Implications of a changing climate on food security and smallholders’ livelihoods in Bogotá, Colombia

Small farmers who supply the city of Bogotá with food are facing many challenges that are jeopardizing their livelihoods and by extension, the food security of Colombia’s capital. We expect future changes in climatic conditions to exacerbate the plight of the small farmers and this is expected to compromise Bogota’s food security even further. This paper specifically seeks to assess the impact of climate change (CC) on the livelihoods of smallholders who supply Bogota with most of its food. In our multidisciplinary methodology, we translated the exposure to CC into direct impact on crops and assessed sensitivity and adaptive capacity using the sustainable rural livelihoods framework. The results show that rainfall (by average of 100 mm) and temperature (by average of 2.1 °C) will increase over the study area, while the future climate suitability of the most important crops such as mango (Mangifera indica), papaya (Carica papaya), corn (Zea mays) and plantain (Musa balbisiana) shows a decrease of 19 % to 47 % climate suitability by the year 2050. The assessment of sensitivity and adaptive capacity demonstrates that farmers participating in a farmers’ market, initiated by several local and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs), are less vulnerable to CC than farmers who sell through intermediaries. Those farmers selling directly to consumers in the farmers’ market have a higher adaptive capacity (3 on a scale of 3) in social and financial capital than those selling to intermediaries with less adaptive capacity (1 on a scale of 3). In light of the reduction in overall climatic suitability of some of the major crops and the change of geographic location of suitability for others, there are likely to be serious threats for Bogotá’s food security, the ecological landscape around the city, and farmers’ livelihoods. We further conclude that unless proper adaptation measures are implemented, the geographical shift in climate suitability may also force farmers to shift their crops to higher elevations including remaining forests and páramos (the Colombian alpine tundra ecosystems), which may be threatened in the near future.     

Screening of climatic impacts on a country’s international supply chains: Japan as a case study

Industrial activities are linked through international supply chains, and the impacts that one country experiences can easily influence other countries. Climate change has made it essential for countries to review their supply chains and to prioritize introducing concrete adaptation actions. Therefore, this study aims to demonstrate a method of screening imported products that are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change by assessing all imported products in a consistent manner throughout the global supply chain to support a country’s adaptation strategy planning. The study focuses on the potential impacts on land use and human health of climate change effects such as floods and heat waves. Japan was selected for a detailed analysis of its imports. A life-cycle assessment technique was applied to evaluate imported products through their supply chains. In Japan’s case, land use results show that agricultural products imported from the United States of America (US) are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. In relation to imported meat products, feed production processes are most vulnerable. The human health results show in addition to agricultural imports, electronics and textile imports are also vulnerable. The study recommends that the relevant stakeholders impacted by these products scrutinize their supply chains. Especially, Japan is recommended to collaborate with the US, China, and Southeast Asian countries for increasing resilience to climate change. The results include uncertainties due to limitations of data availability and methodology; however, this method is also applicable to assessing the global trade activities of any country and to supporting global adaptation strategies.     

The impact of the Clean Development Mechanism on developing countries’ commitment to mitigate climate change and its implications for the future

The objective of this paper is to examine the mitigation of climate change using the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) from the perspective of developing countries. The effects of the CDM on developing countries’ efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) pledged under the Paris Agreement (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], 21st Conference of the Parties, Paris, France) are investigated. Data analysis reveals that the intensive hosting of CDM projects and the resultant higher marginal abatement costs led to fewer efforts by developing countries to mitigate climate change. A theoretical model from the literature of “low-hanging fruits” is applied to determine if rising prices of the CDM can be expected in the future. The results indicate that the benefits for developing countries must increase so as to keep the CDM attractive for them in an environment where they also have reduction commitments. To further ensure the effectiveness of the CDM under the Paris Agreement, policy should ensure that developing countries actually charge higher prices and, at the same time, contribute adequately to the global goal of GHG reductions. To this end, developing countries should be permitted to demand benefits that lie outside the current scope of the CDM, and non-compliance with their climate targets should also be sanctioned. In addition, fostering sustainable development should become more attractive for developed countries without the CDM, e.g., through sustainability labels, so as to reduce the trade-off for developing countries between the benefits of the CDM and compliance with their commitments to mitigate climate change.

     

The regulation of China’s township and village coal mines: a study of complexity and ineffectiveness

An appropriate system of laws and regulations and a suitable institutional structure for administration are important requirements for the effective management of small-scale mines. Over the last twenty years, township and village coal mines in China have made a large contribution to the country’s supply of energy. Yet at the same time they have had substantial negative impacts, such as wastage of coal resources, a high casualty rate amongst miners, and a wide range of environmental damage. Two reasons for the magnitude of these externalities are the highly complex nature of the institutional structure for regulating small-scale coal mines, and the excessive and incoherent burden of applicable laws and regulations.     

