The impact of drought on production, consumption and nutrition in southwestern kenya

In this paper I compare the effects of the 1984 drought on agricultural production, income, food consumption, and nutrition of farm and non-farm households in South Nyanza District, Kenya. Survey work covered the period 1984 to 1987. It was the late arrival of the long rains in spring 1984, rather than an absolute shortfall in rain, that caused most of the fluctuations in agricultural production. Agricultural households who were least affected by the drought were able to cope by increasing the amount of cultivated land and by relying more on coarse grain production. Coping strategies for the landless households in South Nyanza were more limited and this group of households therefore experienced greater fluctuations in income between the drought and non-drought periods than did most types of agricultural households. Surprisingly, changes in food consumption between the drought and non-drought periods were small for most households. In spite of differences in production, food availability and incomes, however, the health and nutritional status of pre-school-aged children was not significantly different in the two time periods. Differences in health and nutritional status appear to be influenced more by community-level health and sanitation factors than by differences in agricultural production and incomes in drought and non-drought years.     

Monitoring and responding to famine: lessons from the 1984 - 85 food crisis in kenya

The geographic and temporal scale of institutional responses to food crises suggests three levels of food information or famine early warning system: a seasonal national food balance, baseline data on household food poverty and estimates of vulnerability to climatic and economic variations, and targeted interventions based on individual entitlements and food deprivation. Stimulating the demand for food information, beyond the need to forecast famines, is a crucial factor in the adoption of improved monitoring systems. Issues in the design of food information systems are illustrated by the experience in Kenya in 1984–85. The government of Kenya responded to the 1984 drought and ensuing food crisis to prevent widespread famine, largely through timely commercial imports of yellow maize. Although qualified by the nature of the drought and Kenya's economic development, this success story emphasises the need to improve food information systems.     

National organizations and famine early warning the case of mali(1)

In the Sahelian countries of West Africa, the problems of drought and famine are sufficiently long term to justify the existence of permanent food security agencies. Yet donors are reluctant to fund these agencies when there is not a crisis, forcing poor countries to use their own resources for food security and famine early warning efforts. To make more effective use of limited resources and since the data needs for effective famine early warning are similar to those for basic rural development, information systems to provide data simultaneously for development projects and famine early warning should be developed and supported. In Mali, one of the larger and poorer countries of the West African Sahel, basic information systems which gather a range of appropriate data already exist, but there need to be improvements in the quality of design and the timeliness of analysis to make the information more useful for either development or famine early warning.     

Impact of a commercial destocking relief intervention in Moyale district, southern Ethiopia

A commercial destocking intervention was piloted in southern Ethiopia during the drought of early 2006. The intervention led to the purchase of an estimated 20,000 cattle valued at USD 1.01 million. On average, destocked households received USD 186 from the sale of cattle--approximately 5,405 households were involved. In terms of aid investment, the approximate cost-benefit ratio was 41:1. During the drought, income from destocking accounted for 54.2 per cent of household income (n = 114 households), and was used to buy food, care for livestock, meet various domestic expenses, support relatives, and either pay off debts or augment savings. Seventy-nine per cent of the income derived from destocking was used to buy local goods or services. Expenditure on livestock care amounted to 36.5 per cent of local spending, and included the private transportation of livestock to better grazing areas. The buoyant livestock export trade was considered to be an important driver of commercial destocking, demonstrating a positive link between livestock and meat exports, and pastoral vulnerability during drought.     

An Examination of the 1990-91 Famine in Sudan

Shortly before and during the harvest of 1990, a series of warnings were issued by concerned international and UN agencies that Sudan would experience a very poor harvest followed by an acute food shortage over the period 1990-91. The 1990 harvest was estimated to be similar to that obtained in 1984. After the very poor harvest in 1984, Sudan experienced a major famine during which deaths may have numbered in the hundreds of thousands. There were fears that this experience might be repeated in 1990 - 91. By the time of the subsequent 1991 harvest, it was clear to all that a severe food crisis had been experienced. There were severe shortages of water and food and very high malnutrition rates of children were noted by UNICEF across a wide range of areas. Despite these adverse indications, starvation deaths were probably numbered in thousands, rather than hundreds of thousands. Famine mortality, which may include deaths from famine associated disease, was similarly low. The initial predictions, it now seems, may have over-estimated famine mortality almost one hundred times. Several potential explanations of the over-estimate are examined. These include prediction errors, government and donor responses to the drought such as food aid and immunization, and traditional community and household level coping strategies in times of food shortage.     

