Analyzing the effectiveness of international environmental policies: The case of the Kyoto Protocol

We study the effectiveness of emission targets under the Kyoto Protocol with respect to reducing CO₂ emissions. Using country-level and US state-level panel data and employing the synthetic control method, we find very little evidence for an emission reduction effect for the major emitters among the Annex B countries with binding emission targets. More generally, we also show that evaluating the effectiveness of international environmental policies at the country level comes with a number of empirical challenges that may invalidate findings based on more traditional panel data approaches.     

Uncertainty analysis of climate change mitigation options in the forestry sector using a generic carbon budget model

Industrialized countries agreed on a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. Many countries elected forest management activities and the resulting net balance of carbon emissions and removals of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases by forest management in their climate change mitigation measures. In this paper a generic dynamic forestry model (FORMICA) is presented. It has an empirical basis. Several modules trace C pools relevant for the Kyoto Protocol and beyond: biomass, litter, deadwood and soil, and harvested wood products. The model also accounts for the substitution of fossil fuels by wood products and bioenergy.     

Teil VI: Die Ökobilanz der Universität Osnabrück

Within the development of the “Osnabrück Environmental Management Model for Universities,” an environmental audit for the university has been carried out for the first time. It was implemented by way of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) based on ISO 14 040. Following this, an LCA includes the four steps:goal and scope definition, inventory analysis, impact assessment andinterpretation. The impact assessment phase of the LCA was carried out following the ”UBA-Method” of the German Federal Environmental Agency (UBA) which is based on the method of impact categories described in ISO 14 040 and implemented in the software Umberto^®. The most significant results are that the University contributes “considerably” towards both categories, “Depletion of fossil energy resources” and “Climate change”. The main causes of this are electricity and heat consumption as well as traffic. In order to improve its environmental situation, the university has been recommended to reduce its CO₂ emissions, its consumption of fossil energy resources and its methane emissions.     

Co-benefits and additionality of the clean development mechanism: An empirical analysis

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows industrialized countries to comply with the Kyoto Protocol by using carbon offsets from developing countries. There are two puzzles within this carbon market: additionality (the proposed activity would not have occurred in its absence) and co-benefits (the project has other environmental benefits besides climate mitigation). This paper proposes an econometric approach to evaluate the CDM effect on sulfur dioxide emission reductions and assess its additionality indirectly. Our empirical model is applied to China's emissions at the prefecture level. We found that the CDM does not have a statistically significant effect in lowering sulfur dioxide emissions. This result casts doubt on additionality of these CDM activities, that is, they would have happened anyway.     

Do renewable energy policies reduce carbon emissions? On caps and inter-industry leakage

In a parsimonious two-sector general equilibrium model, we challenge the widely-held tenet that within a cap-and-trade system renewable energy policies have no effect on carbon emissions. If the cap does not capture all sectors, we demonstrate that variations of a renewable energy subsidy change aggregate carbon emissions through an inter-industry leakage effect. We decompose this effect into intuitively intelligible components that depend in natural ways on measurable elasticity parameters. Raising the subsidy always reduces emissions if funded by a lump-sum tax, reinforcing recent findings that tightening environmental regulation can cause negative leakage. However, if the subsidy is funded by a levy on electricity, it can increase emissions. These results provide a valuable basis for an informed design of renewable energy policies and an accurate assessment of their effectiveness. We highlight how a state-of-the-art statistic used by governments to gauge such effectiveness, “virtual emission reductions”, is biased, because inter-industrial leakage effects are not captured.     

Abschätzung der Einträge von polyzyklischen aromatischen Kohlenwasserstoffen in deutsche Gewässer

