Fuzzy Modeling of Interactions Among Environmental Stressors in the Ecosystem of Lake Koronia,Greece

The development of a model for assessing the impact and interactions of stressors in the ecosystem of Lake Koronia, based on fuzzy inference, is presented in this paper. The proposed fuzzy inference model assesses the synergistic interactions among several significant stressors on fish production. These stressors include industrial pollution, pesticide and nutrient usage due to agricultural activities, and water level decrease due to irrigation works. Apart from the experts knowledge, expressed in a set of fuzzy rules, a number of parameters such as pH, conductivity, biochemical and chemical oxygen demand, and nitrate concentration were used as stressor indicators. The proposed model is capable of simulating the effect of a large variety of environmental conditions, and it can be used as a dynamic tool for ecosystem risk assessment since it produces both qualitative and quantitative results, allowing for comparisons of predictions with on-going observational research and ecosystem monitoring. Its operation was successfully verified for a number of different conditions, ranging from low stressor impact to high stressor impact (where, in fact, the fish production was diminished). Moreover, the proposed fuzzy inference model can be used as a tool for the investigation of the behavior of the aquatic ecosystem under a large number of hypothetical environmental risk scenarios.     

A Knowledge-Based Systems Approach to Design of Spatial Decision Support Systems for Environmental Management

/ This paper describes a framework for designing spatial decision support systems for environmental management using a knowledge-based systems approach. An architecture for knowledge-based spatial decision supportsystems (KBSDSS) is presented that integrates knowledge-based systems with geographical information systems (GIS) and other problem-solving techniques. A method based on spatial influence diagrams is developed for representation of environmental problems. The spatial influence diagram provides an interface through which knowledge-based systems techniques can be applied to build capabilities for problem formulation, automated design, and execution of a solution process. In addition to the flexibility and developmental advantages of knowledge-based systems, the KBSDSS incorporates expert knowledge to provide assistance for structuring spatial influence diagrams and executing a solution process that automatically integrates the GIS, data base, knowledge base, and different types of models. The framework is illustrated with a system, known as the Islay Land Use Decision Support System (ILUDSS), designed to assist planners in strategic planning of land use for the development of the island of Islay, off the west coast of Scotland.KEY WORDS: Geographical information systems; Spatial decision support systems; Knowledge-based systems; Spatial influence diagrams; Environmental management     

Application of an Environmental Decision Support System to a Water Quality Trading Program Affected by Surface Water Diversions

Environmental decision support systems (EDSSs) are an emerging tool used to integrate the evaluation of highly complex and interrelated physicochemical, biological, hydrological, social, and economic aspects of environmental problems. An EDSS approach is developed to address hot-spot concerns for a water quality trading program intended to implement the total maximum daily load (TMDL) for phosphorus in the Non-Tidal Passaic River Basin of New Jersey. Twenty-two wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) spread throughout the watershed are considered the major sources of phosphorus loading to the river system. Periodic surface water diversions to a major reservoir from the confluence of two key tributaries alter the natural hydrology of the watershed and must be considered in the development of a trading framework that ensures protection of water quality. An EDSS is applied that enables the selection of a water quality trading framework that protects the watershed from phosphorus-induced hot spots. The EDSS employs Simon’s (1960) three stages of the decision-making process: intelligence, design, and choice. The identification of two potential hot spots and three diversion scenarios enables the delineation of three management areas for buying and selling of phosphorus credits among WWTPs. The result shows that the most conservative option entails consideration of two possible diversion scenarios, and trading between management areas is restricted accordingly. The method described here is believed to be the first application of an EDSS to a water quality trading program that explicitly accounts for surface water diversions.     

Evaluating Environmental Sustainability: An Integration of Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making and Fuzzy Logic

While pursuing economic development, countries around the world have become aware of the importance of environmental sustainability; therefore, the evaluation of environmental sustainability has become a significant issue. Traditionally, multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) was widely used as a way of evaluating environmental sustainability, Recently, several researchers have attempted to implement this evaluation with fuzzy logic since they recognized the assessment of environmental sustainability as a subjective judgment Intuition. This paper outlines a new evaluation-framework of environmental sustainability, which integrates fuzzy logic into MCDM. This evaluation-framework consists of 36 structured and 5 unstructured decision-points, wherein MCDM is used to handle the former and fuzzy logic serves for the latter, With the integrated evaluation-framework, the evaluations of environmental sustainability in 146 countries are calculated, ranked and clustered, and the evaluation results are very helpful to these countries, as they identify their obstacles towards environmental sustainability.     

