Effects of the reduction of pollution emissions on the economic performance of firms: an empirical analysis focusing on demand and productivity

This paper analyzes whether the reduction of pollution emissions improves a firm’s economic performance through the increase in sales to environmentally conscious customers and the cost reductions associated with the improvement in productivity. Because the selection of the control (end-of-pipe) or prevention (cleaner production) approach differently influences the effect through the improvement in productivity, this is also considered. Using panel data for Japanese manufacturing firms over the period 2002–2008, the findings indicate that firms that have reduced their pollution emissions can increase their economic performance through the increase in demand for their products and an improvement in productivity. However, the latter is conditional, and so the prevention approach is preferred.     

The 20-year history of the evolution of air pollution control legislation in the U.S.A.

Over the past 20 years, the U.S. Congress has passed four acts relating to clean air. The 1970 act set out a comprehensive plan for federal-state partnership to require all areas in the country to meet National Ambient Air Quality Standards. In 1977, the act was amended and expanded, both to address many of the problems encountered in the 1970 act and to reorient the law to limit significantly emissions of any sort, even if there were no currently identified health-related reasons. In 1986, the Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-know Act was passed, as an amendment to a solid waste law, in response to the desire to prevent chemical release tragedies. After 10 years of effort, Congress finally passed the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments which require a number of new programs aimed at curbing urban ozone, rural acid rain, stratospheric ozone, toxic air pollutant emissions and vehicle emissions, and establishing a new, uniform national permit system.This paper discusses some of the consequences of the various acts and suggests ways that others might learn from our 20 years of experience. Certain programs have worked quite well, while some alternatives could have improved other programs.     

我国VOC类有毒空气污染物优先控制对策探讨

VOC污染日趋严重,不仅影响环境空气质量,也能直接损害人体健康,我国亟待完善控制对策.研究了美国有毒空气污染物（HAPs）控制体系,针对我国环境管理的特点,提出VOC类有毒空气污染物优先控制对策,供有关部门参考.美国通过清洁空气法案确定有毒空气污染物重点控制名单,采取区域管理和行业重点源控制促其削减,VOC类化合物是城市地区重点控制对象.我国VOC管理和技术基础相对薄弱,应筛选部分污染物进行优先控制,针对这类污染物组分复杂、行业分布广、区域性和过程性强等特点,逐步开展区域污染调查评估,加强累积性风险评估和环境影响后评价管理,抓好突发事件风险防范.     

基于多目标决策的节能减排绩效评估

利用全排列多边形图示指标法构建评价模型,从资源能源消耗、污染物排放、综合利用、环保治理及无害化等方面构建节能减排评价指标体系,并对福建省2001-2010年节能减排进行绩效评估.结果表明,福建省节能减排绩效的优劣顺序分别为:2010、2009、2003、2002、2008、2007、2004、2001、2006、2005年.2005-2006年福建省在废物综合利用、环保治理及无害化等方面取得了一定的成效,但与2001-2004年相比优势不明显,而在资源能源消耗与污染排放方面却出现了大幅度的下滑.2007年以来,福建省正在逐步加大重点行业和重点企业的节能减排力度,因此,在节能减排方面取得了较明显的成效.评价结果较好地体现了福建省节能减排的现状与不足,为推动节能减排绩效评估工作的发展提供了科学依据.     

Achieving the Kyoto Protocol in the U.S.: How Great are the Needed Changes?

The Kyoto Protocol requires the U.S.to reduce the rate of emissions of six greenhousegases (GHG) to 93% of their 1990 rate and to achievethis target by the 2008 to 2012 commitment period. This study assesses the magnitude of change needed inthe U.S. economy and, specifically, in the U.S. energysector, to achieve and maintain the target establishedby the Kyoto Protocol. A simple carbon (C)emissions-energy model is explained in this analysisusing four key variables. Current and future trendsin C emissions are explained by: the carbon/energy(C/E) ratio, Gross Domestic Product growth, energyprices and an energy trend variable. Potential GHGmitigation policy actions affect C emissionsindirectly by affecting at least one of these keyvariables. The analysis concludes that reducingfossil energy use in the U.S. to meet the Kyoto GHGemissions reduction target would be very costly. Technological progress that reduces C emissions wouldnot be fully sufficient without prematurely abandoningproductive capital equipment. Energy price increasesof about 14% per year, or declines in economic growthof almost 5% per year, could reduce energy demand andassociated C emissions enough to achieve the terms ofthe Kyoto Protocol.     

