Urban afforestation and infant health: Evidence from MillionTreesNYC

This paper examines the impact of urban afforestation on infant health outcomes by exploiting a quasi-experimental setting where one million new trees were planted in New York City (NYC), but not in counties surrounding NYC over the same time period. Using a near-universal birth record of NYC and surrounding counties over 2004–2015 and employing both the synthetic control method and a difference-in-differences model, we find that an approximately 20% increase in urban forest cover decreased prematurity and low birth weight among mothers in NYC by 2.1 and 0.24 percentage points, respectively, relative to similar mothers outside of NYC. The low birth weight finding is equivalent to getting a mother smoking two cigarettes a day during pregnancy to quit. An internal validity test suggests that changes in the composition of NYC mothers cannot explain the observed effects. Additionally, we find evidence that declines in PM_2.5 concentrations and increases in outdoor walks are potential causal mechanisms. Results suggest that urban afforestation may be able to complement existing policies aimed at improving infant health.     

Air pollution as a cause of sleeplessness: Social media evidence from a panel of Chinese cities

We provide first evidence of a link from daily air pollution exposure to sleep loss in a panel of Chinese cities. We develop a social media-based, city-level metric for sleeplessness, and bolster causal claims by instrumenting for pollution with plausibly exogenous variations in wind patterns. Estimates of effect sizes are substantial and robust. In our preferred specification a one standard deviation increase in AQI causes an 11.6% increase in sleeplessness, and for PM_2.5 is 12.8%. The results sustain qualitatively under OLS estimation but are attenuated. The analysis provides a previously unaccounted for benefit of more stringent air quality regulation. It also offers a candidate mechanism in support of recent research that links daily air quality to diminished workplace productivity, cognitive performance, school absence, traffic accidents, and other detrimental outcomes.     

Temperature effects on mortality and household adaptation: Evidence from China

This paper examines the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality rates, using random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level panel data from China. The analysis finds a robust, U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality rates, indicating that extremely cold or hot temperatures lead to excess deaths. The heat-related (cold-related) effect is 3.5 times (3.2 times) as large as previous findings that used U.S. data, and it is especially large for the elderly population, mainly due to excess deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. Applying these results to climate change predictions from Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model shows that by 2061–2080 the annual mortality rate is likely to increase by 14.2% if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the estimated health cost of which is around 0.98 trillion Chinese Yuan per year. The paper also explores households’ adaptation behaviors to extreme temperatures. It finds that although urban households adaptively increase energy consumption when they are exposed to cold temperatures and purchase more air conditioners on hot and cold days, rural households are unresponsive to temperature fluctuations. This finding implies that rural people may be more resource constrained and suffer more when extreme temperatures occur.     

Neighborhood effects in the Brazilian Amazônia: Protected areas and deforestation

This article investigates whether protected areas are efficient instruments against deforestation in the Brazilian Amazônia. A Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model taking into account both the location bias and the spatial spillover effects between municipalities allows to assess the impact of the different types of protected areas (integral protected areas, sustainable protected areas and indigenous lands) on deforestation. We show that deforestation decisions are strategic complements. The econometric results differ according to the type of protected area. It is shown that: i) integral protected areas and indigenous lands allow for reducing deforestation; ii) sustainable use areas do not help to reduce deforestation; and iii) the spillover effects generated by integral protected areas and indigenous lands lead a reduction in deforestation in their vicinity. A 10% increase in the surface area of integral protected areas (indigenous lands) allows an estimated 9.32 sq. km (10.08 sq. km) of avoided deforestation.     

The impact of flooding on property prices: A repeat-sales approach

In this paper we use a repeat-sales model to analyse the price path of properties affected by flooding in England between 1995 and 2014. Our dataset contains information on 4.8 million houses with at least one repeat-sale. This database is merged with high-definition GIS data delineating the spatial extent of all recorded flood incidents in England covering a total area of 2,654 km². Our results show that immediately after a flood event the price of property in a postcode entirely inundated by inland flooding is on average 24.9% lower than non-flooded property, whereas for property in a postcode entirely inundated by coastal flooding the price reduction is 21.1%. Nonetheless, we find that this discount is short-lived and the discount is no longer statistically significant for properties affected by inland flooding after 5 years, which falls to just 4 years for properties affected by coastal flooding. For lower-priced properties however, the post-flood price discount can be observed up to 6–7 years for both inland and coastal flooding. The magnitude of the impact also depends on the characteristics of the properties, the characteristics of the flood and the existence of flood protection assets.     

