Trends of PCDD/F and PCB concentrations and depositions in ambient air in Northwestern Germany

Time series of polychlorinated dioxins and furans (PCDD/F) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) in ambient air of a large conurbation in North-Western Germany are presented and analyzed. The trend of PCDD/F concentrations, starting from as early as 1988, shows a pronounced decrease by at least one order of magnitude, demonstrating that the emission reductions were effective. The PCDD/F depositions also have decreased by a factor of 5 since 1992. However, both trends have leveled out since 2005. Time series of PCB concentrations and depositions starting in 1994 show only slight decreases for the concentrations and almost no decrease for the depositions. From the decay rates following first order kinetics, half-lives in the order of 5-15 years for the PCDD/F and 15-31 years for the sum of the six indicator PCB could be calculated, which are much longer than the half-lives estimated from their reactivity towards the OH radical. Apparently, small fresh emissions (PCDD/F), considerable secondary emissions and evaporation from contaminated soils slow down their decay in the atmosphere of big conurbations. Analyzing the decay rates of individual PCB congeners shows that the lower chlorinated and more volatile ones are removed faster than the higher chlorinated congeners, probably via gas phase reactions with the OH radical. It can be concluded from the present study that the input of PCDD/F and PCB into the food chain via the air path will continue for another one or two decades in big conurbations.     

Multimedia emissions inventory of polychlorinated biphenyls for the U.S. Great Lakes states

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were banned in the United States in 1979, and since then a significant decline in their release to the environment has been observed. This decline has now reached a plateau. Several new regulatory programs have been put in place to further reduce PCB emissions/releases. However, our ability to measure the effectiveness of these regulatory/voluntary programs and to support regional fate/transport and source/receptor modeling efforts depend on reliable emission information. In this study, we attempt to improve the emission inventory for PCBs by compiling and analyzing the multimedia total PCB emission/release data reported for the U.S Great Lakes states for each year from 1990 to 2000. Although Toxic Release Inventory (TRI), National Emissions Inventory (NEI), Great Lakes Regional Air Toxic Emissions Inventory (GLRATEI), and Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network (IADN) data formed the basis of estimating air emissions, we used the TRI, National Response Center (NRC), and PCB transformer inventory data to estimate PCB releases to land. We used the Permit Compliance System and NRC data to obtain estimates of PCB discharges to water systems in the Great Lakes states. The Remedial Action Plans for each area of concern were the primary source for estimating PCB loads of dredged sediments. On the basis of the NEI, IADN, and GLRATEI data, the total air emissions within the decade were approximately 126 t. The regionwide discharges to water systems and releases to land in the form of landfills and accidental spills in 1990-2000 were estimated as approximately 170 and 3225 t, respectively. We estimated that approximately 1.3 million t of PCB-contaminated sediment were removed or targeted for removal in five lakes of the U.S. portion of the Great Lakes basin. We stress that these estimates were based on reported amounts and the unreported PCB releases/emissions could result in significantly higher estimates.     

HCB,PCB, PCDD and PCDF emissions from ships

Since current estimates of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), dioxins (PCDD) and furans (PCDF) from ships are based on a relatively limited and old data set, an update of these emission factors has been outlined as a target towards improved Swedish emission inventories. Consequently, a comprehensive study was undertaken focusing on these emissions from three different ships during December 2003 to March 2004. Analyses were performed on 12 exhaust samples, three fuel oil samples and three lubricating oil samples from a representative selection of diesel engine models, fuel types and during different “real-world” operating conditions.The determined emissions corresponded reasonably well with previous measurements. The data suggest however that previous PCDD/PCDF emission factors are somewhat higher than those measured here. As expected the greatest emissions were observed during main engine start-up periods and for engines using heavier fuel oils. Total emissions for 2002, using revised emission factors, have been calculated based on Swedish sold marine fuels and also for geographical areas of national importance. In terms of their toxic equivalence (WHO-TEQ), the PCDD/PCDF emissions from ships using Swedish fuels are small (0.37–0.85 g TEQ) in comparison to recent estimates for the national total (ca. 45 g TEQ). Emissions from other land-based diesel engines (road vehicles, off-road machinery, military vehicles and locomotives) are estimated to contribute a further 0.18–0.42 g TEQ. Similarly, HCB and PCB emissions from these sources are small compared to 1995 national emission inventories.     

