indonesia: Land tenure change and the prospect of emission reduction

Policies designed to reduce land-based carbon emissions require a good understanding of the complex connections between state-sanctioned concessions, forest conversion, informal land markets and migrants. Our case study in the peat forests of the Tanjung Jabung Barat (TanJaBar) regency of Jambi, Indonesia aimed to explore relations between four key stakeholder groups: the state, local communities, migrants, and state-sanctioned concessions. We hypothesized that current land use patterns are shaped by insecurity in formal forest tenure alongside informal land tenure arrangements with migrants. In analyzing the six two-way relationships between the four stakeholder groups, we found that interactions between the stakeholders have changed local norms and practice, causing land conflicts and contested claims that need to be explicitly addressed in efforts to reduce carbon emissions in TanJaBar. Relational concepts of land rights between migrants and local community leaders are informed by social identity, expectations of investment opportunities, insecure customary forest tenure and competing land use policies. Migrants act as intermediaries in shaping the land tenure system and shift the balance of power between local communities, the state, and business concessions. We conclude that effective and equitable implementation of national Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+ (REDD+) programs will need to recognize underlying land ownership dynamics, power struggles and strategic positioning among stakeholders across scales. Obtaining free and prior informed consent (FPIC) from all relevant stakeholders is a major challenge given this complexity. Low emission development strategies will require recognition of a reality beyond large-scale concessions and traditional local communities.     

Assessment of carbon leakage in multiple carbon-sink projects: a case study in Jambi Province,Indonesia

Rehabilitation of degraded forest land through implementation of carbon-sink projects can increase terrestrial carbon (C) stock. However, carbon emissions outside the project boundary, which is commonly referred to as leakage, may reduce or negate the sequestration benefits. This study assessed leakage from carbon-sink projects that could potentially be implemented in the study area comprised of 11 sub-districts in the Batanghari District, Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. The study estimates the probability of a given land use/cover being converted into other uses/cover, by applying a logit model. The predictor variables were: proximity to the center of the land use area, distance to transportation channel (road or river), area of agricultural land, unemployment (number of job seekers), job opportunities, population density and income. Leakage was estimated by analyzing with and without carbon-sink projects scenarios. Most of the predictors were estimated as being significant in their contribution to land use cover change. The results of the analysis show that leakage in the study area can be large enough to more than offset the project’s carbon sequestration benefits during the period 2002–2012. However, leakage results are very sensitive to changes of carbon density of the land uses in the study area. By reducing C-density of lowland and hill forest by about 10% for the baseline scenario, the leakage becomes positive. Further data collection and refinement is therefore required. Nevertheless, this study has demonstrated that regional analysis is a useful approach to assess leakage.     

中国实现碳达峰的政策建议——基于碳定价机制模型的多情景模拟分析

碳定价机制是利用市场机制推动碳减排、减缓气候变化方案的核心内容,包括碳排放权交易和碳税等措施。尽管新冠肺炎疫情打乱了经济发展节奏,但是中国主动提高国家自主贡献力度,积极推进战略提升与政策强化。本研究构建并运用"碳定价机制模型"模拟涵盖不同主体范围及政策组合下的碳排放权交易市场运行情况,分析评估碳减排效果及经济影响,为丰富完善我国实现碳达峰的政策工具提供技术支持。     

Using many-objective trade-off analysis to help dams promote economic development,protect the poor and enhance ecological health

Allocating water to different uses implies trading off the benefits perceived by different sectors. This paper demonstrates how visualising the trade-offs implied by the best performing water management options helps balance water use benefits and find sustainable solutions. The approach consists of linking a water resources model that can simulate many management policies and track diverse measures of system performance, to a many-objective evolutionary optimisation algorithm. This generates the set of Pareto-optimal management alternatives for several simultaneous objectives. The relative performance of these efficient management alternatives is then visualised as trade-off curves or surfaces using visual analytic plots. Visually assessing trade-offs between benefits helps select policies that achieve a decision-maker-selected balance between different metrics of system performance. We apply this approach to a multi-reservoir water resource system in Brazil's semi-arid Jaguaribe basin where current water allocation procedures favour sectors with greater political power and technical knowledge. The case study identifies promising reservoir operating policies by exploring trade-offs between economic, ecological and livelihood benefits as well as traditional hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply. Results show optimised policies can increase allocations to downstream uses while increasing median land availability for the poorest farmers by 25%.     

