Investing in climate change adaptation and mitigation: A methodological review of real-options studies

Uncertain future payoffs and irreversible costs characterize investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Under these conditions, it is relevant to analyze investment decisions in a real options framework, as this approach takes into account the economic value associated with investment time flexibility. In this paper, we provide an overview of the literature adopting a real option approach to analyze investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation, and examine how the uncertain impacts of climate change on the condition of the human environment, risk preferences, and strategic interactions among decisions-makers have been modeled. We found that the complex nature of uncertainties associated with climate change is typically only partially taken into account and that the analysis is usually limited to decisions taken by individual risk neutral profit maximizers. Our findings call for further research to fill the identified gaps.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01342-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

International cooperation to support climate change mitigation and sustainable development

This paper analyses the flexible instruments Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) with regard to achieving CO₂ emission reduction targets in a sustainable way. In a first step, an optimising energy and material flow model is used to elaborate emission reduction strategies for Germany. The same methodology is then applied to Indonesia in order to determine the emission baseline for this country, which is an indispensable requirement for the evaluation of project-based flexible instruments. Then, models for Germany, Russia and Indonesia are linked using a decomposition algorithm with the aim to elaborate emission reduction strategies for Germany, including JI and CDM projects. The results show substantial potential to limit emission reduction costs by multilateral cooperation. The most favourable types of cooperation project for the considered countries are CO₂ sequestration and power plant projects. Finally, an approach to how to include the criterion of sustainable development is described.     

Questioning complacency: climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway

Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation.     

The law, agency and global climate change

Consideration of policy for addressing global climate change must start with a recognition of the conflicting interests of the industrialised and the developing nations. Effective resource management regimes require a structure of incentives that will induce nations with disparate interests to cooperate and to resist temptations to defect from international agreements. Agency theory offers insights as to how such resource management regimes might be sustained. Industrialised nations must be prepared to offer inducements to agrarian nations to encourage the maintenance of tropical biomass. Moreover, technical assistance to encourage the development of technologies that are efficient in the use of carbon fuels is also essential.     

Construction,renovation, and demolition waste in landfill: a review of waste characteristics,environmental impacts,and mitigation measures

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - With the increase in global population, industrialization, and urbanization, waste from construction, renovation, and demolition (CRD) activities has...     

A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: During the last decades ecological conditions in West Africa have dramatically changed. Very evident is the climate change, which has resulted in a southward shift of the climate zones, e.g. a spread of the desert (Sahara) into the Sahelian zone. After the drought period of the early 1970s and 1980s, livestock density increased resulting in an intensification of grazing pressure. This anthropogenous phenomenon leads to similar landscape changes as those caused by the climate. Only very few investigations exist on vegetation dynamics, climate changes and land use changes for the Sudanian zone. The paper presents data on changes of precipitation, of land use, of the geographical range of species, and of the composition of the flora, which have to be regarded as proofs of the sahelisation of large areas of the Sudanian zone. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Area of investigation: Burkina Faso. Precipitation data analysis: precipitation data from 67 stations; time series analysis and geo-statistical spatial interpolation. Analysis of land use change: Landsat satellite MSS and ETM+ data, acquired for two different dates between 1972 and 2001 analyzed by the software ERDAS/IMAGINE version 8.6 and ArcView 3.2 with the Spatial Analyst extension. Intensive ground truthing (160 training areas). Inventory of the flora: based on the data of the Herbarium Senckenbergianum (FR) in Frankfurt, Germany, and of the herbarium of the university of Ouagadougou (OUA), Burkina Faso, as well as on various investigations on the vegetation of Burkina Faso carried out in the years 1990 to 2005 by the team of the senior author. Life form analysis of the flora: based on the inventory of permanent plots. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Precipitation: Remarkable latitudinal shift of isohyets towards the South translates to a general reduction of average rainfall in great parts of the country. The last decade (1990-1999) shows some improvement, however, the more humid conditions of the 1950's and 1960's are not yet established again. Landcover change: In the study region the extent of arable fields and young fallows increased during the last 30 years from 580 km(2) in 1972 to 2870 km(2) in 2001. This means an average land cover conversion rate of 0.9% per year for the 6 departments considered. Change of the distribution of Sahelian and Sudanian species: Several species, mentioned in older literature as strictly Sahelian, today also occur in the Sudanian zone. Parallel to the spread of former strictly Sahelian species into the Sudanian zone, some former Sahelo-Sudanian species have withdrawn from the Sahel. Changes of the life form spectra of the flora: Considering their life form spectra, the flora of heavily grazed and of protected areas in the Sudanian zone show great differences. On areas intensively grazed the percentage of therophytes is evidently higher than on protected areas. Just the opposite is true for the phanerophytes. Their percentage is higher on the protected area than on the grazed zones. At the first glance, it is obvious to link the changes in flora and vegetation with the climate changes that have occurred during the last five decades (decrease of annual precipitation). However, not only climatic conditions have changed, but also population has increased, the percentage of land intensively used for agriculture and pasturing has increased and the time for soil regeneration today is much shorter than it was some decades ago. Thus, the landscape of the Sudanian zone has become a more Sahelian character. A comparison of the flora of an intensively used area of the Sudanian zone with that of a protected area shows a remarkable change in the life form spectra. The spectrum of the intensively used area is almost identical with that of the typical Sahelian flora. This comparison shows that the anthropogenic influence plays a greater role in the sahelisation of the Sudanian zone than the climate change. CONCLUSION: Climate change and anthropogenic influence both, lead to a sahelisation of landscape and flora. Thus in many parts of the Sudanian zone of West Africa sahelisation phenomena will remain and even increase independently from the reestablishment of the more humid climate conditions of the 1950ies. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: In order to maintain some parts of the characteristic Sudanian landscape with its characteristic flora and vegetation, the number and size of protected areas should be augmented. For all protected areas it has to be ensured, that protection is reality, i.e. respected an understood by local people, not only fiction. As long as the enlargement of intensively used areas continues the sahelisation of flora, vegetation and landscape will continue too.     

