Brushland fire-management policies: A cross-impact simulation of southern California

A cross-impact simulation computer language, UW-KSIM, is presented as a potentially useful technique for assessing the consequences of resource policies. Cross-impact simulation is used to estimate trends in a set of variables that result from interactions produced from hypothesized relationships among the members of the set. This technique is illustrated with an example that simulates the likely impacts of a 20-year rotation burn policy in southern California's brushland watersheds and that compares the results to a simulated representation of the observed effects of the fire-exclusion policy. Simulated losses under the fire-exclusion policy were up to 300% higher than those produced by the rotation burn policy. Similarly, the simulated average area burned per year was reduced from 5.6% of the study area under the fire-exclusion policy to 2% of the study area under the rotation burn policy. A corresponding reduction in simulated appropriations for fighting wildfires was also demonstrated.     

Using Satellite Fire Detection to Calibrate Components of the Fire Weather Index System in Malaysia and Indonesia

Vegetation fires have become an increasing problem in tropical environments as a consequence of socioeconomic pressures and subsequent land-use change. In response, fire management systems are being developed. This study set out to determine the relationships between two aspects of the fire problems in western Indonesia and Malaysia, and two components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. The study resulted in a new method for calibrating components of fire danger rating systems based on satellite fire detection (hotspot) data. Once the climate was accounted for, a problematic number of fires were related to high levels of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code. The relationship between climate, Fine Fuel Moisture Code, and hotspot occurrence was used to calibrate Fire Occurrence Potential classes where low accounted for 3% of the fires from 1994 to 2000, moderate accounted for 25%, high 26%, and extreme 38%. Further problems arise when there are large clusters of fires burning that may consume valuable land or produce local smoke pollution. Once the climate was taken into account, the hotspot load (number and size of clusters of hotspots) was related to the Fire Weather Index. The relationship between climate, Fire Weather Index, and hotspot load was used to calibrate Fire Load Potential classes. Low Fire Load Potential conditions (75% of an average year) corresponded with 24% of the hotspot clusters, which had an average size of 30% of the largest cluster. In contrast, extreme Fire Load Potential conditions (1% of an average year) corresponded with 30% of the hotspot clusters, which had an average size of 58% of the maximum. Both Fire Occurrence Potential and Fire Load Potential calibrations were successfully validated with data from 2001. This study showed that when ground measurements are not available, fire statistics derived from satellite fire detection archives can be reliably used for calibration. More importantly, as a result of this work, Malaysia and Indonesia have two new sources of information to initiate fire prevention and suppression activities.     

Evaluating the effects of local floodplain management policies on property owner behavior

Floodplain management programs have been adopted by more than 85% of local governments in the nation with designated flood hazard areas. Yet, there has been little evaluation of the influence of floodplain policies on private sector decisions. This article examines the degree to which riverine floodplain management affects purchase and mitigation decisions made by owners of developed floodplain property in ten selected cities in the United States. We find that the stringency of such policies does not lessen floodplain property buying because of the overriding importance of site amenity factors. Indeed, flood protection measures incorporated into development projects appear to add to the attractiveness of floodplain location by increasing the perceived safety from the hazard. Property owner responses to the flood hazard after occupancy involve political action more often than individual on-site mitigation. Floodplain programs only minimally encourage on-site mitigation by the owner because most owners have not experienced a flood and many are unaware of the flood threat. It is suggested that floodplain programs will be more effective in meeting their objectives if they are directed at intervention points earlier in the land conversion process.     

Evaluating the cumulative effects of alteration on New England wetlands

In New England, patterns of glacial deposition strongly influence wetland occurrence and function. Many wetlands are associated with permeable deposits and owe their existence to groundwater discharge. Whether developed on deposits of high or low permeability, wetlands are often associated with streams and appear to play an important role in controlling and modifying streamflow. Evidence is cited showing that some wetlands operate to lessen flood peaks, and may have the seasonal effect of increasing spring discharges and depressing low flows. Wetlands overlying permeable deposits may be associated with important aquifers where they can produce slight modifications in water quality and head distribution within the aquifer. Impacts to wetlands undoubtedly will affect these functions, but the precise nature of the effect is difficult to predict. This is especially true of incremental impacts to wetlands, which may, for example, produce a change in streamflow disproportionate to wetland area in the drainage basin, i.e., a nonlinear effect as defined by Preston and Bedford (1988). Additional research is needed before hydrologic function can be reliably correlated with physical properties of wetlands and landscapes.A model is proposed to structure future research and explore relationships between hydrologic function and physical properties of wetlands and landscapes. The model considers (1) the nature of the underlying deposits (geologic type), (2) location in the drainage basin (topographic position), (3) relationship to the principal zone of saturation (hydrologic position), and (4) hydrologic character of the organic deposit.     

