The role of physical processes controlling the behaviour of radionuclide contaminants in the aquatic environment: a review of state-of-the-art modelling approaches

This paper is aimed at presenting and discussing the methodologies implemented in state-of-the-art models for predicting the physical processes of radionuclide migration through the aquatic environment, including transport due to water currents, diffusion, settling and re-suspension. Models are briefly described, model parameter values reviewed and values recommended. The different modelling approaches are briefly classified and the advantages and disadvantages of the various model approaches and methodologies are assessed.     

Interprovincial migration in China,1985-2005:a gravity modeling approach

This paper tries to identify the characters that might affect interprovincial migrants'decisions and examine how and why the inftuenee of these characters changed over time individually and synthetically in China during 1985-2005.We have investigated six types of factors,namely,distance,population density,income,employment structure,house price,and migration stock.In addition,we apply the identified factors with a multiple stepwise regression model to a longitudinal dataset,which consists of interprovincial migration flows over the last two decades in China.It is found that different factors have disparate impacts on migration in China,and they can be decomposed into push force in origin area and pull force in destination area.Factors shaping China's interprovincial migration have shifted from traditional factors such as distance to economic factors such as income and employment structure.This paper suggests that more attention should be paid to obtain detailed migration data with spatial information and develop applicable models for migration processes.Our analysis provides references for development planners and policymakers to develop sound population policies to achieve regional sustainable development in China.     

Interprovincial migration in China, 1985–2005: a gravity modeling approach

This paper tries to identify the characters that might affect interprovincial migrants’ decisions and examine how and why the influence of these characters changed over time individually and synthetically in China during 1985–2005. We have investigated six types of factors, namely, distance, population density, income, employment structure, house price, and migration stock. In addition, we apply the identified factors with a multiple stepwise regression model to a longitudinal dataset, which consists of interprovincial migration flows over the last two decades in China. It is found that different factors have disparate impacts on migration in China, and they can be decomposed into push force in origin area and pull force in destination area. Factors shaping China’s interprovincial migration have shifted from traditional factors such as distance to economic factors such as income and employment structure. This paper suggests that more attention should be paid to obtain detailed migration data with spatial information and develop applicable models for migration processes. Our analysis provides references for development planners and policymakers to develop sound population policies to achieve regional sustainable development in China.     

Vertical migration of radionuclides in undisturbed grassland soils

Literature data on numerical values obtained for the parameters of the two most popular models for simulating the migration of radionuclides in undisturbed soils have been compiled and evaluated statistically. Due to restrictions on the applicability of compartmental models, the convection–dispersion equation and its parameter values should be preferred. For radiocaesium, recommended values are derived for its effective convection velocity and dispersion coefficient. Data deficiencies still exist for radionuclides other than caesium and for soils of non-temperate environments.     

Assessment, validation and intercomparison of operational models for predicting tritium migration from routine discharges of nuclear power plants: the case of Loire River

During last decades, a number of projects have been launched to validate models for predicting the behaviour of radioactive substances in the environment. The project of the "Aquatic" working group of the project EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) organised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was based on the validation and assessment of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystems. The present paper describes a blind test of models aimed at assessing the dispersion of tritium releases in the Loire River (France), on a large domain ( approximately 350km) and on a period of six months, by comparing the results obtained by operational-to-experimental values of tritium concentration at Angers, a city along the Loire River. The common conclusion is that the models used by the different participants namely 1D models and models based on a schematic hydraulic (box models) are reliable tools for tritium transport modelling. Nevertheless, the importance of proper and detailed hydrological data for the appropriate prediction of pollutant migration in water is demonstrated by the example provided during this study.     

Forecasting the consequences of accidental releases of radionuclides in the atmosphere from ensemble dispersion modelling.

The RTMOD system is presented as a tool for the intercomparison of long-range dispersion models as well as a system for support of decision making. RTMOD is an internet-based procedure that collects the results of more than 20 models used around the world to predict the transport and deposition of radioactive releases in the atmosphere. It allows the real-time acquisition of model results and their intercomparison. Taking advantage of the availability of several model results, the system can also be used as a tool to support decision making in case of emergency. The new concept of ensemble dispersion modelling is introduced which is the basis for the decision-making application of RTMOD. New statistical parameters are presented that allow gathering the results of several models to produce a single dispersion forecast. The devised parameters are presented and tested on the results of RTMOD exercises.     

