MULTIVARIATE TREND TESTING OF LAKE WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Multivariate methods of trend analysis offer the potential for higher power in detecting gradual water quality changes as compared to multiple applications of univariate tests. Simulation experiments were used to investigate the power advantages of multivariate methods for both linear model and Mann-Kendall based approaches. The experiments focused on quarterly observations of three water quality variables with no serial correlation and with several different intervariable correlation structures. The multivariate methods were generally more powerful than the univariate methods, offering the greatest advantage in situations where water quality variables were positively correlated with trends in opposing directions. For illustration, both the univariate and multivariate versions of the Mann-Kendall based tests were applied to case study data from several lakes in Maine and New York which have been sampled as part of EPA's long term monitoring study of acid precipitation effects.     

NONPARAMETRIC TEST PERFORMANCE FOR TRENDS IN WATER QUALITY WITH SAMPLING DESIGN APPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: In this paper four nonparametric tests for monotonic trend detection are compared with respect to their power and accuracy. The importance of comparing powers at equal empirical significance levels rather than nominal levels is stressed. Therefore, an appropriate graphical method is presented. The effect of the sampling frequency is also assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and a trajectory representation that visualizes the dynamics of the trade-off between the type I and type II errors. These methods are applied to compare four nonparametrical tests (seasonal Mann. Kendall, modified seasonal Mann-Kendall, covariance eigenvalue and covariance inversion) under several conditions. It is concluded with respect to the power that it is not worthwhile for the modified seasonal Mann-Kendall test applied to the AR(1) process considered in this paper to increase the sampling frequency from monthly to biweekly for detecting a monotonic trend of 5 percent, 10 percent, or 15 percent of the process variance. Under these conditions the seasonal Mann-Kendall test is highly liberal, while the covariance inversion and the covariance eigenvalue test are conservative. This research is situated in the development of an efficient sampling design for the Flemish water quality monitoring network.     

SELECTING TREND TESTS FOR WATER QUALITY SERIES WITH SERIAL CORRELATION AND MISSING VALUES1

ABSTRACT: The use of nonparametric tests for monotonic trend has flourished in recent years to support routine water quality data analyses. The validity of an assumption of independent, identically distributed error terms is an important concern in selecting the appropriate nonparametric test, as is the presence of missing values. Decision rules are needed for choosing between alternative tests and for deciding whether and how to pre-process data before trend testing. Several data pre-processing procedures in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall tau and the Seasonal Kendall test (with and without serial correlation correction) are evaluated using synthetic time series with generated serial correlation and missing data. A composite test (pre-testing for serial correlation followed by one of two trend tests) is evaluated and was found to perform satisfactorily.     

Water Quality Changes as a Result of Coalbed Methane Development in a Rocky mountain Watershed1

Abstract: Coalbed methane (CBM) development raises serious environmental concerns. In response, concerted efforts have been made to collect chemistry, salinity, and sodicity data on CBM produced water. However, little information on changes of stream water quality resulting from directly and/or indirectly received CBM produced water is available in the literature. The objective of this study was to examine changes instream water quality, particularly sodicity and salinity, due to CBM development in the Powder River watershed, which is located in the Rocky Mountain Region and traverses the states of Wyoming and Montana. To this end, a retrospective analysis of water quality trends and patterns was conducted using data collected from as early as 1946 up to and including 2002 at four U.S. Geological Survey gauging stations along the Powder River. Trend analysis was conducted using linear regression and Seasonal Kendall tests, whereas, Tukey’s test for multiple comparisons was used to detect changes in the spatial pattern. The results indicated that the CBM development adversely affected the water quality in the Powder River. First, the development elevated the stream sodicity, as indicated by a significant increase trend of the sodium adsorption ratio. Second, the development tended to shrink the water quality differences among the three downstream stations but to widen the differences between these stations and the farthest upstream station. In contrast, the development had only a minor influence on stream salinity, as indicated by that the stream electrical conductivity exhibited either no trend or a marginally significant positive trend. Hence, the CBM development is likely an important factor that can be managed to lower the stream sodicity. The management may need to take into account that the effects of the CBM development were different from one location to another along the Powder River.     