基于随机森林模型的我国县域碳排放强度格局与影响因素演进分析

为了研究县域碳排放强度空间格局及其关键影响因素的演进规律,在测算2009~2017年我国县域碳排放强度的基础上,通过ArcGIS空间统计模型分析了县域碳排放强度的空间格局,并利用随机森林模型识别了碳排放强度的关键影响因素及其时序演进特征.结果显示:2009~2017年我国县域平均碳排放强度减量波动下降,2017年县域平均碳排放强度为2.02t/万元,仍有较大的削减潜力;县域碳排放强度总体格局呈显著空间自相关,并呈现波动增强趋势;局部格局呈显著的南北和东西分异,热点区呈西进态势,冷点区呈南下北上态势.关键影响因素中省会距离、产业结构、路网密度和人口的重要性高于经济水平、财政收支、绿色专利和开通高铁;时序演进反映,绿色专利、人口总数和经济水平的重要性在提升,而产业结构和人口密度的重要性在下降;其中大部分关键影响因素同碳排放强度呈现非线性响应关系.     

An analysis of the 1984 locust plague in Australia using multitemporal landsat multispectral data and a simulation model of locust development

An analysis of the 1984 locust (Chortoicetes terminifera (Walker)) plague in Australia was undertaken to determine its source region using a simulation model of locust development and whether using appropriately enhanced satellite data, the individual areas that were suitable for locust breeding could be detected within this region. The origin of the 1984 plague was found to be in the Channel Country of south west Queensland, and satellite data indicated that there were localised areas suitable for locust breeding at the appropriate time other than those detected by ground survey. It is concluded that it isfeasible to use satellite data on an operational basis to detect areas suitable for locust breeding by monitoring changes in vegetation condition. Using the locust simulation model, the course of breeding and possible plague development can then be forecast, and ground surveys directed to the areas of interest at the approximate time.     

城市酒店业的碳排放核算及低碳指标分析

随着中国的快速城市化和服务业的发展,旅游业逐渐成为主要的温室气体排放者之一,酒店面临节能减排的压力并缺乏相关的评价标准.本文建立了生命周期的酒店业碳排放核算框架和低碳指标,并以宁波市为案例城市,对其3种类型的酒店进行碳排放核算和低碳指标的分析.结果表明,能源消费是酒店业最大的碳排放源,占93.5%~94.1%;各类酒店的碳排放量在2013—2015年间有约8.2%~9.2%的减少;从低碳指标看,五星级酒店的单位建筑面积的碳排放最小,单位出租间天数和单位旅客的碳排放最大,而四星级酒店的单位营业额碳排放最小.优化区域电力碳排放水平和酒店的软硬件设施是减少酒店碳排放的有效措施,碳标签是有效的酒店业低碳管理的政策工具.     

污染减排影响经济发展的投入产出模型及实证分析

构建了环境经济投入产出模型,针对淘汰落后产能对经济发展的影响进行了实证研究,定量计算了2006～2007年问淘汰落后产能对于经济社会发展的贡献度和影响.研究表明,虽然淘汰落后产能对于传统的国民经济发展指标有一定负面影响,但对于优化经济增长方式确实起到了积极作用.一是优化了产业结构,第一、二、三产业结构由2005年的12.4%,48.6%,39.0%调整为2006年的12.5%,48.2%和39.3%,2007年调整为12.6%,47.8%和39.6%,第二产业所占比重逐步下降,第三产业所占比重逐步上升;在第二产业内部.造纸、食品、电力、炼焦、金属冶炼、非金属矿物制品业等重污染行业的增加值所占比重持续下降,产业结构逐步得到优化.二是提高了经济效率,从涉及到的造纸、食品、电力、炼焦、金属冶炼、非金属矿物制品业6个产业部门2006年和2007年的COD和SO_2的产污系数看,都比2005年有所降低.2006年和2007年,食品制造业的单位增加值COD排放量比2005年分别下降了6.6%和25.0%;金属冶炼及压延加工业的单位增加值SO_2排放量比2005年分别下降3.5%和6.9%.     

