Envisioning the digital sustainability panopticon: a thought experiment of how big data may help advancing sustainability in the digital age

The starting point for a theoretical vision of digital big data and sustainability builds on the situation of a currently unsustainable world threatening present and future generations regarding all three dimensions of sustainability. Given the paradigmatic changes the era of Big Data brings about, this paper proposes a thought experiment based on Bentham’s panopticon theory, where real-time data availability offers technical opportunities to promote and transform sustainability in a preceded way. Hence, different panopticon theories are discussed and merged with the concept of sustainability to arrive at the concept of the Digital Sustainability Panopticon defined by six criteria. This vision is framed by the ten “quality criteria for visions and visioning in sustainability science” (Wiek and Iwaniec 2014) and critically discussed regarding the totalitarian potential of digital surveillance and the paradox of freedom.     

From poverty trap to ecosystem service curse

In spite of broad and positive expectations, payments for ecosystem services (PES) can bring about unexpected and negative consequences, especially in terms of their impacts on the well-being of local communities dependent on ecosystems. Based on numerous observations of recurring problems with PES, we put forward an ecosystem service curse hypothesis (Kronenberg and Hubacek in Ecol Soc 18:art.10. doi: 10.5751/ES-05240-180110, 2013), that points to counterintuitive negative development outcomes for countries and regions rich in ecosystem services. The social and economic problems that we have been able to depict in many PES schemes reflect the persistence of maladaptive states in pursuit of sustainability. Instead of providing an opportunity to break out of poverty, these problems reflect entrapment, which is most often related to poor quality of institutions. Here we highlight the linkages between the ecosystem service curse hypothesis and the dynamic system stability landscapes discussed in this special issue. Our article consists of three parts in which we: (1) present the original ecosystem service curse hypothesis; (2) link this hypothesis to the broader discussions relevant to sustainability science; and (3) highlight the context of traps on which this special feature focuses.     

Who is susceptible and why? An agent-based approach to assessing vulnerability to drought

In this paper, we specify susceptibility to drought from a psychology-based bottom-up perspective. On the basis of the protection motivation theory (Rippetoe and Rogers in J Pers Soc Psychol 52(3):596–604, 1987), we developed the protection-capacity model (Krömker and Mosler in Global environmental change in Alpine regions: impact, recognition, adaptation, and mitigation. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp 93–112, 2002) to analyse the susceptibility with respect to the protection capacity of agents. The protection capacity is determined by the agents’ subjective assessment of the situation, which consists of the appraisal of threat, on the one hand, and the coping appraisal, on the other hand. Additionally, the protection-capacity model specifies several factors which influence the two central appraisal processes. Empirical data were collected in interviews with experts and with a total of 65 exemplarily selected households which are typical for the respective case study regions (Andhra Pradesh, India; Algarve and Alentejo, Portugal; Volgograd and Saratov, Russia). The data were analysed with the help of fuzzy set methodology. Results show that the households of the Indian region are the most susceptible when compared to those of the Russian region with ‘low’ and to households of the Portuguese region with a ‘very low’ degree of susceptibility. Moreover, we identified subgroups within the regions which are characterized by different degrees of susceptibility and a different profile of factors influencing susceptibility. Altogether, the agent-based perspective allows identifying relevant factors that need to be addressed to minimize susceptibility of the population and special subgroups. However, the results are not representative for the case study regions because of the small database. Additionally, more effort is needed to validate the findings.     

