Spatiotemporal modeling of irregularly spaced aerosol optical depth data

Many advancements have been introduced to tackle spatial and temporal structures in data. When the spatial and/or temporal domains are relatively large, assumptions must be made to account for the sheer size of the data. The large data size, coupled with realities that come with observational data, make it difficult for all of these assumptions to be met. In particular, air quality data are very sparse across geographic space and time, due to a limited air pollution monitoring network. These “missing” values make it difficult to incorporate most dimension reduction techniques developed for high-dimensional spatiotemporal data. This article examines aerosol optical depth (AOD), an indirect measure of radiative forcing, and air quality. The spatiotemporal distribution of AOD can be influenced by both natural (e.g., meteorological conditions) and anthropogenic factors (e.g., emission from industries and transport). After accounting for natural factors influencing AOD, we examine the spatiotemporal relationship in the remaining human influenced portion of AOD. The presented data cover a portion of India surrounding New Delhi from 2000–2006. The proposed method is demonstrated showing how it can handle the large spatiotemporal structure containing so much missing data for both meteorologic conditions and AOD over time and space.     

Estimating the effects of meteorology on PM2.5 reduction during the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing, China

Particulate pollution was a critical challenge to the promise of good air quality during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, which took place from August 8th to 24th. To ensure good air quality for the Games, several temporary emission control measures were implemented in Beijing and surrounding areas. Ambient particulate matter concentration decreased significantly during the Olympic period; however, it is difficult to distinguish the effectiveness of those control measures since meteorology also affects ambient PM_2.5 concentration. In this work, a multiple linear regression model based on continuous field monitoring at a roadside site was conducted to evaluate the effects of meteorology and emission control measures on the reduction of PM_2.5 during the 2008 Olympic Games. The hourly data set was divided into two time periods, the no control period, June 22nd to July 4th, and the control period, July 28th to August 21st. The response variable was PM_2.5 and the meteorology covariates used in the model were hourly temperature, dew point temperature, wind speed and precipitation. Wind direction was not a significant predictor of PM_2.5 levels in either the control or the no control period. Using the meteorologically-based regression coefficients from the two time periods, meteorology was found to contribute to at least a 16% reduction in PM_2.5 levels in the roadside microenvironment; while the pollution control measures contributed to at least a 43% reduction in PM_2.5 levels.     

Target the neglected VOCs emission from iron and steel industry in China for air quality improvement

● Haze formation in China is highly correlated with iron and steel industry. ● VOCs generated in sinter process were neglected under current emission standard. ● Co-elimination removal of sinter flue gas complex pollutants are timely needed. Recent years have witnessed significant improvement in China’s air quality. Strict environmental protection measures have led to significant decreases in sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), and particulate matter (PM) emissions since 2013. But there is no denying that the air quality in 135 cities is inferior to reaching the Ambient Air Quality Standards (GB 3095–2012) in 2020. In terms of temporal, geographic, and historical aspects, we have analyzed the potential connections between China’s air quality and the iron and steel industry. The non-target volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions from iron and steel industry, especially from the iron ore sinter process, may be an underappreciated index imposing a negative effect on the surrounding areas of China. Therefore, we appeal the authorities to pay more attention on VOCs emission from the iron and steel industry and establish new environmental standards. And different iron steel flue gas pollutants will be eliminated concurrently with the promotion and application of new technology.     

基于GIS的中国API指数时空分布规律研究

以2009年1月至2012年12月的中国120个重点城市的API监测数据为基础,通过选取最优的空间插值方法获得各月及各季节的API空间分布图,并运用剖面线分析等空间数据分析方法研究其空间分布规律。结果表明,API在不同时段的变化较大;存在着明显的季节变化趋势,总体上冬季最高、春季次之、夏季最低,且夏秋季基本均分布在100以内;中国空气质量状况总体良好,API主要分布在51~100之间,但有较多地区分布在80~100间,空气环境质量仍不容乐观;API分布着以兰州和西宁为中心、陕西省西安市为中心及乌鲁木齐市和吐鲁番市为中心的几个空气质量较差的高值集聚的＂热点＂区域及海南省、广东省及福建省的沿海区域、西藏自治区等几个空气质量较好的低值集聚的＂冷点＂区域;在N-S、WE、NW-SE、NE-SW四个剖面线方向上相同季节的分布趋势基本一致,且同一方向上春夏秋冬四季的分布也大致相同,基本呈现＂低-高-低＂的分布趋势且北方地区明显高于南方地区。     

Do new health conditions support mortality–air pollution effects?

