Public perception of drought and climate change in southeast England

Droughts occur as a natural feature of many climates. Several southern areas of the UK experienced water stress during 2004–2006 because of low water availability and high water demand. Climate change scenarios suggest that drought frequency could increase here in the future. This will increase the competition for water across all sectors. Understanding people's perceptions of drought and climate change is likely to be an important factor for sustainable water management by pointing to barriers to behavioural change. A mixed methodology study using questionnaires and focus groups was conducted in the Anglian and southern regions of the UK to explore public perceptions of drought and climate change. Respondents attributed the 2004–2006 regional drought to lower than average rainfall. Water-intensive lifestyles, a growth in population, increasing housing developments, leaking pipes and the privatization of water companies were also implicated. The majority of respondents claimed to change their behaviour to conserve water during 2006. Regarding the future, and under a number of different scenarios, people were more inclined to accept restrictions than agree to pay more to ensure the supply of water. They were concerned about climate change and recognized that more frequent water shortages may be one of the impacts, but this concern did not necessarily translate into action. Barriers to engagement with climate change and water-efficient behaviour included a lack of accessible information, a lack of knowledge regarding the integration of environmental spheres, a lack of resources, and a perceived lack of institutional engagement. The barriers identified appear to pose a major challenge to successful adaptation to climate change.     

我国水稻对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性

采用PRECIS模型输出的B2气候情景,结合CERES-Rice作物模型数据,依据产量的变化率和GIS技术对我国未来(21世纪70年代)水稻的气候变化敏感性和脆弱性进行了研究.结果表明:受气候变化影响,未来我国绝大部分地区的雨养水稻将会减产,仅个别地区有增产趋势.负敏感区(减产区)主要集中在东北的辽宁和赤峰、华北平原大部、江淮及东南沿海地区;而在黑龙江西南部、福建大部、陕西与四川交界地区的雨养水稻有增产趋势.我国的灌溉水稻也以减产为主,负敏感区主要集中在辽宁、吉林西部、华北地区、陕西、宁夏、新疆南部、淮河流域、长江中下游及其以南广大水稻主产区;增产区主要集中在黑龙江西南部、内蒙古东部地区及陕西与湖北交界等地.未来我国雨养水稻的脆弱区主要分布在:(1)东北地区的中南部;(2)山东北部及淮河流域;(3)南部沿海和海南岛;(4)西南地区.未来我国灌溉水稻的脆弱区面积较大,主要分布在辽宁、黄河中游和下游、新疆南部及广西大部地区.     

湖南省农业旱灾脆弱性综合分析与定量评价

旱灾是湖南省农业特别是粮食生产可持续发展的严重制约因素。在同一致灾强度下，灾情随灾害脆弱性的增强而加重，降低灾害脆弱性可减轻灾害造成的直接经济损失，因此农业旱灾脆弱性的研究对湖南省减灾和农业可持续发展具有特别重要的意义，湖南省自然生态环境和社会经济状况各异，农业旱灾脆弱性各地不同，选择降水量，蒸发量，水利化程度等9个指标综合评价了各个县市的旱灾脆弱性，并利用GIS技术进行旱灾脆弱性区划，结果表明，湘中衡邵盆地和湘西北山地是农业旱灾严重脆弱带，湖南山地区为强度旱灾脆弱带，沅麻盆地山地区为中度旱灾脆弱带，洞庭湖平原和湘东北山地旱灾脆弱性较小。     

Suburbanization and drought: A mixed methods vulnerability assessment in rainy Massachusetts

This paper presents evidence that water restrictions in suburbanizing eastern Massachusetts towns are becoming more common, controlling for climate. We then assess the relationship between these suburban droughts and residential development. Focusing on the suburbs of Boston, seven towns independent of the Boston water supply system were selected to represent differing levels of sprawl-style growth. Water restrictions are becoming more frequent in all of the towns studied, and models demonstrate that restrictions are increasing in duration, independent of climate. Interviews suggest that residential development is playing a central role in this increasing sensitivity to suburban drought, though other factors are also important. Long-term planning and integration of land-use planning and water management emerged as two key paths for attenuating the impacts of development.     

