Using the cumulative availability curve to assess the threat of mineral depletion: The case of lithium

The cumulative availability curve shows the quantities of a mineral commodity that can be recovered under current conditions from existing resources at various prices. The future availability of a mineral commodity depends on the shape of its cumulative availability curve (determined by geologic considerations, such as the nature and incidence of the available mineral deposits), the speed at which society moves up the curve (determined by future demand and the extent to which this demand is satisfied by recycling), and shifts in the curve (determined by cost-reducing technological change and other factors). While the shape of the curve for any given mineral commodity may or may not be known, it is knowable since the geologic processes responsible for the curve's shape took place many years ago. In contrast, the factors governing how fast society moves up the curve and how the curve shifts over time are not only unknown but also unknowable.Using lithium as an example, this article shows that knowledge about the shape of the cumulative availability curve can by itself provide useful insights for some mineral commodities regarding the potential future threat of shortages due to depletion. Despite the inherent uncertainties surrounding the future growth in lithium demand as well as the uncertainties regarding the future cost-reducing effects of new production technologies, the shape of the lithium cumulative availability curve indicates that depletion is not likely to pose a serious problem over the rest of this century and well beyond.     

The nickel industry: Continued response to a changing environment

The world nickel market has slowly evolved from domination by the International Nickel Company (Inco) into a competitive structure. Presently, the nickel industry is characterized by product surpluses and low prices. The change in structure and the current state of the industry has resulted from the price strategy followed by the leading nickel producers, a general decline in market development expenditures, certain characteristics of developing nickel producing capacity and several unforeseen events. Examination of these factors can help in developing policy options aimed at improving the future of the industry.     

Implications for the carrying capacity of lithium reserve in China

China is a major supplier of rechargeable lithium batteries for the world's consumer electronics (CE) and electric vehicles (EV). Consequently, China's domestic lithium resources are being rapidly depleted, and the development of the CE and EV industries will be vulnerable to the carrying capacity of China's lithium reserves. Here we find that lithium demand in China will increase significantly due to the continuing growth of demand for CE and the briskly emerging market for EV, resulting in a short carrying duration of lithium, even with full recycling of end-of-life lithium products. With these applications increasing at an annual rate of 7%, the carrying duration of lithium reserves will oblige the end-of-life products recycling with a 90% rate. To sustain the lithium industry, one approach would be to develop the collection system and recycling technology of lithium-containing waste for closed-loop lithium recycling, and other future endeavors should include developing the low-lithium battery and optimizing lithium industrial structure.     

The Worldwide Availability of Gold

This paper summarizes Bureau of Mines research relating to the state of the world gold industry. The authors discuss the world gold industry structure, demonstrated gold resources, current production, and the long-term cost and availability of potential future gold production.
The long-term cost and availability of primary gold production from 111 significant producing mines and developing deposits in 13 market economy countries (MECs) is evaluated. Total recoverable gold available (as of January 1984) from the evaluated mines and deposits is estimated at 819 million troy ounces. The Republic of South Africa is estimated to account for 87% of total recoverable gold. The USA and Canada account for 4% and 4.5% of the total, respectively. Eighty-three per cent of total recoverable gold is available at a constant 1984 break-even price of $400 per ounce, and 70% is available at $300 per ounce. South Africa accounts for 90% of the gold available at $400 per ounce or less. Gold resources in the Soviet Union and China are discussed but not evaluated for costs of production. Some conclusions of the analyses are that South Africa should remain the largest world producer until the year 2000 and annual MEC output in the year 2000 should not be significantly different from current output, given constant 1984 gold prices of more than $300 per ounce.     

Quantification of Chinese steel cycle flow: Historical status and future options

China is the largest steel producer and consumer around the world. Quantifying the Chinese steel flow from cradle to grave can assist this industry to fully understand its historical status and future options on production route transformation, capacity planning, scrap availability, resource and energy consumption. With the help of the systematic methods combined dynamic MFA (material flow analysis) with scenario analysis, the Chinese steel cycle during the first half of the 21st century was quantified and several thought-provoking conclusions were draw. In the past decade, lots of pig iron or molten iron was fed into EAF (electric arc furnace) and the scrap usage of EAF fluctuated slightly. Thus, the real scrap-EAF route share is much lower than the EAF production share. On the other hand, we reconfirmed that the scrap supply in China will rise significantly in the future. Meanwhile, the secondary production route share will grow sharply and exceed primary production share before or after 2050 depending on our options. The scrap recycling rate and construction's lifetime play a vital role in this trend. In the end, an intensive discussion on production capacities’ adjustment and energy and resource consumption was conducted and relative policy suggestions were given. It is worth noting that scrap usage is crucial to future energy saving and emissions reduction of Chinese steel sector and its energy consumption might peak as early as 2015.     

