基于中国电网结构及一线典型城市车辆出行特征的PHEV二氧化碳排放分析

中国电网火电比例的空间差异与插电式混合动力汽车（PHEV）驱动能源的二元性增加了研究PHEV二氧化碳排放的复杂性.使用上海市50辆PHEV汽车13万km的数据,研究了基于PHEV实际运行数据的二氧化碳排放评估方法,分析了PHEV纯电驱动里程比例及其影响因素,获得了纯电续驶里程、充电频率、电网构成对PHEV二氧化碳排放强度的影响,展望了2020年PHEV技术水平的二氧化碳减排效果.结果表明,我国一线城市PHEV乘用车出行主要集中在50 km以内的范围,占日常出行频次的70%;在2016年全国平均电网结构下,续驶里程超过50 km的PHEV比传统燃油车少排放15%以上的二氧化碳;在高比例可再生能源电网结构的地区,PHEV碳排放可降至100.0 g·km^-1以下,相比平均电网结构下碳排放水平降低幅度在28%以上;在2016年平均电网结构及技术水平下,纯电续驶里程增加（50~100 km）、充电频率增加（0.5~2次·d^-1）对碳排放的改善幅度不明显;与2016年相比,2020年PHEV燃油经济性和电耗水平的改善可降低32%的碳排放.     

Real-world fuel efficiency and exhaust emissions of light-duty diesel vehicles and their correlation with road conditions

The real-world fuel efficiency and exhaust emission profiles of CO, HC and NO_x for light-duty diesel vehicles were investigated. Using a portable emissions measurement system, 16 diesel taxies were tested on different roads in Macao and the data were normalized with the vehicle specific power bin method. The 11 Toyota Corolla diesel taxies have very good fuel economy of (5.9 ± 0.6) L/100 km, while other five diesel taxies showed relatively high values at (8.5 ± 1.7) L/100 km due to the variation in transmission systems and emission control strategies. Compared to similar Corolla gasoline models, the diesel cars confirmed an advantage of ca. 20% higher fuel efficiency. HC and CO emissions of all the 16 taxies are quite low, with the average at (0.05 ± 0.02) g/km and (0.38 ± 0.15) g/km, respectively. The average NO_x emission factor of the 11 Corolla taxies is (0.56 ± 0.17) g/km, about three times higher than their gasoline counterparts. Two of the three Hyundai Sonata taxies, configured with exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) + diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) emission control strategies, indicated significantly higher NO₂ emissions and NO₂/NO_x ratios than other diesel taxies and consequently trigger a concern of possibly adverse impacts on ozone pollution in urban areas with this technology combination. A clear and similar pattern for fuel consumption and for each of the three gaseous pollutant emissions with various road conditions was identified. To save energy and mitigate CO₂ emissions as well as other gaseous pollutant emissions in urban area, traffic planning also needs improvement.     

Optimal range of plug-in electric vehicles in Beijing and Shanghai

Both China’s national subsidy policies for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) purchasers and passenger cars corporate average fuel consumption and new vehicle credit regulation (dual-credit policy) favor long-range 300+ km battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and 80+ km plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). However, these electric vehicles tend to have lower energy efficiency and higher purchase and operation costs. Vehicle with larger batteries can also be less equitable because the subsidies are often provided to more expensive vehicles and wealthier owners. This study takes advantage of a novel dataset of daily driving data from 39,854 conventional gasoline vehicles in Beijing and 4999 PHEVs in Shanghai to determine the optimal range of BEVs and PHEVs within their respective cities. We simulate a model to explore ranges with which PEVs emit less GHGs than that of a baseline hybrid and conventional gasoline vehicle while ensuring that all daily travel demands are met. Our findings indicate that in both cities, the optimal ranges to balance cost and travel demand for BEVs are 350 km or less and for PHEVs are 60 km or less in Beijing and 80 km or less in Shanghai. We also find that to minimize carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, the ranges are even lower 10 km in Beijing and 30 km in Shanghai. Our study suggests that instead of encouraging long-range PEVs, governments should subsidize PEV models with shorter ranges. Parallel efforts should also be made to both increase renewable energy over fossil fuels and expand charging facilities. Although individual mobility demand varies, the government could reduce occasional long-distance driving by subsidizing alternative transportation choices. Providing week-long driving trials to consumers before their purchases may help decrease the demand of very long range PEVs by alleviating the range anxiety through a learning process.

