Integrated Traffic and Emission Simulation: a Model Calibration Approach Using Aggregate Information

Environmental impacts of road traffic have attracted increasing attention in project-level traffic planning and management. The conventional approach considers emission impact analysis as a separate process in addition to traffic modeling. This paper first introduces our research effort to integrate traffic, emission, and dispersion processes into a common distributed computational framework, which makes it efficient to quantify and analyze correlations among dynamic traffic conditions, emission impacts, and air quality consequences. A model calibration approach is particularly proposed when on-road or in-lab instantaneous emission measurements are not directly available. Microscopic traffic simulation is applied to generate dynamic vehicle states at the second-by-second level. Using aggregate emission estimation as standard reference, a numerical optimization scheme on the basis of a stochastic gradient approximation algorithm is applied to find optimal parameters for the dynamic emission model. The calibrated model has been validated on several road networks with traffic states generated by the same simulation model. The results show that with proper formulation of the optimization objective function, the estimated dynamic emission model can capture the trends of aggregate emission patterns of traffic fleets and predict local emission and air quality at higher temporal and spatial resolutions.     

集合数值预报系统在上海市空气质量预测预报中的应用研究

介绍了上海市世博环境空气质量集合数值预报系统的框架,分析了各模式在上海市空气质量预报及排放源污染贡献测算中的应用情况,提出开发多种预报手段、实施集合预报是提高城市空气质量预报准确率的发展方向。     

Preparation and Validation of Gridded Emission Inventory of Criteria Air Pollutants and Identification of Emission Hotspots for Megacity Delhi

Delhi is one of the many megacities struggling with punishing levels of pollution from industrial, residential, and transportation sources. Over the years, pollution abatement in Delhi has become an important constituent of state policies. In the past one decade a lot of policies and regulations have been implemented which have had a noticeable effect on pollution levels. In this context, air quality models provide a powerful tool to study the impact of development plans on the expected air pollution levels and thus aid the regulating and planning authorities in decision-making process. In air quality modeling, emissions in the modeling domain at regular interval are one of the most important inputs. From the annual emission data of over a decade (1990–2000), emission inventory is prepared for the megacity Delhi. Four criteria pollutants namely, CO, SO₂, PM, and NO _x are considered and a gridded emission inventory over Delhi has been prepared taking into account land use pattern, population density, traffic density, industrial areas, etc. A top down approach is used for this purpose. Emission isopleths are drawn and annual emission patterns are discussed mainly for the years 1990, 1996 and 2000. Primary and secondary areas of emission hotspots are identified and emission variations discussed during the study period. Validation of estimated values is desired from the available data. There is a direct relationship of pollution levels and emission strength in a given area. Hence, an attempt has been made to validate the emission inventory for all criteria pollutants by analyzing emissions in various sampling zones with the ambient pollution levels. For validation purpose, the geographical region encompassing the study area (Delhi) has been divided into seven emission zones as per the air quality monitoring stations using Voronoi polygon concept. Dispersion modeling is also used for continuous elevated sources to have the contributing emissions at the ground level to facilitate validation. A good correlation between emission estimates and concentration has been found. Correlation coefficient of 0.82, 0.77, 0.58 and 0.68 for CO, SO₂, PM and NO _x respectively shows a reasonably satisfactory performance of the present estimates.     

空气质量数值模型的构建及应用研究进展

综述了近年来国内外空气质量模型的发展历程、空气质量数值模型构建的关键技术以及应用研究。指出了目前空气质量数值预报及应用主要面临气象条件,尤其是大气边界层模拟、大气污染物排放源和大气物理化学过程等问题。提出,应当通过规范化制作和完善排放源清单数据,建立统一的排放源分析标准,提高排放源数据的准确性;多向发展观测手段,加大监测密度和频率,并进行实验室化学分析,提出适合我国的大气物理化学机制。就空气质量模式而言,对模式方案进行优化,以及使用气象、卫星资料同化等技术手段,将其与观测相结合,构建监测与预报系统相结合的统一体系,应用于多平台。     