Food security and ecological footprint of coastal zone of Bangladesh

This paper presents the present status of food security and ecological footprint, an indicator of environmental sustainability of the coastal zones of Bangladesh. To estimate the present status of the food security and ecological footprint of the coastal zone of Bangladesh, primary and secondary data were collected, and the present status of food security and environmental degradation (in terms of ecological footprint) were calculated. To estimate the household food security, primary data were also collected from all the households in a representative selected village. A quantitative method for computation of food security in grain equivalent based on economic returns (price) is developed, and a method of measuring sustainable development in terms of ecological footprint developed by Wackernagel is used to estimate the environmental sustainability (Wackernagel and Rees in Our ecological footprint: reducing human impact on the earth. New Society, Gabrioala, BC, 1996; Chambers et al. in Sharing nature’s interest-ecological footprint as an indicator of sustainability. Earthscan, London, 2000). Overall status of food security at upazila levels is good for all the upazilas except Shoronkhola, Shyamnager and Morrelgonj, and the best is the Kalapara upazila. But the status of food security at household levels is poor. Environmental status in the coastal zones is poor for all the upazilas except Kalapara and Galachipa. The worst is in the Mongla upazila. Environmental status has degraded mainly due to shrimp culture. This study suggests that control measures are needed for affected upazilas and any further expansion of the shrimp aquaculture to enhance the food security must take into account the environmental aspects of the locality under consideration.     

Crossing technology and sustainability in cities’ development

This paper deals with sustainability in cities and the role technology plays in furthering sustainable results. Recently, many interventions have been implemented in cities to propose paths and models promoting the sustainability of cities from an overall perspective. Technologies are favouring the achievement of aims recalling the three spheres of sustainability as proposed by Arcadis (2017), namely “planet”, “profit”, and “people”. The ties between technology and the three spheres are investigated through a content analysis of reports issued by the 10 cities with the most significant advances in terms of becoming sustainable cities, as indicated in the Arcadis Report 2016. The results highlight technology as an element crossing sustainability, as processes and models in cities management and service provisions to citizens are significantly changing. New tools are innovating the processes addressing environmental issues, thus leading to cost efficiency and better economic conditions. Parallel to this, new models for city management and the provision of public services are addressing the need for a better quality of life for citizens and cities’ other stakeholders. Technology itself is thought of as sustainable because it should lead to efficiency and being efficient itself. A qualitative cluster analysis and a focus on excerpts from reports are proposed to highlight the ties between technologies and the elements representing key issues in managing and leading a city towards more sustainable conditions.     

The development of a sustainable urban district in Hammarby Sjöstad,Stockholm, Sweden?

By 2012, Hammarby Sjöstad, a former large industrial harbor area in southern Stockholm, Sweden, will be a fully developed residential district containing approximately 11,000 apartments and accommodating 35,000 people. The transformation of the area began in 1996, and the development soon became renowned for its ambitious environmental program, inspired by Agenda 21 (United Nations in Rio declaration on environment and development. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), Rio de Janeiro, 1992) and the Sydney 2000 Olympics in Australia (Newman in Landsc Urban Plan 44:219–226, 1999). Using results based on literature reviews, in-depth interviews, discussions with focus groups, and quantitative data, this paper attempts to gain insight into how the environmental program influenced the planning and performance of the district with regard to sustainable urban development. In doing so, three important conclusions were maintained that could be valuable for similar projects concerning the planning and development of sustainable urban districts. First, the environmental program proved vital to the development process of Hammarby Sjöstad, specifically in its drive to create a sustainable urban district. When planning on improving the sustainability of future districts, such a program should be introduced and integrated earlier in the planning stage of the district. Second, the metabolic flows of Hammarby Sjöstad were reduced as a result of the integrated system—the Hammarby Model—of Hammarby Sjöstad. In order to reduce the metabolic flows in future urban districts even further, it is important to facilitate the integration of technical innovations into existing integrated systems. Third, this case study showed that there was a loss of valid and credible data related to the aims and goals of the environmental program of Hammarby Sjöstad. In future urban districts, it is of the utmost importance to include a clear structure of the assessment process in the environmental program, which would ensure the quality of gathered data and facilitate the development of even better sustainable urban districts in the future.     

