食物全生命周期温室气体排放特征分析

本文从食物全生命周期环节、温室气体类型、温室气体直接排放源三方面系统分析了1996-2010年我国食物全生命周期温室气体排放特征。从食物生产和消费角度,确定我国饮食结构的转变、化肥高投入的传统农业生产模式、食物损失浪费三大趋势是导致食物全生命周期温室气体排放增长的主要因素。并提出转变食物消费方式,实现营养均衡膳食结构,减少不必要的肉类消费;生产方式上逐步实现从传统农业向有机农业的转变;加强宣传引导,最大限度减少食物餐桌浪费,同时加强食物物流环节基础设施建设,将分销配销过程的损耗降至最低。通过食物生产和消费方式的转变与技术进步相结合的方式,构建出适于我国的绿色、低碳、可持续的农业生产和食物消费模式。     

农田温室气体净排放研究进展

农业是温室气体排放的主要排放源之一,农业温室气体减排对全球温室气体排放具有重要贡献,研究农田温室气体净排放潜力亦具有重要现实意义.本文阐述了农田温室气体净排放的涵义,并归纳总结了耕作方式、施肥、水分管理、间套作等农业措施对农田土壤有机碳(SOC)含量、农田土壤N2O和CH4、农田生产物资的使用所造成的温室气体(主要为CO2、N2O和CH4)排放的影响,结果表明:保护性耕作总体能提高表层SOC含量,减少CH4排放,但减少农田土壤N2O排放的研究尚存在一定的争议,耕作方式亦影响投入,从而影响温室气体的排放;施肥(特别是配施)能提高SOC含量.施氮肥越多,N2O排放量越大,而CH4主要受有机物料的影响较大;水分对减少N2O和CH4排放有相反作用,需综合进行平衡管理;不同的作物品种、间套作模式或促进或减少温室气体排放.此外,本文指出了国外在该领域的研究注重从系统角度考虑农田温室气体排放,而国内的研究则非常少,提出我国农田温室气体净排放可作为未来研究的一个重点,并对未来研究内容进行了初步归纳总结.     

重庆市温室气体排放清单研究与核算

城市化进程所带来的大量能源消费和温室气体排放已成为制约城市健康快速发展的瓶颈因素,亟需进行定量核算和分析。开展温室气体清单研究对节能减排和低碳城市建设具有重要的理论和实践意义。本文以重庆市为案例,通过清单方法分析主要温室气体排放源和碳汇,考虑主要能源活动、工业、废弃物处置、农业、畜牧业、湿地过程和林业碳汇,核算排放总量和强度,剖析重庆温室气体排放结构和现状。结果显示:1997-2008年重庆市温室气体排放总量呈现出上升趋势,2008年比1997年增长了2.31倍,其中增长幅度较大的是一次能源消费过程、外购电力和工业非能源过程。此外,随着温室气体排放量的增加,单位产值温室气体排放量却呈现下降的趋势,反映重庆市温室气体排放控制取得了一定效果。最后根据重庆市温室气体排放结果进行分析,提出了改变能源结构和工业结构、提高能效和加强"森林重庆"建设等政策建议,为重庆市转型低碳经济发展提供参考。     

中国农业温室气体排放:现状及挑战

该文从农业生产过程和化肥、能源等投入方面计算了中国农业温室气体排放.2009年,中国农业总计排放温室气体158 557.3万t CO2当量,比1980年增长52.03％,年均增长1.46％.其中,CH4占总排放的25％,N2O占总排放的52％,CO2占总排放的23％.按来源分析,在2009年排放的温室气体中,水稻种植排放14 264.45万t,占9％;畜牧生产排放42 709.94万t,占26.94％;土壤排放47 457.81万t,占29.93％;化肥、能源、农药、农膜等投入引起的排放54 125.11万t,占34.14％.2009年农业GDP排放的温室气体为2.98 kg/元,粮食排放的温室气体为1.5 kg/kg.在2008年,牛肉排放的温室气体为28.54 kg/kg,羊肉为15.5 kg/kg,猪肉为1.49kg/kg,禽肉为0.54 kg/kg,牛奶为1.04 kg/kg,禽蛋为0.83 kg/kg.由于技术进步和生产效率提高,单位粮食、肉类和牛奶排放的温室气体都有较大幅度降低.对于种植单季粮食的土地,CO2交易价格为80元/t将使23.27％的耕地退出粮食生产;当CO2交易价格为100元/t时,这一比例高达63.31％.对于种植双季粮食的土地,CO2交易价格为130- 140元/t时,将有50％的耕地退出粮食生产.由于中国粮食生产利润率过低,CO2较低的价格使严重影响粮食生产面积和产量.     