Background, aim, and scope Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) result from incomplete combustion of almost every organic materials, e.?g. due to forest fires, residential heating, combustion engines, grilling, or smoking. PAH are predominantly distributed over the air-path. Their usage in products (e.?g. moth-balls) has been limited strictly or completely forbidden in the past. In the context of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD), the single substances anthracene, fluoranthene and naphthalene, as well as PAHs as group of substances, are listed as “priority” substances. Background of this work is a first compilation of sources of PAH emissions, and in this context, the collection of all relevant data and information to calculate the total emissions into surface waters in Germany. Materials and methods Within the scope of diverse research projects, funded by the German Environmental Agency, the available data material concerning PAH input in surface waters has been analyzed by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research. On the basis of the collected data, a first evaluation of relevance of the different sources has been conducted using the model MONERIS. Results As a result of the atmospheric deposition, PAHs enter, to a large extent, surface waters directly or indirectly through surface runoff (e.?g. urban areas, wastewater treatment plants, erosion). Discussion Although there is still additional research need for some of the covered PAH sources, a noticeable distribution pattern of relevance emerges. Conclusions The scenarios, based on the currently known sources, show that the implementation or the neglect of emission reduction measures in the field of diffuse air-borne PAHs are crucial for the further development of the deposition of PAHs in surface waters. More far-reaching studies are necessary, e.?g. concerning emissions from inland navigation/motor boats, the inhomogeneous source “products”, or the path “erosion”. Recommendations and perspectives According to the EU-WFD, all depositions, emissions and losses of “priority hazardous” classified substances, such as the group of PAHs, have to be stopped or gradually finished in the long term. Until the year 2015, environmental quality standards (EQS) have to be met for all “priority substances”. Presently, the EQS often are not completely fulfilled for many substances of the PAH group, including benzo(a)pyrene. Reduction measures are necessary within diverse areas, especially concerning diffuse atmospheric emissions (e.?g. “residential heating”).     

Price controls and banking in emissions trading: An experimental evaluation

We present results from laboratory emissions markets designed to investigate the effects of price controls and permit banking on limiting permit price risk. While both instruments reduce between-period price volatility and within-period price dispersion, combining price controls and permit banking yields important benefits. Banking alone produces high permit prices in earlier periods that fall over time, but the combined policy produces lower initial prices and lower volatility. However, banking, price controls, and the combination all produce higher between-period emissions volatility. Hence, for emissions markets that seek to control flow pollutants with strictly convex damages, efforts to limit permit price risk can result in higher expected damage.     

The ecological insurance trap

Common pool resources often insure individual livelihoods against the collapse of private endeavors. When endeavors based on private and common pool resources are interconnected, investment in one can put the other at risk. We model Senegalese pastoralists who choose whether to grow crops, a private activity, or raise livestock on common pool pastureland. Livestock can increase the likelihood of locust outbreaks via ecological processes related to grassland degradation. Locust outbreaks damage crops, but not livestock, which are used for savings and insurance. We show the incentive to self-protect (reduce grazing pressure) or self-insure (increase livestock levels) changes with various property rights schemes and levels of ecological detail. If the common pool nature of insurance exacerbates the ecological externality even fully-informed individuals may make risk management decisions that increase the probability of catastrophe, creating an “insurance trap.”     

Geophagy in animals and geology of kudurs (mineral licks): a review of Russian publications

This paper reviews from the geological and biological perspectives the achievements of Russian researchers in the field of geophagy, which have not been published in English. It is focused on publications in Russian language about (1) animal behavior related to geophagy, (2) mineral and chemical composition as well as geological characteristics and biological effects of the earths, eaten by animals in various locations in Russia and neighboring countries. The authors argue that the Russian term “solonetz” (salt lick) is too limiting, as animals consume not just salt but many other minerals too. The more general term “kudur” is used for places where animals eat earths. The geological nature and biological properties of kudurites (the common name given to biologically active mineral-crystal substances consumed by animals) and gastroliths (stones consumed by birds and reptiles) are addressed. On the basis of the reviewed data, the authors propose their own views regarding the causes of geophagy.     

Prioritizing debt conversion opportunities for marine conservation

Incentivized debt conversion is a financing mechanism that can assist countries with a heavy debt burden to bolster their long-term domestic investment in nature conservation. The Nature Conservancy, an international conservation-based nongovernmental organization, is adapting debt conversions to support marine conservation efforts by small island developing states and coastal countries. Prioritizing debt conversion opportunities according to their potential return on investment can increase the impact and effectiveness of this finance mechanism. We developed guidance on how to do so with a decision-support approach that relies on a novel threat-based adaptation of cost-effectiveness analysis. We constructed scenarios by varying parameters of the approach, including enabling conditions, expected benefits, and threat classifications. Incorporating both abatable and unabatable threats affected priorities across planning scenarios. Similarly, differences in scenario construction resulted in unique solution sets for top priorities. We show how environmental organizations, private entities, and investment banks can adopt structured prioritization frameworks for making decisions about conservation finance investments, such as debt conversions. Our guidance can accommodate a suite of social, ecological, and economic considerations, making the approach broadly applicable to other conservation finance mechanisms or investment strategies that seek to establish a transparent process for return-on-investment decision-making.     