A spatial-statistical approach for modeling the effect of non-point source pollution on different water quality parameters in the Velhas river watershed--Brazil

In this article, a methodology for evaluating the effect of land use/land cover on the quality of nearby stream water in a semiarid environment is described and tested on a large watershed in Southeastern Brazil. The approach aims at identifying the width of the riparian area having the strongest effect on different water quality parameters. The land use/land cover data were generated from remotely sensed data while water quality point data were supplied by a government agency. Testing was conducted for both the rainy and dry seasons in an effort to understand the direct effect of surface runoff. The approach combines cartographic modelling using a geographical information system (GIS) and statistics to establish the strength of the relationship between water quality, land use and the distance from the stream. Results suggest a strong relationship between land use/land cover and turbidity, nitrogen and fecal coliforms. They also suggest that each of these parameters has a unique behavior when distance from the stream is considered. Finally, although it was expected that the models would apply better during the wet season, some parameters had the opposite behavior and displayed a better fit during the dry season.     

Water Quality and Land Use Changes in the Alafia and Hillsborough River Watersheds,Florida, USA1

Abstract: Spatial distribution of land use can have a substantial effect on surface and groundwater quality. Our objective was to test for trends in flow components and water quality related to changes in land use in the Alafia and Hillsborough River watersheds in Florida, USA, over the period 1974‐2007. In addition, water quality statistics were evaluated in the perspective of numeric water quality criteria and proposed reclassification of segments of the Alafia River. Trends in 10 water quality parameters and three discharge variables were evaluated using a nonparametric trend detection test. Results of land use analysis indicated substantial urbanization and loss of agricultural land in the study area. Discharge variables did not exhibit significant trends, whereas trends in the majority of water quality concentrations were negative or nonsignificant with total nitrogen and total Kjeldahl nitrogen as exceptions showing positive trends. Changes in nutrient pathways could not be clearly identified. Considering recently promulgated numeric nutrient criteria and standards for dissolved fluoride, much of the Alafia River was found to be out of compliance. While there were land use changes and changes in water quality over the study period, it was difficult to identify a direct cause‐effect relationship. Responses to regulatory efforts, such as the Clean Water Act and improvements in phosphate mining practices, may have had greater impacts on water quality than changes in land use.     

NONPARAMETRIC TESTS FOR TREND DETECTION IN WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: A review of nonparametric tests for trend leads to the conclusion that Mann-Whitney, Spearman, and Kendall tests are the best choice for trend detection in water quality time series. Recently these tests have been adapted to account for dependence and seasonality in such series (Lettenmaier, 1976; Hirsch, et al., 1972; Hirsch and Slack, 1984). For monotonic trends, a procedure allowing to select the pertinent tests considering the characteristics of time series is proposed and the practical limitations of the tests are also brought out. This procedure has been applied to identify the appropriate trend detection test for the time series of nine water quality parameters at Lake Laflamme (Québec). When a time series can be tested with the Mann-Whitney, Kendall, Spearman, or Lettenmaier (1976) test, the number of observations required to detect trends of a given magnitude, for selected significance and power levels can be calculated with the power function of the t test. When the test proposed by Hirsch, et al. (1984), Hirsch and Slack (1984), or Farrell (1980) need to be used, the number of observations can only be estimated approximately from the results of empirical power studies.     

WATER POLLUTION FROM OIL AND GAS RECOVERY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY WATERSHEDS1

The effects of water quality on brine discharged from oil and gas recovery operations are described for surface water and ground water in two small watersheds in eastern Kentucky. The brine, which had salinity that was often several times that of sea water, led to significantly higher concentrations of several minerals in surface water, particularly in the first and second order streams. Concentractions as high as 50,000 mg/I for sodium and 64,000 mg/I for chloride were measured in streams. The. differences in chemical concentrations for various chemicals over the period of the study were ascribed to temporal variability, particularly due to differences between wet and dry seasons, and to spatial variability, particularly due to dilution and other chemical decay processes. Chemical decay coefficients for sodium and chloride were developed as a function of watershed area for possible application to similar watersheds. There was some evidence that the brine was influencing the Licking River, the major stream that drains the eastern part of Kentucky.     