Gaps in provincial decision-maker’s perception and knowledge of climate change adaptation in China

The perspectives and knowledge of decision makers, especially those at the provincial level, have great impact on the progress of climate change adaptation in China. Therefore, identifying knowledge gaps and enhancing climate adaptation awareness of decision makers at that level is very important. Based on this aim, we conducted a survey of climate change adaptation awareness among 85 administrative and management personnel from governmental departments responsible for climate change adaptation planning in five provinces. Study findings revealed that over half of respondents have knowledge of climate change adaptation measures, but the extent of understanding varied across different adaptation aspects and regions. Among the different aspects, understanding of measures related to human health protection was the lowest. A large majority of respondents indicated an eagerness to obtain knowledge and information about climate change adaptation, but the main barrier is a lack of training and learning material. When making adaptation plans or policies, the greatest obstacle expressed was a funding shortage. Information generated from this study can provide direction and guidance for training and educating provincial decision makers in order to improve the levels of adaptation planning and policy making.     

Benefits of tropical forest management under the new climate change agreement—a case study in Cambodia

Promoting sustainable forest management as part of the reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation in developing countries (REDD)-plus mechanism in the Copenhagen Accord of December 2009 implies that tropical forests will no longer be ignored in the new climate change agreement. As new financial incentives are pledged, costs and revenues on a 1-ha tract of tropical forestland being managed or cleared for other land use options need to be assessed so that appropriate compensation measures can be proposed. Cambodia's highly stocked evergreen forest, which has experienced rapid degradation and deforestation, will be the first priority forest to be managed if financial incentives through a carbon payment scheme are available. By analyzing forest inventory data, we assessed the revenues and costs for managing a hypothetical 1 ha of forestland against six land use options: business-as-usual timber harvesting (BAU-timber), forest management under the REDD-plus mechanism, forest-to-teak plantation, forest-to-acacia plantation, forest-to-rubber plantation, and forest-to-oil palm plantation. We determined annual equivalent values for each option, and the BAU-timber and REDD-plus management options were the highest, with both options influenced by logging costs and timber price. Financial incentives should be provided at a level that would allow continuation of sustainable logging and be attractive to REDD-plus project developers.     

Farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and barriers to adaptation: lessons learned from an exploratory study in Vietnam

Southeast Asian countries are confronting climate variability, challenging agricultural sustainability and rural livelihoods. However, little research effort has been devoted to exploring how farmers in those countries perceive climate variability and how the perceptions link to adaptive responses. This paper deploys information from three focus group discussions with 30 male farmers; and six in-depth interviews with one female and five male agricultural officers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Recorded 34-year meteorological data in the delta from 1978 to 2011 is also incorporated to demonstrate the actual climate variability of the region. We find that farmers are becoming increasingly conscious of local climate variability issues. However, they have limited understanding of the importance of adaptation to their livelihoods. They also have limited knowledge of where and who to contact for appropriate climate change adaptation information. No opinions about the link between global warming and local climate variability and change were observed. Casual observation via public media and personal experience dominated farmers’ sources of information. Barriers to farmers’ adaptation are not exclusively restricted to socio-economic factors and resource constraints; e.g. land tenure, technical knowledge, market, social relationship, credit, information, health care, and demographics. Maladaptation, habit, and the perception of the importance of climate variability and adaptation are found as additional constraints. Observed differences in farmers’ and agricultural officers’ perspectives regarding barriers to farmers’ adaptation suggest important policy implications.     

The effect of conservation tillage in managing climate change in arid and semiarid areas—a case study in Northwest China

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - Coastal cities are exposed to high risks due to climate change, as they are potentially affected by both rising sea levels and increasingly...     