Epidemiological research underlying US air quality regulations documents significant associations between measures of fine particles and premature mortality. Recent studies examine potential mechanistic pathways, related to heart and lung functioning, that may contribute to the observed deaths. Our results support these pathophysiological analyses. We examine whether the onset of serious health conditions, consistent with disease pathways, is related to current and long-term exposure to particulate matter and ozone. Associations between air pollution and alternative indicators of health status are also evaluated. The 1996 wave of the Health and Retirement Study is used with a two-step estimator acknowledging limitations in our ability to measure individual exposures. The findings suggest significant current and long-term effects of particulates on new cases of heart attacks and angina, reinforcing the disease pathways identified in epidemiological studies. Long-term air pollution exposure is also a determinant of recently diagnosed chronic lung conditions and reports of shortness of breath.     

沙尘与大雾天气对京津石空气质量影响

采用北京、天津、石家庄2001-2010年沙尘与大雾天气的统计数据以及城市空气污染指数（API）,分析北京、天津、石家庄3市空气污染指数变化特征及大雾和沙尘天气下北京、天津、石家庄3市空气质量情况,进而得出沙尘大雾天气对京津石空气质量的影响。结果表明：2001-2010年间北京、天津、石家庄3市API总体呈下降趋势,天津、石家庄相对于北京空气质量改善较为明显,且空气质量夏季〉秋季〉春冬季。沙尘天气条件下,北京、天津、石家庄3市API平均值分别为255、179和167,空气质量出现良的比率天津为24%,北京、石家庄为10%左右,出现重污染的比率北京高达50%以上,天津和石家庄均在20%左右;3市沙尘天气高频次均出现在3-5月份,但北京沙尘天气发生次数远大于天津和石家庄。大雾天气条件下,北京、天津、石家庄3市API平均值为185、130和167,空气质量出现优或良的比率：天津〉石家庄〉北京,北京和石家庄出现重污染的比率均接近30%,天津不到10%,所以大雾天气对3市空气质量影响较小,大雾天气频次的变化波动并未对该地区空气质量的年际变化造成显著影响,3市高频次大雾天气集中在10-12月份,对该时段内空气污染呈现加重趋势有一定的贡献。所以沙尘和大雾天气均对北京、天津和石家庄空气质量存在不利影响,其中对北京影响最为严重,对天津影响最轻。整体上沙尘对3市的空气质量影响较大,大雾天气影响较小。     

近年来长江流域气溶胶光学厚度时空变化特征分析

利用2000年3月至2011年2月MODIS Level3遥感反演大气气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）产品数据,结合中国地形的3大阶梯分布,分析近年来长江流域气溶胶光学厚度的时空变化特征。结果表明,近12年来,长江流域的年平均AOD值在0．38,～,0．44之间变化,其中“第一阶梯”年平均AOD呈极显著下降趋势（P〈0．01）,“第二阶梯”和“第三阶梯”则呈上升趋势,但趋势不显著（P〉0．05）;4季平均AOD除春季呈下降趋势,其他3季均为上升趋势,其中冬季上升速率最快,线性倾向率为0．004·a-1（P〈0．05）,春季AOD与其他季节的差距在逐步减小;长江流域3大阶梯AOD具有鲜明的季节变化特征,基本上是春夏季较大,秋冬季较小,具体表现为春季最大,从夏季到冬季逐渐减小,冬季到来年春季跳跃性增高,但由于地理位置、地形、气候、人类活动等因素的影响,不同区域又有所差异;AOD年平均值和四季平均值均表现为“第三阶梯”〉“第二阶梯”〉“第一阶梯”。长江流域年平均AOD变化空间差异显著,其中显著减少区域占整个流域面积的17．54％,主要分布在“第一阶梯”;显著增加的区域仅占流域总面积的5．23％,主要分布在“第二阶梯”和“第三阶梯”。另外,由于海拔、地形及山脉阻挡等诸多因素影响,导致在地形阶梯间高程突变线左右两边的狭窄区域,AOD分布存在低处明显大于高处的现象。这些结果有助于长江流域的区域气候变化和环境研究。     