Estimation of the contribution of a municipal waste incinerator to the overall emission and human intake of PCBs in Wilrijk, Flanders

The contribution of the emission of PCBs by a municipal waste incinerator in Wilrijk, a relatively industrialized district in the largest city of Flanders, to the total emission to air and to the total human intake was estimated. Therefore it was compared to the emission of PCBs by evaporation from PCB containing applications (transformers, capacitors, paint, ink, etc.) and to the intake of PCBs with food. As there was a lack of PCB data from the incinerator, the PCB emission concentration was estimated using three different approaches. A PCB measurement of the incinerator emission, performed later on, fell within the predicted range of 0.0004-0.005 ng TEQ/Nm3. Emission of PCBs from PCB containing applications and intake from food were deduced from information available on Flemish and European level. The results indicate a PCB contribution from the incinerator to local emissions between 0.3% and 3% of the emission from PCB containing applications and a contribution to human intake less than 6 x 10(-4)% of the intake from food.     

On-road traffic emissions in a megacity

A new annual bottom–up emission inventory of criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases from on-road mobile sources was developed for 2006 for the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires, Argentina, within a four-year regional project aimed at providing tools for chemical weather forecast in South America. Under the scarcity of local emission factors, we collected data from measuring campaigns performed in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia and compiled a data set of regional emission factors representative of Latin American fleets and driving conditions. The estimated emissions were validated with respect to downscaled national estimates and the EDGAR global emission database. Our results highlight the role of older technologies accounting in average for almost 80% of the emissions of all species. The area exhibits higher specific emissions than developed countries, with figures two times higher for criteria pollutants. We analyzed the effect on emissions of replacing gasoline by compressed natural gas, occurring in Argentina since 1995. We identified (i) a relationship between number of vehicles and a compound socioeconomic indicator, and (ii) time-lags in vehicle technologies between developed and developing countries, which can be respectively applied for spatial disaggregation and the development of projections for other Latin American cities. The results may also be employed to complement global emission inventories and by local policy makers as an environmental management tool.     

Black carbon emissions in China

Black carbon (BC) is an important aerosol species because of its global and regional influence on radiative forcing and its local effects on the environment and human health. We have estimated the emissions of BC in China, where roughly one-fourth of global anthropogenic emissions is believed to originate. China's high rates of usage of coal and biofuels are primarily responsible for high BC emissions. This paper pays particular attention to the application of appropriate emission factors for China and the attenuation of these emissions where control devices are used. Nevertheless, because of the high degree of uncertainty associated with BC emission factors, we provide ranges of uncertainty for our emission estimates, which are approximately a factor of eight. In our central case, we calculate that BC emissions in China in 1995 were 1342 Gg, about 83% being generated by the residential combustion of coal and biofuels. We estimate that BC emissions could fall to 1224 Gg by 2020. This 9% decrease in BC emissions can be contrasted with the expected increase of 50% in energy use; the reduction will be obtained because of a transition to more advanced technology, including greater use of coal briquettes in place of raw coal in cities and towns. The increased use of diesel vehicles in the future will result in a greater share of the transport sector in total BC emissions. Spatially, BC emissions are predominantly distributed in an east–west swath across China's heartland, where the rural use of coal and biofuels for cooking and heating is widespread. This is in contrast to the emissions of most other anthropogenically derived air pollutants, which are closely tied to population and industrial centers.     

Effects of improved spatial and temporal modeling of on-road vehicle emissions

Numerous emission and air quality modeling studies have suggested the need to accurately characterize the spatial and temporal variations in on-road vehicle emissions. The purpose of this study was to quantify the impact that using detailed traffic activity data has on emission estimates used to model air quality impacts. The on-road vehicle emissions are estimated by multiplying the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by the fleet-average emission factors determined by road link and hour of day. Changes in the fraction of VMT from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) can have a significant impact on estimated fleet-average emissions because the emission factors for HDDV nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) are much higher than those for light-duty gas vehicles (LDGVs). Through detailed road link-level on-road vehicle emission modeling, this work investigated two scenarios for better characterizing mobile source emissions: (1) improved spatial and temporal variation of vehicle type fractions, and (2) use of Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES2010) instead of MOBILE6 exhaust emission factors. Emissions were estimated for the Detroit and Atlanta metropolitan areas for summer and winter episodes. The VMT mix scenario demonstrated the importance of better characterizing HDDV activity by time of day, day of week, and road type. More HDDV activity occurs on restricted access road types on weekdays and at nonpeak times, compared to light-duty vehicles, resulting in 5-15% higher NOx and PM emission rates during the weekdays and 15-40% lower rates on weekend days. Use of MOVES2010 exhaust emission factors resulted in increases of more than 50% in NOx and PM for both HDDVs and LDGVs, relative to MOBILE6. Because LDGV PM emissions have been shown to increase with lower temperatures, the most dramatic increase from MOBILE6 to MOVES2010 emission rates occurred for PM2.5 from LDGVs that increased 500% during colder wintertime conditions found in Detroit, the northernmost city modeled.     