Regulating carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC): U.S. and California case studies

As lifecycle emissions accounting becomes more widely used in policy, it is important to understand how it has been applied. This paper analyses policy-making for two U.S. fuel regulations—the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)—that were pioneering not only in using life cycle assessment (LCA) in performance-based environmental regulations, but especially for including emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). The case studies in this paper focus, in particular, on the decision to include ILUC in lifecycle emissions accounting. Tracing the development of these policies shows the key role of environmental policy entrepreneurs in advocating for ILUC emissions accounting during policy formulation. Moreover, it highlights a paradox in the use of science: although ILUC policy proponents were motivated by best available research, they were also politically enabled by scientific uncertainty and lack of understanding. Understanding this political dimension of decision-making is valuable for scholars as well as practitioners facing similar decisions.     

Regulatory effectiveness and the long-run policy horizon: The case of U.S. toxic chemical use

This paper employs state-of-the-art time series analysis to examine the long-run economic and institutional drivers of toxic chemical use behavior in the U.S. Toxic chemicals are classified into growth, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), and kinked-growth chemicals, according to their long-run use trend behavior. Cointegration analysis shows that while some toxic chemicals have been successfully reduced by regulatory efforts, a majority of the toxic chemicals used in commercial products share a long-run equilibrium with national accounts and industrial production, suggesting that toxic chemical use has been largely driven by changes in GDP, industrial production, and private R&D investments, rather than by government regulations. Estimated structural break results indicate that the 1986 Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act, which created the Toxic Release Inventory has had impact on the consumptive use of more poisonous industrial chemicals than command-and-control regulations.     

Risk/benefit analysis of prohibition of the mercury electrode process in caustic soda production

This study attempts a risk-benefit analysis of the Japanese government decision of the prohibition of the mercury electrode process used for production of caustic soda in 1973. The reduction in human health risk and the costs incurred due to the decision are evaluated, on the basis of which an implicit value of its benefit-risk (BRR) ratio is estimated. Human health risk is evaluated in terms of loss of life expectancy, which enables us to quantify and compare human health risks, irrespective of cancer or noncancer toxic risks. The value of BRR of the decision is calculated to be 570 million yen, approximately U.S. $5.7 million, per life-year saved. Comparing the BRR values of a couple of other policies enacted or proposed in Japan, ranging from 24 to 45 million yen per life-year saved, its value is very high. This result implies that the decision in study is not cost-effective.     

重庆市农业转型发展的时空演进及问题区识别——基于全要素生产率视角

研究农业全要素生产率时空演进规律对于合理制定农业转型升级政策具有重要意义。在使用DEA-Malmquist指数模型测算出重庆市37个县（区）2000-2016年农业全要素生产率增长的基础上,结合空间分析方法和核密度估计方法考察农业TFP的时空演进特征,并识别出问题区域。研究表明：（1）2000-2016年间重庆市农业全要素生产率呈上升趋势,农业TFP指数呈“U”型和阶段性波动的变化趋势,并且表现出明显的空间不平衡性。（2）农业TFP指数增减趋势与技术进步指数的变化趋势基本一致,技术进步是影响农业全要素生产率的主要因素。（3）从全市来看,农业TFP的核密度曲线不断向右移动,且波峰高度持续上升,波峰形态由“单峰”分布向“多峰”分布转变,说明重庆市农业全要素生产率的地区差距在考察期内呈增大趋势。（4）依据TFP增长、技术进步和技术效率的关联关系,识别出三种类型的问题区域,并针对每类问题区域提出农业转型发展的政策建议。     