ANALYZING CORRELATIONS BETWEEN STREAM AND WATERSHED ATTRIBUTES1

ABSTRACT: Bivariate correlation analysis has been widely used to explore relationships between stream and watershed attributes that have all been measured on the same set of watersheds or sampling locations. Researchers routinely test H₀: ρ= 0 for each correlation in a large table and then go on to discuss only those that are declared “significant.” Such test results are inaccurate because no allowance is made for multiple testing, and also because the tests are not mutually independent. This paper reviews the Bonferroni approach to controlling the overall error rate in multiple testing and shows how the approach becomes impractical for large correlation tables. The Hotelling/Williams test is introduced for comparing two dependent correlations that share a variable, and numerical constraints for two such correlations are illustrated. References are also given for testing other hypothesized patterns among dependent correlations, and links to dependent correlation software are provided. The methods are illustrated for watershed and stream variables sampled in 23 small agricultural watersheds of the Willamette Valley, Oregon.     

The effect of Oja-titun market effluent on the chemical quality of receiving OPA reservoir in Ile-Ife, Nigeria

The effect of market effluent from the Oja-titun market in Ile-Ife, Nigeria on the chemical quality of the Opa Reservoir located 3.5 km downstream was investigated between February and November 2000. Water samples were collected in February, May, August and November from 16 sites, four along each of the market drainage channels (MDC), market stream, tributary stream and the Opa River and Reservoir. The peak level of each variable-biochemical oxygen demand, temperature, total alkalinity, Na(+), K(+), Ca(2+), Mg(2+), PO(4)(3+), SO(4)(2+), Cl(-), NO(3)(-), Pb and Zn-occurred at the MDC, and decreased significantly downstream, except pH, conductivity and dissolved oxygen, which increased. Seasonal fluctuation in most variables was pronounced. Generally, there were high values in the early dry and dry seasons and low values in the rainy and early rainy seasons. Comparison of the reservoir water with international limitation standards for drinking water supply showed that the quality of the reservoir water was very low and that treatment required to achieve minimum limitation standards for drinking water would be both intensive and expensive. The study concluded that the stream borne effluent from the market impacts significantly on the chemical quality of the reservoir water although other tributaries within the Reservoir's catchment are other possible sources of pollutants in the reservoir.     

DETECTING BASE FLOW IMPACTS IN COASTAL PLAIN STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: An established trend analysis methodology was applied to the problem of identifying and quantifying stream base flow impacts from water withdrawals and water loss through interbasin transfers. Impacts were simulated using base flow values selected from two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) continuous record streamflow sites located within the Pinelands of southern New Jersey. Study site base flows were regressed against index site base flows with monotonic and step trend tests applied to the residuals from the regression model. The smallest, significantly detectable (α= 0.10) percentage reduction within a given simulation was used as an estimate of the sensitivity of a trend test. Evaluation of the trend analysis methodology led to the following practical considerations regarding trend test sensitivity. The proportion of study site base flow variability explained by index site base flows should be maximized, while at the same time minimizing positive, first-order autocorrelation in the regression residuals. Given the importance of detecting autocorrelation, missing values should be avoided or minimized. The quarterly (three-month) interval reduced the magnitude of autocorrelation relative to a shorter two-month sampling interval. Sensitivity appeared to improve when equalizing the number of values before and after a base flow impact(s) while seasonally biased sampling appeared to reduce sensitivity. Based primarily on past trend detection studies, nonparametric tests were deemed a better choice over their parametric counterparts, due to the lack of stringent data distributional requirements coupled with little or no loss of power even when applied to normally distributed data.     

A Simple Stream Monitoring Technique Based on Measurements of Semiconservative Propertiesof Water

Correlative relationships exist among conductivity, alkalinity, and hardness in streams due to natural geological and climatological controls, but the relationships among these three water-quality factors can be altered strongly by inputs of ion-rich wastewaters. The degree of alteration can be monitored conveniently by use of a simple chemical perturbation index, computed by subtracting the sum of rank pairwise correlations among the conductivity, alkalinity, and hardness (for observations on each of these variables, measured through time) from 3.0. The chemical perturbation index can be used to document or characterize spatiotemporal changes in stream water quality. This study explains the development of the index's concept and provides examples of its application in an extensive stream monitoring program used to assess ecological conditions in streams on the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation in east Tennessee, USA. The chemical perturbation index technique may be particularly useful in community-based stream monitoring programs because to its simplicity and low cost.     