Accounting of forest carbon sinks and sources under a future climate protocol—factoring out past disturbance and management effects on age–class structure

Today, forests in the northern hemisphere are a sink for carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere, partly due to changes in forest management practice and intensity. Parties of the Kyoto Protocol had the option to elect to account for direct human-induced carbon (C) sources and sinks from land management activities since 1990. The effect of age–class structure of a forest landscape resulting from past practices and disturbances before the reference year 1990 should be excluded, but methods for “factoring out” the effects of this age–class legacy on carbon emissions and removals are lacking. The legacy effect can be strong and can even overwhelm effects of post-1990 management. It therefore needs to be “factored out”, i.e., removed from the direct human-induced post-1990 effects. In this study we examine how the contributions to forest biomass carbon stock changes of (1) past (pre-1990) disturbances and harvest and (2) recent (post-1990) changes in forest management can be differentiated in present and future observable carbon dynamics in managed forest ecosystems. We also calculate the consequences of different accounting rules for the magnitude and direction of accountable C stock changes in European countries in the period 2013–2017.Different accounting approaches are compared in terms of applicability and their ability to provide incentives for management changes to increase carbon sinks and reduce carbon sources. We demonstrate implications of the various ways of accounting for a sample of European countries with different initial age–class structures. The current forest age–class distribution in countries determines whether and how many credits can be created by the various accounting approaches. We suggest an approach that includes a dynamic, forward-looking baseline as reference and list options to define such a baseline. Accounting of recent management change against such a baseline factors out the contribution of the legacy effect to accounting results and only rewards the effect of recent changes in forest management practices in support of climate change mitigation. We demonstrate that relatively simple, state-of-the-art forest models can factor out effects of past practices and past disturbances on present and future carbon stock changes. Factoring out of past practice effects is thus technically feasible but the numerical results are highly dependent on the choice of baseline which will be subject to negotiation. It is possible, however, to select a dynamic baseline that represents “business-as-usual”, and to isolate and account for only the changes in management. Changes in accounting rules will always be advantageous for some countries and disadvantageous for others, but using a dynamic “business-as-usual” baseline effectively removes the legacy of pre-1990 age–class effects, and thus overcomes one of the acknowledged shortcomings of the current accounting approach.     

Reprint of “The future of hydropower in Europe: Interconnecting climate,markets and policies”

Hydropower is very important for electricity supply security in the European inter-connexion as well as for the economy of regions (primarily peripheral) that possess water resources. Its future may however be jeopardized by several factors: climate change, the development of new renewable energy, the creation of super and micro-grids, and progress in power storage technology. Energy and climate policy, as well as electricity market design and dynamics play a pivotal role.This article carries out a comprehensive analysis of all these factors and discusses the future of hydropower. This discussion follows an overview of the present situation and of future drivers. The technical, environmental, economic and political aspects of the problem are analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach. The stakes as well as the uncertainties are highlighted.The conclusion is that hydropower has a promising future, particularly in light of emerging sustainable energy policy, but that the risks should not be overlooked. Academics will find a comprehensive interdisciplinary analysis of hydropower in this article, whereas public bodies, communities and hydropower companies can identify the strategic variables that should be taken into consideration in the decision making process. The end of water concessions or authorizations is also evoked.     

Does a change of irrigation technique impact on groundwater resources? A case study in Northeastern Italy

The Venetian plain is a densely populated area and one of the most economically competitive regions in Europe. Therefore, a sustainable management of the water resources has to be accomplished to preserve both the social and economic value of this area and the regional environment in accordance with the European water policy directives. This paper presents the analysis of hydrologic and hydrogeological water balances of the high alluvial plain (approximately 790 km²) highlighting some important peculiarities that could be crucial for the local water policy. By focusing on the importance of different water budget components, the obtained results indicate in the irrigation the most relevant component of the aquifer recharge. Thus, the irrigation management policy of the Land Reclamation Consortia strongly influences aquifer recharge. Moreover, future scenarios (2071–2100) for the high Venetian plain are performed taking into account the changes of climate and irrigation policy. The inflow of the aquifer suffers a decrease ranging from 18% in the scenario influenced by climate change to 28% in the scenario affected by both the variations. In particular, the irrigation recharge shows the highest reduction due to both an increase in evaporation, owing to an increase in the surface temperature, or the irrigation methods. Therefore, the irrigation management policy adopted by the Land Reclamation Consortia is a fundamental concern. Changes from surface irrigation to spray or drip irrigation could strongly affect the aquifer recharge. The classical technique of surface irrigation is very useful in terms of aquifer recharge in comparison with drip or spray irrigation. However, it also requires a huge volume of water compared with the minimum desirable streamflow of a river and its management policy. Currently in Italy, the transition from conventional irrigation systems to water saving techniques is favored by the Land Reclamation Consortia in response to European and Italian directives. However, the possible reduction of the aquifer recharge could influence the actual social and economic condition of the Venetian plain because the human and industrial water needs are mostly dependent by groundwater exploitation. Therefore, water saving activities should be accompanied by appropriate corrective actions to reduce the environmental and social impact due to the decrease in aquifer recharge.     

