Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks

Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO₂) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in particular, the livestock sector. Significant increases in imports and decreases in exports result in rather moderate domestic consumption impacts but induce production increases in non-EU countries that are associated with considerable emission leakage effects. The results underline four major challenges for the general integration of agriculture into national and global climate change mitigation policy frameworks and strategies, as they strengthen requests for (1) a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation obligations at national and global level and (2) the need for a wider consideration of technological mitigation options. The results also indicate that a globally effective reduction in agricultural emissions requires (3) multilateral commitments for agriculture to limit emission leakage and may have to (4) consider options that tackle the reduction in GHG emissions from the consumption side.     

Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing

Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change. At the same time, incorporating notions of wellbeing enables recognition of both the health co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across different population groups and geographical contexts. The paper recommends that future adaptation and mitigation policies seek to ensure that benefits are available for all since current evidence suggests that they are spatially and socially differentiated, and their accessibility is dependent on a range of contextually specific socio-cultural factors.     

Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy

Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions. The ability of society to respond to climate change and the need for technological change for both decarbonisation and for dealing with surprise in general, are central to concepts of sustainable development.     

Mitigation and adaptation synergy in forest sector

Mitigation and adaptation are the two main strategies to address climate change. Mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in the global negotiations as well as literature. There is a realization on the need to explore and promote synergy between mitigation and adaptation while addressing climate change. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the synergy between mitigation and adaptation by considering forest sector, which on the one hand is projected to be adversely impacted under the projected climate change scenarios and on the other provide opportunities to mitigate climate change. Thus, the potential and need for incorporating adaptation strategies and practices in mitigation projects is presented with a few examples. Firstly, there is a need to ensure that mitigation programs or projects do not increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems and plantations. Secondly, several adaptation practices could be incorporated into mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability. Further, many of the mitigation projects indeed reduce vulnerability and promote adaptation, for example; forest and biodiversity conservation, protected area management and sustainable forestry. Also, many adaptation options such as urban forestry, soil and water conservation and drought resistant varieties also contribute to mitigation of climate change. Thus, there is need for research and field demonstration of synergy between mitigation and adaptation, so that the cost of addressing climate change impacts can be reduced and co-benefits increased.     

Climate change mitigation strategies in the forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications in British Columbia,Canada

Managing forests to increase carbon sequestration or reduce carbon emissions and using wood products and bioenergy to store carbon and substitute for other emission-intensive products and fossil fuel energy have been considered effective ways to tackle climate change in many countries and regions. The objective of this study is to examine the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector by developing and assessing potential mitigation strategies and portfolios with various goals in British Columbia (BC), Canada. From a systems perspective, mitigation potentials of five individual strategies and their combinations were examined with regionally differentiated implementations of changes. We also calculated cost curves for the strategies and explored socio-economic impacts using an input-output model. Our results showed a wide range of mitigation potentials and that both the magnitude and the timing of mitigation varied across strategies. The greatest mitigation potential was achieved by improving the harvest utilization, shifting the commodity mix to longer-lived wood products, and using harvest residues for bioenergy. The highest cumulative mitigation of 421 MtCO₂e for BC was estimated when employing the strategy portfolio that maximized domestic mitigation during 2017–2050, and this would contribute 35% of BC’s greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050 at less than $100/tCO₂e and provide additional socio-economic benefits. This case study demonstrated the application of an integrated systems approach that tracks carbon stock changes and emissions in forest ecosystems, harvested wood products (HWPs), and the avoidance of emissions through the use of HWPs and is therefore applicable to other countries and regions.     