环保产业发展现状、趋势与对策研究

当前国际上有关环保产业的称谓不一,其内涵、类别划分也存在一定差异。通过梳理国内外关于环保产业的定义,解析了环保产业的内涵和外延;分析了国内外环保产业发展现状及其存在的关键制约因素,指出未来我国环保产业发展的总体趋势仍将趋向于集聚化、园区化、专业化、高技术化及市场化。针对目前我国环保产业发展中存在的政策支持不力、科学技术能力不足、资金短缺等问题,提出以科技创新为动力,建设以市场需求和环境需求为导向的环保产业示范区,提高集聚区域的创新能力和国际竞争力。     

Fog simulation using a mesoscale model in and around the Yodo River Basin, Japan

In this study,fog simulations were conducted using the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) in and around the Yodo River Basin,Japan.The purpose is to investigate the MM5 performance of fog simulation for long-term periods.The simulations were performed for January,February,March,and July,2005 with a coarse 3-kin and a nested fine 1-km grid domains. Results of the simulations were compared with data from ten meteorological observatories,fog sampling site in Mt.Rokko,and visibility measu...     

低碳城市的评价指标体系完善与发展综合评价研究

首先,分析了低碳城市的概念和内涵;其次,在对已有的低碳城市评价指标体系评述的基础上,基于系统科学的观点,提出了比较全面的低碳城市评价指标体系;最后,从建设实践的角度,讨论了低碳城市发展的综合评价问题。     

Prospects for mitigating carbon,conserving biodiversity,and promoting socioeconomic development objectives through the clean development mechanism

Should forest-based climate mitigationmeasures be approved for crediting through the CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM), they could offer anopportunity to accomplish three important objectives:cost-effective reductions in carbon emissions andsequestration of atmospheric carbon; conservation andrestoration of forests and their biological diversity;and, the assistance of host countries and communitiesin their socioeconomic development. However,prospective investors in CDM projects, host countriesand other CDM `stakeholders' might be expected toplace widely different priorities on achieving theseobjectives. This paper describes several factors thatwill affect investor interest in CDM projects, thecharacteristics of forest-based CDM projects that willattract investments, and an approach to identifyingprojects that meet the key objectives of multiplestakeholders. This approach entails identifyingsites, such as degraded watersheds, where CDMfinancing for forest conservation and restoration cangenerate readily monetizable local and regionalsocioeconomic benefits, while mitigating carbonemissions in forests with importance for conservingbiodiversity.     

初始排放权分配对各省区碳交易策略及其减排成本的影响分析

碳排放权分配是我国碳交易机制设计的根本性问题之一.然而,不同初始分配方案对我国碳减排和宏观经济的影响尚不明确,成为制约碳交易市场快速发展的重要因素.本文以我国"十三五"时期碳排放强度下降目标为约束构建非线性规划模型,模拟了"祖父分配方案"、"支付能力方案"和"人口规模方案"3种初始排放权分配方案对各省区碳交易策略及其减...     

A comparison of five high-resolution spatially-explicit,fossil-fuel,carbon dioxide emission inventories for the United States

The quantification of fossil-fuel-related emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere is necessary in order to accurately represent carbon cycle fluxes and to understand and project the details of the global carbon cycle. In addition, the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) of carbon dioxide emissions is necessary for the success of international agreements to reduce emissions. However, existing fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO₂) emissions inventories vary in terms of the data and methods used to estimate and distribute FFCO₂. This paper compares how the approaches used to create spatially explicit FFCO₂ emissions inventories affect the spatial distribution of emissions estimates and the magnitude of emissions estimates in specific locales. Five spatially explicit FFCO₂ emission inventories were compared: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC), Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (FFDAS), Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO₂ (ODIAC), and Vulcan. The effects of using specific data and approaches in the creation of spatially explicit FFCO₂ emissions inventories, and the effect of resolution on data representation are analyzed using graphical, numerical, and cartographic approaches. We examined the effect of using top-down versus bottom-up approaches, nightlights versus population proxies, and the inclusion of large point sources. The results indicate that the approach used to distribute emissions in space creates distinct patterns in the distribution of emissions estimates and hence in the estimates of emissions in specific locations. The different datasets serve different purposes but collectively show the key role of large point sources and urban centers and the strong relationship between scale and uncertainty.     