Suburbanization and drought: A mixed methods vulnerability assessment in rainy Massachusetts

This paper presents evidence that water restrictions in suburbanizing eastern Massachusetts towns are becoming more common, controlling for climate. We then assess the relationship between these suburban droughts and residential development. Focusing on the suburbs of Boston, seven towns independent of the Boston water supply system were selected to represent differing levels of sprawl-style growth. Water restrictions are becoming more frequent in all of the towns studied, and models demonstrate that restrictions are increasing in duration, independent of climate. Interviews suggest that residential development is playing a central role in this increasing sensitivity to suburban drought, though other factors are also important. Long-term planning and integration of land-use planning and water management emerged as two key paths for attenuating the impacts of development.     

Environmental knowledge and human experience: using a historical analysis of flooding in Ireland to challenge contemporary risk narratives and develop creative policy alternatives

Focusing on three of the largest coastal cities in the Republic of Ireland, this paper highlights the importance of a historical analysis of flood hazards in contextualising current events and potential future risks. Over the last decade, the cities of Dublin, Cork and Galway have experienced several major coastal, river and pluvial floods. In the aftermath of these floods, two distinct but related narratives have dominated public discourse and official responses. The first narrative presents recent floods as unprecedented and as possible evidence of climate change. The second constructs floods primarily as natural events and assumes that the optimal means of reducing flood losses is to prevent flood events. In this paper, I suggest that these narratives are not supported by a historical analysis of exposure and vulnerability to flood hazards in Irish cities. This paper draws primarily on newspaper archives to construct a record of past flooding that challenges these narratives in several ways and in doing so offers lessons for similar cities in other countries. I contend that these narratives are perpetuated by a narrow form of knowledge production (quantitative risk assessment) and a narrow range of data (numeric instrumental records). Incorporating a broader range of sources and data types into risk and vulnerability assessments may illuminate more creative strategies for reducing both contemporary and future flood losses.     

Calamity,kastom, and modernity: local interpretations of vulnerability in the western Pacific

On 2 April 2007 a large tsunami struck the small island of Simbo in the western Solomon Islands. It obliterated two villages, killed 10 people, and provoked communities on the northern half of the island to permanently relocate their settlements. In this article I examine how the Simbo people experienced and perceived this catastrophic event. Local discourses about the tsunami, its aftermath, and its selective lethality reveal how Simboans do not employ spiritual or naturalistic rationales to conceptualize vulnerability. Rather it is described in terms of the anxieties and novel opportunities associated with encroaching modernity and other exogenous large-scale social and economic processes. The case exemplifies the tensions and contradictions that arise when communities actively negotiate and trade-off one set of vulnerabilities for others as social and ecological contexts transform. I argue that an improved understanding of local interpretations of vulnerability is critical if our interest is to better cope with inevitable future ecological disturbances.     

古代黄河中游的环境变化和灾害——对都城迁移发展的影响

都城的选址、建设和迁移发展必须以环境资源为基础。我国古代的国家都城在黄河中游反复迁移，以至最后东迁南迁。在这个过程中，环境变迁和灾害一直是重要的驱动因素之一。通过统计分析历史时期洪涝和干旱灾害，以及气候水文变化资料，结合古都所在地的环境资源条件分析讨论，揭示了黄河中游环境变化和灾害对都城迁移发展的影响。都城在长安与洛阳之间的反复迁移，以及后来的东移开封，和南移到长江下游平原，环境的变迁是重要的驱动力之一。     

Risk,vulnerability, and pragmatic inevitability: the conflict–disaster nexus and urban governance in Johannesburg,South Africa