Degradation Model: A Quantitative EIA Instrument,Acting as a Decision Support System (DSS) for Environmental Management

Environmental assessment of alternative development plans, programs, and policies may bring conflict among decision-makers, particularly when some quantitative measures for decision-making are needed and where cumulative impacts are neglected. Environmental impact assessment (EIA) and environmental economics theories, despite their usefulness, are not capable of addressing those issues and problems alone. In recent years, the decision support system (DSS) has provided some solutions, but mathematical analysis of the system to show the internal structure of the problem is not always possible. To addres the above shortcomings and ongoing problems of decision-making in Iran, a degradation model (DM) was introduced as an instrument of EIA, to act as a DSS for managers. The model is a compromise between knowledge-based decision support systems, detailed models, digested information models, and the basic theorem of environmental economics. In the present study (1996–2000), the model was applied in three provinces of Iran, representing three of four biogeographical regions of Iran. The study area was divided into a set of grids (100 km²). The degradation coefficient (H) was computed for all grids (1333), representing the degree of degradation in the grid. It is obvious that the higher the coefficient the more area is degraded and less prone to further development, and vice versa. In order to provide decision-makers with a set of quantitative measures to observe impacted areas (critical and noncritical) for resource allocation and further development, the degradation coefficients of all grids were classified into categories and criteria, using a fuzzy set theoretic approach. Accordingly, only 24% of study areas are prone to further development. The degradation model as a knowledge-based decision support system has its strengths and weaknesses, but it has solved managers' ongoing problems in Iran and it could be used elsewhere.     

Evaluating Nonpoint Pollution Policy Using a Tightly Coupled Spatial Decision Support System

Policy makers often must rely on the cumulative impact of independent actions taken by local landowners to achieve environmental goals. The connection between policy, regulation, and local action, however, is often not well understood and, thus, the impact of proposed policies may be difficult to predict. In this study we evaluate the effectiveness of alternative policy scenarios for agricultural set aside programs (e.g., the conservation reserve program administered by the United States Department of Agriculture) in reducing nonpoint pollution. Two alternative policy scenarios are developed and analyzed; one based on the erodibility index (detachment), the other sediment yield (transport). An estimate of the cumulative impact of associated land use change on nonpoint pollution is made using the AGNPS distributed parameter watershed model. This work is completed within the Cypress Creek watershed in southern Illinois. An analysis of the resulting data suggests that the most efficacious regulatory strategy for achieving nonpoint water pollution goals depends, in part, on place-specific land use patterns. This conclusion provides a solid argument for place-based regulatory strategies.     

决策支持系统应用于城市环境管理

南宁市环境决策支持系统集环境管理办公自动化、环境管理系统(MIS)、环境地理信息系统(GIS)、多媒体环境管理信息应用和环境管理信息辅助决策等多功能一体集成的综合性环境信息系统，为南宁市环境管理、经济发展决策提供环境信息支撑与服务。     

Evaluating the Outcomes of Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support

Does collaborative modeling improve water resource management outcomes? How does collaborative modeling improve these outcomes? Does it always work? Under what conditions is collaborative modeling most appropriate? With support from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources (IWR), researchers developed an evaluation framework to help address these questions. The framework links the effects of collaborative modeling on decision‐making processes with improvements in the extent to which resource management decisions, practices, and policies balance societal needs. Both practitioners' and participants' experiences suggest that under the right circumstances, collaborative modeling can generate these beneficial outcomes. Researchers developed performance measures and a survey to systematically capture these experiences and evaluate the outcomes of collaborative modeling processes. The survey can provide immediate feedback during a project to determine whether collaborative modeling is having the desired effect and whether course correction is warranted. Over the longer term, the systematic evaluation of collaborative modeling processes will help demonstrate in what ways and under what circumstances collaborative modeling is effective, inform and improve best practices, and raise awareness among water resource planners regarding the use of collaborative modeling for resource management decisions.     

Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques for Selecting a Sustainable Scenario for Lake Koronia,Greece

During recent decades, Lake Koronia has undergone severe degradation as a result of human activities around the lake and throughout the basin. Surface and groundwater abstraction and pollution from agricultural, industrial, and municipal sources are the major sources of degradation. Planning a restoration project was hampered by lack of sufficient data, with gaps evident in both spatial and temporal dimensions. This study emphasized various remote sensing and geographic information system techniques, such as digital image processing and geographic overlay, to fill gaps using satellite imagery and other spatial environmental, hydrological, and hydrogeological data in the process of planning the restoration of Lake Koronia, following Ramsar guidelines. Current and historical remote sensing data were used to assess the current status and level of degradation, set constraints and define the ideotype for the restoration, and, finally, define and select the best restoration scenario.     