Expected Decline in Carboxyhemogldbin Levels As Related to Automobile Carbon Monoxide Emission Standards

Carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) levels in blood are principally due to inhalation of carbon monoxide, although a low level (approximately 0.3%) of COHb is endogenous. A carboxyhemoglobin level above 1.5 % in non-smokers indicates exposure to CO in excess of the 10 mg/m³ air quality standard established under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970.

In most major U.S. cities, automobile emissions constitute the principal source of CO; in Chicago, according to EPA estimates,¹ light duty vehicles are responsible for 69.3% of all CO emissions. Thus as new automobiles incorporating emission controls enter the automotive fleet and older, emission-uncontrolled automobiles are phased out, ambient CO concentrations should decline and corresponding reductions in blood carboxyhemoglobin levels of nonsmokers can be expected.     

Improvements to the UK PCDD/F and PCB atmospheric emission inventory following an emissions measurement programme

PCDD/F data are presented from 75 samples of primary emissions sampled between 1995-97 as part of the compliance monitoring survey undertaken by the UK Environment Agency. Municipal solid waste (MSW), chemical waste and clinical waste incinerators, cement kilns, sinter plants and sewage sludge incinerators were the source categories monitored and reported here. Based on this monitoring programme, the previous national UK emission estimates by Eduljee and Dyke (1) of 560-1100 g I-TEQ a(-1) for 1993 have been revised downwards to 220-660 g I-TEQ a(-1). Despite source reduction measures, MSW incinerators remain a significant source of PCDD/Fs to the atmosphere, contributing between 30-50% of the EPCDD/F I-TEQ emission, rather than the approximately 80% they were estimated to contribute in 1993. 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDD/F congener profile data are presented for some of the source categories and generally support the view that differences in the mixtures ('fingerprints') of PCDD/Fs emitted from different sources are observed. New data on the dioxin-like PCB emissions are presented for cement kilns and sinter plants. These show that TEQ-rated PCBs can make an important contribution to the I-TEQ emitted from certain combustion sources. High concentrations of a full range of PCB congeners/homologues have been measured in the atmosphere close to sintering strands, although the precise source of PCBs from this process remains unclear.     

Assessment of vehicular pollution in China

As the motor vehicle population in China continues to increase at an annual rate of approximately 15%, air pollution related to vehicular emissions has become the focus of attention, especially in large cities. There is an urgent need to identify the severity of this pollution in China. Based on an investigation into vehicle service characteristics, this study used a series of driving cycle tests of in-use Chinese motor vehicles for their emission factors in laboratories, which indicated that CO and HC emission factors are 5-10 times higher, and NOx 2-5 times higher, than levels in developed countries. The MOBILE5 model was adapted to the Chinese situation and used to calculate the emission of pollutants from motor vehicles. Results show that vehicle emission is concentrated in major cities, such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Tianjin. Motor vehicle emissions contribute a significant proportion of pollutants in those cities, with contribution rates of CO and NOx greater than 80% and 40%, respectively, in Beijing and Guangzhou. Urban air quality is far worse than the national ambient air quality standard. In conclusion, although China has a relatively small number of motor vehicles, most of them are concentrated within metropolitan areas, and their emissions are closely related to urban air pollution problems in large cities.     

