新能源汽车补贴政策工具挖掘及量化评价

现阶段中国大力开展新能源汽车示范推广工作,中央及各地方政府已相继出台一系列补贴政策。在严厉打击新能源汽车"骗补"及补贴政策重新调整等背景下,分析梳理现有政策从而对其进行整体把握与正确判断显得尤为重要,从而为政策改进与优化做准备。本文选取了截至2016年底国家和北京市颁布的涉及新能源汽车补贴的相关政策。首先,从采用文本挖掘的方法整理出的政策文本的高频有效关键词从中提炼出的政策工具,可分为供给型、需求型、环境型三类,分别从技术推动、市场拉动和环境支撑三个方面促进和规范新能源汽车市场。发现现有政策工具仍存在一些问题,如缺乏支持新能源汽车技术提升和产品开发的供给型政策工具;环境型政策工具的作用重点欠科学,对充电基础设施建设的重视程度不够;补贴过于聚焦新能源汽车购买环节等。其次,结合政策特点运用PMC指数模型构建了新能源汽车补贴政策的量化评价框架,通过变量分类、参数识别建立了多投入产出表,并通过PMC指数的测量、PMC曲面的生成综合反映政策各维度的情况。再次,采用实证分析的方法,选取3项新能源汽车补贴政策(P1、P2、P3)为研究对象,对政策进行量化评价。结果得出3项政策的PMC指数分别为7.52、6.95、6.21,均在良好的等级之内,P1政策的量化结果为优秀,P2、P3政策结果为良好,且具有较大的提升空间,可考虑在激励措施等方面予以加强。最后,根据新能源汽车补贴政策无法取得预期效果的原因,提出三点政策优化意见:(1)重视供给型政策工具的使用,加大新能源汽车科研资金投入;(2)环境型政策工具的作用重点应放在充电等基础设施的建设上;(3)需求型可考虑采取以公共交通带动私人交通的策略。     

“后补贴”时代地方政府新能源汽车补贴策略研究

新能源汽车补贴是政府为了发展新能源汽车产业所采取的一项激励政策。现有文献虽在微观层面上研究了政府补贴对新能源汽车推广的影响,但多将补贴政策限定为固定额度的政府补贴,未考虑中国特殊的两级政府补贴政策尤其是地方政府补贴对新能源汽车推广的影响,且在补贴政策的设计上未与新能源汽车的实际推广目标相结合。基于"后补贴"时代的地方政府既要实现新能源汽车推广目标又要保证补贴政策合理退坡的双重现实要求。本文依据当前中央政府为新能源汽车提供固定补贴,地方政府提供配套比例补贴以及制定价格补贴比例上限的现实情形,综合考虑新能源汽车成本、充电桩建设情况、消费者初始效用、中央政府补贴等因素对地方新能源汽车推广的影响,构建了地方政府为实现既定新能源汽车推广目标的最优补贴策略模型。研究表明:(1)对于不同效用水平的消费者,地方政府价格补贴比例上限和配套比例补贴对新能源汽车零售价格所起的作用不同;(2)地方政府补贴政策只有在小于或等于其最优配套比例或价格补贴比例上限时才会对新能源汽车推广产生正向影响。最后,还结合北京新能源汽车推广的实际情况进行了数值模拟,给出了在不同新能源汽车成本、充电桩建设情况、消费者初始效用下北京市政府为实现新能源汽车推广目标的最优补贴策略。数值模拟结果表明,当前北京新能源汽车存在地方配套比例过高、价格补贴比例上限过高等问题。在后补贴时代,北京市政府可依据新能源汽车成本下降、充电设施逐步完善、消费者初始效用提升等因素变化,对补贴进行适当退坡。数值模拟表明,所构造的最优补贴策略模型对后补贴时代地方政府新能源汽车补贴政策的制定具有较高的参考价值。     