Ecology of loggerhead marine turtles Caretta caretta in a neritic foraging habitat: movements, sex ratios and growth rates

Much is still to be learned about the spatial ecology of foraging marine turtles, especially for juveniles and adult males which have received comparatively little attention. Additionally, there is a paucity of ecological information on growth rates, size and age at maturity, and sex ratios at different life stages; data vital for successful population modelling. Here, we present results of a long-term (2002–2011) study on the movements, residency, growth and sex ratio of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) in Amvrakikos Gulf (39°0′N 21°0′E), Greece, using satellite telemetry (N = 8) and ongoing capture–mark–recapture (CMR; N = 300 individuals). Individuals encountered at sea ranged from large juvenile to adult (46.2–91.5 cm straight carapace length) and demonstrated growth rates within published norms (<2.7 cm yr^?1) that slowed with increasing body size. We revealed that an unexpectedly high proportion of animals were male (>44 % of captures above 65 cm straight carapace length), compared to region-wide female-biased hatchling production, indicating sex-biased survival or possible behavioural drivers for likelihood of capture in the region. Satellite tracking confirmed that some turtles establish discrete, protracted periods of residency spanning more than 1 year, whilst others migrated away from the site. These findings are underlined by CMR results with individual capture histories spanning up to 7 years, and only 18 % of individuals being recaptured.     

Klimawandel und zukünftig mögliche temperaturgesteuerte Malariatransmission in Deutschland

Background, aim and scope On behalf of the Centre of Excellence for Climate Effects and Adaption (KomPass) of the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA) an Expert Information System on Climate Change and Adaption (FISKA) was developed. FISKA shall provide the governmental institutions with basic information and models on climate change impacts for the development and accomplishment of adaption strategies. In this paper the impact model on potential temperature-dependent malaria transmissions is presented. It shows how, together with the REMO and WettReg climate models implemented in FISKA, areas at risk of malaria can be identified. Materials and methods FISKA was developed as an open and modular expert information system and allows the exchange of data and information with other institutions. Climate change impacts are implemented as calculation engines. The system allows for implementing additional data and impact models to improve existing impact models. For the calculation of the temperature-dependent potential secondary malaria infections the basic reproduction rate was used and the according algorithms were implemented in two calculation engines. One engine allows the calculation of the secondary infections and the other allows the calculation of the seasonal transmission gates. Measured air temperatures for the period 1961–2007 were provided by the German Meteorological Service (DWD), data on future air temperatures were extracted from the climate models REMO and WettReg for the climate reference periods 1991–2020, 2021–2050, and 2051–2080. The respective secondary infections and the resulting seasonal transmission gates for each period were regionalised on the basis of an ecological land classification to analyse significant ecoregional differences. Results Comparing the climate reference period 1961–1990 and the following period 1991–2007, the proportion of Germany featuring a potential seasonal malaria transmission gate of one or rather two months has been reduced in favour of a three months transmission gate. Accordingly, in the period 1991–2007 malaria transmissions during three months are possible on 70?% of the German territory instead of 26?% in 1961–1990. The percentage of a four months transmission gate has increased from 0.02?% to 0.76?%, and even a five months transmission is possible on 0.15?% of Germany. For future periods the number of potential secondary infections increases and further extensions of the seasonal transmission gates were revealed. In case of REMO A1B in 2051–2080, almost whole Germany features thermal conditions allowing malaria transmissions during four or rather five months. Discussion Rising air temperatures lead to changes in the spatial structure of the ecological elementary factor temperature, which can, under otherwise identical conditions, facilitate the reproduction of pathogens (here Plasmodium vivax) and vectors (here Anopheles atroparvus) as well as the spread of diseases. The basic reproduction rate serves the calculation of secondary malaria infections, which are the infections of host by a vector under the assumption that every member of the host population is susceptible for the pathogen. Improved thermal conditions alone do not necessarily imply the development of a malaria epidemic. Other factors like population density or medical care and the presence of vector habitats are of major importance, however, not considered by the calculation engines. The example of malaria is intended to be a model for a range of temperature-dependent vector-borne diseases. Conclusions The impact model on temperature-dependent malaria infections shows exemplarily the information content and functionality of FISKA. Data and functionality of FISKA serve as an expert information system for the detection of risks due to climate change. The results can be published as interactive maps via the FISKA internet interface. From a technical point of view, every impact model based on a calculation engine can be implemented and published via the web interface, provided that the impact models and the resulting risk maps rely on scientific reliable assumptions and are documented comprehensively. Recommendations and perspectives An improvement of FISKA considering the European scale is technically possible. It would require the development of GIS- and model applications on the basis of Europe-wide basic and specific data. For small-scale model runs a dynamic modelling of the water balance including soil hydrology as well as consideration of microclimate effects are required.     