Recovery of Fish Communities in a Warm Water Stream Following Pollution Abatement

The long-term recovery process for fish communities in a warm water stream in East Tennessee was studied using quantitative measurements over 20 years. The stream receives effluents from a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) facility, but since 1985 these effluents have been greatly reduced, eliminated, or diluted as part of a substantial long-term pollution abatement program. The resulting changes in water quantity and quality led to a recovery of the fish communities, evidenced by significant changes in species richness, abundance (density and biomass), and community composition (e.g., number of fish species sensitive to stress). The fish community changes occurred over a spatial gradient (downstream from the headwater release zone nearest the DOE facility) and temporally, at multiple sampling locations in the stream. Changes in measured parameters were associated with specific remedial actions and the intervening steps within the recovery process are discussed with regard to changes in treatment processes.     

TRENDS IN LEAD CONCENTRATIONS IN MAJOR U.S. RIVERS AND THEIR RELATION TO HISTORICAL CHANGES IN GASOLINE-LEAD CONSUMPTION1

ABSTRACT: Declines in concentrations of dissolved lead occurred at nearly two-thirds of 306 locations on major U.S. rivers from 1974 to 1985. Declines in dissolved lead concentrations are statistically significant (p < 0.10) at approximately one-third of the sampling locations. Statistically significant increases in dissolved lead concentrations occurred at only 6 percent of the sites, but are clustered in the Texas-Gulf and Lower Mississippi regions. Possible explanations for the observed trends in lead concentrations are tested through comparisons with (1) records of lead discharges from major sources including leaded-gasoline consumption and municipal- and industrial-point source discharges, (2) trends in various water-quality constituents such as pH and total alkalinity, and (3) basin characteristics such as drainage area. Statistically significant declines in lead concentrations in streams and gasoline lead (i.e., the largest source of lead at these sites) are highly coincident for the 1979 to 1980 period at most sampling locations. The greatest amount of decline in gasoline lead occurred at sites showing statistically significant downtrends in stream concentrations of lead from 1974 to 1985. No more than 5 percent of the trends in stream lead are influenced by municipal- and industrial-point sources of lead. Factors that affect the transport of dissolved lead, including lead solubility, suspended sediment, and basin characteristics such as drainage basin size, are not significantly related to trends in dissolved lead. Trends in streamflow explain no more than 7 percent of the downtrends in concentrations of lead and may partly explain the frequent increases in lead concentrations in the Texas-Gulf and Lower Mississippi regions.     

A STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING THE POLLUTANTS IN A RIVER1

Urban and industrial areas continue to expand and consequently, to create serious water pollution problems to natural streams. The need for the development of accurate, reliable, and sensitive water quality prediction models is most desirable. The first objective of this research is to set guidelines for dividing a natural stream into more or less independent reaches based on some criteria. The second objective is to obtain the predicting equations of the water pollutants in a selected stream. The preliminary phase of this research evaluated water quality data sampled from the Pearl River which flows southwest and then turns south through the states of Mississippi and Louisiana. This evaluation served as guidelines to divide the total river basin into reaches (subsystems) appropriate to the objective of this research. Subsequent to this subsystem assignment, a stepwise multiple regression FORTRAN program was used to regress the pollutants (dependent variables) for both time and space on their water characteristics (independent variables). Based on the results obtained, the proposed statistical approach provides a practical tool for developing regression equations for the purpose of water pollutants' prediction.     

Modeling the Effects of Land Use Change on the Water Temperature in Unregulated Urban Streams

Streams, in their natural state, are typically diverse and biologically productive environments. Streams subject to urbanization often experience degradation brought about by the cumulative effects of flow alteration, unsanitary discharge and channelization. One of the water quality parameters affected by urbanization is stream temperature. This study offers a model for predicting the impact of land use change on the temperature of non-regulated streams during extreme events. A stream temperature model was created by considering the gains and losses of thermal energy resulting from radiation, convection, conduction, evaporation and advection. A sensitivity analysis showed that out of 14 variables, shade/transmissivity of riparian vegetation, groundwater discharge, and stream width had the greatest influence on stream temperature. These same three variables are highly influenced by land use. Individual component models were developed to predict how urbanization changes stream width and baseflow discharge. Using 3-D computer modeling, a model was also developed to illustrate the effects of altering the extent and composition of riparian vegetation on streams with different orientations. By modeling these three variables as a function of urbanization, the results became inputs into the stream temperature model. The critical urban stream temperature model (CrUSTe), an aggregation of these four models, allows the prediction of stream temperature change as a result of amount, type and location of urbanization within a watershed. It has the potential to become a valuable tool for environmental managers.     