Impact of energy structure adjustment on air quality: a case study in Beijing, China

Energy consumption is a major cause of air pollution in Beijing, and the adjustment of the energy structure is of strategic importance to the reduction of carbon intensity and the improvement of air quality. In this paper, we explored the future trend of energy structure adjustment in Beijing till 2020, designed five energy scenarios focusing on the fuel substitution in power plants and heating sectors, established emission inventories, and utilized the Mesoscale Modeling System Generation 5 (MM5) and the Models-3/Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) to evaluate the impact of these measures on air quality. By implementing this systematic energy structure adjustment, the emissions of PM₁₀, PM_2.5, SO₂, NO _x , and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) will decrease distinctly by 34.0%, 53.2%, 78.3%, 47.0%, and 30.6% respectively in the most coalintensive scenario of 2020 compared with 2005. Correspondingly, MM5-Models-3/CMAQ simulations indicate significant reduction in the concentrations of major pollutants, implying that energy structure adjustment can play an important role in improving Beijing??s air quality. By fuel substitution for power plants and heating boilers, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, SO₂, NO _x , and NMVOCs will be reduced further, but slightly by 1.7%, 4.5%, 11.4%, 13.5%, and 8.8% respectively in the least coal-intensive scenario. The air quality impacts of different scenarios in 2020 resemble each other, indicating that the potential of air quality improvement due to structure adjustment in power plants and heating sectors is limited. However, the CO₂ emission is 10.0% lower in the least coal-intensive scenario than in the most coal-intensive one, contributing to Beijing??s ambition to build a low carbon city. Except for energy structure adjustment, it is necessary to take further measures to ensure the attainment of air quality standards.     

Using a sub-grid scale modeling approach to simulate the transport and fate of toxic air pollutants

Several air toxics are emitted from mobile sources on roadways and these emissions account for a significant fraction of the health risks to the population. In addition, health effect studies are now becoming more comprehensive and some account for the spatial heterogeneities of air pollutant concentration fields (as is the case near roadways). Standard models can simulate either the near-source concentration fields or the urban background, but no model can handle both spatial scales in the vicinity of roadways in a coherent and scientifically correct manner. Here, we present a model that provides such an integrated treatment by combining a grid-based air quality model of the urban background with a plume-in-grid representation of roadway emissions. The model is applied to simulate near-roadway concentrations due to emissions from a busy interstate highway in New York City. Qualitative comparisons with typical measured concentration profiles show that the model captures the observed features of toxic air pollutant concentrations near roadways.     

The effects of license plate-based driving restrictions on air quality: Theory and empirical evidence

A typical driving restriction prohibits drivers from using their vehicles on given weekdays, based on the last digits of their vehicles’ license plates. A number of cities in developing countries have used license plate-based driving restrictions as a policy for reducing urban air pollution and traffic congestion. This paper develops a theoretical model of the effects of license plate-based driving restrictions on air quality that combines an economic model with information about the sources and atmospheric chemistry of different air pollutants. We then draw upon suggestive empirical evidence from license plate-based driving restrictions implemented in Bogotá, Colombia. Consistent with our theory model, we find suggestive empirical evidence that under certain circumstances, due to substitution, the purchase of a second car, the use of alternative modes of transportation, and/or atmospheric chemistry, it is possible for license plate-based driving restrictions to increase air pollution. Also consistent with our theory, we find that license plate-based driving restrictions may have different effects on different air pollutants, reflecting heterogeneity in the sources and atmospheric chemistry of the pollutants. In particular, owing to atmospheric chemistry, it is possible for a license plate-based driving restriction to cause a significant decrease in NO and a significant increase in NO₂, NO_x, and O₃.     

Estimating the effect of air pollution on road safety using atmospheric temperature inversions

Does air quality influence road safety? We estimate the effect of increased air pollution on the number of road traffic accidents in the United Kingdom between 2009 and 2014. To address concerns of spurious correlation we exploit atmospheric temperature inversions as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in daily air pollution levels. We find an increase of 0.3–0.6% in the number of vehicles involved in accidents per day for each additional 1 μg/m³ of PM_2.5. The finding suggests that less safe roads may present a large and previously overlooked cost of air pollution. The results are robust to a number of specifications and across various sub-samples.     

