Survival and Recruitment of Captive-Reared and Wild-Reared Takahe in Fiordland, New Zealand

Captive rearing for release back into the wild is considered a useful management tool for endangered species because it can potentially increase the rate of recruitment by bypassing the early, high-risk stages in an individual's life history. In evaluating the benefits of captive rearing to conservation, it is important to monitor the survival rate of animals after release, to be sure that they have the skills necessary for survival in the wild. Using radio telemetry, we compared the movement and survival of captive-reared Takahe (  Porphyrio mantelli), a large flightless rail endemic to New Zealand, to wild-reared Takahe in the rugged mountains of Fiordland over a 5–year period. The results indicated that captive-reared birds survived at least as well as wild-reared birds. Survival of wild-reared Takahe up to 1 year of age, which is prior to the release of captive-reared birds, was poor over two winters marked by particularly cold temperatures, which made the benefits of captive rearing more pronounced. Differences in post-release movements and habitat selection of the two groups did not have a detrimental effect on survival rate of captive-reared birds. Although there was no difference in the survival rate of captive-reared females versus males, eight out of nine (89%) surviving females have formed pairs since their release compared with only two of eight (25%) males. This unexpected result suggests there may be a shortage of females in the wild population. We conclude that captive rearing for release back into the wild increases the adult Takahe population in Fiordland.     

Role of Patch Size, Disease, and Movement in Rapid Extinction of Bighorn Sheep

Abstract: The controversy (  Berger 1990, 1999 ; Wehausen 1999 ) over rapid extinction in bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) has focused on population size alone as a correlate to persistence time. We report on the persistence and population performance of 24 translocated populations of bighorn sheep. Persistence in these sheep was strongly correlated with larger patch sizes, greater distance to domestic sheep, higher population growth rates, and migratory movements, as well as to larger population sizes. Persistence was also positively correlated with larger average home-range size ( p = 0.058, n = 10 translocated populations) and home-range size of rams ( p = 0.087, n = 8 translocated populations). Greater home-range size and dispersal rates of bighorn sheep were positively correlated to larger patches. We conclude that patch size and thus habitat carrying capacity, not population size per se, is the primary correlate to both population performance and persistence. Because habitat carrying capacity defines the upper limit to population size, clearly the amount of suitable habitat in a patch is ultimately linked to population size. Larger populations (250+ animals) were more likely to recover rapidly to their pre-epizootic survey number following an epizootic ( p = 0.019), although the proportion of the population dying in the epizootic also influenced the probability of recovery ( p = 0.001). Expensive management efforts to restore or increase bighorn sheep populations should focus on large habitat patches located ≥23 km from domestic sheep, and less effort should be expended on populations in isolated, small patches of habitat.     

Demographic Models and Reality in Reintroductions: Persian Fallow Deer in Israel

Abstract:  Because most reintroduced species are rare, data on their dynamics are scarce. Consequently, reintroduction programs often rely on data from other species or captive populations to project the performance of the reintroduced population in the wild. We compared the reproductive success and survival of a Persian fallow deer ( Dama mesopotamica ) population reintroduced in Israel over the first 5 years of the project with the survival and reproduction parameters estimated while planning the reintroduction. In addition, we compared the actual growth of the wild population with the growth originally projected by a computer model in the original reintroduction program. We monitored 74 radio-collared individuals (57 females and 17 males) released semiannually 1996–2001. Survival during the first year after release was lower than later years (0.90 and 0.82 versus 0.95 and 0.88, for females and males, respectively). Such an impact was not anticipated in the original plan, but overall survival was higher than originally projected. As assumed in the reintroduction program, reproductive success improved significantly with time since release and overall, was higher than expected. The mean number of animals released annually was lower than planned. Overall, the growth of the reintroduced population was slower than projected, but the deviation was close to confidence limits and the pattern similar. After 5 years it appears that the original time frame of 8–10 years for project completion can be met or at worst will cause a 1-year delay. Over the short term of 5 years, projection models in reintroduction programs are useful tools for assessing the sustained use of the breeding core, depicting the dynamics of the population in the wild, providing a relatively accurate time frame for the successful completion of the project, and assessing project success.     

