Mineral reserves under price uncertainty

National reporting organizations and regulatory bodies for the minerals and mining sector are requiring publicly reported Ore-Reserve estimates to take account of uncertainties. Whilst methodologies that account for physical uncertainty appear relatively well developed, methodologies which can take account of economic uncertainty appear much less so. To counter this shortfall, we present an efficient and general methodology which can quantify the effect of price uncertainty within reserve estimates, providing both the expected reserve size and the associated distribution (box whisker plot). This statistical information can be used by interested parties to understand precisely where the reserve risks lie, which we highlight in a worked example.     

The oil industry along the Atlantic coast of Cameroon: Assessing impacts and possible solutions

While the oil industry along the Atlantic coast of Cameroon has made important contributions to the national economy, this has been accompanied with adverse environmental impacts. There has been significant pollution from oil drilling, refinery waste, oil spillage, gas and flaring. After discussing these impacts, this paper argues that prevailing regulations are inadequate and need overhauling. It proposes that cleaner production requires:

(i)

specific laws to protect dwellers in the neighbourhood of oil refineries, filling stations, service stations and pipelines;     

Mineral economics: Overview of a discipline

Mineral economics is the academic discipline that investigates and promotes understanding of economic and policy issues associated with the production and use of mineral commodities. While its origins can be traced back at least 200 years to the writings of David Ricardo and other early Classical economists, it emerged as a separate academic field only after World War II and then primarily in the United States. As a separate academic discipline, its roots are found in mining schools that needed to consider the milieu in which minerals are sold. While geologists, mining engineers, and others with technical backgrounds were largely responsible for creating the first stand-alone mineral-economics programs, ultimately trained economists became participants as well. Moreover, even after the rise of mineral-economics departments, most of the research in the field continued and continues to be carried out in other academic units, including traditional economic departments and engineering schools, as well as in government agencies, nonprofit research organizations, consulting firms, and international organizations.     

Social responsibility and resource extraction: Are Chinese oil companies different?

In order to meet China’s rapidly increasing demand for oil, Chinese oil companies have been investing in oil production around the world. This article addresses one specific aspect of the more generalized fears expressed about China’s increasing demand for natural resources which is the impact that its oil companies will have on the corporate social responsibility (CSR) movement. In doing so, it limits its analysis to the three main Chinese oil companies: the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and their investments in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Elusive Partnerships: Gas extraction and CSR in Bangladesh

This paper examines Chevron's programme of CSR at a gas field in Bangladesh. Whilst apparently building partnerships in the villages that surround the Bibiyana Gas Field, we suggest that the corporation remains detached from the local population via their community development programmes and employment policies. This contradiction is submerged by ideas and practices within global development discourse which celebrate the disconnection and disengagement of donors via the rhetoric of sustainability. Chiming with development praxis and the neo-liberal values which underscore it by stressing self-reliance, entrepreneurship and ‘helping people to help themselves’, the corporation's Community Engagement Programme does little to meet the demands of local people who hoped for employment and long term investment, a form of connection that is discordant to discourses of self-reliance and sustainability.     

A SWOT analysis of environmental management practices in Greek Mining and Mineral Industry

Over the last two decades, mining and mineral exploration companies have adopted various environmental management practices in response to society’s pressure for better environmental protection. The literature highlights a number of benefits and challenges for companies adopting environmental management practices with the Greek Mining and Mineral Industry (GMMI) facing similar issues. In order to analyze the challenges faced by the GMMI, a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis was conducted, which examined the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats faced by the industry when adopting environmental management practices. The analysis prescribes policy recommendations both for the government and industry which, if adopted, could facilitate improved environmental performance.     

Corporate Social Responsibility in the extractive industries: Experiences from developing countries

This paper introduces a special issue on ‘Corporate Social Responsibility in the extractive industries: experiences from developing countries’. Drawing upon case study analysis from Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, the papers in this issue broaden understanding of how multinational mining and oil and gas companies have embraced the CSR challenge and responded to criticisms of their performance in developing countries. This paper provides an introduction to the debate on CSR in the extractive industries in developing countries, reviewing the key issues examined on this subject to date.     

Private capital: What impedes its entry into China's minerals industry

The paper commences with an analysis of the nature and status of private capital investment in the minerals industry in China. Based on the analysis, the authors examine the main barriers in terms of the mineral rights market, industry access and investment security that impede the participation of private capital into exploration and development of China's mineral resources. The discussion addresses how to encourage the participation of private capital into mining investment and it concludes that it is of significant importance to ensure the soundness of mineral rights market, impartiality of industry access, and security of mineral rights.     

Using exploration expenditures to assess the climate for mineral investment

Countries that rely on private investors to find and exploit their mineral resources need reliable indicators of their investment attractiveness. This study explores the use of exploration expenditures for this purpose, focusing primarily on Chile.     

The evolution of the Canadian mining industry: The role of regulatory punctuation

In this study, we analyze the evolution of Canada's mining industry from 1929 to 2006, focussing on the determinants of the number of firms in the industry and why this number changed over that period. Most empirical studies of industry evolution have focused on manufacturing industries that share similar structural characteristics. Perhaps because of this, extant models of industry evolution tend to ignore industry-specific and national-specific factors that can cause atypical trajectories, that is, heterogeneous industry evolution. Initial inspection of the Canadian mining industry shows that it is atypical in that it exhibits “negative skew” over time in the number of firms rather than the typical “positive skew.” We review two dominant theoretical approaches to industry evolution: the density-dependence theory and variants of industrial organization economics. We also consider possible sources of industry evolution heterogeneity, focussing particularly on “regulatory punctuation”. Using Canadian mining data, we find that the traditional models do not fully explain the changes in population size in Canada's mining industry. As a result, we introduce a number of hybrid models. The results from these hybrid models suggest that Canadian-specific regulatory punctuations, particularly the introduction of significant new taxes, environmental legislation, and incentives have shaped the trajectory of mining firm participation.     