“十二五”以来中国应对气候变化的行政手段评估

在中国应对气候变化政策体系中,目标责任制和淘汰落后产能这两项行政手段具有核心地位。充分认识其作用机制,阐述其优势与不足,对于中国碳减排政策的优化设计意义深远。本文遵循气候变化评估报告的原则和方法,以国内外公开发表的相关文献为基础,评估了这两项政策的作用机制、政策有效性以及存在的问题。结果显示:目标责任制和淘汰落后产能这两项行政手段具有高度的有效性。这些行政手段顺应了中国的各项体制机制,确保了中国应对气候变化目标的实现。具体来看,节能降碳目标责任制通过明确地方政府作为节能降碳政策执行主体的责任,改变了原有的官员激励体系,强化了政府对既有政策的执行,还促进了地方政府和企业各项节能降碳制度的形成。淘汰落后产能以目标责任考核为基础,结合各种激励政策,在节能降碳、化解产能过剩等方面发挥了巨大效应。尽管行政手段在温室气体减排中的作用非常有效,但是这种自上而下的压力传递机制难以真正内化为地方政府和企业开展节能降碳工作的自发性力量。此外,由于节能降碳目标的层层分解,县级及以下政府承担了与其行政管理权限并不匹配的责任。在压力体制下,过剩产能的市场退出障碍和地方政府、企业产能扩张的冲动依然存在。未来应结合行政和市场手段的优缺点,综合施策,促进温室气体减排长效机制的形成。     

中国粮食支持政策该向何处去?--来自商品储备模型量化政策评估的证据

粮食安全是社会稳定、经济发展和国家安全的重要基础,粮食支持政策是粮食安全国家战略的核心抓手。过去以托市收储为主要特征的粮食支持政策曾经有效提高了农民种粮积极性和粮食供应能力,但国内市场矛盾累积和多边贸易争端加剧将托市收储推到改革关口。在改革窗口期,跳出国内研究以经验判断、逻辑推演的传统,采用国际农业政策分析中普遍使用的量化评估方法,精确考察和预测粮食支持手段的政策效应,具有迫切必要性、理论和现实意义。基于此,借鉴Wright&William经典商品储备模型(Commodity Storage Model)分析框架,构建一个考虑社会福利动态最优的小麦市场模型,对调低托市价格/取消托市、实行生产者补贴、“托市+生产者补贴”双层政策和补贴私人储备四种改革措施进行了数值优化和模拟分析,从市场稳定、农民保护、粮食安全、财政成本和黄箱限制五维评价指标,详细刻画不同改革措施的改革效果和政策空间后发现:①取消托市、降低托市价格和补贴生产者均会不同程度冲击市场稳定、农民收益和粮食安全。②“托市+生产者补贴”能够以黄箱限制内的成本达到可观的增产增收效果,私人储备补贴高效率与低效果并存。③托市政策具有优良的稳市效果,双层政策则在产量、收入支撑上效果突出。这意味着不应贸然取消托市,改革取向也不应囿于非此即彼式的政策抉择,而应建立多层次粮食支持体系,收缩托市范围并将其后置,增加生产者补贴力度,适度引入私人民间收储以强化效果、降低成本、培育市场,从而在粮食安全保障能力不削弱的前提下,进一步释放市场活力、降低多边贸易争端风险。     

Sustainable investment funds and the government: a comparative study on public policies in the Netherlands and Belgium

With the growing awareness of sustainable development, some European governments have implemented public policy with respect to sustainable investment funds aimed at individual investors. In this article, the public policies of two European central governments are compared: the Dutch Groenregeling and the Belgian Kringloopfonds. On the basis of intervention theory and Hanbergen’s evaluation framework (2001), we claim that public policy can impact upon the sustainable investment market, but that the outcomes of the public policy depend on how that policy is designed. Governments are likely to have a choice between a private and a public approach, in which private and public sustainable investment funds, respectively, play a key role. It is argued that a private approach, owing to the absence of uncertainty, in comparison to a public approach and the presence of a higher intermediation rate for sustainable investment funds, attracts more investors, leads to more sustainable investment funds being established as well as to more assets under management and sustainable projects being financed.     

Government intervention in green industries: lessons from the wind turbine and the organic food industries in Denmark

Government intervention in green infant industries may be justified as a strategy to increase the provision of public goods. How should government policies be designed to promote such industries? One way to analyse this question is to compare government intervention in green infant industries in which it has been successful with green infant industries in which it has been less successful. The Danish government has intervened intensively in the wind turbine industry and organic farming sector mainly for environmental reasons since 1992 and 1987, respectively, but with very different impacts. While the electricity market share of wind energy reached 20% in 2007, organic food consumption lags behind with a food market share of approximately 8.5% in 2007. This paper compares the packages of policy instruments applied in the two industrial sectors and assesses whether differences in instrument choice may explain the significant differences in market shares. It is demonstrated that government intervention in the wind turbine industry has emphasized the use of policy instruments designed to increase demand for wind energy, whereas organic farming policy has put more emphasis on instruments motivating farmers to increase supply. This may be an important factor explaining variance in growth. Finally, the paper analyses whether the lessons from government policy aimed at promoting the wind turbine industry can be transferred to organic farming policy.     