Linking Wild and Captive Populations to Maximize Species Persistence: Optimal Translocation Strategies

Abstract:  Captive breeding of animals is widely used to manage endangered species, frequently with the ambition of future reintroduction into the wild. Because this conservation measure is very expensive, we need to optimize decisions, such as when to capture wild animals or release captive-bred individuals into the wild. It is unlikely that one particular strategy will always work best; instead, we expect the best decision to depend on the number of individuals in the wild and in captivity. We constructed a first-order Markov-chain population model for two populations, one captive and one wild, and we used stochastic dynamic programming to identify optimal state-dependent strategies. The model recommends unique sequences of optimal management actions over several years. A robust rule of thumb for species that can increase faster in captivity than in the wild is to capture the entire wild population whenever the wild population is below a threshold size of 20 females. This rule applies even if the wild population is growing and under a broad range of different parameter values. Once a captive population is established, it should be maintained as a safety net and animals should be released only if the captive population is close to its carrying capacity. We illustrate the utility of this model by applying it to the Arabian oryx ( Oryx leucoryx ). The threshold for capturing the entire Arabian oryx population in the wild is 36 females, and captive-bred individuals should not be released before the captive facilities are at least 85% full.     

Roles of survival and dispersal in reintroduction success of Griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus).

The success of reintroduction programs greatly depends on the amount of mortality and dispersal of the released individuals. Although local environmental pressures are likely to play an important role in these processes, they have rarely been investigated because of the lack of spatial replicates of reintroduction. In the present study, we analyzed a 25-year data set encompassing 272 individuals released in five reintroduction programs of Griffon Vultures (Gyps fulvus) in France to examine the respective roles of survival and dispersal in program successes and failures. We use recent developments in multi-strata capture-recapture models to take into account tag loss in survival estimates and to consider and estimate dispersal among release areas. We also examined the effects of sex, age, time, area, and release status on survival, and we tested whether dispersal patterns among release areas were consistent with habitat selection theories. Results indicated that the survival of released adults was reduced during the first year after release, with no difference between sexes. Taking into account local observations only, we found that early survival rates varied across sites. However when we distinguished dispersal from mortality, early survival rates became equal across release sites. It thus appears that among reintroduction programs difference in failure and success was due to differential dispersal among release sites. We revealed asymmetrical patterns of dispersal due to conspecific attraction: dispersers selected the closest and the largest population. We showed that mortality can be homogeneous from one program to another while, on the contrary, dispersal is highly dependent on the matrix of established populations. Dispersal behavior is thus of major interest for metapopulation restoration and should be taken into account in planning reintroduction designs.     

Effects of life history and reproduction on recruitment time lags in reintroductions of rare plants

Reintroductions are important components of conservation and recovery programs for rare plant species, but their long-term success rates are poorly understood. Previous reviews of plant reintroductions focused on short-term (e.g., ≤3 years) survival and flowering of founder individuals rather than on benchmarks of intergenerational persistence, such as seedling recruitment. However, short-term metrics may obscure outcomes because the unique demographic properties of reintroductions, including small size and unstable stage structure, could create lags in population growth. We used time-to-event analysis on a database of unusually well-monitored and long-term (4–28 years) reintroductions of 27 rare plant species to test whether life-history traits and population characteristics of reintroductions create time-lagged responses in seedling recruitment (i.e., recruitment time lags [RTLs]), an important benchmark of success and indicator of persistence in reintroduced populations. Recruitment time lags were highly variable among reintroductions, ranging from <1 to 17 years after installation. Recruitment patterns matched predictions from life-history theory with short-lived species (fast species) exhibiting consistently shorter and less variable RTLs than long-lived species (slow species). Long RTLs occurred in long-lived herbs, especially in grasslands, whereas short RTLs occurred in short-lived subtropical woody plants and annual herbs. Across plant life histories, as reproductive adult abundance increased, RTLs decreased. Highly variable RTLs were observed in species with multiple reintroduction events, suggesting local processes are just as important as life-history strategy in determining reintroduction outcomes. Time lags in restoration outcomes highlight the need to scale success benchmarks in reintroduction monitoring programs with plant life-history strategies and the unique demographic properties of restored populations. Drawing conclusions on the long-term success of plant reintroduction programs is premature given that demographic processes in species with slow life-histories take decades to unfold.     

