MULTIVARIATE NONPARAMETRIC TESTS FOR TREND IN WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: National and state fixed station stream quality monitoring networks have now been in existence for over ten years. The resulting data bases provide opportunities and challenges for statistical trend assessment. Although nonparametric tests have been developed that are well suited to such problems, the interpretation of variations in trend significance between seasons and variables remains a problem. One recently developed test is based on the sum of Mann-Kendall statistics over seasons or variables, with the test statistic variance computed as the sum of the covariances of the individual Mann-Kendall statistics. In this method, up- and downtrends can cancel, giving an overall indication of no trend. A related test which is sensitive to trend regardless of direction has been shown to behave poorly for typical stream quality record lengths. An alternative formulation which is sensitive to up- and downtrends and has power approaching that of the covariance sum method, is described. In addition, a variation of a contrast test for discriminating trend directions and magnitudes among variables or seasons where correlation between seasons or variables is present is described, and tests of its performance reported.     

SAGE: A NEW PARTICIPANT-VALUE METHOD FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT1

SAGE, a proposed method for environmental assessment, focuses on eliciting and incorporating value weights in multiple-objective decision making. In this method, the value weights are inferred from the tradeoffs that people make in choices about alternatives. These weights are applied to scaled scores for accounts based on measurable attributes of each objective. In order to indicate the political ramifications of decisions and to facilitate sensitivity analysis, the values held by various groups are presented in matrix from arrayed by group affiliation or by judgment types that share common values. Results of a trial application of SAGE to a land use/watershed management problem in a growing urban area are presented.     

TESTING FOR TREND IN LAKE AND GROUND WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: The detection of gradual trends in water quality time series is increasing in importance as concern grows for diffuse sources of pollution such as acid precipitation and agricultural non-point sources. A significant body of literature has arisen dealing with trend detection in water quality variables that exhibit seasonal patterns. Much of the literature has dealt with seasonality of the first moment. However, little has been mentioned about seasonality in the variance, and its effect upon the performance of trend detection techniques. In this paper, eight methods of trend detection that arise from both the statistical literature as well as the water quality literature have been compared by means of a simulation study. Varying degrees of seasonality in both the variances and the means have been introduced into the artificial data, and the performances of these procedures are analyzed. Since the focus is on lake and ground water quality monitoring, quarterly sampling and short to moderate record lengths are examined.     

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF TAILINGS DISPERSAL FROM A URANIUM MINE USING TOXICITY TESTING PROTOCOLS1

ABSTRACT: Toxicity testing is a means of establishing the environmental risk of a uranium tailings release. It is valuable in designing tailings containment structures because it assists in setting acceptable levels of risk for the design. This paper presents details of toxicity tests of the tailings from Ranger Uranium Mine, Northern Territory, Australia. The results suggest that the non-radiological toxicity of the tailings is low. The environmental risk of a tailings release is more likely to be related to the physical impacts of the tailings, including infilling of billabongs and changes in the sedimentology of riparian ecosystems rather than their biogeochemical impact. Two major results were: (1) water from treatment with washed tailing fines were not toxic to Hydra viridissima, and (2) mixtures of washed tailings fines and natural floodplain sediment (overlying water or elutriates) were not toxic to Hydra viridissima or Moinodaphnia macleayi.     

NATIONWIDE ASSESSMENT OF URBAN RUNOFF IMPACT ON RECEIVING WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Urban stormwater runoff has been recognized as a potential major contributor of pollution to receiving waters. However the projected high costs of control have prompted an examination of the extent to which these impacts have been documented. A nationwide search was conducted for case studies demonstrating a cause-effect linkage between urban runoff and impairment of beneficial uses in receiving waters. The results indicate that numerous definitions of “impacts” are being used and that few substantive data exist to support many of these allegations. Results of a preliminary impact assessment are presented for the 248 urbanized areas of the United States. Then, the results of more recent efforts to assess these impacts in several case studies are described. This assessment demonstrates the critical need for additional short-term and long-term sampling programs.     

WATER FOR ENERGY: AN APPROACH TO COMPREHENSIVE IMPACT ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: The effects of energy development on the water resources of the Colorado River and Great Basin regions is expected to be substantial. Complex physical, economic and institutional interactions may be expected. Most research on these impacts appears single purpose, fragmented, uncoordinated, and often inaccessible to potential users - particularly those with responsibility for energy/water policy and program decisions. A comprehensive, integrative framework for assessing alternative water allocation decisions is outlined, taking a heuristic decision making model for evaluating impacts on maximization of gross (or net) regional product, and regional social welfare, and for assessing the region's contribution to national objectives. The suggested model provides a structure for application and integration of data of various kinds to a range of situations arising from possible impacts from energy proposals. The focus is on water and energy relationships but the model may provide a framework for comprehensive analysis of a variety of environmental actions and resulting system perturbations and effects.     

