Multimodel inference and adaptive management

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study's inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.     

Confronting socially generated uncertainty in adaptive management

As more and more organizations with responsibility for natural resource management adopt adaptive management as the rubric in which they wish to operate, it becomes increasingly important to consider the sources of uncertainty inherent in their endeavors. Without recognizing that uncertainty originates both in the natural world and in human undertakings, efforts to manage adaptively at the least will prove frustrating and at the worst will prove damaging to the very natural resources that are the management targets. There will be more surprises and those surprises potentially may prove at the very least unwanted and at the worst devastating. We illustrate how acknowledging uncertainty associated with the natural world is necessary but not sufficient to avoid surprise using case studies of efforts to manage three wildlife species; Hector's Dolphins, American Alligators and Pallid Sturgeon. Three characteristics of indeterminism are salient to all of them; non-stationarity, irreducibility and an inability to define objective probabilities. As an antidote, we recommend employing a holistic treatment of indeterminism, that includes recognizing that uncertainty originates in ecological systems and in how people perceive, interact and decide about the natural world of which they are integral players.     

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

Natural resource economics: Relevance in planning and management

This article provides an overview of natural resource economics. It begins with a summary of historical and current views on resource scarcity. It then discusses economic models for optimal management of non-renewable and renewable resources at the micro and macro levels and evaluates their usefulness in planning, management and policy making.     

Valuing natural resources and the implications for land and water management

New models of sustainable development stress the importance of the efficient management of resources, including labour, capital equipment and natural resources. Overuse of the resource base today will lead to shortages tomorrow; yet it can be a difficult task persuading politicians and planners in developing countries of the importance of resource management. This paper suggests methodologies for doing so and argues the urgency of the task.     

Optimal renewable resource management in the presence of endogenous risk of invasion

In this paper we examine the optimal management of a renewable resource that is at risk from alien species invasion. The objective of this paper is to derive implications for optimal management of a resource when options exist for both preventing the arrival of an invasive species and mitigating the impact of that arrival. Uncertainty about the timing and nature of an invasion can have important implications for the choice of management strategy, and a key feature of this analysis is an explicit treatment of that uncertainty.     

Assessing Uncertainty in Estimates of Nitrogen Loading to Estuaries for Research, Planning, and Risk Assessment

Parametric (propagation for normal error estimates) and nonparametric methods (bootstrap and enumeration of combinations) to assess the uncertainty in calculated rates of nitrogen loading were compared, based on the propagation of uncertainty observed in the variables used in the calculation. In addition, since such calculations are often based on literature surveys rather than random replicate measurements for the site in question, error propagation was also compared using the uncertainty of the sampled population (e.g., standard deviation) as well as the uncertainty of the mean (e.g., standard error of the mean). Calculations for the predicted nitrogen loading to a shallow estuary (Waquoit Bay, MA) were used as an example. The previously estimated mean loading from the watershed (5,400 ha) to Waquoit Bay (600 ha) was 23,000 kg N yr⁻¹. The mode of a nonparametric estimate of the probability distribution differed dramatically, equaling only 70% of this mean. Repeated observations were available for only 8 of the 16 variables used in our calculation. We estimated uncertainty in model predictions by treating these as sample replicates. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of the standard error of the mean loading rate were 12–14%. However, since the available data include site-to-site variability, as is often the case, standard error may be an inappropriate measure of confidence. The standard deviations were around 38% of the loading rate. Further, 95% confidence intervals differed between the nonparametric and parametric methods, with those of the nonparametric method arranged asymmetrically around the predicted loading rate. The disparity in magnitude and symmetry of calculated confidence limits argue for careful consideration of the nature of the uncertainty of variables used in chained calculations. This analysis also suggests that a nonparametric method of calculating loading rates using most frequently observed values for variables used in loading calculations may be more appropriate than using mean values. These findings reinforce the importance of including assessment of uncertainty when evaluating nutrient loading rates in research and planning. Risk assessment, which may need to consider relative probability of extreme events in worst-case scenarios, will be in serious error using normal estimates, or even the nonparametric bootstrap. A method such as our enumeration of combinations produces a more reliable distribution of risk.     

