Hidden demographic impacts of fishing and environmental drivers of fecundity in a sea turtle population

Fisheries bycatch is a critical threat to sea turtle populations worldwide, particularly because turtles are vulnerable to multiple gear types. The Canary Current is an intensely fished region, yet there has been no demographic assessment integrating bycatch and population management information of the globally significant Cabo Verde loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) population. Using Boa Vista island (Eastern Cabo Verde) subpopulation data from capture–recapture and nest monitoring (2013–2019), we evaluated population viability and estimated regional bycatch rates (2016–2020) in longline, trawl, purse-seine, and artisanal fisheries. We further evaluated current nesting trends in the context of bycatch estimates, existing hatchery conservation measures, and environmental (net primary productivity) variability in turtle foraging grounds. We projected that current bycatch mortality rates would lead to the near extinction of the Boa Vista subpopulation. Bycatch reduction in longline fisheries and all fisheries combined would increase finite population growth rate by 1.76% and 1.95%, respectively. Hatchery conservation increased hatchling production and reduced extinction risk, but alone it could not achieve population growth. Short-term increases in nest counts (2013–2021), putatively driven by temporary increases in net primary productivity, may be masking ongoing long-term population declines. When fecundity was linked to net primary productivity, our hindcast models simultaneously predicted these opposing long-term and short-term trends. Consequently, our results showed conservation management must diversify from land-based management. The masking effect we found has broad-reaching implications for monitoring sea turtle populations worldwide, demonstrating the importance of directly estimating adult survival and that nest counts might inadequately reflect underlying population trends.     

Wood Thrush Populations Are Not All Sinks in the Agricultural Midwestern United States

Abstract: Conservation strategies for forest-breeding, Neotropical migratory birds focus on the identification and preservation of source habitats. In sources, populations maintain relatively high levels of reproductive success, whereas in sinks, reproductive success is consistently below net replacement rate. In agricultural regions of the midwestern United States, forest patches of various sizes appear to act as sinks for Neotropical migrants. In 1994–1996 I monitored Wood Thrush (   Hylocichla mustelina ) nests in four forest patches in an agricultural landscape in northern Indiana. Given the prevailing estimates of adult and juvenile survival, I report productivity data that show substantial annual variation and that are sufficient to suggest the maintenance of temporal sources. Indeed, some Wood Thrush populations may act as source habitats in regions with relatively high levels of Brown-headed Cowbird (   Molothrys ater ) parasitism and nest predation because pairs produce multiple clutches and have the ability to fledge cowbirds and their own young from parasitized nests. My results and those from other studies of Wood Thrushes in landscapes with fragmented forests illustrate the variable ways in which source-sink dynamics are affected by habitat fragmentation. In some agricultural regions, populations in small forest patches may act as sources for Wood Thrushes and may be a legitimate focus of conservation efforts aimed at some migratory songbirds.     

Temporal, spatial, and body size effects on growth rates of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the Northwest Atlantic

In response to a call from the US National Research Council for research programs to combine their data to improve sea turtle population assessments, we analyzed somatic growth data for Northwest Atlantic (NWA) loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) from 10 research programs. We assessed growth dynamics over wide ranges of geography (9–33°N latitude), time (1978–2012), and body size (35.4–103.3 cm carapace length). Generalized additive models revealed significant spatial and temporal variation in growth rates and a significant decline in growth rates with increasing body size. Growth was more rapid in waters south of the USA (<24°N) than in USA waters. Growth dynamics in southern waters in the NWA need more study because sample size was small. Within USA waters, the significant spatial effect in growth rates of immature loggerheads did not exhibit a consistent latitudinal trend. Growth rates declined significantly from 1997 through 2007 and then leveled off or increased. During this same interval, annual nest counts in Florida declined by 43 % (Witherington et al. in Ecol Appl 19:30–54, 2009) before rebounding. Whether these simultaneous declines reflect responses in productivity to a common environmental change should be explored to determine whether somatic growth rates can help interpret population trends based on annual counts of nests or nesting females. Because of the significant spatial and temporal variation in growth rates, population models of NWA loggerheads should avoid employing growth data from restricted spatial or temporal coverage to calculate demographic metrics such as age at sexual maturity.     