汽车共享对城市温室气体排放的影响

近年来我国居民出行的机动化需求越来越高,而严峻的能源环境挑战使得我们不能按照发达国家的千人小汽车拥有水平来发展机动化。汽车共享是一种新兴的绿色机动化服务模式,既可满足成员的机动化出行需求又可降低私人小汽车保有量和出行量,并会因此减少车辆使用产生的温室气体排放。在上海浦东联洋社区、虹口山阴路社区和天山虹桥社区进行居民问卷调查,统计分析结果表明:拥有车辆数多的家庭加入汽车共享的意愿略低于无车家庭,在被调查者中仅有10%左右的人愿意因为汽车共享放弃现有车辆。当通勤距离超过8 000 m时,被调查者对汽车共享的需求下降,而达到14 000 m以后,对汽车共享的需求会再次上升。当汽车共享的出行费用分别为20元/h,25元/h和30元/h时,日常采购出行加入汽车共享的意愿分别为75.28%,60.89%和36.54%;机场出行加入汽车共享的意愿分别为79.34%,67.16%和46.86%;休闲出行加入汽车共享的意愿分别为85.24%,65.69%和44.28%。计算271份样本的汽车共享效应,得到汽车行驶里程年折减量为228 520 km,费用折减每年1 465 185元,CO2排放年折减61 035 kg。因此,在我国城市中积极引入汽车共享这种环境友好的用车服务,可以解决一部分居民的机动化需求,由此产生的潜在效应对减少城市温室气体排放有显著意义。     

基于IPCC方法的湖南省温室气体排放核算及动态分析

为温室气体减排提供决策参考,基于IPCC和中国《省级温室气体清单编制指南》,核算了1995~2011年湖南省温室气体排放,并对其动态作了分析。结果表明: 2011年湖南省温室气体排放总量为594.7 Mt CO₂e,主要温室气体CO₂、CH₄和N₂O的排放量分别为471.3、100.8和22.6 Mt CO₂e,占排放总量的比例依次为79.25%、16.95%和3.79%。能源消费是温室气体排放的主要来源,2011年的排放量达421.5 Mt CO₂e,占排放总量的70.87%。林业呈现为碳汇效应,2011年的值为18.2 Mt CO₂e,消解温室气体排放量的3.06%。研究时段内温室气体从241.7 Mt CO₂e增长为594.7 Mt CO₂e,年均增长率达9.12%,可分为3个阶段,其中,1995~1999年波动降低,1999~2003年缓慢上升,2003~2011年快速增长,变化率依次为-3.32%、4.69%和17.37%。能源利用效率明显提高,万元GDP温室气体排放量由10.64 t CO₂e/万元减少到2.93 t CO₂e/万元,年均减少7.75%,但人均温室气体排放量由3.65 t CO₂e增加到8.07 t CO₂e,年均增长5.08%,减排压力较大。     

