Geo-spatial and log-linear analysis of pedestrian and bicyclist crashes involving school-aged children

PROBLEM: There is a growing concern with the safety of school-aged children. This study identifies the locations of pedestrian/bicyclist crashes involving school-aged children and examines the conditions when these crashes are more likely to occur. METHOD: The 5-year records of crashes in Orange County, Florida where school-aged children were involved were used. The spatial distribution of these crashes was investigated using the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the likelihoods of crash occurrence under different conditions were estimated using log-linear models. RESULTS: A majority of school-aged children crashes occurred in the areas near schools. Although elementary school children were generally very involved, middle and high school children were more involved in crashes, particularly on high-speed multi-lane roadways. Driver's age, gender, and alcohol use, pedestrian's/bicyclist's age, number of lanes, median type, speed limits, and speed ratio were also found to be correlated with the frequency of crashes. DISCUSSION: The result confirms that school-aged children are exposed to high crash risk near schools. High crash involvement of middle and high school children reflects that middle and high schools tend to be located near multi-lane high-speed roads. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The pedestrian's/bicyclist's demographic factors and geometric characteristics of the roads adjacent to schools associated with school children's crash involvement are of interest to school districts.     

西安市PM2.5污染的时空分布

为探索PM2.5的分布规律及其影响因素,对2013年西安市13个监测站点的全年ρ(PM2.5)数据进行了统计与整理.分析了ρ(PM2.5)的时空分布,采用聚类分析、小波变换研究了ρ(PM2.5)的区域分布特征与年际变化及突变特征,并对相关因素进行了探讨.结果表明,西安市ρ(PM2.5)在时间分布上具有冬高夏低的特点,而在空间分布上则以市人民体育场和草滩监测点所在区域为ρ(PM2.5)高值中心;ρ(PM2.5)在空间上可分为3大类,纺织城监测点单独为1类,经开区与草滩监测点为2类,另外10个监测点为3类,聚类效果的相关系数为0.7994,显示聚类效果较好;在ρ(PM2.5)年际变化中,除了6月和7月以外,其他月份ρ(PM2.5)均值为147.29 μg/m3,日照时间短和静风是导致ρ(PM2.5)发生突变的主要气象因素.     

基于时空分布特征的煤层瓦斯测压准确性研究

为获得真实可靠的现场实测煤层瓦斯压力,实现煤层突出灾害等级科学评价和精准防治,通过理论分析、数值模拟和现场验证相结合的方法,以双重孔隙介质为基础,根据煤层瓦斯流动模型和瓦斯压力恢复曲线,分析煤层瓦斯压力测定的时空分布及准确性,并以桃园煤矿Ⅱ1采区10煤层为例,开展工程验证.研究结果表明:当基质瓦斯压力与裂隙瓦斯压力处于...     

Considering built environment and spatial correlation in modeling pedestrian injury severity

Objective: This study looks at mitigating and aggravating factors that are associated with the injury severity of pedestrians when they have crashes with another road user and overcomes existing limitations in the literature by focusing attention on the built environment and considering spatial correlation across crashes.

Method: Reports for 6,539 pedestrian crashes occurred in Denmark between 2006 and 2015 were merged with geographic information system resources containing detailed information about the built environment and exposure at the crash locations. A linearized spatial logit model estimated the probability of pedestrians sustaining a severe or fatal injury conditional on the occurrence of a crash with another road user.

Results: This study confirms previous findings about older pedestrians and intoxicated pedestrians being the most vulnerable road users and crashes with heavy vehicles and in roads with higher speed limits being related to the most severe outcomes. This study provides novel perspectives by showing positive spatial correlations of crashes with the same severity outcomes and emphasizing the role of the built environment in the proximity of the crash.

Conclusions: This study emphasizes the need for thinking about traffic calming measures, illumination solutions, road maintenance programs, and speed limit reductions. Moreover, this study emphasizes the role of the built environment, because shopping areas, residential areas, and walking traffic density are positively related to a reduction in pedestrian injury severity. Often, these areas have in common a larger pedestrian mass that is more likely to make other road users more aware and attentive, whereas the same does not seem to apply to areas with lower pedestrian density.     