Air quality improvement in Los Angeles—perspectives for developing cities

Air quality improvement in Los Angeles can inform air quality policies in developing cities. Emission control efforts, their results, costs and health benefits are briefly summarized. Today's developing cities face new challenges including regional pollution. Air quality issues in Beijing are briefly compared and contrasted with Los Angeles. Opportunities for co-benefits for climate and air quality improvement are identified. Air quality improvement in Los Angeles, California is reviewed with an emphasis on aspects that may inform air quality policy formulation in developing cities. In the mid-twentieth century the air quality in Los Angeles was degraded to an extent comparable to the worst found in developing cities today; ozone exceeded 600 ppb and annual average particulate matter <10 mm reached ~150 mg·m⁻³. Today's air quality is much better due to very effective emission controls; e.g., modern automobiles emit about 1% of the hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide emitted by vehicles of 50 years ago. An overview is given of the emission control efforts in Los Angeles and their impact on ambient concentrations of primary and secondary pollutants; the costs and health benefits of these controls are briefly summarized. Today's developing cities have new challenges that are discussed: the effects of regional pollution transport are much greater in countries with very high population densities; often very large current populations must be supplied with goods and services even while economic development and air quality concerns are addressed; and many of currently developing cities are located in or close to the tropics where photochemical processing of pollution is expected to be more rapid than at higher latitudes. The air quality issues of Beijing are briefly compared and contrasted with those of Los Angeles, and the opportunities for co-benefits for climate and air quality improvement are pointed out.     

Distribution of mercury in the atmosphere over Idrija, Slovenia

Idrija mine, the second largest mercury mine in the world, was in use since 1490. More than 107 000 tons of Hg were produced in its five centuries of history until 1990 when production was reduced to a few hundred kilos per year. The average recovery rate of mercury has been estimated to 73%; much of the remaining 27% was dissipated into the environment. In spite of present minimal levels of production, and only a few days of smelter operation per year, a real time survey with a mercury Zeeman analyser in a car showed relatively high mercury concentrations in the air. Amounts of 300--4000 ng Hg ^m-3 have been found around both the major sources of mercury vapour, the smelter and mine ventilation shaft -- while the amounts at the Old Place, at the City Museum, and near the Nikova-Idrijca confluence are of the order of 50 ng m^-3. Polluted air will be transported from those sources to a degree which depends on the weather conditions, mainly the direction and intensity of the wind. The high mercury contents in the air are not only due to anthropogenic sources (smelter and the ventilation shaft, dumps and smelter slag used in construction), but may also partly be natural as in the Pront area, where the outcropping bedrock contains native mercury.     

Who counts in evaluating the effects of air pollution policies on households? Non-market valuation in the presence of dependencies

Individuals who are likely to realize the largest benefits from improvements in air quality often depend on other members of their households to make time or monetary contributions to their care. The presence of these dependency relationships among household members poses challenges for benefit estimation since it is unlikely that the conditions necessary for recovering the underlying individual preferences from household choices are satisfied in this setting. We propose a conceptual framework that highlights the role of these dependencies in the choice models used to estimate the willingness to pay for environmental quality improvements. We design a complementary stated preference survey that describes hypothetical dependency relationships for household members of different ages to test the implications of our conceptual model. Respondents' stated choices take into account the proposed care-giving responsibilities for young children and teenagers but not for older adults.     

Influence of various emission scenarios on ozone in Europe

In this study, we investigated the effect of numerous regulations enforced since 1985 to improve air quality on ozone in Europe with the focus on Switzerland, using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) for a specific summer period. Several emission scenarios for the year 2010 were also considered. The model results suggest that the emission reductions of ozone precursors should have been effective to reduce ozone production between 1985 and 2000 in northern Switzerland. However, observations do not indicate any significant change in surface ozone levels since early 1990s, except in the region of Zurich where there is a small negative trend. On the other hand, the model predictions match very well the spatial variability of the trends but the calculated trends are around 0.5 ppb year⁻¹ lower than those observed. This difference is similar to the background ozone increase as suggested by the long-term observations at the high Alpine station Jungfraujoch. These results support the hypothesis that the decrease in local ozone production due to emission reductions might have been partly or completely compensated by the simultaneous increase in the background ozone. In 2010, a strict application of the Gothenburg Protocol in Europe would lead to a decrease in peak ozone concentrations by about 5% in Switzerland under the meteorological conditions applied. Our calculations also indicated that emission controls only in Switzerland would not be very effective to improve the air quality in the future. The further development of the background ozone will in any case be very important for the tropospheric ozone levels.     