Valuation of human health: An integrated model of willingness to pay for mortality and morbidity risk reductions

This paper develops and applies an integrated model of mortality and morbidity valuation that is consistent with the principles of welfare economics. To obtain the integrated model, the standard one-period expected utility model of one person facing the prospect of either being alive or dead is extended to incorporate (1) a third health state (sick) with a utility level that is intermediate to utility if healthy and utility if dead, (2) a family perspective in which a parent makes choices about risk exposure both for herself and for a child, and (3) a multi-period framework that allows for possible parent/child differences in illness latency. Monetary benefits of health risk reduction obtained from the integrated model are compared with those that would be computed using the standard model. The integrated model then is applied using data obtained from two field studies of skin cancer and leukemia to demonstrate how it can be used to estimate health benefits of reduced illness and death risks.     

Movement patterns of juvenile sand tigers (Carcharias taurus) along the east coast of the USA

To date, movement patterns of juvenile sand tigers (Carcharias taurus) along the east coast of the USA have been loosely defined. Given the magnitude of the purported decline in the sand tiger population in the western North Atlantic (WNA), characterization of the species’ movement patterns throughout this broad area is essential for the effective management and recovery of this population. Using passive acoustic telemetry, pop-up satellite archival transmitting tags, and conventional fishery-dependent tag/recapture data, seasonal movements of juvenile sand tigers (ages 0–2 years; <125 cm fork length) were monitored between Maine and Florida along the US east coast from 2007 to 2013. Collectively, tag data indicated that juvenile sand tigers undergo extensive seasonal coastal migrations moving between summer (June–October) habitat (Maine to Delaware Bay) and winter (December–April) habitat (Cape Hatteras to central Florida) during the spring (April–June) and fall/early winter (October–December). Juvenile sand tigers occurred in a wide range of temperatures (9.8–26.9 °C) throughout the year, but spent the majority of their time in water from 12 to 20 °C. Given the extensive movements and continuous utilization of relatively shallow (<80 m) nearshore waters exhibited by these relatively small individuals throughout their first years of life, it is imperative that precautions be taken to limit negative effects of anthropogenic interactions on this species (i.e., fisheries bycatch, coastal degradation) in an effort to rebuild and sustain the WNA population.     

Modeling and coupling of soil respiration and soil water content in fenced Leymus chinensis steppe,Inner Mongolia

Soil respiration was measured with the enclosed chamber method during 2 years in fenced Leymus chinensis steppe, Inner Mongolia, China. Soil water content at 0–10 cm depth was a major limited factor of soil respiration in semi-arid grassland, accounting for 76.4% of the variation. The temperature-dependent exponential function could only explain 38.7% of the variation in soil respiration. With 246 data over the entire experimental period, multiple linear stepwise regressions of soil respiration rate were analyzed with the influencing factors, including soil water content at 0–10 cm depth, air temperature, air pressure, air humidity, total radiation and their interactions. With soil water content at 0–10 cm depth (W) and air temperature (T_h) as combined factors, the twice linear regression (F = 1.68WT_h − 109.09) was simple and its coefficients were significant, accounting for 83.1% of the variation in soil respiration. Due to the lack of long-term and continuous soil water content, a water sub-model based on precipitation and evapotranspiration was introduced, which could provide better fits with the measured values (R² = 0.813). The magnitudes of soil respiration calculated from the twice linear regression equation and water sub-model were 439.58 and 463.06 g CO₂ m⁻² in 2001 (19 June–23 September) and in 2002 (1 June–24 September), respectively. The mean hourly soil respiration rates were in the range of the previous studies in the adjacent region and the world's major temperate grasslands.     

