Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting

The global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk and uncertainty in gold price fluctuations, make hedging, future investment and evaluation decisions, depend on forecasting future price trends. The first section of this paper reviews the world gold market and the historical trend of gold prices from January 1968 to December 2008. This is followed by an investigation into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflation over the last 40 years. The second section applies a modified econometric version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model for forecasting natural-resource commodity prices. This method addresses the deficiencies of previous models, such as jumps and dips as parameters and unit root test for long-term trends. The model proposes that historical data of mineral commodities have three terms to demonstrate fluctuation of prices: a long-term trend reversion component, a diffusion component and a jump or dip component. The model calculates each term individually to estimate future prices of mineral commodities. The study validates the model and estimates the gold price for the next 10 years, based on monthly historical data of nominal gold price.     

Long-term perspectives on world metal use—a system-dynamics model

In this paper, a system dynamics model is described, which simulates long-term trends in the production and consumption of metals (i.e. iron/steel and an aggregate of metals of medium abundance) in relation to impacts such as ore-grade decline, capital and energy requirements and waste flows. This metal model can be of assistance in exploring the issue of sustainability of metal resource use. Application of the model to historical trends shows it to be fairly capable of reproducing the long-term trends in the 1900–1990 period, among others on the basis of two intensity of use curves applied to 13 world regions. For future trends, a set of perspective-based long-term scenarios has been constructed that represent the major paradigms in resource use. These scenarios highlight some of the uncertain factors in the relation between economic growth, metal resource exploitation and use, and energy and environmental consequences. They also indicate that apparently similar metal flows in society may be the result of quite different and sometimes contrary assumptions on metal demand, production patterns and resource base characteristics. Such analyses contribute to a more open and transparent discussion on the issue at hand by adding quantitative explications to qualitative views.     

The necessity to elaborate minerals policies exemplified by Romania

Mineral resources represent an integral component within a country’s economy. Despite the fact that the need for raw materials undergoes continuous growth–especially in countries which experience industrial upswing–proper measures to secure the access to domestic mineral resources in the long term have only been applied marginally in a large number of states. This lack of future-oriented legal frameworks–referred to as ‘Minerals Policies’–might lead to a diversity of sectoral problems (eg. dependency on certain raw materials imports). Based on data analysis and subsequent demand forecasting comprehensive national Minerals Policies can be derived in order to anticipate emerging issues and to achieve optimum sustainable management of domestic geological resources. The necessity of such concepts is illustrated by the example of Romania focusing on non-energetic mineral resources.     

Effect of tax laws on mineral exploration in Canada

Changes since 1972 in Canadian federal and provincial tax laws have eliminated many of the prior tax incentives offered to the mining industry. These changes provide an opportunity to study the effect of tax laws on a country's mineral resource development by comparing trends in mineral exploration in various provinces with adjoining regions, and by comparing these results with firm behaviour that would be expected from microeconomic analysis. Mineral producers have sought higher, more stable returns, resulting in shifts of exploration into political regions with more favourable and less changeable tax policies. Future supplies of mineral raw materials from a political region are dependent on current exploration effort, which is in turn influenced by the region's tax laws.     

The impasse over limits to growth: A suggested course of research

An analysis of the long-term demands, supplies and costs for phosphorus is employed as an example of ‘worst case’ research. Worst case research attempts to bound the problems posed in The Limits to Growth relating to running out of minerals and other raw materials by studying the costs of obtaining such materials from some vast source such as common rock. Since the costs of extracting minerals from these near infinite sources are as high as they would go for thousands of years, they represent the upper limit or worst case outlook, especially since the estimated costs are based on current technology. Recycling, conservation and other possibilities are also examined. At least in certain cases it may be possible from such research to make clearer judgements about the questions of exhaustion posed by the ’limits to growth’ literature.     

Copper in India: Present and future outlook

The availability of mineral resources plays an important role in India's national economy. Copper, one of the important non-ferrous metals, has various industrial uses and demand for it is increasing in India where the inventory and production of copper, though not comparable with developed countries, shows an impressive growth rate, particularly during the last decade. With an increasing rate of industrial production envisaged in future plans copper consumption is expected to rise. Logistic curves have been used to study the potential long-term production capability under the dynamic concept of reserves and resources, with curves drawn for various estimates of total available resources. The production figures shown are not final and are subject to change due to a number of factors. This approach merely provides a method for projecting trends in future production.     