Translating effects of inbreeding depression on component vital rates to overall population growth in endangered bighorn sheep

Evidence of inbreeding depression is commonly detected from the fitness traits of animals, yet its effects on population growth rates of endangered species are rarely assessed. We examined whether inbreeding depression was affecting Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae), a subspecies listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Our objectives were to characterize genetic variation in this subspecies; test whether inbreeding depression affects bighorn sheep vital rates (adult survival and female fecundity); evaluate whether inbreeding depression may limit subspecies recovery; and examine the potential for genetic management to increase population growth rates. Genetic variation in 4 populations of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep was among the lowest reported for any wild bighorn sheep population, and our results suggest that inbreeding depression has reduced adult female fecundity. Despite this population sizes and growth rates predicted from matrix-based projection models demonstrated that inbreeding depression would not substantially inhibit the recovery of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep populations in the next approximately 8 bighorn sheep generations (48 years). Furthermore, simulations of genetic rescue within the subspecies did not suggest that such activities would appreciably increase population sizes or growth rates during the period we modeled (10 bighorn sheep generations, 60 years). Only simulations that augmented the Mono Basin population with genetic variation from other subspecies, which is not currently a management option, predicted significant increases in population size. Although we recommend that recovery activities should minimize future losses of genetic variation, genetic effects within these endangered populations-either negative (inbreeding depression) or positive (within subspecies genetic rescue)-appear unlikely to dramatically compromise or stimulate short-term conservation efforts. The distinction between detecting the effects of inbreeding depression on a component vital rate (e.g., fecundity) and the effects of inbreeding depression on population growth underscores the importance of quantifying inbreeding costs relative to population dynamics to effectively manage endangered populations.     

Increased Behavioral Variation and the Calculation of Release Numbers for Reintroduction Programs

Abstract:  Captive populations can exhibit more behavioral variation than their wild counterparts as a result of relaxed selective pressures in the captive environment. This increased variation can translate into decreased survivorship upon reintroduction to native habitats. Data show that captive populations of oldfield mice ( Peromyscus polionotus subgriseus ) exhibit such an increase in variation. Motivated by these results, we developed a series of calculations for a "release ratio" that can be used to determine the number of captive-bred animals needed to compensate for the increased variance. We present calculations of release ratios for behavioral and morphological variables with different distributions and illustrate the functional relationship between release numbers, increased variation, and change in average behavior and morphology. Our calculations indicated that the release of 130–150 captive-bred oldfield mice is equivalent to the release of 100 wildlike animals. Release ratios will vary among species, however, and perhaps among different populations of the same species and should be calculated separately for each situation. Development of the release ratio is the first rigorous effort to incorporate behavioral and morphological changes due to captivity into reintroduction planning. Release ratios will help conservation biologists ensure that the appropriate number of animals is released, thus increasing the success of reintroduction programs.     