Emission reduction and profit-neutral permit allocations

The present paper addresses two policy objectives: to implement a market for pollution permits and to make regulation acceptable for businesses. Profit-neutral permit allocations are defined as the number of permits that the regulator should give for free so that post-regulation profits (i.e. a firm's profits in the products market plus the value of the allowances granted for free) are equal to pre-regulation profits. The proposed model is developed by assuming that firms use polluting technologies and compete “à la Cournot”. The paper demonstrates that a low number of free allowances is sufficient to meet these two goals. Moreover, the regulator can fully offset losses, even when the reduction in emissions is high, provided that the sectors concerned are not monopolies, both for isoelastic and linear demand functions.     

Review on environmental policies in China: Evolvement, features, and evaluation

This article reviews the development of current environmental policies in China and the great progress made during 1979–2006. Applying lessons learned from industrialized countries to its own situation, China’s environmental policies have the following main features: (1) to explore command and control measures to their fullest extent, (2) to strive to raise funding for environmental protection, (3) to identify who should take accountability for environmental protection; (4) to encourage strategies of “combination of prevention and control” and “integrated utilization”, (5) to embrace openness in the field of environmental policy and early international cooperation. During the past 30 years, China’s environmental policies have evolved and deepened: status expanded the national basic policies of environmental protection by adding a sustainable development strategy, focus changed from pollution control to a combination of pollution control and ecological protection, method changed from end control to source control, scope changed form point source control to watershed and territory pollution control, and management style changed from primarily using executive power to using legal and economic measures. This article introduces how they are evaluated by the international community and provides the prospects of the policies.     

Cost-sharing approach for air quality control implementation A case study

The objective of the study was to investigate and develop new alternative approaches to effectively meeting the federal SOx and particulate ambient air quality standards at cost savings. Since air pollution control costs would very likely be passed along to the consumer, it is in the best interests of the consumer and industry to find the least-cost alternative policies. Cost-sharing possesses advantages not shared by other control schemes, such as emissions taxes, auctioning of “pollution certificates,” or other methods. The results of this paper indicate that the cost-sharing approach is useful for particulates control in order to minimize the burden of plants already performing substantial control who may require significant added capital investment beyond their initial amount. For SO_ξ emissions control the cost-sharing analysis calculations show significant savings in nearly all situations, whether or not stack gas treatment methods were assumed available. Furthermore, the cost-sharing approach may allow further savings when the particular cost requirements of an individual firm differ substantially from the average engineering cost estimates. A cost-sharing option should thus be included in implementation plans as an option to be used by industries at their own initiative. The spatial characteristics of emissions resulting from a particular application of the cost-sharing approach are considered. A spatial airshed emissions allocation model is discussed as a useful method of evaluating cost sharing.     

The “second dividend” and the demographic structure

The demographic structure of a country influences economic activity. The “second dividend” modifies growth. Accordingly, in general equilibrium, the second dividend and the demographic structure are interrelated. This paper aims at assessing empirically the “second dividend” in a dynamic, empirical and intertemporal setting that allows for measuring its impact on growth, its intergenerational redistributive effects, and its interaction with the demographic structure. The paper uses a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, an energy module and a public finance module that distinguishes between non-ageing-related public spending and a pension regime. Policy scenarios compare the consequences of different scenarios of recycling a carbon tax through lower proportional income taxes rather than higher public lump-sum expenditures. They are computed for two countries with different demographics (France and Germany). Results suggest that the magnitude of the “second dividend” is significantly related with the demographic structure. The more concentrated the demographic structure on cohorts with higher income and saving rate, the stronger the effect on capital supply of the second dividend. The second dividend weighs on the welfare of relatively aged working cohorts. It fosters the wellbeing of young working cohorts and of future generations. The more concentrated the demographic structure on aged working cohorts, the higher the intergenerational redistributive effects of the second dividend.     