Energy–growth nexus revisited: an empirical application on transition countries

This study investigates the energy–growth nexus for transition countries analysing Granger causality between GDP growth per capita and energy use per capita. For this purpose, 17 countries located at Central and Eastern Europe and Caucasian region are chosen and a panel dataset consisting of these countries for the available period of 1990–2011 is studied. In the study, Granger causality is investigated using bootstrapped panel causality approach proposed by Konya (Econ Modell 23(6):978–992, 2006). The approach gives consistent results in case of cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity of slope coefficients between countries. Causality is examined for two scenarios: one with a trend and one without a trend. The results reveal that, in general, there is no causality running between energy consumption and economic growth, yet there is causality running from energy consumption to economic growth for some countries and sign of the relationship is always negative. Therefore, increases in energy consumption harm economic growth.     

City Blueprints: baseline assessments of water management and climate change in 45 cities

Climate change and urbanization are among the most significant trends of the twenty-first century, affecting global natural resources such as water, economic development and human well-being. The growth of the world population will be absorbed by the cities. The necessity of cities adapting to these trends calls for radical changes in urban water management. In this paper, baseline assessments, i.e., City Blueprints, have been carried out for 45 municipalities and regions in 27 countries, mainly in Europe. The assessments showed that cities vary considerably with regard to their water management. This is also captured in the Blue City Index^® (BCI), the arithmetic mean of 24 indicators comprising the City Blueprint^®. Theoretically, the BCI has a minimum score of 0 and a maximum score of 10. The actual BCIs in the 45 cities and regions varied from 3.5 (Kilamba Kiaxi in Angola) to 8.5 (Helsingborg in Sweden). The BCI was positively and significantly correlated with the gross domestic product per person, the ambitions of the local authorities regarding water management, the voluntary participation index and governance indicators according to the World Bank (2013). The study also demonstrated a very significant correlation between the BCI and the University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index. The impacts of water scarcity and floods in cities are discussed. It is concluded that cities in transitional and developing countries are particularly at risk.     

Bacteriological quality of fresh produce and link to water and sanitation service access from informal markets in Mzuzu,Malawi

In 2010, the global burden of foodborne diseases was 33 million Disability-adjusted life years, and 40 % of this burden was for children under 5 years old (Havelaar et al. 2015). Our study site was informal public markets within Mzuzu, Malawi, visited between September and December 2015, during the dry season. From these markets, fresh vegetables, leafy greens (n = 85), tomato (n = 85), and green pepper (n = 35) were analyzed for Escherichia coli. The prevalence of E. coli was highest on leafy greens; it was found in 74 (87 %) of the 85 samples. The prevalence of E. coli in green peppers was found in 2 (6 %) of the 35 samples. The prevalence of E. coli was lowest on tomatoes; it was found in only 1 (1 %) of the 85 samples. The lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure in market areas may be contributing to the bacteriological contamination of fresh produce. Providing venders with free access to market area toilets containing hand-washing facilities with soap and wash water with a chlorine solution may reduce bacterial contamination of fresh produce. Universal and sustainable access to water and sanitation services must include informal public market areas to reduce diarrheal diseases transmitted through food within Sub-Saharan Africa countries.     

Whose values count: is a theory of social choice for sustainability science possible?

If sustainability science is to mature as a discipline, it will be important for practitioners to discuss and eventually agree upon the fundamentals of the paradigm on which the new discipline is based. Since sustainability is fundamentally a normative assertion about tradeoffs among values, how society chooses the specifics among these tradeoffs is central to the sustainability problem. Whose values should count in making social decisions and how should the multiplicity of values that exist be known and used in that decision process? Given the vast spatial domains and temporal domains at work in the sustainability problem, we need some means of reconciling the inevitably divergent choices depending on whose values we count, how we know what those values are, and how we count them in making social decisions. We propose an approach to dealing with these questions based on Rawls (A theory of justice. Belknap Press, Cambridge, 1971) and explore the problems inherent in a social choice theory for sustainability science.     

