基于LCA的北京市公交车节能及温室气体减排潜力分析

新能源公交车是未来城市公交行业节能及温室气体减排的重点发展方向.新能源公交车在行驶阶段具有良好的节能及温室气体减排效果,而汽车制造、能源生产等相关生命周期阶段的能耗及温室气体排放常被忽视,且目前新能源公交车的乘客运载功能相对较弱,可能对节能及温室气体减排的潜力造成较为显著的影响.因此,本文基于北京市公交车的运营特征,采用生命周期评价(LCA)方法,选择客运周转量作为功能单位,核算了天然气公交车、混合动力公交车和纯电动公交车等新能源公交车相对于柴油公交车的节能及温室气体减排效益.结果表明:发展新能源公交车对促进北京市公交行业及城市节能低碳发展具有积极的作用,但相对于基于运营里程的核算结果,本研究新能源公交车节能及温室气体减排潜力均较低,主要原因是新能源公交车的实际载客量相对较低;混合动力公交车和纯电动公交车在空调开启时的节能潜力与温室气体减排潜力均远低于天然气公交车;通过发展情景分析,建议北京市现阶段应优先发展天然气公交车,适当发展纯电动公交车和混合动力公交车,以减少北京市公交车的总体能耗,同时降低温室气体排放强度.     

Reducing black carbon emissions from diesel vehicles in Russia: An assessment and policy recommendations

The paper assesses options and challenges of reducing black carbon emissions from diesel vehicles in Russia. Black carbon is a product of incomplete diesel combustion and is a component of fine particulate matter. Particulate matter emissions have adverse health impacts, causing cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer; black carbon is also a large climate forcer. Black carbon emissions from Russian diesel sources affect not only the Russian territory but also contribute to overall pollution. This paper analyzes current ecological standards for vehicles and fuel, evaluates policies for emission reductions from existing diesel vehicle fleet, and assesses Russia's attempts to encourage the use of natural gas as a vehicle fuel. Based on best practices of black carbon emission reductions, this paper provides a number of policy recommendations for Russia.     

北京市压缩天然气公交车的环境效果分析

经过对北京市2007年公交车队的详细技术构成与实际运营情况的调研,发现北京市公交车队的主力车型为国三和国四车辆,应用修正的COPERTIV模型计算出北京市各技术水平的汽油、柴油和压缩天然气(CNG)公交车的排放因子.2007年北京市国三CNG公交车PM2.5和NOx单车排放因子分别比国三柴油车削减了97%和30%,而公交车队中排放控制最为严格的EEV天然气公交车的PM2.5和NOx单车排放因子分别比国四柴油公交车削减了93%和69%.但由于CNG公交车的CH4排放水平较高,导致CNG公交车的总碳氢化合物(THC)单车排放因子显著高于相近控制水平的柴油公交车.在单车排放水平的基础上建立了北京市公交车排放清单,2007年北京市公交车排放的CO、NMHC、THC、NOx和PM2.5分别为9051t、955t、1222t、8553t和161t.与没有CNG公交车的对照情景进行比较,在使用了CNG公交车后,2007年北京市公交车CO、NMHC、NOx和PM2.5排放总量分别削减了293t、62t、775t和33t,削减比例分别为3.1%、6.1%、8.3%和17.2%.2007年北京市通过在公交车队中使用CNG车辆共减少了柴油消耗量约5.0×104t,相当于北京市各行业柴油总消耗量的2.6%.2007年北京市公交车尾气排放的温室气体的CO2当量为8.3×105t,比不使用CNG车辆的情景略微增加了2.4%.     

Carbonyl emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicle exhaust in China and the contribution to ozone formation potential

Fifteen heavy-duty diesel vehicles were tested on chassis dynamometer by using typical heavy duty driving cycle and fuel economy cycle. The air from the exhaust was sampled by 2,4- dinitrophenyhydrazine cartridge and 23 carbonyl compounds were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography. The average emission factor of carbonyls was 97.2 mg/km, higher than that of light-duty diesel vehicles and gasoline-powered vehicles. Formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acetone and propionaidehyde were the species with the highest emission factors. Main influencing factors for carbonyl emissions were vehicle type, average speed and regulated emission standard, and the impact of vehicle loading was not evident in this study. National emission of carbonyls from diesel vehicles exhaust was calculated for China, 2011, based on both vehicle miles traveled and fuel consumption. Carbonyl emission of diesel vehicle was estimated to be 45.8 Gg, and was comparable to gasolinepowered vehicles （58.4 Gg）. The emissions of formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and acetone were 12.6, 6.9, 3.8 Gg, respectively. The ozone formation potential of carbonyls from diesel vehicles exhaust was 537 mg O3/km, higher than 497 mg O3/km of none-methane hydrocarbons emitted from diesel vehicles.     

