The Ethics and Sustainability of Capture Fisheries and Aquaculture

The global seafood industry (capture fisheries and aquaculture) is a vital source of food, income, livelihoods, and culture. Seafood demand is steadily rising due to growth in the global human population, affluence, and per capita consumption. Seafood supply is also growing, despite declining wild fish stocks, with phenomenal advances in aquaculture, that is, the cultivation of aquatic organisms. Aquaculture supplied 42 % of the world’s fish in 2012 and is forecast to eclipse capture fisheries production by 2030. The balance between these two seafood production systems has profound implications for global food security, income distribution, and ecological sustainability. Here, a qualitative analysis of the ethics and sustainability of capture fisheries and aquaculture is presented. An innovative practical ethics approach is introduced which adapts the ethical matrix, a conceptual tool for analyzing the wellbeing, autonomy, and justice of different interest groups, and Rapfish, a rapid appraisal technique used to evaluate the sustainability of fisheries along six performance modalities, including ethics. Using case studies of global large- and small-scale capture fisheries and generalized carnivorous and omnivorous aquaculture systems, I show that human institutions and social actors interact in complex governance processes to influence seafood ethics and sustainability.     

Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining

The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of “peak minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline.The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century.     

Copper Overcapacity and the Adjustment Process

This article analyses overcapacity in the world copper industry during the 1980s and reviews projections of mine capacity to 1990 and 1996 by the research staffs of the World Bank, the International Wrought Copper Council, and the Intergovernmental Council of Copper Exporting Countries. The process of restoring demand-supply balance in the copper industry is analysed under alternative assumptions for rates of growth in world consumption and certain conclusions are reached on the implications for copper prices during the 1990s.     

A cointegration and causality analysis of copper consumption and economic growth in rich countries

The paper examines the copper consumption-economic growth nexus for 16 rich economies from the period 1966 to 2010. Various generations of panel unit root and cointegration tests are applied. Both series are found to be integrated of order one. Evidence of cointegration is found especially when controlling for breaks and long-run cross-sectional dependence. Causality is investigated using a vector error-correction mechanism (VECM) framework. At individual level, unidirectional causality running from economic growth to copper consumption is unraveled for Finland, France and UK in the long-run. Unidirectional causality is also found running from copper consumption to economic growth for Spain. Long-run bi-directionality between economic growth and copper consumption is found for Belgium, Greece, Italy, Japan and South Korea. The neutrality hypothesis holds for Australia, Austria, Canada, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and USA in the long-run. Taken as a whole, panel causality test reveals a long-run unidirectional causality running from economic growth to copper consumption.     

Some observations on copper yields and ore grades

The paper examines trends in the average copper content of mined ores over the years. It has tended to decline over the long term, but by no means evenly. US averages are not typical of global averages, at least in the past four decades. Those have been both higher, and less volatile than in the US. One reason for falling averages is a change in the type of deposit mined, with a rise in the share of relatively low grade porphyry deposits. The different nature of their deposits is reflected in marked differences in grades between the different continents. African and Australian average grades are higher than the global average, and changes in the share of Central Africa in global output have affected the global average grade. Yields are have been consistently lower in North America than elsewhere, and Latin American average grades have trended downwards, reflecting both the ageing of mines and the rising share of production from porphyry deposits. Typically the yield of mines declines over time as mining proceeds. The average copper content of ore deposits is usually below the average yield of the ore accessed in the early years of production. The initial grades of new mines have not declined over the past forty years, and there has been no perceptible tendency for the average grade of porphyry deposits brought into production to decline over time. There is no apparent correlation between average grade and deposit size, but mine operators tend to exploit economies of scale to offset low grades. The relationship between the annual percentage yields (the head grade) and the reserve grades of deposits is not static. In recent years head grades have fallen closer to reserve grades. The relationship may be affected by movements in metal prices. Although the evidence about the influence of prices is not clear-cut, it does suggest that prices and cut-off grades may be inversely related. As many ores contain other valuable metals besides copper, copper yields will sometimes be subordinated to the extraction of these other metals. Copper equivalent grades have not moved in the same way as copper grades alone.     