ADAPTING EXISTING MODELS TO EXAMINE EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL CONSERVATION PROGRAMS ON STREAM HABITAT QUALITY1

Annual expenditures by the federal government in the United States for agricultural conservation programs increased about 80 percent with passage of the 2002 Farm Bill. However, environmental benefits of these programs have not been quantified. A national project is under way to estimate the effect of conservation practices on environmental resources. The watershed models intended for use in that project are focused on water quantity and quality and have minimal habitat assessment capability. Major impairments to aquatic ecosystems in many watersheds consist of physical habitat degradation, not water quality, suggesting that current models for this national initiative do not address one of the most significant aspects of aquatic ecosystem degradation. Currently used models contain some components relevant to aquatic habitat, and this paper describes specific components that should be added to allow rudimentary stream habitat quality assessments. At least six types of variables could be examined for ecological impact: land use, streamflow, water temperature, streambed material type, large woody debris, and hydraulic conditions at base flow. All of these variables are influenced by the presence, location, and quality of buffers. Generation of stream corridor ecological or habitat quality indices might contribute to assessments of the success or failure of conservation programs. Additional research is needed to refine procedures for combining specific measures of stream habitat into ecologically meaningful indices.     

VARIATION OF STREAM STABILITY WITH STREAM TYPE AND LWESTOCK BANK DAMAGE IN NORTHERN NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: Many natural and anthropogenic factors contribute to the stability or erodibility of stream channels. Although a stream rating procedure used by more than 60 percent of the U.S. National Forests provides an estimate of overall stability, it does not identify the cause of instability or indicate corrective management. To better sort natural from livestock influences, stream stability rating indicator variables were related to stream types and levels of ungulate bank damage in a large data base for streams in northern Nevada. Stability and the range in stability varied naturally with stream type. Ungulate bank damage had different effects on different stream types and on different parts of their cross-sections. Vegetation is more important for stability on certain stream types than on other types. Streams with noncohesive sand and gravel banks are most sensitive to livestock grazing. Range managers should consider the stream type when setting local standards, writing management objectives, or determining riparian grazing strategies.     

TECHNIQUES FOR DETECTING TRENDS IN LAKE WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: With the advent of standards and criteria for water quality variables, there has been an increasing concern about the changes of these variables over time. Thus, sound statistical methods for determining the presence or absence of trends are needed. A Trend Detection Method is presented that provides: 1) Hypothesis Formulation - statement of the problem to be tested, 2) Data Preparation - selection of water quality variable and data, 3) Data Analysis - exploratory data analysis techniques, and 4) Statistical Tests - tests for detecting trends. The method is utilized in a stepwise fashion and is presented in a nonstatistical manner to allow use by those not well versed in statistical theory. While the emphasis herein is on lakes, the method may be adopted easily to other water bodies.     

STREAM ASSESSMENTS USING BIOTIC INDICES: RESPONSES TO PHYSICOCHEMICAL VARIABLES1

ABSTRACT: Responses of the Wyoming Stream Integrity Index (WSII), a regionally calibrated multimetric index, were investigated in relation to background elevational changes in water quality and habitat conditions versus accelerated anthropogenic degradation at the watershed scale. Assessments were conducted for three rivers in southeast Wyoming: the Little Medicine Bow River, the Medicine Bow River, and Rock Creek. Pearson correlation coefficients and regression models related “core metrics” and index scores to elevational gradients of physicochemical variables. Velocity, substrate, and weighted habitat values were positively correlated to index scores, while suspended solids was negatively correlated. The exclusive dependence of index scores on physical variables specifies the type of environmental gradients the WSII is most robust in detecting. The individual “core metrics” Plecoptera taxa, Trichoptera taxa, percent Trichoptera without Hydropsychidae, and percent noninsects appeared most sensitive to physical changes and were thus driving associations between index scores and physical variables. Despite strong correlations with physical variables, anomalies existed where habitat conditions were good, unknown stressors existed, or gradients were naturally occurring despite “Poor” index scores (i.e., degraded stream conditions). Such findings illustrate the influence of regional variability on biotic indices and the importance of identifying sufficient reference and impaired stream reaches used to develop and calibrate multimetric indices relying on reference conditions.