Chinese resource security policies and the restructuring of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market

This paper reviews the restructuring of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market in the wake of the rise of the Chinese steel industry. Prior to the 2000s, this market was characterised by two key features—high firm-level concentration on both the producer and consumer sides, and price determination through annually negotiated benchmark pricing between Australian mining and Japanese steel firms. However, owing to rapid growth in the Chinese steel industry and its emergence as the region's principal iron ore consumer, the Asia-Pacific iron ore market has been dramatically restructured during the last decade. This process has been accelerated since 2005 by Chinese governmental resource security policies, which have sought to address current record high iron ore prices through the use of foreign investment to sponsor new market entrants and the formation of an import cartel amongst the Chinese steel firms. This paper evaluates how these policies have driven restructuring in the Asia-Pacific iron ore market, through an analysis of the growth of China's steel industry, Chinese resource security policies aimed at lowering iron ore import costs, and their effects upon the regional market's ownership structure and price determination mechanisms. It argues that while Chinese investment and cartelisation policies have catalysed significant changes to the ownership and pricing structures of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market, they have carried only mixed benefits for the Chinese steel industry's resource security.     

Long-term iron ore price modeling: Marginal costs vs. incentive price

The paper studies and applies the approaches to forecast long-term (LT) real prices of iron ore. This price is crucial for valuation of investments in Greenfield iron ore projects on the horizon of more than 5 years. The forecast is obtained by three different approaches which are usually used by investment bank analysts: marginal costs approach and 2 approaches based on calculation of incentive price. The paper concludes that there has been a structural shift on the iron ore market and LT iron ore prices will be higher by 20–30% than the average of industry forecasters suggest. This is related to the 2 key factors which were taken into account in this study—depletion of existing iron ore deposits and targeted return on investments for new projects. In addition, escalated industry costs inflation is claimed to be the factor which will bolster nominal iron ore prices at high levels in the long-term. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach, confidence interval for future iron ore price was estimated.     

Forecasting iron ore import and consumption of China using grey model optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm

The iron and steel industry plays a fundamental role in a country's national economy, especially in developing countries. China is the largest iron ore consumption market in the world. However, because of limited domestic iron ore resources, a large proportion of iron ore is imported from other countries. Faced with the conflict between the iron ore supply shortage and the growing demand, it is necessary for the government to predict imports and total consumption. This paper develops a high-precision hybrid model based on grey prediction and rolling mechanism optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm. We use the China Statistical Yearbook (1996–2011) as our database to test the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method. According to the experimental results, the proposed new method clearly can improve the prediction accuracy of the original grey model. Future projections have also been done for iron ore imports and total consumption in China in the next five years.     

The carajas iron ore project: The strategy of a third world state- owned enterprise in a depressed market

This paper describes how the Carajas iron ore project was set up in February 1985 at a time of deep recession in the iron ore and steel industries. Development of the project was met with much criticism, mainly from North American steel makers, who argued that the project would only be successful through the support of a Third World government, highly dependent on foreign exchange, without any consideration being given to its economic feasibility or to the fundamentals of the market. The authors explain why the World Bank took the step of setting up the project and how its development can be partly explained by the interests of the Japanese and European steel makers. The role of the Brazilian government is explained and the authors conclude that the relatively low rate of investment anticipated by the project will be overshadowed by the high gains in foreign exchange.     

An econometric model of the international bauxite-aluminium economy

This simultaneous equation model emphasizes oligopolistic and vertical integration features, and conflict between companies and some bauxite producer country governments. Estimates do not support Koyck lags, or big gaps between long- and short-term elasticities. Strongest influence is industrial activity in advanced countries. Price and substitution elasticities are low. With an 11 year horizon, cartelization gains are high. In the longer term, Australia's participation in, or exclusion from the cartel, and cartelization gains, are strictly interdependent, and dependent on Australia following policies as a bauxite producer, or, more realistically, as an aluminum producer (which makes cartel perspectives poor).     

Seaborne iron ore trade in the 1990s

This paper discusses how world steel production and seaborne iron ore trade have grown since 1950. The role of steel production forecasts in determining investment in the iron ore industry is examined. Forecasts for world steel production and the demand and supply of seaborne iron ore in the 1990s are presented. It is predicted that world steel production will increase by 64 million tons between 1991 and 2000. This increase will be located principally in the developing countries and China. The corresponding increase in seaborne iron ore trade will be approximately 55 million tons. Expansion projects will be located mainly in Australia and Brazil, but no greenfield iron ore projects will be undertaken. By the end of the decade, the demand for seaborne iron ore will be equal to its supply.     