Towards a sustainable food production: modelling the impacts of climate change on maize and soybean production in Ghana

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The Ghanaian economy relies heavily on maize and soybean production. The entire maize and soybean production system is low-tech, making it extremely...     

Impacts of and adaptation to climate change on the oil palm in Malaysia: a systematic review

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The interaction and the interplay of climate change with oil palm production in the Southeast Asia region are of serious concern. This particularly...     

Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr^?1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000–2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ～55 mW m^?2 (23–87 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005–78 mW m^?2 (38–139 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2–14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7–3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0–4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4–4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO₂ emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.     

Understanding and managing the interactions of impacts from nature-based recreation and climate change

Disturbance to ecosystems in parks and protected areas from nature-based tourism and recreation is increasing in scale and severity, as are the impacts of climate change—but there is limited research examining the degree to which these anthropogenic disturbances interact. In this perspective paper, we draw on the available literature to expose complex recreation and climate interactions that may alter ecosystems of high conservation value such that important species and processes no longer persist. Our emphasis is on ecosystems in high demand for tourism and recreation that also are increasingly experiencing stress from climate change. We discuss the importance of developing predictive models of direct and indirect effects, including threshold and legacy effects at different levels of biological organization. We present a conceptual model of these interactions to initiate a dialog among researchers and managers so that new research approaches and managerial frameworks are advanced to address this emerging issue.     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: The global inequalities and climate change

Environmental Science and Pollution Research -     

A bibliometric review on the inter-connection between climate change and rice farming

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Rice is an important cereal and a staple food in many countries in the world. Climate change is a significant challenge that affects paddy production...     

Sensitivity of tropospheric oxidants to global chemical and climate change

A photochemical model has been used to quantify the sensitivity of the tropospheric oxidants O₃ and OH to changes in CH₄, CO and NO emissions and to perturbations in climate and stratospheric chemistry. Coefficients of the form ∂1n[O₃]/∂1n[X] and ∂1n[OH]/∂1n[X], where [X] = flux of CH₄, CO, NO; stratospheric O₃ and H₂O have been calculated for a number of “chemically coherent” regions (e.g. nonpolluted continental, nonpolluted marine, urban) at low and middle latitudes. Sensitivities in O₃ and OH vary with regional emissions patterns and are nonlinear within a given region as [X] changes. In most cases increasing CH₄ and CO emissions will suppress OH (negative coefficients) and increase O₃ (positive coefficients) except in areas where NO and O₃ influenced by pollution are sufficient to increase OH. Stratospheric O₃ depletion will tend to decrease O₃ (except in high NO_x areas) and increase OH through enhanced u.v. photolysis. Increased levels of water vapor (one possible outcome of a global warming) will also decrease O₃ and increase OH. We conclude that in most regions, NO, CO and CH₄ emission increases will suppress OH and increase O₃, but these trends may be opposed by stratospheric O₃ depletion and climate change. A regional survey of OH and O₃ levels suggests that the tropics have a pivotal role in determining the earth's future oxidizing capacity.     

