MODELING RAINFALL-RUNOFF PROCESS INCLUDING LOSSES1

ABSTRACT: Existing discrete, linear rainfall-runoff models generally require the effective rainfall of a given storm as the input for computing the runoff hydrograph. This paper proposes a method for estimating, simultaneously, the optimal values of model parameters and the rainfall losses frem the measured rainfall hyetograph and the runoff hydrograph. The method involves an ARMA model for the rainfall-runoff process and a nonlinear iterative technique. The number of model parameters to be estimated for the ARMA model is much less than the unit hydrograph model. Applications of the model to three different watersheds show that the computed runoff hydrographs agree well with the measurements.     

PLANNING METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT ON LAKE EUTROPHICATION1

ABSTRACT: The effects of changing nutrient inputs through land use management, waste water treatment, or effluent diversion are not clear, and managers are discovering that decisions which were effective in reversing eutrophication for one lake are often unsuccessful when applied to another. Simple empirical relationships are often used to predict the impact of management decisions. Errors in estimation could result in either substantial costs for overdesign or failure to meet desired eutrophication levels. This paper presents and illustrates a methodology to evaluate the impact of land use and water resource management decisions on lake eutrophication. The problems of worth of additional information, and uncertainty of estimates were handled within a cost-effectiveness framework. The probability of exceeding a critical level of eutrophication was considered as a measure of effectiveness. The cost criterion is the expected value of opportunity costs, costs of analysis and costs of additional information. Uncertainty analysis techniques were used to estimate the effectiveness of various management alternatives. Bayesian methods can be utilized to determine the worth of additional information. The methodology was applied to Beseck Lake, Connecticut, and the cost and effectiveness measures estimated for a number of land management alternatives. Worth of additional information was not determined in this initial effort in uncertainty analysis for lake eutrophication management.     

THE USE OF A SIMPLE MODEL AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN LAKE MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: A simple, black-box lake model was developed for phosphorus, using nonlinear regression analysis on a data base of north temperate lakes. The uncertainty associated with the model was then combined with the parameter uncertainty and the independent variable uncertainty to provide an estimate of the confidence limits associated with a predicted value. The prediction uncertainty is often neglected, yet it is an important measure of the usefulness of a model. Prediction uncertainty reflects the modeler's confidence in the model, and it should be used by a decision maker as a weight indicating the value of the model prediction. A procedure is outlined that combined lake modeling and uncertainty analysis for use in lake quality assessment and lake management. An example is provided illustrating the use of this procedure in nutrient budget sampling design, data analysis, and the evaluation of lake management strategies for a 208 program in New Hampshire.     

PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN HYDROLOGY: THE STATE OF THE ART1

ABSTRACT A detailed review of current methods and criteria used in parameter estimation in hydrology is presented. The effect of errors in the data set and the effect of interactions between methods of analysis, criteria, data set errors, and modeling assumptions are reviewed and discussed briefly. It is concluded that study of techniques, criteria, data set errors and particularly interactions between these, is essential to further progress in hydrologic modeling.     

A FRAMEWORK FOR PHOSPHORUS TRANSPORT MODELING IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: A modeling framework was developed to determine phosphorus loadings to Lake Okeechobee from watersheds located north of the lake. This framework consists of the land-based model CREAMS-WT, the in-stream transport model QUAL2E, and an interface procedure to format the land-based model output for use by the in-stream model. QUAL2E hydraulics and water quality routines were modified to account for flow routing and phosphorus retention in both wetlands and stream channels. Phosphorus loadings obtained from previous applications of CREAMS-WT were used by QUAL2E, and calibration and verification showed that QUAL2E accurately simulated seasonal and annual phosphorus loadings from a watershed. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses indicated that the accuracy of monthly loadings can be improved by using better estimates of in-stream phosphorus decay rates, ground water phosphorus concentrations, and runoff phosphorus concentrations as input to QUAL2E.     

PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE-MOVING AVERAGE (PARMA) MODELING WITH APPLICATIONS TO WATER RESOURCES1

Results involving correlation properties and parameter estimation for autoregressive-moving average models with periodic parameters are presented. A multivariate representation of the PARMA model is used to derive parameter space restrictions and difference equations for the periodic autocorrelations. Close approximation to the likelihood function for Gaussian PARMA processes results in efficient maximum-likelihood estimation procedures. Terms in the Fourier expansion of the parameters are sequentially included, and a selection criterion is given for determining the optimal number of harmonics to be included. Application of the techniques is demonstrated through analysis of a monthly streamflow time series.     

