Global hexachlorobenzene emissions

Information from a variety of sources has been assembled to give a global picture of hexachlorobenzene (HCB) emissions in the mid 1990s. No single overwhelming source of HCB was identified. The best estimates of global HCB emissions from different categories of sources are as follows: pesticides application - 6500 kg/yr; manufacturing - 9500 kg/yr; combustion - 7000 kg/yr, includes 500 kg from biomass burning. This adds up to total current HCB emissions of approximately 23,000 kg/yr with an estimated range 12,000-92,000 kg/yr. A substantial portion of HCB measured in the atmosphere is thought to come from volatilization of "old" HCB on the soil from past contamination along with unidentified sources. No information on potential sources in developing countries was available.     

Global total ozone dynamics

An overview of the ozone issues is given including the following aspects: 1. The impact of tropospheric ozone on climate as a greenhouse gas (GHG), 2. Solar activity effects on TO and ozone concentration vertical profiles in both the troposphere and stratosphere (in cases of solar radiation absorption by the stratosphere, an unexpected problem arises via a coupling between processes of increased absorption due to “bursts” of solar activity and an enhanced destruction of ozone molecules due to the same increase resulting in weakening UV radiation absorption) and 3. Surface ozone concentration variations under conditions of polluted urban atmospheres which lead to episodes of photochemical smog formation (dangerous for human health).     

Global tropospheric ozone dynamics

An overview of the tropospheric ozone changes is presented focussing mainly on the tropospheric ozone precursors. The complexity of the problem is shown through the consideration of a great number of relevant substances, like nitrogen compounds, volatile organic compounds, peroxyacetyl nitrate, hydroxyl radical, carbon monoxide, alkyl nitrates. The up-to-date knowledge on the relevant numerical modelling is presented in Part II.     

Global tropospheric ozone dynamics

Various causes of tropospheric changes have been considered in Part I in connection with the analysis of observation data. It is clear however, that the principal instrument for understanding numerous and often interacting causes of ozone changes is numerical modelling. A review of the current status of the numerical modelling has been made for the variability of the ozone concentration in the troposphere. Observation data on tropospheric ozone and relevant numerical modelling results show that a necessity exists to get more adequate global observational data.     

Global change: state of the science

Only recently, within a few decades, have we realized that humanity significantly influences the global environment. In the early 1980s, atmospheric measurements confirmed basic concepts developed a decade earlier. These basic concepts showed that human activities were affecting the ozone layer. Later measurements and theoretical analyses have clearly connected observed changes in ozone to human-related increases of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere. As a result of prompt international policy agreements, the combined abundances of ozone-depleting compounds peaked in 1994 and ozone is already beginning a slow path to recovery. A much more difficult problem confronting humanity is the impact of increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on global climate. The processes that connect greenhouse gas emissions to climate are very complex. This complexity has limited our ability to make a definitive projection of future climate change. Nevertheless, the range of projected climate change shows that global warming has the potential to severely impact human welfare and our planet as a whole. This paper evaluates the state of the scientific understanding of the global change issues, their potential impacts, and the relationships of scientific understanding to policy considerations.     

Global Climate Change and Sustainable Development

A simple low cost contact closure circuit has been developed to control an array of instruments for atmospheric trace species measurements. The modular design allows reconfiguration of existing instrumentation, addition of new instruments and troubleshooting, with minimum interruption to the ongoing measurements.     

Global sulfur emissions from 1850 to 2000

The ASL database provides continuous time-series of sulfur emissions for most countries in the World from 1850 to 1990, but academic and official estimates for the 1990s either do not cover all years or countries. This paper develops continuous time series of sulfur emissions by country for the period 1850-2000 with a particular focus on developments in the 1990s. Global estimates for 1996-2000 are the first that are based on actual observed data. Raw estimates are obtained in two ways. For countries and years with existing published data I compile and integrate that data. Previously published data covers the majority of emissions and almost all countries have published emissions for at least 1995. For the remaining countries and for missing years for countries with some published data, I interpolate or extrapolate estimates using either an econometric emissions frontier model, an environmental Kuznets curve model, or a simple extrapolation, depending on the availability of data. Finally, I discuss the main movements in global and regional emissions in the 1990s and earlier decades and compare the results to other studies. Global emissions peaked in 1989 and declined rapidly thereafter. The locus of emissions shifted towards East and South Asia, but even this region peaked in 1996. My estimates for the 1990s show a much more rapid decline than other global studies, reflecting the view that technological progress in reducing sulfur based pollution has been rapid and is beginning to diffuse worldwide.     