Integrierte Treibhausgasbewertung der Prozessketten von Erdgas und industriellem Biomethan in Deutschland

Background The use of natural gas has increased in the last years. In the future, its import supply and transport structure will diversify (longer distances, higher share of LNG (liquefied natural gas), new pipelines). Thus the process chain and GHG emissions of the production, processing, transport and distribution might change. Simultaneously, the injection of bio methane into the natural gas grid is becoming more important. Although its combustion is regarded as climate neutral, during the production processes of bio methane GHG emissions are caused. The GHG emissions occurring during the process chain of energy fuels are relevant for the discussion on climate policy and decision making processes. They are becoming even more important, considering the new Fuel Quality Directive of the EU (Dec. 2008), which aims at controlling emissions of the fuel process chains. Aim In the context of the aspects outlined above the aim is to determine the future development of gas supply for Germany and the resulting changes in GHG emissions of the whole process chain of natural gas and bio methane. With the help of two gas consumption scenarios and an LCA of bio methane, the amount of future emissions and emission paths until 2030 can be assessed and used to guide decision processes in energy policy. Results and discussion The process chain of bio methane and its future technical development are outlined and the related emissions calculated. The analysis is based on an accompanying research study on the injection of bio methane to the German gas grid. Two types of biogas plants have been considered whereof the “optimised technology” is assumed to dominate the future market. This is the one which widely exploits the potential of process optimisation of the current “state of the art” plant. The specific GHG emissions of the process chain can thus be nearly halved from currently 27.8?t CO₂-eq./TJ to 14.8?t CO₂-eq./TJ in 2030. GHG emissions of the natural gas process chain have been analysed in detail in a previous article. Significant modifications and a decrease of specific emissions is possible, depending on the level of investment in the modernisation of the gas infrastructure and the process improvements. These mitigation options might neutralise the emission increase resulting from longer distances and energy intensive processes. In the last section two scenarios (low and high consumption) illustrate the possible development of the German gas supply until 2030, given an overall share of 8–12?% of bio methane. Considering the dynamic emission factors calculated in the former sections, the overall gas emissions and average specific emissions of German gas supply can be given. The current emissions of 215.4 million t CO₂-eq. are reduced by 25?% in the low-consumption scenario (162 million t CO₂-eq.), where consumption is reduced by 17?%. Assuming a consumption which is increased by 17?% in 2030, emissions are around 7?% higher (230.9 million t CO₂-eq.) than today. Conclusions Gaseous fuels will still play a significant role for the German energy supply in the next two decades. The GHG emissions mainly depend on the amount of gas used. Thus, energy efficiency will be a key issue in the climate and energy related policy discussion. A higher share of bio methane and high investments in mitigation and best available technologies can significantly reduce the emissions of the process chain. The combustion of bio methane is climate neutral compared to 56?t CO₂/TJ caused by the direct combustion of natural gas (or 111?t CO₂/TJ emitted by lignite). The advantage of gaseous energy carriers with the lowest levels of GHG emissions compared to other fossil fuels still remains. This holds true for fossil natural gas alone as well as for the expected future blend with bio-methane.     

An environmental assessment of enhanced oil recovery

The objective of this assessment is to quantify some of the environmental effects of a significant increase in United States oil production by tertiary or enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods. The problems associated with each EOR technology are discussed and controls and regulations are briefly summarised. A tertiary oil production scenario for the United States was developed focussing only on mainland fields in the lower 48 states. It included all of the EOR methods expected to be in use during the next two decades. The environmental impacts, including water requirements, air emissions and generation of solid wastes, are then scaled to this scenario. The effects of control technologies and state regulations are considered. A comparison is also made between the impacts of EOR as an energy source and impacts associated with coal and synthetic fuels which concludes that EOR is preferable in many respects. There are environmental risks associated with EOR technologies, specific projects and specific fields in the production scenario; however, most problems are solvable by responsible regulation, enforcement of regulations and application of the best professional engineering by project operators.     

Evaluating greenhouse gas emissions inventories for agricultural burning using satellite observations of active fires