ASSESSMENT OF NUTRIENT EFFECTS AND NUTRIENT LIMITATION IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE1

ABSTRACT: Lake Okeechobee, the third largest lake in the United States, is a shallow, mixing basin with annual total phosphorus concentrations ranging from 50–100 μg P/L. Data, mainly from unpublished agency reports, are analyzed to determine if nutrients limit phytoplankton, to describe spatial and temporal variability in trophic state parameters, and to evaluate conclusions obtained from empirical trophic state models. Algal bioassay experiments that have been used to assess nutrient limitation have produced equivocal results. However, seasonal minima in orthophosphorus and inorganic nitrogen indicate that both nutrients may be limiting seasonally. Strong, but reverse north-south gradients and large seasonal changes in phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations, show that empirical models based on annual phosphorus loadings or concentrations are not adequate to predict chlorophyll concentrations or other trophic state variables. Spatially-segmented, multi-class phytoplankton-nutrient models of seasonal phytoplankton responses that are coupled with hydrodynamic models may provide predictability in assessing effects of changing nutrient loads on phytoplankton composition and standing crop. Successful modeling efforts of responses to nutrients also must deal with resuspended and benthic algae, periphyton, and emergent and submergent aquatic plants that must play important trophic roles in some of the lake basin.     

INPUT/OUTPUT MODELS AS DECISION AIDS FOR LAKE RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: Over the past several years, input/output models have been used increasingly as decisionmaking aids in the design of lake restoration activities because they provide an approximation of the link between nutrient influx and lake trophic status. To evaluate the applicability of these models as design tools, a study was conducted in which “before” and “after” data were obtained for 25 lakes which experienced reductions in nutrient inflow, and comparisons were made of observed and predicted changes in lake conditions. Three input/output models were used as predictive tools to describe lake response: those reported by Dillon and Rigler (1974) and by Vollenweider (1975, 1976). Based on described trophic states of oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and eutrophic, it was found that all three models yielded accurate predictions for at least 70 percent of the study lakes. The model of Vollenweider (1976) performed slightly better than the other two (80 percent correct) on the data set studied.     

LAKE RESTORATION BY SEDIMENT REMOVAL1

ABSTRACT: Fresh water lake sediment removal is usually undertaken to deepen a lake and increase its volume to enhance fish production, to remove nutrient rich sediment, to remove toxic or hazardous material, or to reduce the abundance of rooted aquatic plants. Review of more than 60 projects and five case histories reveals that the first three objectives are usually met through sediment removal. Dredging to control aquatic plants has not been well documented. Disadvantages of dredging include cost, temporary phosphorus release from sediment, increased phytoplankton productivity, noise, lake drawdown, temporary reduction in benthic fish food organisms, the potential for toxic material release to the overlying water and potential for environmental degradation at the dredged material disposal site. The technique is recommended for deepening and for long range reduction of phosphorus release from sediment. Sediment removal to control toxic materials is possible with minimal environmental impact when proper equipment is used, but it may more than double the cost. Lack of definitive information about rooted plant regrowth rates in dredged areas prohibits explicit recommendations on sediment removal to control plant growth.     

APPLICATION OF COMPUTER INTENSIVE STATISTICS TO PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN STREAMFLOW SYNTHESIS1

ABSTRACT: This paper introduces the application of Computer Intensive Statistics (CIS) to the evaluation of parameter uncertainty with specific reference to the parameters in the ARMA models used in the synthesis of streamflows. The CIS provides an empirically derived joint distribution for all parameters. Random values from this distribution can be drawn for application in the model for the generation of a specific synthetic sample. The CIS originally proposed by Efron and discussed herein is of general applicability in the evaluation of uncertainty in any statistic derived from a set of data. Some comments and limitations of the CIS are discussed in the concluding remarks.     