Co-benefits of post-2012 global climate mitigation policies

This paper provides an analysis of co-benefits for traditional air pollutants made possible through global climate policies using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model in the time horizon up to 2050. The impact analysis is based on projections of energy consumption provided by the Prospective Outlook for the Long term Energy System (POLES) model for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2°C climate policy scenario which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. Outcomes of the analysis are reported globally and for key world regions: the European Union (EU), China, India and the United States. The assessment takes into account current air pollution control legislation in each country. Expenditures on air pollution control under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 250 billion € when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of financial co-benefits estimated world-wide in this study by 2050 occur in China, while an annual cost saving of 35 billion (Euros) € is estimated for the EU if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel. Health impacts of air pollution are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy related to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of fine particles, as well as in terms of premature mortality due to ground-level ozone. For example in China, current ambient concentrations of particulate matter are responsible for about 40 months-losses in the average life expectancy. In 2050, the climate strategies reduce this indicator by 50 %. Decrease of ozone concentrations estimated for the climate scenario might save nearly 20,000 cases of premature death per year. Similarly significant are reductions of impacts on ecosystems due to acidification and eutrophication.     

An integrated climate change assessment for the Northeast United States

The papers in this Special Issue are the primary technical underpinnings for the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA), an integrated regional-scale assessment of projected climate change, impacts and options for mitigation and adaptation across the US Northeast. The consequences of future pathways of greenhouse gas emissions on projected climate and impacts across climate-sensitive sectors is assessed by using downscaled projections from three global climate models under both higher (Alfi) and lower (B1) emissions scenarios. The findings illustrate that near-term reductions in emissions can greatly reduce the extent and severity of regionally important impacts on natural and managed ecosystems and public health in the latter half of this century, and increase the feasibility that those impacts which are now unavoidable can be successfully managed through adaptation.     

Emissions mitigation opportunities and practice in Northeastern United States

Climate change is creating substantial and growing impacts on the Northeastern United States. As the world’s seventh largest contributor of heat trapping carbon dioxide, the region will play a critical role in moving towards stabilizing global concentrations at a level that avoids serious adverse consequences. The Northeast region is well positioned to be a leader in technology and policy innovation for reducing emissions, and can drive national and international programs that are essential to providing a safer future climate. This paper summarizes technological mitigation options and measures as well as opportunities for public and private actions to reduce emissions. The authors propose a ‘3% solution’ of annual emission reductions to put the Northeastern United States on an emissions reductions path that is consistent with the level of reductions necessary to avoid dangerous climate change. The 3% solution requires a combination of policies that will reduce the energy imbedded in the region’s infrastructure and technologies, and individual action to choose the lowest emitting of available technologies and practices.     

气候变化对中国海洋经济可持续发展的影响

为评估气候变化及实施减排政策对中国海洋经济的影响,本文构建了中国海洋经济社会经济核算矩阵(marine social accounting matrix,MSAM),并以此为数据基础构建中国海洋经济可计算一般均衡(computable general equilibrium,CGE)模型,并将该模型与气候变化影响模型相结合,从而实现了从气候变化对自然系统的影响到对经济系统影响的转化。论文设计了实施和不实施温室气体减排两种政策时的可能的6种气候变化情景。各情景的模拟分析表明:海平面上升同时考虑天文潮最高潮位、同时考虑最大台风暴潮和最大天文潮耦合影响两种子情景下,中国实施减排政策对沿海GDP的影响要分别比不实施减排政策低0.19%和0.12%;海平面上升叠加天文潮、风暴潮3种子情景下,实施减排政策对海洋经济的影响要分别比不实施减排政策低1.67%、0.72%、0.37%。     

Climate change mitigation policy paradigms—national objectives and alignments

The aim of this paper is to assess how policy goals in relation to the promotion of green growth, energy security, pollution control and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions have been aligned in policies that have been implemented in selected countries during the last decades as a basis for discussing how a multi objective policy paradigm can contribute to future climate change mitigation. The paper includes country case studies from Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea and the United States covering renewable energy options, industry, transportation, the residential sector and cross-sectoral policies. These countries and regions together contribute more than two thirds of global GHG emissions. The paper finds that policies that are nationally driven and that have multiple objectives, including climate-change mitigation, have been widely applied for decades in both developing countries and industrialised countries. Many of these policies have a long history, and adjustments have taken place based on experience and cost effectiveness concerns. Various energy and climate-change policy goals have worked together in these countries, and in practice a mix of policies reflecting specific priorities and contexts have been pursued. In this way, climate-change mitigation has been aligned with other policy objectives and integrated into broader policy packages, though in many cases specific attention has not been given to the achievement of large GHG emission reductions. Based on these experiences with policy implementation, the paper highlights a number of key coordination and design issues that are pertinent to the successful joint implementation of several energy and climate-change policy goals.     