Modeling the Effects of Trophy Selection and Environmental Disturbance on a Simulated Population of African Lions

Abstract:  Tanzania is a premier destination for trophy hunting of African lions (Panthera leo) and is home to the most extensive long-term study of unhunted lions. Thus, it provides a unique opportunity to apply data from a long-term field study to a conservation dilemma: How can a trophy-hunted species whose reproductive success is closely tied to social stability be harvested sustainably? We used an individually based, spatially explicit, stochastic model, parameterized with nearly 40 years of behavioral and demographic data on lions in the Serengeti, to examine the separate effects of trophy selection and environmental disturbance on the viability of a simulated lion population in response to annual harvesting. Female population size was sensitive to the harvesting of young males (≥3 years), whereas hunting represented a relatively trivial threat to population viability when the harvest was restricted to mature males (≥6 years). Overall model performance was robust to environmental disturbance and to errors in age assessment based on nose coloration as an index used to age potential trophies. Introducing an environmental disturbance did not eliminate the capacity to maintain a viable breeding population when harvesting only older males, and initially depleted populations recovered within 15–25 years after the disturbance to levels comparable to hunted populations that did not experience a catastrophic event. These results are consistent with empirical observations of lion resilience to environmental stochasticity .     

Albatross populations in peril: a population trajectory for black-browed albatrosses at south Georgia.

Simulation modeling was used to reconstruct Black-browed Albatross (Diomedea melanophris) population trends. Close approximations to observed data were accomplished by annually varying survival rates, reproductive success, and probabilities of returning to breed given success in previous years. The temporal shift in annual values coincided with the start of longline fishing at South Georgia and potential changes in krill abundance. We used 23 years of demographic data from long-term studies of a breeding colony of this species at Bird Island, South Georgia, to validate our model. When we used annual parameter estimates for survival, reproductive success, and probabilities of returning to breed given success in previous years, our model trajectory closely followed the observed changes in breeding population size over time. Population growth rate was below replacement (lambda < 1) in most years and was most sensitive to changes in adult survival. This supports the recent IUCN uplisting of this species from "Vulnerable" to "Endangered." Comparison of pre-1988 and post-1988 demography (before and after the inception of a longline fishery in the breeding area) reveals a decrease in lambda from 0.963 to 0.910. A life table response experiment (LTRE) showed that this decline in lambda was caused mostly by declines in survival of adults. If 1988-1998 demographic rates are maintained, the model predicts a 98% chance of a population of fewer than 25 pairs within 78 years. For this population to recover to a status under which it could be "delisted," a 10% increase in survival of all age classes would be needed.     

Bayesian estimation of age-specific bird nest survival rates with categorical covariates

The populations of many North American landbirds are showing signs of declining. Gathering information on breeding productivity allows critical assessment of population performance and helps identify good habitat-management practices. He (Biometrics (2003) 59 962–973) proposed a Bayesian model to estimate the age-specific nest survival rates. The model allows irregular visiting schedule under the assumption that the observed nests have homogeneous nest survival. Because nest survival studies are often conducted in different sites and time periods, it is not realistic to assume homogeneous nest survival. In this paper, we extend He’s model by incorporating these factors as categorical covariates. The simulation results show that the Bayesian hierarchical model can produce satisfactory estimates on nest survival and capture different factor effects. Finally the model is applied to a Missouri red-winged blackbird data set.     

A sensitivity analysis of an ecosystem model of estuarine carbon flow

The North Inlet Marsh-Estuarine System Model (NIMES) is a 19-compartment real-time deterministic ecosystem simulation model of intrasystem carbon flow and exchange between an estuary and adjacent coastal water. A complete sensitivity analysis of this model with regard to POM, DOM and nekton annual exchange and annual system net productivity was completed and the functional relationship between these system behaviors and the perturbed parameters were determined by regression techniques. Simulated POM annual exchange between the estuary and the sea was largely controlled by offshore POM concentration, water column respiration and the gross productivity of the marsh and water column flora. Simulated DOM annual estuarine-oceanic exchange was most sensitive to perturbations in the gross productivity and biomass changes in marsh flora and water column microbial DOM uptake. Simulated nekton exchange reflected a sensitivity to migratory behavior and subtidal benthic biomass changes. System annual net productivity as simulated by the model showed a high sensitivity to all model processes which affected component primary production and respiration. From this sensitivity analysis, a scheme is developed to evaluate research needs for further model development for the North Inlet ecosystem.     