我国城市天然气替代燃煤集中供暖的大气污染减排效果

基于国家发改委“天然气利用政策”中的天然气利用领域,利用等热值替代方法计算不同领域天然气替代后的污染物减排效果,从大气污染减排角度对天然气各个利用领域的优先次序重新排列,并对2010年全国15个重点供暖城市天然气替代燃煤集中供暖的大气污染物减排量进行测算.结论表明:天然气集中供暖的大气污染减排效果排序处于前列,城市利用天然气替代燃煤集中供暖对CO2、颗粒物(PM)、SO2和NOx都有较明显的减排效果.2010年我国15个重点城市如果采用天然气集中供暖,共可减少CO2排放量2190.71万t、颗粒物(PM)排放量734.24万t、SO2排放量40.21万t、NOx排放量22.56万t.     

郑州市公交车队电动化减污降碳环境效益

公交车队电动化是道路交通部门实现减污降碳的重要手段,评估当前公交车队电动化减排成效,对推进大中型城市公交全面电动化具有重要参考意义.基于燃料生命周期法分析了郑州市公交车队电动化前后CO₂和污染物排放特征,并评估了不同电动化情景下的车队排放.结果表明,本轮电动化使公交车队燃料生命周期内CO₂和PM_2.5排放量分别增长32.6%和42.6%,CO、NO_x和VOC排放量下降了28%,34%和25%.优化发电结构对于电动化过程中的CO₂及PM_2.5减排尤为重要,在全面电动化和发电结构优化的最佳情景下,CO₂、CO、NO_x、VOC和PM_2.5减排可达38.7%、80.1%、84.4%、92.2%、30.2%.在全面电动化进程中,应优先对中长里程线路车辆进行电动化替换,此外,插电混动天然气车型的纯电动化替换对减排利弊兼有,同步推进车队替换和电力结构调整进程才能实现减污降碳协同增效.     

推广新能源汽车碳减排和大气污染控制的协同效益研究——以上海市为例

随着我国机动车数量的持续增长,交通运输行业已经成为仅次于工业部门的第二大能源消费部门,也是温室气体排放和空气污染物的主要贡献部门.为了支持低碳发展,自2009年起,中国便开始使用新能源汽车取代传统燃油汽车.通过上海市2016年纯电动和插电式混合动力的私家车、出租车和公交车的行驶情况、能源消耗和排放因子等数据,对新能源汽车运行过程以及所需电能生产过程中产生的大气污染物和CO₂的排放量进行了测算,利用协同控制坐标系评价和污染物减排量交叉弹性分析方法探讨了新能源汽车的协同减排能力与效果.基于协同效益潜力分析结果,对推广3类新能源汽车的协同效益进行了排序,结果表明纯电动公交车具有最佳的碳减排和大气污染控制协同效益,纯电动以及插电式混合动力私家车和出租车对CO、NO_x、NMHC、PM₁₀都具有协同效益,而插电式混合动力公交车不具备协同效益.     

重型柴油公交车实际道路颗粒物排放的理化特征

为研究重型柴油公交车实际道路颗粒物排放的理化特征,采用车载排放测试方法,选取了2辆国Ⅲ和4辆国Ⅳ柴油公交车,对气态污染物和颗粒物排放因子、粒径分布及颗粒物中的组分(包括碳组分、离子、元素和有机组分)排放特征进行了实测分析.结果表明:测试车辆的颗粒数量主要集中在100 nm以下粒径段,颗粒质量排放总体呈倒U型分布,粒径峰值位于300 nm左右.OC和EC分别占尾气颗粒物总质量的36.10%±8.94%和27.97%±10.00%,离子和元素组分分别占7.75%±1.01%和22.71%±3.09%.柴油质量对柴油车尾气颗粒物成分具有较大影响,燃用国Ⅲ柴油的车辆尾气中富含S、Ca、Mg、Na等元素组分,其主要来自燃油中的硫分和杂质.在可检出的弱极性可溶有机物中,正构烷烃和脂肪酸的含量较为丰富,分别占颗粒物总质量的1.95%和5.13%,此外还有一定量的藿烷和PAHs(多环芳烃).其中,正构烷烃组分主要分布于C19～C29,正构烷酸主要集中在C12、C14、C16和C18等偶数碳组分.国Ⅲ和国Ⅳ柴油公交车的PAHs排放因子分别为198.2、62.5 μg/km,以3环和4环PAHs为主,菲、荧蒽、芘、惹烯、苯并荧蒽、、苯并[123-cd]芘和苯并苝是较为主要的PAHs组分.需要指出的是,由于采用定比例稀释方法,颗粒物中组分的测试结果可能与其实际排放存在一定偏差.      