     

基于车载诊断系统的轻型乘用车实际道路油耗特征分析

近年来的一系列研究表明,轻型车实际道路油耗与型式认证油耗间的差异在不断增大,之前的实际道路油耗研究大多基于用户上报数据或车载排放测试系统(PEMS).车载诊断系统(OBD)是一种监测发动机及排放控制系统实时工作状态的仪器.本研究通过OBD解码器采集瞬时发动机进气量计算机动车瞬态油耗并通过2辆轻型汽油车的实验室台架测试证明该方法具有很好的准确性(差异在±5%以内).本研究进一步在北京选取了7辆轻型汽油车,利用OBD解码器开展实际道路油耗测试,并研究运行工况及车辆载重对其实际道路油耗的影响.实际道路结果显示测试车辆在典型工况下的油耗比型式认证油耗高23.1%~46.4%,平均差异为29.2%.通过微观运行模态方法将实际道路油耗修正到法规测试循环(NEDC工况)的交通特征下,道路油耗仍然比型式认证油耗高18.7%±7.1%.研究表明,平均速度与实际道路油耗具有很强的相关性.实际道路油耗在30 km·h-1以下时会随速度降低而显著上升.此外,研究还发现如果车辆载重增加260 kg,实际道路油耗将上升6.2%±2.2%.     

低碳交通电动汽车碳减排潜力及其影响因素分析

交通运输是城市能源消耗和碳排放的重点行业,为通过节能减排实现低碳城市发展目标,传统汽油车向新能源汽车的转型是一项重要的举措,其中电动汽车因其节能减排的优势将在这次转型中发挥重要作用.在全面总结现有电动汽车节能减排研究成果的基础上,分析了影响电动汽车的减排因素,并应用燃料生命周期的理论,结合北京市的电动汽车推广计划,以纯电动汽车为例,采用改进的燃料碳排放模型,并设置6种情景分析了电动汽车的碳排放及其减排潜力,包括发电能源结构、车用燃料类型(单位燃料的CO2排放系数)、汽车类型(百公里能耗)、城市交通状况(时速)、煤电发电技术、电池类型(重量、能效)等因素对电动汽车减排潜力的影响.结果表明,改进后的模型能更科学测算燃料消耗碳排放;纯电动汽车具有明显的制约性碳减排潜力,在分析的6种影响因素中其波动幅度为57%～81.2%,其中,发电能源结构和煤电技术供电路线对电动汽车燃料生命周期碳减排空间起决定性作用,其减排空间分别可达78.1%及81.2%.最后从改善能源结构、提高煤电技术、推广节能技术、加快动力蓄电池研发、推广纯电动汽车等方面提出了推广电动汽车降低交通能耗和碳排放的优化措施,以期为低碳交通新能源汽车转型政策的制定提供科学依据和方法支撑.     

Variability of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions of a gasoline passenger car under multiple in-laboratory and on-road testing conditions

An increasing divergence regarding fuel consumption(and/or CO₂ emissions) between realworld and type-approval values for light-duty gasoline vehicles(LDGVs) has posed severe challenges to mitigating greenhouse gases(GHGs) and achieving carbon emissions peak and neutrality. To address this divergence issue, laboratory test cycles with more real-featured and transient traffic patterns have been developed recently, for example, the China Lightduty Vehicle Test Cycle for Passenger cars(CL...     