The effects of daylight saving time on vehicle crashes in Minnesota

Introduction: Daylight saving time (DST), implemented as an energy saving policy, impacts many other aspects of life; one is road safety. Based on vehicle crash data in Minnesota from 2001 to 2007, this paper evaluates long- and short-term effects of DST on daily vehicle crashes. Method: To provide evidence to explain the causes of more/fewer crashes in DST, we examine the impact of DST on crashes in four periods of a day: 3 a.m.-9 a.m., 9 a.m.-3 p.m., 3 p.m.-9 p.m., 9 p.m.-midnight. The effects of risk and exposure to traffic are also separated. Our statistical models not only include weather conditions and dummy variables for days in DST as independent variables, but also consider traffic volumes on major roads in different periods of a day. Our major finding is that the short-term effect of DST on crashes on the morning of the first DST is not statistically significant. Moreover, it is interesting to notice that while DST per se is associated with fewer crashes during dusk, this is in part offset because it is also associated with more traffic on roads (and hence more crashes). Our path analysis shows that overall DST reduces crashes. Impact on industry: Daylight saving time can lead to fewer crashes on roads by providing better visibility for drivers.     

我国涉水旅游安全事故的时空分布及成因研究*

为探究我国涉水旅游安全事故的时空分布特征及事故成因机制,提升旅游目的地安全管理水平。以2010—2018年我国旅行社责任险平台的1 752起涉水旅游安全事故保险案例为数据源,利用社会网络分析方法,并结合Ucinet可视化分析技术构建事故时空分布模型及事故成因模型。结果表明:在时空分布规律上,我国涉水旅游安全事故具有较强的时间导向性和空间异质性;在事故成因规律上,游览环境因素和游客自身因素是导致事故发生的主要原因,同时不同影响因素之间具有较强的关联性。研究结果有助于深化旅游者及安全管理人员对涉水旅游安全风险认知,为相关旅游目的地安全管理工作提供理论依据。     

人员非均匀分布条件下的疏散引导方向优化算法研究

在紧急疏散中,疏散引导标识或疏散引导人能够帮助人员快速找到最近出口,有效减少疏散时间。疏散引导标识或人的引导方向一般是根据建筑布局情况预先进行设计,当前位置的引导方向指向最近的疏散出口。本文综合考虑了建筑布局及人员分布情况,提出了人员非均匀分布条件下的疏散引导方向优化算法。该算法以Togawa疏散时间经验公式作为估价函数,通过多次迭代的方法,求解疏散引导方向的优化值。以双出口的疏散场景为例,利用疏散软件Legion对优化前后疏散引导方向下的疏散时间进行了比较分析。结果表明,优化后的疏散引导方向能够引导人员充分利用疏散出口,疏散时间较仅考虑建筑布局所设计的疏散引导方向的模拟值降低了近四分之一,大大提高了疏散效率。     

A study on chest injury mechanism and the effectiveness of a headform impact test for pedestrian chest protection from vehicle collisions

This study was aimed at investigating the injury mechanism of pedestrian chests in collisions with passenger vehicles of various frontal shapes and examining the influence of the local structural stiffness on the chest injury risk by using the headform impact test at the chest contact area of the vehicle. Three simulations of vehicle to pedestrian collisions were conducted using three validated pedestrian finite element (FE) models of three pedestrian heights of 177 (AM50th), 165 and 150 cm and three FE vehicles models representing a one-box vehicle, a minicar and a medium car. The validity of the vehicle models was evaluated by comparing the headform acceleration against the measured responses from headform impact tests. The chest impact kinematics and the injury mechanisms were analyzed in terms of the distribution of the von Mises stress of the ribcage and in terms of the chest deflections. The chest contact locations on the front panel and the bonnet top were identified in connection to the causation of rib fractures. The risk of rib fractures was predicted by using the von Mises stress distribution. The headform impact tests were carried out at the chest contact area on the front panel and bonnet to examine the safety performance with respect to pedestrian chest protection. In simulations of the one-box vehicle to pedestrian collisions, the chest was struck directly by the frontal structure at a high velocity and deformed substantially, since a shear force was generated by the stiff windshield frame. The acceleration of the headform was related to the rib deflections. The injury threshold of the ribcage deflection (42 mm) corresponded to the headform average acceleration of 68 G. In the minicar collision, the chest was struck with the bonnet top and cowl area at a low velocity, and the deformation was small due to the distributed contact force between the chest and the bonnet top. Besides, the ribcage deformation was too small for bridging a relation between the headform accelerations and rib deflections. In the medium car collision, the deformation mode of the chest was similar to that in the minicar collision. The chest collided with the bonnet top at a low velocity and deformed uniformly. The deflection of the ribs had an observable correlation with the headform accelerations measured in the headform impact tests. The frontal shape of a vehicle has a large influence on a pedestrian’s chest loadings, and the chest deformation depends on the size of the pedestrian and the stiffness of the vehicle. The one-box passenger vehicle causes a high chest injury risk. The headform impactor test can be utilized for the evaluation of the local stiffness of a vehicle’s frontal structure. The reduction of the headform acceleration is an effective measure for pedestrian chest protection for specific shapes of vehicles by efficacy in modifying the local structural stiffness.     