The USSR, China, India and the world metals industry to 2010

Remarkable changes are occurring within the economies of the USSR, China and India that are influencing mineral industry activities. These three countries account for a major share of world minerals production and consumption. Their domestic reforms may ultimately have a serious impact on the global mining industry. This paper examines the present status of the Soviet, Chinese and Indian mineral industries, and forecasts conditions to 2010. Long-term characteristics analysed include industrial production, intensity of use, consumption, mine and plant expansion and trade policy. Six metals are highlighted in the study – aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, steel and zinc.     

Copper in India: Present and future outlook

The availability of mineral resources plays an important role in India's national economy. Copper, one of the important non-ferrous metals, has various industrial uses and demand for it is increasing in India where the inventory and production of copper, though not comparable with developed countries, shows an impressive growth rate, particularly during the last decade. With an increasing rate of industrial production envisaged in future plans copper consumption is expected to rise. Logistic curves have been used to study the potential long-term production capability under the dynamic concept of reserves and resources, with curves drawn for various estimates of total available resources. The production figures shown are not final and are subject to change due to a number of factors. This approach merely provides a method for projecting trends in future production.     

基于LMDI的我国能源消费因素分解研究

经济飞速发展使我国能源消费急剧增长,能源消费与能源供给、环境污染矛盾日益突出。在分析我国能源消费和能源消费强度变化趋势的基础上,运用LMDI法将我国1996--2010年能源消费变化分解为产出效应、结构效应和强度效应,探讨产出提高、结构调整、效率提高对我国能源消费和能源强度的影响。结果显示,生产规模扩大对能源消费起到正向的拉动作用,结构调整对缓解能源消费增长还有较大的上升空间,能源强度对能源消费的抑制效应自“十一五”期间起作用逐步显现。     

Copper recycling and scrap availability

According to existing estimates, available old copper scrap has more than tripled over the past 40 years. Secondary production (that is, copper produced from recycling old scrap), however, has only doubled. Indeed, over the past 10 years, while copper consumption and primary production have continued to expand briskly, while available old scrap has increased by over 35%, secondary production has actually stagnated.For a world concerned with sustainable development and the quality of the earth's environment, this performance is disappointing and in need of explanation. Other things being equal, one would expect the amount of recycling to increase with the availability of scrap, as many econometric models of the world copper market developed over the past several decades explicitly assume.The key to understanding sluggish growth in secondary production, this paper argues, is distinguishing carefully between (1) the flow of old scrap that arrives each year from products reaching the end of their useful lives during the year and (2) the available stock of old scrap that was not recycled during earlier years presumably because it was too costly to do so. Using an econometric model, the paper shows that old scrap stocks, which have contributed most of the increase in available old copper scrap over the years, have a very modest impact on secondary production. Old scrap flows have a much greater effect, but they account for only about 4% of the available old scrap for any given year.     

中国区域粮食生产与消费中的虚拟耕地平衡研究

从不同尺度分析了我国2008年粮食生产、消费中的虚拟耕地含量及虚拟耕地平衡空间分布规律.主要结论为:①2008年粮食生产虚拟耕地北方比南方多32396.8×107m2,人均粮食生产虚拟耕地量北方远远高于全国平均水平和南方,因粮食生产形成较为典型的虚拟耕地“北土南调”现象.②2008年粮食消费虚拟耕地北方比南方多6851.62×107m2.③从粮食生产与消费的虚拟耕地平衡空间分布规律来看,2008年虚拟耕地调出区全部位于我国北方地区,集中分布在两大地带:一是由黑龙江、吉林、内蒙古、新疆、宁夏5省(区)组成的我国北方边境沿线地带,二是由河南、安徽组成的中部区;调入区则集中在由东部沿海地区、中部省份和西部内陆省份组成的环状地带.     