Legitimacy,access, and the gridlock of tiger conservation: lessons from Melghat and the history of central India

Though tiger conservationists almost ubiquitously acknowledge the necessity of landscape approaches and the involvement of local people for effective tiger conservation, reconciling these two needs presents certain challenges for practitioners. Seeking to address both local exigencies and conservation goals, state-sponsored ecodevelopment initiatives have become commonly associated with Project Tiger reserves in India. However, in this essay I argue that by focusing on the proximate sources of tension between tiger conservation and local people (i.e., human–tiger conflict, habitat degradation, and prey depletion), these programs have reinforced the ultimate causes of such tension: the structural inequalities that exists between local people and state organizations. By linking the historical literature with my own fieldwork in the Melghat Tiger Reserve of the Central Indian Highlands, I show how the current structure of ecodevelopment largely mirrors that of colonial forestry by attempting to enforce natural resource property rights in a way that privileges the state and delegitimizes local relational mechanisms of access to natural resources. In doing so, ecodevelopment reflects the political structure that facilitated the rise of conflicts between tigers and people and reinforces the “gridlock of tiger conservation” (Rastogi et al. 2012). With this political ecology perspective, I advocate solidarity between conservation practitioners, local people, and state organizations in addressing these structural problems to further conservation efforts. Emphasizing co-management’s ability to accommodate multi-scalar forms of authority, I end by offering three lessons for conservation from Melghat’s experience with colonial forestry and ecodevelopment.     

Evaluating knowledge integration and co-production in a 2-year collaborative learning process with smallholder dairy farmer groups

Although knowledge integration and co-production are integral to transdisciplinary approaches to foster sustainable change in social–ecological systems, this type of research is usually not evaluated based on assessments of the learning process. While participants are meant to be central in such approaches, too often, their perspectives are not central to the evaluation. Moreover, there is limited empirical information about how new knowledge is transformed into action. We respond to these knowledge gaps by analyzing (A) farmers’ perspectives on the collaborative learning process and (B) how farmers’ new knowledge can serve as the basis for changed actions. Theoretically, we are guided by second-order cybernetics and have integrated the Control Loop Model with Learning Loops to extend Kirkpatrick (Evaluating training programs: the four levels, 2nd edn. Berrett-Koehler Publisher, San Francisco, 1998) four-level evaluation scheme. We apply this to evaluate a 2-year collaborative learning process with two smallholder dairy farmer groups in Nakuru County, Kenya that aimed to co-develop local sustainable pathways to reduce milk losses. Results showed that farmers learned by (1) implementing corrective actions based on known cause–effect relations (single-loop learning); (2) discovering new cause–effect relations and testing their effect (double-loop learning); and (3) further questioning and changing their aims (triple-loop learning). Highlighting the importance of knowledge integration and co-production, this collaboration between farmers, researchers, and field assistants improved the farmers’ ability to respond, adapt, and intentionally transform their farming system in relation with complex sustainability challenges. Results demonstrate that the potential of our evaluation scheme to better reflect learning and empowerment experienced by actors involved in transdisciplinary research for sustainability.     

The Zambian Resource Curse and its influence on Genuine Savings as an indicator for “weak” sustainable development

The empirical evidence that economies predominantly reliant on their natural resources are characterized by slower economic growth—the so-called Resource Curse (RC)—is in many ways confirmed by the case of Zambia. Haber and Menaldo (Am Polit Sci Rev 105(1):1–26, 2011) identify Zambia’s extreme dependence on copper exports as one of the worldwide most striking examples for a country suffering from this “curse.” In topical literature, the RC is traced back to the generation of natural resource rents regardless of economic performance, which among other problems leads to suboptimal reinvestment. The World Banks indicator for the “weak” sustainable development of a country—the so-called Genuine Savings (GS)—considers exactly this reinvestment of rents from the depletion of natural capital rents into physical or human capital. Although it has been shown empirically that countries dependent on primary exports on average feature negative GS rates and that the determinants of the RC influence both present economic growth and future sustainability as measured by GS, no case studies have been conducted to confirm this. Against this background, we qualitatively survey the relationship between the most discussed determinants causing the RC in Zambia and the country’s GS rate. We show that all theoretical relationships between the GS rates of a country and RC determinants such as consumption behavior, volatile world market prices, the so-called Dutch disease as well as political and institutional structures apply to Zambia between 1964 and 2010: an extreme dependency on copper exports and insufficient reinvestments of income from the depletion of Zambia’s natural capital constitutes one of the main reasons for slow growth and negative GS until the copper price booms in the second half of the 2000s.     