Fitting probability models to population dynamics data

Methods for modeling population dynamics in probability using the generalized point process approach are developed. The life history of these populations is such that seasonal reproduction occurs during a short time. Several models are developed and analyzed. Data about two species: colonial spiders (Stegodyphus dumicola) and a migratory bird (wood thrush, Hylocichla mustelina) are used to estimate model parameters with appropriate log maximum likelihood functions. For the spiders, the model is fitted to provide evolutionary feasible colony size based on maximum likelihood estimates of fecundity and survival data. For the migratory bird species, a maximum likelihood estimates are derived for the fecundity and survival rates of young and adult birds and immigration rate. The presented approach allows computation of quantities of interest such as probability of extinction and average time to extinction.     

Are Declines in North American Insectivorous Songbirds Due to Causes on the Breeding Range?

Previous studies have reported a recent decline in breeding populations of migratory songbirds in eastern and central North America. Several explanations have been suggested: deforestation on the wintering grounds in the tropics and habitat loss, increased predation pressure, and increased cowbirds parasitism on the breeding range. We used these factors to assign 47 species of insectivorous passerines to groups with contrasting vulnerability, and then used the North America Breeding Bird Survey to analyze population trends in these groups on a large continental scale. Variables indexing susceptibility to predation on the breeding ground were most strongly correlated with population trends form 1968 to 1987. During the period from 1978 to 1987, migratory status was also significantly associated with population trends long-distance migrants to the neotropics exhibited a small, nonsignificant decreasing trend, whereas residents and short-distance migrants increased strongly. During the same time period, the group of species with low nest location, open nest, and high cowbird parasitism declined significantly. Although it is difficult to separate the effects of multiple factors, our analyses suggest that predation on the breeding ground in North America has played a larger role in the decline of migratory songbirds than deforestation on the wintering grounds in the tropics.     

The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.     

Use of fecundity measured directly throughout the breeding season to test a source-sink demographic model

Populations of landbirds (bird species that occupy terrestrial habitats for most of their life cycle) are declining throughout North America (north of Mexico) and Europe, yet little is known about how demography is driving this trend. A recent model of 5 geographically separated populations of Cerulean Warblers (Dendroica cerulea) that was based on within-season sampling of nest survival and fledgling success shows that all populations are sinks (annual reproduction is consistently less than annual adult mortality). I tested this indirect model by directly measuring fecundity (number of female fledglings/female) during the breeding season for 2 years in a Cerulean Warbler population occupying a mature forest in southwestern Michigan (U.S.A.) I determined territories of male birds on the basis of male plumage characters and phases of the nesting cycle (2007) and on uniquely color-banded males (2008). I transferred locations of identified males to topographic maps. I counted all fledglings in territories from May to July each year. The model I tested may apply only to single-brooded species; therefore, I searched the literature to estimate the percentage of single-brooded species in North America. The breeding season of Cerulean Warblers was short- nearly all nests were initiated from mid-May to late June. Nest predation and brood parasitism were primary and rare causes of nest failure, respectively. Significantly fewer Cerulean Warblers fledged from parasitized than from nonparasitized nests. Fledgling survival required to maintain the population size was well above previously published values for Neotropical migrants. Single-brooded species comprise 62% of North American breeding bird species for which the number of broods per year is known; I believe my results may apply to these species. The consistency between identification of populations as sources or sinks on the basis of either model estimates or direct measurements suggests that a demographic model relying on within-season sampling of fecundity is adequate to determine population status of single-brooded avian populations. In addition, on the basis of results of previous studies, annual adult survival rate of the Cerulean Warbler is typical of parulid warblers that are not declining. Thus, low fecundity, here determined with different quantitative methods, can drive status of landbird species with high-observed survival.     

