Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: The importance of additional climatic variables other than temperature and precipitation

Climate change shifts the distributions of a set of climatic variables, including temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, sunshine duration, and evaporation. This paper explores the importance of those additional climatic variables other than temperature and precipitation. Using the county-level agricultural data from 1980 to 2010 in China, we find that those additional climatic variables, especially humidity and wind speed, are critical for crop growth. Therefore, omitting those variables is likely to bias the predicted impacts of climate change on crop yields. In particular, omitting humidity tends to overpredict the cost of climate change on crop yields, while ignoring wind speed is likely to underpredict the effect. Our preferred specification indicates that climate change is likely to decrease the yields of rice, wheat, and corn in China by 36.25%, 18.26%, and 45.10%, respectively, by the end of this century.     

论全球生态经济系统的不可持续性——基于农业生态系统承载力视角

运用3种方法预测的作物产量潜力分别为：（1）利用作物历年单产回归拟合后进行趋势外推,得出多数作物的未来产量潜力极限大约将是现在单产的2～3倍;（2）运用＂国际应用系统研究所＂（IIASA）与＂联合国粮农组织＂（FAO）共同开发的＂农业生态区划＂（AEZ）模型计算我国主要粮油作物的区域单产最高潜力,得出水稻、小麦、玉米、马铃薯、油菜和大豆的单产潜力分别是它们2005年全国平均单产的1.2、2.2、2.2、2.9、2.0、1.9倍;（3）运用自然界中植物的最大光能利用率计算世界主要粮油作物单产的光合潜力,得出水稻、小麦、玉米、马铃薯、油菜、大豆产量的最大光合生产潜力大约分别是目前高产地区单产的1.4、2.5、1.2、1.8、1.9、2.2倍。据此：从作物产量潜力极限出发,阐述了农业生态系统的承载力;再从＂封闭＂系统特性出发,论述了全球生态经济系统的不可持续性。人类所能做的是尽力延缓＂终点＂的出现：行动越早,效果越好。     

Spatio-temporal variation of near-surface wind speed over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1970 to 2020北大核心CSCD

基于1970-2020年青藏高原区域及其附近154个气象站点的风速风向观测数据,采用线性拟合等方法,分析该地区年平均和季节平均近地面风速的时空分布特征和日变化特征.结果表明:(1)青藏高原区域1970-2020年年均风速在0.6-4.2m/s之间,青藏高原主体年均风速较高,高原周边地区风速较低;(2)青藏高原区域1970-2020年间近地面风速呈极显著下降趋势,2000年以后呈极显著增加趋势;(3)青藏高原区域1970-2020年间近地面风速春季最大,冬、夏次之,秋季最小,不同季节平均风速均是高原主体大于高原周边,4个季节的平均风速均呈极显著降低趋势,春季平均风速降低的速率最大;(4)大气环流驱动力的减弱可能是青藏高原区域地面风速呈减弱趋势的主导性因素.青藏高原近地面风速显著的变化特征可为青藏高原风能资源开发利用、农林生态系统开发与保护等提供科学依据.(图5参46)     

Ecosystems and human health: The local benefits of forest cover in Indonesia

This paper documents the effect of primary forest cover loss on increased incidence of malaria. The evidence is consistent with an ecological response. I show that land use change, anti-malarial programs or migration cannot explain the effect of primary forest cover loss on increased malarial incidence. Falsification tests reveal that the effect is specific to malaria, with forest cover having no discernible effect on other diseases with a disease ecology different from that of malaria. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that the morbidity-related malaria-reducing local benefits of primary forests are at least $1-$2 per hectare.     