Effects of age and sex ratios on offspring recruitment rates in translocated black rhinoceros

Success of animal translocations depends on improving postrelease demographic rates toward establishment and subsequent growth of released populations. Short‐term metrics for evaluating translocation success and its drivers, like postrelease survival and fecundity, are unlikely to represent longer‐term outcomes. We used information theory to investigate 25 years of data on black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) translocations. We used the offspring recruitment rate (ORR) of translocated females—a metric integrating survival, fecundity, and offspring recruitment at sexual maturity—to detect determinants of success. Our unambiguously best model (AICω = 0.986) predicted that ORR increases with female age at release as a function of lower postrelease adult rhinoceros sex ratio (males:females). Delay of first postrelease reproduction and failure of some females to recruit any calves to sexual maturity most influenced the pattern of ORRs, and the leading causes of recruitment failure were postrelease female death (23% of all females) and failure to calve (24% of surviving females). We recommend translocating older females (≥6 years old) because they do not exhibit the reproductive delay and low ORRs of juveniles (<4 years old) or the higher rates of recruitment failure of juveniles and young adults (4–5.9 years old). Where translocation of juveniles is necessary, they should be released into female‐biased populations, where they have higher ORRs. Our study offers the unique advantage of a long‐term analysis across a large number of replicate populations—a science‐by‐management experiment as a proxy for a manipulative experiment, and a rare opportunity, particularly for a large, critically endangered taxon such as the black rhinoceros. Our findings differ from previous recommendations, reinforce the importance of long‐term data sets and comprehensive metrics of translocation success, and suggest attention be shifted from ecological to social constraints on population growth and species recovery, particularly when translocating species with polygynous breeding systems.     

Identifying correlates of success and failure of native freshwater fish reintroductions

Reintroduction of imperiled native freshwater fish is becoming an increasingly important conservation tool amidst persistent anthropogenic pressures and new threats related to climate change. We summarized trends in native fish reintroductions in the current literature, identified predictors of reintroduction outcome, and devised recommendations for managers attempting future native fish reintroductions. We constructed random forest classifications using data from 260 published case studies of native fish reintroductions to estimate the effectiveness of variables in predicting reintroduction outcome. The outcome of each case was assigned as a success or failure on the basis of the author's perception of the outcome and on whether or not survival, spawning, or recruitment were documented during post‐reintroduction monitoring. Inadequately addressing the initial cause of decline was the best predictor of reintroduction failure. Variables associated with habitat (e.g., water quality, prey availability) were also good predictors of reintroduction outcomes, followed by variables associated with stocking (e.g., genetic diversity of stock source, duration of stocking event). Consideration of these variables by managers during the planning process may increase the likelihood for successful outcomes in future reintroduction attempts of native freshwater fish. Identificación de Correlaciones de Éxito y Fracaso de Reintroducciones de Peces de Nativos Agua Dulce     

Releasing Adults versus Young in Reintroductions: Interactions between Demography and Genetics

Abstract:  We integrated genetics and demography into population modeling in the context of species restorations, in which both the origin of released individuals and the management strategy may influence the success of introduction. Through an explicit individual-based simulation approach, we investigated the effects of the age of released individuals by exploring the relative merits of releasing juveniles or adults to establish populations. We included the effect of genetic variability responsible for inbreeding depression and mutational meltdown. Our general analysis uncovered an interaction between the age of founders and the extent of intrapopulation fitness variability, which substantially influenced the efficiency of selection in populations founded by juveniles and had subsequent positive consequences for long-term persistence compared with the case in which adults were released. We then applied the model to the case of the reintroduction of the Griffon Vulture ( Gyps fulvus fulvus ) to southern France, for which post-release data were available. The demographic aspects of this reintroduction were already analyzed and published, suggesting that it is more efficient to release adults than juveniles, despite an observed reduction of demographic parameters following the release of adults. In that context, the inclusion of genetic considerations qualitatively changes the conclusion, predicting reduced long-term extinction risk if juveniles rather than adults are released.     