Comparison of Canadian firefighters and healthy controls based on submaximal fitness testing and strength considering age and gender

Introduction. Few studies have addressed whether firefighters are fitter than the general population and possess sufficient levels of aerobic capacity and muscle strength to perform on-duty tasks in a safe and efficient manner, considering age and gender. We aimed to evaluate the fitness levels of Hamilton firefighters, and to determine the effects of age and gender. Methods. In total, 89 participants were recruited. The modified Canadian aerobic fitness test was used to determine participants’ estimated maximal oxygen consumption (V_O2max) levels. For upper and lower body strength levels, a calibrated J-Tech hand-held dynamometer and a National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) lifting device was used respectively. Results. Firefighters’ mean (SD) V_O2max level was 40.30?±?6.25?ml·kg^?1·min^?1. Age proved to have a statistically significant impact on V_O2max (p?<?0.001). Gender displayed statistically significant effects on strength levels. Firefighters’ age was the only statistically significant independent variable, and accounted for 61.00% of the variance in firefighters’ aerobic capacity levels. Conclusions. Firefighters possessed somewhat similar aerobic capacities but much higher levels of body strength when compared with the general population. With age, firefighters’ aerobic capacities decreased; however, their upper and lower body strength levels remained the same.     

Responsibility of drivers, by age and gender, for motor-vehicle crash deaths

Problem: Motor-vehicle crash rate comparisons by age and gender usually are based on the extent to which drivers in a particular age/gender category are themselves injured or involved in crashes (e.g., the number of 20-year-old females in crashes). Basing comparisons instead on the extent to which drivers in various age/gender groups are responsible for deaths (including themselves) in their crashes is more revealing of their overall contribution to the problem. Methods: Data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS, 1996–2000) were used in the analysis, which was based on crashes that involved one or two vehicles only. Drivers in fatal single-vehicle crashes were assumed to have responsibility for the crash. In fatal two-vehicle crashes, driver operator errors reported by police were used to assign crash responsibility. Results: When all crashes were considered, both the youngest and oldest drivers were most likely to be responsible for deaths in their crashes. In two-vehicle crashes, the oldest drivers were more likely than young drivers to be responsible. Young males were more likely than young females to be responsible for crash deaths, whereas females in their 50s and older were more likely than same-age males to be responsible. In terms of responsibility for deaths per licensed driver, young drivers, especially males, had the highest rates because of their high involvement rates and high responsibility rates. The majority of deaths for which young drivers were responsible occurred to people other than themselves, especially passengers in their vehicles, whereas the bulk of the deaths for which older drivers were responsible were their own. Discussion: The results highlight the contribution of young drivers to the motor-vehicle crash problem, the need for measures such as passenger restrictions in graduated licensing systems, and the need for vehicle modifications to better protect older occupants.     

行人过街空间违章行为特性及安全影响分析

为探究提前右转车道处不同因素与人车冲突的相关性,以及行人空间违章对过街安全的影响。采集2 062个行人及人车冲突的样本数据,获取行人和机动车的时空信息,对比分析不同类型行人过街轨迹的特征;综合考虑人车冲突时间和速度指标构建人车冲突严重度指标,从行人生理特征、车流条件、道路环境等方面选取8个因素作为自变量,构建人车冲突严重度的多元有序Logistic模型。研究结果表明：空间违章过街的行人平均过街速度和速度离散程度都明显高于其他行人;年龄、车速、人行横道长度、车辆到达率以及过街轨迹类型都是影响人车冲突严重程度的重要因素。各类型空间违章行为使严重冲突占比均提升75%以上。研究结果有助于交管部门采取措施保障行人过街安全。     

Effect of pavement condition and geometrics at signalised intersections on casualty crashes