经济转型视角下中国工业行业环境全要素生产率及增长动力分析

从工业行业存在技术异质特征出发,在全局DEA分析框架下,应用共同前沿理论的MML生产率指数,测度了2001~2012年我国工业行业环境全要素生产率的动态变化及分解构成,并采用动态GMM估计方法对其增长因素进行分析.结果表明: 2001~2012年36个工业行业的环境全要素生产率年均增长率为2.3%,工业环境全要素生产率的增长主要源于技术进步与规模效率的提升.环境全要素生产率呈现清洁型生产行业、中污染生产行业、污染密集型行业依次递减的发展格局,群组间技术差异整体上呈现缩减趋势;通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业、烟草制品业是推动前沿面扩张的主力行业;增长动力分析显示,工业行业存在投入要素利用的规模经济,工业行业“国退民进”的产权改革与能源结构调整有利于环境全要素生产率的提升,资本深化对环境全要素生产率的提升影响微弱,FDI抑制了环境全要素生产率的增长,行业集中度与环境全要素生产率存在“倒U”型关系,不同群组的技术异质性导致了对环境全要素生产率产生不同影响.     

Managing a forgotten greenhouse gas under existing U.S. law: An interdisciplinary analysis

The United States’ legal strategy for addressing climate change in recent years has relied on authority from existing legislation. This has led to measures on a number of different greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, methane and hydrofluorocarbons. However, one greenhouse gas has been largely forgotten: nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide is the third most abundantly emitted greenhouse gas in the U.S. and worldwide, as well as the largest remaining threat to the stratospheric ozone layer. In addition, the nitrogen atoms in nitrous oxide are part of the highly fluid nitrogen cycle where nitrogen atoms transform readily among different chemical forms, each with a unique environmental and human health impact – a process known as the nitrogen cascade. While the science of the nitrogen cascade has been explored for over a decade, there has been little work on the legal implications of this phenomenon. And yet the nitrogen cascade expands the legal options available for controlling nitrous oxide. This paper studies these options in a U.S. context and explores the environmental and economic impacts of enacting them. We determine that the Clean Air Act, and in particular its broad authority for controlling ozone depleting substances, is the most promising legal pathway for regulating nitrous oxide across all major sources. Invoking such authority could generate significant climate and stratospheric ozone benefits over 2015–2030, equivalent to taking 12 million cars permanently off the road, and 100 million chlorofluorocarbon-laden refrigerators out of service. The economic benefits could sum to over $700 billion over 2015–2030, with every $1.00 spent on abating emissions leading to $4.10 in societal benefits. The bulk of these benefits would come from reductions in other forms of nitrogen pollution such as ammonia and nitrate, highlighting the important and multiple co-benefits that could be achieved by abating nitrous oxide emissions. With the Paris Climate Agreement calling for limiting global temperature increases to “well below” two degrees Celsius, all mitigation opportunities across all sectors need to be considered. This paper suggests that nitrous oxide warrants more attention from policy-makers in the U.S. and around the world.     

北京市生活垃圾处理的温室气体排放变化分析

文章从城市垃圾处理与节能减排之间关系的角度,分析研究了北京市2001～2007年生活垃圾卫生填埋、堆肥和焚烧发展过程中直接和间接的温室气体排放量变化,结果表明,随着生活垃圾产生量的增加和物理组成的变化,北京市生活垃圾处理引起的温室气体排放急剧增多,总排放量从2001年约363万tCO2当量增加到2007年1157万t左右。目前卫生填埋、堆肥和焚烧三种方法每处理1t垃圾的单位排放量分别为2.1t、0.4t和2.0tCO2当量。虽然堆肥具有相对低的单位排放量,但由于市场等方面的原因,堆肥在北京生活垃圾处理中的比重并不大,2007年处理的垃圾量不到无害化总处理量的7%。2007年填埋产生CH4总量约48万t,若50%回收利用,其发热量相当于约40万t管道煤气,具有很大的节能减排潜力。焚烧垃圾进行供热或发电的技术在国内外正蓬勃发展,也是节能减排的有效途径。而加强垃圾回收与分类是从源头减少垃圾,实现节能减排的最好方法。     

不同地区经济增长与环境污染关系的VAR模型分析——基于广州、佛山、肇庆经济圈的实证研究

利用向量自回归(VAR)计量技术对广州.佛山一肇庆(简称"广佛肇")经济圈各城市表征环境污染的指标(工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量和工业固废产生量)和表征经济增长的指标(人均GDP)的时序数据进行脉冲响应函数及预测方差分解分析,研究处于工业化后期的广州、佛山市及工业化前期的肇庆市经济发展与环境污染在时序维度上的关系及其...     

