Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons air levels in Florence,Italy, and their correlation with other air pollutants

Benzo(a)pyrene [B(a)P] air levels were measured in Florence (Italy) in the period 1992-2001. For the period 1999-2000 seven polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) (benzo(a)anthracene, crysene, benzo(a)pyrene (B(a)P), benzo(b)fluoranthene (B(b)F), benzo(k)fluoranthene, dibenzo(a,h)anthracene (DBA) and benzo(g,h,i)perylene (BGP)), were measured in the air in four different sites (one with heavy traffic (A), one in a park (B), one in a residential area (C) and one in a hill area (D)). B(a)P levels were elevated in 1992-1998 (maximum average value of winter months: 5.8 ng/ m3) but a decreasing trend was observed in the following years, probably due to improvement in vehicle emissions. The sum of PAH in the air in the period 1999-2000 was about one order of magnitude lower in the hill site (D) relative to the urban sites, and residential areas (B and C) had values 2.5-3 times lower compared to site A with a heavy traffic. PAH concentrations decreased in the warmer seasons of 2000 in all sites. A negative correlation was found between PAH levels and ozone. A positive correlation with carbon monoxide (CO) (r = 0.862, P < 0.001) and low B(a)P/BGP ratios, ranging from 0.44 to 0.51, indicated that vehicular traffic was the major PAH source in all monitored sites. Using B(a)P(TEF) values (toxic equivalency factors) for evaluating the biological activity of PAH, we found that the highest PAH contributors in terms of potential air carcinogenic activity were B(a)P and DBA. Therefore, in addition to B(a)P, DBA concentration should be considered in the evaluation of air quality in terms of PAH contamination.     

Boiler briquette coal versus raw coal: Part II--Energy, greenhouse gas, and air quality implications

The objective of this paper is to conduct an integrated analysis of the energy, greenhouse gas, and air quality impacts of a new type of boiler briquette coal (BB-coal) in contrast to those of the raw coal from which the BB-coal was formulated (R-coal). The analysis is based on the source emissions data and other relevant data collected in the present study and employs approaches including the construction of carbon, energy, and sulfur balances. The results show that replacing R-coal with BB-coal as the fuel for boilers such as the one tested would have multiple benefits, including a 37% increase in boiler thermal efficiency, a 25% reduction in fuel demand, a 26% reduction in CO2 emission, a 17% reduction in CO emission, a 63% reduction in SO2 emission, a 97% reduction in fly ash and fly ash carbon emission, a 22% reduction in PM2.5 mass emission, and a 30% reduction in total emission of five toxic hazardous air pollutant (HAP) metals contained in PM10. These benefits can be achieved with no changes in boiler hardware and with a relatively small amount of tradeoffs: a 30% increase in PM10 mass emission and a 9-16% increase in fuel cost.     

Boiler Briquette Coal versus Raw Coal: Part II—Energy,Greenhouse Gas,and Air Quality Implications

ABSTRACT

The objective of this paper is to conduct an integrated analysis of the energy, greenhouse gas, and air quality impacts of a new type of boiler briquette coal (BB-coal) in contrast to those of the raw coal from which the BB-coal was formulated (R-coal). The analysis is based on the source emissions data and other relevant data collected in the present study and employs approaches including the construction of carbon, energy, and sulfur balances. The results show that replacing R-coal with BB-coal as the fuel for boilers such as the one tested would have multiple benefits, including a 37% increase in boiler thermal efficiency, a 25% reduction in fuel demand, a 26% reduction in CO₂ emission, a 17% reduction in CO emission, a 63% reduction in SO₂ emission, a 97% reduction in fly ash and fly ash carbon emission, a 22% reduction in PM_2.5 mass emission, and a 30% reduction in total emission of five toxic hazardous air pollutant (HAP) metals contained in PM₁₀. These benefits can be achieved with no changes in boiler hardware and with a relatively small amount of tradeoffs: a 30% increase in PM₁₀ mass emission and a 9–16% increase in fuel cost.     