Persistence of Different-sized Populations: An Empirical Assessment of Rapid Extinctions in Bighorn Sheep

Abstract: Theory and simulation models suggest that small populations are more susceptible to extinction than large populations, yet assessment of this idea has been hampered by lack of an empirical base. I address the problem by asking how long different-sized populations persist and present demographic and weather data spanning up to 70 years for 122 bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) populations in southwestern North America Analyses reveal that: (1) 100 percent of the populations with fewer than 50 individuals went extinct within 50 years; (2) populations with greater than 100 individuals persisted for up to 70 years; and (3) the rapid loss of populations was not likely to be caused by food shortages, severe weather, predation, or interspecific competition These data suggest that population size is a marker of persistence trajectories and they indicate that local extinction cannot be overcome because 50 individuals, even in the short term, are not a minimum viable population size for bighorn sheep.     

Cost‐Effectiveness of Translocation Options for a Threatened Waterbird

Abstract: Reintroduction of captive‐reared animals has become increasingly popular in recent decades as a conservation technique, but little is known of how demographic factors affect the success of reintroductions. We believe whether the increase in population persistence associated with reintroduction is sufficient to warrant the cost of rearing and relocating individuals should be considered as well. We examined the trade‐off between population persistence and financial cost of a reintroduction program for Crested Coots (Fulica cristata). This species was nearly extirpated from southern Europe due to unsustainable levels of hunting and reduction in amount and quality of habitat. We used a stochastic, stage‐based, single‐sex, metapopulation model with site‐specific parameters to examine the demographic effects of releasing juveniles or adults in each population for a range of durations. We parameterized the model with data from an unsuccessful reintroduction program in which juvenile captive‐bred Crested Coots were released between 2000 and 2009. Using economic data from the captive‐breeding program, we also determined whether the strategy that maximized abundance coincided with the least expensive strategy. Releasing adults resulted in slightly larger final abundance than the release of nonreproductive juveniles. Both strategies were equally poor in achieving a viable metapopulation, but releasing adults was 2–4 times more expensive than releasing juveniles. To obtain a metapopulation that would be viable for 30 years, fecundity in the wild would need to increase to the values observed in captivity and juvenile survival would need to increase to almost unity. We suggest that the most likely way to increase these vital rates is by increasing habitat quality at release sites.     

A novel holistic framework for genetic‐based captive‐breeding and reintroduction programs

Research in reintroduction biology has provided a greater understanding of the often limited success of species reintroductions and highlighted the need for scientifically rigorous approaches in reintroduction programs. We examined the recent genetic‐based captive‐breeding and reintroduction literature to showcase the underuse of the genetic data gathered. We devised a framework that takes full advantage of the genetic data through assessment of the genetic makeup of populations before (past component of the framework), during (present component), and after (future component) captive‐breeding and reintroduction events to understand their conservation potential and maximize their success. We empirically applied our framework to two small fishes: Yarra pygmy perch (Nannoperca obscura) and southern pygmy perch (Nannoperca australis). Each of these species has a locally adapted and geographically isolated lineage that is endemic to the highly threatened lower Murray–Darling Basin in Australia. These two populations were rescued during Australia's recent decade‐long Millennium Drought, when their persistence became entirely dependent on captive‐breeding and subsequent reintroduction efforts. Using historical demographic analyses, we found differences and similarities between the species in the genetic impacts of past natural and anthropogenic events that occurred in situ, such as European settlement (past component). Subsequently, successful maintenance of genetic diversity in captivity—despite skewed brooder contribution to offspring—was achieved through carefully managed genetic‐based breeding (present component). Finally, genetic monitoring revealed the survival and recruitment of released captive‐bred offspring in the wild (future component). Our holistic framework often requires no additional data collection to that typically gathered in genetic‐based breeding programs, is applicable to a wide range of species, advances the genetic considerations of reintroduction programs, and is expected to improve with the use of next‐generation sequencing technology.     