构建与设计化学矿业可持续发展决策支持系统

本文讨论了化学矿业可持续发展的内涵和实现可持续发展战略的最佳技术手段之一,即建立化学矿业可持续发展空间决策支持系统的重要性,提出了化学矿业可持续发展决策支持系统的构建理论依据和方法,探讨了化学矿业可持续发展空间决策支持系统总体设计、系统分析的数学模型以及系统的方法库和模型库的设计。     

基于人工神经网络的突发环境事故应急系统

突发环境事故现场具有形势紧迫、信息获取困难等特点,引入人工神经网络技术(Artificial Neural Networks,ANN)设计开发的突发环境事故应急决策支持系统(ANN-EEDSS),能够完成现场应急指挥调度的定量化决策支持。关键技术包括突发环境事故神经网络构建方法,事故信息与应急措施的数字化方法,决策信息的翻译表示,事故影响因素的权重分析。最后阐述了系统现场运行和工作的流程。     

Multi‐Criteria Decision Support Systems for Flood Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Response in Urban Watersheds1

Abstract: Flood management problems are inherently complex, time‐bound and multi‐faceted, involving many decision makers (with conflicting priorities and dynamic preferences), high decision stakes, limited technical information (both in terms of quality and quantity), and difficult tradeoffs. Multi‐Criteria Decision Support Systems (MCDSS) can help to manage this complexity and decision load by combining value judgments and technical information in a structured decision framework. A brief overview of MCDSS is presented, an original MCDSS architecture is put forth, and future research directions are discussed, including extensions to Multi‐Criteria Spatial Decision Support Systems and group MCDSS (as flood management involves shared resources and broad constituencies). With application to the September 11‐12, 2000 Tokai floods in Japan, the proposed multi‐criteria decision support instruments enhance communication among stakeholders and improve emergency management resource allocation. In summary, by making the links among flood knowledge, assumptions and choices more explicit, MCDSS increases stakeholder satisfaction, saves lives, and reduces flood management costs, thereby increasing decision‐making effectiveness, efficiency and transparency.     

填埋场环境影响评价决策支持系统的研究和开发

通过分析我国填埋场环评存在的问题，本文提出采用VB6．0的方法，基于知识推理来建立填埋环境影响评价决策支持系统（LEIADSS），使填埋场环评工作标准化。实例研究显示，利用VB6．0编程语言可以方便的完成该系统的设计，且能使环评工作快速、准确的完成。     

Land Resource Sustainability for Urban Development: Spatial Decision Support System Prototype

Land resource sustainability for urban development characterizes the problem of decision-making with multiplicity and uncertainty. A decision support system prototype aids in the assessment of incremental land development plan proposals put forth within the long-term community priority of a sustainable growth. Facilitating this assessment is the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multicriteria evaluation and decision support system. The decision support system incorporates multiple sustainability criteria, weighted strategically responsive to local public policy priorities and community–specific situations and values, while gauging and directing desirable future courses of development. Furthermore, the decision support system uses a GIS, which facilitates an assessment of urban form with multiple indicators of sustainability as spatial criteria thematically. The resultant land-use sustainability scores indicate, on the ratio-scale of AHP, whether or not a desirable urban form is likely in the long run, and if so, to what degree. The two alternative modes of synthesis in AHP—ideal and distributive—provide assessments of a land development plan incrementally (short-term) and city-wide pattern comprehensively (long-term), respectively. Thus, the spatial decision support system facilitates proactive and collective public policy determination of land resource for future sustainable urban development.     

Development of a Decision Support System for Assessing Farm Animal Welfare in Relation to Husbandry Systems: Strategy and Prototype

Due to increasing empiricalinformation on farm animal welfare since the1960s, the prospects for sound decisionmakingconcerning welfare have improved. This paperdescribes a strategy to develop adecision-making aid, a decision support system,for assessment of farm-animal welfare based onavailable scientific knowledge. Such a decisionsupport system allows many factors to be takeninto account. It is to be developed accordingto the Evolutionary Prototyping Method, inwhich an initial prototype is improved inreiterative updating cycles. This initialprototype has been constructed. It useshierarchical representations to analysescientific statements and statements describingthe housing system. Welfare is assessed fromwhat is known about the biological needs of theanimals, using a welfare model in the form of atree that contains these needs as welfarecomponents. Each state of need is assessedusing welfare relevant attributes of thehousing system and weighting factors.Attributes are measurable properties of thehousing system. Weighting factors are assignedaccording to heuristic rules based on theprinciple of weighting all components(attributes and needs) equally, unless thereare strong reasons to do otherwise. Preliminarytests of the prototype indicate that it may bepossible to perform assessment of farm-animalwelfare in an explicit way and based onempirical findings. The procedure needs to berefined, but its prospects are promising.     