Development of a Quantitative Pasture Phosphorus Management Tool Using the SWAT Model1

Abstract: Assessment tools to evaluate phosphorus loss from agricultural lands allow conservation planners to evaluate the impact of management decisions on water quality. Available tools to predict phosphorus loss from agricultural fields are either: (1) qualitative indices with limited applicability to address offsite water quality standards, or (2) models which are prohibitively complex for application by most conservation planners. The purpose of this research was to develop a simple interface for a comprehensive hydrologic/water quality model to allow its usage by farmers and conservation planners. The Pasture Phosphorus Management (PPM) Calculator was developed to predict average annual phosphorus (P) losses from pastures under a variety of field conditions and management options. PPM Calculator is a vastly simplified interface for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that requires no knowledge of SWAT by the user. PPM Calculator was validated using 33 months of data on four pasture fields in northwestern Arkansas. This tool has been extensively applied in the Lake Eucha/Spavinaw Basin in northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. PPM Calculator allows conservation planners to take advantage of the predictive capacity of a comprehensive hydrologic water quality model typically reserved for use by hydrologists and engineers. This research demonstrates the applicability of existing water quality models in the development of user friendly P management tools.     

Evaluation of the Fire Simulation Processes of the National Fire Management System's Initial Attack Analysis Processor

The fire simulation processes of the National Fire Management System's (NFMAS) Initial Attack Analysis (IAA) processor were evaluated by conducting two types of sensitivity analysis: one based on a hypothetical set of data to assess IAA's outputs under a wide range of fire input values, and the other using an actual Stanislaus National Forest database to test IAA's validity with a real set of data. The results revealed that IAA's outputs (projected annual number of fires and area burned) were most sensitive, in descending order, to the input values of the fire spread rate, the productivity rates of the suppression forces, and the initial attack time, for all fuel models tested. In contrast, IAA's outputs were extremely insensitive to variations in the fire size at discovery. Changes are necessary in the ways IAA incorporates the fire size at discovery to facilitate the comparison among various fire detection options. The program's “escaped fire situation” analysis was found inadequate, because the projected annual frequencies and final sizes of the simulated escaped fire events produced unacceptable results with the Stanislaus National Forest database. Assigning final sizes to simulated escaped fires according to the fire intensity level in which they are historically expected to occur provides a consistent way of calculation of the projected annual area burned and the consequent cost plus net value change (C + NVC).     

Status and management of watersheds in the Upper Pokhara Valley,Nepal

Contributing to the debate on the causes of Himalayan environmental degradation, the status and management of four watersheds in the Upper Pokhara Valley were studied using information available from land use analysis, household surveys conducted in 1989 and 1992, deliberations held with villagers, and field observations. Accordingly, areas under forests and grazing lands were found being depleted at relatively high rates between 1957 and 1978 due mainly to the government policy of increasing national revenue by expansion of agricultural lands, nationalization of forests, steadily growing population, and dwindling household economy. Despite the steady growth of population, this process had remarkably slackened since 1978, owing primarily to remaining forests being located in very, steep slopes and implementation of the community forestry program. Forests with relatively sparase tree density, however, and grazing lands in the vicinity of settlements have been undergoing degradation due to fuelwood and fodder collection and livestock grazing. In many instances, this is aggravated by weak resource management institutions. Being particularly aware of the economic implication of land degradation, farmers have adopted assorted land management practices. Still a substantial proportion ofbari lands in the hill slopes is vulnerable to accelerating degradation, as the arable cropping system is being practiced there as well. The perpetuation of the local subsistence economy is certain to lead, to a further deterioration of the socioeconomic and environmental conditions of watersheds. To facilitate environmental conservation and ecorestructuring for sustainable development, a broad watershed management strategy is outlined with focus on alleviating pressure on natural resources.     