海南省农业温室气体排放核算研究

本文从水稻种植、农用地化肥施用、畜牧生产等方面,采用《省级温室气体清单编制指南(试行)》推荐的方法,核算2007—2012年海南省农业温室气体排放量和排放强度,全面剖析海南省农业温室气体排放的结构和现状。结果显示:12007—2012年海南省农业温室气体排放量呈逐年上升的趋势,2012年比2007年增长了18.32%;单位农业产值温室气体排放量2012年比2007年下降了约44.39%。2农用地N2O和稻田CH4的排放量约分别占排放总量的50%和22%,即种植业是最主要的来源。3农业发展规模较大的海口、文昌、儋州排放总量居全省前列,但由于其农业现代化水平相对较高,其单位产值温室气体排放量仅处于全省平均水平。最后,根据对核算结果的分析,提出了合理灌溉、推进测土配方施肥、科学饲养畜禽等建议,对加速海南低碳省建设具有重要的现实意义。     

重庆市温室气体排放系统动力学研究

在全球气候变暖和快速城市化的背景下,开展城市温室气体减排研究十分迫切。重庆作为中国五大中心城市之一和西部唯一的直辖市,其协调经济发展和节能减排的实现模式对广大西部地区具有重要示范意义。本研究从社会经济发展的内部结构出发,以经济和人口增长导致的能源消费为核心,构建重庆市温室气体排放的系统动力学模型。研究中考虑不同投资率下的高、中、低三种经济发展模式,并在此基础上设置节能和低碳情景,探求节能水平提高、能源结构改善和碳汇能力增强对未来重庆温室气体排放的影响。模拟结果表明,产业能耗水平降低即节能情景,是重庆市温室气体减排的主要途径,对保证2020年中国单位GDP二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%-45%目标的实现具有一定借鉴意义。最后本文在产业结构、能源消费、碳汇增加等方面针对重庆未来低碳经济发展提出对策建议。     

四大牧区畜禽业温室气体排放估算及影响因素分解

畜牧业作为重要的产业部门,在满足人们生活物质要求的同时,成为全球温室气体排放的主要源头。本文以我国四大牧区为研究对象,量化测算其2001-2011年畜禽温室气体排放量,并运用LMDI模型对其影响因素进行定量分解,并针对性的提出畜禽温室气体减排的对策建议。结果表明:内蒙古、西藏和青海牧区的畜禽温室气体排放整体呈现增加趋势,其分别由2001年的1 609.81万t、1 230.64万t和1 019.94万t增加到2011年的2 617.71万t、1 350.10万t和1 065.43万t,新疆牧区则呈现先增加后下降的趋势,由2001年的1 666.37万t增加到2006年的2 057.79万t,随后又递减到2011年的1 419.91万t,四大牧区的年均增长率分别为6.26%、0.97%、0.45%和-1.48%;经济水平的提升是四大牧区畜禽温室气体排放的最主要因素,相比基期2001年,其使得四大牧区分别产生了123.64%、384.41%、1 715.50%和279.49%的温室气体排放增量;经济效率对四大牧区畜禽温室气体排放具有较强的抑制作用,对四大牧区畜禽温室气体的减排效应分别达到了73.08%、199.04%、955.66%和503.25%,农业产业结构因素和劳动力因素对四大牧区畜禽温室气体排放的影响因地而异,其中农业产业结构因素对四大牧区畜禽温室气体排放的影响度分别为415.32万t、-154.96万t、48.76万t和30.72万t,劳动力因素的影响度分别为83.05万t、52.98万t、-348.96万t和274.32万t。最后,本文基于研究结论,总体上从规模养殖、科学养殖和清洁养殖三方面提出促进四大牧区畜禽温室气体减排的对策建议,并针对各个牧区的实际情况提出一些可操作的符合区域畜牧业发展实际的对策。     

崇明县农业温室气体排放核算

对崇明县农业2005～2009年所排放的CO2、CH4和N2O的量进行了核算,核算结果显示2005～2009年崇明县农业温室气体总量（折算为CO2）由1 038 527 t上升到1 076 993 t,上升比例为37%。其中,CO2和CH4的排放量分别从2005年的460 178 t和12 039 t下降到2009年的441 705 t和11 686 t,下降比例分别为40%和29%,但N2O的排放量则由2005年的1 050 t上升到2009年的1 258 t,上升比例为198%。N2O排放的快速增长和其巨大的增温潜力是影响崇明温室气体排放总量变化趋势的重要因素。核算结果表明,影响崇明农业温室气体排放的主要因素包括化肥使用强度过大和使用效率过低、粪便管理系统效率不高、农产品销售网络不完善等。未来崇明农业应主要从提高可再生能源利用比例和能源利用效率、实施精确施肥以降低化肥使用强度、提高畜禽粪便资源化利用率以及改善剩余农产品销售网络等方面来减少温室气体排放,从而实现可持续的低碳农业     