长三角区域空气质量数值预报系统及其在重大活动保障中的应用

2014年起,上海市围绕城市及长三角区域空气质量预测预报和重污染预警需求,搭建了长三角区域空气质量数值预报系统。该系统综合应用了模式参数化方案比选、排放清单耦合处理、大气化学资料同化、大数据集合订正等关键技术,集合模式PM2. 5和O3小时浓度偏差为-10%~10%,提升了区域PM2. 5和O3浓度模拟效果。该系统实现了污染在线源解析和多排放情景模拟等功能的业务应用,应用于2018年首届中国国际进口博览会保障中,为上海市及长三角区域空气质量业务预报和重大活动保障提供了业务产品支撑。     

Using the polychaete Arenicola marina to determine toxicity and bioaccumulation of PAHS bound to sediments

Transportation system has contributed significantly to the development of human civilization; on the other hand it has an enormous impact on the ambient air quality in several ways. In this paper the air and noise pollution at selected sites along three sections of National Highway was monitored. Pakistan National Highway Authority has started a Highway Improvement program for rehabilitations and maintenance of National highways to improve the traffic flows, and would ultimately improve the air quality along highways. The ambient air quality and noise level was monitored at nine different locations along these sections of highways to quantify the air pollution. The duration of monitoring at individual location was 72 h. The most of the sampling points were near the urban or village population, schools or hospitals, in order to quantify the air pollution at most affected locations along these roads. A database consisting of information regarding the source of emission, local metrology and air quality may be created to assess the profile of air quality in the area.     

The Spatial-Scale Effect of an Atmospheric Environmental Impact Assessment in Regional Strategic Environmental Assessment (R-SEA)

When evaluating the atmospheric environment in regional strategic environment assessment (R-SEA), the variation and choice of the spatial scale have a substantial influence on the conclusions of the assessment. In this study, we used numerical simulation to investigate the spatial-scale effect. Two varying spatial extents and two varying spatial details of pollutant emission data (emission inventories in this case) were provided for numerical modeling, and output distributions of atmospheric pollutants at different air pollution levels were compared. The results show that the resolution and spatial range of data collection do indeed influence the atmospheric prediction and assessment results in R-SEA. The spatial-scale effect is more significant under the air pollution condition than under excellent and good air quality conditions. A comparison of varying spatial extents of emission inventory shows that narrowing the prediction area to a local scale is more conducive to identifying the impact of local pollution sources. A comparison of varying spatial details of emission inventory indicates that a higher resolution is favorable for identifying local high concentrations of pollutants and their locations.     

Treatment of Urban Areas within a Regional Transport Model of Sulphur and Nitrogen Oxides

The air pollution transport model UGEM (The University of Greenwich Evaluation Model) has been developed to evaluate medium-range transport and deposition of sulphur and oxidised nitrogen from all types of sources of emissions in the UK and to estimate their average annual deposition and concentrations across the UK. The model has been tested for its predictions against the available measurements.This study was focused on a possibility of applying the UGEM model to the assessment of air quality on a local scale. One parameter in the model is crucial, the local deposition fraction. The effect of this parameter on quality of the model predictions has been studied for different scales of UGEM output, such as the whole territory of the UK, a rural region and an urban area.The results of the study show that the magnitude of the local deposition fraction should be different for each grid square to reach the best agreement of predictions of concentrations with measurements. Applying a local value of the parameter to each grid square will improve the model predictions of the concentrations in urban areas in particular and will not affect the quality of model predictions of the wet deposition.     

Air quality assessment of Estarreja, an urban industrialized area, in a coastal region of Portugal

Despite the increasing concern given to air quality in urban and industrial areas in recent years, particular emphasis on regulation, control, and reduction of air pollutant emissions is still necessary to fully characterize the chain emissions–air quality–exposure–dose–health effects, for specific sources. The Estarreja region was selected as a case study because it has one of the largest chemical industrial complexes in Portugal that has been recently expanded, together with a growing urban area with an interesting location in the Portuguese coastland and crossed by important road traffic and rail national networks. This work presents the first air quality assessment for the region concerning pollutant emissions and meteorological and air quality monitoring data analysis, over the period 2000–2009. This assessment also includes a detailed investigation and characterization of past air pollution episodes for the most problematic pollutants: ozone and PM10. The contribution of different emission sources and meteorological conditions to these episodes is investigated. The stagnant meteorological conditions associated with local emissions, namely industrial activity and road traffic, are the major contributors to the air quality degradation over the study region. A set of measures to improve air quality—regarding ozone and PM10 levels—is proposed as an air quality management strategy for the study region.     