Brown backstops versus the green paradox

Anticipated climate policies are ineffective when fossil fuel owners respond by shifting supply intertemporally (the green paradox). This mechanism relies crucially on the exhaustibility of fossil fuels. We analyze the effect of anticipated climate policies on emissions in a simple model with two fossil fuels: one scarce and dirty (e.g. oil), the other abundant and dirtier (e.g. coal). We derive conditions for a ‘green orthodox’: anticipated climate policies may reduce current emissions. The model can also be used to analyze spatial carbon leakage. Calibrations suggest that intertemporal carbon leakage (from 0% to 8%) is a relatively minor concern.     

Diel vertical movements of adult male dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) in the western central Atlantic as determined by use of pop-up satellite archival transmitters

The vertical movements of six adult male dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) (95–120 cm estimated fork length), caught using standard sportfishing methods, were investigated using high-rate single-point pop-up satellite archival transmitters from 2005 to 2011 in the western central Atlantic. Data revealed a diel activity pattern within the mixed surface layer with dives below the thermocline suggesting temperature is not a barrier to vertical movements for short periods of time. Dolphinfish were tracked for periods of 4.96–30.24 day (Σ = 83.37 day), reaching depths >200 m, and in temperatures ranging from 16.20 to 30.87 °C. The six tags allowed comprehensive vertical movement analyses by time of day, duration at depth, and based on vertical movement patterns. The longest (>60 min), deepest (>30 m), and most extensive vertical movement patterns occurred during night rather than day, with the most time spent near the surface during the day. Dolphinfish spent 66 % of their time in the surface layer (0–9.9 m) and only one individual spent 8 % of the monitoring period diving >8 °C from the maximum surface temperatures recorded while tracked. Two tags were analyzed based on lunar phase and revealed contrasting relationships between vertical movements during new and full phases. Our results suggest dolphinfish vertically shift between surface and at-depth feeding strategies to exploit aggregating epipelagic and mesopelagic prey items leading to predictable diel vertical movements.     

Assessing the performance of theoretical and empirical tree mortality models using tree-ring series of Norway spruce

Successional dynamics of forests under current and changed climate are often investigated using gap models, a subset of forest succession models that simulate establishment, growth, and mortality of trees. However, the mortality submodels of gap models are largely based on theoretical assumptions, and have not been tested in detail.In the present study, we compared the performance of a range of theoretical mortality functions (TMFs) that are commonly used in gap models with several empirical mortality functions (EMFs) that were derived using logistic regression from growth patterns of tree-ring series as predictor variables. Data from dead and living Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) trees from subalpine forests at three study sites in Switzerland were used to this end.Three of the four EMFs consistently performed better at all three sites, while three of the four TMFs performed worse than the remaining mortality functions. At one site, these three EMFs correctly classified 71–78% of the dead trees (48–72% for the three TMFs) and 73% (49–64%) of the living trees. 44–54% (21–25%) of the dead trees were predicted to die within 15 years prior to death. 0–2% (7–10%) of the dead trees and 5% (19–31%) of the living trees were predicted to die more than 60 years prior to the last measured year.We conclude that, unless the parameters of the TMFs are optimized for individual species, the TMFs are not appropriate to predict the time of tree death, in spite of their widespread use. A substantial change in simulated forest succession is to be expected if the currently implemented TMFs in gap models are replaced by species-specific EMFs.     

