Evaluation of California's graduated driver licensing program

Problem: California's graduated driver licensing (GDL) program was implemented to reduce the high crash risk of teenage drivers. The program enhancements made in 1998 were evaluated in this study using methods that rule out the noticeable downward trend in California teen's fatal/injury crash rates as a possible explanation for any observed crash reductions that could otherwise be mistaken for program effects. Method: Monthly per capita fatal/injury crash rates for 15-to-17-year-olds and proportional representations of 16–17-year-olds' nighttime and passenger crashes were analyzed using intervention time series analysis. Results: After removing trend, seasonality, and transition effects in the data, no overall reductions in fatal/injury crashes for 15–17-year-olds or 16-year-olds (separately) were found to be associated with the 1998 program enhancements, suggesting no overall exposure reduction effect of the longer instruction permit period nor increased competency associated with the higher number of required practice hours. However, the 12-month nighttime and 6-month passenger restrictions were found to be associated with annual savings of 55 and 816 fatal/injury crashes, respectively. Discussion: Finding no overall impact of the 1998 GDL enhancements was not surprising given findings of an earlier survey suggesting that California teens and parents were largely already practicing program requirements prior to implementation and were not fully complying with the program requirements afterwards. Though the observed crash savings associated with the restrictions were of modest size, this is the first study to evidence a direct positive impact of the passenger restriction component of GDL programs. Larger reductions could be realized if the nighttime restriction started earlier and parents/law enforcement could be motivated to better enforce these restrictions. Impact on Industry: The findings provide support for passenger and nighttime restriction components of GDL programs.     

Effects of the California graduated driver licensing program

PROBLEM: On July 1, 1998, in an effort to ameliorate the problem of high teenage driver crash rates, California implemented a graduated driver licensing system (GDLS). METHOD: Data on injury crashes of 16- and 17-year-old drivers from a pre-GDLS year were compared with data from two post-GDLS years. Per-capita crash rate ratios were adjusted for changes in crash rates of 25- to 34-year-old drivers, who were unaffected by the GDLS. Prevented numbers and 95% confidence intervals were estimated. RESULTS: Fatal or severe injury crash rates were significantly lower during each of the two post-GDLS years (adjusted rate ratios (RR)=0.72 and 0.83, for 2000 vs. 1997 and 2001 vs. 1997, respectively). Significant rate reductions were observed for all crash types, particularly for struck object (RR=0.71 and 0.80, for 2000 vs. 1997 and 2001 vs. 1997, respectively) and non-collision (RR=0.63 and 0.72, for 2000 vs. 1997 and 2001 vs. 1997, respectively). Minor injury crash rates were also lower during post-GDLS years (RR=0.87 and 0.90, for 2000 vs. 1997 and 2001 vs. 1997, respectively). Percent reductions were notably larger during the hours of the late night driving restriction (midnight-5 a.m.) (RR=0.79 and 0.87, for 2000 vs. 1997 and 2001 vs. 1997, respectively). SUMMARY: The implementation of the California GDLS was followed by large reductions in the rate of injury-producing motor-vehicle crashes. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This evaluation supports previous evidence that GDLS is an effective countermeasure to adolescent motor-vehicle crashes and their associated injuries. States with a traditional licensing system may prevent adolescent driver crashes by adopting a GDLS. Future studies should examine factors that influence teenager compliance with GDLS provisions and identify approaches to improving compliance.     

Michigan's graduated driver licensing program: evaluation of the first four years

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate the four-year outcome of Michigan's graduated driver licensing (GDL) program, motor-vehicle crash data for 16-year-old drivers in 1996 (pre-GDL), and 1998-2001 (post-GDL) were analyzed. METHOD: Relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for several crash types were computed, and pre-post-GDL population-based crash rates were compared. Reductions in crash risks among 16-year-olds previously found in 1998 and 1999 were generally maintained in 2000 and 2001. RESULTS: Reductions in crash risk among 16-year-olds from 1996 to 2001 were 29% for all, 44% for fatal, 38% each for nonfatal-injury and fatal-plus-nonfatal-injury, 32% for day, 31% for evening, 59% for night, 32% for single-vehicle, and 28% for multi-vehicle crashes. Even after adjusting for more general population-wide changes among drivers 25 years and older that might have contributed to changes in 16-year-old crash risk, reductions remained impressive (19% for all crashes in 2001). IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: As one approach to reducing teenage motor-vehicle morbidity and mortality, GDL remains promising.     