Assessment of the Status of Urban Air pollution And Its Impact on Human Health in the City of Kolkata

Air pollution has significant effects on exacerbation of asthma, allergy and other respiratory diseases. Like many other magacities in the world the ambient air quality of Kolkata is also being deteriorated day by day. Automobile exhausts and certain industrial pollutants produce O₃ by photochemical reactions. The particulate matter, particularly less than 10 μ in size, can pass through the natural protective mechanism of human respiratory system and plays an important role in genesis and augmentation of allergic disorders. Sources of air pollution in the area and the unique problem arising out of the emission from the vehicles, industries, etc. have been described. Ambient air quality was monitored along with micrometeorological data and the results are discussed. The status of air pollution in the area has been evaluated and a questionnaire survey was conducted to estimate the allergic symptoms and exposure to assess the respiratory disorders. The data are analysed to evaluate the critical situation arising out of the emission of air pollutants and the impact on human health due to respirable diseases (RDs) to middle class sub-population (activity-wise) in the area are assessed. A strategic air quality management plan has been proposed. For the mitigation of air pollution problems in the city, the different measures to be adopted to maintain the balance between sustainable development and environmental management have been discussed.     

Simulation of PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> concentration patterns for a 2010 traffic scenario in Bologna,Italy

Three state of the art traffic–emission–dispersion models dealing with particulate matter have been tested and validated over the Bologna metropolitan area with 2001 data and a future scenario has been developed in order to estimate expected PM concentrations in 2010. The modelling system is composed by a traffic model (VISUM) evaluating vehicle fluxes as a function of mobility demand and road network in the area, an emission model (Trefic) estimating pollutants emitted in atmosphere as a function of vehicle fluxes amount and composition and of environmental conditions and a dispersion model (ADMS) evaluating PM concentrations on the area, given the meteorological variables. The three models compose a cascade sequence and results of the previous one feed the next one. PM concentrations computed by the model suite for the town of Bologna, in northern Italy, for the reference period (January 2001) have been compared with air quality stations measurements suggesting the modelling system being especially suitable for evaluating traffic induced PM. Qualitative and quantitative changes in the circulating vehicle fleet have been supposed in order to obtain a realistic scenario for year 2010. Forecasted concentrations have been then compared with limits fixed by current EU legislation for particulate matter.     

A GIS-based Study for Optimizing the Total Emission Control Strategy in Lanzhou City

A geographic information system (GIS)-based approach with spatial analysis advantages was developed to optimize the total emission control scheme on air pollution in Lanzhou, combined with Models-3 modeling system and a linear programming model. GIS system is mainly used for establishing a multifactor assessment model to quantitatively divide environmental functional zone, and also used for selecting control sites in linear programming model. The results show that most of the urban area belongs to the second type of function, which is 122.8 km² occupying about 76.5% and the third type of about 32.9 km² occupying 20.5%. To reach the air quality up to the national standard in the entire control area, some large-emission factories need to cut emissions from 19% to 27%. For small but low-emission height sources, the cut may be as high 40%. The improvement of the ecological environment is urgently needed for controlling the background particle pollution in Lanzhou city.     