The failure of success in fisheries management

Law of the Sea negotiations and The Fishery Conservation and Management Act of 1976 create new options in fisheries management. Historical analysis of two major management programs in the United States of America, Columbia River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis), shows two unresolved management problems. One is the innovativeness of fishermen in seeking ways to improve their harvests. The other is changing social priorities that are largely unpredictable and outside the control of fisheries managers. A method for analysis of patterning associated with management goals is illustrated. Since the general management goals are harvest improvement and more predictability, measures are used which show the adequacy of fit and reduction in variability between actual and predicted management outcomes.     

Hydropower,adaptive management,and Biodiversity

Adaptive management is a policy framework within which an iterative process of decision making is followed based on the observed responses to and effectiveness of previous decisions. The use of adaptive management allows science-based research and monitoring of natural resource and ecological community responses, in conjunction with societal values and goals, to guide decisions concerning man's activities. The adaptive management process has been proposed for application to hydropower operations at Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, a situation that requires complex balancing of natural resources requirements and competing human uses. This example is representative of the general increase in public interest in the operation of hydropower facilities and possible effects on downstream natural resources and of the growing conflicts between uses and users of river-based resources. This paper describes the adaptive management process, using the Glen Canyon Dam example, and discusses ways to make the process work effectively in managing downstream natural resources and biodiversity.     

Integrating fire management into land-use planning: A multiple-use management research,development, and applications program

The traditional view of fire as a destructive agent requiring immediate suppression is giving way to the view that fire can and should be used to meet land management goals. Thus,fire control is being replaced by the more general concept offire management, which is based on the need to integrate fire policy with land management objectives. The social, economic, and ecologic effects of fire must be evaluated in the selection of land management alternatives.The activities of fire management organizations—fire prevention, control, and use of fire—must respond to needs of land management. Many agencies have developed fire organizations as separate entities that set their own objectives. The many land and resource managers who have recognized the need to incorporate fire considerations into land-use planning have so far lacked the techniques to do so.As a natural process, fire has an important function in forest and range ecosystems. Fire can greatly influence the quantity and quality of resource outputs; it is a two-edged sword that can either harm or benefit our goals, depending upon the complex effects of fire and the nature of our wants.The Fire in Multiple-Use Management Research, Development, and Applications (RD&A) Program was initiated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, at the Northern Forest Fire Lab in Missoula to assist land managers. This profile explains what an RD&A program is; discusses its mission, goals, and approach to the problem; and tells why the approach involves federal laboratories, universities, and private research foundations.     

An analysis of the implementation of an environmental management system in a local public administration

The Environmental Management System (EMS) is commonly implemented in private firms. However, on the basis of a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis, our work analyzes the consequences of implementing an EMS within the context of local public administrations, particularly regarding the City Council of Ohanes in Almería (Spain). This is the first European corporation to implement an EMS according to the ISO 14001 Standard, certified by the Spanish Association of Normalization and Certification. Its analysis would be equivalent to the Shumpeterian "market innovator study", so that public administration "followers" can take advantage of the derived benefits and of minimizing the negative effects of such an experience. On the other hand, we show that the economic and environmental advantages derived from the EMS go beyond the activities that the City Council is in charge of. They have spillover effects that extend them to all economic activities in the municipality and these effects are expected to be increased in the medium and long-term perspective. In this paper, we compare the costs and benefits that the municipality obtains in two cases: the City Council implements the EMS or it does not implement it. The main objective of this article is to show the economic and environmental advantages obtained by a municipality when it is only the City Council who is implementing an EMS. It is logical to suppose that this case study can stimulate other municipalities to use this instrument, even if the economic and environmental characteristics of the municipality are different.     