A carbon budget of a small humic lake: an example of the importance of lakes for organic matter cycling in boreal catchments

Lakes play an important role in the cycling of organic matter in the boreal landscape, due to the frequently high extent of bacterial respiration and the efficient burial of organic carbon in sediments. Based on a mass balance approach, we calculated a carbon budget for a small humic Swedish lake in the vicinity of a potential final repository for radioactive waste in Sweden, in order to assess its potential impact on the environmental fate of radionuclides associated with organic matter. We found that the lake is a net heterotrophic ecosystem, subsidized by organic carbon inputs from the catchment and from emergent macrophyte production. The largest sink of organic carbon is respiration by aquatic bacteria and subsequent emission of carbon.dioxide to the atmosphere. Although the annual burial of organic carbon in the sediment is a comparatively small sink, it results in the build-up of the largest carbon pool in the lake. Hence, lakes may simultaneously disperse and accumulate organic-associated radionuclides leaking from a final repository.     

Calcium carbonate phosphate binding ion exchange filtration and accelerated denitrification improve public health standards and combat eutrophication in aquatic ecosystems.

Cultural eutrophication, the process by which a lake becomes rich in dissolved nutrients as a result of point and nonpoint pollutant sources, is a major cause of the loss of natural lake ecosystems throughout the world. The process occurs naturally in all lakes, but phosphate-rich nutrient runoff from sources such as storm drains and agricultural runoff is a major cause of excess phosphate-induced eutrophication. Especially in Madrona Marsh, one of the last remaining vernal marshes in the greater Los Angeles area, California, cultural eutrophication has become a major problem. In this study, calcium carbonate was found to be an excellent phosphate binder, reducing up to 70% of the phosphates in a given sample of water, and it posed relatively negligent ecological repercussions. This study involved the testing of this principle in both the laboratory and the real ecosystem. A calcium carbonate lacing procedure was first carried out to determine its efficacy in Madrona Marsh. Through this, ammonia was found to interfere with the solubility of calcium carbonate and therefore to be a hindrance to the reduction of phosphate. Therefore, various approaches for reduction of ammonia were tested, including aeration, use of fiber growth media, and plants, mainly Caulerpa verticellata, chosen for it hardiness, primarily in an attempt to increase population of Nitrobacter and Nitrosomonas. All were successful in moderately reducing ammonia levels. In addition, soil sampling, sediment analysis, microscopic plant analysis, microorganism and macroinvertebrate identification, and rate law formulations were conducted. The effect of phosphate and ammonia reduction on the populations of enterobacteria was also an important focus of this experiment. Varying concentrations of phosphate, ammonia, and calcium carbonate in conjunction with phosphate were tested in Madrona Marsh to determine their effects on the populations of enteropathogens on nonspecific blood agar, MacConkey agar, and Hektoen agar. Initial analyses suggest a strong correlation between phosphate concentrations and bacterial populations; a 66% decrease in phosphate resulted in a 35% reduction in bacterial populations and a 45% reduction in enteropathogenic populations. Likewise, a strong correlation was shown between calcium carbonate concentrations and bacterial reduction greater than that which can be attributed to the phosphate reduction alone. This was followed by the construction of various phosphate binding calcium carbonate filters, which used the ion exchange principle, including a spring loading filter, PVC pipe filter, and a galvanized filter. All were tested with the aid of Stoke's law formulation. The experiment was extremely successful in designing a working phosphate-binding and ammonia-reducing filter, and a large-scale agitator-clarifier filter system is currently being planned for construction in Madrona Marsh; this filter will reduce phosphate and ammonia levels substantially in the following years, bringing ecological, economical, and health-related improvements to the overall ecosystem and habitat.     

Mutagenic nitrated benzo[a]pyrene derivatives in the reaction product of benzo[a]pyrene in NO2-air in the presence of O3 or under photoirradiation

In order to clarify the contribution of nitrated products to the direct-mutagenic activity of products of the reactions of benzo[a]pyrene in NO2-air under various conditions, heterogeneous reactions of BaP deposited on filter in the air containing 10 ppm of NO2 have been conducted in dark or under photoirradiation. The reaction products have been analyzed by gas chromatography and mutagenicity of the products fractionated by preparative HPLC was assayed for Salmonella typhimurium strains TA98 and YG1024 in the absence of S9 mix. 3,6-dinitrobenzo[a]pyrene and 1,3-dinitrobenzo[a]pyrene, which are strong direct-acting mutagens, largely contributed to the total direct-acting mutagenicity of the dark reaction products in NO2-air. On the other hand, both the dark reaction in the presence of O3 and the photoreaction in NO2-air resulted in the formation of much smaller amounts of nitrobenzo[a]pyrenes than that observed in the dark reaction in the absence of O3. These results show that the contribution of other direct-acting mutagens to the total direct-acting mutagenicity of the products in these reactions should be considered. Benzo[a]pyrene lactones were identified in a highly mutagenic fraction of the products of the dark reaction in the presence of O3 and photoreaction and a nitrobenzo[a]pyrene lactone was also identified in a highly mutagenic fraction of the dark reaction products in the presence of O3. Nitrated oxygenated benzo[a]pyrene derivatives such as nitrobenzo[a]pyrene lactone were considered to largely contribute to direct-acting mutagenicity of the products of the dark reaction in the presence of O3 and photoreaction.     