Moving towards ambitious climate policies: Monetised health benefits from improved air quality could offset mitigation costs in Europe

Air quality and related health effects are not only affected by policies directly addressed at air pollution but also by other environmental strategies such as climate mitigation. This study addresses how different climate policy pathways indirectly bear upon air pollution in terms of improved human health in Europe. To this end, we put in perspective mitigation costs and monetised health benefits of reducing PM_2.5 (particles less than 2.5 μm in diameter) and ozone concentrations.Air quality in Europe and related health impacts were assessed using a comprehensive modelling chain, based on global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models together with a health impact assessment tool. This allows capturing both the impact of climate policy on emissions of air pollutants and the geophysical impact of climate change on air quality.Results are presented for projections at the 2050 horizon, for a set of consistent air pollution and climate policy scenarios, combined with population data from the UN's World Population Prospects, and are expressed in terms of morbidity and mortality impacts of PM_2.5 and ozone pollution and their monetised damage equivalent.The analysis shows that enforcement of current European air quality policies would effectively reduce health impacts from PM_2.5 in Europe even in the absence of climate policies (life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 decrease by 78% between 2005 and 2050 in the reference scenario), while impacts for ozone depend on the ambition level of international climate policies. A move towards stringent climate policies on a global scale, in addition to limiting global warming, creates co-benefits in terms of reduced health impacts (68% decrease in life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 and 85% decrease in premature deaths from ozone in 2050 in the mitigation scenario relative to the reference scenario) and air pollution cost savings (77%) in Europe. These co-benefits are found to offset at least 85% of the additional cost of climate policy in this region.     

A policy review of synergies and trade-offs in South African climate change mitigation and air pollution control strategies

Climate change mitigation and air quality management are mostly addressed separately in South African legal acts and policies. This approach is not always coherent, especially in the context of other serious issues South Africa is facing, such as poverty alleviation. Policies implemented to mitigate climate change might increase negative health affects due to unanticipated outcomes (e.g. increased local air pollution), and these indirect consequences must therefore be taken into account when devising mitigation strategies. However, greenhouse gas mitigation policies can also have co-benefits and positive impacts on local air pollution. An evidence-based approach that takes into account greenhouse gas emissions, ambient air pollutants, economic factors (affordability, cost optimisation), social factors (poverty alleviations, public health benefits), and political acceptability is needed tackle these challenges. A proposal is made that use of an integrated climate/air pollution techno-economic optimising model, such as the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Synergies (GAINS) model, may provide a rational decision support tool to guide policy makers into effective strategies for combined Climate Change and Air Quality mitigation measures.     

Integrated scenario modelling of energy,greenhouse gas emissions and forestry

Preventing dangerous climate change requires actions on several sectors. Mitigation strategies have focused primarily on energy, because fossil fuels are the main source of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Another important sector recently gaining more attention is the forest sector. Deforestation is responsible for approximately one fifth of the global emissions, while growing forests sequester and store significant amounts of carbon. Because energy and forest sectors and climate change are highly interlinked, their interactions need to be analysed in an integrated framework in order to better understand the consequences of different actions and policies, and find the most effective means to reduce emissions. This paper presents a model, which integrates energy use, forests and greenhouse gas emissions and describes the most important linkages between them. The model is applied for the case of Finland, where integrated analyses are of particular importance due to the abundant forest resources, major forest carbon sink and strong linkage with the energy sector. However, the results and their implications are discussed in a broader perspective. The results demonstrate how full integration of all net emissions into climate policy could increase the economic efficiency of climate change mitigation. Our numerical scenarios showed that enhancing forest carbon sinks would be a more cost-efficient mitigation strategy than using forests for bioenergy production, which would imply a lower sink. However, as forest carbon stock projections involve large uncertainties, their full integration to emission targets can introduce new and notable risks for mitigation strategies.     