Assessing Major Ecosystem Types and the Challenge of Sustainability in Turkey

In recent years, Turkey has experienced rapid economic and population growth coupled with both an equally rapid increase in energy consumption and a vast disparity in welfare between socioeconomic groups and regions. In turn, these pressures have accelerated the destruction of productive, assimilative, and regenerative capacities of the ecosystems, which are essential for the well-being of the people and the economy. This paper describes the structure and function of major ecosystem types in Turkey and discusses the underlying causes of environmental degradation in the framework of economy, energy, environment, and ethics. From a national perspective, this paper suggests three sustainability-based policies necessary for Turkey's long-term interests that balance economic, environmental, and energy goals: (1) decoupling economic growth from energy consumption growth through the development of energy-efficient and renewable energy technologies; (2) linking economic efficiency and distributive justice of wealth and power through distributive and participatory public policies; and (3) integrating the economic and ecological systems through the internalization of externalities and ecosystem rehabilitation.     

Long-term projections of non-fuel minerals: We were wrong,but why?

This article revisits global projections made in 1981 of eight metallic and fertilizer minerals for the year 2000. The principal objectives of the present study are to quantify the differences between the projected and observed levels of consumption for the year 2000 for eight of the 26 non-fuel minerals covered in the earlier study, and, then, to attempt to attribute these (often) large differences to the major determinants of minerals demand: income, technological, regulatory and other public policy changes, and changes in the recycling rates of the metallic minerals. The eight minerals are: aluminum, copper, iron, mercury, nickel, phosphate rock, potash and tin.This follow-up study begins with a discussion of the need for long-term projections of minerals. This section also includes a summary of the major determinants of the long-term demand for, and supply of, minerals, and a review of some of the earlier assessments of mineral needs and availability.Section 3 of the article begins with a short summary of the World Input–Output Model, the main methodological tool used in the earlier study that was developed by Prof. Wassily Leontief, the 1973 Nobel laureate in economics, and the way in which non-fuel minerals were represented in that system. This section also provides a summary of other global modeling efforts of non-fuel minerals that were carried out at a similar point in time for a similar interval.Section 4 presents the actual population, GDP and per capita GDP changes over the 1970–2000 time interval compared with the projected rates for these important determinants of mineral use, along with the projected and observed growth rates of minerals consumption for the eight non-fuel minerals included in this study. When the projections are compared to the observed global consumption rates for the year 2000, the differences range from +43% for nickel to +229% for potash.Section 5 discusses the apparent reasons for the differences between the projected and observed global consumption rates of these non-fuel minerals that include differences in the growth of GDP and GDP per capita, changes in recycling rates (for the metallic minerals), technological change, and regulatory or other public policy changes that have affected mineral use over the 30-year-interval ending in 2000.In light of the data and analysis presented in Sections sec# and sec#, the article concludes with some remarks, made almost a quarter of a century ago, by Prof. Leontief on the need and justification for long-term projections.     

LONG-TERM COPPER PRODUCTION OPTIONS OF THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

After petroleum, copper is the most important foreign exchange earner of the developing countries. Supply of copper from developing nations is heavily concentrated in six countries. The production strategies of these countries can, therefore, have a significant impact on world copper trends as well as on their own copper earnings. The author, former Chief Economist of CIPEC, examines the implications of two alternative growth paths for long-term copper production in these countries.     

Formulation of resource depletion index

A resource depletion index can serve as a quantitative tool to evaluate the level of depletion for natural resources. This study introduces two types of resource depletion indices, the global resource depletion index and the local resource depletion index. Global resource depletion index mainly concerns global reserves and the annual consumption rate of these resources. The local resource depletion index not only considers global reserves and their annual consumption rate, but also considers the local factors such as local reserves, local recycling rates, and local resource import characteristics. This study considers the local resource characteristics of Taiwan and develops calculations for local resource depletion indexes for the resources of cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, copper, aluminum, lead and zinc.     

Copper and copper alloys in the UK : Consumption and losses, 1920–1970

The authors consider consumption of copper in the UK using data from 1920 to 1970. They draw up an overall balance sheet which, it is hoped, provides a firm foundation on which to base the total availability of copper and against which could be balanced the scrap which was recycled.     