Nest distribution affects behaviour and mating success in a marine fish

The distribution of breeding resources, such as nest sites, can have a pronounced impact on a population by affecting the proportion of individuals that succeed to breed and hence, the variation in reproductive success. Aggregation of important resources can lead to resource monopolisation by a limited number of individuals and thus affect the intensity of sexual selection. In this study, we tested, by contrasting two experimental treatments (dispersed vs. aggregated), how nest distribution affects: (1) mating behaviour, (2) male nest occupation and mating success, and (3) reproductive success and the opportunity for selection. We used the two-spotted goby (Gobiusculus flavescens), a small marine fish with a resource-based mating system, as our model species. When nests were aggregated, a larger proportion of the males behaved aggressively, fewer males succeeded in occupying a nest, fewer males became mated, and those males that mated received fewer eggs from spawning females. These effects resulted in a higher variance in reproductive success and hence, a higher opportunity for selection (I _rs ), in the aggregated treatment. We suggest that the results are a direct consequence of males defending a territory around their nest, preventing competitively inferior males from breeding. However, we found no significant selection differentials for body length or condition of males in either treatment. Our results support the hypothesis that aggregation of essential resources like nests promotes resource monopolisation. In species facing highly clumped nesting resources in the wild, monopolisation may negatively impact population productivity but could lead to strong selection on traits that promote male competitive ability.     

Juvenile Survival in a Population of Neotropical Migrant Birds

Determination of population productivity of Neotropical migrant birds and assessment of breeding habitat quality have been based on population densities and nesting success. Data on juvenile survival improve our estimates of population productivity, provide information on factors during the post-fledging period that affect this productivity and, with comparative data, enable us to better assess breeding habitat quality. We present the first estimate of post-fledging juvenile survival in a population of Neotropical migrant birds. We studied post-fledging survival in a population of Wood Thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina) in southern Missouri, (U.S.) an area hypothesized to contain source populations. Nesting success during our study period was 0.266, and individual survival within the nest was 0.245. Post-fledging survival during the first 8 weeks after fledging was 0.423. Survival varied significantly between post-fledging weekly age classes, with survival of weeks 1, 2, 3, and 4 through 8 being 0.716, 0.930, 0.637, and 1.00, respectively. Probability of predation after fledging was 0.506. Probability of mortality by other causes was 0.071. Probability of predation varied by weekly age class and may have been related to behaviors occurring at different developmental stages. Post-fledging survival was not correlated with nestling mass and did not change throughout the course of the breeding season. Analysis of the source/sink status of the population based on our estimates of nesting success and post-fledging survival indicates that young were being produced below replacement levels during our study period. Large-scale management decisions should take into account potential fluctuations in the productivity of Neotropical migrant populations over time. Data on post-fledging juvenile survival are needed from other populations of Neotropical migrant birds to more accurately assess differential productivity between populations and better assess breeding habitat quality.     

Predicting barrier passage and habitat suitability for migratory fish species

Fish migrate to spawn, feed, seek refuge from predators, and escape harmful environmental conditions. The success of upstream migration is limited by the presence of barriers that can impede the passage of fish. We used a spatially explicit modeling strategy to examine the effects of barriers on passage for 21 native and non-native migratory fish species and the amount of suitable habitat blocked for each species. Spatially derived physical parameter estimates and literature based fish capabilities and tolerances were used to predict fish passage success and habitat suitability. Both the fish passage and the habitat suitability models accurately predicted fish presence above barriers for most common, non-stocked species. The fish passage model predicted that barriers greater than or equal to 6 m block all migratory species. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) was expected to be blocked the least. The habitat suitability model predicted that low gradient streams with intact habitat quality were likely to support the highest number of fish species. The fish passage and habitat suitability models were intended to be used by environmental managers as strategy development tools to prioritize candidate dams for field assessment and make decisions regarding the management of migratory fish populations.     

An individual-based model to study the reproduction of egg bearing copepods: Application to Eurytemora affinis (Copepoda Calanoida) from the Seine estuary,France

Limited empirical studies have elucidated the daily egg production and associated reproductive processes of egg bearing copepod. Herein, we present an individual-based model which constitutes a realistic representation of the reproduction in egg bearing copepods. The model has been parameterized using an extensive set of experimental data obtained from the literature and from the laboratory and field experiments on the estuarine copepod Eurytemora affinis. The proposed model takes into account the adult female longevity, the clutch size and interclutch duration, which is a function of egg maturation time and latency time required by the female after egg hatching to produce a new clutch. The embryonic development time and hatching success are also taken into account. The effect of temperature on the means and variances of above-mentioned reproductive parameters has been also incorporated. A multi agent system based generic platform “Mobidyc” has been used to generate and calibrate the model. The model demonstrates the reproductive parameters of females of E. affinis which is validated through individual based experiments. Temperature specific simulations provide a dynamical explanation of temperature effect on the cumulative egg production. The daily survival principally affects the number of clutches produced per female during its life span. The results obtained in the present study by combining temperature and survival effects reveal the relatively greater importance of the first factor on the daily egg production of egg-carrying copepods. The present model is generic and hence easily applicable to other animals with comparable reproductive strategy.     