Fires in agricultural ecosystems emit greenhouse gases and aerosols that influence climate on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Annex 1 countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), many of which ratified the Kyoto Protocol, are required to report emissions of CH4 and N2O from these fires annually. In this study, we evaluated several aspects of this reporting system, including the optimality of the crops targeted by the UNFCCC globally and within Annex 1 countries, and the consistency of emissions inventories among different countries. We also evaluated the success of individual countries in capturing interannual variability and long-term trends in agricultural fire activity. In our approach, we combined global high-resolution maps of crop harvest area and production, derived from satellite maps and ground-based census data, with Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements of active fires. At a global scale, we found that adding ground nuts (e.g., peanuts), cocoa, cotton and oil palm, and removing potato, oats, rye, and pulse other from the list of 14 crops targeted by the UNFCCC increased the percentage of active fires covered by the reporting system by 9%. Optimization led to a different recommended list for Annex 1 countries, requiring the addition of sunflower, cotton, rapeseed, and alfalfa and the removal of beans, sugarcane, pulse others, and tuber-root others. Extending emissions reporting to all Annex 1 countries (from the current set of 19 countries) would increase the efficacy of the reporting system from 6% to 15%, and further including several non-Annex 1 countries (Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Kazakhstan, Mexico, and Nigeria) would capture over 55% of active fires in croplands worldwide. Analyses of interannual trends from the United States and Australia showed the importance of both intensity of fire use and crop production in controlling year-to-year variations in agricultural fire emissions. Remote sensing provides an effective means for evaluating some aspects of the current UNFCCC emissions reporting system; and, if combined with census data, field experiments and expert opinion, has the potential to improve the robustness of the next generation inventory system.     

Are there reasons against open-ended research into solar radiation management? A model of intergenerational decision-making under uncertainty

Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a means of last resort against dangerous climate change. We propose a stylized model of intergenerational decision making on SRM research, greenhouse-gas abatement and SRM deployment, under uncertainties about (a) the extent of future climate damage and (b) effectiveness and potential harmful side-effects of SRM. Open-ended research may reveal either that SRM effectively reduces climate damage, or that it would cause more harm than benefits. We find that SRM research increases the likelihood of deployment (“slippery slope”), and derive conditions that it decreases abatement effort in expectation (“moral hazard”). Neither of these provides a rationale against SRM research, though. The rational decision is to perform SRM research, unless (i) discounting is hyperbolic and (ii) the absolute prudence of expected climate damage is smaller than absolute risk aversion. These results generalize to the case where SRM research also provides information on climate sensitivity.     

Analyse „stetigkeitsbasierter“ Methoden zur Bestimmung von Stofffrachten in Fließgewässern

Aim and background

Increasing ecological awareness puts the load as a tool for water quality assessment in the foreground. Therefore it is very desirable to find optimal procedures for any given situation on basis of existing data. Criteria will be derived to fill that desire.

Method

The load for a water ingredient is an integrated entity of time-continuous loads (product of concentration and flow) for a given time, i.?e. a year (yearly load). Normally you can only observe a sample (in a statistical meaning) of these data. Therefore, load calculations vary with the concrete sample given. Each such calculation represents an estimation of the load, afflicted with some uncertainty. This uncertainty can be quantified, at least approximatively, by adding variance (scatter around “expected” mean) and the square of bias (divergence of “expected” mean from true mean). This quantity is called “mean squared error”. The methodological results will be illustrated by examples.

Focus

The main focus lies on the methodologies, which, besides data of concentrations observed discretely in time, additionally use quasi-continuously recorded data of other variates, namely the flow. For that situation, statistical models are developed and the load derived and estimated according to existing data. Hereby it is seen that all model based estimation formulae can be described as standard sampling formulae plus some additional terms which stem from comparison of some measurements (i.?e. mean) for quasi-continuous and discrete samples. This way a “continuity-correction” is performed on the standard formulae for the sampling case. This method is called “continuity-based” load determination.

Results

A surprising result is that no complicated mathematical-statistical models are necessary to determine the load. A simple linear concentration- or load-flow-model is sufficient. Additional variates lead, most of the time, to a larger mean squared error in load estimation, even when it is well known that they cannot detoriate the model fit. Only models which describe the concentration extraordinarily precise, near perfection, result in a smaller error.

Implications

It is enough to use one of the given formulae with some “continuity correction” to calculate a load. That can be done without using any software.     

Strategic pollution control and capital tax competition

In an analytical model of symmetric countries with mobile capital and local or transboundary pollution we investigate whether competition in emissions taxes (or emissions caps) and capital taxes leads to efficient outcomes when governments act strategically. When they have capital taxes and emissions caps at their disposal, they refrain from taxing capital and set their caps inefficiently lax [efficient] for transboundary [local] pollution. When they have the option to tax capital and emissions, capital is subsidized [untaxed] and emissions taxes are inefficiently low [efficient] for transboundary [local] pollution. In case of transboundary pollution emissions caps are Pareto-superior to emissions taxes. That holds regardless of whether the environmental policy is applied as stand-alone policy or combined with capital tax competition.