The social context of childcare practices and child malnutrition in Niger's recent food crisis

In 2004–05, Niger suffered a food crisis during which global attention focused on high levels of acute malnutrition among children. In response, decentralised emergency nutrition programmes were introduced into much of southern Niger. Child malnutrition, however, is a chronic problem and its links with food production and household food security are complex. This qualitative, anthropological study investigates pathways by which children are rendered vulnerable in the context of a nutritional 'emergency'. It focuses on household-level decisions that determine resource allocation and childcare practices in order to explain why practices apparently detrimental to children's health persist. Risk aversion, the need to maintain self-identity and status, and constrained decision making result in a failure to invest extra necessary resources ingrowth-faltering children. Understanding and responding to the social context of child malnutrition will help humanitarian workers to integrate their efforts more effectively with longer-term development programmes aimed at improving livelihood security.     

Composite indicators for famine early warning systems

Traditional famine early warning systems use a host of indicators to predict food crisis situations, from rainfall and increased rate of marketing of household durables to the behavior of birds and animals. Although many of these indicators are valid in general, limited understanding of the sensitivity and specificity of the distress signals makes food crisis prediction a highly subjective exercise. In order to make the system more effective and credible, we need to identify a limited number of 'composite' indicators, which naturally summarize most relevant food-related information contained in the specific predictors of food crisis. Considering the chronology of the food production and consumption chain, three composite indicators specific to three different stages of the chain have been identified. The satellite data based Normalized Deviation of Vegetative Index (NDVI), prices of major food grains, and malnutrition rates are found to be correlated not only with the quality and quantity of inputs of this process but also with the final outcome. Both NDVI and price data are widely used as important predictors of food crisis by famine warning systems. What we have demonstrated is that improved sensitivity of the indicators is likely to be due to their inherent capability of summarizing information from various specific measures. Child malnutrition rates also summarize inputs and outputs of the food consumption process very effectively, and therefore should be able to predict community level food crisis in an efficient manner. The empirical results confirm this conjecture by showing that malnutrition rates can predict food crisis probability three months into the future with a high degree of specificity. The use of 'composite' indicators not only simplifies the problem of aggregation, but is also likely to yield forecasts that are highly specific and sensitive.     

Institutional, policy and farmer responses to drought: El Niño events and rice in the Philippines

Droughts are common recurring natural hazards in Asia, and El Niño events are particularly severe in the Philippines. This paper explores responses by farm households, irrigation system managers, and macro policymakers in the Philippines to El Niño. In response to the large 1997–98 El Niño, farmers in one major irrigation system significantly diversified their economic activities, hut the drought was so acute that many of these activities were not successful. Communication between meteorologists and irrigation system managers is strong, and irrigation system managers are aware of El Niño events in advance. Communication between irrigation system managers and farmer irrigation associations is also strong, and together they have developed response options that attempt to augment supplies of and more efficiently allocate scarce water. Water pricing is not used, however, and lack of cooperation among farmers results in sub-optimal outcomes. Macro-level policy responses in terms of rice imports and buffer stock management to protect poor consumers have improved substantially over time.     

Cyclone Aila,livelihood stress,and migration: empirical evidence from coastal Bangladesh

This paper investigates why households migrated as a unit to Khulna City from the affected Upazilas of Dacope and Koyra in Khulna District, Bangladesh, following Cyclone Aila on 25 May 2009. The study reveals that households migrated primarily because of the livelihood stress that resulted from the failure to derive a secure income like before the event from the impacted areas—other push and pull factors also played a part in their migration decision. Despite all of the Aila‐induced losses and problems, all households wanted to avoid migration, but they were unable to do so for this principal reason. The findings also demonstrate that, if livelihoods cannot be restored, some form of widespread migration is inevitable after a disaster such as this one. In addition, they show that migration has the potential to serve as a key adaptive response to environmental events, as evidenced by the improved economic conditions of a substantial number of the migrated households.     

Targeting the Vulnerable: A Review of the Necessity and Feasibility of Targeting Vulnerable Households

This article examines whether it is possible to target vulnerable households within a geographically defined area. It looks first at the justification for targeting and then reviews recent practical experience in actually trying to reach vulnerable groups. As complex emergencies increasingly last longer, strategies to target vulnerable households are common in the protracted phase of the emergency. While this is often necessary because of a decline in resources, it is not always justified by an improvement in nutritional status or food security of the beneficiary population.
Common target groups are the poor and the malnourished, but in complex emergencies these are not always the most vulnerable. Moreover, recent practical experience has shown considerable difficulties in targeting the poor. Methods to target the poor rely on community-based relief committees, whose priorities are not necessarily the same as those of external agencies. This paper gives examples of such targeted assistance programmes in Kenya, south Sudan and Tanzania. The paper concludes that situations where targeting vulnerable households is justified and feasible are extremely limited. It is suggested that if targeting has to be done because of scarce resources, this should be done on a geographical basis and on the basis of nutritional status. Case-study material shows that it is essential to understand the political determinants of vulnerability and to design methods that will reach the most vulnerable.     