Potential Air Emission Impacts of Cellulosic Ethanol Production at Seven Demonstration Refineries in the United States

Abstract

This paper reports on the estimated potential air emissions, as found in air permits and supporting documentation, for seven of the first group of precommercial or “demonstration” cellulosic ethanol refineries (7CEDF) currently operating or planning to operate in the United States in the near future. These seven refineries are designed to produce from 330,000 to 100 million gal of ethanol per year. The overall average estimated air emission rates for criteria, hazardous, and greenhouse gas pollutants at the 7CEDF are shown here in terms of tons per year and pounds per gallon of ethanol produced. Water use rates estimated for the cellulosic ethanol refineries are also noted. The air emissions are then compared with similar estimates from a U.S. cellulosic ethanol pilot plant, a commercial Canadian cellulosic ethanol refinery, four commercial U.S. corn ethanol refineries, and U.S. petroleum refineries producing gasoline. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) air pollution rules that may apply to cellulosic ethanol refineries are also discussed. Using the lowest estimated emission rates from these cellulosic ethanol demonstration facilities to project air emissions, EPA’s major source thresholds for criteria and hazardous air pollutants might not be exceeded by cellulosic ethanol refineries that produce as high as 25 million gal per year of ethanol (95 ML). Emissions are expected to decrease at cellulosic ethanol refineries as the process matures and becomes more commercially viable.     

Carbonyl emissions from commercial cooking sources in Hong Kong

Cooking fumes are an important carbonyl emission source, especially in a highly urbanized city, such as Hong Kong. Cooking exhaust from 15 commercial kitchens of a variety of cooking styles was sampled and analyzed for a suite of 13 carbonyl compounds. Carbonyl compositions were varied among the different cooking styles. Formaldehyde was generally the most abundant carbonyl, and its contribution to the total carbonyl amount on a molar basis ranged from 12 to 60%. Acrolein was also found to be an abundant carbonyl in the cooking exhaust. The highest contribution by acrolein to the total carbonyls was found to be 30% in the exhaust of a western-style steak restaurant. Long-chain saturated carbonyls, that is, heptanal, octanal, and nonanal, accounted for a significant fraction (> 40%) of the total carbonyls in kitchens that always used heated cooking oils. Two dicarbonyls, glyoxal and methylglyoxal, had a various presence in the cooking emissions, ranging from negligible to 10%. The presence of benzaldehyde and tolualdehyde was mostly negligible in the sampled kitchen exhaust. Annual emission rates of both individual carbonyls and total carbonyls were estimated for various types of commercial kitchens. Local-style fast-food shops contributed the highest total carbonyl emissions per year mainly because of the large number of this kind of restaurant in Hong Kong. The citywide annual emission rates of the three most toxic carbonyls, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and acrolein, were estimated assuming that the limited number of sampled restaurants were representative of the average restaurants. Such estimates of carbonyl emission rates were comparable to the estimated carbonyl emissions from vehicular sources, suggesting the importance of commercial cooking as a source for carbonyls in Hong Kong.     

Sensitivity analysis and evaluation of microFacCO: a microscale motor vehicle emission factor model for CO emissions

This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of a microscale emission factor model (MicroFacCO) for predicting real-time site-specific motor vehicle CO emissions to input variables, as well as a limited field study evaluation of the model. The sensitivity analysis has shown that MicroFacCO emission estimates are very sensitive to vehicle fleet composition, speed, and ambient temperature. For the present U.S. traffic fleet, the CO emission rate (g/mi) is increased by more than 500% at 5 mph in comparison with a speed greater than 40 mph and by approximately 67% at ambient temperatures of 45 degrees F and > or = 95 degrees F in comparison with an ambient temperature of 75 degrees F. The input variable "emission failure standard rate" is more sensitive to estimating emission rates in the 1990s than in the 2000s. The estimation of emission rates is not very sensitive to relative humidity. MicroFacCO can also be applied to examine the contribution of emission rates per vehicle class and model year. The model evaluation is presented for tunnel studies at five locations. In general, this evaluation study found good agreement between the measured and the modeled emissions. These analyses and evaluations have identified the need for additional studies to update the high-speed (>35 mph) air conditioning (A/C) correction factor and to add effects due to road grades. MicroFacCO emission estimates are very sensitive to the emission standard failure rate. Therefore, the model performance can be greatly improved by using a local emission standard failure rate.     