A Multidisciplinary Decision Support System for Forest Fire Crisis Management

A wildland fire is a serious threat for forest ecosystems in Southern Europe affecting severely and irreversibly regions of significant ecological value as well as human communities. To support decision makers during large-scale forest fire incidents, a multidisciplinary system has been developed that provides rational and quantitative information based on the site-specific circumstances and the possible consequences. The systems architecture consists of several distinct supplementary modules of near real-time satellite monitoring and fire forecast using an integrated framework of satellite Remote Sensing, GIS, and RDBMS technologies equipped with interactive communication capabilities. The system may handle multiple fire ignitions and support decisions regarding dispatching of utilities, equipment, and personnel that would appropriately attack the fire front. The operational system was developed for the region of Penteli Mountain in Attika, Greece, one of the mountain areas in the country most hit by fires. Starting from a real fire incident in August 2000, a scenario is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

Developing a New Operations Plan for the Bow River Basin Using Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support

The Bow River Basin is a cornerstone of Alberta's development. In 2010, stakeholders representing interests from agriculture, municipalities, environment, and more formed the Bow River Project Research Consortium to help determine the potential for improving the operations in the basin. At present, upstream reservoirs are operated primarily for hydropower, whereas downstream reservoirs are operated for irrigation. Through Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support the stakeholders were able to develop a new method for operating the system that would dramatically improve environmental performance. The main components of the new operating strategy called for: purchase or setting aside of a small amount of storage volume in the power reservoirs; a set of rules for releases from that storage; an agreement by the major irrigation districts with the largest water licenses to utilize their ability to shift deliveries to and from their large offstream storage reservoirs to allow for increased instream flows, and to allow junior water license holders (mainly municipal and industrial supplies) an uninterrupted water supply; limitations of reservoir fluctuations to improve inreservoir habitat for fisheries; and increased minimum flows throughout the system leading to improved environmental outcomes. Costs of this strategy were minimal, impacts on power revenue were estimated at <US$2 million/yr on average. Compensatory arrangements should be possible.     

Decision Support System for Managing Oil Spill Events

The Mediterranean environment is exposed to various hazards, including oil spills, forest fires, and floods, making the development of a decision support system (DSS) for emergency management an objective of utmost importance. The present work presents a complete DSS for managing marine pollution events caused by oil spills. The system provides all the necessary tools for early detection of oil-spills from satellite images, monitoring of their evolution, estimation of the accident consequences and provision of support to responsible Public Authorities during clean-up operations. The heart of the system is an image processing–geographic information system and other assistant individual software tools that perform oil spill evolution simulation and all other necessary numerical calculations as well as cartographic and reporting tasks related to a specific management of the oil spill event. The cartographic information is derived from the extant general maps representing detailed information concerning several regional environmental and land-cover characteristics as well as financial activities of the application area. Early notification of the authorities with up-to-date accurate information on the position and evolution of the oil spill, combined with the detailed coastal maps, is of paramount importance for emergency assessment and effective clean-up operations that would prevent environmental hazard. An application was developed for the Region of Crete, an area particularly vulnerable to oil spills due to its location, ecological characteristics, and local economic activities.     

Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support in Water Resources: Principles and Best Practices

Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support integrates collaborative modeling with participatory processes to inform natural resources decisions. Practitioners and advocates claim that the approach will lead to better water management, balancing interests more effectively and reducing the likelihood of costly legal delays. These claims are easy to make, but the benefits will only be realized if the process is conducted effectively. To provide guidance for how to conduct an effective collaborative modeling process, a task committee cosponsored by the Environmental Water Resources Institute (EWRI) of the American Society of Civil Engineers and by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources developed a set of Principles and Best Practices for anyone who might convene or conduct collaborative modeling processes. The guidance is intended for both conflict resolution professionals and modelers, and our goal is to integrate these two fields in a way that will improve water resources planning and decision making. Here, the set of eight principles is presented along with a selection of associated best practices, illustrated by two different case examples. The complete document is available at: http://www.computeraideddisputeresolution.us/bestpractices/ .     

Identifying Opportunities for Decision Support Systems in Support of Regional Resource Use Planning: An Approach Through Soft Systems Methodology

/ Regional resource use planning relies on key regional stakeholder groups using and having equitable access to appropriate social, economic, and environmental information and assessment tools. Decision support systems (DSS) can improve stakeholder access to such information and analysis tools. Regional resource use planning, however, is a complex process involving multiple issues, multiple assessment criteria, multiple stakeholders, and multiple values. There is a need for an approach to DSS development that can assist in understanding and modeling complex problem situations in regional resource use so that areas where DSSs could provide effective support can be identified, and the user requirements can be well established. This paper presents an approach based on the soft systems methodology for identifying DSS opportunities for regional resource use planning, taking the Central Highlands Region of Queensland, Australia, as a case study.