Urban air pollution in Brazil: Acetaldehyde and other carbonyls

We have measured ambient levels of carbonyls in three major urban areas of Brazil: Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Salvador. The most abundant carbonyls were acetaldehyde (up to 63 μg m⁻³, or 35 ppb) followed by formaldehyde (up to 42 μg m⁻³, or 34 ppb), and acetone (up to 20 ppb). Levels of 10 other aliphatic and aromatic carbonyls were in the range 0–5 ppb. Total carbonyl concentrations were in the range 11–75 ppb. Indoor levels were also measured at several locations in Salvador. High levels of acetaldehyde, 430 μg m⁻³ or 240 ppb, were measured in a highway tunnel.Using carbonyl/CO concentration ratios, mobile source emissions of carbonyls are estimated for the Sao Paulo area. Ambient levels of acetaldehyde and acetaldehyde/formaldehyde concentration ratios in Brazil are compared to those for other urban areas, and are briefly discussed in relation with the large scale use of ethanol as a vehicle fuel.     

汽油车技术发展对尾气排放影响研究进展

近年来,汽油车尾气排放已成为城市大气污染的主要来源之一.为减少油耗、温室气体和大气污染物的排放,汽油直喷技术(GDI)、醇类燃料替代以及混合动力系统等新兴技术被应用到汽车产品中,该研究对GDI发动机汽车、醇类燃料车和混合动力车的颗粒物(PM)、氮氧化物(NO_x)、总碳氢化合物(THC)的排放研究进行梳理和总结,综合评估先进动力技术和醇类燃料的环境影响.结果表明:GDI汽油车的PM排放因子为进气道喷射(PFI)汽油车的1.2~5倍,加装汽油颗粒物捕集器(GPF)后GDI汽油车的PM排放大幅下降,同时具备催化能力的GPF可减少NO_x和THC排放.与汽油车相比,乙醇燃料车PM排放量减少了35%~56%,尾气THC排放减少了10%~44%,但挥发性有机物(VOCs)蒸发排放增加了20%~41%,其主要来自于日呼吸损失.各类型车辆的NO_x排放差异较小,比较结果存在一定的不确定性.混合动力车相比传统内燃机汽车污染物减排优势明显,可积极推广其在公共交通和私家车队中的应用.建议今后研究应着重关注以下几个方面:①GDI和混合动力车在实际条件下排放污染物的环境影响;②醇类燃料车VOCs蒸发排放控制技术及相关法规标准的完善;③新兴技术汽油车排放污染物的生成机理及其影响因素.      

On-road emissions of CO, CO2 and NOX from four wheeler and emission estimates for Delhi

This study presents the emission factor of gaseous pollutants(CO, CO_2, and NO X) from on-road tailpipe measurement of 14 passenger cars of different types of fuel and vintage. The trolley equipped with stainless steel duct, vane probe velocity meter, flue gas analyzer, Nondispersive infra red(NDIR) CO_2 analyzer, temperature, and relative humidity(RH) sensors was connected to the vehicle using a towing system. Lower CO and higher NO X emissions were observed from new diesel cars(post 2010) compared to old cars(post 2005), which implied that new technological advancement in diesel fueled passenger cars to reduce CO emission is a successful venture,however, the use of turbo charger in diesel cars to achieve high temperature combustion might have resulted in increased NO X emissions. Based on the measured emission factors(g/kg), and fuel consumption(kg), the average and 95% confidence interval(CI) bound estimates of CO, CO_2,and NO X from four wheeler(4W) in Delhi for the year 2012 were 15.7(1.4–37.1), 6234(386–12,252),and 30.4(0.0–103) Gg/year, respectively. The contribution of diesel, gasoline and compressed natural gas(CNG) to total CO, CO_2 and NO X emissions were 7:84:9, 50:48:2 and 58:41:1respectively. The present work indicated that the age and the maintenance of vehicle both are important factors in emission assessment therefore, more systematic repetitive measurements covering wide range of vehicles of different age groups, engine capacity, and maintenance level is needed for refining the emission factors with CI.     