The evolution and effectiveness of graduated licensing

This paper traces the history of graduated licensing, starting about the point in time when Pat Waller's paper on the genesis of the concept ends, and examines the extent to which graduated licensing has produced reductions in collisions. It concludes with some general observations about future research needs, anticipating several of the papers that follow.The evolution of graduated licensing is chronicled, beginning with the early and largely unsuccessful efforts to introduce it in the United States in the late 1970s, through the pioneering efforts in New Zealand, which resulted in the first truly graduated system in 1987, to Canada where the program was introduced 7 years later, to the United States where it has flourished in more recent years. This 25-year history lesson hopefully creates an appreciation for the somewhat torturous journey that graduated licensing has experienced in achieving acceptance among the public and policy-makers-a journey that is not yet over, as subsequent papers in the symposium will show. The proliferation of graduated licensing in recent years is a mixed blessing-the wider adoption of graduated licensing has been a very positive development, but the programs that have evolved are anything but homogeneous in structure or content. Although this is often necessary for various reasons, it is worrisome that some programs are graduated licensing in name only. This suggests that future efforts to promote graduated licensing must emphasize adherence to the fundamental risk reduction and multistage principles on which the concept is based. The paper also considers the extent to which graduated licensing achieves its objective of reducing collisions among those covered by the program. Understandably, most jurisdictions would not introduce graduated licensing until it was shown to be effective and this, to some extent, slowed the process of implementation. The obvious irony is that it could not be shown to be effective until it was introduced. Fortunately, as history demonstrates, some jurisdictions were prepared to try the system based on its very sound empirical rationale. And, their confidence has been rewarded. A growing body of research, which shows that graduated licensing has been associated with significant and substantial reductions in collisions, is briefly described. The paper concludes with some general observations designed to anticipate the papers that follow. First, it outlines questions that still remain unanswered about graduated licensing-why or how it works, with whom it works, and what features are most effective. Precise and unambiguous answers to these questions are essential for the design of a system that maximizes the potential for reducing collisions, injuries, and deaths. Second, it signals a note of caution on the limits of graduated licensing-it is important to recognize just how effective and beneficial this program is; it is equally important to recognize that it is not the sole panacea for the problem of collisions involving new drivers.     

Enhancing the effectiveness of graduated driver licensing legislation

PROBLEM: Many states have enacted graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems in an effort to reduce the very high crash rates of young beginning drivers. This article addresses how to achieve the maximum benefit from GDL by ensuring compliance with protective restrictions. ENHANCING GDL THROUGH SYSTEM STRUCTURE: The major crash reductions due to GDL systems result from the protective restrictions during the initial two levels, which isolate novice drivers from the highest risk driving situations. Accordingly, GDL systems should include protective restrictions that adequately control the greatest dangers facing young drivers: multiple teen passengers and night driving before midnight. ENCOURAGING COMPLIANCE THROUGH SYSTEM STRUCTURE: Including protective restrictions that are supported by parents and teens will encourage compliance. Furthermore, linking a teen's advancement through GDL to demonstrated responsible driving will likely encourage compliance more than threatening punishment for violations. ENCOURAGING COMPLIANCE THROUGH ENFORCEMENT: Parents are in a prime position to enforce most GDL restrictions, but there is some evidence they do not enforce those restrictions that they consider too extreme. Little is currently known about the involvement of law enforcement in GDL systems, but there is potential for high visibility law enforcement activities to encourage compliance with restrictions. IMPACT ON RESEARCH, PRACTICE, AND POLICY: There is a need for better designed GDL systems in many states; more research is needed to examine compliance with restrictions and to evaluate enforcement efforts by parents and law enforcement.     

Contribution of the components of graduated licensing to crash reductions

PROBLEM: It has been established that graduated licensing systems lead to crash reductions among beginning drivers. What is the contribution of the various components of graduated licensing to these reductions, and how can their effectiveness be increased? METHOD: Literature review and synthesis. RESULTS: Extended learner periods, nighttime restrictions, and passenger restrictions have contributed to crash reductions. Presently there is insufficient evidence concerning the contribution of seat belt or cell phone provisions, or contingent advancement penalties. DISCUSSION: There is more to learn about graduated licensing and its component features. However, there are ways to increase the contribution of all the components through stronger laws and greater compliance. With the right kind of community commitment and focus, substantial further reductions in young driver crashes are achievable. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results can guide states in establishing graduated licensing systems that maximize crash reductions.     