Estimating Emissions from Air Concentration Measurements

A one-year-long experiment in which two different tracers were simultaneously released from two different locations was used to test various hybrid receptor modeling techniques to estimate the tracer emissions using the measured air concentrations and a meteorological model. Air concentrations were measured over an 8-hour averaging time at three sites 14 to 40 km downwind. When the model was used to estimate emissions at only one tracer source, 6 percent of the short-term (8-h) emission estimates were within a factor of 2 of the actual emissions. Temporal averaging of the 8-h data enhanced the precision of the estimate such that after 10 days 42 percent of the estimates were within a factor of 2 and after six months all of them (each source-receptor pair) were within a factor of 2. To test the ability of the model to separate two sources, both tracer sources were combined, and a multiple linear regression technique was used to determine the emissions from each source from a time series of air concentration measurements representing the sum of both tracers. In general, 50 percent of the short-term estimates were within a factor of 10, 25 percent were biased low, and in another 25 percent the regression technique failed. The bias and failures are attributed to low or no correlation between measured air concentrations and model calculated dispersion factors. In the regression method increased temporal averaging did not consistently improve the emission estimate since the ability of the model to distinguish emissions between sources was diminished with increased averaging time. However, including progressively longer time periods (more data) into the regression or spatially averaging the data over all the receptors was found to be the most effective method to improve the estimated emissions. At best about 75 percent of the estimated monthly emission data were within a factor of 10 of the measured values. This suggests that the usefulness of meteorological models and statistical methods to address questions of source attribution requires many data points to reduce the uncertainty in the emission estimates.     

A national inventory of biogenic hydrocarbon emissions

Emission rate vs temperature algorithms for different vegetation types, including deciduous, coniferous and agricultural sources, were used with available biomass and land use data for the U.S. to develop a national emission inventory with county spatial and monthly temporal scales. The estimated total NMHC emission rate from the U.S. is 30.7 Mt annually; more than half of these emissions occur in the summer, and approximately half arise in the SE and SW U.S. Total emission rates of isoprene from deciduous forest and α-pinene from deciduous and coniferous forests are 4.9 and 6.6 Mt annually. Emissions from agricultural crops contribute less than 3 % of the annual total. The average flux of biogenic NMHC in the U.S. is estimated to be 450 μgm⁻²h⁻¹which is 20 times less than reported emissions of anthropogenic NMHC averaged over urban land areas in the U.S. Geochemical NMHC emissions from hydrocarbon rich soils in the U.S. are estimated to be negligible compared to vegetative sources. The uncertainty in the inventory is estimated to be on the order of a factor of three.     

Urban emissions measured with aircraft

Detailed knowledge of the quantity and composition of urban emissions is a prerequisite for successful application of atmospheric models to predict transport and distribution of primary and secondary air pollutants in the troposphere. We investigate the prospects and limitations of aircraft measurements in the determination of emission fluxes from urban areas. Our analysis focuses on data collected in September 1994 in and around Athens, Greece. Generally, emission fluxes from cities can be quantified with aircraft and with the minimum acceptable precision (uncertainty better than a factor of 2) only under very favorable meteorological conditions, namely in a homogeneous flow field in a well-mixed boundary layer. Better accuracy can be achieved only through ensemble averaging of repeated measurements. From our measurements in the Athens area, we deduced relative emission ratios of pollutant gases. With the support of ground-based measurements in a street canyon, the emission ratios NOx/CO, SO2/CO, and volatile organic compounds/CO (34 individual VOCs) could be determined with high precision. These results are very useful in analyzing differences between various existing emission inventories. Our data for VOCs reveal that the non-traffic emissions are of the same magnitude as the emissions originating from traffic.     

Estimates of global anthropogenic methane emissions 1860–1993

This paper provides the first time series estimates of global anthropogenic methane emissions from the mid-19th century to the present. Our purpose is to provide time series estimates of anthropogenic methane emissions for global climate models estimated or calibrated using historical time series data. Previous estimates of methane emissions include “top-down” (deconvolution) estimates of total emissions, estimates of global anthropogenic emissions for the 16th century, and various estimates of anthropogenic and natural emissions in the 1980s and 1990s. This study uses previously published point estimates for the 16th century and the 1980s and early 1990s and a variety of historical time series of proxy variables to estimate a time series of global anthropogenic methane emissions. We find that anthropogenic methane emissions have increased from about 80 million tonnes per annum in 1860 to about 380 million tonnes in 1990. The relative importance of various emission sources changes over time. The rate of increase now may be slowing. A comparison with the estimates generated by Khalil and Rasmussen suggests that natural sources of methane have declined over the period. There are, however, great uncertainties in these estimates which future research may be able to reduce.     