“双碳”目标下林业资源型城市经济-环境-碳排放耦合协调发展研究—以伊春市为例

实现碳达峰、碳中和目标是我国近年来提出的重大战略决策,是引领我国绿色低碳发展的重要目标,可以带来环境质量改善和产业进步等多重效应。以我国典型的林业资源型城市——伊春市为研究对象,建立经济-环境-碳排放评价指标体系并运用熵值法和耦合协调度模型测算伊春市2010—2020年经济发展、环境质量和碳排放水平的耦合协调关系。结果表明：伊春市经济发展与环境质量总体呈上升趋势,但碳排放量和强度不断增加,整体由经济滞后型发展转变至环境和碳排放滞后型发展;伊春市耦合协调水平持续上升,由严重失调衰退发展至中级协调发展,环境和碳排放子系统需要加强改善。最后,从着力解决突出环境问题、强化节能增效和循环经济、大力发展林业经济、积极探索创新碳汇产品价值实现机制等方面出发,提出实现经济高质量发展目标的建议。

     

欧盟航海碳税违法性探析——兼谈国际社会的态度及中国的应对

<正>2012年,在欧盟航空碳排放税遭到多国联合抵制后,欧盟又再次酝酿向航海领域征收碳排放税,即"航海碳税"。与此前的航空碳税一样,欧盟为抛出航海碳税找了一个冠冕堂皇的理由——对抗全球气候变暖。同样,与航空碳税一样,国际社会对此的反对声也如航空领域一样激烈。我国的态度同很多国家一样,坚决反对欧盟就国际航海排放问题采取单边措施。欧盟推出的"航海碳税"是否违法?可从以下几方面进行分析:     

Energy efficiency to mitigate carbon emissions: strategies of China and the USA

In November 2014, the United States of America (USA) and the People’s Republic of China (China) governments announced their carbon emission reduction targets by 2030. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively project the two countries’ carbon emission reductions that will likely contribute to or facilitate the global climate change mitigation commitment and strategies in Paris in 2015. A top-down approach is used to analyze the relationship between China economic development and energy demand and to identify potentials of energy savings and carbon emission reduction in China. A simple time series approach is used to project carbon emission reduction in the USA. The predictions drawn from the analysis of this paper indicate that both China and the USA should use energy efficiency as first tool to achieve their carbon emission reduction goals.     

Technology development and cost analysis of multiple pollutant abatement for ultra-low emission coal-fired power plants in China

The implementation of ultra-low emission (ULE) limits (SO₂: 35 mg/m³, NOx: 50 mg/m³, PM: 10 mg/m³) promoted the development of flue gas treatment technologies in China. Pollutant control technology development for Chinese coal-fired power plants was summarized and an analysis of the applicability and cost of pollutant control technologies was conducted. Detailed data were collected from 30 ultra-low emission coal-fired units across China. Based on a cost analysis model, the average unit power generation incremental costs were 0.0144 and 0.0095 CNY/(kW·hr) for SO₂ and NOx control technologies, respectively. The unit power generation incremental cost of twin spray tower technology was 7.2% higher than that of dual-loop spray tower technology. The effect of key parameters on operating cost was analyzed. The unit power generation incremental cost increased because of increments in the electricity price for SO₂ control technology and the price of the reductant in NOx control technology. With high sulfur content or NOx concentration, the unit power generation incremental cost caused by pollutant control increased, whereas the unit pollutant abatement cost decreased. However, the annual operating hours or load increased, thereby leading to a decline in unit power generation incremental cost and unit pollutant abatement cost.     

Hybrid evolutionary computation for the development of pollution prevention and control strategies

Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is an evolutionary algorithm based on the behavior of social animals. Its key advantage is its computational efficiency compared to related techniques such as genetic algorithm (GA). Use of a modified PSO algorithm in selecting an optimal array of pollution prevention techniques for clay brick production is described. The model is formulated as a multi-constraint knapsack optimization problem. The optimization technique used in the study is a binary PSO augmented with a GA-based mutation operator.     

北京市能源消费碳足迹影响因素分析

为了量化人口、城市化和技术等因素对城市碳排放的影响,以北京市为研究对象,引入修正的碳足迹方法计算1990~2011年城市能源消费碳足迹,采用STIRPAT模型和偏小二乘模型对城市能源消费碳足迹的影响因素进行评估.结果显示,城市化、人均收入、人口是碳排放最主要的正向驱动因素,而能源消费强度、产业结构和研发投入比重等因素导致碳排放降低.北京市二氧化碳排放不存在环境库兹涅茨曲线,城市碳排放总量虽然整体状况还在增加,但增长速度在逐步放缓,经济发展与环境保护尚未实现协同.根据模拟结果,降低碳排放和建设低碳城市的建议是发展集中型和紧凑型的城镇功能组团,控制人口过快增长,合理引导居民绿色消费,依靠科技创新和技术进步.