A novel wind speed forecasting model for wind farms of Northwest China

Wind resources are becoming increasingly significant due to their clean and renewable characteristics, and the integration of wind power into existing electricity systems is imminent. To maintain a stable power supply system that takes into account the stochastic nature of wind speed, accurate wind speed forecasting is pivotal. However, no single model can be applied to all cases. Recent studies show that wind speed forecasting errors are approximately 25% to 40% in Chinese wind farms. Presently, hybrid wind speed forecasting models are widely used and have been verified to perform better than conventional single forecasting models, not only in short-term wind speed forecasting but also in long-term forecasting. In this paper, a hybrid forecasting model is developed, the Similar Coefficient Sum (SCS) and Hermite Interpolation are exploited to process the original wind speed data, and the SVM model whose parameters are tuned by an artificial intelligence model is built to make forecast. The results of case studies show that the MAPE value of the hybrid model varies from 22.96% to 28.87 %, and the MAE value varies from 0.47 m/s to 1.30 m/s. Generally, Sign test, Wilcoxon’s Signed-Rank test, and Morgan--Granger--Newbold test tell us that the proposed model is different from the compared models.     

An economic model of the US aluminium market

An economic model of the US aluminium industry is constructed and estimated with annual data over the period 1960–1978. The authors' analysis shows that both the short- and long-term price elasticities of demand are relatively low, and that demand is highly dependent on aluminium end-use activity. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken, and the errors of forecast calculated.     

The boom in mineral markets: How long might it last?

The commodity price boom that emerged in 2004 has proved far more persevering than its predecessors of 1950 and 1973. Some analysts have suggested that it may represent the start of a “supercycle” caused by the voracious raw materials demand from China and other emerging economies, with prices remaining high for 20-30 years. We offer an alternative explanation. For a variety of reasons, the establishment of new capacity in minerals and energy to match the accelerated demand trends is more time consuming than commonly assumed, and may take a decade or longer. As soon as the new capacity is in place, however, the boom will be punctuated. Prices may collapse much earlier in the event of a severe recession that cuts the growth in commodity demand.     

The raw material supply of the European Community : The importance of secondary raw materials

The availability and security of raw materials supply have taken on a new political dimension within the last few years. These issues influence the economic and political rank of nations, affecting their independence, their standards of living and the competitive position of their industries. The importance of raw materials supply will continue to grow, for both the developed industrial and the developing countries. The European Community depends on external sources for 50–100% of most of its raw materials. Although the degree of dependence varies considerably from commodity to commodity, sources are not diversified enough to guarantee supply. Yet 1700–2000 million tons of waste are generated annually in the Community, containing substances of potential value—including metals, glass, rubber, textiles, oil, plastics—of which 70– 80% are tipped. This represents a loss of materials as far as they could be reused economically. This article argues that efforts should be made to recover and reuse the maximum possible of these resources to reduce the Community's dependence on, and improve its security of, raw materials supplies, and to lower the balance of payments burden.     

The current status of the US mining industry

The US economy annually needs over 4 billion tons of new mineral supplies. The value of domestically produced energy and processed materials of mineral origin exceeds $175 billion annually, but domestic production of both raw and processed minerals is not keeping pace with demand.     

System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts

Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.     

Glassceramics obtained from industrial waste

Large areas of Latvia are contaminated with industrial waste: metallurgical slag, fly-ash, etching refuse, peat, and coal ash as well as glass waste which often contain dangerous substances. From the environmental point of view this waste should be neutralised. As this waste also contains valuable chemical compounds, it can be considered as a raw material for the generation of new materials. One method of utilisation is to produce recycled materials — street plates, decorative tiles, or floor tiles. Dense sintered glassceramics with a water uptake of 0.34–3.23 wt.%, a final density of 2.93–3.05 g/cm³, and a bending strength of 80–96 MPa have been created from industrial waste. The mast chemically durable glassceramics contained clay additions. Thus, the material containing only waste had a durability (mass loss) of 3.02% in 0.1 N HCl, while the composition containing 30% clay addition had a durability of 0.2% in 0.1 N HCl.     

An eco-environmental water demand based model for optimising water resources using hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithms. Part II. Model application and results

The present optimisation model described in Part I of this work is applied to optimise water resources in the Haihe river basin, an important basin in north China that covers 31.82 million km². Results show that this optimisation model with the HGSAA solution is feasible and effective in the long-term optimisation of water resource use. It is shown that the combined forecasting method can improve the forecast precision. The results obtained indicate that the mean relative errors of BP and polynomial models are 2.3% and 4.9%, respectively, while that of the combined forecasting method is 1.93% in a case study on the Tumahe River for 2010. The combined forecasting method performs better because it incorporates various forecasting methods. The optimisation results show that both domestic and eco-environmental water demands can satisfy the requirements of the forecasting procedure, and the harmonious indices all exceeded 0.7. The Luanhe River is the most water-scarce sub-basin in the Haihe river basin.     