Using radiotracer techniques for coastal hydrodynamic model evaluation

A three-dimensional (3D) water circulation and contaminant transport model of Manila Bay has been developed with the aim of better understanding the formation and movement of harmful algal blooms. Radiotracer techniques were used to evaluate the model by recording the dispersion of a tracer at depths of 2 and 15 m near the injection point. The selected tracer was 99mTc eluted from a molybdenum/technetium medical generator. The rationale for the choice of the tracer and the location of the injection is discussed. At 2 m the transport was dominated by the prevailing winds, and at 15 m by tidally induced currents. The development of the hydrodynamic model and its experimental evaluation were iterative processes. The experimental study confirmed the need for full 3D modelling of Manila Bay; quantified the impact of the prevailing wind field on contaminant dispersion near the injection point; and allowed the calculation of transverse dispersivity to guide the selection of parameter values used in the overall model.     

The use of fixatives for response to a radiation dispersal devise attack – a review of the current (2009) state-of-the-art

Radiation dispersal devices (RDDs), or dirty bombs, are terrorist weapons designed to scatter radioactive materials in large urban areas. Although the main intent of a RDD is to produce general panic and chaos, other impacts such as health, environmental, property and economical damage may also occur. Although one certain method of reducing health risks from a RDD event is to remove the radioactive contaminants from the environment immediately, rapid cleanup after a RDD event may be impossible in many cases. However, preventing the migration of the radioactive contaminant is crucial. Although it may be necessary to allow the contaminant to remain in place, preventing its migration is still essential. Fixatives can reduce or eliminating migration potential of a contaminant introduced by a RDD. This paper reviews the significance of fixatives in response to a RDD event and some of the products which have been identified for such a purpose. Many of the products are promising for application. However, many reports lack quantitative information to allow for effective comparative evaluation. Further, key parameters, such as shelf life and product toxicity, are not typically evaluated. We recommend that standardized performance parameters be established to allow for better comparative evaluation.     

Vertical distribution, migration rates, and model comparison of actinium in a semi-arid environment

Vertical soil characterization and migration of radionuclides were investigated at four radioactively contaminated sites on Kirtland Air Force Base (KAFB), New Mexico to determine the vertical downward migration of radionuclides in a semi-arid environment. The surface soils (0-15 cm) were intentionally contaminated with Brazilian sludge (containing (232)Thorium and other radionuclides) approximately 40 years ago, in order to simulate the conditions resulting from a nuclear weapons accident. Site grading consisted of manually raking or machine disking the sludge. The majority of the radioactivity was found in the top 15 cm of soil, with retention ranging from 69 to 88%. Two models, a compartment diffusion model and leach rate model, were evaluated to determine their capabilities and limitations in predicting radionuclide behavior. The migration rates of actinium were calculated with the diffusion compartment and the leach rate models for all sites, and ranged from 0.009 to 0.1 cm/yr increasing with depth. The migration rates calculated with the leach rate models were similar to those using the diffusion compartment model and did not increase with depth (0.045-0.076, 0.0 cm/yr). The research found that the physical and chemical properties governing transport processes of water and solutes in soil provide a valid radionuclide transport model. The evaluation also showed that the physical model has fewer limitations and may be more applicable to this environment.     

河流底泥冲刷悬浮对水质影响途径的实验研究

进入天然水体的大部分污染物会在河流，湖泊底部形成富含各种污染物的沉积物层，在一定的水流流速及紊动作用下发生底泥冲刷及再悬浮。大量的污染物被重新释放出来造成河湖水体的二次污染，这种情况是外源污染得到治理后影响水质的主要因素。建立这种影响条件下的水质模型需要对沉积物的污染释放机理有充分的认识。采用富含污染物的天然河湖底泥，通过衡温静态培养等手段，在不同的水力条件。瞬彰服，连续悬浮和静止状态下，研究了污染物的释放，并对实验结果进行了分析。确定了底泥冲刷悬浮影响水质的主要途径，即在底泥间隙水污染物浓度接近平衡时，其与上层大水体的混合作用是影响水质的主要作用，其次是下部底泥的静态释放，而悬浮颗粒的污染物扩散释放作用则较小，这为底泥冲刷悬浮影响下的水质模型的建立提供了理论依据。     

No Sustainability without Technical,Fiscal and Social Innovation

Abstract

Migration process has become increasingly important in recent research on population and the environment. A majority of the existing migration and environment literature has focused on the environmental causes and determinants of migration. With the largest rural-to-urban migration flow in world history, and growing concerns about the environmental problems accompanying its fast economic development, China provides a particularly important case for migration and environment research. This paper reviews major migration theories and recent research on environmental effects on migration, with specific attention to the influences of environmental factors on rural-to-urban labor migration in China. A comprehensive multilevel conceptual framework is developed for studying the environmental causes of rural-to-urban migration in China. The effects of land resources on household labor migration decisions in rural China are explored to illustrate the application of this framework.     