Air quality and climate change: Designing new win-win policies for Europe

Anthropogenic activities are responsible for the emission of gaseous and particulate pollutants that modify atmospheric composition. Such changes are, in turn, responsible for the degradation of air quality at the regional/local scale as well as for changes of climate. Air pollution and climate change are two intimately connected environmental issues. However, these two environmental challenges are still viewed as separate issues, which are dealt with by different science communities and within different policy frameworks. Indeed, many mitigation options offer the possibility to both improve air quality and mitigate climate change but, at the same time, mitigation options that may provide benefits to one aspect, are worsening the situation in the other. Therefore, coordinated actions taking into account the air quality-climate linkages are required. These actions need to be based on strong scientific grounds, as recognised by the European Commission that in the past few years has promoted consultation processes among the science community, the policy makers and the relevant stakeholders. Here, the main fields in which such coordinated actions are needed are examined from a policy perspective.     

Motivations and barriers for Western Australian broad-acre farmers to adopt carbon farming

Carbon farming policies aim to contribute to climate change mitigation, but their success strongly depends on whether landholders actually adopt desired practices or participate in offered programs. The Australian Government’s Carbon Farming Initiative and Emissions Reduction Fund policies were designed to incentivise the adoption of carbon farming practices. Although these policies have been active since December 2011, farmer engagement has been limited, and net emissions reductions low as a result. We surveyed broad-acre farmers in the Western Australian wheatbelt to explore their drivers and barriers to adopting carbon farming practices and participating in carbon farming policy programs. Drivers of adoption included knowledge and perception of co-benefits (for yield, productivity, and the environment), knowing another adopter, and believing that changes to farm management are an appropriate method to reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. Barriers to adoption included lack of information, uncertainty and costs. The key barrier to participation was policy and political uncertainty. The determinants of adoption and participation that we identify in our study offer important insights into how to best ensure the success of Australia’s land sector-based climate change policies. We conclude that, to increase landholder engagement, the co-benefits and climate change benefits of carbon farming practices must be actively promoted, and additional information is needed about the costs associated with adoption. Information diffusion is best achieved if it actively leverages landholder social networks. Finally, our results indicate that landholder buy-in to carbon farming could be greatly enhanced by achieving more continuity in Australian climate change policies and politics.     

The effect of increasing lifespan and recycling rate on carbon storage in wood products from theoretical model to application for the European wood sector

The use of wood products is often promoted as a climate change mitigation option to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. In previous literature, we identified longevity and recycling rate as two determining factors that influence the carbon stock in wood products, but no studies have predicted the effect of improved wood use on carbon storage over time. In this study, we aimed at evaluating changes in the lifespan and the recycling rate as two options for enhancing carbon stock in wood products for different time horizons. We first explored the behaviour over time of both factors in a theoretical simulation, and then calculated their effect for the European wood sector of the future. The theoretical simulation shows that the carbon stock in wood products increases linearly when increasing the average lifespan of wood products and exponentially when improving the recycling rate. The emissions savings under the current use of wood products in Europe in 2030 were estimated at 57.65 Mt carbon dioxide (CO₂) per year. This amount could be increased 5 Mt CO₂ if average lifespan increased 19.54 % or if recycling rate increased 20.92 % in 2017. However, the combination of both strategies could increase the emissions saving almost 5 Mt CO₂ more by 2030. Incrementing recycling rate of paper and paperboard is the best short-term strategy (2030) to reduce emissions, but elongating average lifespan of wood-based panels is a better strategy for longer term periods (2046).     