基于MODIS数据的河南省冬小麦产量遥感估算模型

小麦是世界上最重要的粮食作物,小麦生产对中国的粮食保障起着十分重要的作用,及时、准确、大范围对小麦产量进行监测预报,对于农学经济发展和粮食政策制定具有极为重要的现实意义。对作物产量进行遥感监测的原理是建立在其遥感特征基础之上的,通过建立作物长势指标与遥感信息的定量关系,可实现对作物产量的监测预报。文章基于2009年MODIS遥感数据和气象数据,利用Arcgis和ENVI提取纯小麦像元,并提取纯小麦像元对应的NDVI、NPP和LAI,获取分县NDVI、NPP和LAI均值,利用统计软件对产量数据和分县遥感参数均值进行数据整理和分析,建立了河南省冬小麦产量估算模型。以往研究多采用遥感图像上某像元和地面调查点进行研究,具有很大的不确定性,文章以县为单位,对冬小麦平均单产和县域内冬小麦种植像元遥感参数的均值进行相关研究,提高了模型模拟精度。同时文章选用多种遥感参数和多项气象因子建立估产模型,避免了针对一个参数进行估产的局限性。在最佳时相的选择上,根据冯美辰（2010）以往的研究结果,从4月以后,5月8日和4月20Et植被指数和产量相关性最大,4月份之前冬小麦处于返青到拔节期,对产量来说还有很多不确定闪素,因此文章选用5月8El和4月20日进行冬小麦估产研究。结果表明,5月8日的估产模型优于4月20日,加入气象冈子的遥感气象估产模型优于只采用遥感参数进行估产的遥感模型。利用2010年产量数据对模型精度进行检验,遥感气象模型预测精度在70．2％N99．7％之间,平均精度为90．7％;遥感模型预测精度在68．1％到95．5％之间,平均精度为83．9％。表明遥感气象模型模拟精度更高,其精度可以满足大面积估产要求,可以对产量预报提供科学参考。     

辽西褐土施肥及养分循环再利用中长期试验Ⅰ. 作物产量

在辽宁西部褐土上历时10 a的田间试验结果表明：氮肥对提高作物产量效果最好,平均增产率50%,平均每千克 N增产粮食21 kg。供试褐土富磷,试验前3 a施磷肥不显增产作用,之后增产明显,10 a平均增产率10.9%,平均每千克 P增产粮食47 kg。供试褐土富钾,连续10 a施钾肥不显增产作用。 在施用化肥基础上每年以60%收获产品直接堆腐回田,可比对应的化肥处理分别增产（10 a平均）40.6%（无肥对照）、19.5%（N肥基础）、12.1%（NP肥）和8.1%（NPK肥）,平均年增产粮食（混合、烘干）分别为1.54、1.08、0.79、0.52 t/hm2。养分循环再利用的作物增产效益在试验的10 a中有着逐年增长的趋势,表明以堆肥形式循环回田养分的作物增产作用有着明显的残效叠加效应。     

江英乡石灰岩山区农业综合开发与治理研究 Ⅰ.自然资源、环境与土壤肥力特性

论述了阳山县江英乡生态环境特点、土壤类型和各类土壤的肥力特性。着重讨论了生态环境与作物生长的关系,指出了各类土壤种植作物的适宜性,为阳山县江英乡农业综合开发与治理提供了科学依据。     

生态规划在冕宁县城市总体规划中的作用研究

以冕宁县的生态规划为例,通过对冕宁县生态城市规划建设背景的研究,确定其生态城市建设的定位,通过分析冕宁县城市的现状,得出了冕宁县进行生态城市规划的总体思路.生态城市建设的重点是对城市的生态功能进行划分,生态功能划分的原则包括生态城市功能区划的原则、可持续发展原则、区域相关原则、部分与整体协调原则、相似性原则、环境容量和环境承载力原则以及区域特色原则等等.通过对冕宁县城市生态区域的划分,将生态规划彻底融入冕宁县的总体规划之中,进一步改善冕宁县生态环境、人居环境和发展环境,不断提高城乡人民生活质量,将冕宁建设成为生态县.     