EVALUATING POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF INSECTICIDE APPLICATIONS IN A BOLL WEEVIL ERADICATION PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: Concerns have been expressed about the potential insecticide contamination of regional water resources from a boll weevil eradication program in Oklahoma. A mathematical model and geographic information system techniques were utilized to evaluate the potential of insecticide leaching and runoff from a major proposed program area in the state. Different but equally likely weather patterns were generated, and potential insecticide losses associated with each pattern were predicted. Soil types and their locations within cotton areas were identified, and potential chemical losses from each soil were delineated. Model simulations indicated that azinphos-methyl and diflubenzuron could leach from some porous soils and that all insecticides suggested for use in the program could be lost to runoff. The predicted chemical movements with runoff were significantly higher on irrigated land than from non-irrigated land. Malathion demonstrated no leaching and low potential of runoff losses among the insecticides evaluated.     

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF CHANNEL MODIFICATION1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this literature review is to identify and quantify the effects of channelization and to examine the feasibility and acceptability of alternative methods of flood control. In the past 150 years, over 200,000 miles of stream channels have been modified. Channelization can affect the environment by draining wetland, cutting off oxbows and meanders, clearing floodplain hardwoods, lowering ground water levels, reducing ground water recharge from stream flow, and increasing erosion sedimentation, channel maintenance, and downstream flooding. Channelization reduces the size, number, and species diversity of fish in streams. In a wet climate, the fishery requires less than 10 years to fully recover. However, in the drier climates, the fishery may never fully recover. In general, channel modifications have performed as designed for flood abatement. The Arthur D. Little Study (1973) reported that direct benefits estimated during channelization planning have been conservative and that damage reduction has been impressive. Diking seems to be a viable alternative to channel dredging. Dikes minimize destruction of wetland and eliminate the need for removing vegetation from the existing stream banks.     

A WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE SENEGAL RIVER BASIN1

A study was made to determine the impact on water quality due to water resource development in a large river basin in a semi-arid region of West Africa. Mathematical modeling and the examination of case histories were used to project impacts. The impacts associated with changes in water quality were shown to be slight assuming that modern basin and agricultural management practices are adopted. Analytical techniques normally implemented in studies of more highly developed basins are useful for analysis of water quality impacts in relatively undeveloped basins.     

SELECTING TREND TESTS FOR WATER QUALITY SERIES WITH SERIAL CORRELATION AND MISSING VALUES1

ABSTRACT: The use of nonparametric tests for monotonic trend has flourished in recent years to support routine water quality data analyses. The validity of an assumption of independent, identically distributed error terms is an important concern in selecting the appropriate nonparametric test, as is the presence of missing values. Decision rules are needed for choosing between alternative tests and for deciding whether and how to pre-process data before trend testing. Several data pre-processing procedures in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall tau and the Seasonal Kendall test (with and without serial correlation correction) are evaluated using synthetic time series with generated serial correlation and missing data. A composite test (pre-testing for serial correlation followed by one of two trend tests) is evaluated and was found to perform satisfactorily.     

NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICAL METHODS IN URBAN HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH1

ABSTRACT. In urban hydrologic studies, it is often necessary to determine the effect of changes in urban land use patterns on such runoff characteristics as flood peaks and flow volumes. Nonparametric statistical methods have certain properties that make them a valuable tool for detecting hydrologic change caused by a treatment, such as urbanization, that changes watershed over a period of time. As many hydrologists do not have a working familiarity with nonparametric methods, a number of them are used for illustrative purposes to analyze the effect of urbanization on 24 years of annual flood peaks for a Louisville, Kentucky, watershed. In the example, urbanization was found to increase the central tendency, but not the dispersion of the peaks. Peak flows modeled by holding watershed parameters constant were also found to be increasing because of an upward trend in precipitation. By following the numerical examples in the paper and looking up test statistics in referenced sources, the reader can easily apply these methods to other situations.     

RELATING TRENDS OF PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS TO TRENDS OF WATER-QUALITY CONSTITUENTS1

ABSTRACT: The seasonal Kendall test is used for detecting water-quality trend or lack of trend for monthly data of 15 water-quality constituents at 15 sampling stations in the Arkansas River, the Neosho River, and the Verdigris River basins. Trends of individual constituents and the trends of the first four principal components for the correlation matrix of water-quality data at each station are determined, and the relationships between the trends of constituents and the trends of principal components are established. Using the principal components not only reduces the high dimensionality of the original data to a few principal components, but also presents an overall picture of water-quality trend of these river basins.     