土地利用变化及林业温室气体排放核算制度与方法实证

土地利用变化及林业(LUCF)活动是生态固碳最重要手段。研究确定LUCF温室气体排放核算制度和方法,对平衡碳排放、开展全国统一碳市场交易具有重要基础作用。在综述LUCF温室气体核算理论和方法基础上,借鉴IPCC指南和《省级温室气体清单编制指南(试行)》推荐的基本方法,构建了符合地域特色的LUCF温室气体排放核算制度和方法。采用2014年第九次国家森林资源清查数据,以全国低碳试点省陕西省为实证对象,初步核算了陕西省LUCF温室气体的净排放量,并从排放能力、排放结构和空间特征等角度揭示了陕西省LUCF温室气体的排放特征。结果显示:(1)2014年,陕西省LUCF温室气体净吸收量为1 698.42万t CO_2e,其中森林及其他木质生物质碳贮量净吸收1 852.67万t CO2e,森林转化净排放154.25万t CO_2e。(2)乔木林等优势树种,是陕西省LUCF温室气体排放中重要的固碳源(吸收源)。(3)陕南地区是重要固碳贡献区,陕北地区森林固碳能力较差。最后,针对LUCF温室气体排放核算制度和方法不够完善、森林固碳能力差异较大、区域固碳分化严重等问题,提出了健全温室气体核算制度、平衡森林资源空间分布、改善固碳树种结构等加强陕西省LUCF活动应对气候变化统计核算制度和能力建设的基本措施。     

Efficient energy management strategies for hybrid electric vehicles using shuffled frog-leaping algorithm

This paper proposes two novel approaches for the problem of energy management in hybrid electric vehicles. Shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is a recently proposed population-based optimization algorithm. This paper first formulates energy management as an optimization problem and optimizes the problem using SFLA. Then the paper makes use of SFLA as a training algorithm to train artificial neural network (ANN) and this SFLA-trained ANN is used for energy management. Interestingly, the proposed approaches of this paper are found to be robust and more efficient than contemporary approaches.     

Energy management in hybrid electric vehicles using optimized radial basis function neural network

This paper deals with energy management in hybrid electric vehicles. Use of radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) for the problem of energy management gains importance in the present decade. Use of genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) as optimization algorithms for parameter estimation is also well known. However, none of the researchers in the area tried to use GA and PSO as training algorithms for the problem. Hence in this paper, we propose two novel methods, based on RBFNN. The difference between RBFNN-based approaches in the literature and those used in this paper is the use of GA and PSO (i.e. optimising algorithms) as training algorithm to train RBFNNs. Interestingly, it is seen that the proposed approaches of this paper outperform RBFNN-based approaches in the literature with traditional training.     

Research on energy structure and development strategy from 2010 to 2015 in Qingdao,China

With the fast development of Qingdao’s economy, the energy consumption is increasing significantly. In this paper, based on the energy statistic data in Qingdao area from 2010 to 2015, energy consumption structure was analyzed, indicating the existence of single energy structure; that is, coal, petroleum, and natural gas are dominant in the area. Thus, some issues between energy supply and demand have been brought. To solve present problem, we put forward to formulate the development strategy of energy, including energy savings, the exploitation of petroleum and natural gas resources, the development and utilization of renewable energy sources, and energy policy. It is worthy of mentioning that, according to the geological investigation, the shale gas may be abundant in Qingdao area and the gas resource amount estimated is huge. This is our first finding, important for developing unconventional energy and adjusting the energy structure in Qingdao in the future. Therefore, we suggest that Qingdao government should take action to develop local new energy resources for satisfying the energy demand.     