Analysis of the implementation of effective waste management practices in construction projects and sites

In this paper, the implementation of effective waste management practices in construction projects and sites is analyzed, using data from a survey answered by 74 Spanish construction companies based in Catalonia. Most commonly implemented practices were found to be on-site cleanliness and order, correct storage of raw materials, and prioritization of the nearest authorized waste managers. The least widespread practices were the use of a mobile crusher on site, the creation of individualized drawings for each construction site, and the dissemination of the contents of the waste management plan to all workers, to help them to meet its requirements. Waste regulations for construction and demolition, and the corresponding construction waste management facilities, were designed before the recession in the Spanish construction sector. Current waste generation rates are still below predicted levels, and the infrastructure was designed for five times more waste generation. Even so, the percentage of reused and recycled waste currently amounts to 43%. Survey respondents highlighted various instruments and measures that would make the management of construction and demolition waste more sustainable. Most of the opportunities identified by construction firms are within the scope of government and related to a combined system of bonus and penalties and the establishment of environmental awareness and training programmes for all the stakeholders. Within the scope of authorized waste managers, firms suggested improvements such as the standardization of fees, a reduction of the time until the issue of waste management certificates, a higher number of inspections, and a change in the current model of a few large construction waste management facilities. This research is useful to better understand the current status of construction and demolition waste management in construction projects and sites. Thus, the results of this research will guide policy makers and relevant stakeholders such as contractors, clients, architects and engineers to achieve the EU target of recovering 70% of construction and demolition waste in 2020. In this sense, reliable information can help governments and professional associations to set future C&D waste management regulations, training programmes and dissemination tools, inspections, etc.     

Risk management in the Federal Republic of Germany

Spectacular industrial accidents, such as the ones in Bhopal, Mexico City, and Basle, have in recent times made the risks associated with the modern chemicals industry unmistakably evident. It has been seen that effective emergency plans for the people living in the vicinity of a hazardous installation become particularly important. The situation of hazardous installations in the Federal Republic of Germany is reviewed and the three-stage safety system, which is established within the German Regulation on Major Industrial Accidents (Störfallverordnung), is described. The evaluation of the current practice shows a couple of problems, especially connected with off-site safety precautions. The disaster control teams are often ill-equipped and inadequately trained. There is a need for further establishment of detailed and specific emergency plans, especially in rural areas. It is expected that the updating of the Regulation on Major Industrial Accidents, which is at present being undertaken in the Federal Republic of Germany and the compilation of instructions for the competent authorities will contribute to better emergency plans for the protection of areas in the vicinity of hazardous industrial installations.     

A Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water and Watershed Systems

In this article we present a framework for assessing climate change impacts on water and watershed systems to support management decision-making. The framework addresses three issues complicating assessments of climate change impacts—linkages across spatial scales, linkages across temporal scales, and linkages across scientific and management disciplines. A major theme underlying the framework is that, due to current limitations in modeling capabilities, assessing and responding to climate change should be approached from the perspective of risk assessment and management rather than as a prediction problem. The framework is based generally on ecological risk assessment and similar approaches. A second theme underlying the framework is the need for close collaboration among climate scientists, scientists interested in assessing impacts, and resource managers and decision makers. A case study illustrating an application of the framework is also presented that provides a specific, practical example of how the framework was used to assess the impacts of climate change on water quality in a mid-Atlantic, U.S., watershed.     

Regional resource management techniques: The case of Colorado oil shale development

Regions under stress from rapid development require comprehensive planning and management tools, capable of identifying the pace, location and magnitude of growth and assessing social, economic and environmental impacts. Northwest Colorado, endowed with massive rich deposits of oil shale, went through a boom-bust cycle of growth during the early 1980s as US interest in synthetic fuels peaked and then rapidly declined. An innovative resource information system has been developed which has assisted the region in anticipating growth and modifying its consequences. This article reviews the organization and development of the Colorado Resource Information System (CRIS) and evaluates its role and impact in the decisionmaking process. Experience shows that regions which develop and maintain planning and information tools can have significant influence on economic development.     

Feasibility of geographic information systems approach for natural resource management

Geographic information systems (GIS) technology is altering the work environment for planning and decision-making tasks. This article is an account of a resource application that make use of the GIS technology. It provides some cost estimates and reasons for the fairly slow development toward an integrated resource data base for environmental planning and management. It tries to identify some of the constraints of such an integrated data-base approach toward environmental assessment.     

Adaptive management of natural resources--framework and issues

Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management.