Unemployment effects of climate policy

This paper models the unemployment effects of restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, embodying two of the most significant types of short-term economic imperfections that generate unemployment: sectoral rigidities in labor mobility and sectoral rigidities in wage adjustments. A labor policy is also analyzed that would reduce the direct negative economic effects of the emissions restrictions.The politics of limiting greenhouse gas emissions are often dominated by relatively short-term considerations. Yet the current economic modeling of emissions limitations does not embody economic features that are likely to be particularly important in the short term, in particular, the politically sensitive unemployment rate. Moreover, only a few of these studies also consider policies that would offset the negative direct economic effects of emissions restrictions. For plausible estimates of the parameters, the model shows that, with the labor market imperfections, if there were no offsetting policies, the reductions in GNP in the U.S. in the first 10 years after emissions restrictions were imposed would be as much as 4%. However, if there were two policies, instead of just one: a counteracting labor market policy, as well as the emissions restrictions, the negative direct economic effects could be completely eliminated.     

基于重点行业/领域的我国碳排放达峰路径研究

开展碳排放达峰路径研究,明确时间表、路线图、施工图,是支撑我国实现2030年前碳达峰目标的基础性研究工作. 本文采取自上而下和自下而上相结合的方式,以满足社会经济高质量稳定发展需求和国家碳达峰碳中和双重目标为约束开展自上而下的宏观路径研究;以合计贡献了我国碳排放(不含港澳台地区数据) 90%以上的电力、钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼、石化化工、煤化工共6个重点行业以及建筑、交通2个重点领域为对象,开展自下而上的重点行业/领域碳达峰路径研究;通过上下路径反复迭代、行业间耦合优化,打通宏观路径与微观措施的联动和双向反馈,最终形成基于重点行业/领域的我国碳达峰路径. 结果表明:为实现国家碳达峰、碳中和的目标愿景,需抓紧部署、大力推进包括清洁能源降碳、能效提升降碳、资源循环降碳、管理调控降碳等4类关键举措,方可实现我国碳排放量在2030年前达峰的目标,峰值较2020年增加5.0×108~7.0×108 t左右,达峰后将保持3~4年的峰值平台期. 受需求与技术驱动,不同领域碳排放总量将梯次实现达峰,其中工业领域（含钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼、石化化工、煤化工共5个重点行业）预计将在“十四五”期间整体达峰,达峰后碳排放稳定下降;电力行业和交通、建筑领域碳排放均在2030年左右实现达峰. 经测算,2021—2030年间,为推动碳达峰采取的4类关键措施预计需投入2.08×1013元;其中清洁能源降碳是最为有效的措施,同时也是成本最高的措施. 为保障关键举措顺利落地,建议全面加大政策创新,逐步形成系统完善的碳总量控制与交易市场机制、绿色低碳标准体系、行业准入及产业结构政策体系、价格财税及投融资机制等. 本研究分行业及领域的碳达峰路径研究成果及所识别的关键控碳减碳技术手段、措施和政策将为国家碳达峰路径设计提供技术支撑.      

Aggregation and analysis of volatile organic compound emissions for regional modeling

A general two-step procedure for aggregating the hundreds of reported volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into a much smaller set of lumped classes appropriate for regional airshed modeling is described. In the first step, the compounds are condensed into a manageable number of emission categories which could be adapted to a variety of molecularly-based lumped chemical mechanisms. In the second step, the emissions are further aggregated into a smaller set of VOC classes which directly correspond to those in a particular model's mechanism. The application of this procedure is illustrated by aggregating the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) anthropogenic VOC emissions inventory the U.S. first into the 32-class system, and then into the groups of model species used in the latest version of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM2.0). The importance of different VOC categories and source types on regional pollution production is explored by comparing the contributions of each of the emissions groupings, RADM model species, and major emissions sources, to total moles carbon VOC reacted in model simulations. For this particular anthropogenic inventory and chemical mechanism, it is found that over 50% of the moles carbon reacted is associated with mobile sources. Such analysis can help indicate which uncertainties in anthropogenic emissions inventories may have the greatest impact on results of regional simulations.     