Life Cycle Considerations for Improving Sustainability Assessments in Seafood Awareness Campaigns

It is widely accepted that improving the sustainability of seafood production requires efforts to reverse declines in global fisheries due to overfishing and to reduce the impacts to host ecosystems from fishing and aquaculture production technologies. Reflective of on-going dialogue amongst participants in an international research project applying Life Cycle Assessment to better understand and manage global salmon production systems, we argue here that such efforts must also address the wider range of biophysical, ecological, and socioeconomic impacts stemming from the material and energetic throughput associated with these industries. This is of particular relevance given the interconnectivity of global environmental change, ocean health, and the viability of seafood production in both fisheries and aquaculture. Although the growing popularity of numerous ecolabeling, certification, and consumer education programs may be making headway in influencing Western consumer perceptions of the relative sustainability of alternative seafood products, we also posit that the efficacy of these initiatives in furthering sustainability objectives is compromised by the use of incomplete criteria. An emerging body of Life Cycle Assessment research of fisheries and aquaculture provides valuable insights into the biophysical dimensions of environmental performance in alternative seafood production and consumption systems, and should be used to inform a more holistic approach to labeling, certifying, and educating for sustainability in seafood production. More research, however, must be undertaken to develop novel techniques for incorporating other critical dimensions, in particular, socioeconomic considerations, into our sustainability decision-making.     

Sustainable consumption and production: Trends, challenges and options for the Asia-Pacific region

This paper highlights current trends in consumption and production patterns in Asian developing countries and emerging economies. It describes the main challenges and opportunities for Asian countries making the transition towards sustainable consumption and production patterns. The main challenge for Asian economies is to address the unsustainable consumption patterns of urban consumers, which entails a policy shift from the current focus on pollution and inefficient industrial production. In view of future consumption trends and the global convergence of consumption patterns, the characteristics of the emerging 'global consumer class' are examined, with particular focus on urban ecological footprints and carbon emissions. Furthermore, the difference between urban and rural consumption is discussed, together with opportunities for low-carbon urban development in the megacities of Asian developing countries. To conclude, the paper presents an overview of current policy measures taken in Asian countries to green economic development and realise sustainable consumption and production patterns.     

A differentiated approach for sustainable consumption and production policies

The importance of sustainable consumption and production in the international agenda has been growing, both because of unsustainable patterns of consumption and production in industrialized countries and because it appears to be a means for meeting the essential needs of developing countries. Adapting Fernand Braudel's model of the three layers of the economy (everyday life, market economy and global capitalism) to the current situation, this paper advocates for differentiated policies, which cannot be limited to those based on the dominant model of a rational legal system dealing with rational consumers. The cultural and collective dimensions of consumption, the social role of conspicuous consumption, the consumption of ecological services outside formal markets, the diversity of approaches to knowledge and rationality, all plead for an overarching approach and diversified policy tools. The paper underlines the need for global regulation processes which involve all stakeholders by focusing on two examples: the international task force on sustainable tourism, and the ISO 26000 standard on social responsibility.     

Energy balance and global warming potential of corn straw-based bioethanol in China from a life cycle perspective

As the second largest corn producer in this world, China has abundant corn straw resources. The study assessed the energy balance and global warming potential of corn straw-based bioethanol production and utilization in China from a life cycle perspective. The results revealed that bioethanol used as gasoline and diesel blend fuel could reduce global warming potential by 10%–97% and 4%–96%, respectively, as compared to gasoline and diesel for transport. The total global warming potential, net global warming potential, net energy, and Net Energy Ratio per MJ ethanol generated from corn straw-based bioethanol system are estimated to be 0.20 kg CO₂-eq, 0.012 kg CO₂-eq, 0.60 MJ, and 1.87, respectively. By using sensitivity analysis, we found that the collected coefficient and compressing density of straw have a more obvious influence on energy balance; transportation distance has a more obvious influence on global warming potential emission factor. The by-products may be utilized as fertilizer, animal feed, cement replacement, or high-value lignin chemicals, which make a contribution to offsetting 0.28 MJ per MJ ethanol of energy consumption.     

The copper and aluminum industries: A review of structural changes

In this article the evolution of the aluminium and copper industries is examined, with a view to deriving policy options open to Third World copper producers, which face a declining rate in the growth of consumption. Market structure, company behaviour and performance are analysed for both industries. The impact of energy and general economic crisis in copper and aluminium industries is assessed and market concentration trends are discussed. We conclude that Third World copper producers must change their basic orientation and become seriously involved in market development.