Global climate change in the instrumental period

The instrumental period of climate history began in the 18th century with the commencement of routine weather observations at fixed sites. Estimates of global-mean climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) were not possible, however, until the establishment of extensive observing networks midway through the 19th century. This paper reviews our knowledge of global climate change in the instrumental period. Time series of global-mean temperature and precipitation are examined and a comparison is made between two independent 30-year climatologies: 1931-1960 and 1961-1990. Examples are also provided of regional-scale climate changes. Such assessments are important for two reasons. First, they establish the variability of climate on the time-scale of decades, time-scales upon which it is reasonable to plan economic and socio-political activities. Second, and more specifically, they enable us to quantify the magnitude of global-mean climate change which has occurred over this period. Such detailed diagnostic climate information is a necessary, although not sufficient, prerequisite for the detection of global-scale warming which may have occurred due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Some attention is given to explanations of the observed changes in global-mean climate.     

Global emissions of HFC-23 estimated to year 2015

HFC-23 (trifluoromethane, fluoroform, CHF₃) is a powerful greenhouse gas that is formed at the reactor stage of the manufacture of HCFC-22 (chlorodifluoromethane, CHClF₂). The amount formed depends on the conditions used in the manufacturing process and, for individual plants, lies between 1% and 4% of the production of HCFC-22. While it is possible to reduce the formation of HFC-23 by optimising process conditions, it is not possible to eliminate its production. This requires destruction, generally by thermal oxidation. Under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries have obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and, in the developing world, there are projects under the Clean Development Mechanism for the incineration of HFC-23 waste streams. These should lead to a reduction in average global emission factors relative to production of HCFC-22. We present estimates of global production of HCFC-22 up to the year 2015 and also the calculated range of emissions of HFC-23 that may be consequences of this. In terms of the effect on climate change, the atmospheric burden of HFC-23 accumulated from emissions is calculated to contribute between 0.1% and 0.2% of the radiative forcing of climate in 2015. Annual emissions of HFC-23 would be equivalent to between 284 and 28 million tonnes of CO₂ in that year, when total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are predicted to lie between 46,000 million and 59,000 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent.     

Global circulation of atmospheric mercury: a modelling study

This paper presents a comprehensive atmospheric global and regional mercury model and its capability in describing the atmospheric cycling of mercury. This is an on-line model (integrated within the Canadian operational environmental forecasting and data assimilation system) which can be used to understand the role of meteorology in mercury cycling (atmospheric pathways), the inter-annual variability of mercury and can be evaluated against observations on global scales. This is due to the fact that the model uses a combination of actual observed and predicted meteorological state of the atmosphere at high resolution to integrate the model as opposed to the climatological approach used in existing global mercury models. The model was integrated and evaluated on global scale using only anthropogenic emissions. North to south gradients in mercury concentrations, seasonal variability, dry and wet deposition and vertical structure are well simulated by the model. The model was used to explain the observed seasonal variations in atmospheric mercury circulation. The results from this study include a global animation of surface air concentrations of total gaseous mercury for 1997.     

Global climate change: The quantifiable sustainability challenge

Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear, and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and U.S. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues.

Implications:?This paper lays out the case that mitigating the potential for catastrophic climate change will be a monumental challenge, requiring the global community to transform its energy system in an aggressive, coordinated, and timely manner. If this challenge is to be met, new technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear, and transportation technologies are particularly important. Even with an aggressive international mitigation effort, humanity will still need to adapt to significant climate change.