Parental supervision of teenage drivers in a graduated licensing system

OBJECTIVES: Most states now have lengthy learner periods for young, beginning drivers as part of their graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems. Although parents play a vital role during the learner stage of GDL by supervising driving practice, virtually nothing is known about the nature and quality of parental supervision. The objectives of this study were to investigate parents' supervisory behavior and parent-teen relationships during the learner stage of graduated licensing and to evaluate two approaches for assisting parents in supervising their teenager's early driving experience. METHODS: Families of teenagers applying for a learner permit received either a booklet describing highly structured practice sessions for beginning drivers, a series of "tip sheets" offering more generalized guidance, or no special materials. Questionnaires were sent separately to parents and teenagers three to six months after teenagers obtained their permit. RESULTS: Of 1,190 participating families, 653 parents (55%) and 609 teenagers (51%) responded. Both parents and teenagers perceived parents as supportive and helpful during driving sessions. Parents often demonstrated positive behaviors, such as complimenting their teenager and pointing out possible hazards; they also exhibited less desirable behaviors, such as raising their voice, but these were less frequent. A majority of parents (71%) and teenagers (52%) reported that they enjoyed spending this time together. About four months after obtaining a permit, most parents believed their teenager did not yet have enough experience and was not ready to drive unsupervised. Although the reported behaviors are encouraging, within-family agreement was low on most items. Finally, efforts to assist parents proved unsuccessful. Although parents thought the booklet and tip sheets were helpful, most used these materials only in a general way. CONCLUSIONS: The extended learning experience required by GDL programs is a positive experience for many families. However, finding a method for helping parents achieve maximum benefits during this process will be challenging. The results also suggest that current requirements in the learner phase of most state GDL systems (six months; 30-50 hours) may be inadequate to ensure that teenagers obtain a sufficient amount of experience to begin driving safely on their own.     

Improving graduated driver licensing systems: a conceptual approach and its implications

Graduated driver licensing (GDL) is a concept for how to transform non-drivers into reasonably safe drivers while minimizing the risks as they learn. Several state GDL programs can be improved by moving their structures closer to an adequate implementation of that concept. The learner stage of a GDL system needs to be long enough for beginners to obtain a thorough introduction to the vagaries of driving. The second or intermediate stage needs to effectively limit exposure to known high risk conditions as novices adapt to being fully in charge of the vehicle. The benefits of GDL to date are due almost entirely to the risk-reducing conditions it implements. To improve the functioning of GDL will probably require a better understanding of teen driving than we presently have. The likelihood of further gains will be enhanced by efforts to learn more about the actual causes of teen crashes, the nature and type of teen driver exposures, and what parents do with their teens during the supervised driving stage of GDL. Without a better understanding of these, and other, phenomena it will be difficult to further reduce crashes among young beginning drivers, whether through GDL enhancements or with other approaches.     

The effects of graduated driver licensing on hospitalization rates and charges for 16-and 17-year-olds in North Carolina

OBJECTIVE: To mitigate the high risk of motor vehicle crashes for young beginning drivers, over 40 states and the District of Columbia have implemented graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems that gradually and systematically ease teen drivers into higher risk driving conditions. Evaluations of GDL programs using motor vehicle crash data have demonstrated marked declines in crashes. The objective of this study is to examine the association between the implementation of the North Carolina GDL program and the rate of hospitalization, as well as hospital charges, for 16-and 17-year-old drivers. METHODS: Data were obtained from the North Carolina Hospital Discharge Database for the 26 months before and 46 months after the December 1, 1997, implementation of the GDL program. ARIMA interrupted time series analyses were used to model monthly hospitalization rates, controlling for the hospitalization rates of 25-to 54-year-old drivers. ARIMA analyses were also used to determine whether changes occurred in monthly total hospital charges. RESULTS: Among the 568 16-year-old hospitalized drivers, GDL was associated with a 36.5% decline in the hospitalization rate per population and a 31.2% decline in the total monthly driver hospitalization charges. Although a 12% reduction in the rate of hospitalizations was observed among the 615 17-year-old drivers, the analysis lacked sufficient power to be statistically reliable. No consistent change was observed in the 16-year-old driver total monthly hospital charges. CONCLUSIONS: The North Carolina GDL program was associated with a marked decline in the rate of hospitalizations and hospital charges for 16-year-old drivers. Following the implementation of GDL, over $650,000 in hospital charges have been averted each year for 16-year-old drivers. Analyses suggest these reductions were primarily the result of reduced exposure rather than an improvement in teen driving.     

A national evaluation of the nighttime and passenger restriction components of graduated driver licensing

Introduction

The high crash rate of youthful novice drivers has been recognized for half a century. Over the last decade, graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems, which extend the period of supervised driving and limit the novice's exposure to higher-risk conditions (such as nighttime driving), have effectively reduced crash involvements of novice drivers.