Natural attenuation of contaminated soils

Natural attenuation is increasing in use as a low cost means of remediating contaminated soil and groundwater. Modelling of contaminant migration plays a key role in evaluating natural attenuation as a remediation option and in ensuring that there will be no adverse impact on humans and the environment. During natural attenuation, the contamination must be characterized thoroughly and monitored through the process. In this paper, attenuation mechanisms for both organic and inorganic contaminants, use of models and protocols, role of monitoring and field case studies will be reviewed.     

Long-term contaminant migration and impacts from uranium mill tailings

As part of the BIOMOVS II study, a Working Group was established with the primary aim of comparing computer models used to assess the long-term impacts of contaminants released from uranium mill tailings piles, involving multiple pathways, multiple contaminants and multiple environmental receptors. The application of models to two scenarios (V1 and V2) allowed participants to gain an improved understanding of important processes and to compare the representation of these processes in the models. Partly as a result of this, new models were developed and the functionality of existing models was enhanced. Model results for the scenarios were compared quantitatively and agreed well (often within a factor of three) for the more tightly specified V2 scenario. In so far as the scenarios represent generic sites, the following generic conclusions can be drawn.

• •A range of pathways and contaminants affect the total dose/intake and so no single pathway or contaminant is dominant for all scenarios to the exclusion of all other pathways or contaminants.
• •Peak impacts on individuals may not arise for many hundreds of years.
• •Simplification of the ²³⁸U decay chain, by assuming ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po are in secular equilibrium in the biosphere with the long-lived parent, ²²⁶Ra, is inappropriate.
• •Whilst models are available for assessing potential radiological and non-radiological health impacts, comparison of health impacts is limited by the absence of comprehensive data for health impacts of stable elements.

     

Requirements for estimation of doses from contaminants dispersed by a ‘dirty bomb’ explosion in an urban area

The ARGOS decision support system is currently being extended to enable estimation of the consequences of terror attacks involving chemical, biological, nuclear and radiological substances. This paper presents elements of the framework that will be applied in ARGOS to calculate the dose contributions from contaminants dispersed in the atmosphere after a ‘dirty bomb’ explosion. Conceptual methodologies are presented which describe the various dose components on the basis of knowledge of time-integrated contaminant air concentrations. Also the aerosolisation and atmospheric dispersion in a city of different types of conceivable contaminants from a ‘dirty bomb’ are discussed.     

Assessing field-scale migration of radionuclides at the Nevada Test Site: “mobile” species

Many long-lived radionuclides are present in groundwater at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) as a result of 828 underground nuclear weapons tests conducted between 1951 and 1992. In conjunction with a comprehensive geochemical review of radionuclides (³H, ¹⁴C, ³⁶Cl, ⁹⁹Tc and ¹²⁹I) that are presumably mobile in the subsurface, we synthesized a body of radionuclide activity data measured from groundwater samples collected at 18 monitoring wells, to qualitatively assess their migration at the NTS over distances of hundreds of meters and over timescales of decades. Tritium and ³⁶Cl showed little evidence of retardation, while the transport of ¹⁴C may have been retarded by its isotopic exchange with carbonate minerals in the aquifer. Observed local reducing conditions (either natural or test-induced) will impact the mobility of certain redox-sensitive radionuclides (especially ⁹⁹Tc) that were otherwise soluble and readily transported under oxidizing conditions. Conversely, strongly oxidizing conditions may impact the mobility of ¹²⁹I which is mobile under reducing conditions. The effect of iodine speciation on its transport deserves further attention. Indication of delayed transport of some “mobile” radionuclides (especially ⁹⁹Tc) in the groundwater at the NTS suggested the importance of redox conditions of the natural system in controlling the fate and transport of radionuclides, which has implications in the enhanced performance of the potential Yucca Mountain repository, located adjacent to the NTS, to store high-level nuclear wastes as well as management of radionuclide contamination in legacy nuclear operations facilities.     