This paper spotlights post-disaster relief provision in Johannesburg, South Africa, following the floods of 2016 in a bid to explore how local government and non-governmental actors in the country conceive of compounding vulnerability and conflict within urban disaster governance. It reveals the diverse strategies employed to navigate violent conflict during the cyclical occurrence of disaster and reconstruction that the predominantly migrant population experiences in the Setswetla informal settlement, adjacent to the Alexandra township in northern Johannesburg. Rendered visible in moments of disaster and recovery are the spatial politics and multidimensional nature of conflict. These phenomena unfold across various levels of urban governance and in the affected community and effectively construct a disaster citizenship that makes risk reduction and community cohesion impossible in the eyes of disaster managers. This research, based on a set of expert interviews, integrates conflict and disaster studies to shed light on how the conflict–disaster interface materialises, and is operationalised, in an urban setting.     

The Changing Nature of Conflict and Famine Vulnerability: The Case of Livestock Raiding in Turkana District, Kenya

The context of famine in Turkana has changed in recent years as the role played by livestock raiding in contributing to famine has increased. External responses to famine in Turkana have largely been drought driven, for example, food assistance and livestock restocking programmes, which have failed to meet the real needs of herders. The role of armed conflict in the form of raiding has been overlooked as a common feature of societies facing famine and food insecurity.The traditional livelihood-enhancing functions of livestock raiding are contrasted with the more predatory forms common today. The direct impact of raiding on livelihood security can be devastating, while the threat of raids and measures taken to cope with this uncertainty undermine herders' livelihood strategies. Self-imposed restrictions on mobility negatively affect the vegetation of both grazed and ungrazed pastures and restrict the available survival strategies. Predatory raiding leads to a collapse in the moral economy. Some implications of this for relief and development policy are considered, including approaches to conflict resolution.     

Disaster risk, climate change and international development: scope for, and challenges to, integration

Reducing losses to weather-related disasters, meeting the Millennium Development Goals and wider human development objectives, and implementing a successful response to climate change are aims that can only be accomplished if they are undertaken in an integrated manner. Currently, policy responses to address each of these independently may be redundant or, at worst, conflicting. We believe that this conflict can be attributed primarily to a lack of interaction and institutional overlap among the three communities of practice. Differences in language, method and political relevance may also contribute to the intellectual divide. Thus, this paper seeks to review the theoretical and policy linkages among disaster risk reduction, climate change and development. It finds that not only does action within one realm affect capacity for action in the others, but also that there is much that can be learnt and shared between realms in order to ensure a move towards a path of integrated and more sustainable development.     

Climate,urbanisation and vulnerability to vector-borne disease in subtropical coastal Australia: Sustainable policy for a changing environment

This paper examines the current health policy response to the management of vector-borne disease (VBD), specifically Ross River (RR) virus, in subtropical coastal Australia. It demonstrates the multi-dimensional nature of the VBD problem and considers the value of more sustainable policy responses. The paper provides an integrated exploration of the incidence of RR virus in the context of socio-biophysical interactions and change, climate variability, and possible enhanced threat due to climate change. The study focuses on two subtropical coastal case study regions in Australia. Collectively, the existing and emerging socio-biophysical interactions in these regionsraise questions as to the future risks and management of RR virus, while climate change adds a significant further dimension. The paper demonstrates the need for the incorporation of environmental planning elements, particularly attention to strategic assessment and planning, into the traditional suite of health policy responses given the multi-dimensional nature of the problem and evident socio-biophysical environmental change.     