A study on the characteristics of silt loading on paved roads in the Seoul metropolitan area using a mobile monitoring system

This study is considered the first attempt to apply a mobile monitoring system to estimating silt loading on paved roads in a mega-city such as the Seoul metropolitan area. Using a mobile monitoring system developed in 2005, we estimated silt loadings on representative paved roads in the Seoul metropolitan area, including the city of Incheon, over a period of 3 yr. The temporal and spatial characteristics of silt loading were investigated for the carefully selected roads that may reflect the characteristics of the cities of Seoul and Incheon. In this study, changes in the average silt loading values were investigated in terms of land use, the temporal resolution of data acquisition (i.e., seasonal, daily, three-hour scale), the road width or number of lanes, and rainfall, which may affect the characteristics of the average silt loading significantly. It was found that the advantages of using the mobile monitoring system are its ability to obtain a large quantity of silt loading data in a short period of time and over a wide area and its ability to create a silt loading map showing the relative magnitude of silt loading in relation to a specific location, which makes it possible to easily locate hot spots.

Implications: This study may be considered the first practical application of a mobile monitoring system to obtain the silt loading data on paved roads in a mega-city such as Seoul. It was found that the advantages of using the mobile monitoring system are its ability to obtain a large quantity of silt loading data in a short period of time and over a wide area and its ability to create a silt loading map showing the relative magnitude of silt loading in relation to a specific location, which makes it possible to easily locate hot spots to be cleaned cost-effectively by city officials.     

Prediction of particulate loading in exhaust from fabric filter baghouses with one or more failed bags

Loss of filtration efficiency in a fabric filter baghouse is typically caused by bag failure, in one form or another. The degree of such failure can be as minor as a pinhole leak or as major as a fully involved baghouse fire. In some cases, local air pollution regulations or federal hazardous waste laws may require estimation of the total quantity of particulate matter released to the environment as a result of such failures. In this paper, a technique is presented for computing the dust loading in the baghouse exhaust when one or more bags have failed. The algorithm developed is shown to be an improvement over a previously published result, which requires empirical knowledge of the variation in baghouse pressure differential with bag failures. An example calculation is presented for a baghouse equipped with 200 bags. The prediction shows that a small percentage of failed bags can cause a relatively large proportion of the gas flow to bypass the active bags, which, in turn, leads to high outlet dust loading and low overall collection efficiency from the baghouse.     

Total and Methylmercury in Soft Tissues of White-Tailed Eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) and Osprey (Pandion haliaetus) Collected in Poland

Mercury (Hg) contamination in piscivorous birds, especially methylmercury (MeHg), has been drawing much attention worldwide in regard to its bioaccumulation and biomagnification in food chains. In this study on Hg in the soft tissues of white-tailed eagles (n = 22) and ospreys (n = 2) from Poland, total Hg (THg) range was 0.15–47.6 while MeHg range was 0.11–8.05 mg kg⁻¹ dry weight. In both species, median THg and MeHg concentrations were lower in the muscle and brain than in the liver and kidney. Median nephric residues were just under 3 and 5 mgTHg kg⁻¹ or 0.9 and 3.7 mgMeHg kg⁻¹ for white-tailed eagle and osprey, respectively. In Norwegian data from the 1970s and in our results, MeHg in the muscle of white-tailed eagle was ~60 % THg (%MeHg = MeHg/THg × 100), lower than in other piscivorous birds. A clear similarity in THg tissue levels was found between Polish and German populations of white-tailed eagles.     