Early onset of vegetation growth vs. rapid green-up: impacts on juvenile mountain ungulates

Seasonal patterns of climate and vegetation growth are expected to be altered by global warming. In alpine environments, the reproduction of birds and mammals is tightly linked to seasonality; therefore such alterations may have strong repercussions on recruitment. We used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a satellite-based measurement that correlates strongly with aboveground net primary productivity, to explore how annual variations in the timing of vegetation onset and in the rate of change in primary production during green-up affected juvenile growth and survival of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), Alpine ibex (Capra ibex), and mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in four different populations in two continents. We indexed timing of onset of vegetation growth by the integrated NDVI (INDVI) in May. The rate of change in primary production during green-up (early May to early July) was estimated as (1) the maximal slope between any two successive bimonthly NDVI values during this period and (2) the slope in NDVI between early May and early July. The maximal slope in NDVI was negatively correlated with lamb growth and survival in both populations of bighorn sheep, growth of mountain goat kids, and survival of Alpine ibex kids, but not with survival of mountain goat kids. There was no effect of INDVI in May and of the slope in NDVI between early May and early July on juvenile growth and survival for any species. Although rapid changes in NDVI during the green-up period could translate into higher plant productivity, they may also lead to a shorter period of availability of high-quality forage over a large spatial scale, decreasing the opportunity for mountain ungulates to exploit high-quality forage. Our results suggest that attempts to forecast how warmer winters and springs will affect animal population dynamics and life histories in alpine environments should consider factors influencing the rate of changes in primary production during green-up and the timing of vegetation onset.     

Longitudinal monitoring of neutral and adaptive genomic diversity in a reintroduction

Restoration programs in the form of ex-situ breeding combined with reintroductions are becoming critical to counteract demographic declines and species losses. Such programs are increasingly using genetic management to improve conservation outcomes. However, the lack of long-term monitoring of genetic indicators following reintroduction prevents assessments of the trajectory and persistence of reintroduced populations. We carried out an extensive monitoring program in the wild for a threatened small-bodied fish (southern pygmy perch, Nannoperca australis) to assess the long-term genomic effects of its captive breeding and reintroduction. The species was rescued prior to its extirpation from the terminal lakes of Australia's Murray-Darling Basin, and then used for genetically informed captive breeding and reintroductions. Subsequent annual or biannual monitoring of abundance, fitness, and occupancy over a period of 11 years, combined with postreintroduction genetic sampling, revealed survival and recruitment of reintroduced fish. Genomic analyses based on data from the original wild rescued, captive born, and reintroduced cohorts revealed low inbreeding and strong maintenance of neutral and candidate adaptive genomic diversity across multiple generations. An increasing trend in the effective population size of the reintroduced population was consistent with field monitoring data in demonstrating successful re-establishment of the species. This provides a rare empirical example that the adaptive potential of a locally extinct population can be maintained during genetically informed ex-situ conservation breeding and reintroduction into the wild. Strategies to improve biodiversity restoration via ex-situ conservation should include genetic-based captive breeding and longitudinal monitoring of standing genomic variation in reintroduced populations.     

Progress in Restoration of the Mauritius Kestrel

In the 1970s, the Mauritius Kestrel ( Falco punctatus ) was the most endangered bird of prey in the world, at one time with only two known pairs surviving in the remnant native forest of the Black River Gorges (ca. 4,000 ha). At the end of the 1991–1992 breeding season, a minimum of 30 nesting pairs and more than 170 individuals were distributed in four separate forested areas, thanks mainly to manipulation of the reproductive potential of the wild pairs, to captive propagation, and to reintroduction (restocking). Since 1984, 139 young have been reared from 618 eggs laid by captive kestrels, and 147 from 265 wild eggs incubated and hatched in the laboratory; 235 young kestrels have been released on Mauritius by hacking and fostering. Adjustments in feeding and nesting habits of kestrels hacked and released outside the Black River Gorges in areas dominated by exotic vegetation and agriculture have allowed these kestrels to survive and reproduce in an array of previously unused habitats. Now that the kestrels have been released from dependence on the remnant and dying native forest, a viable population of more than 100 nesting pairs should be achievable in a few more years.     