Monitoring, enforcement, and the choice of environmental policy instruments

How to choose among the dozen policy instruments available to environmental management agencies has been a matter of concern and debate among environmental economists for the entire life of the profession – nearly four decades. The ability, or lack of it, to measure the quantities or observe the actions made "enforceable" by particular policy instruments ought clearly to be central to this choice. However, all too often the monitoring problem has been assumed away. When it is reintroduced in realistic forms, we find, not surprisingly, that some favorite policy instruments, such as pollution charges, are not applicable to some important problems, such as runoff pollution from farms; that marginal subsidies, by changing the burden of proof, may no longer be symmetric with charges; and that the apparent freedom from monitoring requirements of the newly fashionable instrument involving the public provision of information about firms or products is "paid for" by our inability to say anything about its performance on other dimensions that are also of interest. Electronic Publication     

Energy intensities and the impact of high energy prices on producing and consuming sectors in Malaysia

The increase in oil prices has put pressure on the global economy. Even economies that have a high degree of self-sufficiency concerning oil products are experiencing rising production costs and price increases for households energy use. Therefore, changes in energy policies are under consideration for countries highly dependent on imported energy as well as countries with a high degree of self-sufficiency. Examination of dependence on cheap energy sources for economic growth in different economic sectors is becoming more important as countries are trying to promote activities that are less energy intense. Among the policy changes under consideration, the adjustment of domestic energy subsidies is of particular interest. The effect of high energy prices on a fast growing economy, such as in Malaysia, is considerable, as the country will shift from being a net exporter of energy to a net importer in less than 10 years. Malaysia until recently has experienced increasing overall energy intensity and the growth up to 2,000 was quite high, especially for electricity intensity. A continued rise in energy intensity will be quite problematic in this new high oil price regime. This paper investigates the impact of rising energy prices on production costs for the different sectors of the Malaysian economy. Input–output (I–O) calculations demonstrate that the impact on the exporting component of the manufacturing sectors is less than for the average production. Therefore the production cost increase caused by, for example, an adjustment in electricity prices of 25% will result in less than 1/2% increase. As the competing countries in world markets are experiencing the same rise in energy costs, including electricity based on fossil fuels, there is no vital argument for not allowing domestic energy prices to adjust to the international price changes.

A strategic quantitative approach for sustainable energy production from biomass

European legislation has created a growing interest in the field of renewable energy production in several countries, including Italy. The applications of biomass and/or biofuel for energy generation have been assumed to provide a high level of sustainability due to the perception that renewable resources are inherently sustainable. Thus, renewable fuels applied to heating and/or electricity generation are potentially carbon dioxide neutral. However, before accepting this assumption, it is essential to analyse the actual level of sustainability in the whole supply chain (SC). This requirement has been clearly identified by the recently updated European Directives on renewable biofuels for transportation. However, there is little evidence that this concern has been directed at energy production from biomass. Thus, approaches derived from Green SC Management (GSCM) methods could provide an effective tool for evaluating, from a strategic perspective, the sustainability level of a specific biomass SC. This paper examines how biomass SC activities can define the overall environmental sustainability level. The approach was based on environmental indicators and the resultant output could support more effective GSCM strategies (e.g. defining logistics carriers, evaluating new biomass suppliers, etc.) for managing biomass SCs. Moreover, the approach could be applied by competent authorities for a quick evaluation of the sustainability level of biomass energy production installations. The approach has been tested in a real case study based on an installation, located in Southern Italy, which uses liquid biomass for energy production.     

排污补贴视角下的养殖户环保投资影响因素研究——基于沪、苏、浙生猪养殖户的调查分析

随着畜牧业的发展,畜牧业污染问题日益突出。解决污染问题的关键是增强养殖户参与,鼓励他们自发进行环保投资,而政府补贴对于具有外部性的生产投资活动均具有刺激作用。为了量化分析影响农户环保投资行为的各因素的作用程度,特别是政府补贴的激烈效果,本文运用调查结合实证的研究方法,在农户模型的分析框架上,以沪、苏、浙地区394户生猪养殖户的调查数据为基础,应用有序logit模型验证排污补贴、养殖户生产经营特征、环保需求特征对养殖户环保投资的作用。研究表明除了政府补贴会刺激养殖户的环保投资外,养殖规模对环保投资有激励作用,而养殖年限却会抑制环保投资。养殖户的个人特征,对污染的认知及参与污染治理的意愿也对环保投资水平有正的影响,但作用效果不明显。在此基础上,本文提出了合理制定和推进排污补贴政策,以"离牧补助"等形式促使养殖规模和环保要求不符的养殖户退出养殖业,加大畜牧业污染危害的宣传力度以及政府加强对污染处理技术的研发投资,从而降低处理成本等政策建议。     