Simulating the impacts of fire: A computer program

Recurrent fire has played a dominant role in the ecology of southwestern ponderosa pine forests. To assess the benefits or losses of fire in these forests, a computer simulation model, called BURN, considers vegetation (mortality, regeneration, and production of herbaceous vegetation), wildlife (populations and habitats), and hydrology (streamflow and water quality). In the formulation of the model, graphical representations (time-trend response curves) of increases or losses (compared to an unburned control) after the occurrence of fire are converted to fixedterm annual ratios, and then annuities for the simulation components. Annuity values higher than 1.0 indicate benefits, while annuity values lower than 1.0 indicate losses. Studies in southwestern ponderosa pine forests utilized in the development of BURN are described briefly.     

Application of the wilderness travel simulation model to the Appalachian Trail in Vermont

The wilderness travel simulation model estimates complex recreation use patterns in park and wilderness environments. The model was applied to a section of the Appalachian Trail in Vermont, a linear, long-distance, multiple-access trail system characteristic of the eastern United States. Many portions of the trail, including the study area, are now experiencing high use. The model estimated the average number of trail encounters per party day to be 3.3 and the average number of camp encounters per party night to be 2.3. Other measures of recreation use were also estimated that should prove useful to trail management and administration. Three trail management scenarios were tested, providing several preliminary insights to managers: the desirability of use redistributions as opposed to across-the-board reductions and needed emphasis on spatial use patterns and campsite encounters. Only minor modifications to the program were needed in applying the model to the trail environment and the model functioned accurately according to the validity tests performed.     

Multicriteria Evaluation of Water Resources Sustainability in the Context of Watershed Management1

Kang, Min‐Goo and Gwang‐Man Lee, 2011. Multicriteria Evaluation of Water Resources Sustainability in the Context of Watershed Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):813‐827. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00559.x Abstract: To evaluate water resources sustainability at the watershed scale within a river basin’s context, the Water Resources Sustainability Evaluation Model is developed. The model employs 4 criteria (economic efficiency, social equity, environmental conservation, and maintenance capacity) and has 16 indicators, integrating them using their relative weights. The model is applied to evaluate the water resources sustainability of watersheds in the Geum River basin, South Korea. A geographic information system is employed to efficiently build a database for the indicators, and the values of the indicators are normalized using the probability distribution functions fitted to the datasets of the indicators. The evaluation results show that, overall, the water resources sustainability of the watersheds in the upper basin is better than other areas due to the good environmental conditions and the dam management policies of South Korea. The analysis of the correlations among the model’s components and the comparison between the results of the model and the Water Poverty Index show that the model can provide reasonable evaluation results for the water resources sustainability of watersheds. Consequently, it is concluded that the model can be an effective tool for evaluating the states of water resource management from the perspective of sustainable development and provide a basis on which to create policies for improving any inadequacies in watersheds.     

Linking Hydrologic Alteration to Biological Impairment in Urbanizing Streams of the Puget Lowland,Washington, USA1

Abstract: We used a retrospective approach to identify hydrologic metrics with the greatest potential for ecological relevance for use as resource management tools (i.e., hydrologic indicators) in rapidly urbanizing basins of the Puget Lowland. We proposed four criteria for identifying useful hydrologic indicators: (1) sensitive to urbanization consistent with expected hydrologic response, (2) demonstrate statistically significant trends in urbanizing basins (and not in undeveloped basins), (3) be correlated with measures of biological response to urbanization, and (4) be relatively insensitive to potentially confounding variables like basin area. Data utilized in the analysis included gauged flow and benthic macroinvertebrate data collected at 16 locations in 11 King County stream basins. Fifteen hydrologic metrics were calculated from daily average flow data and the Pacific Northwest Benthic Index of Biological Integrity (B‐IBI) was used to represent the gradient of response of stream macroinvertebrates to urbanization. Urbanization was represented by percent Total Impervious Area (%TIA) and percent urban land cover (%Urban). We found eight hydrologic metrics that were significantly correlated with B‐IBI scores (Low Pulse Count and Duration; High Pulse Count, Duration, and Range; Flow Reversals, T_Qmean, and R‐B Index). Although there appeared to be a great deal of redundancy among these metrics with respect to their response to urbanization, only two of the metrics tested – High Pulse Count and High Pulse Range – best met all four criteria we established for selecting hydrologic indicators. The increase in these high pulse metrics with respect to urbanization is the result of an increase in winter high pulses and the occurrence of high pulse events during summer (increasing the frequency and range of high pulses), when practically none would have occurred prior to development. We performed an initial evaluation of the usefulness of our hydrologic indicators by calculating and comparing hydrologic metrics derived from continuous hydrologic simulations of selected basin management alternatives for Miller Creek, one of the most highly urbanized basins used in our study. We found that the preferred basin management alternative appeared to be effective in restoring some flow metrics close to simulated fully forested conditions (e.g., T_Qmean), but less effective in restoring other metrics such as High Pulse Count and Range. If future research continues to support our hypothesis that the flow regime, particularly High Pulse Count and Range, is an important control of biotic integrity in Puget Lowland streams, it would have significant implications for stormwater management.     