中国畜禽温室气体排放时空变化及影响因素研究

畜禽业是关系国计民生的重要产业,在满足居民生活物质需求的同时,其生产过程中所伴随的温室气体排放问题已成为不容忽视的环境问题。本文基于LMDI模型系统分析了1991-2013年中国畜禽温室气体排放时空变化及其因素贡献。结果表明:1从时间维度来看,1991-2013年,中国畜禽温室气体排放经历了先快速上升后稳定上升再波动下降的变化特征,总体呈上升趋势。经济效应对畜禽温室气体排放促进作用最大,而强度效应的抑制作用最大,其次是劳动力效应和结构效应。2期间,经济效应促进作用的累计贡献呈指数增长,而强度效应抑制作用的累计贡献呈倒"U",劳动力效应和结构效应抑制作用也不断加强。3从空间维度来看,中国畜禽温室气体排放的区域集中度较高,四川、河南、山东、云南和内蒙古等省(区、市)畜禽温室气体排放一直位居全国前列。4省域各效应作用方向和程度差异显著,四川、青海和云南强度效应抑制作用较大,辽宁、吉林和黑龙江抑制作用较小;山东、四川和黑龙江结构效应抑制作用显著,新疆和青海促进作用明显;四川、河南、内蒙古、山东、云南、湖南和河北经济效应促进作用较大,天津、上海、海南和北京促进作用较小;四川、湖北、江苏和山东劳动力效应抑制作用显著,新疆、黑龙江和内蒙古促进作用明显。最后,基于研究结论,为未来中国畜禽温室气体减排空间发展策略提出了几点建议。     

Estimation of the impact of oil palm plantation establishment on greenhouse gas balance

Estimates of emissions indicate that if tropical grassland is rehabilitated by oil palm plantations, carbon fixation in plantation biomass and soil organic matter not only neutralises emissions caused by grassland conversion, but also results in the net removal of about 135 Mg carbon dioxide per hectare from the atmosphere. In contrast, the emission from forest conversion clearly exceeds the potential carbon fixation of oil palm plantings. Forest conversion on mineral soils to promote continued oil palm mono cropping causes a net release of approximately 650 Mg carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare, while the emission from peat forest conversion is even higher due to the decomposition of drained peat and the resulting emission of carbon oxide and nitrous oxide. The conversion of one hectare of forest on peat releases over 1,300 Mg carbon dioxide equivalents during the first 25-year cycle of oil palm growth. Depending on the peat depth, continuous decomposition augments the emission with each additional cycle at a magnitude of 800 Mg carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare. The creation of ‘flexibility mechanisms’ such as the clean development mechanism and emission trading in the Kyoto Protocol could incorporate plantations as carbon sinks in the effort to meet emission targets. Thus, for the oil palm industry, grassland rehabilitation is an option to preserve natural forest, avoid emissions and, if the sequestered carbon becomes tradable, an opportunity to generate additional revenue. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

中国新能源汽车产业的政策变迁与政策工具选择

伴随着新能源汽车产业的发展,中国政府有关新能源汽车产业政策也在不断地跟进。梳理相关产业政策变迁之中的内在逻辑,分析政策工具的选择是一项极为重要的任务。本文基于政策框架理论及其分析方法,对有关新能源汽车研究文献进行了分析,将关注重点从政策的评价转到从历史的角度关注新能源政策变迁的推动力上。政策变迁是与其动力因素密切相关的,这些动力因素又总是体现为政策变迁的主导力量。在中国新能源汽车产业的政策变迁历程中,其主导力量或政策制定的主要影响因素不断变化,中国新能源汽车的发展政策也可以分为政府主导、汽车厂商主导和消费者主导的三个阶段。政策变迁体现了政策本身的社会价值。基于中国新能源汽车发展的各种不同政策要素及其相关性,本文发现,在中国新能源汽车产业的组织性政策工具、管制性政策工具、经济诱因性政策工具、信息性政策工具和资源性政策工具这五个方面,经济诱因性工具和信息性工具应该是推动新能源汽车产业的关键工具,组织性和管制性工具只适用于产业化初期,后期应逐渐减少,而自愿性工具在新能源汽车产业市场完善前不提倡使用,在该产业市场得到完善后可以成为政府的选择之一。经过研究发现,在新能源汽车产业发展过程中,政府应注意自身的作用范围,适当处理市场与政府规制的便捷,降低交易成本,提高规制效率,是未来产业化政策工具选择应重点关注的环节。同时,政府必须在政策上致力于技术创新,把通过技术创新推动新能源汽车产业发展作为重要的政策目标。     