Spatial and temporal hydrodynamic and water quality modeling analysis of a large reservoir on the South Carolina (USA) coastal plain

Two-dimensional, 31-segment, 61-channel hydrodynamic and water quality models of Lake Marion (surface area 330.7 km²; volume 1548.3×10⁶ m³) were developed using the WASP5 modeling system. Field data from 1985 to 1990 were used to parameterize the models. Phytoplankton kinetic rates and constants were obtained from a related in situ study; others from modeling literature. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated to estimates of daily lake volume; the water quality model was calibrated for ammonia, nitrate, ortho-phosphate, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a, biochemical oxygen demand, organic nitrogen, and organic phosphorus. Water quality calibration suggested the model characterized phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics quite well. The model was validated (Kolmogorov–Smirnov two-sample goodness-of-fit test at P<0.05) by reparameterizing the nutrient loading functions using an independent set of field data. The models identified several factors that may contribute to the spatial variability previously reported from other research in the reservoir, despite the superficial absence of complex structure. Sensitivity analysis of the phytoplankton kinetic rates suggest that study site-specific estimates were important for obtaining model fit to field data. Sediment sources of ammonia (10–60 mg m⁻² day⁻¹) and phosphate (1–6 mg m⁻² day⁻¹) were important to achieve model calibration, especially during periods of high temperatures and low dissolved oxygen. This sediment flux accounted for 78% (nitrogen) and 50% (phosphorus) of the annual load. Spatial and temporal variability in the lake, reflected in the calibrated and validated models, suggest that ecological factors that influence phytoplankton productivity and nutrient dynamics are different in various parts of the lake. The WASP5 model as implemented here does not fully accommodate the ecological variability in Lake Marion due to model constraints on the specification of rate constants. This level of spatial detail may not be appropriate for an operational reservoir model, but as a research tool the models are both versatile and useful.     

Longshore sediment transport in the surf zone based on different formulae: a case study along the central west coast of India

Understanding longshore sediment transport (LST) is a prerequisite for designing an effective coastal zone management strategy. The present study estimates the LST along the central west coast of India based on four bulk LST formulae: (1) the Coastal Engineering Research Center (CERC) formula, (2) the Walton and Bruno formula, (3) the Kamphuis formula and (4) the Komar formula. The Delft3D–wave module is used for estimating nearshore waves with measured directional wave data at a water depth of 9 m as the input parameter. Wave data for the validation of the nearshore wave transformation model is measured using the InterOcean S4DW wave gauge. The model results show that waves approach from the south 90 % of the time in a year and that they generate predominantly northerly longshore currents. Upon comparison with the measured data, the findings show that the estimates based on the Kamphuis formula agree with the field data. A high ratio (~1) of the monthly net and gross transport rates indicates that the LST is dominating in one direction in all months except February and July. The study shows that a slight change in the angle of the wave approach during the Asian summer monsoon period (JJAS) can significantly alter the direction and magnitude of the LST. Inter-annual variations in the LST based on the data for 2009 and 2011 show that the variations in the annual net and gross LST rates in different years are less than 7 %.     

Fragmention by agriculture influences reproductive success of birds in a shrubsteppe landscape.