Effects of El Niño-Southern oscillation on the population dynamics of the tropical bivalve Donax dentifer from Málaga bay, Colombian Pacific

The population dynamics of a Donax dentifer (Hanley, 1843) population from Málaga bay, Colombia, was studied during two periods (August 1997–July 1998 and November 1999–February 2002) in order to investigate the effects of El Niño (EN) 1997/1998 and La Niña (LN) 1998/2000. The EN–LN cycle was strongly associated to an interannual precipitation and salinity variability in Málaga bay. Additionally, these factors were highly correlated with the reproductive cycle. Results indicate that EN had negative effects on the reproductive cycle, leading to weak, abnormal spawning events. In contrast, good spawning events were recorded during LN and post-LN. Based on these findings, an opportunistic reproductive strategy is proposed for this species. Overall growth performance (P) was higher during LN (P=4.41) than during EN and post-LN (P=4.20, P=4.28, respectively). These results indicate that D. dentifer has a higher overall growth performance compared to several tropical species reported in the literature. Total mortality rate of small individuals was higher during LN whereas that of large individuals was higher during EN. These results are best explained by recruitment variability and spatial differences between recruits and adults. Individual production and productivity were higher during LN, although annual biomass was relatively low. This, together with the results regarding growth and reproduction, suggests that food availability was higher during LN, thus positive effects under LN may be concluded. In contrast, EN seems to have negative effects on growth, reproduction and somatic production for this surf clam.     

El Niño periods increase growth of juvenile white seabass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Atractoscion nobilis</Emphasis>) in the Southern California Bight

Studies of the impact of El Niño periods on marine species have usually focused on negative, highly visible effects, e.g., decreasing growth rates or increasing mortality due to a decline in primary productivity in typically nutrient rich upwelling zones; but positive effects related to elevated water temperature are also known. This study examined how the growth rate of juvenile white seabass, Atractoscion nobilis, responded to changes in ocean temperature in an El Niño period (1997–1998) in the northern portion of the Southern California Bight, USA. Growth rates of juvenile white seabass during their first 4 years of life were estimated as the slopes of linear relationships between body mass and age (from otoliths) of 800 fish collected at 11 stations throughout the bight. Growth rates differed significantly among cohorts hatched in 1996–2001. Specifically, white seabass that hatched in 1996 and 1997 grew significantly faster than those that hatched in 1998, 1999, and 2001. These differences in growth rates of cohorts appeared to be driven by variation in sea-surface temperature (SST). Growth rates averaged over the first three or 4 years of life were significantly positively correlated to average daily SST during the first 1–4 years of life. Increased growth of juvenile white seabass during the warm El Niño period likely provided a number of benefits to this warm-temperate species. This study demonstrated that some species will benefit from these warm-water periods despite reduced system-wide primary production.     

Negotiating housing deal on a polluted day: Consequences and possible explanations

The topic of air pollution has drawn considerable attention globally. In this paper, we examine the immediate effect of air pollution on a substantial decision, that is, a housing purchase. By linking housing purchasing behavior with the air quality in Beijing, we document market participants' behaviors unexplained by rational economic theories. Our main result suggests that the transaction prices on a severely polluted day are 0.65% higher than those of the days without pollution, other things being equal. This translates into approximately 3.51 million yuan daily increase based on the average transaction volume and price on a typical day in Beijing. The heterogeneity analysis further suggests that this effect is mostly driven by non-local and low income buyers. After ruling out rational explanations, we demonstrate that our empirical results are consistent with salience theory under weak assumptions.     

Long-term trends in invertebrate–habitat relationships under protected and fished conditions