Targeting the vulnerable: a review of the necessity and feasibility of targeting vulnerable households

This article examines whether it is possible to target vulnerable households within a geographically defined area. It looks first at the justification for targeting and then reviews recent practical experience in actually trying to reach vulnerable groups. As complex emergencies increasingly last longer, strategies to target vulnerable households are common in the protracted phase of the emergency. While this is often necessary because of a decline in resources, it is not always justified by an improvement in nutritional status or food security of the beneficiary population. Common target groups are the poor and the malnourished, but in complex emergencies these are not always the most vulnerable. Moreover, recent practical experience has shown considerable difficulties in targeting the poor. Methods to target the poor rely on community-based relief committees, whose priorities are not necessarily the same as those of external agencies. This paper gives examples of such targeted assistance programmes in Kenya, south Sudan and Tanzania. The paper concludes that situations where targeting vulnerable households is justified and feasible are extremely limited. It is suggested that if targeting has to be done because of scarce resources, this should be done on a geographical basis and on the basis of nutritional status. Case-study material shows that it is essential to understand the political determinants of vulnerability and to design methods that will reach the most vulnerable.     

The Impact of a Reduced and Uncertain Food Supply in Three Besieged Cities of Bosnia-Hercegovina

Nutritional status and household food security were longitudinally monitored in three besieged cities of Bosnia-Hercegovina (Sarajevo, Zenica and Tuzla) during the winter and spring of 1993 to 1994. The objectives were to provide early warning of a deterioration in the food and nutrition situation and identify particularly vulnerable groups so that action could be taken to prevent potential undernutrition and target resources to the most needy. Before the cease-fire, which came into effect at the end of February 1994, trends in various indicators (weight loss, decline of household food stocks, rising food prices, reduction in food aid distribution, sale of possessions) suggested that the situation was deteriorating. Access to food improved as a result of the cease-fire, however, which was reflected in improvements in indicators of food security and weight gain. The impact of, and response to, the food emergency differed between individuals, households and locations; the elderly were found to be more nutritionally vulnerable than children or adults, households with the least access to resources were the most food insecure, while the city of Zenica appeared to be particularly hard hit. The findings show the effects of an uncertain and reduced food supply on a previously well-fed healthy population in an industrialised country. The value and constraints of an Early Warning System set up to monitor trends in an emergency in a European context are discussed.     

The influence of caste,class and gender in surviving multiple disasters: A case study from Orissa,India

Sociological and anthropological studies in India reveal that caste, class and gender in everyday life are both rigid and dynamic, but little is known about how they influence the survival mechanisms of women during ‘multiple disasters’, nor about how women negotiate with these structural mores to meet their cultural and biological needs. This is explored through the experiences of 12 women-headed households from different social castes in Orissa, India. Multiple disasters or disasters that occur in ‘one specific place’ (such as floods, cyclone and drought) are regular events in coastal parts of the state of Orissa. The super-cyclone of 1999, two floods of 2001 and 2003 and drought of 2000 and 2002 form the case study. Participant observation, in-depth interviews and documentary evidence complement the fieldwork. The findings suggest a complex interplay of caste, class and gender in surviving the multiple disasters including structural mutability under the purview of social organization. In doing so, women demonstrated their individual and collective agencies in order to meet their cultural and biological needs under severe crisis. This research stresses that gender and disaster studies must include a consideration of caste and class for effective disaster management and social vulnerability reduction.     

Are non‐poor households always less vulnerable? The case of households exposed to protracted civil war in Southern Sudan

Civil wars in Africa are now the leading contributory cause of vulnerability of rural communities. Understanding vulnerability during civil war is critical for humanitarian response and post-conflict rehabilitation planning. The lack of understanding of vulnerability has led existing studies to make sweeping generalizations, either by equating the dynamics of vulnerability during civil wars with vulnerability in other risk events, or by projecting people in the 'war zones' as unable to cope and subsequently becoming vulnerable. This paper is an attempt to gain a more nuanced understanding of the dynamics of vulnerability during protracted civil war. It shows that during civil war the non-poor are not necessarily less vulnerable than poor households. The idea that people caught up in civil war are all vulnerable is not supported by the findings of this paper. It shows that the 'standard' pattern of vulnerability to drought is similar to that during exogenous counter-insurgency warfare, while a different pattern of vulnerability to endogenous shocks is identified.     