A fuel-based approach for emission factor development for highway paving construction equipment in China

The objective of this paper is to develop and demonstrate a fuel-based approach for emissions factor estimation for highway paving construction equipment in China for better accuracy. A highway construction site in Chengdu was selected for this study with NO emissions being characterized and demonstrated. Four commonly used paving equipment, i.e., three rollers and one paver were selected in this study. A portable emission measurement system (PEMS) was developed and used for emission measurements of selected equipment during real–world highway construction duties. Three duty modes were defined to characterize the NO emissions, i.e., idling, moving, and working. In order to develop a representative emission factor for these highway construction equipment, composite emission factors were estimated using modal emission rates and the corresponding modal durations in the process of typical construction duties. Depending on duty mode and equipment type, NO emission rate ranged from 2.6–63.7mg/s and 6.0–55.6g/kg–fuel with the fuel consumption ranging from 0.31–4.52 g/s correspondingly. The NO composite emission factor was estimated to be 9–41mg/s with the single-drum roller being the highest and double-drum roller being the lowest and 6–30g/kg-fuel with the pneumatic tire roller being the highest while the double-drum roller being the lowest. For the paver, both time-based and fuel consumption-based NO composite emission rates are higher than all of the rollers with 56mg/s and 30g/kg-fuel, respectively. In terms of time–based quantity, the working mode contributes more than the other modes with idling being the least for both emissions and fuel consumption. In contrast, the fuel-based emission rate appears to have less variability in emissions. Thus, in order to estimate emission factors for emission inventory development, the fuel-based emission factor may be selected for better accuracy.

Implications: The fuel-based composite emissions factors will be less variable and more accurate than time-based emission factors. As a consequence, emissions inventory developed using this approach will be more accurate and practical.     

Emissions of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from sludge drying beds to the atmosphere in Chicago

Ambient air PCB concentrations in the Lake Calumet region in Southeast Chicago have been found to be significantly higher than in nearby non-urban areas. This area is highly industrialized and also contains municipal sludge drying facilities and landfills. In an effort to quantify the importance of the sludge drying facilities to the elevated concentrations, upwind/downwind air samples from the Calumet East sludge drying bed were obtained between April and October 2002. For these samples, the downwind minus upwind (downwind-upwind) concentration varied from 0.33 to 1.27ngm(-3) for non-northeast (NE) direction winds suggesting sludge drying is a source of PCBs to the atmosphere. However, the upwind concentrations were higher than the downwind for winds from the NE of the sampling site suggesting more significant source(s), possibly Lake Calumet or the so called "Cluster site" NE of the sludge drying beds. Flux chamber experiments carried out during the sampling period measured average PCB fluxes of 210ngm(-2)h(-1) (range 43-910ngm(-2)h(-1)) which resulted in an overall flux of 0.005kgday (d)(-1) ( approximately 2kgyr(-1)). A developed regression equation between moisture content and sludge concentration estimated higher PCB losses of 0.26kgd(-1) ( approximately 95kgyr(-1)). Although these two approaches yielded different values, they both indicate that the emission from the Calumet East sludge drying beds were of minimal importance when compared to the total estimated amount of 2-70kgd(-1) (700-2100kgyr(-1)) of PCBs entering the Chicago atmosphere.     

Ambient Air Quality and Automotive Emission Control

This paper is concerned with uncertainties involved in projecting ambient air quality. Ambient air quality was projected by assuming a linear dependence on estimated future emissions. Future automotive emissions were estimated by a method recommended by EPA. Projections were made for the locations reported to have the highest ambient air concentrations of each pollutant; Chicago for carbon monoxide and the California South Coast Air Basin for hydrocarbon and oxidant. The sensitivity of the projections to several input parameters was determined.

The uncertainty in projection of air quality due to the use of a maximum, once-per-year concentration is large. For example, the reduction in total CO emissions in Chicago in 1975, necessary to meet the air quality standard, was as high as 68% or as low as 26%, depending on whether the historic high, 8 hr average concentration of 44 ppm or the 1970 maximum of 21 ppm was used. The effects of uncertainties in growth rates and fraction of emissions attributed to the automobile were also sizeable. Differences in automotive growth rate had a large near-term effect on projected concentrations, while differences in nonautomotive growth rate or fraction of emissions attributed to the automobile had a large long-term effect. The effect of 1975 interim automotive emission standards on projected air quality was negligible when compared with projected air quality based on the previous Federal automotive emission standards for 1975.