Assessment of land degradation and its impact on crop production in the Dry Zone of Myanmar

Land degradation in terms of soil degradation is a major environmental issue posing threat to sustainable livelihood in the semi-arid region of Central Myanmar. However, the studies on soil degradation status and its impacts in this region are very scanty. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of land degradation on crop production both in terms of area and yield in the Dry Zone of Myanmar. Remote sensing and geographic information system-based modelling was utilized to assess and map soil erosion rates. Household survey was conducted to understand the causes of land degradation and its impacts on crop productivity and livelihoods. It has been found out that the current rate of soil erosion ranged from 0 to 114 t ha^–1 yr^–1, and that the average rate of soil erosion increased from 14.2 to 54.6 t ha^–1 yr^–1 over a period from 2000 to 2012. The major types of land degradation were physical and chemical soil degradation. Farmers identified topographic condition, soil types, improper crop management practices and climatic factors as the main causes of soil erosion. The observed crop yields of monsoon rice, groundnut, sesame and cotton in the highly degraded area were 3–12 times lower compared with the yields of these crops grown in less degraded area. Livelihoods of the farmers in the high-degraded area were affected by crop yield reduction, increased cultivation cost and increased uncultivable land area. The impact of land degradation on crop production was dependent on the severity of degradation. This suggests that advanced conservation measures are immediately required and the supportive policy strategies need to be implemented to educate farmers and to strengthen extension services for sustainable land management in the Dry Zone of Myanmar.     

Harvesting the sun: New estimations of the maximum population of planet Earth

The maximum population, also called Earth's carrying capacity, is the maximum number of people that can live on the food and other resources available on planet Earth. Previous investigations estimated the maximum carrying capacity as large as about 1 trillion people under the assumption that photosynthesis is the limiting process. Here we use a present state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model with managed planetary land surface, Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL), to calculate the yields of the most productive crops on a global 0.5° × 0.5° grid. Using the 2005 crop distribution the model predicts total harvested calories that are sufficient for the nutrition of 11.4 billion people. We define scenarios where humankind uses the whole land area for agriculture, saves the rain forests and the boreal evergreen forests or cultivates only pasture to feed animals. Every scenario is run in an extreme version with no allowance for urban and recreational needs and in two soft versions with a certain area per person for non-agricultural use. We find that there are natural limits of the maximum carrying capacity which are independent of any increase in agricultural productivity, if non-agricultural land use is accounted for. Using all land planet Earth can sustain 282 billion people. The save-forests-scenario yields 150 billion people. The scenario that cultivates only pasture to feed animals yields 96 billion people. Nevertheless, we should always have in mind that all our calculated numbers for the carrying capacity refer to extreme scenarios where humankind may only vegetate on this planet. Our numbers are considerably higher than the general median estimate of upper bounds of human population found in the literature in the order of 10 billion.     

农林复合经营研究──桉树人工林间种西瓜对林木和土壤的效应

本文调查研究了雷州林业局纪家、河头林场桉树人工林间种西瓜对林木和土壤的影响．结果表明，利用造林前空隙种一造西瓜或在桉树林地间种西瓜，均有利于桉树生长．单位面积林木蓄积量和年生长量均比对照林分显著增加，经济效益显著；土壤养分也有增加。作为农林复合经营的有益尝试，值得在有条件的地区推广。     

Infant health impacts of freshwater algal blooms: Evidence from an invasive species natural experiment

Economists are increasingly interested in causally interpretable estimates of environmental health externalities, particularly on infant health. This paper focuses on a specific case by investigating microcystin, a toxin produced by freshwater blue-green algal blooms. We exploit a natural experiment caused by a zebra mussel die-off in a large lake located in the state of Michigan, USA to identify changes in microcystin-related infant outcomes surrounding the lake. Using both the synthetic control method and a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that instances of low birth weight around the lake fell by 1.4 percentage points after lake water quality improved. Along the intensive margin, birth weight and length of gestation increased by 17.1 g and 0.47 weeks, respectively. Improvements to low birth weight result in $768,500 in average annual hospitalization cost savings. Many robustness and falsification tests are performed including using both annual and monthly data and accounting for possible weather confounders and seasonality. Results suggest that microcystin can affect infant health at levels below current water advisory guidelines.     