Urban tinkering

Cities are currently experiencing serious, multifaceted impacts from global environmental change, especially climate change, and the degree to which they will need to cope with and adapt to such challenges will continue to increase. A complex systems approach inspired by evolutionary theory can inform strategies for policies and interventions to deal with growing urban vulnerabilities. Such an approach would guide the design of new (and redesign of existing) urban structures, while promoting innovative integration of grey, green and blue infrastructure in service of environmental and health objectives. Moreover, it would contribute to more flexible, effective policies for urban management and the use of urban space. Four decades ago, in a seminal paper in Science, the French evolutionary biologist and philosopher Francois Jacob noted that evolution differs significantly in its characteristic modes of action from processes that are designed and engineered de novo (Jacob in Science 196(4295):1161–1166, 1977). He labeled the evolutionary process “tinkering”, recognizing its foundation in the modification and molding of existing traits and forms, with occasional dramatic shifts in function in the context of changing conditions. This contrasts greatly with conventional engineering and design approaches that apply tailor-made materials and tools to achieve well-defined functions that are specified a priori. We here propose that urban tinkering is the application of evolutionary thinking to urban design, engineering, ecological restoration, management and governance. We define urban tinkering as:

A mode of operation, encompassing policy, planning and management processes, that seeks to transform the use of existing and design of new urban systems in ways that diversify their functions, anticipate new uses and enhance adaptability, to better meet the social, economic and ecological needs of cities under conditions of deep uncertainty about the future.

This approach has the potential to substantially complement and augment conventional urban development, replacing predictability, linearity and monofunctional design with anticipation of uncertainty and non-linearity and design for multiple, potentially shifting functions. Urban tinkering can function by promoting a diversity of small-scale urban experiments that, in aggregate, lead to large-scale often playful innovative solutions to the problems of sustainable development. Moreover, the tinkering approach is naturally suited to exploring multi-functional uses and approaches (e.g., bricolage) for new and existing urban structures and policies through collaborative engagement and analysis. It is thus well worth exploring as a means of delivering co-benefits for environment and human health and wellbeing. Indeed, urban tinkering has close ties to systems approaches, which often are recognized as critical to sustainable development. We believe this concept can help forge much-closer, much-needed ties among engineers, architects, evolutionary ecologists, health specialists, and numerous other urban stakeholders in developing innovative, widely beneficial solutions for society and contribute to successful implementation of SDG11 and the New Urban Agenda.

     

Framing for resilience through social learning: impacts of environmental stewardship on youth in post-disturbance communities

Civic ecology practices, such as community gardening and citizen-led urban reforestation and wetland restoration, provide opportunities for social learning. Because social learning is an important component of community resilience, we suggest that civic ecology practices can be a strategy for responding to and mitigating environmental disturbances in an era threatened by climate change. Despite the links between civic ecology, social learning and community resilience, empirical research that systematically considers these connections is limited. This study addresses this gap by introducing ‘frames’ as an approach to considering social learning outcomes and process. More specifically, we provide a model for investigating the role civic ecology education programs play in shaping youths’ capacity to understand and respond to environmental disturbance. We used participant observation and cognitive mapping to assess social learning among three youth restoration programs working in the wake of Hurricane Sandy in New York, NY, and after the 2013 floods in Boulder, CO. In all three programs, youth demonstrated social learning and cognitive change by shifting their emphasis from the impacts of disturbance towards a solutions-based framing that focused on community, action, and mitigation. However, the depth of these changes was not uniform across all programs, suggesting that variations in program length, community context, social identity, and opportunities for self-defined action may shape overall impacts of programs and youth capacity for future action.     