Bioethics of fish production: Energy and the environment

Aquatic ecosystems are vital to the structure and function of all environments on earth. Worldwide, approximately 95 million metric tons of fishery products are harvested from marine and freshwater habitats. A major problem in fisheries around the world is the bioethics of overfishing. A wide range of management techniques exists for fishery, managers and policy-makers to improve fishery production in the future. The best approach to limit overfishing is to have an effective, federally regulated fishery, based on environmental standards and fishery carrying capacity. Soon, overfishing is more likely to cause fish scarcity than fossil fuel shortages and high energy prices for fish harvesting. However, oil and other fuel shortages are projected to influence future fishery policies and the productive capacity of the fishery industry. Overall, small-scale fishing systems are more energy efficient than large-scale systems. Aquaculture is not the solution to wild fishery production. The energy input/output ratio of aquacultural fish is much higher than that of the harvest of wild populations. In addition, the energy ratios for aquaculture systems are higher than those for most livestock systems.     

Australian gold exploration 1976–2003

The Australian gold industry has grown enormously over the past 25 years. Australian mine production of gold in 2003 was 284 t, similar to that of the USA, and behind South Africa, the world's largest gold-producing nation. Gold is Australia's third largest commodity export, worth an estimated A$5.3 billion in 2003–2004.Underpinning the industry is a solid resource base that has grown by successful exploration over the past three decades. Australia ranks third in the world after South Africa and the USA in terms of its economic gold resources. The growth in Australia's gold resources has been underpinned by high levels of exploration and innovations in gold processing technologies, specifically the development of carbon-based gold extraction methods that allowed commercial treatment of low grade ores. It has been supported by advances in gold exploration methods, especially exploration geochemistry.New resources were added at existing deposits and new deposits were found, including several of world class (>100 t contained gold), in each decade over the 25-year-period but resource growth since the 1990s has been dominated by brownfields additions rather than new discoveries. Average costs of discovery have now plateauxed at around A$20–25/oz, after falling sharply during the early to mid-1990s when a number of new discoveries were made, notably in the Yandal belt in Western Australia and the Lachlan Fold Belt in New South Wales. Current gold reserve/production and gold EDR/production ratios are 12 and 19 years, respectively, and indicate that the long-term future of the Australian gold industry depends on continued high levels of exploration and the discovery of new deposits to replace mines that are currently being depleted.     

煤炭产业国际竞争力的遗传—投影寻踪评价

根据煤炭产业发展的实际状况,提出了煤炭产业竞争力评价的指标体系。采用探索性数据分析—投影寻踪法,结合遗传算法,建立了遗传—投影寻踪综合评价模型。以全球11个主要产煤国为对象进行了实证研究,验证了该方法的科学性和实践的可行性,提出提升我国煤炭产业竞争力的对策建议。     

Environmental justice along product life cycles: importance,renewable energy examples and policy complexities

Environmental justice is critical to our efforts to preserve the human habitat from the degradation of pollution and climate change because of the need for cooperation and due to our ignorance of how the intertwined effects of our actions in one locality affect the quality of life in other localities across the world. While environmental justice questions are often focused on the location choices for specific activities that pollute, another important perspective is environmental justice over the life cycle of the production of products. Upon close examination renewable energies, critical alternatives to the fossil fuels which induce climate change, have environmental justice issues over their life cycles. Formal, statutory national law is not sufficient to address environmental justice problems along product life cycles in a world in which production is globalised and environmental effects pass beyond political borders. The responses to this challenge must draw on an interacting combination of information, custom, soft law, such as international standards and certification, and formal national laws. Through an interesting complex of intertwined effects, this system has already advanced our capacity to address environmental justice problems along product life cycles. The magnitude of the challenge and the complexity of the system demand ongoing effort and further innovation. Also, the system is not well configured to address our burgeoning consumption which continues to expand the burdens of future generations.     

Seaborne iron ore trade in the 1990s

This paper discusses how world steel production and seaborne iron ore trade have grown since 1950. The role of steel production forecasts in determining investment in the iron ore industry is examined. Forecasts for world steel production and the demand and supply of seaborne iron ore in the 1990s are presented. It is predicted that world steel production will increase by 64 million tons between 1991 and 2000. This increase will be located principally in the developing countries and China. The corresponding increase in seaborne iron ore trade will be approximately 55 million tons. Expansion projects will be located mainly in Australia and Brazil, but no greenfield iron ore projects will be undertaken. By the end of the decade, the demand for seaborne iron ore will be equal to its supply.     