Shrubsteppe communities are among the most imperiled ecosystems in North America as a result of conversion to agriculture and other anthropogenic changes. In the Intermountain West of the United States, these communities support a unique avifauna, including several species that are declining and numerous others that are of conservation concern. Extensive research in the eastern and central United States and in Scandinavia suggests that fragmentation of formerly continuous forests and grasslands adversely affects reproductive success of birds, yet little is known of the potential effects on avian communities in Western shrublands. I used multi-model inference to evaluate the potential effects of local and landscape variables on nest predation and brood parasitism, and behavioral observations of color-banded birds to evaluate the potential effects of habitat fragmentation on seasonal reproductive success of passerines in the shrubsteppe of eastern Washington State, USA. Reproductive success of shrubsteppe-obligate passerines was lower in landscapes fragmented by agriculture than in continuous shrubsteppe landscapes. Daily survival rates for nests of Brewer's Sparrows (Spizella breweri; n=496) and Sage Thrashers (Oreoscoptes montanus; n=128) were lower in fragmented landscapes, and seasonal reproductive success (percentage of pairs fledging young) of Sage Sparrows (Amphispiza belli; n=146) and Brewer's Sparrows (n=59) was lower in fragmented landscapes. Rates of parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) overall were low (4%) but were significantly greater in fragmented landscapes for Brewer's Sparrows, and parasitism resulted in fewer young fledged from successful nests. Simple models of population growth using landscape-specific fecundity and estimates of adult survival derived from return rates of banded male Sage Sparrows and Brewer's Sparrows suggest that fragmented shrubsteppe in Washington may be acting as a population sink for some species. Immediate conservation needs include halting further fragmentation of shrubsteppe, restoring low-productivity agricultural lands and annual grasslands to shrubsteppe where possible, and convincing the public of the intrinsic value of these imperiled ecosystems.     

Survival and productivity benefits to social nesting in the sweat bee <Emphasis Type="Italic">Megalopta genalis</Emphasis> (Hymenoptera: Halictidae)

Facultatively solitary and eusocial species allow for direct tests of the benefits of group living. We used the facultatively social sweat bee Megalopta genalis to test several benefits of group living. We surveyed natural nests modified for observation in the field weekly for 5 weeks in 2003. First, we demonstrate that social and solitary nesting are alternative behaviors, rather than different points on one developmental trajectory. Next, we show that solitary nests suffered significantly higher rates of nest failure than did social nests. Nest failure apparently resulted from solitary foundress mortality and subsequent brood orphanage. Social nests had significantly higher productivity, measured as new brood cells provisioned during the study, than did solitary nests. After accounting for nest failures, per capita productivity did not change with group size. Our results support key predictions of Assured Fitness Return models, suggesting such indirect fitness benefits favor eusocial nesting in M. genalis. We compared field collections of natural nests to our observation nest data to show that without accounting for nest failures, M. genalis appear to suffer a per capita productivity decrease with increasing group size. Calculating per capita productivity from collected nests without accounting for the differential probabilities of survival across group sizes leads to an overestimate of solitary nest productivity.     

Life history correlates of alternative migratory strategies in American Dippers

Partial migration is thought to be a critical step in the evolution of avian migration, but data on the life history correlates of alternative migratory strategies are extremely limited. We have studied a partially migratory population of American Dippers since 1999. This population is composed of sedentary individuals (residents) that maintain the same territory year round and altitudinal migrants that share winter grounds with residents, but move to higher elevations to breed. We used seven years of data on individually marked birds to (1) determine if individuals consistently use the same migratory strategy, (2) determine if offspring have the same strategy as their parents, and (3) estimate reproductive and survival rates of the two migratory strategies. We evaluate hypotheses for the persistence of partial migration and discuss their implication for the evolution of migration in sedentary populations. Individual American Dippers rarely switched migratory strategy (4/169 monitored more than one year). An individual's strategy, however, was not always that of its parents, indicating that, while migratory behavior may have a genetic component, environmental or social conditions probably influence the migratory strategy that an individual adopts. Sedentary dippers consistently had higher annual productivity (approximately 1.4 more fledglings/year) than migratory dippers, but mark-recapture models suggested that migratory dippers may have slightly higher survival than residents (approximately 3.4%). Migrants were estimated to have lower lifetime reproductive success than residents because their higher survival was insufficient to offset their lower productivity. Our data suggest that alternative migratory strategies in American Dippers are unlikely to be a fixed genetic dimorphism that persists because the two strategies have equal fitness, or because the relative fitness of the two strategies fluctuates over time. Migratory strategies in American Dippers are more likely to be condition dependent, and the two strategies persist because migrants "make the best of a bad job" by moving to higher elevations to breed. Because migrants obtained no fitness benefits by moving to seasonal breeding territories, our data are consistent with the hypothesis that migration could evolve in sedentary populations if competition for limited resources forces some individuals to seek breeding opportunities outside their initial range.