The supply behaviour of state mining enterprises: A case study of the Jordanian phosphate industry

An important feature of export-oriented production in mineral-rich developing countries for almost three decades after 1960 was the growth of state-owned enterprises. For the phosphate industry, this was reflected in the expansion of companies such as Office Cherifienne des Phosphate (OCP) in Morocco and the Jordan Phosphate Mines Company (JPMC). There was a strategic importance of the industry for these nations and the large capital outlays necessary for phosphate and fertilizer production expansion often required considerable government assistance because of the perceived high risks of private investment in the industry.     

The great metals boom: A retrospective

The metals boom that ran from 2003 to 2008 represented the most powerful and sustained such boom since the Second World War. As the boom gathered momentum, the notion began to emerge that commodities were at the beginning of a multi-year ‘super cycle’ driven by demand growth in the emerging economies and, in particular, China. The persistence of the boom helped sustain this belief right up to the point when metal prices collapsed in the second half of 2008. Looking back over the period, much of what occurred can be readily explained by the unusual strength of the demand shock and the lagged response of the supplying industry, with prices receiving an additional boost from the activities of commodity investors. There is, however, some evidence to suggest that the combination of downward pressure on the costs of manufactured goods and upward pressure on the costs of mineral commodities which accompanied the boom marked a shift in the terms of trade between these two product groups. This in turn seems to have brought to an end the sustained decline in real terms metal prices that occurred in the years following the boom of the 1970s. In sum, the key structural change taking place may not have been on the demand side of the industry as the super cyclists maintained, but on the supply side.     

State mineral production taxes and mining law reform

Fuel and leasable minerals mined in the United States have historically been subject to federal royalties while locatable minerals have not. In recent years there have been multiple attempts to alter this policy and subject locatable minerals to federal royalties as well; most recently the preliminary 2012 Obama budget included a gross royalty on hard-rock mining on public lands. This paper analyzes the issue of imposing such federal royalties from both a legal and economic perspective. From a legal perspective, it is argued that the state of western property rights precludes royalties on currently extant claims so revenues from a royalty would not be realized for many years. From an economic perspective, it is argued that the effect on revenue would be smaller than one might anticipate due to such a royalty crowding out state levies or encouraging vertical disintegration on the part of mining firms to avoid much of the burden of the royalty.     

An uncertainty based multi-criteria ranking system for open pit mining cut-off grade strategy selection

Cut-off grade strategy (COGS) is a concept that directly influences the financial, technical, economical, and environmental issues in relation to the exploitation of a mineral resource. Despite the simple definition of cut-off grade, the COGS problem is one of the complex and complicated problems in the mine planning process. From the optimization point of view, the COGS with an objective of maximizing the present value of future cash flows is a non-linear and a non-convex problem that even in its deterministic form can be solved using approximate optimization methods. This optimization problem will also be more complex and complicated under uncertainty conditions. This paper proposes an uncertainty based multi-criteria ranking system to investigate the problem of COGS selection considering metal price and geological uncertainties. The proposed system aims at selection of the best COGS among technically feasible alternative COGSs under uncertainty circumstances. Our developed system is based on integrating metal price and geological uncertainties as well as operating flexibility to close the mine early. We incorporate this operating flexibility into the proposed system using a Monte Carlo based real options (RO) valuation model. For this purpose, in addition to the expected value, other risk criteria are considered to rank the alternatives. These risk criteria include abilities of strategies in producing extra profits, minimizing losses, and achieving the predefined goals of the production. In this study, the technically possible COGSs are generated using the Lane comprehensive algorithm. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, we utilize data of an Iranian gold mine. Results show that the proposed system outperforms conventional methods in the sense that it shows significantly lower average mis-ranking than the other methods and also selects a strategy with a higher value. The sensitivity analysis of the proposed system relative to the gold price shows that the system is highly dependent on the parameters of the stochastic process used to model the evolution of the metal price. Therefore, special consideration should be given in estimating stochastic process parameters.     

Evaluating mine plans under uncertainty: Can the real options make a difference?

Over the last few years, many studies have presented the real options valuation (ROV) as a promising technique of valuing natural resource investments under conditions of uncertainty. Apart from the common conclusion that the ROV is better than the conventional net present value (NPV) method in integrating the value of management flexibility and proper handling of cash flows risk, there is a lack of procedures for testing the usefulness and advantages of the ROV over the static NPV method in practice. Arguably, it is not yet clear whether the ROV can deal with the complexity of mining projects and whether it can really be applied to make decisions that improve project value.     

Development on whose terms?: CSR discourse and social realities in Papua New Guinea's extractive industries sector

The emergence of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in the extractive industries represents a bid to legitimize the sector after decades of environmental disasters and the trampling of indigenous rights. But whilst the rise in CSR has meant safer technologies and better stakeholder engagement, there is little evidence of any real socio-economic development at the grassroots. This paper examines the uneasy relationship existing between the strategic ‘business model’ of CSR and the brand of development it delivers. Using evidence from two multinational extractive industries in Papua New Guinea, we show how weaknesses in CSR practice come from greater emphasis on meeting global ‘performance standards’ than on the specificities of the social contexts in which strategies are implemented. These weaknesses, we argue, lead to ill-conceived and inappropriate development programmes that generate inequality, fragmentation, and social and economic insecurity. We conclude that greater engagement with affected communities will facilitate the development of more mutually beneficial and appropriate CSR strategies.