杭州市机动车污染物排放清单的建立

基于调研的基础数据,运用修正后的IVE排放模型及GIS系统建立了杭州市2010年1km×1km的高时空分辨率的机动车排放清单.结果表明,2010年杭州市机动车污染物CO、HC、NOx、PM的年排放量分别为44.06,2.31,4.43,0.65万t,主要来自线源道路的排放.各车型污染物分担率各不相同,汽油乘用车和公交车排放CO和HC最大,柴油重型货车和公交车是NOx和PM排放的主要来源,两种燃油下的机动车排放差异十分明显.机动车污染排放与路网密集程度及道路长度密切相关,因此西湖区和江干区排放总量远远高出其他区域.机动车各污染物排放强度空间分布均呈现由城市中心向城市边缘的递减趋势,各污染物中心城区排放量占总排量的70%以上.机动车污染物排放日变化十分明显,与人群出行规律有极大的相关性.     

中国平板玻璃行业大气污染物排放特征研究

基于中国2013~2015年27个省（区、市）平板玻璃企业的逐生产线基础信息、活动水平及污染物控制技术等数据,建立了平板玻璃主要大气污染物SO₂、NO_x排放量计算方法和排放清单,使用蒙特卡洛法进行了不确定性分析.统计了平板玻璃产量、燃料使用量、燃料结构以及污染物控制技术,分析了排放特征与空间差异.结果表明：中国平板玻璃行业以天然气/煤气为主要燃料,平均单位产品能源消耗量为13.2kg标煤/重量箱,山西、内蒙古等省份较高;37%和42%的生产线分别安装了脱硫、脱硝设施,技术以烟气循环流化床、双碱法、SCR为主;SO₂排放量先升后降,2014年达到16.84万t,2015年下降至13.67万t,湖北、浙江、河北、广东排放量较大;NO_x排放量持续下降,从2013年的37.47万t下降至2015年的28.38万t,河北、湖北、山东、广东排放量较大;SO₂排放强度西南部地区高于其他地区,且有上升趋势,其他地区SO₂排放强度整体下降;NO_x排放强度中西部地区较高.应加强高能耗、高排放以及高强度地区的污染控制力度.     

氢燃料电池汽车动力系统生命周期评价及关键参数对比

发展氢燃料电池汽车被认为是解决能源安全和环境污染问题的理想解决方案之一,为量化探究氢燃料电池汽车动力系统的化石能源消耗和排放情况,运用GaBi软件建模,以新能源汽车相关技术路线为参考,构建我国氢燃料电池汽车动力系统的数据清单并对其全生命周期化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值情况进行定量评价计算和预测分析,对不同类型的双极板、不同能量控制策略和不同制氢方式对环境的影响分别进行了对比研究,并对关键数据进行了不确定分析.结果表明,预计到2030年我国每台氢燃料电池汽车动力系统生命周期的化石能源消耗量（ADP_f）、全球变暖潜值（GWP,以CO₂ eq计）和酸化潜值（AP,以SO₂ eq计）分别为1.35×10⁵ MJ、9108 kg和15.79 kg.动力系统生产制造阶段的化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值均高于使用阶段,主要原因是燃料电池堆栈和储氢罐的制造过程.金属双极板、石墨复合双极板和石墨双极板的制造工艺中石墨复合双极板的综合环境效益最好.能量控制策略的优化会使得氢能消耗降低,当氢能消耗降低22.8%时,动力系统的生命周期化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值分别降低10.4%和8.3%.相比于甲烷蒸气重整制氢,基于混合电网电解水制氢的动力系统生命周期全球变暖潜值高出53.7%[KG-*6],而基于水电电解水制氢降低39.6%.降低动力系统生命周期化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值的措施包括优化能量控制策略降低氢能消耗、规模化发展可再生能源发电电解水制氢产业和聚焦突破燃料电池堆栈关键技术实现性能提升.     