Organic Liquids Storage Tanks Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCS) Emissions Dispersion and Risk Assessment in Developing Countries: The Case of Dar-Es-Salaam City, Tanzania

The emission estimation of nine volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from eight organic liquids storage tanks companies in Dar-es-Salaam City Tanzania has been done by using US EPA standard regulatory storage tanks emission model (TANKS 4.9b). Total VOCs atmospheric emission has been established to be 853.20 metric tones/yr. It has been established further that petrol storage tanks contribute about 87% of total VOCs emitted, while tanks for other refined products and crude oil were emitting 10% and 3% of VOCs respectively. Of the eight sources (companies), the highest emission value from a single source was 233,222.94 kg/yr and the lowest single source emission value was 6881.87 kg/yr. The total VOCs emissions estimated for each of the eight sources were found to be higher than the standard level of 40,000 kg/yr per source for minor source according to US EPA except for two sources, which were emitting VOCs below the standard level. The annual emissions per single source for each of the VOCs were found to be below the US EPA emissions standard which is 2,000~kg/yr in all companies except the emission of hexane from company F1 which was slightly higher than the standard. The type of tanks used seems to significantly influence the emission rate. Vertical fixed roof tanks (VFRT) emit a lot more than externally floating roof tanks (EFRT) and internally floating roof tanks (IFRT). The use of IFRT and EFRT should be encouraged especially for storage of petrol which had highest atmospheric emission contribution. Model predicted atmospheric emissions are less than annual losses measured by companies in all the eight sources. It is possible that there are other routes for losses beside atmospheric emissions. It is therefore important that waste reduction efforts in these companies are directed not only to reducing atmospheric emissions, but also prevention of the spillage and leakage of stored liquid and curbing of the frequently reported illegal siphoning of stored products. Emission rates for benzene, toluene, and xylene were used as input to CALPUFF air dispersion model for the calculation of spatial downwind concentrations from area sources. By using global positioning system (GPS) and geographical information system (GIS) the spatial benzene concentration contributed by organic liquid storage tanks has been mapped for Dar-es-Salaam City. Highest concentrations for all the three toxic pollutants were observed at Kigamboni area, possibly because the area is located at the wind prevailing direction from the locations of the storage tanks. The model predicted concentrations downwind from the sources were below tolerable concentrations by WHO and US-OSHA. The highest 24 hrs averaging time benzene concentration was used for risk assessment in order to determine maximum carcinogenic risk amongst the population exposed at downwind. Established risk for adult and children at 2.9×10^-3 and 1.9×10^-3 respectively, are higher than the acceptable US-EPA risk of 1×10^-6. It is very likely that the actual VOCs concentrations in some urban areas in Tanzania including Dar-es-Salaam City are much higher than the levels reported in this study when other sources such as petrol stations and motor vehicles on the roads are considered. Tanzania Government therefore need to put in place: an air quality policy and legislation, establish air quality guidelines and acquire facilities which will enable the implementation of air quality monitoring and management programmes.     

高精度船舶排放清单在城市空气质量管理中的应用

上海港船舶大气污染物排放对城市空气质量的影响不容小觑。基于船舶AIS数据,高精度船舶大气污染物排放清单得以建立并应用。2018年11月5—10日召开的第一届中国国际进口博览会期间,在气象条件不利的情况下,通过提前实施船舶排放控制区政策等措施,使船舶单日SO_x排放量下降28.5%,一次PM_2.5排放量下降25.5%,全市空气质量达到了保障要求。     

基于OPAQ的城市空气质量预报系统研究

空气质量预测在国内的关注度日益提高,传统的空气质量预测系统通常运用数值化学传输模型,利用物理方程来计算污染物的扩散、沉降和化学反应。而化学传输模型的预测准确性很大程度上需要依赖详细的污染源排放信息和气象模型的输出结果。基于统计模型的OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统,采用人工神经网络算法,可预测各污染物的日均值或日最大值。并对北京空气质量预报的结果进行了评价,OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统对空气质量预测的准确性较高,能够利用较低的计算资源得到较为准确的预测结果。与数值预报相比,OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统不需要大量的基础数据作为输入,可弥补数值预报的不足,并成为数值预报的有力补充。     

Simulation of Urban-Scale Air Pollution Patterns in Luxembourg: Contributing Sources and Emission Scenarios