A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR SMALL LAKE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Phosphorus loading tolerances of small lakes are analyzed by means of a statistical model of lake eutrophication based upon the work of Vollenweider and Dillon. Using a sample of 195 midwestern and eastern U. S. lakes, it was found that Vollenweider and Dillon's method of predicting the trophic status of relatively deep, slow-flushing lakes can be applied to shallower lakes with much shorter retention times. The statistical model used to replicate the results of Vollenweider and Dillon is stated in detail, for convenience of application to small lake water quality management problems. The model extends the Vollenweider and Dillon results by associating each alternative phosphorous loading with a probability that a given lake can achieve or maintain noneutrophis status. It is applicable to lakes for which only minimal data are available. The major policy conclusion is that the highly variable tolerance for phosphorus loading must be considered in legislating efficient effluent limitations. The paper concludes with a comparison to a recent contribution employing a similar approach.     

LAKE QUALITY DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Despite the fact that lake phosphorus loading criteria have proven to be valuable tools in lake management, they are generally subjective in nature or incomplete in form. In order to address these shortcomings, the oxic-anoxic transition point was selected as an objective quality criterion and discriminant analysis was used to construct a lake classification function. This function is dependent upon lake phosphorus loading, mean depth, and overflow rate. The value of the function may be expressed as a probability of classification (as either oxic or anoxic). When used in prediction, inclusion of the input error permits the estimation of the change in classification probability as input uncertainty is reduced. Further, the form of the discriminant function suggests that the annual volumetric loading is a more informative term for the expression of phosphorus loading than is the annual areal loading.     

CHANGE IN LAKE TROPHIC STATE AND INTERNAL PHOSPHORUS RELEASE AFTER ALUMINUM SULFATE APPLICATION1

ABSTRACT: Recovery of eutrophic lakes after nutrient diversion may be delayed if the lake experiences significant internal phosphorus (p) loading to the water column. A maximum dose of aluminum sulfate, defined herein, was applied to the anaerobic sediments of the hypolimnia of two dimictic Ohio lakes following septic tank diversion, with the objective of attaining long term control of the release of phosphorus to the water column from these sediments. The results were compared to a similar, downstream, untreated lake. Total phosphorus concentration declined sharply after treatment and has remained so through 1980 for both lakes, a period of 5 and 6 years of control, respectively. Internal P loading from anaerobic, hypolimnetic sediments was partially controlled by the treatment but there are other important sources, perhaps in the littoral zone, in these lakes. Algal biomass is Smaller and water transparency has increased. Both lakes became mesotrophic after treatment, as described by the Carlson (1977) trophic state index, and remain in that improved condition to date. No deleterious side effects were observed, although one lake experienced a significant decrease in diversity of planktonic microcrustacea and a lakeward extension of the macrophyte community. This method appears to be an effective and lasting means of accelerating the recovery of a eutrophic lake following nutrient diversion.     

GROUNDWATER FLOW SYSTEM ANALYSIS IN LAKE ENVIRONMENTS,WITH MANAGEMENT AND PLANNING IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT. Evaluation of lakes as they are related to groundwater flow systems is of special concern prior to efficient development and planning operations. Both naturally occurring and artificially created lakes are being developed rapidly as recreational and residential areas. Simultaneously, field verification of theoretical groundwater flow system behavior has progressed to the point where hydrogeologists trained to understand basic concepts of flow-system analysis can begin to broaden their research and service base, and to work closer with planners, developers, and engineers. It is suggested that particular efforts be directed toward a greater evaluation of physical, chemical, and biological aspects of potentially developable lake sites to aid in selecting use patterns in accord with these factors. Many lake developments are not in harmony with the physical environment. The resulting misuse of resources is often expressed as accelerated eutrophication of lakes, or by quality degradation of shallow groundwater flow systems contiguous to them. Lakes can no longer be considered as separate entities. Methodology for investigating the interchange of surface and near-surface water is adequate however, the application of known interchange relationships is inadequate. .     

LAKE EUTROPHICATION–A NATURAL PROCESS1

Lake eutrophication is an economic, recreational, and aesthetic problem that affects every lake of the world. Eutrophication is the natural process of lake aging, and progresses irrespective of man's activities. Pollution, however, can hasten the natural rate of aging and shorten the life expectancy of a body of water. The eutrophication of a lake consists of the gradual progression from one life stage to another based on the degree of nourishment or productivity. The extinction of a lake is attributed to enrichment by nutritive materials, biological productivity, decay, and sedimentation. Presently used methods for retarding eutrophication are the abatement of cultural enrichment, treatment of eutrophic symptoms, and control of fundamental causes.     

PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR TPLN DISTRIBUTION FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The principle of maximum entropy (POME) was used to derive an alternative method for parameter estimation for the three parameter lognormal (TPLN) distribution. Six sets of annual peak discharge data were used to evaluate this method and compare it with the methods of moments and maximum likelihood estimation.     

MODELING GROUND WATER FLOW USING FLUX BOUNDARY CONDITIONS1

ABSTRACT: Determination of the boundary conditions for modeling ground water flow is a critical point especially in regional models. Normally the regional models require model areas that are greater than the given area of interest. This work focuses on the prediction of hydraulic heads in regional models using flux boundary conditions. The model uses flux boundary conditions that were estimated using a radial flow analog and Darcy's law. The regional model that is presented uses no parameter identification (inverse estimation) procedures. In the present work, the Houston area was used. The simulation of the hydrological conditions of the Chicot and Evangeline Aquifers that underlie the Houston area were made using the available information about the geological profile in the Houston region and the current information about the existing production wells. The regional model works as a forward problem. The system parameters such as hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and hydrological stresses were specified, and the model predicts the hydraulic head. Actual data from piezometers operated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in many places throughout Houston were used as initial conditions. Some piezometric head data were generated using the regional variable theory called kriging to supply head estimates in areas where data were unavailable. The Modular Three Dimensional Finite Difference Groundwater Flow Model developed by the USGS was used to predict the hydraulic heads. The predicted ground water heads are compared to the actual data. The results show that the model performs well for locations where data were available.     

NPS MODEL PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR AN OFF-STREAM RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: Parameter uncertainties exert a significant effect on nonpoint source pollution (NPS) modeling results. A decision made on the basis of such results may thereby be inappropriate. In this work, the parameter uncertainty is analyzed to explore an improved modeling procedure. Drainage patterns generated from digital elevation data and rainfall are the major parameters examined. A case study for the watershed of the Posan off-stream reservoir is implemented. A significant spatial variation of NPS distribution simulated with a drainage pattern generated from varied methods is observed. The effects of rainfall randomness on the spatial loading distribution are assessed and computed based on a Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed procedure is capable of improving the quality of modeling results and the decision for an appropriate control strategy.     

THE DILUTION/FLUSHING TECHNIQUE IN LAKE RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: Dilution/flushing has been documented as an effective restoration technique to restore eutrophic Moses and Green Lakes in Washington State. The dilution water added to both lakes was low in nitrogen and phosphorus content relative to the lake or normal input water. Consequently, lake nutrient content dropped predictably. Dilution or flushing rates were about ten times normal during the spring-summer periods in Moses Lake and three times normal on an annual basis in Green Lake. Improvement in quality (nutrients, algae, and transparency) was on the order of 50 percent in Moses Lake and even greater in Green Lake. The facilities for supplying dilution water were largely in place for the cited lakes; thus, costs for water transport were minimal. Available facilities, and therefore, costs, for water transport would usually vary greatly, however. Achieving maximum benefit from the technique may be more limited by availability of low nutrient water rather than facilities costs. Quality improvement may occur from physical effects of algal cell washout and water column instability if only high nutrient water is available.     

URBAN INFLUENCE ON PHOSPHORUS AND SEDIMENT LOADING OF WEST POINT LAKE,GEORGIA1

ABSTRACT: West Point Lake is a 10,360 ha mainstream impoundment of the Chattahoochee River located 95 kilometers downstream of Atlanta, Georgia. Origins and magnitude of external total phosphorus (TP) and total suspended solids (TSS) loads from the West Point Lake basin were estimated over a one-year period. Partitioning the drainage basin allowed the sources of these loads to be determined. The upper subbasin area, from Franklin, Georgia, to the headwaters of the Chattahoochee River, contributed 96 percent of the discharge and 97 percent of the TP and TSS loads into West Point Lake. The lower subbasin area, from Franklin to West Point Lake dam, only contributed 3 percent of the TP and TSS loads. Ninety-one percent and 87 percent of the TP and TSS loads, respectively, from the upper subbasin originated from the Atlanta area. Point sources discharged 70 percent and 3 percent of the upper subbasin TP and TSS loads, respectively. A large portion (66 percent) of the TP from the upper subbasin was in the bioavailable form.