Looking beyond food aid to livelihoods, protection and partnerships: strategies for WFP in the Darfur states

The humanitarian crisis in Darfur remains extremely serious. The optimism that followed the signing of the Abuja Peace Accord was followed by a rapid deterioration in security on the ground in part associated with increasing factionalism in various rebel movements. This paper briefly reviews the evolution of the crisis, its impact on lives and livelihoods and the response by the World Food Programme (WFP) to June 2006. The major challenges and issues facing the food aid programme in the previous 18 months included: dealing with insecurity while maintaining or even extending programme outreach; the need to link protection with assistance more explicitly; and determining the wider impact of food aid programming on the processes and institutions linked with the conflict. The paper discusses the main strategic issues facing WFP in the future such as: integrating security and protection with needs assessments and operational decisions, broadening response strategies beyond food aid and bringing livelihoods to the fore, the need to review cost-efficiency, promoting partnerships and strengthening national and regional capacities.     

Hunger, poverty and food aid in Sub-Saharan Africa: Retrospect and potential

Frustrations and failures will continue to mount if we do not immediately summon the courage to revise the ways we think and take action-as well as maintaining essential services to support life and health … Saving hundreds of thousands … who are at risk of dying from malnutrition or infection is an immediate imperative. But it must be only one stage in the progress toward other activities, and one element in the truly comprehensive approach… The main intent of this paper is to explore aspects of the nature and evolution of poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa with special reference to food and hunger and their interaction with macro-economic policy. An attempt is made to outline the overall context within which food aid needs to be used in order to have a greater developmental impact. Following an Introductory Section I, Section II provides a sketch map of how recession and lagging food production - with cyclical weather crises superimposed - affect the human condition of poor people. Section III reviews die interaction between "standard" IMF stabilization and World Bank structural adjustment strategies and poverty/hunger. Improvements in the design of stabilization and adjustment programmes, and of the inter-relationship with them of emergency programmes, can be identified. A number turn on the broadened and more innovative or catalytic use of food aid. Section IV reviews aspects of facing a continuing series of emergencies and of designing life support programmes to facilitate rehabilitation of the households directly affected as well as of the national economies. From this base it explores a series of elements in achieving renewed development. The concluding Section seeks to explore the strengths, limitations and potentials of food aid in the context set by the previous sections. The standard criticisms of food aid appear to be overstated and/or to relate to particular modalities or approaches rather than to anything intrinsic. A number of criteria for improving the effectiveness of food aid - especially in respect to rehabilitation, recovery and renewed development - are set out.     

From drought relief to post-disaster recovery: The case of Botswana

This article discusses the initiative of the Government of Botswana in formulating and introducing a programme to assist recovery in rural areas after the present drought period as an important aspect of the national development effort. It examines the process by which this Post Drought Recovery Programme was arrived at, its limitations, the extent of its appropriateness to longer-term factors which render rural households more vulnerable to drought, and suggests conclusions which may be drawn to inform the design of similar programmes elsewhere.     

Food acquisition during the African drought of 1983–1984: A study of Kenyan herders

In 1983 and 1984, drought spread across the northern rangelands of Kenya and herders in lowland Samburu lost substantial portions of their livestock. Food aid arrived when 50 to 75% of the cattle had already died, and after poorer pastoralists were hungry enough to sell their remaining productive animals. No pastoralists died of the immediate effects of the drought, but many were so impoverished that their longer-term prospects for remaining as herders look dim.
This essay discusses the timing and content of famine relief as it applies both to Samburu and other food-stressed areas. It focuses on the process of food acquisition during the northern Kenyan drought itself. The more "indigenous" food strategies of herding, hunting and gathering offered limited benefits. Equally, however, commercial channels for procuring food proved inadequate. Herders could not reliably sell animals to obtain cash for purchased food, nor were the grain and sugar staples always available even when cash was on hand. Lacking means to provide for themselves, Samburu came to depend on varied kinds of handouts.     

War and Food Security in Eritrea and Ethiopia, 1998–2000

This paper examines the 1998–2000 'border' war between Eritrea and Ethiopia and its continuing legacies from the perspective of food security.¹ Focusing on the food crisis that hit both countries during the same period and was allowed to develop into a famine in southeast Ethiopia, it argues that this was linked with the war in more ways than hitherto recognised. Such connections can be appreciated only by taking a longer-term view of the decline of the rural economy of which this food crisis was part, factoring in the role played by this and other conflicts that have flared up in the region. An analysis of this kind might have helped donors and aid agencies to respond more effectively both to short-term humanitarian needs in the midst of an inter-state war and to the need for longer-term support for food security in a region beset by endemic conflict.