Regional-scale application of the decision support system MOIRA-PLUS: an example of assessment of the radiological impact of the Chernobyl accident on the fresh water ecosystem in Italy

The present work illustrates the customisation and application of the decision support system MOIRA-PLUS (a MOdel-based computerised system for management support to Identify optimal remedial strategies for Restoring radionuclide contaminated Aquatic ecosystems and drainage areas) to the fresh water environment in Italy. MOIRA-PLUS is aimed at evaluating the behaviour of radiocaesium and radiostrontium in fresh water ecosystems and at assessing the appropriateness of suitable strategies for the management of contaminated water bodies by the application of multi-attribute analysis techniques. MOIRA-PLUS can be applied to complex networks of lakes, rivers and tributaries and can be straightforwardly customised utilising data and information from readily accessible sources such as official websites provided by scientific or government organisations. The present work shows an application of the decision system to 10 lakes and 18 rivers in Italy contaminated with ¹³⁷Cs of Chernobyl origin. Site-specific values of some aggregated transfer parameters were estimated for the most important Italian lakes. Although high values of fish and water consumptions were hypothesised, very low doses to public from the fresh water pathway following the accident were calculated.     

The association between rural–urban migration flows and urban air quality in China

In light of the rapid urbanization of the world’s population over the past decades, there is a growing concern about the environmental impacts of urban population growth. Rural–urban migration is a particularly important component of the urbanization process in developing countries and is often considered to be detrimental to urban environmental conditions. However, few studies have explicitly examined the presumed negative impacts of in-migration on the natural environment of cities. The continuously increasing volume of rural–urban labor migration in China since the early 1980s has formed the largest population flow in world history. This study links the existing literature on population–environment and urbanization–environment interactions by empirically assessing the relationship between rural–urban migration and urban air conditions in China. A two-period (2004 and 2010) longitudinal dataset for the 113 key environmental protection cities of China was constructed based on multiple data sources. We applied the STIRPAT equation using conventional and spatial panel regression models to examine whether rural–urban migration flows were associated with air pollution in cities. Results show a strong negative association of in-migration with urban air quality even after controlling for the effects of other population, affluence, and technology factors. Findings from this research can contribute to a better understanding of the environmental consequences of rural–urban migration in China, with broader implications for sustainable development research and policies.     

基于WebGIS三峡干流水质模拟平台研究

三峡蓄水成库后仍属于典型的河道型水库,其总体水流、水质运动特性符合一维水流水质运动规律。针对三峡库区总体水流、水质运动特性,采用一维水流水质模型对三峡库区水流和水质进行了模拟。以该模型为核心,利用Web Services技术开发并在互联网上发布了模型服务,在此基础上采用成熟的WebGIS和富客户端Flex等技术构建了适用于三峡库区的干流水质模拟平台;能够实现包括各计算断面流速、流量、水位以及污染物浓度时空过程在内的三峡库区干流流速场和浓度场的数值模拟。以库区干流清溪场至十里铺断面内的江段作为模拟实例,利用该平台模拟计算江段内水流和水质状况,并以水文水质同步观测数据对模拟结果进行验证,结果表明其具有较好的模拟效果;为三峡库区污染物总体输移扩散特性研究提供了有利工具,同时也为国家和地方政府进行库区水环境决策提供了技术支持     

遗产旅游地生态移民影响的实证研究——以武陵源风景名胜区为例

生态移民是近年来诸多景区为保护生态环境而采取的重要举措之一。以世界遗产地武陵源风景名胜区为例,通过对安置点居民的问卷调查与实地访谈获取第一手资料,从居民感知的角度分析生态移民给安置区居民所带来的经济、社会文化、资源环境、心理及安置政策等方面的影响及其相关因素。构建生态移民影响的感知差异分析模型,探讨不同基本背景的居民对生态移民影响的感知差异性。结果表明,安置点居民对生态移民的社会文化、资源环境以及心理层面的正面影响比较认可;对于经济影响的感知分歧较大;而对于移民政策的感知十分消极;不同性别、年龄、文化程度、收入水平以及不同旅游业参与程度的居民对生态移民影响的认知态度存在显著差异。在此基础上,指出武陵源生态移民过程中所存在的主要问题及相关政策导向