Carbon emissions and management scenarios for consumer-owned utilities

An important subset of the utility sector has been scarcely explored for its ability to reduce carbon dioxide emissions: consumer-owned electric utilities significantly contribute to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, but are often excluded from energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. They sell a quarter of the nation's electricity, yet the carbon impact of these sales is not well understood, due to their small size, unique ownership models, and high percentage of purchased power for distribution. This paper situates consumer-owned utilities in the context of emerging U.S. climate policy, quantifying for the first time the state-by-state carbon impact of electricity sales by consumer-owned utilities. We estimate that total retail sales by consumer-owned utilities account for roughly 568 million metric tons of CO₂ annually, making this sector the 7th largest CO₂ emitter globally, and examine state-level carbon intensities of the sector in light of the current policy environment and the share of COU distribution in the states. Based on efficiency and fuel mix pathways under conceivable regulations, carbon scenarios for 2030 are developed.     

贵州省六冲关流域大气沉降和地表水化学特征

对比贵州六冲关森林小流域1992─1994年和2001─2005年2个时期穿透水沉降(TF)和地表水的化学组成,以分析大气沉降对森林小流域生物地球化学过程的影响. 结果表明:2001─2004年硫沉降量较1992─1994年有显著下降,但自2005年起硫沉降量又显著增加. 六冲关流域无机氮(尤其是NH₄+-N)沉降量较历史时期显著增加,说明贵阳市大气污染正在由硫酸型向硫酸-硝酸混合型过渡. 长期的大气沉降导致地表水中SO₄2-和NO₃-等阴离子质量浓度的增加,加剧了Ca,Mg和K等营养元素的流失,使地表水的酸中和能力在2002年为负值. 长期观测发现,地表水酸中和能力与穿透水中Ca和Mg的沉降通量密切相关,说明大气沉降已经对六冲关流域的相关生物地球化学过程造成了潜在的影响.      

中美两国火电厂NO_X控制政策比较研究

系统地分析了中美两国火电厂NOx的排放现状及排放趋势,以及两国控制火电厂NOx排放的标准及相应的控制政策,在此基础上,总结了美国治理火电厂NOx排放的成功经验,包括政策手段、排放标准、控制目标及控制策略等方面。最后,通过借鉴美国的成功经验,结合中国火电厂目前实施的NOx控制政策,对中国制定火电厂NOx制政策提出了建议。     

Trends analysis of vegetation exposure indices in rural areas of the U.S.

In this work, statistical models based on a linear time term are tested to determine if they can adequately represent the behavior over time of indices that relate vegetation exposure to air pollutants at a large number of monitoring sites in the rural U.S. Three pollutants are addressed: ozone (O₃), sulfur dioxide (SO₂)and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂. The formulations selected to generate the values of the exposure indices were the sum of all hourly average concentrations (SUM0); in addition, for O₃, the sum of all hourly average concentrations weighted with a sigmoidal function, which assigned larger weights to the higher concentrations. The basic hourly average concentration data were selected from routine air monitoring stations of existing networks that met minimum criteria for quality assurance and data completeness. The statistical methodology used was based on a linear regression model which accounted for seasonality and changes in experimental procedures. An additional lag-one autoregressive term was added to the model for those stations which exhibited significant autocorrelation in the data, based on the Durbin-Watson statistic. Long-term analyses included data for 7 to 10 years; short-term analyses included data for 4 to 5 years. Results show that over rural areas of the U.S., these models do not adequately represent the behavior of vegetation exposure indices, both in the long-term and the short-term analyses; the majority of stations did not have statistically significant (5% level) coefficients for the term representing linear dependence on time. Emissions data for SO₂, NO_x and volatile organic compounds (VOC) over the same time period are also presented. Over the contiguous U.S., emissions between 1979 and 1987 have decreased by a maximum of 3%; emission changes for individual states have generally decreased between 1979 and 1987, but between 1983 and 1987 both increases and decreases have occurred.