作业补贴与农户绿色生态农业技术采用行为研究

绿色生态农业技术是农业可持续发展的关键,中国提出建立以绿色生态为导向的农业补贴制度,探索政府购买服务等作业补贴方式,促进绿色生态农业技术推广。但是“补给谁”“如何补”“补多少”等政策操作问题尚未很好解决。本文以农作物秸秆机械化还田技术作业补贴为例,基于江苏、山东、黑龙江三省622户农户2018年实地调查数据,综合评估了绿色生态农业技术作业补贴政策及补贴方式(即补贴种植户和补贴作业服务组织)对农户绿色生态农业技术采用行为的影响。结果表明:第一,作业补贴政策对农户是否采用绿色生态农业技术和采用时间均有显著正向影响,补贴发放给农户的地区,农户更倾向于采用绿色生态农业技术,且采用时间更早。第二,相对于无农机的农户而言,有农机的农户更倾向于采用生态农业技术,且采用时间更早。第三,农户受教育程度、家庭劳动力人数、是否规模户、技术培训对农户是否采用生态农业技术和采用时间有显著正向影响。第四,农户类型、是否加入农民专业合作社、家庭劳动力人数、技术培训对农户是否获得补贴有显著正向影响。据此,政府需要继续扩大绿色生态农业补贴的技术类型及实施区域,适当提高重点区域补贴额度,补贴对象应当向种植户倾斜;为农户提供技术指导服务,加强绿色生态农业技术培训,提升农户生态农业理念;根据不同规模种植户禀赋特征制定相应推广政策,让不同类型农户享受到绿色生态农业技术的益处;鼓励获得补贴的农机户或服务组织等积极提供生态农业技术作业服务,使其真正成为推动农户采用绿色生态农业技术的重要途径。     

Discerning the factors explaining the change in energy efficiency

Due to the high rates of energy consumption and its impact on environment over the last decades, policy decision-makers are increasingly recognising the need to take actions that allow to address problems associated with the deployment of non-renewable resources and climate changes. One field of action has been the promotion of measures that contribute to improve energy efficiency of countries. The purpose of this study is to identify the main factors explaining changes in energy efficiency applying the multiplicative Log Mean Divisia Index decomposition method for a set of countries (Portugal, UK, Brazil and China) with different socio-economic background and energy mix. The results show that overall energy efficiency trends display different patterns between countries and the same happens within each country from a sectoral perspective. Major drivers of improvements of overall energy efficiency were the intensity effect and the affluence effect, whereas the driver that hampered those improvements was the energy consumption per capita. Some policy implications derived from the results achieved are: policy decision-makers should support measures that promote the adoption of energy-saving technologies resulting from new technological developments; policy measures should be directed to raise awareness of end-users regarding energy efficiency and energy conservation efforts; policy measures promoting economic growth through the development (or expansion) of sectors of activity that consume less energy can also be implemented; finally, policy instruments may also be used to reduce the costs of implementing energy efficiency and energy-saving measures to households and firms.     

激励与约束如何影响农户生物农药施用行为——兼论约束措施的调节作用

农业的绿色发展依赖于农户生产行为的绿色化转变,这一转变不仅与农户自身、家庭等内在因素有关,还受外在因素的激励与约束。基于湖北省719户农户的调查数据,根据农户追求利益和损失厌恶的特征,将农户在生产过程中面对的外在激励与约束纳入一个框架,探讨了激励与约束措施对农户施用生物农药这一绿色生产行为的影响以及约束措施的调节作用。结果表明:(1)价格激励、技术培训、政策补贴的正向刺激和生产监管、处罚的反向规制均能对农户生物农药施用行为产生显著正向影响;(2)价格激励的影响效果最大,处罚约束次之,随后是技术培训、政策补贴,而生产监管的作用最小;(3)约束措施能在一定程度上调节激励措施对农户施用生物农药的影响,且在不同的激励与约束措施下,调节作用的方向不同,生产监管、处罚力度正向调节价格激励的作用,市场监管正向调节技术培训的作用,而生产监管却削弱了技术培训原有的效果。因此,在促进农户施用生物农药和绿色生产时,要做到激励与约束并重,并对激励与约束措施进行合理搭配,放大激励与约束的协同作用。     