Hazardous waste sites and property values: a French case study in the light of US analyses

This paper aims to evaluate the impact of a polluted site on property values by using the hedonic price method. The case study concerns a lead foundry in a previously industrialised area in northern France. The results are fairly convincing. The impact is confirmed, but appears to be especially apparent at relatively close distances. More than one mile away, the impact is much weaker. Moreover, a chronological analysis, which includes interaction terms, allows one to demonstrate a significant variability in results, depending upon the years being examined. The results obtained are compared with those derived from US studies. It appears that more than one mile away, the calculated impact values are fairly similar, about 1–2% of the average value of a house. In contrast, bearing in mind the higher average property values in the USA, gradient prices in absolute values are, in general, higher in that country.     

A tracer study of headspace ventilation in a collector sewer

A field-scale tracer test was conducted to evaluate in-situ ventilation rates in a major collector sewer. The sewer under study was approximately 11 km long and ranged from 0.61 to 2.1 m in diameter. For the purposes of the tracer testing, the collector was divided into four reaches, each of which was tested individually. The tracer test involved injecting a measured volume of CO gas into a manhole over a short time period. CO concentrations were then measured in the collector headspace at selected manholes along the length of the reach. The technique employed successfully measured average headspace velocities over extended lengths of the collector. In a section that had a relatively stagnant headspace, approximately 1.1 km of sewer could be evaluated, with substantial tracer loss attributed to losses to manholes. In a section of the sewer with elevated headspace velocities, a section approximately 7.0 km long was successfully tested with one injection of tracer gas. The velocities observed in the collector varied substantially with time and location in the collector. The lowest velocities measured were in the upstream sections, with a minimum observed value of 3.8 m/min. The highest velocities were observed in the downstream sections, with a maximum value of 31.5 m/min. The presence of a substantial drop structure appeared to reduce the headspace velocity in the upstream reach. In general, there was an increasing trend in gas-phase flows with distance along the length of the collector. Flows at the discharge end of the collector were almost 2 orders of magnitude greater than those at the beginning.     

Estimating the probability of the public perceiving a decrease in atmospheric haze

Regional haze regulations require progress toward reducing atmospheric haze as measured by particle scattering coefficient of visible light. From a practical perspective, this raises the following question: Given a decrease in extinction, what is the probability that people will notice an improvement in visibility? This paper proposes a quantitative definition of the probability of a perceptible increase in visibility given a decrease in light extinction and a general method to estimate this probability from perception measurements made in the field under realistic conditions. Using data from a recent study of visibility perception by 8 observers, it is estimated that a 2-4 deciview change gives a 67% maximum probability of detecting the improvement. Stated another way, the odds of seeing a difference are at most 2:1 for a change of 2-4 deciviews. A 90% probability requires a change of at least 3.5-7.0 deciviews. The limitations and possible bias in the results of this study are discussed. These results may have a major effect on the cost-benefit analysis of regulatory actions to improve visibility.     

Upscaling heterogeneity in aquifer reactivity via exposure-time concept: forward model

Reactive properties of aquifer solid phase materials play an important role in solute fate and transport in the natural subsurface on time scales ranging from years in contaminant remediation to millennia in dynamics of aqueous geochemistry. Quantitative tools for dealing with the impact of natural heterogeneity in solid phase reactivity on solute fate and transport are limited. Here we describe the use of a structural variable to keep track of solute flux exposure to reactive surfaces. With this approach, we develop a non-reactive tracer model that is useful for determining the signature of multi-scale reactive solid heterogeneity in terms of solute flux distributions at the field scale, given realizations of three-dimensional reactive site density fields. First, a governing Eulerian equation for the non-reactive tracer model is determined by an upscaling technique in which it is found that the exposure time of solution to reactive surface areas evolves via both a macroscopic velocity and a macroscopic dispersion in the artificial dimension of exposure time. Second, we focus on the Lagrangian approach in the context of a streamtube ensemble and demonstrate the use of the distribution of solute flux over the exposure time dimension in modeling two-dimensional transport of a solute undergoing simplified linear reversible reactions, in hypothetical conditions following prior laboratory experiments. The distribution of solute flux over exposure time in a given case is a signature of the impact of heterogeneous aquifer reactivity coupled with a particular physical heterogeneity, boundary conditions, and hydraulic gradient. Rigorous application of this approach in a simulation sense is limited here to linear kinetically controlled reactions.     