Method

This study used data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the implementation dates of GDL laws in a state-by-year panel study to evaluate the effectiveness of two key elements of GDL laws: nighttime restrictions and passenger limitations.

Results

Nighttime restrictions were found to reduce 16- and 17-year-old driver involvements in nighttime fatal crashes by an estimated 10% and 16- and 17-year-old drinking drivers in nighttime fatal crashes by 13%. Passenger restrictions were found to reduce 16- and 17-year-old driver involvements in fatal crashes with teen passengers by an estimated 9%.

Conclusions

These results confirm the effectiveness of these provisions in GDL systems. Impact on Public Health. States without the nighttime or passenger restrictions in their GDL law should strongly consider adopting them.

Impact on Industry

The results of this study indicate that nighttime restrictions and passenger limitations are very important components of any GDL law.     

The impact of the 2007 graduated driver licensing law in Massachusetts on the rate of citations and licensing in teenage drivers

ObjectiveWe recently demonstrated that the 2007 Massachusetts Graduated Driving Licensing (GDL) law decreased the rate of motor vehicle crashes in teenage drivers. To better understand this decrease, we sought to examine the law's impact on the issuance of driving licenses and traffic citations to teenage drivers.MethodsCitation and license data were obtained from the Massachusetts Department of Transportation. Census data were obtained from the Census Data Center. Two study periods were defined: pre-GDL (2002–2006) and post-GDL (2007–2012). Two populations were defined: the study population (aged 16–17) and the control population (aged 25–29). The rates of licenses per population were compared pre- vs. post-GDL for the study group. The numbers of total, state, and local citations per population were compared pre- vs. post-GDL for both populations. A sensitivity analysis was performed for the rates of citations using licenses issued as a denominator.ResultsWhile licenses per population obtained by the study group decreased over the entire period, there was no change in the rate of decrease per year pre- vs. post-GDL (2.0% vs. 1.4%; p = 0.6392). In the study population, total, state, and local citations decreased post-GDL (17.8% vs. 8.1%, p < 0.0001; 3.7% vs. 2.2%, p < 0.0001; 14.1% vs. 5.8%, p < 0.0001, respectively). In the control group, total and state citations did not change (26.7% vs. 23.9%, p = 0.3606; 9.2% vs. 10.2%, p = 0.3404, respectively), and local citations decreased (17.5% vs. 13.7%, p = 0.0389). The rates of decrease per year for total, state, and local citations were significantly greater in the study population compared with control (p < 0.0001, p = 0.0002, p < 0.0001, respectively).ConclusionsThe 2007 GDL law in Massachusetts was associated with fewer traffic citations without a change in the rate of licenses issued to teenagers. These findings suggest that 2007 GDL may be improving driving habits as opposed to motivating teenagers to delay the issuing of licenses.     

The effect of extending graduated driver licensing to older novice drivers in Indiana

Introduction: Graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems have been shown to reduce rates of crashes, injuries, and deaths of young novice drivers. However, approximately one in three new drivers in the United States obtain their first driver’s license at age 18 or older, and thus are exempt from most or all provisions of GDL in most states. Method: In July 2015, the state of Indiana updated its GDL program, extending its restrictions on driving at night and on carrying passengers during the first 6 months of independent driving, previously only applicable to new drivers younger than 18, to all newly-licensed drivers younger than 21 years of age. The current study examined monthly rates of crashes per licensed driver under the affected conditions (driving at night and driving with passengers) among Indiana drivers first licensed at ages 18, 19, and 20 under the updated GDL system compared with drivers licensed at the same ages under the previous GDL system. We used Poisson regression to estimate the association between the GDL system and crash rates, while attempting to control for other factors that might have also influenced crash rates. We used linear regression to estimate the association between the GDL system and the proportion of all crashes that occurred under conditions restricted by the GDL program. Results: Results showed, contrary to expectations, that rates of crashes during restricted nighttime hours and with passengers were higher among drivers licensed under the updated GDL system. This mirrored a statewide increase in crash rates among drivers of all ages over the study period and likely reflected increased overall driving exposure. The proportions of all crashes that were at night or with passengers did not change. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand how older novice drivers respond when GDL systems originally designed for younger novice drivers are applied to them.     