用系统生成技术提高会计电算化系统的安全性

会计电算化是管理现代化的重要组成部分 ,会计电算化系统的安全性一直是管理信息系统的难点之一。根据多年实践的经验 ,提出采用系统生成技术改进提高会计电算系统的安全性 ,有助于广大中小企业会计电算化的推广应用。     

Determinants of Trust for Public Lands: Fire and Fuels Management on the Bitterroot National Forest

Management of public lands occurs today with high levels of scrutiny and controversy. To succeed, managers seek the support, involvement, and endorsement of the public. This study examines trust as an indicator of managerial success and attempts to identify and measure the components that most influence it. A review of trust literature yielded 14 attributes that were hypothesized to contribute to trust, grouped into the three dimensions of Shared Norms and Values, Willingness to Endorse, and Perceived Efficacy. Operationalizing these attributes and dimensions, a telephone survey was administered to a sample of Montana, USA, residents living adjacent to the Bitterroot National Forest (n = 1,152). Each of the attributes was measured in the context of federal lands fire and fuel management. Structural equation modeling showed that all 14 attributes were found to be influential contributors to levels of trust. Results suggest that if managers are to maintain or increase levels of public trust, they need to consider each of trust’s attributes as they make social, ecological, and economic resource decisions.     

Oil spill vulnerability assessment integrating physical, biological and socio-economical aspects: Application to the Cantabrian coast (Bay of Biscay, Spain)

A methodology has been developed to carry out an integrated oil spill vulnerability index, V, for coastal environments. This index takes into account the main physical, biological and socio-economical characteristics by means of three intermediate indexes. Three different integration methods (worst-case, average and survey-based) along with ESI-based vulnerability scores, V_ESI, proposed for the Cantabrian coast during the Prestige oil spill, have been analyzed and compared in terms of agreement between the classifications obtained with each one for this coastal area. Results of this study indicate that the use of the worst-case index, V_R, leads to a conservative ranking, with a very poor discrimination which is not helpful in coastal oil spill risk management. Due to the homogeneity of this coastal stretch, the rest of the methods, V_I, V_M and V_ESI, provide similar classifications. However, V_M and V_I give more flexibility allowing three indexes for each coastal segment and including socio-economic aspects. Finally, the V_I procedure is proposed here as the more advisable as using this index promotes the public participation that is a key element in the implementation of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (IZCM).     

Using the multiple capitals framework to connect indicators of regional cumulative impacts of mining and pastoralism in the Murray Darling Basin,Australia

It is commonly recognized that there are constraints to successful regional-scale assessment and monitoring of cumulative impacts because of challenges in the selection of coherent and measurable indicators of the effects. It has also been sensibly declared that the connections between components in a region are as important as the state of the elements themselves. These have previously been termed “linked” cumulative impacts/effects. These connections can be difficult to discern because of a complicated set of interactions and unexpected linkages. In this paper we diagnose that a significant cause of these constraints is the selection of indicators without due regard for their inter-relationships in the formulation of the indicator set. The paper examines whether the common “forms of capital”, i.e., natural (renewable and non-renewable), manufactured, social, human and financial capitals, framework is a potential organizing structure. We examine a large region in western NSW Australia where the predominant production systems are mining and grazing for production of wool, beef and lamb. Production in both is driven by consumption of a non-renewable resource, i.e., ore for mining and topsoil for grazing, the latter on the basis that loss rate estimates far exceed soil formation rates. We propose that the challenge of identifying connections of components within and between capital stores can be approached by explicitly separating stores of capital and the flows of capital between stores and between elements within stores, so-called capital fluxes. We attempt to acquire data from public sources for both capital stores and fluxes. The question of whether these data are a sufficient base for regional assessment, with particular reference to connections, is discussed. The well-described challenge of a comparative common currency for stores and fluxes is also discussed. We conclude that the data acquisition is relatively successful for stores and fluxes. A number of linked impacts are identified and discussed. The potential use of money as the common currency for stores and fluxes of capital is considered. The basic proposition is that replacement or preservation costs be used for this. We conclude that the study is sufficiently positive to consider further research in fully-coupled models of capital stores and fluxes.     