Managing climate change impacts to enhance the resilience and sustainability of Fennoscandian forests

Projected warming in Sweden and other Fennoscandian countries will probably increase growth rates of forest trees near their northern limits, increase the probability of new pest outbreaks, and foster northerly migration of both native and exotic species. The greatest challenges for sustainable forestry are to restore and enhance the ecological and socioeconomic diversity of intensively managed forested landscapes. With appropriate management, climate warming may facilitate the regeneration of this diversity. Experimental transplant gardens along latitudinal or altitudinal gradients and high-resolution maps of expected future climate could provide a scientific basis for predicting the climate response of potential migrant species. Management of corridors and assisted migration could speed the movement of appropriate species.     

Linking gender,climate change and security in the Pacific Islands Region: A systematic review

This systematic review aims to address gaps in understanding how concepts of gender, climate change and security are given meaning and linked in empirical scholarship within the Pacific Islands Region. The review assesses the 53 articles returned through Web of Science, SCOPUS and ProQuest databases that are derived from empirical research and refer to gender, climate change and security. The findings indicate that this is an emerging topic in a region that is one of the most vulnerable to climate change across the globe. Most frequently gender analysis is given superficial treatment; there is limited literature that connects gendered vulnerabilities to historical legacies and structural inequalities; and women’s critical roles that create security are often overlooked and devalued. The review indicates that greater work is needed to question perceived threats to security and to reveal how climate change, gendered institutions, systems and spaces, historical legacies and politics interact to construct security in the Pacific Islands Region.     

Spray drift of pesticides and stream macroinvertebrates: experimental evidence of impacts and effectiveness of mitigation measures

Impoverished stream communities in agricultural landscapes have been associated with pesticide contamination, but conclusive evidence of causality is rare. We address this deficiency by adopting an experimental approach to investigate the effects of the insecticides cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos on benthic macroinvertebrates. Three treatments were established and a combination of biomarker, bioassay and biomonitoring approaches was employed to investigate, individual, population and community-level effects. Animals deployed during pesticide application had altered enzyme activity, depressed feeding rate and reduced survival, but these effects were only observed where pesticide was sprayed to the stream edge. There were no clear pesticide-related effects on macroinvertebrate community structure or on the population densities of individual species. Hence, short-term pesticide exposure did cause individual-level effects in stream macroinvertebrates, but these were not translated to effects at the population or community-level and were effectively mitigated by the adoption of a no-spray buffer zone.     

Prescribed burns and wildfires in Colorado: impacts of mitigation measures on indoor air particulate matter

Wildfires and prescribed burns are receiving increasing attention as sources of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The goal of this research project was to understand the impact of mitigation strategies for residences impacted by scheduled prescribed burns and wildfires. Pairs of residences were solicited to have PM2.5 concentrations monitored inside and outside of their houses during four fires. The effect of using air cleaners on indoor PM2.5 was investigated, as well as the effect of keeping windows closed. Appropriately sized air cleaners were provided to one of each pair of residences; occupants of all of the residences were asked to keep windows shut and minimize opening of exterior doors. Additionally, residents were asked to record all of the activities that may be a source of particulate matter, such as cooking and cleaning. Measurements were made during one prescribed burn and three wildfires during the 2002 fire season. Outdoor 24-hr average PM2.5 concentrations ranging from 6 to 38 microg/m3 were measured during the fires, compared with levels of 2-5 microg/m3 during background measurements when no fires were burning. During the fires, PM2.5 was < 3 microg/m3 inside all of the houses with air cleaners installed. This corresponds with a decrease of 63-88% in homes with the air cleaners operating when compared with homes without air cleaners. In the homes without the air cleaners, measured indoor concentrations were 58-100% of the concentrations measured outdoors.