Ancillary impacts of energy-related climate change mitigation options in Africa’s least developed countries

This article analyses the debate associated with the ancillary impacts of climate change mitigation options in developing countries, with a particular focus upon Africa’s 34 least developed countries. While these countries’ emissions of greenhouse gases are relatively small (and they do not have emission limitation commitments in the current international regime), inattention to the mitigation agenda would mean that developing countries both miss potential funding opportunities and fail to ‘climate-proof’ their development strategies. A focus, therefore, upon the short-term, local, developmental impacts that serve to change the relative attractiveness of different mitigation options from the perspective of the developing country is in these countries’ current strategic interests. In this article, I examine three energy-related climate change mitigation options: improved cookstoves, carbon-free electricity and improved energy efficiency in industry. Key ancillary impacts are better indoor air quality, better outdoor air quality and job creation (respectively). Further work to strengthen the evidence base regarding these impacts needs to be undertaken, potentially drawing upon broader work that has already been completed. Thus, in conclusion, a call for cross-fertilisation of information between heretofore disparate research communities is made. Additionally, the development of an integrated research agenda, forging linkages among cookstoves, indoor air quality and climate change mitigation research communities in Africa’s least developed countries, is identified as a priority.     

Implication of the cluster analysis using greenhouse gas emissions of Asian countries to climate change mitigation

Climate change caused by excessive emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere has gained serious attention from the global community for a long time. More and more countries have decided to propose their goals such as Paris agreements, to reduce emitting these heat trapping compounds for sustainability. The Asian region houses dramatic changes with diverse religions and cultures, large populations as well as a rapidly changing socio-economic situations all of which are contributing to generating a mammoth amount of GHGs; hence, they require calls for related studies on climate change strategies. After pre-filtering of GHG emission information, 24 Asian countries have been selected as primary target countries. Hierarchical cluster analysis method using complete linkage technique was successfully applied for appropriate grouping. Six groups were categorized through GHG emission properties with major and minor emission sectors based on the GHG inventory covering energy, industrial processes, agriculture, waste, land use change, and forestry and bunker fuels. Assigning six groups using cluster analysis finally implied that the approach to establish GHG emission boundaries was meaningful to develop further mitigation strategies. Following the outcome of this study, calculating amount of reduction potential in suitable sectors as well as determining best practice, technology, and regulatory framework can be improved by policy makers, environmental scientists, and planners at the different levels. Therefore, this work on reviewing a wide range of GHG emission history and establishing boundaries of emission characteristics would provide further direction of effective climate change mitigation for sustainability and resilience in Asia.     

Including land use,land-use change,and forestry in future climate change,agreements: thinking outside the box

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely “de-linking” LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.     

Modeling the impact of mitigation options on methane abatement from rice fields

The enhanced concentration of methane (CH₄) in the atmosphere is significantly responsible for the ominous threat of global warming. Rice (Oryza) paddies are one of the largest anthropogenic sources of atmospheric CH₄. Abatement strategies for mitigating CH₄ emissions from rice fields offer an avenue to reduce the global atmospheric burden of methane and hence the associated menace of climate change. Projections on population growth suggest that world rice production must increase to meet the population’s food energy demand. In this scenario, those mitigation options are advocated which address both the objectives of methane mitigation and increased production of rice simultaneously. In this paper, we have formulated a nonlinear mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness and limitations of such options in reducing and stabilizing the atmospheric concentration of CH₄ while increasing rice yield. In modeling process, it is assumed that implementation rate of mitigation options is proportional to the enhanced concentration of atmospheric CH₄ due to rice fields. Model analysis reveals that implementation of mitigation options not always provides “win-win” outcome. Conditions under which these options reduce and stabilize CH₄ emission from rice fields have been derived. These conditions are useful in devising strategies for effective abatement of CH₄ emission from rice fields along with sustainable increase in rice yield. The analysis also shows that CH₄ abatement highly depends on efficiencies of mitigation options to mitigate CH₄ emission and improve rice production as well as on the implementation rate of mitigation options. Numerical simulation is carried out to verify theoretical findings.