Founder Effects,Inbreeding, and Loss of Genetic Diversity in Four Avian Reintroduction Programs

Abstract: The number of individuals translocated and released as part of a reintroduction is often small, as is the final established population, because the reintroduction site is typically small. Small founder and small resulting populations can result in population bottlenecks, which are associated with increased rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, both of which can affect the long‐term viability of reintroduced populations. I used information derived from pedigrees of four monogamous bird species reintroduced onto two different islands (220 and 259 ha) in New Zealand to compare the pattern of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity among the reintroduced populations. Although reintroduced populations founded with few individuals had higher levels of inbreeding, as predicted, other factors, including biased sex ratio and skewed breeding success, contributed to high levels of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity. Of the 10–58 individuals released, 4–25 genetic founders contributed at least one living descendent and yielded approximately 3–11 founder–genome equivalents (number of genetic founders assuming an equal contribution of offspring and no random loss of alleles across generations) after seven breeding seasons. This range is much lower than the 20 founder–genome equivalents recommended for captive‐bred populations. Although the level of inbreeding in one reintroduced population initially reached three times that of a closely related species, the long‐term estimated rate of inbreeding of this one population was approximately one‐third that of the other species due to differences in carrying capacities of the respective reintroduction sites. The increasing number of reintroductions to suitable areas that are smaller than those I examined here suggests that it might be useful to develop long‐term strategies and guidelines for reintroduction programs, which would minimize inbreeding and maintain genetic diversity.     

Effects of Climate Change on Population Persistence of Desert-Dwelling Mountain Sheep in California

Abstract:  Metapopulations may be very sensitive to global climate change, particularly if temperature and precipitation change rapidly. We present an analysis of the role of climate and other factors in determining metapopulation structure based on presence and absence data. We compared existing and historical population distributions of desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) to determine whether regional climate patterns were correlated with local extinction. To examine all mountain ranges known to hold or to have held desert bighorn populations in California and score for variables describing climate, metapopulation dynamics, human impacts, and other environmental factors, we used a geographic information system (GIS) and paper maps. We used logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning to assess the relationship among these variables and the current status of each population (extinct or extant). Parameters related to climate—elevation, precipitation, and presence of dependable springs—were strongly correlated with population persistence in the twentieth century. Populations inhabiting lower, drier mountain ranges were more likely to go extinct. The presence of domestic sheep grazing allotments was negatively correlated with population persistence. We used conditional extinction probabilities generated by the logistic-regression model to rank native, naturally recolonized, and reintroduced populations by vulnerability to extinction under several climate-change scenarios. Thus risk of extinction in metapopulations can be evaluated for global-climate-change scenarios even when few demographic data are available.     

A systematic review of snake translocations to identify potential tactics for reducing postrelease effects

Advancements in the field of reintroduction biology are needed, but understanding of how to effectively conduct translocations, particularly with snakes, is lacking. We conducted a systematic review of snake translocation studies to identify potential tactics for reducing postrelease effects. We included studies on intentional, human-mediated, wild–wild, or captive–wild translocations to any location, regardless of motive or number of snakes translocated. Only studies that presented results for at least 1 of 4 outcomes (movement behavior, site fidelity, survival, or population establishment) were included. We systematically searched 4 databases for published studies and used 5 methods to search the gray literature. Our search and screening criteria yielded 121 data sources, representing 130 translocation cases. We quantified the association between 15 translocation tactics and short-term translocation outcomes by calculating odds ratios and used forest plots to display results. Snake translocations involved 47 species (from mainly 2 families), and most were motivated by research, were monitored for at least 6 months, occurred in North America, and took place from the 1990s onward. The odds of a positive snake translocation outcome were highest with release of captive reared or juvenile snakes, release of social groups together, delayed release, provision of environmental enrichment or social housing before release, or minimization of distance translocated. The odds of a positive outcome were lowest when snakes were released early in their active season. Our results do not demonstrate causation, but outcomes of snake translocation were associated with 8 tactics (4 of which were strongly correlated). In addition to targeted comparative studies, we recommend practitioners consider the possible influence of these tactics when planning snake translocations.