唐山市机动车排放清单与减排经济效益研究

基于唐山市机动车定期环保检测数据获取不同类型车辆的本地年均行驶里程,建立城区内典型车辆的"里程-注册年"特征曲线.采用车载排放测试法获取唐山市典型国Ⅵ阶段轻重型汽车实际道路排放因子.利用COPERT模型进行机动车排放因子本地化修正,建立涵盖不同排放阶段和燃料动力类型的唐山市机动车排放清单,结合唐山市路网信息,建立基于ArcGIS的3km×3km高时空分辨率网格化排放清单,并分析了国三及以下中重型柴油车（简称高排放车）不同淘汰与DPF排放治理比例情景下机动车减排与投入成本效益.研究表明,2020年机动车CO,HC,NOx,PM_2.5,PM₁₀年排放量分别为92403.51,10034.53,70568.35,2036.51,2160.65t,其中：NO_x,PM_2.5和PM₁₀排放主要来源于柴油车,分担率分别为92%,89%和89%;CO和HC排放主要来自汽油车,分担率分别为71%和73%.唐山市实施二环内国Ⅳ及以下柴油货车限行区政策后,二环内CO和HC年排放量削减率分别为22.41%和21.68%;而NO_x,PM₁₀和PM_2.5污染物排放强度显著降低,年排放量削减率分别为78.60%,84.85%和84.79%.在高排放车淘汰与治理情景下,随着高排放车淘汰比例的增长,投入成本和NO_x年均减排量呈线性上升趋势,且NOx减排效果更加显著,而PM减排辆略呈下降趋势.高排放车淘汰率每增长10%,NO_x年均减排量增加892.41t,PM年均减排量减少7.56t,年投入成本增加1.13亿元.     

Prospects for carbon-neutral housing: the influence of greater wood use on the carbon footprint of a single-family residence

This paper examines the energy and carbon balance of two residential house alternatives; a typical wood frame home using more conventional materials (brick cladding, vinyl windows, asphalt shingles, and fibreglass insulation) and a similar wood frame house that also maximizes wood use throughout (cedar shingles and siding, wood windows, and cellulose insulation) in place of the more typical materials used – a wood-intensive house. Carbon emission and fossil fuel consumption balances were established for the two homes based on the cumulative total of three subsystems: (1) forest harvesting and regeneration; (2) cradle-to-gate product manufacturing, construction, and replacement effects over a 100-year service life; and (3) end-of-life effects – landfilling with methane capture and combustion or recovery of biomass for energy production.The net carbon balance of the wood-intensive house showed a complete offset of the manufacturing emissions by the credit given to the system for forest re-growth. Including landfill methane emissions, the wood-intensive life cycle yielded 20 tons of CO₂e emissions compared to 72 tons for the typical house. The wood-intensive home's life cycle also consumed only 45% of the fossil fuels used in the typical house.Diverting wood materials from the landfill at the end of life improved the life cycle balances of both the typical and wood-intensive houses. The carbon balance of the wood-intensive house was 5.2 tons of CO₂e permanently removed from the atmosphere (a net carbon sink) as compared to 63.4 of total CO₂e emissions for the typical house. Substitution of wood fuel for natural gas and coal in electricity production led to a net energy balance of the wood-intensive house that was nearly neutral, 87.1 GJ energy use, 88% lower than the scenario in which the materials were landfilled.Allocating biomass generation and carbon sequestration in the forest on an economic basis as opposed to a mass basis significantly improves the life cycle balances of both houses. Employing an economic allocation method to the forest leads to 3–5 times greater carbon sequestration and fossil fuel substitution attributable to the house, which is doubled in forestry regimes that remove stumps and slash as fuel. Thus, wood use has the potential to create a significantly negative carbon footprint for a house up to the point of occupancy and even offset a portion of heating and cooling energy use and carbon emissions; the wood-intensive house is energy and carbon neutral for 34–68 years in Ottawa and has the potential to be a net carbon sink and energy producer in a more temperate climate like San Francisco.     