IntroductionThis study investigated the effects of pavement surface condition and other control factors on casualty crashes at signalized intersections. It involved conducting a before and after study for road surface condition and situational factors. It also included assessing the effects of geometric characteristics on safety performance of signalized intersections post resurfacing to control for the effect of pavement surface condition. Pavement surface condition included roughness, rutting, and skid resistance. The control factors included traffic volume, light and surface moisture condition, and speed limit. The geometric characteristics included approach width, number of lanes, intersection depth, presence of median, presence of shared lane, and presence of bus stop.MethodTo account for the repeated observations of the effect of light and surface moisture conditions in four occasions (day-dry, day-wet, night-dry and night-wet) Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) with Negative Binomial (NB) and log link function was applied. For each signalized intersection in the sample, condition data are collected for the year before and after the year of surface treatment. Crash data, however, are collected for a minimum of three and maximum of five years before and after treatment years.ResultsThe results show that before treatment, light condition, road surface moisture condition, and skid resistance interaction with traffic volume are the significant contributors to crash occurrence. For after treatment; light condition, road surface moisture condition, their interaction product, and roughness interaction with light condition, surface moisture condition, and traffic volume are the significant contributors. The geometric variables that were found to have significant effects on crash frequency post resurfacing were approach width interactions with presence of shared lane, bus stop, or median.ConclusionsThe findings confirm that resurfacing is significant in reducing crash frequency and severity levels.Practical Applications: The study findings would help for better understanding of how geometric characteristics can be improved to reduce crash occurrence.     

浅埋隧道下穿超近距密集管线施工变形时空特性研究

为分析浅埋隧道下穿密集管线施工地层与管线群变形时空特性,基于南昌地铁三号线邓埠站1号出入口暗挖隧道工程,利用理论分析、数值分析结合现场监测的方法进行研究。研究结果表明：隧道上方密集管线中位于前方的管线先承担开挖释放的部分土体应力,使其后方管线的变形大幅减小,平均减幅达23%;地层变形始终朝向掌子面,在掌子面到达时水平位移最大;因管线-土体共同作用,土体释放部分应力转移到地下管线,使地层沉降减小24%～38%,沉降槽宽度扩大40%;施工期间建议对污水管变形重点监测,在管线平均变形速率急速增大时,需提高监测频率。研究结果可为该地区相似工程施工提供参考。     

基于GIS的农田土壤重金属空间分布研究

以浙江省慈溪市快速城镇化的小城镇为研究区,研究其农田土壤中重金属的含量与分布状况.采用ArcGIS中的地统计分析模块研究土壤中重金属分布的空间变异性,最后应用Kriging方法进行空间插值作图.结果表明,研究区土壤中的重金属含量均已超出当地的背景值,含量变异系数较大的重金属是Hg和Cu,中等变异的是Zn,其他几种重金属变异系数相对较小.空间分布上,Cu、Cd、As的空间相关性较强,Zn、Ni、Hg居中,而Cr和Pb较弱.插值结果显示,土壤中Cu、Zn和Pb的高含量区主要位于东南部,Cd、Hg和Ni的含量由南向北逐渐减少,As和Cr的分布为西部高而中部较低,不同的分布特征是人类活动与土壤母质双重影响的结果.     

基于BP模型的南通市农田土壤重金属空间分布研究

利用采样点实测数据,借助BP神经网络模型并结合GIS技术对江苏省南通市农田土壤重金属的空间动态分布进行了详细地描述.结果表明,BP神经网络模型能够智能地学习各个采样点的空间位置与该点各重金属含量之间的映射关系,并能够稳健地对各个空问插值点处的土壤重金属含量进行预测.运用Arcgis进行的分析结果显示,在该地区Pb和As造成的污染最严重,其他重金属污染相对较轻.其中南通市区、海门市和启东市重金属富集最严重;南通大部、通州、如东大部分地区含量较少,含量最少的地区是如皋市和海安县.在运用神经网络模型进行空间插值了解重金属空间动态分布的基础上,可以根据污染的分布状况确定农产品的生产布局和规划.     

Effects of speed humps on vehicle speed and pedestrian crashes in South Korea

Introduction: Speeding is a crucial risk factor for pedestrian safety because it shortens reaction time while increasing the impact force in collisions. Various types of traffic calming measures to prevent speeding have been devised. A speed hump—a raised bump installed in the pavement—has been widely used for this purpose. Method: To evaluate the effectiveness of speed humps, the speed profiles of vehicles passing speed humps were analyzed along with pedestrian crash records near speed humps. Results: The speed profiles showed that vehicles gradually diminished their speeds starting 30 m ahead of speed humps and, immediately after passing the humps, accelerated to regain their original speeds within a distance of 30 m. This speed reduction effect is substantial on both local and major roads: 18.4% and 24.0% reduction in speeds, respectively. The analysis of pedestrian crash records revealed that, inside the zones of speed reduction effect near speed humps (i.e., ±30 m from speed humps), fewer pedestrian crashes per roadway distance occurred and pedestrian injuries were less severe, compared with events outside the effect zones. This safety improvement was greater on major roads than local roads. Practical Applications: This work finds that the speed reductions that occurred near speed humps were gradual and influential ±30 m from their locations, suggesting that the hump installations should be close enough to the pedestrian crossings. It is noteworthy that, albeit that speed humps are more prevalent on local roads, the benefits of speed reduction effects from speed humps were more pronounced on major roads than on local roads. Therefore, speed humps on major roads can be considered a more effective measure for pedestrian safety.     