Carbonyl emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicle exhaust in China and the contribution to ozone formation potential

Fifteen heavy-duty diesel vehicles were tested on chassis dynamometer by using typical heavy duty driving cycle and fuel economy cycle. The air from the exhaust was sampled by 2,4- dinitrophenyhydrazine cartridge and 23 carbonyl compounds were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography. The average emission factor of carbonyls was 97.2 mg/km, higher than that of light-duty diesel vehicles and gasoline-powered vehicles. Formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acetone and propionaidehyde were the species with the highest emission factors. Main influencing factors for carbonyl emissions were vehicle type, average speed and regulated emission standard, and the impact of vehicle loading was not evident in this study. National emission of carbonyls from diesel vehicles exhaust was calculated for China, 2011, based on both vehicle miles traveled and fuel consumption. Carbonyl emission of diesel vehicle was estimated to be 45.8 Gg, and was comparable to gasolinepowered vehicles （58.4 Gg）. The emissions of formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and acetone were 12.6, 6.9, 3.8 Gg, respectively. The ozone formation potential of carbonyls from diesel vehicles exhaust was 537 mg O3/km, higher than 497 mg O3/km of none-methane hydrocarbons emitted from diesel vehicles.     

基于LCA的新能源轿车节能减排效果分析与评价

新能源汽车在行驶过程中具有节能、环保等优点,在我国目前汽车保有量激增、能耗总量和温室气体排放量不断增大,城市交通对城市空气污染贡献日益增加的情况下,应用和推广新能源汽车被视为替代传统汽车、减缓环境危害的重要工具,但其生产阶段的能耗及污染问题同样不容忽视.因此,本研究运用生命周期评价(LCA)方法,选用美国阿贡国家实验室开发的GREET模型,对混合动力轿车、纯电动轿车、氢燃料电池轿车、E10乙醇汽油轿车4类新能源轿车在车辆制造、燃料及电力生产、行驶、拆解4个阶段的能耗及主要大气污染物排放进行了分析计算,并与传统汽油轿车进行比较.结果表明,同传统汽油轿车相比,4种新能源轿车的全生命周期能耗有不同程度的降低,其中,纯电动轿车在降低能耗方面最具优势.同时,4种新能源轿车全生命周期综合环境影响均低于传统汽油轿车,其中以氢燃料电池轿车的综合环境影响最小.     

大城市机动车污染物排放与控制的情景预测

机动车排放控制措施的有效实施对改善城市大气环境质量具有重要意义. 以北京市为例,利用情景预测法评估2011—2020年各项控制措施对城市机动车常规污染物(CO、NO_x、HC、PM₁₀)的削减效果.建立Gompertz模型并估算动态车龄分布以预测机动车保有量,运用排放因子法估算6种机动车排放控制情景的污染物削减量. 结果表明:与基准情景相比,轻型客车保有量调控情景对CO、HC和PM₁₀的削减效果较显著,在2020年可分别削减7.81%、9.88%和5.78%;排放标准更新情景对4种污染物均能有效削减,尤其是对NO_x和PM₁₀,可分别削减21.19%和24.67%;而淘汰高排放机动车情景的短期削减效果显著,但中、长期效果较差;新能源车推广情景因受到经济、技术条件的限制,削减效果较弱;综合情景考虑了以上所有的削减控制措施并达到最大的削减效果,2020年对CO、NO_x、HC和PM₁₀的削减率分别达到29.45%、42.54%、28.04%和41.30%,与基准年(2010年)相比,分别削减约2.81×105、0.63×104、3.77×104和0.17×104t.      