Parent involvement in novice teen driving: rationale, evidence of effects, and potential for enhancing graduated driver licensing effectiveness

Motor-vehicle crash rates are highly elevated immediately after licensure and then decline gradually over a period of years. Young age, risk taking, and inexperience contribute to the problem, but inexperience is particularly important early on. Driving is like other complex, skilled behaviors in which subtle improvements in perception and judgment develop gradually over a period of years. After all, safe driving is more a matter of attention and perception than physical management of the vehicle. Inexperience is particularly linked to driving performance and safety outcomes under certain driving conditions, with driving at night and with teen passengers as the most important cases. Surprisingly, driving outcomes do not appear to be affected by the pre-license training or supervised practice driving. Given the limits of training, safety effects can best be achieved by countermeasures that delay licensure or limit novice teen driving under high risk driving conditions while novices gain experience and develop safety competence. The two complementary approaches of Graduated Driver Licensing policies and parent management have been shown to provide safety effects by limiting the driving conditions of novice teenagers.     

Driver education and graduated licensing in North America: past, present, and future

PROBLEM: A stated objective of driver education in North America is to produce safer drivers, typically defined as drivers less likely to crash. This paper examines the extent to which driver education has achieved this objective independently as well as the extent to which such programs can support the success of graduated licensing in reducing young driver crashes. In so doing, it discusses past experiences, recent developments, and the future direction of driver education and training in relation to graduated driver licensing. METHOD: Literature review and synthesis. RESULTS: Driver education programs have yet to demonstrate consistent attainment of their safety objectives. Moreover, they have not been found to enhance the safety effectiveness of graduated licensing programs--indeed, some practices, for example, "time discounts" for driver education have actually had a detrimental effect on teen safety. DISCUSSION: Despite its disappointing safety record to date, it is important not to abandon driver education. In particular, there are opportunities to improve driver education so that it achieves its safety objectives, and ensure that programs in the future complement graduated driver licensing and contribute to its overall safety benefits. Current and future efforts to improve driver education and better integrate it with graduated licensing programs, however, need to be rigorously evaluated to determine what does and does not work to reduce young driver crashes, and as importantly, to understand why this is the case. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Improved driver education integrated with graduated driver licensing has potential safety benefits.     

National evaluation of the effect of graduated driver licensing laws on teenager fatality and injury crashes

ProblemAutomobile crashes remain a prominent cause of death and injury for teenagers in the United States. While it is generally agreed that graduated drivers licensing (GDL) influences crash rates, it is unclear which components have the strongest effect on any specific types of crashes.MethodWe analyze the relative effect of different stages of GDL on teenage fatal and injury crash risk via a negative binomial generalized linear model with random state effects. Overall, nighttime, and crashes with multiple teenage passengers are considered.ResultsThe strongest effects are seen by 16-year-olds, for which a strict permit stage is associated with a 58% reduction in fatal crash risk over a lenient permit stage. Similar reductions are seen for injury crashes. The intermediate stage, involving nighttime and passenger restrictions, is associated with a 44% reduction in fatalities but has relatively little effect on injury crashes. The strongest effects are generally seen for passenger crashes, followed by nighttime, and then overall crashes.Impact on IndustryThis study identifies stronger relationships between GDL and crash risk than has previously been discovered and captures the relative effects of permit and intermediate licensing restrictions, two high-level components of GDL which differ in intent and implementation.     

The impact of changes to the NSW graduated driver licensing system on subsequent crash and offense experience

Introduction: In mid-2007 the State of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia introduced modifications to the existing graduated driver licensing system, lengthening the mandatory number of supervised hours for learner drivers aged under 25 years from 50 to 120 and extending the minimum learner period from 6 to 12 months. Additional driving restrictions were also introduced for young drivers in the two provisional licensed periods, P1, P2. This paper aims to evaluate this change by comparing the crash and offense experiences of young learner drivers before and after it occurred. Method: From driver licensing files supplied by the NSW transport authority two cohorts of persons obtaining their initial learner's permits in the year prior to the changes and in the subsequent year were constructed with demographic data, dates of transition to the driving phases, dates of crashes, and dates and types of traffic offenses. Both cohorts comprised around 100,000 individuals. Crash rates per 100 years of person-time under observation post P1 with their standard errors were calculated. Using a survival-analytic approach the proportion of crashes of all types were graphed in three month periods post P1. Sexes were treated separately as were initial learner ages of 16, 17, 18–21, and 22–24 years. The distribution of traffic offense types during P1 and P2 phases were also compared. With such large numbers formal statistical testing was avoided. Results: No meaningful differences in the crash or offense experiences of the two cohorts in either sex or at any age were observed. Delaying progress to unsupervised driving has road safety benefits. Conclusions: At least in conditions similar to those in NSW, requiring more than 50 h of supervised driving seems to have few road safety benefits. Practical applications: Licensing authorities should be cautious in extending the mandated number of supervised driving hours beyond 50.