The use of aggregate complaints data as an indicator of cumulative social impacts of mining: A case study from the Hunter valley,NSW, Australia

Generally speaking, there is a greater amount of quantitative data available to measure and model the cumulative environmental or economic impacts of mining than the social impacts. In part, this is because social impacts are often inherently more difficult to quantify, but historically there have also been fewer regulatory drivers for companies or state agencies to invest in collecting such data. Regulators in some jurisdictions are now starting to require resource companies to report on aspects of their social performance, but companies and regulators are still struggling to identify appropriate metrics, particularly in regards to cumulative impacts. This paper describes an innovative quantitative approach to tracking how communities experience and respond to increased mining activity, using data from the complaints registers maintained by mines located in the Upper Hunter Valley in New South Wales, Australia. In this study, complaints lodged with five separate mines adjacent to the township of Muswellbrook over several years were aggregated and trends analysed. The aggregated set showed that complaint frequency increased with the increase in mining activity but then decreased as individual complaints were addressed. However, when complaints from near-neighbours were removed, it emerged that the proportion of complaints that came from the town itself steadily increased over time. Further analysis indicated that this increase was closely associated with the amount of mine-disturbed land that could be seen from the town over time, as measured using a combination of remotely sensed data and a digital elevation model. This is persuasive evidence of a cumulative social impact that is more than just the sum of the local impacts of individual mines.     

The perceived scenic effects of clearcutting in the White Mountains of New Hampshire, USA

The scenic effects of clearcutting have been a volatile issue for the American public for much of the past century. A better understanding of the scenic perceptions associated with the cumulative visible effects of clearcutting should contribute to better decisions about its use. This study evaluates the scenic impacts of simulated alternative clearcutting management systems for the White Mountain National Forest. Alternatives represented an unharvested view, and views with removal of 1–5% of the timber every 12 years using either scattered or concentrated clearcut units of 5, 15 and 30 acres in two viewsheds. A random sample of local citizens, four groups of opinion leaders, and US Forest Service employees evaluated these alternatives. Each factor accounts for significant differences in scenic value. All groups rated the scenic value of unharvested scenes very high. All groups find a large drop in scenic value with the introduction of even the least intense harvesting activity. All groups indicated a statistically significant decrease in visual quality as the intensity of harvesting increases. This effect continues throughout the range of harvesting intensities until the level of sustainable yield is reached. In addition, patches 12–15 acres in size were preferred to larger and smaller ones.     

Examination of the effects of disturbance on birds with reference to its importance in ecological assessments

National, European and International legislation regarding the conservation of species and habitats requires professional statements to be made in respect of land use change, as, for example, illustrated by developments. Some developments may cause disturbance to wildlife. Knowledge of the way in which species respond to disturbance has been fragmented, yet is an important consideration in environmental impact assessments. This paper reviews what is known about disturbance factors on the best studied group, birds. A set of extensive appendices summarize the literature on disturbance effects on breeding, breeding success, nest-site choice, population density, community structure, distribution and habitat use. The paper considers human-induced disturbance, public access, water-based recreation, shooting and industrial developments. Mitigation measures are discussed.Human-induced disturbance can have a significant negative effect on breeding success by causing nest abandonment and increased predation. Outside the breeding season, recreation (particularly power boating, sailing and coarse fishing on wetlands) reduces the use of sites by birds. Compensatory feeding at night by some species can probably recoup some of the energy losses caused by disturbance. Public and vehicular access to open landscapes has been shown negatively to affect grazing geese in winter and lowland and upland waders during breeding. Shooting disturbance has been shown to be most important for herbivore feeders which need to spend long periods of the day feeding in order to maintain their energy balance, e.g. wigeon. The provision of refuges devoid of shooting has been fundamental in attracting wildfowl away from non-refuge sites. The response of birds to scaring devices and other control measures is discussed.Effects from industrial developments include direct loss of habitat, disturbance through the presence of humans during the construction process and the presence of artificial light used to illuminate construction sites. On estuaries, engineering operations should avoid the proximity to established roost sites of wading birds. A number of studies showed increased vigilance (and hence reduced feeding time) in flock members feeding near structures which impede their vision of the approach of potential predators.A number of principal management techniques used to reduce disturbance on a site, or to attempt to compensate for habitat loss, are given. For wetland sites, these include excavating new shallow lagoons and grading bank sides, flooding of low-lying pasture, reducing salinity levels in coastal lagoons thereby making them more attractive to the birds' food invertebrates, manipulating water levels to expose mud regularly and creating feeding areas for geese and wigeon, using manipulative livestock grazing. Also used are increasing nesting cover, planting macrophytes, providing islands, spits and promontories, purchasing more land to make a refuge bigger, concealing observers with banks and screens, zoning activities and prohibiting access and avoiding the obstruction of flyways between feeding and roosting areas.     