重型天然气车实际道路排放特征与机理研究

为掌握重型天然气车在实际道路行驶过程中的排放特性,使用便携式车载排放测试系统(PEMS)对2辆国Ⅴ重型天然气车(简称“国Ⅴ车辆”)和2辆国Ⅵ重型天然气车(简称“国Ⅵ车辆”)进行实际道路排放测试,分析了CO和NO_x的排放特征和不同工况下的排放因子. 结果表明:①国Ⅴ车辆在3种代表性道路类型(市区路、市郊路、高速路)下CO和NO_x的高排放区主要分布在中低速区域的加速阶段,而国Ⅵ车辆CO和NO_x的高排放区在市区和市郊路上主要集中在速度大于30 km/h区间,在高速路两种污染物的高排放区分布较为零散. ②根据MOVES模型划分机动车比功率区间(VSP Bin)后发现,国Ⅵ车辆在Bin 11~Bin 18区间,CO和NO_x排放速率基本稳定且处于较低水平;在Bin 21~Bin 28区间,CO和NO_x排放速率均随VSP的增加而逐渐升高. ③国Ⅴ车辆综合工况下CO和NO_x排放因子分别为国Ⅵ车辆的1.1~3.9和3.3~8.2倍,其中,在市区路分别为3.0~25.0和11.3~30.2倍. ④国Ⅴ车辆的NO₂/NO_x(浓度比,下同)远高于国Ⅵ车辆,且在高速路国Ⅴ和国Ⅵ车辆的NO₂/NO_x均最低. 此外,对比不同研究的测试结果发现,本研究国Ⅵ车辆的CO和NO_x排放因子高于其他研究中国Ⅵ重型柴油车. 研究显示,国Ⅵ车辆的CO和NO_x排放因子均低于国Ⅴ车辆,且在市区路下与国Ⅴ车辆差距更明显,因此,推广使用国Ⅵ天然气车,逐步淘汰采用稀薄燃烧技术的天然气车,能有效减少NO_x的排放.      

Developing long-term strategies to reduce energy use and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions—analysis of three mitigation scenarios for iron and steel production in China

We perform a scenario analysis of three strategies for long-term energy savings and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reductions in iron and steel production in China, using a linear optimization modeling framework industry sector energy efficiency modeling (ISEEM). The modeling includes annual projections for one base scenario representing business-as-usual (BAU) and three additional scenarios representing different strategies to reduce annual energy use and CO₂ emissions from 2010 to 2050. Specifically, the three scenarios for cost-optimization modeling include changing the production share (PS), predefining emission reduction (ER) target, and stipulating carbon emission pricing (CP), respectively. While the three strategies are projected to result in similar annual energy savings by approximately 15 % compared to that of the BAU scenario in year 2050, the carbon emission pricing strategy brings about the highest annual energy savings in the medium term (e.g., 2025). In addition, adopting carbon emission pricing strategy will result in the highest emission reduction from BAU with much higher costs, i.e., by 20 % in 2025 and 41 % in 2050, while adopting either PS or ER strategies will result in a moderate level of emission reduction from BAU, i.e., by approximately 4 % in 2025 and 14 % in 2050. The analysis of China’s national strategies to reduce energy use and emissions provides important implications for global mitigation strategies.     

Development of database of real-world diesel vehicle emission factors for China

A database of real-world diesel vehicle emission factors, based on type and technology, has been developed following tests on more than 300 diesel vehicles in China using a portable emission measurement system. The database provides better understanding of diesel vehicle emissions under actual driving conditions. We found that although new regulations have reduced real-world emission levels of diesel trucks and buses significantly for most pollutants in China,NO_x emissions have been inadequately controlled by the current standards, especially for diesel buses, because of bad driving conditions in the real world. We also compared the emission factors in the database with those calculated by emission factor models and used in inventory studies. The emission factors derived from COPERT (Computer Programmer to calculate Emissions from Road Transport) and MOBILE may both underestimate real emission factors, whereas the updated COPERT and PART5 (Highway Vehicle Particulate Emission Modeling Software) models may overestimate emission factors in China. Real-world measurement results and emission factors used in recent emission inventory studies are inconsistent, which has led to inaccurate estimates of emissions from diesel trucks and buses over recent years. This suggests that emission factors derived from European or US-basedmodels will not truly represent real-world emissions in China. Therefore, it is useful and necessary to conduct systematic real-world measurements of vehicle emissions in China in order to obtain the optimum inputs for emission inventory models.     