基于生态足迹模型的区域可持续发展定量评估——以东江流域东源县为例

可持续发展定量评价方法研究是当前可持续发展研究的前沿和热点.生态足迹分析模型是通过对区域人口对自然利用程度的测度,确定区域的发展是否处于生态承载力范围之内.运用生态足迹理论和计算方法,采用2004-2007年东源县统计年鉴、历年年初土地面积、2002世界粮农组织(FAO)和世界自然基金会(WWF)的相关数据,对重点饮用水源地--东源县14 a(1994-2007年)来人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力进行实证计算和分析.结果表明:2007年的东源县人均生态足迹需求为0.856 1 hm~2·cap~(-1),而实际人均生态空间面积(均衡承载力面积)为1.641 8 hm~2·cap~(-1),人均生态盈余为0.588 7hm~2·cap~(-1).14 a来东源县的生态承载力总体上几乎都是大于生态需求(除了1995年、1996年生态需求略大于生态供给外),处于生态盈余状态且生态盈余呈现稳中增长的趋势,区域生态系统处于一种相对可持续状态.其中,林地生态承载量最大,生态盈余最多,呈现逐年减少的态势;耕地生态承载量次之,生态足迹最大,生态赤字大,生态压力严重;水域和草地的生态压力逐年增大.     

The social cost of carbon revisited

An estimate of the social cost of carbon (SCC) is crucial to climate policy. But how should we estimate the SCC? A common approach uses an integrated assessment model (IAM) to simulate time paths for the atmospheric CO₂ concentration, its impact on temperature, and resulting reductions in GDP. I have argued that IAMs have deficiencies that make them poorly suited for this job, but what is the alternative? I present an approach to estimating an average SCC, which I argue can be a useful guide for policy. I rely on a survey of experts to elicit opinions regarding (1) probabilities of alternative economic outcomes of climate change, but not the causes of those outcomes; and (2) the reduction in emissions required to avert an extreme outcome, i.e., a large climate-induced reduction in GDP. The average SCC is the ratio of the present value of lost GDP from an extreme outcome to the total emission reduction needed to avert that outcome. I discuss the survey instrument, explain how experts were identified, and present results. I obtain SCC estimates of $200/mt or higher, but the variation across experts is large. Trimming outliers and focusing on experts who expressed a high degree of confidence in their answers yields lower SCCs, $80 to $100/mt, but still well above the IAM-based estimates used by the U.S. government.     

Development and optimization of an Agro-BGC ecosystem model for C4 perennial grasses

Extrapolating simulations of bioenergy crop agro-ecosystems beyond data-rich sites requires biophysically accurate ecosystem models and careful estimation of model parameters not available in the literature. To increase biophysical accuracy we added C₄ perennial grass functionality and agricultural practices to the Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles) ecosystem model. This new model, Agro-BGC, includes enzyme-driven C₄ photosynthesis, individual live and dead leaf, stem, and root carbon and nitrogen pools, separate senescence and litter fall processes, fruit growth, optional annual seeding, flood irrigation, a growing degree day phenology with a killing frost option, and a disturbance handler that simulates nitrogen fertilization, harvest, fire, and incremental irrigation. To obtain spatially generalizable vegetation parameters we used a numerical method to optimize five unavailable parameters for Panicum virgatum (switchgrass) using biomass yield data from three sites: Mead, Nebraska, Rockspring, Pennsylvania, and Mandan, North Dakota. We then verified simulated switchgrass yields at three independent sites in Illinois (IL). Agro-BGC is more accurate than Biome-BGC in representing the physiology and dynamics of C₄ grass and management practices associated with agro-ecosystems. The simulated two-year average mature yields with single-site Rockspring optimization have Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of 70, 152, and 162 and biases of 43, −87, 156 g carbon m⁻² for Shabbona, Urbana, and Simpson IL, respectively. The simulated annual yields in June, August, October, December, and February have RMSEs of 114, 390, and 185 and biases of −19, −258, and 147 g carbon m⁻² for Shabbona, Urbana, and Simpson IL, respectively. These RMSE and bias values are all within the largest 90% confidence interval around respective IL site measurements. Twenty-four of twenty-six simulated annual yields with Rockspring optimization are within 95% confidence intervals of Illinois site measurements during the mature fourth and fifth years of growth. Ten of eleven simulated two-year average mature yields with Rockspring optimization are within 65% confidence intervals of Illinois site measurements and the eleventh is within the 95% confidence interval. Rockspring optimized Agro-BGC achieves accuracies comparable to those of two previously published models: Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) and Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM). Agro-BGC suffers from static vegetation parameters that can change seasonally and as plants age. Using mature plant data for optimization mitigates this deficiency. Our results suggest that a multi-site optimization scheme using mature plant data from more sites would be adequate for generating spatially generalizable vegetation parameters for simulating mature bioenergy crop agro-ecosystems with Agro-BGC.     