Evaluation of a Puff Dispersion Model in Complex Terrain

California's Pacific Gas and Electric Company has many power plant operations situated in complex terrain, prominent examples being the Geysers geothermal plant in Lake and Sonoma Counties, and the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant in San Luis Obispo County. Procedures ranging from plant licensing to emergency response require a dispersion modeling capability in a complex terrain environment. This paper describes the performance evaluation of such a capability, the Pacific Gas and Electric Company Modeling System (PGEMS), a fast response Gaussian puff model with a three-dimensional wind field generator.

Performance of the model was evaluated for ground level and short stack elevated release on the basis of a special intensive tracer experiment in the complex coastal terrain surrounding the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant in San Luis Obispo County, California. The model performed well under a variety of meteorological and release conditions within the test region of 20-kilometer radius surrounding the nuclear plant, and turned in a superior performance in the wake of the nuclear plant, using a new wake correction algorithm for ground level and roof-vent releases at that location.     

Investigations on mobility of carbon colloid supported nanoscale zero-valent iron (nZVI) in a column experiment and a laboratory 2D-aquifer test system

Nanoscale zero-valent iron (nZVI) has recently gained great interest in the scientific community as in situ reagent for installation of permeable reactive barriers in aquifer systems, since nZVI is highly reactive with chlorinated compounds and may render them to harmless substances. However, nZVI has a high tendency to agglomerate and sediment; therefore it shows very limited transport ranges. One new approach to overcome the limited transport of nZVI in porous media is using a suited carrier colloid. In this study we tested mobility of a carbon colloid supported nZVI particle “Carbo-Iron Colloids” (CIC) with a mean size of 0.63 μm in a column experiment of 40 cm length and an experiment in a two-dimensional (2D) aquifer test system with dimensions of 110?×?40?×?5 cm. Results show a breakthrough maximum of 82 % of the input concentration in the column experiment and 58 % in the 2D-aquifer test system. Detected residuals in porous media suggest a strong particle deposition in the first centimeters and few depositions in the porous media in the further travel path. Overall, this suggests a high mobility in porous media which might be a significant enhancement compared to bare or polyanionic stabilized nZVI.     

Applications and implications of direct groundwater velocity measurement at the centimetre scale

Three projects involving point velocity probes (PVPs) illustrate the advantages of direct groundwater velocity measurements. In the first, a glacial till and outwash aquifer was characterized using conventional methods and multilevel PVPs for designing a bioremediation program. The PVPs revealed a highly conductive zone that dominated the transport of injected substances. These findings were later confirmed with a natural gradient tracer test. In the second, PVPs were used to map a groundwater velocity field around a dipole recirculation well. The PVPs showed higher than expected velocities near the well, assuming homogeneity in the aquifer, leading to improved representations of the aquifer heterogeneity in a 3D flow model, and an improved match between the modelled and experimental tracer breakthrough curves. In the third study, PVPs detected subtle changes in aquifer permeability downgradient of a biostimulation experiment. The changes were apparently reversible once the oxygen source was depleted, but in locations where the oxygen source lingered, velocities remained low. PVPs can be a useful addition to the hydrogeologist's toolbox, because they can be constructed inexpensively, they provide data in support of models, and they can provide information on flow in unprecedented detail.     

Multiple radon entry modeling in a house with a cellar.

Combining a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model and a multi-zonal model, a study was carried out on radon entry through the complex substructure of a house with a cellar. The uniqueness of the radon entry problem in this type of house was due to the involvement of two radon entry routes to two chambers: the cellar and the living area of the house. Soil gas carrying radon was driven through the two routes by two coupled disturbance pressures in the chambers. The effects of temperature differences were considered as another driving force for the radon entry. Examined in this study were the effects of the geometry of the substructure, air permeability of the soil, air-tightness of the cellar shell, and cellar ventilation on radon entry to both the cellar and the living area. The ground floor covering on top of the soil outside a cellar wall increased radon entry through this wall by about 68%, as radon built up to a very high level under the covering. The effect of cellar ventilation was found as follows: the cellar ventilation created a layer of airflow in the soil under the ground floor; the flow passed over a crack in the ground floor, the entry route to the living area, diluting the radon in the area. Hence, the soil gas entering the living area carried less radon. Cellar ventilation seems more effective in reducing radon entry to the living area in a more permeable soil and leaky cellar shell; a moderate cellar ventilation condition achieved 77% reduction in radon entry to the area. When permeability of these two materials was lower and soil radon content remained the same, the chances of radon entry was also lower; hence, the indoor radon level was lower and no radon control was needed. When such soil contains high radon concentration, other mitigation measures must be sought.     