Economic and health benefits of the co-reduction of air pollutants and greenhouse gases

This study examines the monetary value of social costs—private costs and negative externalities—that could be avoided by energy conservation actions. A novel Air Resource Co-Benefits (ARCoB) model has been developed in this study to assess the comprehensive social benefits of greenhouse gas GHG mitigation policy. The rollback model is used to estimate changes in air pollutant concentrations attributed to the emission reductions. Change in ozone concentration is converted from non-methane hydrocarbons based on the maximum ozone increment reactivity. In addition to saved medical expenditure, years of potential life lost (YPLL) is estimated based on the exposure-response coefficients for mortality and is calculated with abridged life table. Two cases of energy efficiency improvement in different scales are analyzed to estimate the annual co-benefits of abatements of air pollutants and greenhouse gas in 2009: 1) the energy intensity reduction in the industrial sector and 2) energy saving at Taipei Taiwan City Hall. Results indicate the saved energy cost accounted for 66 % and 70 % in the first and second case, respectively, and was a major part of the total benefit from energy conservation. The saved air pollution fee was 7.8–8.5 times lower than the averted health cost of medical expenditure, which was US$10.34 million in the first case, in which there were also averted YPLL of 3,478 person-years or averted deaths of 311 persons per year.     

杭州市“十二五”机动车NOx减排对策研究

以杭州市为研究区域,建立2010年机动车NOx排放清单,预测杭州市“十二五”期间新增机动车NOx排放量,并设定了“现行管理”、“改善方案”和“强化方案”3个机动车管理情景,对NOx的减排潜力进行分析.结果表明,2010年杭州市主城区NOx排放量为4.43万t,其中重型货车所占比例最大,为34.1%. “十二五”杭州市机动车将增加22万辆,新增NOx排放0.197万t.执行“改善方案”—机动车淘汰工程和油品替代工程,可减少NOx排放0.746万t,削减率为16.84%.增加混合动力公交车和新能源汽车的市场占有率可以提高NOx的减排潜力.     

中国国道和省道机动车尾气排放特征

近年来,随着我国机动车保有量的持续增长,机动车排放已成为我国重要的大气污染物来源之一.现有的机动车排放研究多关注城市内的机动车大气污染物排放,针对城市间的大气污染物排放研究较少.我国城市间交通道路主要包括国道和省道,截止至2015年我国国道里程18.53万km、省道里程32.97万km,约占全国等级公路总里程的13%,因此开展我国国道和省道机动车大气污染物排放研究十分重要.本研究基于全国国道和省道交通监测站的年均监测数据,采用环境保护部发布的《道路机动车大气污染物排放清单编制技术指南(试行)》中的指导方法,计算了2015年我国国道和省道机动车的大气污染物排放清单,分析了污染物排放的时空分布特征.结果表明,我国国道和省道公路机动车排放的一氧化碳(CO)、氮氧化物(NO_x)、颗粒物(PM)和碳氢化合物(HC)排放量分别占全国机动车污染物总排放量的4.5%、27.9%、14.4%和7.7%;不同车型对国道和省道机动车大气污染物排放的分担率不同,其中大货车是NO_x、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)的主要来源,摩托车是CO和HC的主要来源;不同道路类型中各车型的大气污染物排放分担率也不同,如高速路上大货车是NO_x、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)的主要来源,普通道路上大客车和大货车是NO_x、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)的主要来源.     

火电厂大气污染物排放标准对区域酸沉降影响的数值模拟

设计了火电厂实施2003版排放标准和2011版排放标准两种排放情景,运用Models-3/CMAQ模型系统分别模拟各情景到2015年的硫、氮沉降量,探讨2011版火电排放标准对我国大陆地区酸沉降的影响.研究表明,2011版火电标准能够有效改善我国的硫沉降状况,相比于实施2003版标准,2011版标准实施后至2015年我国大陆硫沉降总量降低了18.58%,年均硫沉降强度大于3.2t/km2的面积减少了86.40%;2011版火电标准对我国氮沉降状况也起到了一定的改善作用,标准实施后到2015年我国大陆氮沉降总量降低了9.28%,年均氮沉降强度大于4.0t/km2的面积减少了27.27%.     