The transition in Dutch water management

Over the past decades, the Dutch people have been confronted with severe water-related problems, which are the result of an unsustainable water system, arising from human interventions in the physical infrastructure of the water system and the water management style. The claims of housing, industry, infrastructure and agriculture have resulted in increasing pressure on the water system. The continuous subsidence of soil and climate change has put pressure on the land. Hence, the nature and magnitude of water-related problems have changed. Longitudinal research of relevant national policy documents reveals that the water management regime has changed its water management style over the past 30 years from a technocratic scientific style towards an integral and participatory style. We have investigated if the historical development in Dutch Water management can be characterized as a transition. Based on longitudinal research through an integrated systems analysis, document research and expert interviews, we have reconstructed the historical narrative by using the transition concepts of multi-level and multi-phase. This research indicates that the shift in Dutch Water management can be characterized as a transition. This transition is currently in the take-off stage and near the acceleration stage. This is a crucial stage as long as the considerable gap between the strategic macro-vision and the practical implementation at the micro-level remains. As long as these levels are not compatible (modulation), the transition will not be completed successfully. Transition management as multi-level governance model should therefore be adopted to facilitate the modulation.     

Effective coordination and integration of energy and transport policies for CO2 mitigation in Thailand

Cross-cutting government policies that are designed to mitigate CO₂ emissions have caused an increased interdependence between government agencies. This leads to fragmentation in the public administration of climate change mitigation. The need for more coordination among government agencies involved in drafting and implementing energy and transportation policies is necessary to create collaborative strategies that can affect energy demand and reduce CO₂ emissions. The study aims to use Thailand as a case study to examine and discuss how effective coordination and integration of energy and transport policies and actions in the domain of GHG mitigation in Thailand can be successful. The authors applied a mixed-method information gathering approach combined with data from panel discussions. A thorough literature review guided the evidence, which was reinforced by the expert opinions of 35 industry professionals and governmental officers. Importance-performance analysis was applied as a policy assessment method. The study proposes applying a combination of several factors and conditions regarding institutional aspects of transport and energy sectors into a new greater strategies and actions toward CO₂ mitigation. In findings, a combination of instruments and autonomy of sectors is the greatest important and successful opportunity to enable effective coordination and integration of policies for CO₂ mitigation. Insightful discussions on integrated approach and recommendations would contribute to collaboratively administrative mechanism.     

基于农户视角的秸秆机械化 还田服务绩效评价及其障碍因子诊断——来自冀、鲁、皖、鄂四省的调查

农户是秸秆机械化还田服务的直接受益者,从农户视角来评价秸秆还田服务绩效水平,并诊断其可能的障碍因子,可为提高秸秆还田服务绩效提供决策依据。从秸秆还田服务过程和秸秆还田服务结果两个阶段、农户经济人属性和社会人属性两个方面构建秸秆机械化还田服务绩效评价指标体系,采用基于熵权改进的TOPSIS法和障碍度模型,通过对冀、鲁、皖、鄂四省农户的问卷调查,评价秸秆机械化还田服务绩效水平及障碍因子。结果显示：山东省秸秆机械化还田服务绩效水平为“优秀”,河北省的绩效水平“一般”,湖北省和安徽省绩效水平“较差”。秸秆机械化还田服务绩效水平最重要的影响因素是农户对秸秆机械化还田结果的评价,其次是还田过程阶段的评价;影响秸秆机械化还田服务绩效水平的主要因子为还田服务后社会发展情况、耕地病虫害情况、还田政策补贴及还田后耕地熵情的评价。为此,提高秸秆机械化还田服务的绩效水平,加强对秸秆机械化还田服务的宣传推广,积极完善秸秆机械化还田补贴等政策措施,提高还田后配套化设施及服务供给,应是当前政策关注的重心。     

农村税费改革对农业土地利用的影响:一个宏观评价

以取消农业税和加大农业补贴力度为主要特征的农村税费改革，是近年来中国农村地区的一次重大制度改革。为探讨其对农业土地利用的影响，在简要回顾农村税费改革主要历程的基础上，通过构建计量经济模型，从宏观层面分析验证了农村税费改革对农业土地利用规模和利用效率的具体影响。结果表明: 农村税费改革对农业土地利用的影响主要体现为农户行为响应产生的引致效应；无论是农业税的取消还是财政支农政策的加强都对农业土地利用规模的扩大产生了显著影响；而农村税费改革对农业土地利用效率的影响则并不明显。为此，中国政府今后仍需在农业补贴支出结构以及相关配套政策创新方面进一步优化     