发酵工业企业的清洁生产审计

本文以发酵工业企业为例,介绍了清洁生产的评价标准和审计程序,从发酵工业的特点出发提出了具体需要审计的内容,并以此说明清洁生产审计工作的重要性和需要加强的重点环节今后努力的方向。     

我国废有色金属拆解利用再生产业发展现状

阐述了我国废金属拆解利用产业发展现状及存在的主要问题,提出了应对废金属拆解再生产业加强政府引导、加强回收体系建设、研发推广先进技术和改善税收政策等对策建议。     

The USSR, China, India and the world metals industry to 2010

Remarkable changes are occurring within the economies of the USSR, China and India that are influencing mineral industry activities. These three countries account for a major share of world minerals production and consumption. Their domestic reforms may ultimately have a serious impact on the global mining industry. This paper examines the present status of the Soviet, Chinese and Indian mineral industries, and forecasts conditions to 2010. Long-term characteristics analysed include industrial production, intensity of use, consumption, mine and plant expansion and trade policy. Six metals are highlighted in the study – aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, steel and zinc.     

四川省制浆造纸行业可持续发展建议

造纸业是与民生关联度极高的行业.为改变国内造纸行业污染局面、整合企业规模、合理原料结构、提高技术装备、改革落后生产工艺,国家先后出台了多项政策规定.特别是2008年新的<制浆造纸工业水污染物排放标准>(GB3544)颁布后,四川省制浆造纸行业面临巨大的整改压力.如何抓住产业调整机遇,加快产品结构调整和生产方式转变,努力...     

辽宁省海洋经济主导产业分析——基于灰色关联法与波士顿模型法

海洋经济是辽宁经济新的增长点,在经济中占有越来越大的比例,是各地区经济竞争的重要领域.海洋产业是决定沿海城市和地区发展前途与命运的朝阳产业.辽宁省所处的独特区位条件决定了有条件加快发展海洋经济.确定主导产业能促进经济更快更好发展,采用灰色关联法、皮尔模型和波士顿矩阵法确定产业产值占经济总产值的比重与速度,进一步确定该地区的主导产业.     

当代中国旅游发展模式探讨

当前中国的经济在飞速发展的同时也在不断地探求更为合理的发展模式，旅游业作为第三产业的中坚力量更应该进行产业改造创新。未来旅游业在传统发展的基础上将呈现新的发展趋势，基于此，提出了未来旅游业的四种发展模式，并对其进行探讨性分析研究，以指导中国旅游业在世界旅游大发展的潮流中合理、健康发展。     

R&D prospects in the mining and metals industry

The mining and metals industry is considered more-or-less technology mature as it spends less than 1% of its revenues on R&D. In the period 2003-2008, that sector saw a very significant increase in profitability. Yet, during the same period, mining and metals companies continued to trim R&D spending, a trend that started in the early 1980s. In the near future the mining and metals industry will face significant challenges including an increased demand from the developing world counterbalanced by an overall trend to lower ore grades and with high pressure to reduce energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. To overcome these challenges, the mining and metals industry will likely face the need to considerably increase its R&D efforts. As the world enters a period of economic uncertainty, the sector will need to revise its approach towards R&D, reconsider its position against collaborative research with academia and other institutions, and be more creative when it comes to R&D funding.     

我国工业SO2排放趋势及影响因素分析

分析了我国工业SO2排放量的变化趋势,以及其与GDP、工业产值、火电厂发电量等指标的变化关系;利用50个省市1998—2007年的有关数据建立了SO2排放量的影响因素面板数据模型,力求通过定量分析识别影响我国工业SO2排放量的关键因素。研究表明,我国工业SO2排放量与第二产业比重、火力发电比重并无明显关系,而GDP、发电量、一次能源转化效率、SO2去除率存在显著关系,对SO2工业实际排放量起决定作用的是SO2的去除率。     

Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining

The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of “peak minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline.The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century.     

Market transparency in the international aluminium industry

Transparency requires many buyers and sellers with transactions executed at arms length in an open environment. The paper highlights the influence on transparency of the ownership and production structure; price formation; and the nature of the product. The world aluminium industry is analysed in light of the above in view of the emergence of terminal markets for aluminium. The disjuncture between the interests of physical traders and those speculating futures contracts is analysed in terms of the latter's effect on investment. Finally, the benefits and difficulties associated with terminal markets are explored, trends in the aluminium industry reviewed, and a framework within which to cope with aluminium as a commodity is proposed.