Comparative study of different exposure routes on the biotransformation and genotoxicity of PAHs in the flatfish species, Scophthalmus maximus

In this study, laboratory experiments were carried out in order to come to a better understanding of the fate of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the marine environment and especially on their bioaccumulation, biotransformation and genotoxic effects in fish. Juveniles of turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) were exposed to PAHs through different routes via (1) a mixture of dissolved PAHs, (2) a PAH-polluted sediment and (3) an oil fuel elutriate. Fish were exposed 4 days followed by a 6-day depuration period. In each experiment, PAH concentrations in the seawater of the tanks were analysed regularly by gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry. Muscle and liver samples were also analysed for parent PAH levels and PAH bioconcentration factors were calculated. Biotransformation was evaluated by measuring the levels of PAH metabolites in fish bile. Genotoxicity was assessed by the alkaline comet assay. Regardless of exposure route, the parent PAH concentrations in the liver and muscle showed a peak level 1 day after the beginning of the exposure, followed by a decrease up to the background level towards the end of the experiment, except for the exposure to dissolved PAHs for which levels were relatively low throughout the study. As a consequence, no bioaccumulation was observed in fish tissues at the end of the experiment. In contrast, regardless of exposure routes, a rapid production of biliary metabolites was observed throughout the whole exposure experiment. This was especially true for 1-hydroxypyrene, the major metabolite of pyrene. After 6 days of recovery in clean water, a significant decrease in the total metabolite concentrations occurred in bile. Fish exposed through either route displayed a significant increase in DNA strand breaks after 4 days of exposure, and significant correlations were observed between the level of biliary PAH metabolites and the level of DNA lesions in fish erythrocytes. Overall results indicate that exposure to either a mixture of dissolved PAHs, a PAH-contaminated sediment or a dispersed oil fuel elutriate leads to biotransformation and increase in DNA damage in fish. The quantification of PAH metabolites in bile and DNA damage in erythrocytes appear to be suitable for environmental monitoring of marine pollution either in the case of accidental oil spills or sediment contamination.     

Stratospheric ozone depletion, UV-B radiation and crop disease

Ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B: 290-315 nm) is expected to increase as the result of stratospheric ozone depletion. Within the environmental range, UV-B effects on host plants appear to be largely a function of photomorphogenic responses, while effects on fungal pathogens may include both photomorphogenesis and damage. The effects of increased UV-B on plant-pathogen interactions has been studied in only a few pathosystems, and have used a wide range of techniques, making generalisations difficult. Increased UV-B after inoculation tends to reduce disease, perhaps due to direct damage to the pathogen, although responses vary markedly between and within pathogen species. Using Septoria tritici infection of wheat as a model system, it is suggested that even in a species that is inherently sensitive to UV-B, the effects of ozone depletion in the field are likely to be small compared with the effects of variation in UV-B due to season and varying cloud. Increased UV-B before inoculation causes a range of effects in different systems, but an increase in subsequent disease is a common response, perhaps due to changes in host surface properties or chemical composition. Although it seems unlikely that most crop diseases will be greatly affected by stratospheric ozone depletion within the limits currently expected, the lack of a detailed understanding of the mechanisms by which UV-B influences plant-pathogen interactions in most pathosystems is a significant limit to such predictions.     

Plant and Vegetation Dynamics on Disko Island,West Greenland: Snapshots Separated by Over 40 Years

We report on a revisit in 2009 to sites where vegetation was recorded in 1967 and 1970 on Disko Island, West Greenland. Re-sampling of the same clones of the grass Phleum alpinum after 39 years showed complete stability in biometrics but dramatic earlier onset of various phenological stages that were not related to changes in population density. In a fell-field community, there was a net species loss, but in a herb-slope community, species losses balanced those that were gained. The type of species establishing and increasing in frequency and/or cover abundance at the fell-field site, particularly prostrate dwarf shrubs, indicates a possible start of a shift towards a heath, rather than a fell-field community. At the herb-slope site, those species that established or increased markedly in frequency and/or cover abundance indicate a change to drier conditions. This is confirmed both by the decrease in abundance of Alchemilla glomerulans and Epilobium hornemanii, and the drying of a nearby pond. The causes of these changes are unknown, although mean annual temperature has risen since 1984.