Building resilience to El Niño‐related drought: experiences in early warning and early action from Nicaragua and Ethiopia

Forecast‐based drought early warning/early action has been hampered by both inadequate decision‐making frameworks and a lack of appropriate funding mechanisms. Rural communities in Nicaragua and Ethiopia that have participated in resilience‐building interventions of varying durations demonstrate the value of community‐based actions informed by early warning, forecasts and drought management advice, both before and during the agricultural season. While drought affected all crops negatively, participants were better able to mitigate impacts, were more organised in accessing relief and recovered more effectively. These results are consistent with other research on the cost/benefit of anticipatory actions, use of climate services and appropriate drought management advice. They also confirm the importance of embedding short‐term early action in long‐term resilience‐building. Despite this, formal systems, national and local, remain essentially unimplemented. Systems being developed at global level now need to be operationalised and translated into effective local drought management standard operating procedures for the most vulnerable.     

"We all knew that a cyclone was coming": disaster preparedness and the cyclone of 1999 in Orissa, India

Imagine that a cyclone is coming, but that those living in the affected areas do nothing or too little to protect themselves. This is precisely what happened in the coastal state of Orissa, India. Individuals and communities living in regions where natural hazards are a part of daily life develop strategies to cope with and adapt to the impacts of extreme events. In October 1999, a cyclone killed 10,000 people according to government statistics, however, the unofficial death toll is much higher. This article examines why such a large loss of life occurred and looks at measures taken since then to initiate comprehensive disaster-preparedness programmes and to construct more cyclone shelters. The role of both governmental organisations and NGOs in this is critically analysed. The good news is that, based on an assessment of disaster preparedness during a small cyclone in November 2002, it can be seen that at community-level awareness was high and that many of the lessons learnt in 1999 were put into practice. Less positive, however, is the finding that at the state level collaboration continues to be problematic.     

Pinning down social vulnerability in Sindh Province,Pakistan: from narratives to numbers,and back again

This paper reflects critically on the results of a vulnerability assessment process at the household and community scale using a quantitative vulnerabilities and capacities index. It validates a methodology for a social vulnerability assessment at the local scale in 62 villages across four agro‐ecological/livelihood zones in Sindh Province, Pakistan. The study finds that the move from vulnerability narratives to numbers improves the comparability and communicational strength of the concept. The depth and nuance of vulnerability, however, can be realised only by a return to narrative. Caution is needed, therefore: the index can be used in conjunction with qualitative assessments, but not instead of them. More substantively, the results show that vulnerability is more a function of historico‐political economic factors and cultural ethos than any biophysical changes wrought by climate. The emerging gendered vulnerability picture revealed extremes of poverty and a lack of capacity to cope with contemporary environmental and social stresses.     

About bridges and bonds: community responses to the 2000 floods in Mabalane district, Mozambique

Massive floods hit Mozambique in 2000.1 Many of the affected regions benefited from external aid. This paper investigates how the floods impacted on two communities in the interior of the Limpopo Valley, which did not receive significant assistance during the event and in the immediate aftermath. Drawing on the livelihood approach, it focuses on the role of two types of local resources: knowledge and social capital. The paper shows that the scale of the 2000 floods surpassed the response capacity of these resources and looks at how wealth and gender influenced access by households to the local support mechanisms that enhance survival and recovery. It appears that the floods mainly affected wealthier households, as these more frequently lost houses and cattle. The paper points to the importance of ploughs and cattle for local support mechanisms, which, in turn, most likely reduced the capacities of communities to recover from the disaster.     

Tears,fears and cheers: responses to the post‐disaster school relocation policy in China

This paper reports on the results of a qualitative study on the responses of Chinese school children in one junior middle school and their parents to China's post‐disaster school relocation policy. The sample comprised 22 pairs of parent–child dyads and two pupils whose parents could not be contacted. The study results were reported using Chambers and Wedel's (2009) conceptual framework, which delineates the fundamental elements of a policy. Content analysis was used to generate themes related to policy elements, such as goals, benefits and services. Both repetitive themes and idiosyncratic perspectives were reported so as to present a diversity of views. Despite adjustment difficulties and administrative problems reported by the study participants, the policy attention given to the rapid restoration of formal schooling for children was generally appreciated. The move back to the new school was greeted with cheer.