三高农业与土肥

三高农业与土壤和肥料有密切的关系。地力是作物产量的重要基础,要取得高产,就必须坚持不懈地培肥地力。综合地力、土壤中营养元素及有害或有毒物质的含量、肥料类型和施肥技术,都对农产品的品质有很大的影响。要提高农产品的产量和质量,就要因土种植,合理施肥。高产优质是经济效益的主要构成因素,因而,培肥地力、因土种植、合理施肥能提高经济效益。忽视土肥工作,将影响三高农业的发展。     

Conservation agriculture and climate resilience

Agricultural productivity growth is vital for economic and food security outcomes which are threatened by climate change. In response, governments and development agencies are encouraging the adoption of ‘climate-smart’ agricultural technologies, such as conservation agriculture (CA). However, there is little rigorous evidence that demonstrates the effect of CA on production or climate resilience, and what evidence exists is hampered by selection bias. Using panel data from Zimbabwe, we test how CA performs during extreme rainfall events - both shortfalls and surpluses. We control for the endogenous adoption decision and find that use of CA in years of average rainfall results in no yield gains, and in some cases yield loses. However, CA is effective in mitigating the negative impacts of deviations in rainfall. We conclude that the lower yields during normal rainfall seasons may be a proximate factor in low uptake of CA. Policy should focus promotion of CA on these climate resilience benefits.     

Water use efficiency of a mixed cropping system of corn with grasses

A new cropping system of corn mixed with grasses was tried to make full and efficient use of water and to ease environmental problems such as soil erosion by water and wind in grain and forage feed production practices. Field experiments were conducted to investigate the water use efficiency under this mixture cropping system. Six treatments with two replicates were arranged as: bare field, corn only, rye only, alfalfa only, rye–corn mixture and alfalfa–corn mixture. Lysimeters were used to measure different components of water consumption in the crop fields for water use efficiency estimation. From the yields and water consumption of crops under different treatments, combined water use efficiency of corn and grasses were estimated. The results showed that WUEs in the mixed cropping fields of corn–grasses were much higher than those in the fields where only corn or grass were grown. Averaged WUE was 3.71 kg/m³ from the corn and rye mixture fields, 30% higher than that from the plots where only corn or rye were grown. Averaged WUE was 4.55 kg/m³ from the alfalfa and corn mixture fields, 60% higher than that from the fields where only corn or alfalfa were grown. Under the same conditions of irrigation, yields from the rye and corn mixture plots increased by 33%, as compared with those from fields where only corn or rye were grown. The yields from alfalfa and corn mixture fields were 61% higher than those from fields where only corn or alfalfa were grown. The experimental results also indicated that corn and alfalfa mixture cropping is better than a corn–rye mixture system.     

旱地赤红壤钾素的Q/I特性

对12种旱地赤红壤与1种参比水稻土的钾素Q/I特性进行比较,结果表明,旱地由于土壤粘粒少,有机质质量分数低等因素的影响,其易释放钾库及供钾能力均小,钾位的缓冲性能很差,阳离子交换量较低;如不施钾肥或施肥不当,会造成作物减产或钾素损失。而由不同母质发育的旱地赤红壤,Q/I特性差别不大。