Few studies examine the long-term effects of changing predator size and abundance on the habitat associations of resident organisms despite that this knowledge is critical to understand the ecosystem effects of fishing. Marine reserves offer the opportunity to determine ecosystem-level effects of manipulated predator densities, while parallel monitoring of adjacent fished areas allows separating these effects from regional-scale change. Relationships between two measures of benthic habitat structure (reef architecture and topographic complexity) and key invertebrate species were followed over 17 years at fished and protected subtidal rocky reefs associated with two southern Australian marine reserves. Two commercially harvested species, the southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) and blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) were initially weakly associated with habitat structure across all fished and protected sites. The strength of association with habitat for both species increased markedly at protected sites 2 years after marine reserve declaration, and then gradually weakened over subsequent years. The increasing size of rock lobster within reserves apparently reduced their dependency on reef shelters as refuges from predation. Rising predation by fish and rock lobster in the reserves corresponded with weakening invertebrate–habitat relationships for H. rubra and sea urchins (Heliocidaris erythrogramma). These results emphasise that animal–habitat relationships are not necessarily stable through time and highlight the value of marine reserves as reference sites. Our work shows that fishery closures to enhance populations of commercially important and keystone species should be in areas with a range of habitat features to accommodate shifting ecological requirements with ontogenesis.     

Impact of foot-and-mouth disease status on deforestation in Brazilian Amazon and cerrado municipalities between 2000 and 2010

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon released approximately 5.7 billion tons of CO₂ to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010, and 50–80% of this deforestation was for pasture. Most assume that increasing demand for cattle products produced in Brazil caused this deforestation, but the empirical work to-date on cattle documents only correlations between cattle herd size, pasture expansion, cattle prices, and deforestation. This paper uses panel data on deforestation and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) status—an exogenous demand shifter—to estimate whether changes in FMD status caused new deforestation in municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon and cerrado biomes during the 2000–2010 period. Results suggest that, on average, becoming certified as FMD-free caused a temporary spike in deforestation in the 2 years after a municipality became FMD-free, but caused subsequent deforestation to decline relative to infected municipalities during the 2000–2010 period.     

Contrasting demographic histories in a pair of allopatric,sibling species of fish (Arripidae) from environments with contrasting glacial histories

Although Pleistocene glacial cycles are regularly used to explain many aspects of the demographic history of coastal marine species, the present study is one of few to test a priori predictions about these effects. Nucleotide sequence variation in the cytochrome b gene of the mtDNA and allele frequency variation at intron loci in the nDNA were compared between two species of Arripis (Australian Salmon) that are closely related and biologically similar other than for their allopatric distributions. The results suggest that A. truttaceus, which resides to the west of the Bass Strait, exhibits lower levels of genetic diversity and experienced a severe population bottleneck during the LGM followed by an expansion commencing some 17,000 years ago. In contrast, the population of A. trutta, which resides to the east of the Bass Strait, appears to have been largely unaffected by the LGM and has been expanding over the past 100,000 years or more. These results are consistent with a priori predictions, based on paleo-oceanographic data, that the demographic history of A. truttaceus has been more strongly affected by glacial periods by virtue of its distribution to the west of Bass Strait. Data on two other congeners are also presented to provide context for the results for A. trutta and A. truttaceus.     

Ontogenetic shift in foraging habit of ocean sunfish Mola mola from dietary and behavioral studies

The ocean sunfish (Mola mola) is typically considered to feed on gelatinous zooplankton, but reports in the literature describe various benthic organisms being found in their stomachs. This might reflect ontogenetic dietary shift, as little was known about the foraging habit of this species. We examined their foraging habits using dietary analyses in combination with a behavioral study in Iwate, Japan (39°22′N, 141°58′E) from 2009 to 2010. Our stomach content analyses (n = 17, 31–250 cm total length) suggested that small sunfish (<50 cm) feed on benthic crustaceans, but large sunfish (>200 cm) feed on jellyfish. Larger sunfish showed higher values of both carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios. Deployment of accelerometers and animal-borne cameras on small sunfish in July (49–58 cm, n = 5) suggested their possibility of feeding, while they stayed near the seabed. This indicates that small sunfish might feed on benthic preys. Deployment of accelero-magnetometers on large sunfish in July (84–164 cm, n = 4) clarified that the large sunfish in July swam back and forth between the surface and deep water (>100 m). Temporary decelerations, which were considered to be associated with feeding of planktonic prey, were observed in deep water. Whereas deployment of accelero-magnetometers on large sunfish in November (105 cm, n = 3) showed several bursts, they swam within the mixed layer (0–100 m), which might be associated with chasing of rapid prey. These results suggest that ocean sunfish have heterogeneous diets depending on their body size and possibly season.