Long term contracts and market stability: The case of iron ore

The paper gives the background to the international iron ore trade and discusses the organization of markets and causes of instability. The role of the long term contract is then examined and possible relationships between prices and quantity instability and the pattern of use of long term contracts is considered. It is concluded that although such contracts tend to promote market stability this may conflict with the need for market readjustment.     

Market structure and bargaining power: A study of three international mineral markets

This paper considers how differences in the structure and arrangements between the international markets for bauxite, iron ore and copper affect the bargaining strength and division of benefits between buyers and sellers. After describing the characteristic features of each market, and noting the absence of appropriate economic theory to disentangle the issue at hand, an attempt is made to clarify the problem by considering the difference between the markets in terms of five factors - degree of concentration, ability of the parties to inflict losses on each other, varying shares of the raw material in final product prices, structure of the market in which the final products are sold, and the process of trade negotiation.     

What do economic simulations tell us? Recent mergers in the iron ore industry

This paper investigates the European Commission's decision to allow a merger between two Brazilian iron ore mining companies, CVRD and Caemi, using data on the Direct Reduced Iron pellet market. By using a simulation model, we can directly simulate the total welfare effects from the merger and hence evaluate the merger from a new perspective. The results from our simulations suggest that the welfare effects are negative from the merger between CVRD and Caemi, which supports the conclusion drawn by the European Commission decision. By performing different simulations between hypothetical merger candidates, our results show that only mergers between small candidates have the potential to be welfare enhancing.     

A horizontal merger in the iron ore industry: An event study approach

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the competitive and efficiency impacts of a large merger in the world iron ore industry, using an event study approach. This method builds on an analysis of stock market reactions of the merging firms as well as close rivals at the time of the merger announcement. The event study method allows for the possibility to assess both the motivations behind as well as the welfare effects of the merger. The event study results for the merger announcement of Rio Tinto and North Ltd. show that, according to the market reactions, the main motive behind the merger was either the market power or the efficiency hypothesis. When adjusting the analysis to include several information releases about the merger, the overall result indicates that efficiency improvements were the predominant motives behind the merger. Thus, the event study results suggest that there are positive welfare effects to expect and the European Commission's decision to allow the merger is supported.     

青龙县铁矿企业对生态环境的影响及防治对策

青龙县部分铁矿企业的无序开采给水土保持、生态环境带来了严重危害。落实科学发展观，以生态科学为指导，建设资源节约型、环境友好型的铁矿开采企业迫在眉睫。为此提出以下防治对策：加大执法力度，加强对铁矿企业的监管；编报水土保持方案，严格审批服务；因地制宜，采取水土保持措施；强化铁矿企业生态环境保护，推广尾矿综合利用。     

Pig iron production structure in Japan

Japan is the world's largest steel producing country, and around half of its total input requirements for coking coal and iron ore are sourced from Australia. Moreover, around half of Australia's total coking coal and iron ore exports go to Japan each year. Therefore, changes in the demand for these two inputs are likely to have a significant impact on Australia. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the production structure of the blast furnaces in Japan and factors affecting the demand for iron making raw materials. The empirical study is based on the generalized Leontief cost function. Because of its functional flexibility, the model allows testing various hypotheses regarding pig iron production from blast furnaces. Based on the data from 1974 to 1991, the modelling results show that the Japanese ironmaking technology, when considered as an aggregate production process using fuel and iron ore as major inputs, could be characterized by fixed factor proportions, constant returns to scale and technical changes that can be explained by systematic changes in input mix. Moreover, while there is little variation in the iron ore usage rate, variations in fuel usage rate can be explained largely by changes in the make-up of iron ore charge and blast furnace production capacity over the sample period.     

Iron ore spot price volatility and change in forward pricing mechanism

To examine the impact of the change in forward pricing mechanism on the volatility of iron ore spot prices, we model the iron ore daily price of Platts IODEX from October 7, 2008 to September 21, 2012. The identified iron ore spot price tends to be less volatile after the introduction of quarterly pricing mechanism. Our main approaches are as follows: (i) to decompose the spot price of Platts IODEX into two subsamples and relate the result of the structural break to the date of the switch in the iron ore forward pricing mechanism; (ii) to apply the EGARCH (1, 1) model to simultaneously capture the long memory and the asymmetric effect on the volatility of the iron ore spot price; and (iii) to delineate the news impact curve to further interpret the asymmetric effect.     