我国重型柴油货车黑碳排放影响因素分析

柴油车的黑碳排放对空气质量和气候变化有重要影响,但我国柴油车黑碳排放清单编制仍有较大局限性. 为进一步提高柴油车黑碳排放清单编制精度,采用整车转毂台架和热光折射的方法研究不同排放标准、行驶工况和负载状况对重型柴油货车黑碳排放的影响. 结果表明:我国排放标准升级对重型柴油货车的黑碳排放有重要影响,从国Ⅰ、国Ⅱ排放标准升级到国Ⅲ、国Ⅳ和国Ⅴ排放标准,黑碳在颗粒物中的占比由41%左右逐步提至72%左右. 行驶工况对重型柴油货车的黑碳排放也有一定影响,车辆在C-WTVC (中国重型商用车燃料消耗量测试工况)下的黑碳排放占比较VECC (重型车典型道路行驶工况)下高5%~10%. 与半载状态相比,重型柴油货车在满载状态下黑碳排放占比更高,国Ⅲ、国Ⅳ重型柴油货车满载状态下黑碳排放占比较半载状态高7%~8%,国Ⅱ重型柴油货车满载状态下黑碳排放占比较半载状态高15%左右. 研究显示,柴油货车黑碳排放清单编制要综合考虑排放标准、驾驶特征、负荷状况等对黑碳排放的影响,不宜使用固定系数利用颗粒物排放因子外推黑碳排放因子.      

DOC+CDPF对生物柴油燃烧颗粒排放特性的影响

以一台满足国五排放法规的车用柴油机为样机,研究加装氧化催化转化器DOC与催化型颗粒捕集器CDPF(DOC+CDPF后处理装置)前后,柴油机燃用B20燃料(燃料含20%体积掺混比的生物柴油)的颗粒排放特性.结果表明,在未加装该后处理装置时,该机排气颗粒数量浓度的粒径分布呈双峰形态,B20燃料的排气颗粒数量浓度的峰值粒径在10nm和50nm附近,纯柴油的排气颗粒数量浓度的峰值粒径在50nm和200nm附近.在颗粒粒径小于120nm的区域,该机燃用B20燃料的排气颗粒数量浓度大于纯柴油.加装该后处理装置后,该机排气颗粒数量浓度的粒径分布呈多峰形态,峰值粒径在10nm、20nm和60nm附近.加装DOC+CDPF后,不论是柴油还是B20燃料,与原机相比,柴油机排气颗粒总数量下降明显,其中60~200nm粒径范围的颗粒数量浓度降幅更为显著.在相同工况下,DOC+CDPF对柴油机燃用B20燃料的颗粒总数量净化效率高于纯柴油.     

Vehicle emissions of primary air pollutants from 2009 to 2019 and projection for the 14th Five-Year Plan period in Beijing, China

Over the past decade, the emission standards and fuel standards in Beijing have been upgraded twice, and the vehicle structure has been improved by accelerating the elimination of 2.95 million old vehicles. Through the formulation and implementation of these policies, the emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in 2019 were 147.9, 25.3, 43.4, and 0.91 kton in Beijing, respectively. The emission factor method was adopted to better understand the emissions characteristics of primary air pollutants from combustion engine vehicles and to improve pollution control. In combination with the air quality improvement goals and the status of social and economic development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in Beijing, different vehicle pollution control scenarios were established, and emissions reductions were projected. The results show that the emissions of four air pollutants (CO, VOCs, NO_x, and PM_2.5) from vehicles in Beijing decreased by an average of 68% in 2019, compared to their levels in 2009. The contribution of NO_x emissions from diesel vehicles increased from 35% in 2009 to 56% in 2019, which indicated that clean and energy-saving diesel vehicle fleets should be further improved. Electric vehicle adoption could be an important measure to reduce pollutant emissions. With the further upgrading of vehicle structure and the adoption of electric vehicles, it is expected that the total emissions of the four vehicle pollutants can be reduced by 20%-41% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period.     

城市交通大气污染物与温室气体协同控制效应评价

针对乌鲁木齐城市交通领域12项减排措施开展协同控制效应评估,构建空气污染物与温室气体协同减排当量(APeq)指标进行减排效果归一化,识别措施是否具有协同减排效果,并进一步计算单位APeq减排成本,从成本有效性角度对各项减排措施进行排序.研究结果表明,出租车、私家车油改气以及纯电动轿车替代汽油轿车3项措施不具有协同控制效应;而提高尾气排放标准、天然气公交替代柴油公交、提升小客车燃油经济性、油品升级、淘汰黄标车、发展轨道交通、引入快速公交等措施可以实现局地大气污染物与温室气体的协同减排.费用-效果分析表明,提高小客车燃油经济性的单位APeq减排成本最低,具有良好的成本有效性;而发展轨道交通虽然单位APeq减排成本较高,但总体减排效果较好.