Chemical characteristics of long-term acid rain and its impact on lake water chemistry:A case study in Southwest China

The chemical composition of acid rain and its impact on lake water chemistry in Chongqing,China,from 2000 to 2020 were studied in this study.The regional acid rain intensity is affected jointly by the acid gas emissions and the neutralization of alkaline substances.The pH of precipitation experienced three stages of fluctuating decline,continuous improvement,and a slight correction.Precipitation pH showed inflection points in 2010,mainly due to the total control actions of SO₂and NO     

Application of AERMOD on near future air quality simulation under the latest national emission control policy of China：A case study on an industrial city

Air quality model can be an adequate tool for future air quality prediction, also atmospheric observations supporting and emission control strategies responders. The influence of emission control policy (emission reduction targets in the national "China’s 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015)") on the air quality in the near future over an important industrial city of China, Xuanwei in Yunnan Province, was studied by applying the AERMOD modeling system. First, our analysis demonstrated that the AERMOD modeling system could be used in the air quality simulation in the near future for SO2 and NOx under average meteorology but not for PM10. Second, after evaluating the simulation results in 2008 and 2015, ambient concentration of SO2, NOx and PM10 (only 2008) were all centered in the middle of simulation area where the emission sources concentrated, and it is probably because the air pollutions were source oriented. Last but not least, a better air quality condition will happen under the hypothesis that the average meteorological data can be used in near future simulation. However, there are still heavy polluted areas where ambient concentrations will exceed the air quality standard in near future. In spatial allocation, reduction effect of SO2 is more significant than NOx in 2015 as the contribution of SO2 from industry is more than NOx. These results inspired the regulatory applications of AERMOD modeling system in evaluating environmental pollutant control policy     

Landscape structure and land uese on county level in northeastern Yunnan Province of China—a case study of Huize County

Taking Huize County as an example, the paper analyzed the landscape structure(landscape element structure, landscape type structure, landscape spatial structure, landscape succession structure) and the relations between landscape structure and land use. It was pointed out that the agriculture should be developed in harmony with the landscape structure in the study area.     

Landscape structure and land uese on county level in northeastern Yunnan Province of China—a case study of Huize County

1　Ｌａｎｄｓｃａｐｅｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅａｎａｌｙｓｉｓ1.1　ＴｈｅｅｌｅｍｅｎｔｓｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅＴｈｅｓｔｕｄｙａｒｅａ(ＨｕｉｚｅＣｏｕｎｔｙ)ｉｓｌｏｃａｔｅｄａｔ2 5°48′34″— 2 7°0 3′19″Ｎａｎｄ 10 3°0 3′47″— 10 3°54′2 7″Ｅ .ＩｔｂｅｌｏｎｇｓｔｏｔｈｅＺｈａｏｔｏｎｇａｎｄＸｕａｎｗｅｉｍｏｕｎｔａｉｎ ｐｌａｔｅａｕｒｅｇｉｏｎｗｉｔｈｓｅｍｉ ｈｕｍｉｄｅｖｅｒｇｒｅｅｎｂｒｏａｄ ｌｅａｖｅｄｆｏｒｅｓｔａｎｄｒｅｄｅａｒｔｈｏｆｎｏｒｔｈｅｒｎｓｕｂｔｒｏｐｉｃａｌＹ…     

Subsistence over symbolism: the role of transnational municipal networks on cities’ climate policy innovation and adoption

Urban areas account for the majority of global greenhouse gas emissions, and increasingly, it is city governments that are adopting and implementing climate mitigation policies. Many municipal governments have joined two different global city networks that aim to promote climate policy development at the urban scale, and there is qualitative evidence that such networks play an important role in motivating cities to adopt climate policies and helping them to implement them. Our study objective is to test this proposition quantitatively, making use of a global database on cities’ environmental policy adoption, and also taking into account a large number of other factors that could play a role in climate policy adoption. Controlling for these other factors, we find that network membership does make a significant difference in the number of different measures that city governments adopt. We also find that there are significant differences between the two different networks, suggesting that the nature of the services that such networks offer their members can play an important role. Our findings lead to the provision of a set of global mitigation strategies: First of all, joining the city networks can lead to a generation of global strategies which can result into climate mitigation benefits. However, cities are required to select the network which provides proper tailor made policies. Second, in the absence of concrete international commitments at the local level, city networks lay the ground for global governance and enable cities to adopt policies independently and proactively. Third, consideration of co-benefits of climate policies can optimize the development of global strategies.