The effects of minimum legal drinking age 21 laws on alcohol-related driving in the United States

Objective

To examine trends in alcohol consumption and alcohol-related crashes among people younger than 21 in the United States and to review evidence on the effects of minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) laws.

Methods

Trends in alcohol-related crashes and alcohol consumption among young people were examined, and studies on the effects of lowering and raising the drinking age were reviewed.

Results

MLDA laws underwent many changes during the 20th century in the United States. Since July 1988, the MLDA has been 21 in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Surveys tracking alcohol consumption among high school students and young adults found that drinking declined since the late 1970 s, and most of the decline occurred by the early 1990 s. These were the years when states were establishing, or reinstating, a MLDA-21. Among fatally injured drivers ages 16-20, the percentage with positive BACs declined from 61% in 1982 to 31% in 1995, a bigger decline than for older age groups; declines occurred among the ages directly affected by raising MLDAs (ages 18-20) and among young teenagers not directly affected (ages 16-17). Almost all studies designed specifically to gauge the effects of drinking age changes show MLDAs of 21 reduce drinking, problematic drinking, drinking and driving, and alcohol-related crashes among young people. Yet many underage people still drink, many drink and drive, and alcohol remains an important risk factor in serious crashes of young drivers, especially as they progress through the teenage years. Stepped-up enforcement of MLDA and drinking and driving laws can reduce underage drinking. Recent efforts to lower MLDAs to 18 and issue licenses to drink upon completion of alcohol education have gained local and national media attention. There is no evidence that alcohol education can even partially replace the effect of MLDA-21.

Conclusions

The cause and effect relationship between MLDAs of 21 and reductions in highway crashes is clear. Initiatives to lower the drinking age to 18 ignore the demonstrated public health benefits of MLDAs of 21.

Impact on Industry

Lowering the drinking age to 18 will increase highway crash deaths among young people.     

The effects of drug and alcohol consumption on driver injury severities in single-vehicle crashes

Objective: It is well known that alcohol and drugs influence driving behavior by affecting the central nervous system, awareness, vision, and perception/reaction times, but the resulting effect on driver injuries in car crashes is not fully understood. The purpose of this study was to identify factors affecting the injury severities of unimpaired, alcohol-impaired, and drug-impaired drivers.

Method: The current article applies a random parameters logit model to study the differences in injury severities among unimpaired, alcohol-impaired, and drug-impaired drivers. Using data from single-vehicle crashes in Cook County, Illinois, over a 9-year period from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2012, separate models for unimpaired, alcohol-impaired, and drug-impaired drivers were estimated. A wide range of variables potentially affecting driver injury severity was considered, including roadway and environmental conditions, driver attributes, time and location of the crash, and crash-specific factors.

Results: The estimation results show significant differences in the determinants of driver injury severities across groups of unimpaired, alcohol-impaired, and drug-impaired drivers. The findings also show that unimpaired drivers are understandably more responsive to variations in lighting, adverse weather, and road conditions, but these drivers also tend to have much more heterogeneity in their behavioral responses to these conditions, relative to impaired drivers. In addition, age and gender were found to be important determinants of injury severity, but the effects varied significantly across all drivers, particularly among alcohol-impaired drivers.

Conclusions: The model estimation results show that statistically significant differences exist in driver injury severities among the unimpaired, alcohol-impaired, and drug-impaired driver groups considered. Specifically, we find that unimpaired drivers tend to have more heterogeneity in their injury outcomes in the presence potentially adverse weather and road surface conditions. This makes sense because one would expect unimpaired drivers to apply their full knowledge/judgment range to deal with these conditions, and the variability of this range across the driver population (with different driving experiences, etc.) should be great. In contrast, we find, for the most part, that alcohol-impaired and drug-impaired drivers have far less heterogeneity in the factors that affect injury severity, suggesting an equalizing effect resulting from the decision-impairing substance.