The ‘new’ economics of iron and steel

The author commences his analysis of the iron and steel industry by examining the historical background of the industry, and discusses its importance for the world economy. He examines the implications for the world industry of the successful development of the steel industry in Japan, and traces the evolution of a commodity cartel in the iron ore market, analysing the price levels of the commodity in the ‘free’ and ‘controlled’ markets. Following a discussion of the role of energy and coking coal supplies in the industry, the author examines the evolution of this industry in the less developed countries, with particular reference to the role of technology in the industry's development. He concludes that there have been important structural changes in the world industry, embraced by the concept of ‘partial demise’.     

Horizontal mergers in the iron ore industry—An application of PCAIDS

The purpose of this paper is to estimate and analyse the price effects of the iron ore mergers between Rio Tinto and North Ltd in 2000, and CVRD and Caemi in 2001. The analyses are conducted using a merger simulation model that, based on the pre-merger situation, estimates the post-merger outcome. This paper applies the so-called proportionality-calibrated almost ideal demand system (PCAIDS) model, which assumes that the product is differentiated and that the strategic variable is price. The results from the merger simulations show that in the case of the merger between Rio Tinto and North Ltd, the merged firm has a combined market share of almost 20%. However, the estimated market weighted average price effect is only 2.6%. Regarding the merger between CVRD and Caemi, the merged firm's market share is about 29%, and the estimated market weighted average price effect is 4.6%. When removing Caemi's Canadian asset, which was the Commission decision in order to allow the merger, the market price effect decreases to 3.1%. Overall the results in this study support the Commission's decisions regarding both merger cases, and shows that merger simulations of price effects can be valuable tools in merger assessments.     

Commodity booms and their impacts on the Western Australian economy: The iron ore case

Western Australia is a resource-rich province. Since the 1890s, resources booms have played a key role in the development of the state's economy. In the last few years, Western Australia's resources industry has continued to enjoy exceptional conditions created by strong international demand for commodities. This paper aims to examine the likely impact of this commodity boom in the iron ore sector on the Western Australian economy, using a general equilibrium approach. The modeling results indicate that the Western Australian economy will benefit from the expansion in iron ore exports and investment in terms of rising consumption and employment, although at the industry level there will be losers as well as winners.     

Surface iron ore mining in eastern India and local level sustainability

Mining often brings certain irreversible changes to the surrounding environment. Different types of natural resources mostly surround the mines. Degradation of natural resources around the active mining zone may adversely affect the local economy. After cessation of mining operations local people may no longer be able to sustain their livelihood from the surrounding degraded natural resource; there are chances that the economy of the region will be shattered. The paper deals with this problem of local level sustainability of iron ore mining in eastern India. This problem is examined in the light of different theories of sustainability and national policies. By using household survey data, sustainability of iron ore mining in this region is tested. Substitution of depleting natural capital with other forms of capital can promote long-term sustainability of the local economy. This necessitates certain policy interventions to induce the mine operators to reinvest some part of their resource rent in the natural capital of the region.     

Indian mineral resources — a short review

Though India's iron ore and manganese exports are a major source of foreign exchange, the continent lacks sufficient reserves of many important minerals, or has only recently exploited known reserves on an adequate scale. This article reviews India's mineral resources and points out trends in exploration and production.     

Competitiveness and prospects for the African mining industry

Since the 1960s the Kédia mines have been the main source of iron ore for Mauritania. In the 1970s SN1M, the Mauritanian state enterprise responsible for the mining of the country's iron ore, concerned about the eventual depletion of its reserves at Kédia, and at the urging of its European customers, undertook to develop new iron-ore deposits at the Guelbs. The deposits at the Guelbs, however, were low-grade magnetite ore as opposed to the high-grade hematite ore at Kedia, and were much more costly to mine and process. The cost of the Guelbs project and its failure to meet production targets have strained the resources of SNIM to a financial and technical breaking point. The paper suggests that one solution to SNIM's difficulty may be to mothball the Guelbs project and to develop instead other deposits in the vicinity of the Guelbs.     

Economic rent : Incidence in selected metals and minerals

The magnitude of the ‘economic rent’ and its distribution among producing countries, mineral exploitation companies and consumers has become a dominant issue in national and international policy formulation, but the difficulties in measuring the rent add to the problems of determining its equitable distribution. This paper examines the nature of the rent and estimates its incidence in bauxite, copper, iron ore, phosphate rock, tin and petroleum. Rents were found to be low for bauxite and iron ore. Bauxite, phosphates and petroleum producers have increased their share of the rent, though this trend now seems to be reversing for bauxite and phosphates. Only in tin, and to a lesser extent petroleum, have the exporting countries captured significant shares in total rent. Otherwise, the rent is largely concentrated at the processing stage, which suggests that processing plant would have to shift to the producing countries if they are to claim a larger share.