Sugarcane bagasse—The future composite material: A literature review

The natural, bio-degradable features and chemical constituents of the sugarcane bagasse (SCB) have been attracting attention as a highly potential and versatile ingredient in composite materials. Eco-friendly and low cost considerations have set the momentum for material science researchers to identify green materials that give low pollutant indexes. Various components of SCB is shown to possess the ability of being applied as raw material for manufacturing of composite materials at multiple levels of properties and performances. Studies on the impacts, performances and applications of SCB in its original condition; transformed forms; treated with appropriate chemicals and/or processes; in combination with materials of distinct properties and manipulation of manufacturing methodologies have been duly considered. This paper attempts to summarize a review of current literature on the extensive studies that have been undertaken in an attempt to explore plausible applications and potentials of SCB for composite material.     

INTEGRATION OF WATER QUALITY MODELING,REMOTE SENSING,AND GIS1

ABSTRACT: Water quality modeling has been developed for more than three quarters of a century, but is limited to the study of trends instead of making accurate short-term forecasts. A major barrier to water quality forecasting is the lack of an efficient system for water quality monitoring. Traditional water quality sampling is time-consuming, expensive, and can only be taken for small sizes. Remote sensing provides a new technique to monitor water quality repetitively for a large area. The objective of this research is to use remotely sensed data in a water quality model - QUAL2E - in a case study of the Te-Chi Reservoir in Taiwan. The water quality variables developed from the simulations are displayed in map form. The developed forecasting system is designed to predict water quality variables using remote sensing data as an input to initialize and update water quality conditions.     

Growth Management in the Vancouver Region

The Vancouver Region is widely recognised as one North American jurisdiction where strong growth management plans and policies have been put in place in order to control urban sprawl. While many authors have lauded the region for its good planning intentions, there has been little in the way of assessment of actual performance. This paper attempts to identify some quantitative growth management goals that have been (officially and unofficially) espoused by planning authorities in the region, and to measure these against actual trends. The results are mixed: on the one hand, some key growth management goals adopted by the region are not ambitious compared with existing trends and even these goals are not being met. For instance, the supposedly compact scenario adopted by the region deviates hardly at all from existing growth trends, which regional planners had clearly identified as untenable and requiring drastic change. On the other hand, the region's goal of preserving extensive green areas has been achieved without being watered down during goal formulation or implementation. Whereas these findings may appear contradictory, they are not: conservation in the region has not compromised the potential for growth in the region—at least for the time being. The real test of regional growth management efforts will come in the near future when further expansion meets the 'green wall' on the periphery and NIMBY resistance against densification within existing urban areas. The study suggests that the current structure of regional planning, relying on a partnership between municipal and regional governments, has served the region fairly well in building support for the need for growth management and in elaborating growth management vision. However, there is serious doubt about the ability of this system to set ambitious growth management objectives and to see through the implementation of those objectives in the face of social forces attempting to preserve business-as-usual trends in the region.     

A methodological assessment of raw materials in the UK

Many projects have attempted to model the consumption and recycling patterns of important raw materials, but without assessing the significance of that raw material to the UK. This article methodically assesses all the factors which influence the importance of each raw material, and ranks them in descending order of importance. Sensitivity analyses confirm that the resultant ranking is largely independent of factors used. Copper, oil, iron and steel, and aluminium, are the four most significant materials. This work provided the justification for a detailed examination of the copper industry and, in particular, the significance of recycling.     

APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL TOWARD RUNOFF FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: A reliable forecasting model is essential in real‐time flood forecasting for reducing natural damage. Efforts to develop a real‐time forecasting model over the past two decades have been numerous. This work applies the Grey model to forecast rainfall and runoff owing to the model's relative ability to predict the future using a small amount of historical data. Such a model significantly differs from the stochastic and deterministic models developed previously. Ten historical storm events from two catchment areas in northern Taiwan are selected to calibrate and verify the model. Results in this study demonstrate that the proposed models can reasonably forecast runoff one to four hours ahead, if the Grey error prediction method is further used to update the output of the model.