Linkages between the energy and agricultural sectors: insights from European Union greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios

Over the past decade, the relationship between agricultural and energy markets has strengthened. Traditional energy sources have been increasingly replaced by energy from biomass, and this trend is expected to continue into the future. Consequently, an assessment of the efficiency of bioenergy policies requires a comprehensive analysis of both agricultural and energy markets. The objective of this paper is to analyze the impacts of two detailed European Union (EU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation policies on the utilization of biomass for energy production and the implications for agricultural prices and trade. The consequences of a policy-induced shift from consumption of fossil to renewable energy are assessed under full consideration of interrelations between the energy and agricultural sectors. To this end, we combine an energy system model and an agricultural sector model by establishing a consistent interface between them. Depending on the ambition of the GHG emission reduction scenarios, the results indicate significant price increases. Furthermore, the increase in European demand for energy crops is to a substantial degree covered by additional imports. These results highlight that GHG emission mitigation policies enacted in a large economy like the EU cannot be considered without accounting for indirect effects in the rest of the world. They put the efficiency and also the effectiveness of such policies in general into question.     

城市酒店业的碳排放核算及低碳指标分析

随着中国的快速城市化和服务业的发展,旅游业逐渐成为主要的温室气体排放者之一,酒店面临节能减排的压力并缺乏相关的评价标准.本文建立了生命周期的酒店业碳排放核算框架和低碳指标,并以宁波市为案例城市,对其3种类型的酒店进行碳排放核算和低碳指标的分析.结果表明,能源消费是酒店业最大的碳排放源,占93.5%~94.1%;各类酒店的碳排放量在2013—2015年间有约8.2%~9.2%的减少;从低碳指标看,五星级酒店的单位建筑面积的碳排放最小,单位出租间天数和单位旅客的碳排放最大,而四星级酒店的单位营业额碳排放最小.优化区域电力碳排放水平和酒店的软硬件设施是减少酒店碳排放的有效措施,碳标签是有效的酒店业低碳管理的政策工具.     

《火电厂大气污染物排放标准》实施对燃煤电厂大气汞减排的影响

为评估GB 13223─2011《火电厂大气污染物排放标准》实施对燃煤电厂大气Hg(汞)减排的影响,采用“自下而上”排放因子法,对燃煤电厂大气Hg排放量进行了估算,通过设计不同发展情景,对排放标准实施条件下我国燃煤电厂大气Hg减排量(不含港澳台地区数据,下同)进行了预测. 结果表明:不同能耗情景下,预计2015年燃煤电厂的煤炭消费量为18.5×108~20.3×108 t,2020年煤炭消费量可达19.7×108~22.5×108 t;GB 13223─2011实施后,大气污染控制设施包括ESP(静电除尘器)、FF(袋式除尘器)、WFGD(湿法脱硫)和SCR(选择性催化还原脱硝)的应用比例亟需提高,控制设施面临提效改造,主要控制技术组合SCR+ESP+WFGD在2015年和2020年的应用比例将达到40%、75%;改造后技术组合FF+WFGD、ESP+WFGD、SCR+ESP+WFGD可分别实现90%、85%、80%的脱Hg效率. 由此可为我国燃煤电厂大气Hg排放带来巨大的协同减排潜力,与2010年约119 t的排放水平相比,2015年和2020年在低能耗情景下,我国燃煤电厂大气Hg减排幅度可分别高达38%和39%. 为进一步提高燃煤电厂大气的Hg减排量,建议逐步推广应用活性炭喷射(ACI)等技术.      

水泥工业的废弃物利用与CO2排放控制探讨

水泥工业不仅通过能源利用排放CO2 ,而且还是工业生产工艺过程中CO2 的最大非能源利用排放源。分析了水泥工业的发展现状及其能源消耗状况 ,计算了水泥工业的CO2 排放总量和分途径CO2 排放量 ,介绍了水泥工业的废弃物利用和控制水泥工业CO2 排放方面的一些具体技术 ,提出了一些针对水泥工业的CO2 排放控制措施和新型富氧燃烧技术应用于水泥工业的设想。