The aim of this study is to investigate the air pollution situation in an urban area in southwestern Luxembourg and to simulate annual NO₂ and PM₁₀ concentrations in response to changes in meteorological conditions and emissions using a Gaussian dispersion model. Simulations are carried out for the years 1998–2006. Emission scenarios related to road transport and nonindustrial combustion are performed in order to predict changes of air pollution levels. Road transport is by far the most important local emission source in the study area. Scenarios with more stringent emission standards for vehicles, less traffic, and fewer heavy-duty vehicles lead to reductions of NO_x and primary PM₁₀ emissions. As a result, the annual NO₂ concentrations are decreasing in most parts of the study area and are below the European annual limit value of 40 μg?m^?3. In contrast, a scenario with increased use of wood pellets for domestic heating shows an increase in urban PM₁₀ concentration. The year-to-year variability of meteorological conditions accounts for the same magnitude of absolute NO₂ and PM₁₀ concentration changes as the emission scenarios. The comparison with measurements located in the study area shows that the model is able to predict urban-scale annual average air pollution. The proposed application results show that the model can be appropriate for policy-driven air quality management and planning queries.     

Model Assessment of Air-Pollution in Prague

Results of relatively simple gaussian dispersion model are presented. This model, developed in the beginning of this decade, is suitable mainly for determination of spatial distributions of annual mean concentrations of such kinds of air-pollution as sulphur dioxide (SO₂), mixture of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) or suspended particulate matter (SPM) from all types of emission sources located within the city - point sources, line sources and area sources. Model has been used in years 1994, 1996 and 1998 to assess the air-pollution distributions of the above mentioned kinds in the Prague area and the development of the air quality state. It contributed to the decision making process when possible impact of some changes in traffic system or in system of domestic heating, for example, has been investigated. In this contribution, behaviour of sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and mixture of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) ground concentration distributions are analyzed with respect to changing emission situation in Prague in recent years. Results show that SO₂ ground concentration level decreases mainly due to changes in local heating methods and type of fuel used. Different trend can be seen in NO_x ground concentrations thanks to rapid increase in the traffic density.     

NARX神经网络模型在昆明市环境空气质量预测中的应用

神经网络模型作为一种重要的手段被广泛应用于数学计算、物理建模、水文模拟、环境预测、人工智能等研究领域。为验证神经网络模型在高原山地城市环境空气质量预测中的作用,以昆明市环境空气自动监测站气象因子和污染物浓度数据为基础,构建NARX神经网络模型,对污染物浓度进行预测。结果表明,基于NARX神经网络建立的预测模型具有很强的非线性动态描述能力,能够对环境空气6参数做出较为准确的预测,其预测浓度相对误差显著低于CMAQ、NAQPMS空气质量数值模式以及LSTM统计模型预测结果。优化后的NARX神经网络对污染物浓度变化趋势的预测较其他几个模式更为敏感。     

Use of a MM5–CAMx–PSAT Modeling System to Study SO2 Source Apportionment in the Beijing Metropolitan Region

A coupled MM5–CAMx air quality modeling system was used to simulate SO₂ concentrations in Beijing, China during the heating season. Particulate matter source apportionment technology was employed to investigate the apportionment of SO₂ sources in the study area. Comprehensive analysis of the industry and region revealed that the most important SO₂ contributors were publicly and privately supplied heating emission sources and other industry emission sources from the urban areas of Beijing, with 66.1?% of the emission source contribution ratio. Four SO₂ emission reduction scenarios based on our SO₂ source apportionment research were established to assess the potential for improving the SO₂ air quality in Beijing during the heating season. By weighing the desired SO₂ improvement, the availability of technology, and economic considerations, a suitable SO₂ reduction plan was able to be recommended for Beijing city.     

上海市工业区大气污染预警监测信息平台研究与设计

根据上海市工业区大气污染排放特征,在构建大气特征污染监控网络的基础上,搭建了工业区大气污染预警监测信息平台,并研究了适用于大气特征污染自动站的通信传输规范,确保数据联网和应用。平台设置了大气质量监控、大气数据管理、污染源一厂一档、大气质量分析评价、污染源溯源分析、应急监测数据管理、智能移动终端查询等7个子系统,可为上海市工业区大气污染预警和管控提供实时监测数据。