New perspectives on the energy return on (energy) investment (EROI) of corn ethanol

Research on corn ethanol is overly focused on whether corn ethanol is a net energy yielder and, consequently, has missed some other fundamental issues, including (1) whether there is significant error associated with current estimates of the EROI of corn ethanol, (2) whether there is significant spatial variability in the EROI of corn ethanol production, (3) whether yield increases will translate linearly to increases in EROI, (4) the extent to which assumptions about co-product credits impact the EROI of corn ethanol, and (5) how much of the ethanol production from biorefineries is net energy. We address all of these concerns in this research by: (1) performing a meta-error analysis of the calculation of EROI, (2) calculating the EROI for 1,287 counties across the United States, and (3) performing a sensitivity analysis for the values of both yield and co-products within the calculation of EROI. Our results show that the average EROI calculated from the meta-error analysis was 1.07 ± 0.2, meaning that we are unable to assert whether the EROI of corn ethanol is greater than one. The average EROI calculated across 1,287 counties in our spatial analysis was 1.01, indicating that the literature tended to use optimal values for energy inputs and outputs compared to the average conditions across the Unites States. Increases in yield had a trivial impact on EROI, while co-product credits had a large impact on EROI. Based on our results from the spatial analysis and the location of biorefineries across the United States, we conclude that the net energy supplied to society by ethanol is only 0.8% of that supplied from gasoline. Recent work indicates that only energy sources extracted at EROIs of 3:1 or greater have the requisite net energy to sustain the infrastructure of the transportation system of the United States. In light of this work, we conclude that production of corn ethanol within the United States is unsustainable and requires energy subsidies from the larger oil economy.     

林业产业集群竞争力研究

林业产业集群竞争力的定量评价是林业产业竞争力水平分析和政策制定的重要基础。GEM模型是当前产业集群竞争力评价研究中最具影响力的模型,本文以GEM模型为基础,考虑了林业产业近年来受到政策和社会因素的重要影响,提出了将政策环境和社会环境作为第四个因素对而对GEM模型做出拓展,构建GEMS模型,以适用于林业产业集群竞争力的评价。在此基础上,本文建立了林业产业集群竞争力的GEMS评价指标体系,提出了指标赋值标准,并且在量化过程中提出了最终GEMS得分的评价标准。运用GEMS模型及指标体系可以对林业产业竞争力水平的衡量以及类似产业间的比较,并据此做出合理的应对措施。     

中国新能源汽车产业的政策变迁与政策工具选择

伴随着新能源汽车产业的发展,中国政府有关新能源汽车产业政策也在不断地跟进。梳理相关产业政策变迁之中的内在逻辑,分析政策工具的选择是一项极为重要的任务。本文基于政策框架理论及其分析方法,对有关新能源汽车研究文献进行了分析,将关注重点从政策的评价转到从历史的角度关注新能源政策变迁的推动力上。政策变迁是与其动力因素密切相关的,这些动力因素又总是体现为政策变迁的主导力量。在中国新能源汽车产业的政策变迁历程中,其主导力量或政策制定的主要影响因素不断变化,中国新能源汽车的发展政策也可以分为政府主导、汽车厂商主导和消费者主导的三个阶段。政策变迁体现了政策本身的社会价值。基于中国新能源汽车发展的各种不同政策要素及其相关性,本文发现,在中国新能源汽车产业的组织性政策工具、管制性政策工具、经济诱因性政策工具、信息性政策工具和资源性政策工具这五个方面,经济诱因性工具和信息性工具应该是推动新能源汽车产业的关键工具,组织性和管制性工具只适用于产业化初期,后期应逐渐减少,而自愿性工具在新能源汽车产业市场完善前不提倡使用,在该产业市场得到完善后可以成为政府的选择之一。经过研究发现,在新能源汽车产业发展过程中,政府应注意自身的作用范围,适当处理市场与政府规制的便捷,降低交易成本,提高规制效率,是未来产业化政策工具选择应重点关注的环节。同时,政府必须在政策上致力于技术创新,把通过技术创新推动新能源汽车产业发展作为重要的政策目标。