LONG-RANGE STREAMFLOW FORCASTING USING NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION1

ABSTRACT: A class of nonparametric procedures is developed for producing long-range streamflow forecasts. The forecasting procedures, which are based solely on daily streamflow data, utilize nonparametric regression to relate a forecast variable to a covariate variable. The forecast variable is a function of future streamflow and can take a wide variety of forms. The covariate variable is a function of antecedent streamflow. The forecasting procedures are quite flexible, both in terms of the duration of the forecast period and the types of forecast variables that can be considered. The procedures are used to develop long-term (1–4 months) forecasts of minimum daily flow of the Potomac River at Washington, D.C. This forecast information is an integral component of water management activities for the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area.     

ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: Evaluation criteria for reservoir and stream resources were developed to provide decision makers with feedback on environmental consequences of water allocation decisions under conditions of severe sustained drought within the Colorado River Basin by using the AZCOL gaming simulation model. Seven categories of flow dependent resources were identified which highlight resource states associated with reservoirs or river reaches within the AZCOL model. AZCOL directly simulates impact of water management decisions on five resource categories: threatened, endangered or sensitive fish; native nonlisted fish; wetland and riparian elements; national or state wildlife refuges; and hatcheries or other flow dependent facilities. Two additional categories - cold and warm water sport fish - are not modeled explicitly but are incorporated in the evaluation of monetary benefits from recreation on Colorado River waters. Each resource category was characterized at each time step in the simulation according to one of four environmental states: stable, threatened, endangered, or extirpated. Changes in resource states were modeled by time and flow-dependent decision criteria tied to either reservoir level or stream flows within the AZCOL model structure. Gaming results using the AZCOL model indicate environmental impacts would be substantial and that water allocation decisions directly impacted environmental resource states.     

METHODS AND DATA REQUIREMENTS FOR RIVER-QUALITY ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Geological Survey is now (1975) conducting an intensive river-quality assessment of the Willamette River basin, Oregon. The objectives are to (1) define a practical framework for conducting comprehensive river-quality assessments, (2) develop and document methods for evaluating basin-development alternatives in terms of potential impacts on river quality, (3) determine the kinds and amounts of data required to adequately assess various types of river-quality problems, and (4) apply the framework, data, and methods to assess the existing or potential river-quality problems of the Willamette River basin. This paper covers objectives 2, 3, and 4 by examining the rationales behind the selection and application of methods and the design of data programs for assessing specific river-quality problems. The rationales are those developed for assessing (1) the effect of population and industrial growth and resulting waste discharges on river-dissolved oxygen, (2) the potentially harmful effects on land and river quality of accelerated erosion resulting from intensive land-use development, and (3) the potential for nuisance algal growth. The goal of the assessment program and, thus, the context of the rationales is to provide technically sound information that is appropriate and adequate for resource planning and management.     

EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT OF POPULATIONS USING ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING,DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS,AND GIS1

ABSTRACT: Simulation of ground-water flow and fate of contaminants in the subsurface environment constitutes a major phase of most environmental assessment and site remediation studies. These simulation studies yield information on spatial and temporal distributions of contaminants in the subsurface media. An important use of this information is to conduct exposure assessment studies. Spatial and temporal distributions of both chemical concentrations and exposed populations render this integrated exposure analysis task rather difficult. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), on the other hand, provide a platform in which layered, spatially distributed databases can be manipulated with ease, thereby simplifying exposure analysis tasks significantly. In this paper, we describe procedures that combine the simulation models and demographic databases under a GIS platform to automate the exposure assessment phase of a typical health assessment study. Procedures developed herein significantly simplify the post-processing phase of the analysis, and render the overall task more ‘user friendly.’ A site-specific application is included as a demonstration of the proposed process.     

USING UNCENSORED TRACE-LEVEL MEASUREMENTS TO DETECT TRENDS IN GROUND WATER CONTAMINATION1

ABSTRACT: Environmental decision making involving trace-levels of contaminants can be complicated by censoring, the practice of reporting concentrations either as less than the limit of detection (LOD) or as not detected (ND) when a test result is less than the LOD. Censoring can result in data series that are difficult to meaningfully summarize, graph, and analyze through traditional statistical methods. In spite of the relatively large measurement errors associated with test results below the LOD, simple and meaningful analyses can be carried out that provide valuable information not available if data are censored. For example, an indication of increasing levels of contamination at the fringe of a plume can act as an early warning signal to trigger further study, an increased sampling frequency, or a higher level of remediation at the source. This paper involves the application of nonparametric trend analyses to uncensored trace-level groundwater monitoring data collected between March 1991 and August 1994 on dissolved arsenic and chromium for seven wells at an industrial site in New York.