Evaluation of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on air quality in southern China from long-term historical observations

•Strong ENSO influence on AOD is found in southern China region. •Low AOD occurs in El Niño but high AOD occurs in La Niña events in southern China. •Angstrom exponent anomalies reveals the circulation pattern during each ENSO phase. •ENSO exerts large influence (70.5%) on annual variations of AOD during 2002–2020. •Change of anthropogenic emissions is the dominant driver for AOD trend (2002–2020). Previous studies demonstrated that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could modulate regional climate thus influencing air quality in the low-middle latitude regions like southern China. However, such influence has not been well evaluated at a long-term historical scale. To filling the gap, this study investigated two-decade (2002 to 2020) aerosol concentration and particle size in southern China during the whole dynamic development of ENSO phases. Results suggest strong positive correlations between aerosol optical depth (AOD) and ENSO phases, as low AOD occurred during El Niño while high AOD occurred during La Niña event. Such correlations are mainly attributed to the variation of atmospheric circulation and precipitation during corresponding ENSO phase. Analysis of the angstrom exponent (AE) anomalies further confirmed the circulation pattern, as negative AE anomalies is pronounced in El Niño indicating the enhanced transport of sea salt aerosols from the South China Sea, while the La Niña event exhibits positive AE anomalies which can be attributed to the enhanced import of northern fine anthropogenic aerosols. This study further quantified the AOD variation attributed to changes in ENSO phases and anthropogenic emissions. Results suggest that the long-term AOD variation from 2002 to 2020 in southern China is mostly driven (by 64.2%) by the change of anthropogenic emissions from 2002 to 2020. However, the ENSO presents dominant influence (70.5%) on year-to-year variations of AOD during 2002–2020, implying the importance of ENSO on varying aerosol concentration in a short-term period.     

Gas-phase and aerosol chemistry interactions in South Europe and the Mediterranean region

The atmospheric chemical composition is affected by the interaction mechanisms among gases and particulate matter through a wide range of chemical reactions that can occur with the aid of particulate matter (e.g. particles act as reacting or absorbing surfaces) or be influenced by the presence of particulate matter in the atmosphere (photochemical reactions). Physical and chemical processes are also bonded in an interactive way that often leads to the influence of the radiation budget, cloud physics and the warming or cooling of the lower atmospheric levels. The Euro-Mediterranean region is a key-sensitive area due to the unique climatic and air quality characteristics associated with the regional climatic patterns, geomorphology (land and water contrast) and coexistence of pollutants from different origin. Focusing on this region, the gas-aerosol interactions are studied using state-of-the-art atmospheric and chemical transport modeling tools following the necessary development in the chemical transport model CAMx. Sensitivity and large-scale simulations have shown significant responses of the modeling system to the inclusion of natural species emissions, the direct shading effect of dust particles on photochemical processes and the formation of new types of aerosols through heterogeneous uptake of gases on dust particles. Including such interactions in the chemical transport model often led to the improvement of the model performance compared with available measurements in the region.     

Cost-benefit analysis of implementing policy measures for reducing PM and O3 concentrations: the case of Israel

This paper aims to identify the most suitable and economically feasible policy measures to reduce concentrations of particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O₃) in Israel. It describes a comprehensive methodology that takes into account the effects of PM and O₃ and describes the overall costs and benefits expected from their reduction. Cost-benefit analysis of a series of proposed policy measures allows us to identify and recommend those that are most feasible and effective. These policy measures have a significant impact on reducing air pollution on one hand, while constituting the highest net benefit to the economy on the other.     

Extreme value analysis of Munich air pollution data

We present three different approaches to modelling extreme values of daily air pollution data. We fitted a generalized extreme value distribution to the monthly maxima of daily concentration measures. For the exceedances of a high threshold depending on the data, the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution were estimated. Accounting for autocorrelation, clusters of exceedances were used. To obtain information about the relationship of the exceedance of the air quality standard and possible predictors we applied logistic regression. Results and their interpretation are given for daily average concentrations of ozone and nitrogen dioxide at two monitoring sites within the city of Munich.