Research on Energy Consumption Evaluation Combined with Endogenous Pollutants of China Based on Entropy-Topsis

Abstract

The traditional evaluation of energy consumption mostly introduces pollutants as a negative economic output into evaluating model, ignoring the configuration relationship among the energy input, pollutants as well as economic output. This paper considers the overall process of energy consumption and constructs an evaluation indication system of energy consumption level combined with endogenous pollutants based on entropytopsis method, then makes empirical research. The results show that China’s energy consumption level presents a fluctuant rise in the premise of emission. Energy consumption level depends on the relationship among energy input, pollutants and economic output. The raise of energy consumption level should not increase economic output and reduce pollutant emission at the expense of environment. Finally, the whole paper puts forward the countermeasures to improve the overall level of energy consumption.     

Research on Energy Consumption Evaluation Combined with Endogenous Pollutants of China Based on Entropy-Topsis

The traditional evaluation of energy consumption mostly introduces pollutants as a negative economic output into evaluating model,ignoring the configuration relationship among the energy input,pollutants as well as economic output.This paper considers the overall process of energy consumption and constructs an evaluation indication system of energy consumption level combined with endogenous pollutants based on entropytopsis method,then makes empirical research.The results show that China’s energy consumption level presents a fluctuant rise in the premise of emission.Energy consumption level depends on the relationship among energy input,pollutants and economic output.The raise of energy consumption level should not increase economic output and reduce pollutant emission at the expense of environment.Finally,the whole paper puts forward the countermeasures to improve the overall level of energy consumption.     

The impacts of local farming system development trajectories on greenhouse gas emissions in the northern mountains of Vietnam

The northern mountain region of Vietnam (NMR) is dominated by swidden/fallow farming systems. The fallow land of these systems is populated by small trees and bushes. Since the 1960s the government of Vietnam has tried to limit or stop swiddening and replace it with permanent upland agricultural fields, paddy, fruit trees and animal husbandry. Discussion in the policy debate and literature focuses on the impacts these changes have on local people’s livelihoods. There have been no attempts to evaluate the impact of these changes on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper examines the realities of current farming system changes taking place at the hamlet level and other changes that could take place due to government land use policies and extension programs. The paper answers the following questions: How could farming system changes influence net GHGs? Which farming system changes in the NMR, the trajectories of changes that are currently observed or those that would be followed if farmers adhere strictly to government policies and programs, will have a greater affect on the GHG contributions from agriculture in the region? Could ‘clean development mechanism’ (CDM) projects make a difference in the profitability of the pathways mentioned? Results show: (1) if farming systems in the NMR continue along currently observed change trajectories there will be increases in GHG emissions; (2) if the NMR farming systems change according to government policies and programs there will be a net sequestration of carbon in regrowing vegetation during the initial 20 years; (3) over the longer term, in areas where systems change to fit government policies, increased GHG emissions from other changes in the farming systems (e.g. increased paddy and increased pig raising in sties) will overtake the amounts of carbon sequestered in vegetation; (4) CMD projects only make a difference if (a) maximum biomass potential of regrowing fallow can be reached; (b) a favourable baseline is chosen; (c) timing and length of the accounting period is correct; and (d) farmers do not take compensatory action in response to government policies. Given these conditions it does not appear that currently envisioned clean development mechanisms would be beneficial to farmers in the NMR.