Trends in seasonal precipitation and temperature in Slovenia during 1951–2007

A quality-controlled and enhanced database of 38 temperature and 52 precipitation stations was developed for Slovenia, a transitional area between Mediterranean, Alpine and continental climatic regimes, covering the period 1951–2007. Mean annual temperatures significantly increased in nearly all of Slovenia (except western areas) at rates between 0.15 and 0.36 °C/decade. Warming was most intense strongest in summer and spring in north-eastern Slovenia (0.3–0.4 °C/decade) and weakest in autumn. Precipitation trends were heterogeneous. Annual precipitation decreased significantly in the north-western part, at 3–6 % per decade. During spring and summer, decrease in rainfall by 3–6 % was detected in western Slovenia. No significant trends were found for the autumn season. In winter, precipitation decreased, by 3–12 % per decade, in particular in north-western Slovenia. As observed also elsewhere in Central Europe, changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns may have contributed to the observed long-term warming and drying in Slovenia. However, the strong warming in summer and spring, that is almost twice the trend observed in neighbouring countries, could be enhanced by drier soils caused by the decrease in winter precipitation in Slovenia.     

Last of the wild revisited: assessing spatial patterns of human impact on landscapes in Southern Patagonia,Chile

Human activities are continuously expanding at a global scale and having an increasing effect on the remaining natural ecosystems in remote areas, such as the Magellan Region of southern Patagonia, Chile. In addition to extensive livestock holdings, aquaculture and tourism are advancing into formerly undisturbed areas, and insufficient information on the spatial scope and intensity of these alterations is available to inform and support conservation policies. The aim of this study was to spatially analyse the degree, scope and spatial distribution of anthropogenic alterations. Accordingly, two spatially explicit indexes, the degree of anthropogenic alteration (DAA) and human influence index (HII), have been applied. The results show a significant spatial overestimation of the remaining undisturbed natural areas. Despite low population densities and extensive conservation designations, a major share of the total area has been anthropogenically altered. Depending on the measure type, between 53.1 % (DAA) and 68.1 % of the area (HII) needs to be considered as influenced by human activity in some way. Our findings challenge previous studies by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS and CIESIN in Last of the wild project, version 2, 2005 (LWP-2): last of the wild dataset (Geographic), NASA socioeconomic data and applications center (SEDAC), Palisades, 2005). Their worldwide assessment of pristine natural environments indicated that a much smaller part of the Magellan region has been subject to human influence. The chosen methodologies represent an opportunity to detect and monitor human influence at small spatial scales, which has heretofore remained unnoticed. Because such alterations are becoming more frequent in remote regions, the assessment approaches presented here provide important information on human–environment interactions to support land-use and nature conservation policy design. In addition, small-scale structures and different types of economic activities are considered to support policies that can protect the remaining natural areas from human encroachment. Moreover, implications of the proposed methodology for biodiversity conservation policy are discussed.     

Climate change and natural disasters: macroeconomic performance and distributional impacts

Commonly occurring natural events become natural disasters when they affect the population through death and injury, and/or through the destruction of natural and physical capital on which people rely for their livelihood and quality of life. Climate change plays a role in that it tends to increase the frequency and intensity of weather-related natural disasters. Additionally, climate change may put people at risk by influencing access to water, coastal flooding, disease and hunger, and leaving them with a more degraded environment, leading, in turn, to increased vulnerability. The purpose of this paper is to present a review and synthesis of the literature and case studies addressing differential impacts of climate change-related natural disasters on a society and its economy. Developed and developing countries show different vulnerabilities to natural disasters. Even within countries, impacts vary significantly across population and economic sectors. When losses from natural disasters are large, their cumulative effect can have notable macroeconomic impacts, which feed back to further pronounce existing income inequalities and lower income levels. Impacts tend to be most pronounced for women, the young and elderly, and people of ethnic or racial minorities.