OLIVERO: the project analysing the future of olive production systems on sloping land in the Mediterranean basin

From 2003 to 2006, a consortium of six European partners analysed the future of olive production systems on sloping land in the Mediterranean basin. Olive production on such land dates back to pre-Roman times, but the production systems (known by the acronym SMOPS, for "Sloping and Mountainous Olive Production Systems"), are under threat. Many are unsustainable environmentally (erosion hazard), socially (exodus of young people) or economically (high labour costs). The OLIVERO research project was possible thanks to a grant of euro1.5 million from the European Union, which gives out euro2.5 billion in subsidies annually for olive production. An extended survey conducted by the project in five sites in Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece revealed the diversity and multifunctionality of SMOPS. Four main systems were identified as important for the future: traditional, organic, semi-intensive and intensive. The conceptual framework of OLIVERO involved six phases, ranging from the initial survey up to policy recommendations. In all phases there was intensive contact with stakeholders and institutions. End-users were identified at three levels: local, intermediate and regional, and national/international. This paper presents the highlights of the physical analysis of land and water resources, crop and land management, and economics and policies. Scenario studies gave insight into the possible future: some SMOPS will be gradually abandoned or transformed into nature conservation areas, others will exploit drip irrigation and follow the intensification patterns of agriculture in the valleys, and a third group will continue to be managed more extensively, perhaps augmenting their income with other activities (possibly off-farm) or turning to organic production systems. At the five international OLIVERO meetings held from 2003 to 2006, knowledge, experience and ideas on the future of olive production systems were intensively exchanged. A network was established for ongoing and future cooperation. Two end-user seminars were held in Matera (Italy) and Lisbon. Over 70 scientific papers have been published.     

The effects of large-scale afforestation and climate change on water allocation in the Macquarie River catchment,NSW, Australia

Widespread afforestation has been proposed as one means of addressing the increasing dryland and stream salinity problem in Australia. However, modelling results presented here suggest that large-scale tree planting will substantially reduce river flows and impose costs on downstream water users if planted in areas of high runoff yield. Streamflow reductions in the Macquarie River, NSW, Australia are estimated for a number of tree planting scenarios and global warming forecasts. The modelling framework includes the Sacramento rainfall-runoff model and IQQM, a streamflow routing tool, as well as various global climate model outputs from which daily rainfall and potential evaporation data files have been generated in OzClim, a climate scenario generator. For a 10% increase in tree cover in the headwaters of the Macquarie, we estimate a 17% reduction in inflows to Burrendong Dam. The drying trend for a mid-range scenario of regional rainfall and potential evaporation caused by a global warming of 0.5 degree C may cause an additional 5% reduction in 2030. These flow reductions will decrease the frequency of bird-breeding events in Macquarie Marshes (a RAMSAR protected wetland) and reduce the security of supply to irrigation areas downstream. Inter-decadal climate variability is predicted to have a very significant influence on catchment hydrologic behaviour. A further 20% reduction in flows from the long-term historical mean is possible, should we move into an extended period of below average rainfall years, such as occurred in eastern Australia between 1890 and 1948. Because current consumptive water use is largely adapted to the wetter conditions of post 1949, a return to prolonged dry periods would cause significant environmental stress given the agricultural and domestic water developments that have been instituted.